Greek 1 yr bond sitting at 96.95% yield currently.

[osoab]

Anyone holding? Should hit 100% by morning.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GGGB1YR:IND

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?h=200&w=280&range=1y&type=gp_line&cfg=BQuoteComp_10.xml&ticks=GGGB1YR%3AIND&img=png



Value 96.95
Change 8.468 (9.570%) Open 83.88 High 96.95 Low 81.41

[platinumdude]

I think I might buy $20k worth. Cash out in a year and have about $40k.

[osoab]

What happens if they default?

[platinumdude]

I'm hoping for a bailout.

[Twisted Titan]

Wait wait

You mean they are offering 95% interest if you loan them,money?

Am I making correct stament?

[osoab]

I'm hoping for a bailout.

They are working on bailout #3 in about 6 month time span or less. By this time next year they will be up to the 18-24th edition of "Bailout Greece".

[vacuum]

Wait wait

You mean they are offering 95% interest if you loan them,money?

Am I making correct stament?
Right. Buy their debt and in 1 year they'll give you double your money back.

[Sparky]

Right. Buy their debt and in 1 year they'll give you double your money back.

This is such a paradox. You only get your money back if they don't default within a year. So somehow they have to avoid default of their seemingly insurmountable debt, while paying investors a rate of 100%. Insane. They say the bond market speaks the truth.

[Twisted Titan]

So what happened to the bonds that were issued before this one?

Did they make good on them or were they converted to something else by a govermental decree?

[Joe King]

So what happened to the bonds that were issued before this one?

Did they make good on them or were they converted to something else by a govermental decree?
What do you mean, what happened to them?
If they're not due yet they're still out there being held by someone/thing and if they haven't actually defaulted, any that were due were either paid off or rolled over.

[undgrd]

So basically you need at least 2 more Greek bailouts to buy into this.

You need one right now so they don't burn the place down. It needs to be able to sustain the Greeks until it's time to pay your Bond in 1 year.

You need a second one in a year to guarantee they'll be able to pay your bond.

[Neuro]

A third option between default and getting back double is possible. You may get paid back in a heavily devalued greek drachma calculated at the rate they converted to Euro 10 years or so ago. I think this may be the likeliest scenario. Soon Germany, Holland, Finland will put the ultimatum to ECB, them or us. ECB choosing them not likely...

[Twisted Titan]

Dude my head is spinning over the various scenarios

Thank God I own the one asset that dosent have counterparty risk and is universally accepted.

Paper is too complex a game for my tastes

[Son-of-Liberty]

Aren't there laws against loan sharking? LOL

[Neuro]

Aren't there laws against loan sharking? LOL

Should they arrest those who buy these bonds? ;D

[madfranks]

I think I might buy $20k worth. Cash out in a year and have about $40k.

That's a bet I would not be willing to take. A 95% one year yield is basically a guarantee that it's about to crash. Best case scenario the money you get back will be worth less than the $20k you put up.

[Neuro]

It is odd though, why are 2- and 10- year bonds trading at a lower interest? If it is believed that Greece will default on its debt sooner or later, wouldn't the 2- or 10-year security be an even greater risk? I guess the belief is that they default sooner rather than later...

[osoab]

It is odd though, why are 2- and 10- year bonds trading at a lower interest? If it is believed that Greece will default on its debt sooner or later, wouldn't the 2- or 10-year security be an even greater risk? I guess the belief is that they default sooner rather than later...


That is how I was looking at it. 2yr is around 55% their 10yr is around 30%

[vacuum]

A third option between default and getting back double is possible. You may get paid back in a heavily devalued greek drachma calculated at the rate they converted to Euro 10 years or so ago. I think this may be the likeliest scenario. Soon Germany, Holland, Finland will put the ultimatum to ECB, them or us. ECB choosing them not likely...
Good point.

[platinumdude]

I should point out that I miss having the sarcasm pic that I can easily add.

[Joe King]

It is odd though, why are 2- and 10- year bonds trading at a lower interest? If it is believed that Greece will default on its debt sooner or later, wouldn't the 2- or 10-year security be an even greater risk? I guess the belief is that they default sooner rather than later...I'd say it's because they're trying to encourage short term bond sales, for whatever reason.
...and if they go belly up and default, aren't all varieties of their bonds essentially worthless?

[Sparky]

Just came across this stat: The U.S. owes about $100,000 for every working American. Greece owes $250,000 for every working Greek. I'm not sure which one of those is scarier. It says that Greece is in even worse shape than the debt-ridden U.S., but it also says the world's lone super-power has a debt level approaching that of a crumbling sovereignty.

[General of Darkness]

Two words, fucking jews.

[Serpo]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5QwKEwo4Bc&feature=player_embedded

[gunDriller]

This is such a paradox. You only get your money back if they don't default within a year. So somehow they have to avoid default of their seemingly insurmountable debt, while paying investors a rate of 100%. Insane. They say the bond market speaks the truth.

basically, the bond market is saying that Greece will default, and that they will 'deal with it' by devaluing their currency 50% - and cutting the tie to the Euro.

i wonder how much a Souvlaki costs these days.

when i was younger we lived there & the Souvlaki was really good. you could get Souvlaki for 30 cents and fresh bread for about the same.

[Neuro]

basically, the bond market is saying that Greece will default, and that they will 'deal with it' by devaluing their currency 50% - and cutting the tie to the Euro.

i wonder how much a Souvlaki costs these days.

when i was younger we lived there & the Souvlaki was really good. you could get Souvlaki for 30 cents and fresh bread for about the same.
I was in a couple of Greek islands this summer. I was only there for 2 days, so I only saw the touristic places, and Souvlaki was around 7-8 €, so around $10-12, possibly you can get it for around $5-7 in the restaurants the locals use...

[vacuum]

Just came across this stat: The U.S. owes about $100,000 for every working American. Greece owes $250,000 for every working Greek. I'm not sure which one of those is scarier. It says that Greece is in even worse shape than the debt-ridden U.S., but it also says the world's lone super-power has a debt level approaching that of a crumbling sovereignty.
Yeah, but what was the greek debt per capita when the crisis started? Before they accepted all the bailout loans?

[osoab]

All is well, the Greek 1 Yr is at 94.17% yield currently.

[mick silver]

That's a bet I would not be willing to take also . i will keep betting on gold and silver

[mick silver]

Two words, fucking jews.

we have to get better at beating them at there own game

[Serpo]

This is such a paradox. You only get your money back if they don't default within a year. So somehow they have to avoid default of their seemingly insurmountable debt, while paying investors a rate of 100%. Insane. They say the bond market speaks the truth.

Yes it makes you wonder how they got into this mess if they are so smart......;D

[platinumdude]

All is well, the Greek 1 Yr is at 94.17% yield currently.

OK, forget it then. I waited too long.

[osoab]

platinumdude, you may have a chance yet.

Snapshot


Summary

Value 97.96
Change (%)
Open 95.89
High 97.96
Low 93.86

[osoab]

Value 111.71
Change 3.745 (14.031%)
Open 95.98
High 111.71
Low 95.97

So when does Greece go belly up?

[Neuro]

112.6% now! Soon Amy soon!

[Spectrism]

The writing is on the wall. Sheesh! That is rising by the minute. We can see what exponential looks like.

[Neuro]

Now 125.6%! GOSH!

[Libertarian_Guard]

Now 125.6%! GOSH!



http://i51.tinypic.com/2s0fxnl.jpg

Sort of reminds me of Washinghton Mutual a few years back, they were paying 5% interest on one or two year CD's, while everyone else was offering something closer to 1%!

It just can't come true, unless the taxpayer gets stuck with the payment, again.

[madfranks]

Is anyone buying? You'd have to be a fool to, with signals like these!

[Gaillo]

Is anyone buying? You'd have to be a fool to, with signals like these!

A fool and his money are soon partying... ;D

[Large Sarge]

it signals govt default.

they cannot attract any private capital investment (hence the higher interest rates)

they did not bring their budget to a level investors felt comfortable with.

default is imminent....

this is the death gasp.... before the announcement...

[Libertarian_Guard]

A fool and his money are soon partying... ;D

Yep, that's me.

But not with Greek bonds!

[Large Sarge]

I was looking for numbers, it appears that its roughly a 100 billion total (private and govt debt)

65 billion private

35 billion govt

Germany holds the most
France is second

the real risk from this, beside a major seize of the system, is that this will spread to countries that are already "weak" PIIGS

I guess Portugal would be next.

also, Greece is the "canary in the coal mine", so to speak, this is the first big default...

so however this plays out, many other countries will be following suit...

[osoab]

This was the final for today/yesterday.


Value 117.21

Open 95.98

High 139.01

Low 95.97

[MAGNES]

This is basically a default, those that sold the bonds early were insiders.

The state is not paying these yields, whoever owned the bonds got killed.

No way they can issue new bonds with rates like this. LOL

The gov is very corrupt and stupid to go along with IMF austerity,
it made things worse, default was always inevitable, why hurt your
real economy, even on default, the bondholders will negotiate something,
they won't get zero, with IMF austerity measures, they are in a worse
position now.

Greece has a huge current account deficit, the Euro prohibits them from
reducing this, in 2008 it was $60 Billion, imagine if that money stayed in
the country and circulated, that was just one year. If this current account
deficit is not dealt with, nothing else really matters as much, they will always
have problems. Devalue, add tariffs, monetary and non monetary barriers,
build manufacturing, force BMW to build a plant if they want to sell BMW's
in Greece, etc , just one example. Germany wins too, get rid of the Turkish
guest workers. But they won't do that because they want Germany destroyed
too.

