How close is JP Morgan To Collapse?

[Large Sarge]

http://dont-tread-on.me/how-close-is-jp-morgan-to-collapse/


How close is JP Morgan To Collapse?
By Gareth, on September 9th, 2011
By: Mike Robinson

In January 2007, Bear Stearns was worth $20 billion. By Friday, 14th March, 2008, it was worth $3.5 billion. Three days later, on Monday, 17th March, it was bought by JP Morgan for $236 million.

At the time, it was assumed that this collossal collapse was due to “just” the so-called mortgage crisis. But earlier this year, accusations emerged that former Bear executives, now working for Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Ally Financial, were defrauding investors through the mortgage securities they created and sold while at Bear.

According to emails and internal documentation, JP Morgan has known about this fraud since they took ownership of Bear in 2008, but deliberately hid that information from the public.

In 2008, US mortgage insurer Ambax Assurance Corp, filed a lawsuit against Bear Stearns and JP Morgan. In the court bundle were emails going back to 2005, highlighting Bear Stearns traders telling their superiors that they were selling investors like Ambac a “sack of shit”.

Unfortunately for JP Morgan, in May of 2010, a number of whistleblowers stepped forward, telling stories of falsifying loan performance data, and senior traders pocketing cash that should have gone to investors.

In January of this year, JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon said it would take years to get through all the mortgage litigation risk that the bank has inherited when it bought Bear Stearns, and that they had set aside $9 billion for litigation related risk.

According to freelance financial investigative journalist Teri Buhl, a dozen or more new whistleblowers have come forward to the authorities. JP Morgan is “showing signs of fear”, she says, as Morgan’s lawyers continue to try to cover up the criminality that took place at Bear Stearns.

JP Morgan is right to be worried. It has a rumoured $1 trillion of ex-BS off the balance sheet worthless paper sitting on its back. Should that be confirmed as a result of the ongoing investigation, JP Morgan will see its “market value” move very quickly towards its true value – zero.

Is JP Morgan too big to fail?

Original article at the UK Column

[gunDriller]

i wonder if the answer is right there on their balance sheet

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=JPM+Balance+Sheet&annual

$1400 Billion in Current Liabilities.

$400 Billion in Current Assets.

STATED net income of $5 Billion.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=JPM

when you're $1 Trillion in the hole and have a quarterly income of $5 Billion - it will take you 200 quarters = 50 years to make it up.


the odd thing is, their stock market cap is $125 Billion - normally not the sign of a sick company.

[Large Sarge]

they had a story on j.P. Morgan on bloomberg this morning, it was "panic mode"

Stock was under $31

and Jamie Dimon was scrambling to explain why, said it was these "new banking rules" (no mention of massive, unobtainable silver short position, no surprise there)

[Sparky]

JPM is an extension of the Fed. They won't be going under.

[Libertarian_Guard]

JPM is an extension of the Fed. They won't be going under.

True.

Ugly will take-on a new meaning if they 'must' be bailed out.

So, I guess the game of 'kick the can' will continue, as JPM seems to have more than 9 lives.

[gunDriller]

they had a story on j.P. Morgan on bloomberg this morning, it was "panic mode"

Stock was under $31

and Jamie Dimon was scrambling to explain why, said it was these "new banking rules" (no mention of massive, unobtainable silver short position, no surprise there)

it's hard to get the exact numbers for their short position.

but let's say they're 100% naked, and they've agreed to deliver all their silver for $35 an ounce, and that JPM comprises ALL of the commercial shorts in the CFTC COT report.

for September 6, total shorts for large commercials was 77,869, from
http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/

even if JPM had all those contracts, and had to pay $55 an ounce to acquire the physical, they would be out 78,000 x 5000 x $20 = $7,800,000,000 - it would cost lest than $8 Billion to fill all their naked short contracts.

i used bigger numbers to make it "conservative" from the point of view of over-estimating JPM's exposure.

i don't think they'd have a problem coming up with $8 Billion in paper money.


i'm not saying that their market manipulation is smart or moral or anything, just that it doesn't expose them to that much financial liability.

