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Gaillo
23rd September 2011, 06:54 AM
Hold on for the ride folks, the bloodbath isn't over yet:


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/treasurys-gain-as-stocks-head-lower-again-2011-09-23-839350


By Deborah Levine, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Treasury prices rose Friday, pushing yields further down to record lows, as equities fell in Europe and U.S. stock futures pointed to additional selling on Wall Street on worries about European banks as well as continued fears that the Federal Reserve sees the economy slowing.

These factors boosted interest in U.S. debt as an alternative.

Yields on 10-year notes 10_YEAR -0.70% , which move inversely to prices, fell 5 basis points to 1.68%, setting a new low. A basis point is 1/100th of a percentage point.

Central banks need to take action
If the Group of 20 doesn't take action to restore investor confidence soon, deleveraging will continue and markets remain volatile.

Yields on 30-year bonds 30_YEAR -1.43% *fell 6 basis points to 2.75%, also extending an impressive move. In the last two days, the yield has fallen by the most since the height of the credit crisis in late 2008. Read about recent gains for 30-year bonds.

Yields on 2-year notes 2_YEAR -1.93% declined 2 basis points to 0.19%.

“If risk assets here and abroad are being dumped, the money has to go somewhere,” said David Ader, head of U.S. government bond strategy at CRT Capital Group.

Investors were also looking to international policy makers for solutions to Europe’s debt crisis a day after worries over world growth prospects triggered a global equity rout. An unexpected joint statement late Thursday from finance ministers and central-bank governors from the Group of 20 major economies only briefly lifted hope before the statement was deemed lacking in specifics and a time frame for acton.


Looks like everyone is looking for a .gov/central bank bailout as a "fix" for the problem, as if that's the new norm! :o

Cebu_4_2
23rd September 2011, 07:44 AM
Fuk the markets, I messed up and lost pretty much 40 years of gains +. Who cares about tresuries or the banks, this is such a farce they should be hanged on trees and put out of my misery.

mick silver
23rd September 2011, 10:14 AM
Wednesday, September 21, 2011

THE NEXT SELLING WAVE IS ABOUT TO BEGIN



As many of you already know I expected the dollar index to put in a major three year cycle low sometime this year. The normal timing band would have been for a bottom in the spring. The recent breakout and move to new highs has confirmed that the May bottom did in fact mark the three year cycle low. As expected that also marked the top of the cyclical bull market in stocks.


http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-AY8rx0XxqpA/Tnnh_OBdw9I/AAAAAAAAA5Y/H6yQI0qNwmk/s1600/spx+dollar.png (http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-AY8rx0XxqpA/Tnnh_OBdw9I/AAAAAAAAA5Y/H6yQI0qNwmk/s1600/spx+dollar.png)
It's widely expected that the Fed will announce operation Twist at today's FOMC meeting. Obviously if printing several trillion dollars didn't save the economy, then rotating the Fed's balance sheet from short-term interest rates to long-term in the attempt to hold down the long end of the yield curve isn't going to have any effect at all as the approaching recession intensifies. Interest rates are already at historic lows.

Interest rates aren't the reason why people are not borrowing.With continued high unemployment There simply isn't enough demand for businesses to expand their operations. The American consumer is so deeply in debt that he can't service it. Unfortunately, we can't print money like the US government so it doesn't help us to go deeper into debt. The US consumer will not be borrowing money any time soon.

The bottom line is operation twist will be a miserable failure just like QE1 and QE2.

The stock market, and gold are now moving into the timing band for the next daily cycle low (selling event). The only question now is whether the announcement of operation Twist this afternoon will initiate a short term knee-jerk reaction higher, or whether the market will immediately continue to sell off into that next cycle low that is due to bottom sometime in the next 11 days.


http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-FDtnauJ9aH8/TnniFtDQXKI/AAAAAAAAA5c/X6mMSp-UXKQ/s1600/spx+cycle.png (http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-FDtnauJ9aH8/TnniFtDQXKI/AAAAAAAAA5c/X6mMSp-UXKQ/s1600/spx+cycle.png)
I expect gold to bottom a little sooner as its daily cycle tends to be slightly shorter.


http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-0QlUGh-IABg/TnniMR5H2hI/AAAAAAAAA5g/Nfp2EP2Bc7g/s1600/gold.png (http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-0QlUGh-IABg/TnniMR5H2hI/AAAAAAAAA5g/Nfp2EP2Bc7g/s1600/gold.png)
But gold also is at a critical stage. It must hold above the prior daily cycle low of $1705. If it fails to do that it will signal that an intermediate degree decline has begun. It would also signal a left translated intermediate cycle which would have high odds of moving below the prior intermediate degree bottom of $1478.

As you can see in the chart below gold began to struggle just as soon as the aggressive stage of the dollar rally began.


http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ziXe8LyYfs8/TnniSIGgX1I/AAAAAAAAA5k/VtcjfGYyU4s/s1600/dollar+gold.png (http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ziXe8LyYfs8/TnniSIGgX1I/AAAAAAAAA5k/VtcjfGYyU4s/s1600/dollar+gold.png)

As the stock market moves down into the next daily cycle low and the selling pressure intensifies, this should drive the dollar index much higher. It remains to be seen if gold can reverse this pattern of weakness in the face of dollar strength, especially since the dollar will almost certainly be rallying violently during the intense selling pressure that is coming in the stock market.

All we can do now is wait to see what the initial reaction to operation Twist will be this afternoon. Will there be a temporary knee-jerk rally that quickly fails, or will the market just continue down after yeste

Son-of-Liberty
23rd September 2011, 10:20 AM
I don't know how anyone could buy treasurys. At rates this low it is absurd. 0.2% for a 2 year? Yeah you will get your money back but with inflation it won't be worth anything.

mick silver
23rd September 2011, 10:25 AM
i would not be worry about making money i would be more worry about if was to ever got my money back i put up for the bonds