Where was the $60 billion going to, which countries and for what imports ?
Start there.

It would be like the USA having a $2.0 trillion current account deficit, unsustainable.

[Neuro]

134.7% right now! I guess that means greece 1 year bonds are selling at a 60% discount right now...

Magnes I don't think Germany has any significant numbers of Turkish guestworkers any longer. They have a large Turkish community though, but they are German citizens in general. The third generation Turks don't tend to speak and understand Turkish much at all...

[osoab]

So what happens when it hits a 200% yield?



Value 143.19

Change 8.609 (6.397%)

Open 138.65

High 148.90

Low 132.66

[Neuro]

So what happens when it hits a 200% yield?

Fireworks?

[osoab]

Fireworks?

The Greeks have fireworks? Or would they be using flaming rocks?

[DMac]

I'm not sure how to go about it but one could technically be shorting these bonds and making a killing at the moment. Or so I think :)

[Neuro]

I'm not sure how to go about it but one could technically be shorting these bonds and making a killing at the moment. Or so I think :)

I think in especially this case, if you don't have inside knowledge as to what goes on in negotiations between greek goverment, ECB, and the government of France and Germany, you are better of keeping your greedy hands off from this baby... Unless you feel lucky of course...

[Spectrism]

I think in especially this case, if you don't have inside knowledge as to what goes on in negotiations between greek goverment, ECB, and the government of France and Germany, you are better of keeping your greedy hands off from this baby... Unless you feel lucky of course...

Unfortunately, I think you are right. None of the markets make sense. If they really were based on value, truth and free exchange, they would have crashed long ago. What we see now as a marketplace is a mannequin made with the skin of a once-living being, now manipulated by sadistic thieves.

[Neuro]

Probably better to have gone long Greek debt (At least in the short term):


U.S. stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index higher for a third day, as French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel said they are convinced Greece will remain in the euro zone.
Read more here:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-14/u-s-stock-futures-drop-as-china-signals-reluctance-on-bailouts.html

[Neuro]

Still at 138.6%! The market doesn't believe in Sarkoma and Merkel apparently [GASP!]...

[osoab]

Still at 138.6%! The market doesn't believe in Sarkoma and Merkel apparently [GASP!]...

It's down from yesterday. Isn't that confidence?

[Neuro]

it's down from yesterday. Isn't that confidence?

lol! ;d

[osoab]

Greece is saved!

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GGGB1YR:IND

Value 101.22
Change -27.521 (-21.376%)
Open 131.19
High 131.19
Low 101.11

[Neuro]

Thank god, just 99% interest now, greece debt is as good as gold... 8)

[Neuro]

Back up at 125.5%. confidence is oozing!

[Neuro]

Thank god Merkeloid Sarcoma came in and put their full confidence and weight (allegedly Merkel is an unfuckable lardarse) behind Greece, now the interest rate on the 1 year bond is only 129.7%... How bad would it have been otherwise...

[MAGNES]

Are you guys reading those charts and quotes right ?

Bond prices go down for yields to go up.

I haven't been following this in detail, been busy.

Bonds have taken a major beating and yields are up dramatically.

The writing is on the wall, this still signals default, default does not mean
the bondholders get zero, that will never happen, these rates reported here
in August equate to no ability to come to market to refinance, so they toast.

Celebrate this, let's get this show on the road. Burn, the sooner the better.

Thursday 25 August 2011
http://economicsnewspaper.com/policy/german/interest-rates-rise-to-record-levels-athens-holds-his-breath-61062.html
The muddled financial situation of Greece comes to a head much. Greece during its banks provide emergency loans to prevent a collapse must be, in the European dispute over collateral for new aid money is no solution in sight. Also, the increased participation of private creditors. Meanwhile, the Greek government bond yields to rise to dramatic highs.
The interest of Greek government bonds due to strong pull of a whole series of unresolved problems. For papers with ten-year maturity, the yield rose to a record high of more than 18 percent. An even more dramatic picture emerged on the short side: two-year maturity bonds listed at the top just under 47 percent. Thus signaling the Bond Markets acute doubts about the salvation of Greece by the second billion-dollar rescue package.

[osoab]

Are you guys reading those charts and quotes right ?

Bond prices go down for yields to go up.

I haven't been following this in detail, been busy.

Bonds have taken a major beating and yields are up dramatically.

The writing is on the wall, this still signals default, default does not mean
the bondholders get zero, that will never happen, these rates reported here
in August equate to no ability to come to market to refinance, so they toast.

Celebrate this, let's get this show on the road. Burn, the sooner the better.

Thursday 25 August 2011
http://economicsnewspaper.com/policy/german/interest-rates-rise-to-record-levels-athens-holds-his-breath-61062.html
The muddled financial situation of Greece comes to a head much. Greece during its banks provide emergency loans to prevent a collapse must be, in the European dispute over collateral for new aid money is no solution in sight. Also, the increased participation of private creditors. Meanwhile, the Greek government bond yields to rise to dramatic highs.
The interest of Greek government bonds due to strong pull of a whole series of unresolved problems. For papers with ten-year maturity, the yield rose to a record high of more than 18 percent. An even more dramatic picture emerged on the short side: two-year maturity bonds listed at the top just under 47 percent. Thus signaling the Bond Markets acute doubts about the salvation of Greece by the second billion-dollar rescue package.

I am assuming I am reading the yields on their 1 year notes correctly. It is just shy of 130% right now.

So the bonds are worth nothing other than the paper printed on. That is only if you get the paper in hand. Otherwise the bonds are not even worth the electrons used to show the data on screen.

[Neuro]

I am assuming I am reading the yields on their 1 year notes correctly. It is just shy of 130% right now.

So the bonds are worth nothing other than the paper printed on. That is only if you get the paper in hand. Otherwise the bonds are not even worth the electrons used to show the data on screen.
Yes the yield is 130%, which should mean that if you buy that bond today you pay about 45% of its nominal value, which is not completely worthless, but of course a great loss (55%) if you bought the bond a couple of years ago at its nominal value. IMO what it tells is that the market doesn't believe that Merkeloid and Sarkoma can/will back up Greece and/or Greece will not be able to go through with the demands for fiscal austerity for continued assistance from ECB and other governments and banks. However the equation is complicated by powerful market actors that may have invested in a Greek default (a Goldman Sachs speciality), and those powerful actors may actually continue shorting greek debt, to get Greece or Germany to throw in the towel, and make their windfall...

[Neuro]

Daily update 133.3%. which means if you invest 3€ in Greek bonds with maturity in a year, you will get 7€ back, in the unlikely event Greece doesn't default...

[Neuro]

Seems like the Greek bond is stabilizing, at 130-145%. Greek debt is rock solid...

LOL

right now at 135%

[Neuro]

Seems like the Greek bond is stabilizing, at 130-145%. Greek debt is rock solid...

LOL

right now at 135%

[Neuro]

Greek bonds display an amazing level of stability, 134% today, HEUREKA!

[vacuum]

I feel bad for those who bought back in September at 96.95%. They could have made much more money if they just waited a month.

[osoab]

Greek bonds display an amazing level of stability, 134% today, HEUREKA!


I checked yesterday and they were around 125% yield. I figured they were on their way to a recovery.

[Neuro]

Getting close to breaking the 150% barrier now. Sitting at 144% currently...

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGGB1YR:IND

[gunDriller]

when we were kids, we lived in Greece for a year.

my father was a chemical engineer. he showed my older brother how to make firecrackers.

that year it was my turn to have the "small room" ... which was a closet in our rented house. it was right next to my brother's firecracker factory in his bedroom.

i used to go with him to the Athens flea market to buy chemicals for his firecrackers. i don't recall him ever being prevented from buying anything. i do remember him buying Potassium Perchlorate.

later, we got conventional degrees and my brother was a VP at Morgan Stanley for several years.


i also remember the huge indoor meat market. i don't mean a Friday's at 5 singles hangout. i mean a humongous warehouse full of dead animal parts.

i wonder how the flea market and the meat market are doing now ?

[Neuro]

How is your brother doing now? Is he awake to what is going on?

[gunDriller]

How is your brother doing now? Is he awake to what is going on?

he is somewhat awake; he knows how cut-throat the business world can be. he is an exec VP for a publicly held real estate company.

he hates talking bout the economy with me. in one conversation he said i was more knowledgeable about currency markets & the effect of geo-politics on markets than him. i'm not sure if he was blowing smoke or if he meant it.

i sent him a copy of the Hirsch report, about how to prepare for declining world oil production. he asked why i was "so full of bad news".

he has worked hard to be a member of the country-club set. his version of buying gold is buying stock in Barrick.

he doesn't like talking about 9-11 or any version of politics other than the Official Conspiracy Theory.

[Neuro]

Gun Driller, it seems your brother instinctively knows somethings are not right, but is shielding himself to the truth, something I think is common in the corporacracy...

[osoab]

Damn!

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGGB1YR:IND

Greece Govt Bond 1Year Yield


169.33500 5.63200 3.44%

[platinumdude]

Damn!

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGGB1YR:IND

Greece Govt Bond 1Year Yield


169.33500 5.63200 3.44%

You can't beat that rate return anywhere. It must be time to buy.

[Spectrism]

Irresistible bargain!!

I am feeling such an urge to buy that valuable paper.... would they take used cardboard boxes in exchange? Or, I may be able to scrounge up some shredded paper at the dump as an even exchange.

[osoab]

Irresistible bargain!!

I am feeling such an urge to buy that valuable paper.... would they take used cardboard boxes in exchange? Or, I may be able to scrounge up some shredded paper at the dump as an even exchange.


I think they would take ink.

