gunDriller
6th June 2011, 10:07 AM
I am referring to reports like this one -
http://www.cftc.gov/files/dea/cotarchives/2011/futures/other_lf042611.htm
That report from the last week in April was a key report - there was a 10% reduction in short positions (10% is a LOT) that preceded the drop in prices which occurred the following week.
I am observing that in a bull market, a major contraction in short positions is a strong indicator of both a time to sell, and a buying opportunity ahead.
You can get the CoT report from the CFTC website -
http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/HistoricalViewable/index.htm
but if you watch that page, you will notice that it is always about 2 weeks behind.
Anyway, I noticed that you can sometimes obtain the report early by just typing in the URL.
Procedure -
1/ First you open up the web page for the most recent report that has a link on the main page, e.g.
http://www.cftc.gov/files/dea/cotarchives/2011/options/other_lof052411.htm
2/ Then you modify the URL, add 7 to the date, adjust for the date if there is a month's end -
http://www.cftc.gov/files/dea/cotarchives/2011/options/other_lof053111.htm
TaDaa ! That page is up but there is no link to it, it's Monday morning, Harvey won't put it up till next Saturday.
Sometimes the actual CoT page will "go live" before the link appears on the CFTC page, and several days before it is digested & presented on Harvey Organ's page.
http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/
It is interesting to go back & look at Harvey's archives, to see what CoT conditions existed just before & during major price moves.
http://www.cftc.gov/files/dea/cotarchives/2011/futures/other_lf042611.htm
That report from the last week in April was a key report - there was a 10% reduction in short positions (10% is a LOT) that preceded the drop in prices which occurred the following week.
I am observing that in a bull market, a major contraction in short positions is a strong indicator of both a time to sell, and a buying opportunity ahead.
You can get the CoT report from the CFTC website -
http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/HistoricalViewable/index.htm
but if you watch that page, you will notice that it is always about 2 weeks behind.
Anyway, I noticed that you can sometimes obtain the report early by just typing in the URL.
Procedure -
1/ First you open up the web page for the most recent report that has a link on the main page, e.g.
http://www.cftc.gov/files/dea/cotarchives/2011/options/other_lof052411.htm
2/ Then you modify the URL, add 7 to the date, adjust for the date if there is a month's end -
http://www.cftc.gov/files/dea/cotarchives/2011/options/other_lof053111.htm
TaDaa ! That page is up but there is no link to it, it's Monday morning, Harvey won't put it up till next Saturday.
Sometimes the actual CoT page will "go live" before the link appears on the CFTC page, and several days before it is digested & presented on Harvey Organ's page.
http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/
It is interesting to go back & look at Harvey's archives, to see what CoT conditions existed just before & during major price moves.