Ron Paul virtually tied with Newt in new PPP poll!

[Libertytree]

Paul closes in on Gingrich

There has been some major movement in the Republican Presidential race in Iowa over the last week, with what was a 9 point lead for Newt Gingrich now all the way down to a single point. Gingrich is at 22% to 21% for Paul with Mitt Romney at 16%, Michele Bachmann at 11%, Rick Perry at 9%, Rick Santorum at 8%, Jon Huntsman at 5%, and Gary Johnson at 1%.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/.a/6a0133f2dd8001970b0154383f9b8f970c-800wi (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/.a/6a0133f2dd8001970b0154383f9b8f970c-pi)
Gingrich has dropped 5 points in the last week and he's also seen a significant decline in his favorability numbers. Last week he was at +31 (62/31) and he's now dropped 19 points to +12 (52/40). The attacks on him appear to be taking a heavy toll- his support with Tea Party voters has declined from 35% to 24%.
Paul meanwhile has seen a big increase in his popularity from +14 (52/38) to +30 (61/31). There are a lot of parallels between Paul's strength in Iowa and Barack Obama's in 2008- he's doing well with new voters, young voters, and non-Republican voters:
-59% of likely voters participated in the 2008 Republican caucus and they support Gingrich 26-18. But among the 41% of likely voters who are 'new' for 2012 Paul leads Gingrich 25-17 with Romney at 16%. Paul is doing a good job of bringing out folks who haven't done this before.
-He's also very strong with young voters. Among likely caucus goers under 45 Paul is up 30-16 on Gingrich. With those over 45, Gingrich leads him 26-15 with Romney at 17%.
-Among Republicans Gingrich leads Paul 25-17. But with voters who identify as Democrats or independents, 21% of the electorate in a year with no action on the Democratic side, Paul leads Gingrich 34-14 with Romney at 17%.
Young voters, independents, and folks who haven't voted in caucuses before is an unusual coalition for a Republican candidate...the big question is whether these folks will really come out and vote...if they do, we could be in for a big upset.
Paul's supporters are considerably more committed to him than Gingrich's are. 77% of current Paul voters say they're definitely going to vote for him, compared to only 54% for Gingrich. Romney has much more solid support than Gingrich as well, 67% of his voters saying they're with him for the long haul. Among only voters who say their mind's totally made up, 29% support Paul to 21% for Gingrich, 18% for Romney, and 11% for Bachmann.

Romney's staying right in place. He was at 16% last week and he's at 16% this week. His net favorability was a +4 spread last week and it's a +4 spread this week. Gingrich's support is declining in Iowa but Romney's not gaining, just as he failed to gain when Cain and Perry and Bachmann collapsed before. One statistic that really jumps out- only 44% of Romney's supporters from 2008 say they plan to vote for him again. If he was even just retaining all his support from last time around he'd be in the lead. Like Romney, there's been little change in Michele Bachmann's standing over the last week. Her favorability was +21 (56/35). Now it's +18 (55/37). She's gone from 13% support to 11%.
Rick Perry generated a ton of attention in the last week with his ad decrying the repeal of 'Don't Ask, Don't Tell' and the 'War on Christmas,' but it hasn't done much for his poll standing. He was at 9% and he's still at 9%. His favorability numbers are under water with 43% of likely voters viewing him favorably to 47% with a negative opinion. The only Republican who's less well regarded is Jon Huntsman. Only 41% of Iowa Republicans even oppose gays serving in the military to 28% who support it and 31% unsure...and Perry's only tied for fourth even with those who are opposed, behind Gingrich, Bachmann, and Paul.
Other Notes:
-52% of likely voters claim to have watched the debate in Des Moines on Saturday night. Although I'm skeptical that many really watched, it does speak to how influential the debates have been in this race.
-Republicans continue to think Gingrich is the most electable candidate. 30% think it's him to 21% for Romney, and 14% for Paul with no one else in double digits.
-Here's a finding that helps explain why Mitt Romney's struggling so much: 31% of voters have a favorable opinion of the Republican establishment and an equal 31% have an unfavorable one with 38% unsure. When Romney rolls out endorsement after endorsement, to a lot of voters that's actually coming across as a negative thing. With those anti-establishment voters Paul's at 34% to 18% for Gingrich, 12% for Santorum, and only 10% for Romney.
-39% of voters think that Mitt Romney has stronger values to 18% for Newt Gingrich. 43% aren't sure and that's pretty telling.
-Finally we threw in a Tim Tebow favorability question for part of the field period. He comes out at a net +35 (48/13), making him more popular than any of the actual candidates. Maybe in 2024...
Our next weekly Iowa poll with be out on Monday the 19th.