[osoab]

172.39300 3.05800 1.81%

I am waiting for a 200% yield before I jump in. ::)

[Spectrism]

172.39300 3.05800 1.81%

I am waiting for a 200% yield before I jump in. ::)

Well, if you can wait for 200%, then I will sacrifice on these great deals and wait until 300%. How long will I have to wait? An extra week?

[Neuro]

I think they would take ink.

They will need it soon, as they will start printing Drachma bills, I feel fairly certain, they are about to go throw a period of hyperinflation...

Last few days I visited Spain, one of the other PIIGS, I didn't sense any feelings of impending doom in Spain to be honest, allthough I visited only two location The Mallorca Island, and Barcelona, both getting a lot of invome from tourists, so these areas may not be representative for Spain overall...

[osoab]

They will need it soon, as they will start printing Drachma bills, I feel fairly certain, they are about to go throw a period of hyperinflation...

Last few days I visited Spain, one of the other PIIGS, I didn't sense any feelings of impending doom in Spain to be honest, allthough I visited only two location The Mallorca Island, and Barcelona, both getting a lot of invome from tourists, so these areas may not be representative for Spain overall...

This was the story I was referring back to with the ink comment.

Greece Runs Out Of Ink, Can't Print Tax Forms
(http://www.zerohedge.com/news/greece-runs-out-ink-cant-print-tax-forms)

[Neuro]

This was the story I was referring back to with the ink comment.

Greece Runs Out Of Ink, Can't Print Tax Forms
(http://www.zerohedge.com/news/greece-runs-out-ink-cant-print-tax-forms)
Thanks I have some catching up to do! Greece will default very soon! And they will find the ink to print tax forms and currency with, mostly Drachma...

[Libertarian_Guard]

They will need it soon, as they will start printing Drachma bills, I feel fairly certain, they are about to go throw a period of hyperinflation...

Last few days I visited Spain, one of the other PIIGS, I didn't sense any feelings of impending doom in Spain to be honest, allthough I visited only two location The Mallorca Island, and Barcelona, both getting a lot of invome from tourists, so these areas may not be representative for Spain overall...

Do you think they've accepted to a 20% unemployment rate as the norm?

[Neuro]

Do you think they've accepted to a 20% unemployment rate as the norm?

Probably not, but I visited areas that are well off! So my experience is not exactly representative!

[Neuro]

178.87% right now!

[osoab]

186.13800 6.15600 3.42%

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGGB1YR:IND

[Joe King]

I'm in at 200

[DMac]

Rothschild Banker Calls for End of Euro (http://www.thedailybell.com/3077/Rothschild-Banker-Calls-for-End-of-Euro)

Apparently France is/was a large holder of Greek bonds, so German bailout of Greece is backdoor bailout of France.

tangled web....

[Spectrism]

I'm in at 200

Oh... you are such an optimist!

[Neuro]

Rothschild Banker Calls for End of Euro (http://www.thedailybell.com/3077/Rothschild-Banker-Calls-for-End-of-Euro)

Excellent article!

[osoab]

Rothschild Banker Calls for End of Euro (http://www.thedailybell.com/3077/Rothschild-Banker-Calls-for-End-of-Euro)

Apparently France is/was a large holder of Greek bonds, so German bailout of Greece is backdoor bailout of France.

tangled web....

I like this chart. It was shown on ZeroHedge about a month back or so. I couldn't find the article on ZH. I did find the chart somewhere else.


http://www.sott.net/image/image/s4/81972/full/20110918_EURAFT.png

[osoab]

Greece is saved! 1yr bond touched over 190 yesterday.

157.55100 -33.44200 +17.51%

[osoab]

Ummm, Greece is not saved.


http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGGB1YR:IND

199.14500 +40.50500 -25.53%

[Neuro]

They decided to put the previous deal up for a public referendum so are being punished for being bad little country and not following the IMF and it's decisions

It seems it was primarily the Greek bondholders that got punished today... Anyway I doubt they will be able to get a better deal and stay inside the Euro, I am a bit surprised it took this turn actually. I am not up to speed as to what the details of the deal was, does Greece have to give up on their autonomy to get the €100 Billion discount on their debt?

Realistically the options in a Greek referendum would be Staying or Leaving the Euro. I doubt they get another deal if they reject this one.

I think this action very well could be the thing that sets of a cascade of events, that burns the Euro to the ground, as far as I understand it a referendum is something that at least takes 2-3 months to organize, in Greece probably 5-6 months, if they can get the ink for printing the ballots, meanwhile this will just hang in the air? I doubt the European Central Bank will release any funds to Greece, prior to a positive vote. Greece will meanwhile default on their maturing bonds? They will stop paying out pensions and salaries? Most likely more bailout deals to other PIIGS will be put on ice, until it is seen what happens with Greece. Angela Merkel is on the way out, amd will most likely be out before Greece has had their referendum... Germany may very well withdraw their support to the bailout once the unfuckable lardarse is gone...

So many possible disasters so little time!

[osoab]

Actually closed over 200 today/yesterday on the Greek 1 year. Bloomberg has the percentage in positive now. When I did my earlier post for today, the percentage was negative. ???

I will have to wait for 400% yield to make up for the 50% haircut they are trying to stuff down throats. That will get me back to 200%. ;D


203.67800 +45.03800 +28.39%

[osoab]

224.79600 21.11700 10.37% As of 06:27 11/02/2011. All times are ET. Market data is de

[Neuro]

I posted this in Twisted Titan's Greek barter thread, but it is relevant to this thread also:

One reason for the rise in bartering, is because the ATM's doesn't have cash, shops and restaurants frequently refuses to accept card payments, because they can't spend the bank account balance at other places... People is not trading any longer in avenues where the government is able to tax them effectively. Half the Greek debt may be written off, at this stage it doesn't matter, the Greek gov will not be able to service that either...

I think we may be within days of Greece cracking (in some way or other)... It is surreal!

[Neuro]

233.22% right now!

[Spectrism]

I was holding out til 300% to buy these fine debt instruments, but my moving scale is now up to 500%.

Subject to change without notice.

[Neuro]

I was holding out til 300% to buy these fine debt instruments, but my moving scale is now up to 500%.

Subject to change without notice.
It is a good idea to keep a good safe distance to your purchasing target... You don't want to be caught panic buying! ;D

[Neuro]

Btw is there a trading instrument, where I can go short Greek Drachma?

[Neuro]

250.37% right now!

[Neuro]

They say the referendum will be in December, but they haven't decided on the wording yet. However it is clear the vote is about Greece staying in the Euro or not... I bet Euro's are hoarded in Greece now!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-02/greece-to-decide-euro-membership-in-december-vote-as-eu-cuts-aid-payments.html

[Neuro]

Strangely despite abandoning the plans on a referendum. Papandreou resigning in favour of a coalition government dedicated staying in the Euro, the 1 year bond is still at 235% interest rate...

Has the decision to kick out Greece from the Euro already been taken, or is it that bond holders already are calculating a 50% haircut on the principal ( but that in turn would motivate an interest rate around 105%...

[Neuro]

Doesn't seem like the market has much confidence in Papademos being able to save Greece from defaulting...

The 1 year greek government bond is now trading at around 249%!

[JohnQPublic]

It is the only thing that pays better than gold/silver, but with much much greater counterparty risk.

[undgrd]

Doesn't matter who they put "in charge" if the people are going to riot anytime you try and cut entitlements.

[platinumdude]

Time to get serious and buy some more Greek bonds.

[Neuro]

Surreal!

271.5%

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGGB1YR:IND

[osoab]

GGGB1YR:IND

307.64800 +40.02700 -14.96%

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGGB1YR:IND

[Neuro]

GGGB1YR:IND

307.64800 +40.02700 -14.96%

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGGB1YR:IND

Those who revised up their buying target for Greek debt from 200% to 500%, a few weeks ago, maybe should start thinking about revising their target up again... How about a 1000%?

[Spectrism]

Those who revised up their buying target for Greek debt from 200% to 500%, a few weeks ago, maybe should start thinking about revising their target up again... How about a 1000%?

Well, it is looking like a real bargain at these levels.... but I will revise my target again from 500 to 750%.... or I might get stuck buying that worthless paper. On its hasty journey to oblivion, it looks like Greek bonds will be marching toward 500 now... one little step in front of the other... until it reaches a cliff and goes a long distance on one little step.

[osoab]

I thought the lastest FED swap saved Europe?


http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGGB1YR:IND


343.80000 +29.09100 9.24%


As of 10:18 12/02/2011. All times are ET. Market data is delayed by at least 15 minutes.

[Spectrism]

I thought the lastest FED swap saved Europe?
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGGB1YR:IND

343.80000 +29.09100 9.24%

As of 10:18 12/02/2011. All times are ET. Market data is delayed by at least 15 minutes.

We are very fortunate. It looks like the fed will be getting us taxpayers some real good deals on Greek debt.... after they buy up all the older not-so-good deals. And when the general default happens anyway, we will have some pretty impressive numbers to show how well we bargained for the losses we got.

[Neuro]

I thought the lastest FED swap saved Europe?


http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGGB1YR:IND


343.80000 +29.09100 9.24%

As of 10:18 12/02/2011. All times are ET. Market data is delayed by at least 15 minutes.
It is clear that the decision has been taken not to support Greece. They will not get any more money. They will be forced to default and to leave the Euro. It has just not been put into an official statement yet.

If I am wrong, Greek debt would be one of the better buying opportunities right now.

[osoab]

It is clear that the decision has been taken not to support Greece. They will not get any more money. They will be forced to default and to leave the Euro. It has just not been put into an official statement yet.

