B of A & Merrill "another U.S. Debt Downgrade just weeks away"

[Large Sarge]

this is a huge one folks.....

watch the dollar plummet just on the rumor this week....


http://www.businessinsider.com/


US rating likely to be downgraded again- Merrill


U.S. to be hit by another debt downgrade in just a few weeks warns

[Large Sarge]

for those who do not remember, during the first debt downgrade, Gold went from $1500 to over $1900 in 4 weeks or so

almost a 30% move up, all in record territory, and all in under 1 month.

all from the debt downgrade.

this next downgrade takes us over $2000.00 IMO

this is a big event here folks

[Joe King]

Will silver just sit there again, watching from the sidelines? lol

[Large Sarge]

I expect Silver to really move, as the supply shortages are acute.


more follow up, by first week of december it will be official...

Reuters) - The United States will likely suffer the loss of its triple-A credit rating from another major rating agency by the end of this year due to concerns over the deficit, Bank of America Merrill Lynch forecasts.

The trigger would be a likely failure by Congress to agree on a credible long-term plan to cut the U.S. deficit, the bank said in a research note published on Friday.
A second downgrade -- either from Moody's or Fitch -- would follow Standard & Poor's downgrade in August on concerns about the government's budget deficit and rising debt burden. A second loss of the country's top credit rating would be an additional blow to the sluggish U.S. economy, Merrill said.
"The credit rating agencies have strongly suggested that further rating cuts are likely if Congress does not come up with a credible long-run plan" to cut the deficit, Merrill's North American economist, Ethan Harris, wrote in the report.
"Hence, we expect at least one credit downgrade in late November or early December when the super committee crashes,"
Read more:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/23/us-usa-rating-merrill-idUSTRE79M2J120111023

[sunshine05]

It's just incredible that our govt is sitting back and allowing this to happen. Criminal.

RP brought this up on Meet the Press this morning.

[Large Sarge]

Will silver just sit there again, watching from the sidelines? lol

and for the record, this time last year silver was around $23

sitting at $30+ in 1 year

looks like another 30%+ gain yearly for silver...

"sitting there doing nothing"

[Spectrism]

How does a credit downgrade mean a drop in the dollar? When answering this, remember that none of the old rules apply.

[Large Sarge]

How does a credit downgrade mean a drop in the dollar? When answering this, remember that none of the old rules apply.

look, what we all have to remember, and this is not bragging ok, (well a little bit), is that most investors are sheep.

and while we here at GIM/GS-US have known the fundamentals of the dollar for quite awhile, or known the real story on 9/11, or chemtrails, or the gulf oil disaster, or lot of other things.

the sad reality is that we are in the small minority, and most folks get their news and info from the MSM and the govt.

so until someone (like moody's or fitchs or over the summer S & P) tells them "things are not ok", they really have no idea.

so what is does do is destroys investor confidence, causes a panic out of dollars, into Gold.

thats my take on it, if people did think for themselves, and did not use mainstream sources for info, we would never get "the mania" phase in any bull market.

but they want to be part of the herd, feel safe, and be told what to do and think....

so when they are told really bad news, they will react as required....

[Joe King]

and for the record, this time last year silver was around $23

sitting at $30+ in 1 year

looks like another 30%+ gain yearly for silver...

"sitting there doing nothing"I was referring to golds big move a couple months ago when people here on this very forum that you read, were lamenting the fact that it was just sitting there watching the action from its $40 seat.

Did you miss all that? If so, sorry, but I thought you were around these parts back in August.

[vacuum]

So far its playing out as last time. They told us they were going to do it, they did it, and gold went way up.

Now they're telling us they are going to do it again...

[Large Sarge]

I was referring to golds big move a couple months ago when people here on this very forum that you read, were lamenting the fact that it was just sitting there watching the action from its $40 seat.

Did you miss all that? If so, sorry, but I thought you were around these parts back in August.

year on year (except for the 2008-09 deflation), silver has averaged 30% return yearly
Gold has averaged 20%

thats the reality.

Also, silver started the party 2 years behind gold in 2003, versus gold in 2001.

if you are around here next year, you can bad mouth silver some more, when it will be 30% higher in price than today....

and I will ask you to name a few more asset classes performing at that level...

I am sure the silence will be deafening....

[Joe King]

year on year (except for the 2008-09 deflation), silver has averaged 30% return yearly
Gold has averaged 20%

thats the reality.

Also, silver started the party 2 years behind gold in 2003, versus gold in 2001.

if you are around here next year, you can bad mouth silver some more, when it will be 30% higher in price than today....

and I will ask you to name a few more asset classes performing at that level...

I am sure the silence will be deafening....I'm not bad mouthing it. Just pointing out what was going on during time period relative to your post about gold being on a tear going from $1600 to $1900 in short order. Do you not remember people posting on this very forum about how silver was just sitting there?

I was using the context that you provided. ie the time frame during August. Quit trying to change it to YTD

[Large Sarge]

I'm not bad mouthing it. Just pointing out what was going on during time period relative to your post about gold being on a tear going from $1600 to $1900 in short order. Do you not remember people posting on this very forum about how silver was just sitting there?

