Silver up $2.15? Wowwwwwwwww

[Ponce]

Maybe if I go back to bed and get up once again silver wiil go up once again?

First post of the day.........good morning to one and all.

[zap]

LOL Ponce, How is your hand ? and good morning to you.:)

[Ponce]

Going to the VA today to removed the stiches and make appointment for rehab...thanks for asking.

[Plastic]

BLEH!!! I was waiting for 28.00 before buying again... Guess this is as good an excuse as any to take what I was saving for silver and buy more beans / rice / TP for storage.

Glad the hand is healing up.

[Serpo]

James Turk: just “several more days of silver in the 30s”
Posted by Dominique de Kevelioc de Bailleul on Jul 13, 2011

With silver and gold rallying strongly against the tide of the risk-off trade, bullion expert James Turk forecasts that silver is about to launch into the 40s, as more nervous investors come to terms with the inevitability of further devaluations and/or sovereign defaults, forced upon the world’s central banks by investors and weak politicians.

“One never knows exactly how the markets will unfold, but my sense is that we only have several more days of silver in the 30s,” Turk told King World News. “Once silver clears $38 on a closing basis, you are going to get back into the mid 40s in a heartbeat.”

Turk, the founder and president of overseas precious metals storage firm Goldmoney.com has warned long ago of the events playing out in Europe today, so his words carry significant weight among the bullion community. The timing of his call back in January for silver to reach $50 by June 30 was considered reckless and daring at the time. But history has proved him correct. Silver reached an intraday high of $49.70 on May 2, just pennies shy of $50 and a month sooner than he expected.

Recently, Turk (along with another PM giant, Jim Sinclair) has differed with another hard-money advocate, Marc Faber, on the direction of precious metals prices during the months of July and August. Faber expects the precious metals to meander in the hot summer months, which is a bet that the long-standing historical record of weakness during that time is most likely. On the other hand, Turk anticipates a repeat of 1982, the year of the Mexican peso devaluations.

“The action in gold and silver so far this summer indicates to me that this is in fact poised to be explosive on the upside,” Turk explaind. “Nobody is talking about this, but it could be a reality in short order. Here it is nearly 30 years after the breathtaking summer of 1982, and history is about to repeat all over again.”

http://www.jsmineset.com/

[Serpo]

http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/clip_image0028.jpg

[Neuro]

James Turk is most likely right that Silver will remain in the 30's a few more days, when the debt ceiling is lifted it will go down in the 20's!

[Serpo]

James Turk is most likely right that Silver will remain in the 30's a few more days, when the debt ceiling is lifted it will go down in the 20's!

Fact is at the moment I would love nothing more as awaiting funds to back up mini van, but alas it dosnt seem to be the case

[Serpo]

Wednesday, July 13, 2011
COMEX Commercial Traders Positioning for Silver Strength

HOUSTON – Picking up where we left off on Tuesday, July 12, when we highlighted very tight supply of commercial sized silver bar stocks as one of two key indicators we believe short sellers of silver and silver ETFs ought to strongly consider (and perhaps be concerned about). We noted in that offering that there were two important factors which suggested to us that silver may be merely catching its breath rather than what is usually expected of it following a broken parabolic peak.

These two powerful indicators are suggesting that instead of a parabolic collapse, silver might instead be in the midst of “the mother of all mid-point consolidations.”

The second indicator is just as important as, and we think gives cover, or rather, confirms the first. The second important factor is that the largest of the largest commercial traders of silver futures are near bull market lows in terms of their collective net short positioning following silver’s harsh margin-hike-influenced 30%-plus pullback in May-June.

Consider the graph below as the focus of this second installment of our ‘silver short seller public service announcement for July.’

20110713LCNSsilver

COMEX large commercial net short positioning (LCNS), nominal, since 2007. Measures the net position of both long and short contracts held by COMEX commercial traders, including bullion banks, producers, users and large dealers. If any of the images are too small click on the top of them for a larger popup version.