If I am wrong, Greek debt would be one of the better buying opportunities right now.

They got their latest tranche of money I thought.

If the bonds are denominated in Euros, what happens to the conversion back to Lira?

What will their haircut be on the yields?

Too many questions for me.

[Neuro]

They got their latest tranche of money I thought.

If the bonds are denominated in Euros, what happens to the conversion back to Lira?

What will their haircut be on the yields?

Too many questions for me.As far as I know, there is an official exchange rate still in existance re the value of the different European countries currencies that joined the Euro, it is the rate they had when they joined, and as far as I know you can still bring old bank notes to a central bank and exchange it for Euros. My guess is that the Euro denominated Greek bonds, will be valued according to that exchange rate in Drachmas (not Liras, that is the currency of neighboring Turkey and the previous currency of Italy). But I am by no means sure of that. If it is so then Greek Central bank would just print up sufficient Drachmas to pay the debt, which would cause significant inflation, similar to Turkish inflation during 80's and 90's around 50-150% per year. Another option would be to force Greece to pay back the full amount in Euro's. Just like the Weimar republic was forced to pay the war penalties in gold. This would very quickly get Greece into hyperinflation of the newly re-introduced Drachma. The third option would be to write down Greek debt to maybe 10-30% of its nominal value while they stay in the Euro. As I understood it they just wrote it down 50%, but that would leave a market value of the 1 year bond slightly above 100% interest rate on its nominal value, obviously the market doesn't find this doable, since the rate is well over 300% now. Right now Greek debt is worth a bit more than 20c on the Euro. But there is no guarantee they will honor that debt either.

My bet is on the first option, because on the second and the third, bond holders will not get back more than a slight fraction of the debt, if any...

[Neuro]

Just had a look at the Greek 1-year government bond it opened at 369% and closed at 346%. it seems like on the chart that it has been hanging somewhere between 300-370% this whole month...

[osoab]

Just had a look at the Greek 1-year government bond it opened at 369% and closed at 346%. it seems like on the chart that it has been hanging somewhere between 300-370% this whole month...


I didn't catch the 369 number this morning. I have been keeping an eye on the number.

For some reason I was thinking that the yield has already cracked 350.

[Spectrism]

What? Is it time to buy that valuable paper?

[osoab]

374.99700 29.39100 8.50%

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGGB1YR:IND

Back up today.

[Spectrism]

374.99700 29.39100 8.50%

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGGB1YR:IND

Back up today.


So, what you are saying is that I better buy them before they become worthless.

[osoab]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGGB1YR:IND

381.27200 8.01300 2.15%

New closing high I think.

[osoab]

385.40300 13.35000 3.59%

[osoab]

Buy, Buy, Buy.


403.34300 17.94000 4.66%

[osoab]

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/pictures/picture-5.jpg (http://www.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden)
Market Implies Greek Devaluation To 1530 Drachma Versus Euro (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/market-implies-greek-devaluation-1530-drachma-versus-euro)


On the day when Greek 1Y yields broke above 400% for the first time, a consideration of just what Greece would look like post-exit is perhaps fruitful. Looking at hypothetical forward rates (generated from covered interest rate parity between EURUSD FX and EMU sovereign interest rates), MSCI has an interesting analysis (http://www.msci.com/resources/research/articles/2012/Market_Insight_Currency_Risk_in_Europes_Emerging_F inancial_Regime_January_2012.pdf) of what a decoupled Drachma (and for that matter Lira, Escudo, and Irish Pound) would look like. Given the Greeks entered the EMU in January 2001 at 340.75 Drachma to the Euro, the current market is pricing in a massive devaluation to around 1530 Drachma to the Euro. Perhaps as further evidence of the market's perspective that a devaluation is likely, from extremely high correlations just over a year ago, the implied new Greek Drachma vs Euro has dropped to almost negligible correlation against an implicit Deutschmark vs Euro. As the PSI discussions go from bad to worse (as we expected and discussed yesterday (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/goldman-unveils-script-greek-haircut-kabuki)), it seems the market is increasingly expecting at best a coercive agreement (if not outright exit).

[JohnWood]

I will get myself a nice Greek flat (Aussie slang for residential house) with premium scenic view upon completion of global currency realignment..Once in a lifetime opportunity.

[undgrd]

Hope you can afford private security moving to and from it. It's not good to be a "have" in the land of the "have nots".

[Spectrism]

Darn! I missed the buy signal. I guess I won't get on that fat Greek trainride to oblivion.

[Neuro]

Hope you can afford private security moving to and from it. It's not good to be a "have" in the land of the "have nots".

That may apply anywhere in not too long a timescale! If not I am sure sooner or later Greece will recover some way or another... Tis not the first rough patch them are through!

400% is sounding impressive though...

[Neuro]

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/pictures/picture-5.jpg (http://www.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden)
Market Implies Greek Devaluation To 1530 Drachma Versus Euro (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/market-implies-greek-devaluation-1530-drachma-versus-euro)

On the day when Greek 1Y yields broke above 400% for the first time, a consideration of just what Greece would look like post-exit is perhaps fruitful. Looking at hypothetical forward rates (generated from covered interest rate parity between EURUSD FX and EMU sovereign interest rates), MSCI has an interesting analysis (http://www.msci.com/resources/research/articles/2012/Market_Insight_Currency_Risk_in_Europes_Emerging_F inancial_Regime_January_2012.pdf) of what a decoupled Drachma (and for that matter Lira, Escudo, and Irish Pound) would look like. Given the Greeks entered the EMU in January 2001 at 340.75 Drachma to the Euro, the current market is pricing in a massive devaluation to around 1530 Drachma to the Euro. Perhaps as further evidence of the market's perspective that a devaluation is likely, from extremely high correlations just over a year ago, the implied new Greek Drachma vs Euro has dropped to almost negligible correlation against an implicit Deutschmark vs Euro. As the PSI discussions go from bad to worse (as we expected and discussed yesterday (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/goldman-unveils-script-greek-haircut-kabuki)), it seems the market is increasingly expecting at best a coercive agreement (if not outright exit).

That is what I think will happen. Greece leaves Euro, the bondholders agree to be repaid in Greek Drachma, at the rate Greece entered into the Euro. They'll get an 80% haircut and those banks too big too fail get the losses papered over by the ECB. Euro tourists stream back into Greek, because everything becomes incredibly cheap. Stavros get his waiter job back, and he can go back to charm Swedish girls into VD's again!

What were they thinking!

[osoab]

Darn! I missed the buy signal. I guess I won't get on that fat Greek trainride to oblivion.


Wait for a 500% yield. Just weeks away. ;D

[Spectrism]

Wait for a 500% yield. Just weeks away. ;D

You mean I still have a chance to buy that valuable paper? Oh my heart leaps with joy! Let me know when it is time. I will set aside about 75 cents over the next week or two.

[osoab]

You mean I still have a chance to buy that valuable paper? Oh my heart leaps with joy! Let me know when it is time. I will set aside about 75 cents over the next week or two.


Did you want the Drachma conversion for that?

[Spectrism]

Did you want the Drachma conversion for that?

Sure. Does that come in thousands or millions?

If the deal isn't good enough, I may spend it all on Zimbabwe dollars. I may be able to get a couple hundred billion of those precious babies.

[Neuro]

Sure. Does that come in thousands or millions?

If the deal isn't good enough, I may spend it all on Zimbabwe dollars. I may be able to get a couple hundred billion of those precious babies.

Looks like you are about to get ripped off... Think Quadrillions, if you are going to wage a whole $0.75 FRN on Zimbabies... You may consider dividing up the investment over time to allow your head to get around the numbers, and avoiding the mistake of jumping in at the inopportune time... Many things to consider here! If you would like I can put you in touch with my personal Nigerian bank manager, who appears to be very knowledgeable re all African banking/investment matters. He is very busy though right now, helping me with the transfer of an inheritance from diseased distant relative, whom I never heard of before, but is my next of kin, who died in a tragic plane crash.

I know he is very busy, because I haven't heard from him, since I transferred $148,455 to recover the $10,000,000 inheritance from my unfortunate relative, 3 months ago...

Anyway if he is too busy, I have hundreds of other honest Nigerian bankmanagers, lawyers, and ministry of finance clerks that I am sure will be willing to assist with valuable advice, in your Zimbabwean investment endeavors. They all sent me e-mails about inheritances that I can collect on. I haven't really pursued these other opportunities that have streamed in the last 3 months because I spent my last resources on the recovery of the first inheritance, and since I now know how much it will cost to recover these inheritances I decided to wait until the first inheritance clears to my account. But I can tell you soon I will be rich beyond my wildest dreams...

[Spectrism]

I should put my Nigerian barrister in touch with yours... except mine won't talk to me anymore. He was great fun while we were talking though.

So, you are suggesting that I penny-cost average so that I don't get ripped by changing values. Surely sage advice.

I think I will hire a sharp Nigerian accountant to advise me on spacing out 5-cent investments... splitting them up between greek paper and zimbabies. As they say, diversify for safety.

[Neuro]

404% right now. A trainwreck can't possibly be more slow motion than this!

[osoab]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGGB1YR:IND

Down to 401%, but we did hit 415% earlier today.

[osoab]

421.20500 19.69600 4.91%

[DMac]

Do you folks think they (Greece) makes it through 2012 without a formal default?

[osoab]

Do you folks think they (Greece) makes it through 2012 without a formal default?

What would be considered formal? The EMU and ECB saying that bondholders have to take a haircut?

[DMac]

What would be considered formal? The EMU and ECB saying that bondholders have to take a haircut?

I'm referring to if the ECB/EFSF decides to not bailout Greek bondholders for the Nth time, and so the Greek defaults on the payment.

