Rogers has stopped buying gold now

[mick silver]

http://www.moneytalks.net/daily-updates/5658-jim-rogers-stop-buying-gold-now-buy.html ... Written by Rob Zurrer for MoneyTalks.net Friday, 05 August 2011 00:00 Jim Rogers is good at what he does. Really good. This masterful investor co-founded with George Soros the Quantum Fund. A fund that posted astonishing returns of 4200% in 10 years, over the same period the S&P gained a mere 47%. Rogers retired 31 years ago in 1980 at the age of 37 but is still active as a private investor.

Clearly one of the most successful investors of all-time, Rogers buys value. Accordingly in 1999, he predicted a "Supercycle" (http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Gold-drives-commodities-super-cycle-25244-3-1.html) commodity bull market, raw material prices advancing for longer than in any previous uptrend led by gold and silver. At that time gold was trading near is low at $252, the lowest real price in nearly a 100 years, and silver at $4 the lowest real price in 5000 years (http://goldinfo.net/silver600.html).
Click on the Chart "The real price of gold 1344-1988" for a larger image.
http://www.moneytalks.net/images/stories/July_19/July_1511/600yeargold.gif (http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/long-term-gold.jpg)
With gold up 650% from its lows and silver with an even greater gain..... obviously Rogers was right.
Rogers has stopped buying gold now (http://jimrogers1.blogspot.com/). "I wouldn't buy more gold and silver right now" "I don't like to jump on a moving bus". That doesn't mean Rogers is selling, he still believes that "gold is certainly going to go to $2,000 over the years; it looks like it's going to go much higher during the course of the bull market,". Even after soaring to an all-time high of $1678.25 (http://www.prisonplanet.com/spot-gold-soars-to-all-time-high-of-1678-5.html) on August 4th/2011, Rogers thinks"gold prices are not in a bubble (http://goldsilver.com/news/jim-rogers-gold-price-is-not-in-a-bubble/) because not everyone is buying yet". Right now Rogers is moving towards a greater commodity opportunity that he thinks offers the same kind of values that gold and silver did a decade ago.
Agriculture: The Next Big Bull Market

Consistent with his devotion to buying undervalued assets, he now sees the same quality of values in agriculture that he saw in gold and silver. No, he's not selling his gold and silver but he is predicting that (http://jimrogers-blog.blogspot.com/)"Agriculture prices are still, on a historic basis, extremely depressed, and in my view I'll probably make more money in agriculture than other things".
Rogers thinks that the current commodities supercycle will last for 20 to 25 years, a view supported by the research of Chris Watling of Longview Economics. Whatling traced secular bull cycles back to 1750 (http://www.longvieweconomics.co.uk/news_detail.php?nid=73) and identified that commodity super cycles last 20 to 25 years. As this commodity bull started in 2000, if Whatling and Rogers are correct this bull will run higher until 2020-2025.
In short, if you missed buying gold and silver at extremely depressed levels, if you missed participating in what Peter Grandich calls The Mother of all Bull Markets (http://www.moneytalks.net/daily-updates/5563-the-mother-of-all-bull-markets.html), Rogers thinks you have another great chance to buy into an imminent bull market at great value:
http://www.moneytalks.net/images/stories/July_19/July_1511/food_vs_gold.png

Its about demand and low historical prices. "If the fundamentals weren't right the price would not go up. Many people invested in commodities in the 1980s and 90s and didn't make any money because the fundamentals were bad, now people are investing and making money because the fundamentals are good"Rogers Said (http://jimrogers1.blogspot.com/2010/06/jim-rogers-commodity-bull-market-will.html). There is a powerful underlying demand for food. When food prices surged in 2007 millions went hungry, and there were riots from Egypt to Haiti and Cameroon to Bangladesh. Rioting calmed down in 2008 prices when prices dropped but starting at the beginning of 2009 they’ve been going up and Rogersexpects (http://m.theaustralian.com.au/BusinessBreakingNews/pg/0/fi317899.htm)"more turmoil, but I didn't expect it to happen this quickly because food prices are somewhat depressed". Clearly a bull market rise from current levels will cause even more starvation, riots and urgent demand.

http://www.moneytalks.net/images/stories/July_19/July_1511/latest_FAO_food_price_index_.jpg

The FAO Food Price Index measures the prices of Dairy, Oils & Fats, Cereals Sugar & Meat