[Neuro]

It would be more diffcult for them to find 390 million ounces of silver. I doubt $55 would be a sufficient average price for that purpose in the hypothetical scenario, anyhow I have read previously that the shorts on Comex is only a fraction of their total exposure, most of is/may be in OTC-derivatives, where the losses could be in multiples of dollars for each dollar above $35. But I have no way of knowing if that may be true...

[Large Sarge]

it's hard to get the exact numbers for their short position.

but let's say they're 100% naked, and they've agreed to deliver all their silver for $35 an ounce, and that JPM comprises ALL of the commercial shorts in the CFTC COT report.

for September 6, total shorts for large commercials was 77,869, from
http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/

even if JPM had all those contracts, and had to pay $55 an ounce to acquire the physical, they would be out 78,000 x 5000 x $20 = $7,800,000,000 - it would cost lest than $8 Billion to fill all their naked short contracts.

i used bigger numbers to make it "conservative" from the point of view of over-estimating JPM's exposure.

i don't think they'd have a problem coming up with $8 Billion in paper money.


i'm not saying that their market manipulation is smart or moral or anything, just that it doesn't expose them to that much financial liability.



ok,

using your numbers form harvey organ.

78,000 open positions.

78,000 * 5,000 = 390,000,000 ounces

390 million ounces.

total silver mined last year 735 million ounces.

so that is probably 7 months total world production of silver, when silver is already running 20% annual deficits in silver... (demand for silver last year was almost 900 million ounces)

you think anyone can find almost 400 million ounces of silver on the open market?

I kind of doubt it myself.....

[Large Sarge]

I think $8 billion for that open position is kind of "pie in the sky"


most of those 400 million ounces are probably acquired at over $100 an ounce

[Serpo]

It would be more diffcult for them to find 390 million ounces of silver. I doubt $55 would be a sufficient average price for that purpose in the hypothetical scenario, anyhow I have read previously that the shorts on Comex is only a fraction of their total exposure, most of is/may be in OTC-derivatives, where the losses could be in multiples of dollars for each dollar above $35. But I have no way of knowing if that may be true...

Yes I remember that now , everything is x8 above 35$ I think

[wrs]

Actually I think it's $36. You can google Wynter Benton for more details.

[Sparky]

I think $8 billion for that open position is kind of "pie in the sky"


most of those 400 million ounces are probably acquired at over $100 an ounce

Just to keep this in perspective so that you guys understand what it would require to take down JPM:

Even at $100/ounce (which is unlikely, because some of the ounce would be at $45 before they drove the price up), it would cost them $40B.

According to their latest quarterly report, JPM's gross profit was $103B. Their market capitalization is $126B. They have $877B of cash on hand.

Be happy they have those resources. If they didn't and they had to default their short silver position, it would be taken as a paper loss, and their would be no need to cover the physical. As a matter of fact, that would still be a likely scenario before they drove silver to $100 by covering their short.

I will also point out that the greatest drivers of gold and silver being lifted to huge prices are the hated GLD and SLV. It's what got gold to $1900 and silver to $48.

[Large Sarge]

I am unsure how high taking 400 million ounces off the market would push silver.

Buffett, it appears from this article, never even took delivery of his silver

http://quicktake.wordpress.com/2008/10/15/the-story-behind-buffetts-silver-purchases/

in 2009, it took Eric Sprott 9 months to find 90 million ounces (and he went to the miners/refiners directly, avoiding the exchanges, to speed up the process)

how long to find 400 million ounces?

[gunDriller]

According to their latest quarterly report, JPM's gross profit was $103B. Their market capitalization is $126B. They have $877B of cash on hand.


413,708,000

adding 000

that's $413 Billion in cash, quarter ended June 30.

that is their latest quarterly report.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=JPM


where did you get the $877B cash-on-hand number ?

[Neuro]

Is JP Morgan too big to fail?Maybe it is becoming too big to SAVE?