Perhaps a serious haircut (more like buzzcut lol) scenario.

[osoab]

I'm referring to if the ECB/EFSF decides to not bailout Greek bondholders for the Nth time, and so the Greek defaults on the payment.

Perhaps a serious haircut (more like buzzcut lol) scenario.

Well, if they say Greece is defaulting, what happens to the rest of the PIIGS? Why would the rest of the PIIGS pay up on their bonds if Greece defaults?

I say no default will occur. They will crash the system before Euro countries default on their bonds.

[osoab]

460.54100 39.33600 9.34% :o

[osoab]

2 minutes later...

GGGB1YR:IND

466.13100 44.92600 10.67% As of 06:37:00 on 01/19/2012. All times are ET. Market data is d

[osoab]

Everyone needd a little laughter in the morning.



2101 2101 2101




Hedge Funds May Sue Greece if It Tries to Force Loss (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/19/business/global/hedge-funds-may-sue-greece-if-it-tries-to-force-loss.html?_r=1&hpw)





LONDON — Hedge funds have been known to use hardball tactics to make money. Now they have come up with a new one: suing Greece (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/greece/index.html?inline=nyt-geo) in a human rights court to make good on its bond payments.

The novel approach would have the funds arguing in the European Court of Human Rights (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/e/european_court_of_human_rights/index.html?inline=nyt-org) that Greece had violated bondholder rights, though that could be a multiyear project with no guarantee of a payoff. And it would not be likely to produce sympathy for these funds, which many blame for the lack of progress so far in the negotiations over restructuring Greece’s debts.

The tactic has emerged in conversations with lawyers and hedge funds as it became clear that Greece was considering passing legislation to force all private bondholders to take losses, while exempting the European Central Bank (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/e/european_central_bank/index.html?inline=nyt-org), which is the largest institutional holder of Greek bonds with 50 billion euros or so.

Legal experts suggest that the investors may have a case because if Greece changes the terms of its bonds so that investors receive less than they are owed, that could be viewed as a property rights violation — and in Europe, property rights are human rights.

The bond restructuring is a critical element for Greece to receive its latest bailout from the international community. As part of that 130 billion euro ($165.5 billion) rescue, Greece is looking to cut its debt by 100 billion euros through 2014 by forcing its bankers to accept a 50 percent loss on new bonds that they receive in a debt exchange.

According to one senior government official involved in the negotiations, Greece will present an offer to creditors this week that includes an interest rate or coupon on new bonds received in exchange for the old bonds that is less than the 4 percent private creditors have been pushing for — and they will be forced to accept it whether they like it or not.

“This is crunch time for us. The time for niceties has expired,” said the person, who was not authorized to talk publicly. “These guys will have to accept everything.”

The surprise collapse last week of the talks in Athens raised the prospect that Greece might not receive a crucial 30 billion euro payment and might miss a make-or-break 14.5 billion euro bond payment on March 20 — throwing the country into default and jeopardizing its membership in the euro zone.

Talks between the two sides picked back up on Wednesday evening in Athens when Charles Dallara of the Institute of International Finance, who represents private sector bondholders, met with Prime Minister Lucas Papademos of Greece and his deputies.

While both sides have tried to adopt a conciliatory tone, the threat of a disorderly default and the spread of contagion to other vulnerable countries like Portugal remains pronounced.

“In my opinion, it is unlikely that this is the last restructuring we go through in Europe,” said Hans Humes, a veteran of numerous debt restructurings and the president and chief executive of Greylock Capital, the only hedge fund on the private sector steering committee, which is taking the lead in the Greek negotiations.

“The private sector has come a long way. We hope that the other parties agree that it is more constructive to reach a voluntary agreement than the alternative.”

At the root of the dispute is a growing insistence on the part of Germany (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/germany/index.html?inline=nyt-geo) and the International Monetary Fund (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/i/international_monetary_fund/index.html?inline=nyt-org) that as Greece’s economy continues to collapse, its debt — now about 140 percent of its gross domestic product — needs to be reduced as rapidly as possible.

Those two powerful actors — which control the purse strings for current and future Greek bailouts — have pressured Greece to adopt a more aggressive tone toward its creditors. As a result, Greece has demanded that bondholders accept not only a 50 percent loss on their new bonds but also a lower interest rate on them. That is a tough pill for investors to swallow, given the already steep losses they face, and one that would be likely to increase the cumulative haircut to between 60 and 70 percent.

The lower interest rate would help Greece by reducing the punitive amounts of interest it pays on its debt, making it easier to cut its budget deficit.

To increase Greece’s leverage, the country’s negotiators have said they could attach collective action clauses to the outstanding bonds, a step that would give them the legal right to saddle all bondholders with a loss (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/18/world/europe/papademos-says-greece-could-force-creditors-to-take-losses.html?_r=2). This would particularly be aimed at the so-called free riders — speculators who have said they will not agree to a haircut and are betting that when Greece receives its aid bundle in March, their bonds will be repaid in full.
rest at link.

[osoab]

Greece is saved! One hell of a drop in interest in one day.

390.18400 69.69300 15.16%

[osoab]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?h=200&w=280&range=1y&type=gp_line&cfg=BQuoteComp_10.xml&ticks=GGGB1YR%3AIND&img=png


Value 467.13
Open 446.27
High 467.13
Low 428.44

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GGGB1YR:IND

[BrewTech]

So when does the Greek 1 yr bond make it on to failblog?

[osoab]

Value 474.40
Change 7.269 (1.556%)
Open 457.88
High 492.85
Low 443.70

Damn near broke 500% today.

[osoab]

Value 467.59
Change -7.034 (-1.482%)
Open 476.48
High 520.94 :o :o :o
Low 452.38

[Spectrism]

Value 467.59
Change -7.034 (-1.482%)
Open 476.48
High 520.94 :o :o :o
Low 452.38

Is this bargain territory yet, or should I tell my barrister to hold out until 700?

[Neuro]

Is this bargain territory yet, or should I tell my barrister to hold out until 700?
Call me crazy, but I don't feel that this is in the bargain of a lifetime zone quite yet...

[Buddha]

Is this bargain territory yet, or should I tell my barrister to hold out until 700?

Between the Greek bonds and the Japanese CFO deal, you are looking to have a windfall year.

[osoab]

GGGB1YR:IND

510.08500 30.43500 6.35% As of 08:13:00 on 02/06/2012. All times are ET.


Open: 478.69700
High: 527.23600
Low: 476.21700

[Sparky]

I was just wondering...

When this thread is 1-year old, are we going to wish we had purchased Greek 1-year bonds at 96%? We're 5 months along now.

On September 7, 2011 silver was at $41, so it will need to reach $80 for a similar return.

[osoab]

Bullish?

Greek Economy Implodes: Budget Revenues Tumble 7% In January On Expectation Of 9% Rise (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/greek-economy-implodes-budget-revenues-tumble-7-january-expectation-9-rise)



The 1yr numbers currently.

521.64600 6.73800 1.28%
Open: 512.74700
High: 544.97100
Low: 512.74700

[osoab]

I was just wondering...

When this thread is 1-year old, are we going to wish we had purchased Greek 1-year bonds at 96%? We're 5 months along now.

On September 7, 2011 silver was at $41, so it will need to reach $80 for a similar return.


Yeah, but isn't the question the return of capital when talking about Greece rather than return on capital?

[Sparky]

Yeah, but isn't the question the return of capital when talking about Greece rather than return on capital?
Yes. But what I'm saying is that 5 months into this thread, you can still get your capital back with interest. If this sinking ship hangs on for another 7 months, you'd have been able to double your money in a year, get the hell out, and buy silver, or farmland, or whatever. Unless silver is at $80 next September, it will have been a better short term strategy for accumulating silver than actually buying silver last September. No way I would have done it, but I'm just saying it's funny how this stuff works out sometimes. Heck, they could default tomorrow and make this whole discussion moot, but at some point actually buying the bond may turn out to have been a profitable gamble, in spite of all the mockery we're heaping on it in this thread.

[madfranks]

Yes. But what I'm saying is that 5 months into this thread, you can still get your capital back with interest. If this sinking ship hangs on for another 7 months, you'd have been able to double your money in a year, get the hell out, and buy silver, or farmland, or whatever. Unless silver is at $80 next September, it will have been a better short term strategy for accumulating silver than actually buying silver last September. No way I would have done it, but I'm just saying it's funny how this stuff works out sometimes. Heck, they could default tomorrow and make this whole discussion moot, but at some point actually buying the bond may turn out to have been a profitable gamble, in spite of all the mockery we're heaping on it in this thread.

I agree with you, but that strategy is way too risky for my blood.

[Neuro]

Greek 1 year bonds trade at only 497.22% today!

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGGB1YR:IND

[osoab]

540.96100 35.36300 6.99% As of 08:07:00 ET on 02/15/2012.
More on GGGB1YR

Open: 537.55700
High: 560.95000
Low: 507.07200


Looks like Greece isn't saved.

Might need to start tracking the 2 year also.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/pictures/picture-5.jpg (http://www.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden)
Greek 2Y Yield Breaks 200% For First Time (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/greek-2y-yield-breaks-200-first-time)

[Steal]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=W8Ayb8P1LbU

[osoab]

Greece is fucked. First time over 600% on the one year.

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGGB1YR:IND

588.92500 60.88700 11.53% As of 08:58:00 ET on 02/16/2012.
More on GGGB1YR


Snapshot for Greece Govt Bond 1Year Yield (GGGB1YR)

Open: 601.46000 High: 629.07200 Low: 525.35000

[osoab]

From Denninger this morning.