Continued…
***Page***

Now please, check one’s bias at the door for a moment and simply allow the above chart to ‘speak’ for itself. The blue line represents the nominal amount of net short positioning in COMEX contracts for traders the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) classes as “Commercial” in its weekly recap of large trader positioning in New York futures. That Commitments of Traders or COT report is useful to determine how the largest futures traders are currently positioned, but more importantly, when closely followed, the report reveals oversized changes in that positioning and other trading anomalies. The pink colored line is the Cash Market price of silver as of the COT reporting cutoff each week.

At Got Gold Report, we follow this government-issue report closely and report on it biweekly to Vultures (Got Gold Report Subscribers) more in depth than we intend to do with this public notice today. The simple issue we wish to call to everyone’s attention is the graph above paints a very strongly bullish picture if we consider the following attributes in isolation.

Lows for the silver LCNS near the lower portion of the graph are nearly always associated with lows for silver. (See if one can find any exception to that notion.)
Silver shows a strong tendency to rally significantly following LCNS extreme lows. • Since at least October of 2010, COMEX commercials have shown a tendency to reduce their net short positioning – they reduced net shorts as silver powered higher, and accelerated that process as it fell precipitously. Commercials want to ‘get smaller’ in the silver net short department.
COMEX commercials position for what they believe the conditions favor, what the price will do three to nine months forward – positioning for silver weakness by adding to net short positions – for silver strength by reducing net short positions.

Every once in a while the COT report is so dramatic or it shows something so unusual that it strikes us as urgent news for our valued readership. That was the case on Friday, July 1, 2011, when we issued an important update on this free web log.

Kindly indulge us for a moment to reprint the closing portion of that comment of nearly two weeks ago.

For whatever reasons, the largest hedgers and short sellers of gold and silver futures have used the recent declines in the price of gold and silver to get a great deal “smaller” in their net short bets – and in a New York hurry as evidenced in the very important graphs shown.

Most anything can happen over the very short term, but historically very large, abrupt changes in commercial net short positioning have been like klaxons sounding for experienced traders to “get to battle stations.” These are indeed just the kind of very large changes of which we speak.

For silver specifically, the very low level of commercial net short positioning suggests that the Big Sellers of silver futures are not at all confident in lower silver prices just ahead. Notice that as the LCNS:TO reached the lowest levels on the graph above it almost always coincided with lows in the price of silver or very near them.

We certainly cannot say that the Big Sellers of silver futures are positioning as though THEY think that silver is set to plunge further - to the contrary. The Big Sellers are net buyers here - at a pretty fast clip, not net sellers.

Be sure to view the excellent commentary on silver by Eric Sprott and Andrew Morris linked in the VultureInReview section immediately to the right of this post on the Home page of the web log. It is indeed worthwhile in our opinion.

As we communicated to Vultures in our last full report, we viewed the COT setup this time as very strongly bullish for both gold and silver – especially so for silver for all the reasons we cited then.

Yesterday, we also noted that September COMEX silver was trading in a tightening wedge. We’d suggest that those who might favor the short side of silver also consider that post too, although it might have been better had they done so then.

How interesting that silver is now threatening to break out of that wedge as we send this off to be posted. Silver is currently thrusting above the $38 battle line as we do, up nearly $2.00 from yesterday’s New York last trade. We’d bet some of that rise today are people who thought they had a pretty good short bet down on silver, having a market-induced change of mind.

The bottom line: Very large, seasoned professional futures traders that should absolutely know if commercial supplies of silver are indeed tight are positioning as though they believe with certainty that is so. Short silver at one’s peril in light of these compelling indicators.

http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2011/07/-comex-commercial-traders-positioning-for-silver-strength.html



also.............http://www.gata.org/files/Sprott-CaveatVenditor-06-2011.pdf

[1970 silver art]

YAWN!!!!!!!............................When (not if) the debt ceiling gets raised before Aug. 2, then this recent silver movement will be short-lived and it will begin another leg down. The dog and pony show that is currently going on in Washington D.C. is just a bunch of BS to force Congress to raise the debt ceiling. Silver will probably get close to $40 before it gets smacked down.

