making a prediction here

[Large Sarge]

I have been thinking on this for awhile.....

and I am going to say that this whole bull market in gold gets going faster (ends quicker) than expected.

I am basing this on being in the information age, versus the industrial age.

the information age is about people waking up....

So Sinclair, James Turk, and others all say 2015 or so.

I am saying that is way to out in the future.

I am saying this thing is done by 2014, at the latest, and maybe 2013

its just a numbers game, and information is the commodity today, not industry.

plus, the classic mania stage lasts 20% of the time frame, and makes 80% of the market move up.

so if we figure $12,000 for the top in gold (sinclair and others)

1/5 of $12,500 = $2500 = the first 20% of the price move and the first 80% of the time (2001 - 2011 = 10 years)

(J.P. Morgan is predicting $2500 gold by christmas)

4/5 of the price move = $10,000 and 1/5 of the time frame = (1/5 of 10 years = 2 years) = 2013

so my theory is we have 2.5 years left on this thing

[chad]

you'll know it's close to over when we see $100 a day swings. currently, 1/3 of the way there at routine $30 swings.

[Hatha Sunahara]

LS--I think your prediction includes an assumption that the US Government will fix its overspending problem, and will stop QE printing of money--by 2013. I am far less optimistic about that. I doubt that the US Government will ever fix its overspending problem or its unfunded liabilities problem. We will likely have an NWO global government before anything gets fixed. As the dollar becomes worthless, all the other fiat currencies will become worthless, and people will be looking for a stable global currency. That will be backed by gold. The price of gold will be denominated in that currency.

Your prediction also includes an assumption that the value of the dollar will stop its slide, and recover to some degree. I disagree with that. If you assume that the dollar is toast, and will never recover, then endlessly increasing prices of gold denominated in dollars is what is in store for us. The price of gold will only stabilize or drop when the US Government is dead and gone and just a distant memory.


Hatha

[Large Sarge]

http://socioecohistory.wordpress.com/2011/08/17/lindsey-williams-gold-silver-will-go-through-the-roof-the-euro-will-collapse-first/

once greece defaults, its a domino action, and the euro will collapse...

once the euro collapses you have days, maybe weeks until the dollar collapses

[Sparky]

I agree with the first half of Hatha's statement, that a top won't occur until crisis-action is taken. I think 2013 is the earliest possible date to see such action. I think anything in the 2013-2017 time frame is reasonable.

I disagree with the second half. The dollar will not collapse during this generational wave. The reason for this is that fiat currency valuation is all relative, and our fiat is backed by far more resources than any other currency, namely our military, our natural resources, our intellectual capital, and our civility. As Greece moves toward default, and Europe and the euro flounder, it brings renewed strength to the dollar.

So the near-term fate of the dollar (i.e. the next 10-20 years) is a substantial decrease in domestic buying power, perhaps by a factor of two. Expect $10 gasoline and $3,200 gold. But that is not a collapse in my book. A collapse is when they won't accept dollars for gasoline or gold. If that is ultimately the fate of all fiat currency, the dollar will be the last to go, and it would be several decades away.

[k-os]

I agree with the first half of Hatha's statement, that a top won't occur until crisis-action is taken. I think 2013 is the earliest possible date to see such action. I think anything in the 2013-2017 time frame is reasonable.

I disagree with the second half. The dollar will not collapse during this generational wave. The reason for this is that fiat currency valuation is all relative, and our fiat is backed by far more resources than any other currency, namely our military, our natural resources, our intellectual capital, and our civility. As Greece moves toward default, and Europe and the euro flounder, it brings renewed strength to the dollar.

So the near-term fate of the dollar (i.e. the next 10-20 years) is a substantial decrease in domestic buying power, perhaps by a factor of two. Expect $10 gasoline and $3,200 gold. But that is not a collapse in my book. A collapse is when they won't accept dollars for gasoline or gold. If that is ultimately the fate of all fiat currency, the dollar will be the last to go, and it would be several decades away.

I am still amazed and soothed by your optimism. <3

[Large Sarge]

I am still amazed and soothed by your optimism. <3


Welcome Back ms K-Os!

Glad to see you friend!

[Spectrism]

I agree with the original premise that time is shortened by speed of knowledge. The anticipation of change greases the skids for faster change. I also agree, that some are too optimisitic. I would divide your estimates of timing by 10. If we are still around at the end of 2013, we will be seeing such radical changes in lifestyle that it will be a different world... maybe a new stone age with microprocessers all over the place.

[Sparky]

So this thread got me to thinking about "going parabolic", and I tinkered around with some numbers. (You're back just in time for the math lesson K!)

So parabolic means following a higher-order polynomial, where the simplest is 2nd order, e.g. x**2 (x squared). Excel will do best-fit polynomials up to the 6th order (x**6, or x to the 6th power).

The hard part about knowing when we'll really "go parabolic" is that we've really been on a parabolic curve for most of the decade. But with each leg up, it makes the previous part of the parabola look like an insignificant blip.

Take a look at the 1970's gold bull, excluding the final 9-month blow-off. I've overlaid a 3rd and a 6th order polynomial. The whole trend is kind of wavy and sloppy:

772

The next plot adds the blow-off 9 months. Because the entire curve is not very well-behaved, both curves essentially capture the blowoff:

773

Now take a look at how beautifully well-behaved this parabolic current bull has been since it began in April 2001:

774

If we extrapolate out both curves, we get very different solutions. Problem is, I can't achieve Large Sarge's projection ($12,000 by 2013) using a 6th order polynomial! My projection has always been $3200, some time between 2013-2017, which is reasonably represented by the 3rd order curve.

775

So if Sarge's prediction is correct, we're going to need a whopping move, and real fast, i.e. exceeding that seen on the green curve. We're going to need to break $2000 the end of this year, and busting $2500 before next summer. Tall order, but it could happen. So 9 months from now, we should have a clue as to whether Sarge's prediction is holding water. Until then, I'll stick with $3200 in 2014-2015.

[Spectrism]

Plotting curves based on past experience is like driving your car by ONLY looking in the rearview mirror. In the old days (10+years ago) you could plot things out and technically arrive at good guesses. Now, there are no rules that the manipulators follow. Even our politicians are above the law.

Think about this scenario and see if this affects the technical analysis. The stocks crash. The economy completely shuts down. Businesses have no money to make any moves and banks are stagnated with no lending. Riots go uber-violent in all cities. Signs of starvation appear amid the general chaos. The federal reserve prints money to provide a defibrilator shock to the flatlined economy. Money starts to flow into the streets in attempts to get food and energy to the commoners. The upper classes see that influx of money as hyperinflation. Precious commodities rise in a sudden spike.

[Canadian-guerilla]

http://socioecohistory.wordpress.com/2011/08/17/lindsey-williams-gold-silver-will-go-through-the-roof-the-euro-will-collapse-first/

once greece defaults, its a domino action, and the euro will collapse...

once the euro collapses you have days, maybe weeks until the dollar collapses

i think you're being generous with " days, maybe weeks "

in todays information/internet age, i believe we could see an " around the world " collapse in 24 hours