Got Guns? (Greece) (http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=202109)


If there was ever a casus belli, it's here: (http://newspano.com/news/greek-rhetoric-turns-into-battle-of-wills)

(Financial Times) -- The battle of wills between Athens and its eurozone lenders has intensified, with Greece's finance minister accusing "forces in Europe" of pushing his country out of the euro while his German counterpart suggested postponing Greek elections and installing a new government without political parties.Installing?

Um, the people making the "suggestion" are not Greek. This is tantamount to calling for the taking over a nation's government by force, which is the very definition of an act of war.

Here's hoping that the Greeks have remembered where the tubular steel and lead were stashed, and that the Germans who are making such threats immediately and publicly retract them as under any reasonable interpretation those sorts of demands amount to a declaration of war and are inviting what typically comes in response to same.

[osoab]

GREEK DEFAULT EXCLUSIVE: SENIOR US BANKERS GIVEN EXPLICIT TIMETABLE FOR ATHENS DEFAULT (http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2012/02/16/greek-default-exclusive-senior-us-bankers-given-explicit-timetable-for-athens-default/)




A written document giving firm dates and detailed actions for a planned Greek default has been in the possession of two top Wall Street bank currency trading bosses since the second week in January. The Slog has separate but corroborative sources affirming the existence of the document, and a conviction among senior bank staff that – at least at the time – the plan represented “a timetable, not a contingency”. The plan gives a firm date of March 23rd for default to be announced after the close of business.


Senior bankers on Wall Street have been given detailed documentation setting out a timetable to Greek default, including firm dates and technical ‘orders’ about last use of the euro as a currency there. The revelation arrived at Slogger’s Roost last Monday, since when I have been trying to obtain corroboration. This arrived in the early hours of today (Thursday). One of the banks is Barclays Capital (Barcap) run by controversial figure Bob Diamond. The other must remain anonymous for the time being, in order to protect sources.

The document asserts that Greece will officially be declared in default by all the ratings agencies after the close of business on Friday march 23rd . At the weekend all Greek bank accounts will be frozen, with emergency measures detailed to prevent the flight of capital. Included in the paperwork is a list of very limited exceptions to the ‘no withdrawals’ order. All major banks ‘are instructed not to deal with euro exchange as of open of business in Greece on Monday 25th march. All Greek markets will close for one day ‘at least’.

As yet, I have been unable to establish the source of the documents. But one of my informants admitted, “I have strongly suggested to Greek business friends and clients that they sell up fast, do a sale and leaseback on property, empty bank accounts, and change to a hard currency.”

I have little doubt that such a critical path analysis leading to default in Athens can be easily brushed aside as contingency planning. But this is not the impression Slog sources were given: and its existence is bound to further raise suspicions in ClubMed about the real intentions of ‘EU Nord’, Washington and the Troika – especially the IMF. In particular, the alleged creation of the document both supports (and/or coincides closely with):

1. Washington going cold on further IMF funding
2. IMF intervention in the Athens debt talks
3. Persistent rumours surrounding Wolfgang Schauble’s plans
4. Evidence previously assembled by The Slog concerning Americo-German coordination
5. A string of delaying tactics by senior EU and Troika officials since mid January.

Reviewing the timeline of the Greek Debt Marathon, the back end of it is pretty obviously one of persistent sabotage from Berlin, Brussels, and the IMF:

1. It’s the second week of January 2012, and the bondholder deal is a few small steps away from lawyers crossing t’s and dotting i’s. Enter Schauble saying the haircut is nowhere near short enough. Bondholders’ leader Charles Dalloran walks out.
2. The Troika barges into the Athens/Bondholder talks, and they turn into chaos, then grind to a halt.
3. FinMinCom meets in Brussels and several encouraging noises are made about progress towards a deal ‘over the weekend’. Enter Merkel bearing demand to fire the Greek Government and replace it with an EU commissioner. This produces four more days of circular delay, following which Nicolas Sarkozy declares that the German demand was never a demand.
4. Lucas Papademos gets personally involved and strikes a deal with Dalloran. Then he extracts the support of all Party leaders for the deal. We’re almost there. Enter Schauble and Brussels saying no, your economy’s worse than we thought – we need a closer haircut and more savings.
5. The troika is now talking direct to the bondholders with Athens outside the loop. The creditors feel on the back foot. They agree to a lower percentage rate for the new bond issues and a 70% haircut. Venizelos meanwhile focuses on finding additional savings. Papademos intervenes again with leaders and creditors. We are now ‘hours away’. Mario Draghi says no, the haircut is too close for the ECB, and not enough for everyone else.
6. Draghi relents a little, the bondholders say they are “tentatively flexible”. We’re two small steps away from a deal. Enter Schauble moaning about £325m of savings unaccounted for…a thousandth of the total Greek debt.
6. Tempers get inflamed back in Athens. Greek leaders start muttering about doing what they have to do, getting the deal signed, and then having elections. Berlin and FinMinCom demand that all Greek Party leaders sign a document ordering them to stick to the deal regardless of election results. This loses another two days….but the bondholders are still keen to sign.
7. The German Bundesbank leaks a story to German newspaper Handelsblatt saying the Greeks will not be able to satisfy bondholder demands, and thus technical default is now a certainty. The story is traced back to the office of anti-bailout hawk Jens Weidmann.
8. Deutsche Mittelstands Nachtrichen runs a story claiming another 2.5 bn euro hole has been found in the Greek budget proposals. The story is deconstructed by The Slog and others and turns out to be complete bollocks. But the FinMinCom meeting in Brussels is postponed, and replaced with a conference call.
9. Merkel says she doesn’t trust New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras. Athenian leaders must now sign another pledge after the additional 325m euros of savings have been found and agreed. They all sign (Wednesday morning – yesterday – 15th February).
10. Yesterday afternoon, the EU finance ministers’ conference call begins to talk about cutting its losses. A firm proposal is tabled – by Berlin, it seems – to divide the next bailout tranche into smaller slices. The next Com meeting is put off for six days.
11. Schauble describes the Greek debt as “a bottomless pit”. Merkel joins the fray by suggesting the bailout be put back until after the April elections. This clearly makes no sense, as from March 16th Greece will be in technical default without more money. But Schauble adds that indeed, Greece should postpone its elections…..and “install a technocrat government similar to Italy’s.”
12. Wen Jiabao makes nice noises about what a fine place Europe is to visit, but van Rompuy and Barroso come away predictably empty-handed.
13. Thursday dawns with everyone wondering where we are. Venizelos accuses “forces trying to push Greece out of the eurozone”. German government spokesman Steffen Seibert calls this “false” and adds, “I can state quite clearly on behalf of the federal government that Germany has taken no such decision.” Nobody said you had, Ducky. Berlin briefs on amphetamines about Angela Merkel being ‘resolutely opposed to default’. A majority of market opinion leaders and bondholders think the EU is bluffing, reports the FT. But a French source tells The Slog earlier today he thinks Germany “is talking from a position of strength. There is no doubt in our minds [in the Elysees] that Berlin has the necessary plans in place.”

We’re but an hour into the working day EU time (1hr ahead of GMT) and already the main EU players are busy installing further roadblocks. Boss of radio Luxembourg Jean-Claude Juncker said, “Further considerations are necessary regarding the specific mechanisms to strengthen the surveillance of programme implementation and to ensure that priority is given to debt servicing.” An intention as vague as that could take forever to fulfil….or until March 23rd.

A senior German official quoted by Reuters has added: “Questions remain that are very important to Germany and other member states about the sustainability of the programme.”

Ultimately, not even the Germans can see into the future: this is get off the pot time….but only if you’ve been devious for some time about being on the pot in the first place. The Slog’s recent profile of Angela Merkel demonstrated beyond too much doubt that the Fuhrerine in Berlin is more than capable of being devious.

In the last three weeks, several EU officials have pumped out the line – over and over again – that Greek default is no longer the bogeyman people thought it was….or to be more precise, they told us it was. “It would have led to a credit crunch immediately and hurt us all,” said a senior eurozone official. “Now, the odds [of such a catastrophic impact] are something like 10-20%. It’s still possible, but it’s not a certainty.”

First of all Draghi pumps money into the banking system, then the Troika/Berlin axis slows everything down. Now awkward facts come to light about the existence of ‘a plan’ which would protect America – by dumping the Greek contagion – and help the eurozone by concentrating the bailout cash available to save the bigger players: Italy, Spain and France. An unpleasant phrase is doing the rounds in Brussels at the moment: ‘amputate and corterise’. It’s certainly beginning to look like that. And without doubt, that’s the way Mario Monti sees it.
Were I Greek, Portuguese or Irish, I’d be a worried man this morning.

Related: Italy’s Monti makes a play for Greece’s bailout cash. (http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2012/02/15/revealed-the-athens-budget-black-hole-that-never-was/)
The oddly self-serving rigidity of Angela Merkel. (http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2012/01/30/revealed-angela-merkel-rigid-serial-conformist/)

[Neuro]

23rd of March isn't it around that time the next huge ring of fire earthquake is expected too?

And it is the ides of March!

[mick silver]

if there telling us it going to take place in march then i would bet there lining there pockets with everthing they can get an take . and one more thing they have already defaulted just as all the banks in the world have done . thats why they running the printing press around the clock

[osoab]

Right around 548% yield currently


From ZH last night.

Market Slowly Figures Out ECB Fake Out Is Euro And Greece Negative As Greek 1 Year Bonds Hit 639% (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/market-slowly-figures-out-ecb-fake-out-euro-and-greece-negative-greek-1-year-bonds-hit-639)

[osoab]

23rd of March isn't it around that time the next huge ring of fire earthquake is expected too?