Debt ceiling = UP, Silver = DOWN.

[Mouse]

Maybe I am getting to be retarded here, but how is Debt=Up mean Silver=Down?

If I am expecting the debt limit to not be raised (which it of course will), would I not expect a huge deflationary spiral, and thence the selling of PM's and their reduced FRN value?

If I am expecting the debt limit to be raised, would I not expect inflation and debasement as usual, and thence the purchasing of PM's and their increased FRN value?

Not to even mention the fraying of the rope holding fiat empire together internationally. The EURO is crap, the Dollar is crap, the JPY is crap. It's nothing but inflation here on out. I don't see what the play is that would cause PM's to tank? I don't really care as I am not actively trading, but I just don't see the reasoning.

[joboo]

^ That's what I'm thinking.

It's like saying "hey let's press the gas pedal even harder as we head towards the cliff"

Then everyone takes off their seat belts...???

[Serpo]

Maybe I am getting to be retarded here, but how is Debt=Up mean Silver=Down?

If I am expecting the debt limit to not be raised (which it of course will), would I not expect a huge deflationary spiral, and thence the selling of PM's and their reduced FRN value?

If I am expecting the debt limit to be raised, would I not expect inflation and debasement as usual, and thence the purchasing of PM's and their increased FRN value?

Not to even mention the fraying of the rope holding fiat empire together internationally. The EURO is crap, the Dollar is crap, the JPY is crap. It's nothing but inflation here on out. I don't see what the play is that would cause PM's to tank? I don't really care as I am not actively trading, but I just don't see the reasoning.

Hes got 3 rolls of TP riding on this................

[Neuro]

Maybe I am getting to be retarded here, but how is Debt=Up mean Silver=Down?

If I am expecting the debt limit to not be raised (which it of course will), would I not expect a huge deflationary spiral, and thence the selling of PM's and their reduced FRN value?

If I am expecting the debt limit to be raised, would I not expect inflation and debasement as usual, and thence the purchasing of PM's and their increased FRN value?

Not to even mention the fraying of the rope holding fiat empire together internationally. The EURO is crap, the Dollar is crap, the JPY is crap. It's nothing but inflation here on out. I don't see what

the play is that would cause PM's to tank? I don't really care as I am not actively trading, but I just don't see the reasoning.Inflation is caused by an abundance of money. Raising the debt limit without a corresponding increase in money supply, will take money from the market. Less liquid markets means down. Now we are in an extreme situation, where the Treasury needs to borrow aproximately half a trillion in short order and the Federal Reserve bank has promised on their mothers grave not to do any monetary easing.

Creating more money is inflationary! Borrowing from a fixed pool of money is deflationary...

[Joe King]

Me sees $39.23 right now. :o

Movin' on up.....again.

[1970 silver art]

Mouse,

In the long term, you are right. I am not disagreeing with you. What I meant is that once the debt ceiling gets raised before Aug. 2, it would bring silver (and gold) down. Raising the debt ceiling just means that a "crisis" was averted. Of couse the "crisis" was not averted but it was delayed once again. The paper markets will see the raising of the debt ceiling as a "sigh of relief" and gold and silver will get dumped as a result.

Just watch, once an agreement is reached on spending cuts and the debt ceiling gets raised before Aug. 2, just see how far silver goes down from the day that an agreement was reached.

Mouse, also keep in mind that I am short-term bearish (2011 only) on silver but I am long term bullish on silver because of the reasons that you mentioned in your post.

I still think that there is more downside left to go on silver in 2011. I still think that silver will bottom out at around $26. I do not see it going lower than that for this year. After 2011, silver (and gold) will continue to go up because of the reasons that you mentioned. The long term negative fundamentals will eventually overcome any JPM led artificial manipulation in the long run and as a result, silver (and gold) will win the "war". That is my take on this.