On the longer term chart real food prices were more expensive in 1917 than they are here today. Demand is there. Agriculture will be "wildly exciting" as global food shortages worsen, according to Rogers. "You pick an agriculture product and I'll say buy it,"he said (http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2011/08/03/bloomberg1376-LPDKEL6JIJVD01-4M7GV0RL7SE8VBDUHL81QD5K2R.DTL). Shortages are showing up right now as the world population has more than doubled from 3 billion in 1960 while the amount of arable farmland has been decreasing. If world population rises from its current 6.8 billion to 9.1 billion by 2050 as the United Nations forecasts, a lot of people are going to be scrambling for food.
Click on the 1900-2008 FAO Food Chart for a Larger Image
http://www.moneytalks.net/images/stories/July_19/July_1511/1900-2008.jpg (http://maps.grida.no/library/files/fao-food-price-index-ffpi_005.jpg)
What to Invest In to Take Advantage


Good advice from Daniel Keirnan in his article "Farmland Investment, the next big Portfolio (http://www.alternativeoutlook.co.uk/2011/06/farmland-investment-the-next-big-portfoilo/)"

The question is what are the best ways for making money from the agricultural sector? One way is to invest directly into agriculture stocks such as farm equipment maker John Deere (DE), global seed giant Monsanto (MON) or fertilizer company Potash Corp of Saskatchewan (POT).

Another method is to invest in agricultural futures through Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) such as AIGA on the London Stock Exchange or DBC in the US which tracks an entire basket of agricultural commodities including corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, sugar, coffee, cattle and pigs. These commodities ETFs try to track the spot price of the various commodities they include.
The advantage of these stocks or ETFs is that they are easily trade-able by anyone who has an online brokerage account. The disadvantage, however, is that they are still financial instruments, and as such can fluctuate widely in price.

One option most individual investors tend to overlook is direct investment in farmland. In many ways, a farmland investment is more secure, stable and tangible then putting money into stocks.

Farmland investments for individuals will pay a regular yearly dividend from the sale of crops, and also provide the opportunity for long-term capital gains as farmland increases in value during a bull market in Food.
Don't buy Gold now. Rogers says food and agriculture are great values and will be the next big demand driven bull market.

[steyr_m]

I find that post very interesting. I wonder what happened around 1540 to make the value of gold plunge..

[Ares]

I find that post very interesting. I wonder what happened around 1540 to make the value of gold plunge..

The raping of central and south America by the Spanish?

[Large Sarge]

Rogers is a shill

He was telling folks to buy silver at $47, and after 2 margin hikes

10 years into this market, he still calls it a commodity bull market, and not what it really is "a worldwide monetary crisis"

never recommends gold and silver, and never tells people gold and silver the only real money in today's world

If he is telling folks not to buy gold, we probably have a huge move up in gold coming, $2000 before christmas...

also, what you need to realize, is that when you get as big as jimmy rogers, you have to create some of the market (to unload something: create demand) or you have to bad mouth the market, to increase your position cheaply...

I do not listen to anything he says, how can someone be this far into a monetary crisis, and still refer to it as a commodity bull market, and urge people to buy corn, oats, wheat, etc

[Cebu_4_2]

I find that post very interesting. I wonder what happened around 1540 to make the value of gold plunge..

That was the first time we killed Osama.

[Twisted Titan]

I never knew that rogers was a cohort of soros

rogers is nothing but a cooling value to keep suckers in the. paper game.

The only safe bet is physical

[osoab]

I find that post very interesting. I wonder what happened around 1540 to make the value of gold plunge..

Look at the chart again, it says that it is the "real price" of Au. The spike coincides with 1980. That would make you answer 20%+ interest rates.
ie, Paul Volker.

Edit, I am using the dollar "valuation" not the date of 1540.

[osoab]

Rogers is a shill

He was telling folks to buy silver at $47, and after 2 margin hikes

10 years into this market, he still calls it a commodity bull market, and not what it really is "a worldwide monetary crisis"

never recommends gold and silver, and never tells people gold and silver the only real money in today's world

If he is telling folks not to buy gold, we probably have a huge move up in gold coming, $2000 before christmas...

also, what you need to realize, is that when you get as big as jimmy rogers, you have to create some of the market (to unload something: create demand) or you have to bad mouth the market, to increase your position cheaply...

I do not listen to anything he says, how can someone be this far into a monetary crisis, and still refer to it as a commodity bull market, and urge people to buy corn, oats, wheat, etc


I agree on all your points, except about listening to the guy.

A billionaire is a market maker, stooge or not. His vids about how the debt will kill all governments is a good piece to show to sheep. They are more apt to listen to a dude with boatloads of dough.

By listening to him, we may get a reading on where he/TPTB is wanting the market to go.
Listening to what the sheep are being fed, is not necessarily the a bad thing.