And it is the ides of March!

Also in the same time frame as Clif High's next turning point.
http://halfpasthuman.com/mediaunbound.html

[DMac]

Back to 629%

Greek 1 Year At 629%, Biggest One Day Jump In Yield Ever (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/greek-1-year-629-biggest-one-day-jump-yield-ever)

[osoab]

617.67900 11.72400 1.86% As of 07:56:00 ET on 02/20/2012.
More on GGGB1YR


Snapshot for Greece Govt Bond 1Year Yield (GGGB1YR)

Open: 607.33100
High: 666.81200
Low: 571.66200

[osoab]

Doesn't look like the bond market thinks Greece is saved with this latest bailout agreement.

Greece Govt Bond 1Year Yield

Add to Portfolio (http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGGB1YR:IND#)
GGGB1YR:IND

652.60000 37.45400 6.09% As of 06:45:00 ET on 02/21/2012.

Snapshot for Greece Govt Bond 1Year Yield (GGGB1YR)

Open: 566.81300
High: 682.32800
Low: 566.81300

[Neuro]

Potentially, buying this bond now could be a good deal, even if Greece defaults and in an accord they only end up paying 20 cents of every Euro of their debt, you will still come out good since you only payed about 13-14 cent for the nominal 1 Euro debt. If you get 30 cents (a 70% down write of Greek debt), you would more than double your investment. A 70% reduction in Greek debt would give a debt to GDP ratio for Greek at somewhere between 50-70%, which is way less than most countries in the western world has, but of course it is still doubtful whether Greece would be able to manage that with the downward spiral their economy is in, with tax rebellion etc...

[madfranks]

I'm not sure how a government's bonds could be maintaining a 600% one year yield and not collapse. Isn't this as clear as it gets that the bonds are junk? Why isn't everyone getting rid of their Greek debt?

[Son-of-Liberty]

Yeah this really doesn't make much sense at this point.

[Neuro]

I'm not sure how a government's bonds could be maintaining a 600% one year yield and not collapse. Isn't this as clear as it gets that the bonds are junk? Why isn't everyone getting rid of their Greek debt?
Everyone is getting rid of Greek debt. Right now it is sold at 13-14% of the value it had a year ago, that is why the interest rate is 600%! The Greek government is not issuing any new 1 year Greek bond with an interest rate of 600% on the open market. It is the old bonds that have gone down in value vs their nominal value, thus the interest appears at 600% or so...

[osoab]

I'm not sure how a government's bonds could be maintaining a 600% one year yield and not collapse. Isn't this as clear as it gets that the bonds are junk? Why isn't everyone getting rid of their Greek debt?


One would think that a 100% point move intraday would be enough to collapse Greece.

[Neuro]

Up to 735% right now! Did you manage to buy at 750 Spectrism?

[undgrd]

Fitch downgrades Greece on debt swap plan
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/22/greece-fitch-idUSL5E8DM6IA20120222

[osoab]

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/pictures/picture-5.jpg (http://www.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden)
Greek 1 Year Hits 763% (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/greek-1-year-hits-763)

[osoab]

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/pictures/picture-5.jpg (http://www.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden)
It's Official - Greece Unveils The Negative Salary, And A Whole New Meaning For "Pay To Play" (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/its-official-greece-unveils-negative-salary)

Coming to a state near you.


..............................

High yield hit 770%

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGGB1YR:IND

GGGB1YR:IND

723.48200 70.88200 10.86% As of 11:27:00 ET on 02/22/2012.
More on GGGB1YR

Snapshot for Greece Govt Bond 1Year Yield (GGGB1YR)

Open: 638.18500
High: 770.48100
Low: 638.18500

[osoab]

Doesn't look like Greece gets to keep its Gold.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/pictures/picture-5.jpg (http://www.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden)
Negative Salaries, Negative Bailout And Now Negative Gold - Greece Just Became The Bankster's Paradise (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/negative-salaries-negative-bailout-and-now-negative-gold-greece-just-became-banksters-paradise)




Ms. Katseli, an economist who was labor minister in the government of George Papandreou until she left in a cabinet reshuffle last June, was also upset that Greece’s lenders will have the right to seize the gold reserves in the Bank of Greece under the terms of the new deal.

[osoab]

Broke over 800% yield overnight.



http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGGB1YR:IND

GGGB1YR:IND

733.45300 19.49600 2.59% As of 08:18:00 ET on 02/23/2012.
More on GGGB1YR


Snapshot for Greece Govt Bond 1Year Yield (GGGB1YR)

Open: 730.81700
High: 819.81500
Low: 669.02000

[madfranks]

This has got to be the end for Greece then, I just don't see how you come back from this.

Unless, of course, they secede from the EU and start printing Drachmas to cover the debt...?

[DMac]

This has got to be the end for Greece then, I just don't see how you come back from this.

Unless, of course, they secede from the EU and start printing Drachmas to cover the debt...?


Slightly rhetorical question:

Weren't both ww1 and ww2 fought over this same scenario..? Bond payment failure, confiscation, escalation etc

[osoab]

Almost broke 900% this morning.

GGGB1YR:IND

866.00200 123.62100 16.65% As of 08:20:00 ET on 03/01/2012.
More on GGGB1YR

Open: 738.06400
High: 899.25000
Low: 717.24100

.........

Another related Greece story.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/pictures/picture-5.jpg (http://www.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden)
ISDA Unanimous - No Payout On Greek CDS (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/isda-unanimous-no-payout-greek-cds)

[osoab]

Spoke too soon.

Broke 920% for a high today. That is a 200 percentage point swing from high to low today.

GGGB1YR:IND

830.79400 88.41300 11.91% As of 08:38:00 ET on 03/01/2012.
More on GGGB1YR
Open: 738.06400
High: 920.19400
Low: 717.24100

[DMac]

Spoke too soon.

Broke 920% for a high today. That is a 200 percentage point swing from high to low today.

GGGB1YR:IND

830.79400 88.41300 11.91% As of 08:38:00 ET on 03/01/2012.
More on GGGB1YR
Open: 738.06400
High: 920.19400
Low: 717.24100

I'm going all in if it breaks 1000%! How could I lose!!!!!

[osoab]

Almost 1000% yield. Probably break 1000 on Monday. I bet tomorrow will see a drop in the yield.

GGGB1YR:IND

881.44500 139.06400 18.73% As of 11:02:00 ET on 03/01/2012.
More on GGGB1YR

Snapshot for Greece Govt Bond 1Year Yield (GGGB1YR)

Open: 738.06400
High: 978.19600
Low: 717.24100

[Sparky]

Potentially, buying this bond now could be a good deal, even if Greece defaults and in an accord they only end up paying 20 cents of every Euro of their debt, you will still come out good since you only payed about 13-14 cent for the nominal 1 Euro debt. If you get 30 cents (a 70% down write of Greek debt), you would more than double your investment. A 70% reduction in Greek debt would give a debt to GDP ratio for Greek at somewhere between 50-70%, which is way less than most countries in the western world has, but of course it is still doubtful whether Greece would be able to manage that with the downward spiral their economy is in, with tax rebellion etc...

I don't think this is how it works. My guess is that they negotiate the write-down deal with major holders (i.e. banks), and everyone else is hung out to dry. Or perhaps the negotiated deal is only on bonds issued prior to a certain date, which would exclude these extraordinarily high yield issues.

[Sparky]

I'm not sure how a government's bonds could be maintaining a 600% one year yield and not collapse. Isn't this as clear as it gets that the bonds are junk? Why isn't everyone getting rid of their Greek debt?

They are. That's why the yield on new issues is 900%.

So current buyers are gambling on an unknown outcome. One scenario would be a secession from the Euro, and a return to the drachma at a 80% de-valuation, which still give you a chance to double your money. Or lose all of it. It's like a lottery ticket.

[Sparky]

A more far-reaching issue is if/how the holders of derivatives would be paid. My guess is that will also be a negotiation involving the Bank of International Settlements. If they ignore the CDO's, the derivatives market will implode. If they trigger the full payment, the derivatives market will implode. Bet on a vague, murky partial settlement, dragged out over a long period of time, that prevents a clear market signal for CDO holders to all rush to the exit at the same time.

Cramer had a decent analogy this morning regarding CDO holders, which is basically insurance on default. Imagine if your house burned down and you went to collect on your insurance, and your insurer said that it wasn't a qualifying fire event.

[Neuro]

I don't think this is how it works. My guess is that they negotiate the write-down deal with major holders (i.e. banks), and everyone else is hung out to dry. Or perhaps the negotiated deal is only on bonds issued prior to a certain date, which would exclude these extraordinarily high yield issues.You could certainly be right! It could be a total default on investors outside the club. Another reason for the low price on Greek debt could be that the very uncertainties that you bring up is the reason no-one wants to buy Greek debt...Which could make it a very good deal. Essentially the 1 year bond is now sold for 10 cents a Euro. The interesting thing is that the European leaders have done everything to keep Greece in the Euro mash during the last year, and still the bondholders have been überscrewed. Probably if Greece had done a bankruptcy restructuring a year ago bondholders would have gotten something like 50-70%, Greece would have been in recovery. But now the bondholders are down 90%, and Greek economy is in total freefall!

[osoab]

A more far-reaching issue is if/how the holders of derivatives would be paid. My guess is that will also be a negotiation involving the Bank of International Settlements. If they ignore the CDO's, the derivatives market will implode. If they trigger the full payment, the derivatives market will implode. Bet on a vague, murky partial settlement, dragged out over a long period of time, that prevents a clear market signal for CDO holders to all rush to the exit at the same time.