I was using the context that you provided. ie the time frame during August. Quit trying to change it to YTD

silver moves at different times relative to gold,

usually gold leads, and silver follows.

when the GSR tightens up (gets smaller) it is signalling the move is ending for both metals, also when silver starts leading gold, that is a signal that the move is ending...

r u a 3 month investor? is that your timeline?

back in 2009 you could buy silver for $9-$11 dollars

with silver over $30 today, thats 200%+ in 2.5 years

and what seems to not be widely known, is that there are 2+ ounces of gold, for every one ounce of silver available....

mr market will figure that out soon, and price it accordingly....

[Awoke]

IMO, silver is sitting there doing nothing.

afaic it should have been well over $50 months ago, and imo the only reason it isn't is because of blatant manipulation.

But I am no economist, so whatever.

[Neuro]

Will silver just sit there again, watching from the sidelines? lol
Doubt it PGM's have started heating up, indicating a return for industrial PM's, silver is a slow starter. But in the run up until May this year Silver was running and gold was sitting on the sidelines waiting. Gold was doing well in the runup to the sovereign default autumn, but the central banks gave each other about $ 2.5 Trillion dollars each to keep the default at bay for now. They'll kick out Greece from the Euro, and that will pit the burner on the rest of the PIIGS, to clean their sties, the banks get compensated for the greek bonds, the rest of the PIIGS get enough to stay afloat for a while. Business back to usual for 6-9 months with rising industrial demand, due to money trickling down from compensated banks.

Trade back to gold at 25:1 GS ratio late spring, hold during next sovereign debt crisis, followed by QE3, next summer, buy back silver at 40:1

[Joe King]

silver moves at different times relative to gold,

usually gold leads, and silver follows.

when the GSR tightens up (gets smaller) it is signalling the move is ending for both metals, also when silver starts leading gold, that is a signal that the move is ending...

r u a 3 month investor? is that your timeline?

back in 2009 you could buy silver for $9-$11 dollars

with silver over $30 today, thats 200%+ in 2.5 years

and what seems to not be widely known, is that there are 2+ ounces of gold, for every one ounce of silver available....

mr market will figure that out soon, and price it accordingly....I understand the history. The context I used was relative to what it did during the time frame you referrenced that you also said was going to be repeated. ie the period before the recent debt downgrade.
...so I asked if silver might do the same thing again as it did then. ie sit there.

[Large Sarge]

you can chart, and do all that stuff.

or u can just look at the fundamentals (supply and demand)

funadamentals say silver is going much much higher, I have no idea when.

there is not much silver left.

[Joe King]

you can chart, and do all that stuff.

or u can just look at the fundamentals (supply and demand)

funadamentals say silver is going much much higher, I have no idea when.

there is not much silver left.

Ok, Mr preach to the choir. lol
I already understand the fundamentals. Who here doesn't?
...but that's not what you were talking about when you said the Aug 2011 scenario would repeat. So I asked if silver would repeat what it did then, too. I was following the context you provided and you seemed to have taken issue with it.

[Large Sarge]

the shortages are becoming more acute, the CFTC has imposed position limits, etc

here is the main issue.

perhaps less than 5% of all americans own Gold.

now of the 5%, (1 in 20 americans), I suspect perhaps 10% of that group owns silver as well (so perhaps 1 in 200)

see my point?

the silver market price wise is 42 billion dollars for every scrap of silver

the gold market is 4.9 trillion dollars for every scrap of Gold

so if we get any kind of move into the silver market, by any real amount of people/and or money.....

then its over.

remember, there is twice as much physical gold as silver.

[Joe King]

see my point?Yes, I sure do preacher man, but we're over here tryin' to sing a song. lol

[Large Sarge]

I am happy with the annual returns on silver, so far...

when silver really starts going sky high, well, we will be likely coming to the end of the party

so enjoy the ride for now, and when we launch, start looking for an exit.

[letter_factory]

souds dollar positive.

[Serpo]

http://buysilver.devhub.com/img/upload/silver-bars.jpg

[solid]

remember, there is twice as much physical gold as silver.

Sarge, a couple of things to pick your brain. Where did you get the number about gold being twice as much as silver? I can't find the thread, but I thought the numbers of 'above ground' gold and silver available, found that there was 10x the amount of silver to gold.

Also, much of the gold is held by governments, so not available. Since silver is not held in reserves, that should mean even more is available.

To be honest, the thing that confuses me the most is in regards to how much silver and gold is actually out there. I'd love to be able to understand it, in a simple way, if it's possible.

[Large Sarge]

Sarge, a couple of things to pick your brain. Where did you get the number about gold being twice as much as silver? I can't find the thread, but I thought the numbers of 'above ground' gold and silver available, found that there was 10x the amount of silver to gold.

Also, much of the gold is held by governments, so not available. Since silver is not held in reserves, that should mean even more is available.

To be honest, the thing that confuses me the most is in regards to how much silver and gold is actually out there. I'd love to be able to understand it, in a simple way, if it's possible.

they cover the available gold to silver in this thread...

I spell out the money differences,

http://gold-silver.us/forum/showthread.php?55224-The-Five-Myths-Of-Silver-Investing-(VERY-GOOD!!)&highlight=myths

nothing in life is a "sure thing" except death and taxes, but silver as close as you can get....