I always like the buy farmland vids too.

[LuckyStrike]

I think Rogers is an astute investor and he has had many accurate calls over the few years I've been watching his interviews. That being said RJI (http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:RJI) RJN (http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ARJN) and RJZ (http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ARJZ) have been terrible performers when the underyling assets have been stellar. I don't understand how in RJZ which is the metals ETN, how gold has more than doubled and silver tripled since RJZ opened yet it's still negative returns for over 3 years now. I know there are more metals than gold and silver but other than Nat Gas and recently Uranium I can't think of any commodities that have gone down from 2008.

[Sparky]

I think Rogers is an astute investor and he has had many accurate calls over the few years I've been watching his interviews. That being said RJI (http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:RJI) RJN (http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ARJN) and RJZ (http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ARJZ) have been terrible performers when the underyling assets have been stellar. I don't understand how in RJZ which is the metals ETN, how gold has more than doubled and silver tripled since RJZ opened yet it's still negative returns for over 3 years now. I know there are more metals than gold and silver but other than Nat Gas and recently Uranium I can't think of any commodities that have gone down from 2008.

RJZ has gone from $5 to $13. Why do you say it's still negative returns?

[Sparky]

I think Rogers is spot on. He's basically been saying the same thing that everyone here has been saying. Buy hard assets, including farmland and metals, and commodity-based paper instruments, and beware other paper investments and the U.S. dollar in general.

He's probably stopped buying gold because most of the return has occurred, and he has found preferred investments. If he bought gold at $300, his return is up 5x. I think he's saying there are now other things (agriculture) that are more likely to go up 5x from here. I agree, I think there's a better chance agriculture will go up 5x from here than gold going 5x again to $8300.

He's not saying gold won't go up, or that you shouldn't have it. He's saying he's already bought enough, at a much lower price. I don't know why he's getting so much grief here.

[osoab]

I think Rogers is spot on. He's basically been saying the same thing that everyone here has been saying. Buy hard assets, including farmland and metals, and commodity-based paper instruments, and beware other paper investments and the U.S. dollar in general.

He's probably stopped buying gold because most of the return has occurred, and he has found preferred investments. If he bought gold at $300, his return is up 5x. I think he's saying there are now other things (agriculture) that are more likely to go up 5x from here. I agree, I think there's a better chance agriculture will go up 5x from here than gold going 5x again to $8300.

He's not saying gold won't go up, or that you shouldn't have it. He's saying he's already bought enough, at a much lower price. I don't know why he's getting so much grief here.


I disagree on ag farmland. It's running between 7,000 and 10,000 an acre around my area. If it might someday be turned into commercial development, then you could probably double the above numbers.

Farmland going 5x from these levels? It is already stratospheric, if you are going into debt to purchase it. It is unattainable for the little guy now.
The returns as cropland are not there to support these prices.

[Neuro]

I disagree on ag farmland. It's running between 7,000 and 10,000 an acre around my area. If it might someday be turned into commercial development, then you could probably double the above numbers.

Farmland going 5x from these levels? It is already stratospheric, if you are going into debt to purchase it. It is unattainable for the little guy now.
The returns as cropland are not there to support these prices.
At $10.000 an acre China could buy 300 million acres with its sovereign investment fund. That is about an acre per American...

[Neuro]

At $10.000 an acre China could buy 300 million acres with its sovereign investment fund. That is about an acre per American...

Just checked up the statistics...

http://www.ers.usda.gov/statefacts/US.htm

It represents practically all harvested croplands in the US...

309 million acres in 2007...

[LuckyStrike]

RJZ has gone from $5 to $13. Why do you say it's still negative returns?

I misspoke, it is up 20 percent while the other 2 are down nearly 40% and the other nearly 10%.

[Large Sarge]

Rogers states he is not buying gold, and what a day later the S & P does the first downgrade on the U.S. credit rating in 94 years

Rogers is smart, and he is also smart enough not to give away valuable info for free.

so if you are reading that above, and you have not paid for it, well what is it worth to you?

I stand by my assertion, rogers talking down gold means Major upleg in progress, $2000 by christmas....

and all those folks who listened to jimmy about not hopping on a moving bus, will miss a 20%++ move up...

[mick silver]

i dont trust roger and his gang of buds . something big is up .

[steyr_m]

The raping of central and south America by the Spanish?

Yeah, I was thinking that too; but the European population would be much [exponentially] higher in the early 20th than in the mid-16th Century, so the price should have gone up.

[mick silver]

chart ................