Cramer had a decent analogy this morning regarding CDO holders, which is basically insurance on default. Imagine if your house burned down and you went to collect on your insurance, and your insurer said that it wasn't a qualifying fire event.

I linked this story above.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/pictures/picture-5.jpg (http://www.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden)
ISDA Unanimous - No Payout On Greek CDS (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/isda-unanimous-no-payout-greek-cds)

Since it is the same banks that have to pay out on the CDO's/CDS's, why would they lose money paying out? They can just claim that no default occurred.

edit this was just posted on ZeroHedge.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/pictures/picture-5.jpg (http://www.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden)
ISDA's Take On Lack Of Greek CDS Trigger: "We Think The Credit Event/DC Process Is Fair, Transparent And Well-Tested" (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/isdas-take-lack-greek-cds-trigger-we-think-credit-eventdc-process-fair-transparent-and-well-tes)

[Sparky]

I linked this story above.
...

Since it is the same banks that have to pay out on the CDO's/CDS's, why would they lose money paying out? They can just claim that no default occurred..
...
Thanks for the links. The first one seems to confirm my suspicion that they will keep it all vague, since they are saying that they don't think there is a current triggering event, but ask them again tomorrow and they might have a different answer.

Although it is banks paying banks, they don't all have the same net position, so it can be presumed there would be winners and losers. The potential losers have to convince the potential winners that it's not worth collecting their winnings, since it would jeopardize future revenue streams into CDO's. In other words, if you collect the golden egg, you'll kill the goose.

If there is no event, one has to wonder what this will do to the CDO market. What exactly are you buying?

[osoab]

Close to 1000% yield.

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGGB1YR:IND

GGGB1YR:IND

929.68900 63.43000 7.32% As of 07:55:00 ET on 03/02/2012.
More on GGGB1YR

Snapshot for Greece Govt Bond 1Year Yield (GGGB1YR)

Open: 907.36500
High: 988.13500
Low: 867.79200

[Neuro]

Why doesn't the industry have Default Swaps for Credit Default Swaps? I bet those buying CDS's and didn't demand DSCDS's start to feel very stupid now! ;D

[Spectrism]

This puppy jumped right through the 700% range. Whatta bargain? How high can this wonderful deal go?

[Neuro]

This puppy jumped right through the 700% range. Whatta bargain? How high can this wonderful deal go?
How high can you count? ;D

[mick silver]

didnt a bank here carry something if your bet went south you got payed for the lost ? so what would stop a group of big banks from doing this to make money on a bet that they know they can never get back the money they bet on greek

[Sparky]

Why doesn't the industry have Default Swaps for Credit Default Swaps? I bet those buying CDS's and didn't demand DSCDS's start to feel very stupid now! ;D
You joke, but I think they have these, which is how the derivatives market was able to run up to a half quadrillion dollar clu$terfvk.

[osoab]

1000% is here.


GGGB1YR:IND

1,006.66100
+97.91000
+10.77%
As of 05:52:00 ET on 03/05/2012.


Snapshot for Greece Govt Bond 1Year Yield (GGGB1YR)

Open: 971.12000
High: 1,006.66100
Low: 971.12000

[osoab]

Took just about 6 months to go from 100% yield to 1000% yield.
http://gold-silver.us/forum/showthread.php?53943-Greek-1-yr-bond-sitting-at-96.95-yield-currently.&p=457632&viewfull=1#post457632

Will 2000% occur in 3 months?

[Spectrism]

1000% is here.


GGGB1YR:IND

1,006.66100
+97.91000
+10.77%
As of 05:52:00 ET on 03/05/2012.


Snapshot for Greece Govt Bond 1Year Yield (GGGB1YR)

Open: 971.12000
High: 1,006.66100
Low: 971.12000


Amazing! We watch this play out before our eyes. And faster will Amerika fall when the time is fixed. Amerika will be different in that Amerika is independent in creating its own fake money. This allows the extend & pretend techniques to linger as governments will savagely look for wealth to steal anywhere they can find it. Desperation will happen at government and personal levels as each fight for survival.

[osoab]

Greece Govt Bond 1Year Yield

Add to Portfolio (http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGGB1YR:IND#)
GGGB1YR:IND

1,102.42900 153.02300 16.12% As of 07:42:00 ET on 03/07/2012.


Snapshot for Greece Govt Bond 1Year Yield (GGGB1YR)

Open: 979.67000
High: 1,114.49300
Low: 965.07400

[Neuro]

Took just about 6 months to go from 100% yield to 1000% yield.
http://gold-silver.us/forum/showthread.php?53943-Greek-1-yr-bond-sitting-at-96.95-yield-currently.&p=457632&viewfull=1#post457632

Will 2000% occur in 3 months?I doubt it will take that long. The high was 1164% today. I just read on Bloomberg that the Greek government will try to force the bondholders with new issues with a 53% cut on the nominal value, but with later maturities and lower interest rate, which means you may have to wait a couple of years or more (if ever) before the Greek government reimburses you for bonds maturing this year.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-07/investors-with-39-of-greek-debt-agree-to-join-in-swap-iif-says.html

[mick silver]

i would not hold my breath to ever get my money back . just aint going to happen . so what the stock market here doing today ?

[osoab]

Greece Issues Statement On PSI, Says €172 Billion Of Bonds Tendered In Swap, Will Enact CACs, ISDA To Meet At 1pm To Find If CDS Trigger (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/greece-issues-statement-psi-says-%E2%82%AC172-billion-bonds-tendered-swap-will-enact-cacs)


Submitted by Tyler Durden (http://www.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden) on 03/09/2012 - 01:04

The biggest sovereign debt restructuring in history is now, well, history. The headlines are finally come in:


GREECE ISSUES STATEMENT ON DEBT SWAP
GREECE COMPLETES DEBT SWAP
GREECE SAYS EU172 BLN OF BONDS TENDERED IN SWAP
GREECE GETS TENDERS, CONSENTS FROM HOLDERS OF 85.8%
GREECE SAYS 69% OF NON-GREEK LAW BONDHOLDERS PARTICIPATED

We learn that €152 of the €177 billion in Greek law bonds have tendered, which is 85.8%. This means that €25 billion in Greek law bonds have not - these are the hedge funds that could not be Steven Rattnered into participating, and will now sue Greece for par recoveries.This is also the number that ISDA will look at today to determine if, in conjunction with the CAC, means a credit event has occurred. And yes, the CACs are coming, as is the Credit Event finding:


GREECE SAYS WILL AMEND TERMS OF GREEK LAW BONDS FOR ALL HOLDERS



Anyone want to bet that ISDA does not find this to be a credit event?

[osoab]

Look at the spread today in the 1 year.

Greece Govt Bond 1Year Yield

Add to Portfolio (http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGGB1YR:IND#)
GGGB1YR:IND

1,143.11900 122.35100 11.99% As of 02:45:00 ET on 03/09/2012.

Snapshot for Greece Govt Bond 1Year Yield (GGGB1YR)

Open: 808.78100
High: 1,143.11900
Low: 808.78100

[Neuro]

Interest rate skyrockets up to 1143% after Greece forces private bondholders to accept new bonds at 30% of face value of old bonds...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-09/greece-debt-swap-tops-95-level-to-trigger-forced-bondholder-participation.html

[osoab]

Well is this thread dead now?

The 1 yr doesn't look like it is trading anymore.

Do we move on to the rest of the PIIGS?

[osoab]

Looks like I posted just a bit early.

The new Greek bonds have started to trade.

Looks like just the 2 year is trading?

The Selling Of (New) Greek Bonds Has Resumed (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/selling-new-greek-bonds-has-resumed)



Second day of trading in the new Greek bonds (GGB2). It took a whopping 24 hours for the selling to resume. Per BNP "Market heavy."




Year Mat Bid Ask CoD Yld Size
11Y 2023 26.00 / 28.00 -0.8 18.9 3MX3M 20 Bond Package*: 23.2 / 24.2 10MX10M
12Y 2024 25.25 / 27.25 -0.7 18.3 3MX3M GDP Warrant: 0.8 / 1.1 20MX20M
13Y 2025 24.50 / 26.50 -1.0 17.9 3MX3M
14Y 2026 24.00 / 26.00 -1.0 17.4 3MX3M Implicit Old GGB : 21.9 / 23.9 10MX10M
15Y 2027 23.75 / 25.75 -1.0 17.0 3MX3M
16Y 2028 23.55 / 25.55 -1.0 16.5 3MX3M *: weighted or un-weighted
17Y 2029 23.35 / 25.35 -1.0 16.2 3MX3M
18Y 2030 23.15 / 25.15 -1.0 15.9 3MX3M
19Y 2031 22.95 / 24.95 -1.0 15.7 3MX3M
20Y 2032 22.75 / 24.75 -1.0 15.5 3MX3M
21Y 2033 22.60 / 24.60 -0.9 15.3 3MX3M
22Y 2034 22.50 / 24.50 -0.8 15.1 3MX3M
23Y 2035 22.50 / 24.50 -0.7 14.9 3MX3M
24Y 2036 22.50 / 24.50 -0.6 14.7 3MX3M
25Y 2037 22.50 / 24.50 -0.5 14.6 3MX3M
26Y 2038 22.50 / 24.50 -0.5 14.4 3MX3M
27Y 2039 22.50 / 24.50 -0.5 14.3 3MX3M
28Y 2040 22.50 / 24.50 -0.5 14.2 3MX3M
29Y 2041 22.50 / 24.50 -0.5 14.1 3MX3M
30Y 2042 22.50 / 24.50 -0.5 14.0 3MX3M