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/12/paul-closes-in-on-gingrich.html

[midnight rambler]

I submit this trend will continue, i.e. Newt consistently dropping and Dr. Paul consistently improving his poll numbers as folks take a closer look at both and learn more about both. Really, one would have to hold one's nose to vote for Newt, or else one is braindead. The timing is looking very good imo.

[Spectrism]

The thing that worries me is Iowa should be strongly in the conservative / constitutional camp. If Paul is not getting 80% here, we have a population of dumbed-down, over-flouridated zombies. In socialist moron states, is there any chance?

If Ron Paul promise to buy everyone a beer, they might vote for him.... that is, those too dumb to know that they will be buying it with their own tax payments.

[Plastic]

Paul is'nt at 80% because people are afraid he will take their "free" lunch away. Even so, hope he wins 2012.

[Cebu_4_2]

disagree, people that have already been conditioned havent even heard of ron paul, ones that did heard he cant be elected. The old folks and retired military for the most part thing he is too soft on overseas goals. (brainwashed). My grandmother of 89, sharp as a tack, after I explained who he is changed her stance and said that she dont trust any of them.

We as a group can see much more than the outside world, or should I say the closed in world? Just through facebook I have swayed 3 people so far, the ones that do not get their news from other sources are still completely clueless. One person said he wojuld like to see bachman or newt because RP is unelectable. I stated the rational objection to no avail. Those are the people that need to open their eyes the most.

[Cebu_4_2]

NBC/WSJ poll: Romney struggles with primary voters, Gingrich with general electorate

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/j/MSNBC/Components/Photo/_new/g-pol-111213-romney-gingrich-combo-1p.photoblog600.jpgJim Lo Scalzo / Jim Lo Scalzo/EPA
Why the difference between Mitt Romney, left, and Newt Gingrich, right? Look no further than the two men's favorability ratings.


By Mark Murray, Deputy Political Director, NBC News

WASHINGTON - Exactly three weeks until the first Republican presidential nominating contest in Iowa, front-runners Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney have two different challenges, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.
Romney faces a challenge with the Republican primary electorate, trailing Gingrich nationally by 17 percentage points as nearly two-thirds of Republicans view him as either liberal or moderate.
Gingrich, meanwhile, faces a challenge with the general electorate, as half of all voters say they wouldn’t vote for him in November, and as he trails President Barack Obama by more than 10 percentage points in a hypothetical contest -- compared with Romney’s two-point deficit versus the Democratic incumbent.
Read the full poll here (.pdf) (http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/111213DecNBCWSJpoll.pdf)
“Romney has not caught on [with Republican voters],” says Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. “And Gingrich is so deeply flawed.”
“I think the Republican Party for the next four months is on the razor’s edge,” Hart adds. “Here is a year where they have a superlative opportunity to capture the White House. The question is whether they will self-destruct.”
Gingrich leads the GOP pack
According to the poll, Gingrich, the former House speaker, is the first choice of 40 percent of GOP primary voters -- the highest percentage any Republican presidential candidate has received in the party horserace so far.
Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, is the first choice of 23 percent of Republicans. He’s followed by Texas Rep. Ron Paul at 9 percent, Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann at 8 percent, Texas Gov. Rick Perry at 6 percent, former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman at 5 percent, and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum at 3 percent.
NBC/WSJ poll: Majority of GOPers view presidential choices as 'average' (http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/12/13/9418806-nbcwsj-poll-majority-of-gopers-view-presidential-choices-as-average)
Reduced to a three-person GOP race, Gingrich gets 53 percent, Romney gets 31 percent and Paul gets 13 percent.
And in a two-way Republican contest, Gingrich leads Romney by 23 points, 59 percent to 36 percent.
What’s helping Gingrich and hurting Romney? Look no further than ideology.
Fifty-seven percent of Republican primary voters view Gingrich as a conservative, 28 percent see him as a moderate and 10 percent believe he’s liberal.
Read the full poll here (.pdf) (http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/111213DecNBCWSJpoll.pdf)
By comparison, 53 percent of them view Romney as a moderate, 29 percent see him as a conservative and 11 percent believe he’s a liberal.
“Romney’s problem has always been ideology,” Hart says.
Yet Romney matches up better against Obama
But while Gingrich runs ahead of the Republican pack, he doesn’t fare as well as Romney in a hypothetical general-election race.
Obama leads the former House speaker by 11 points among registered voters, 51 percent to 40 percent. But the president’s lead narrows to just two points against Romney, 47 percent to 45 percent.
Against a generic Republican, 43 percent say they will probably vote for Obama, while 45 percent say they will probably vote for the GOP candidate.
Why the difference between Gingrich and Romney? Look no further than their favorability ratings.
Gingrich enjoys strong numbers among Republicans (46 percent positive vs. 21 percent negative), conservatives (42 percent positive vs. 23 percent negative) and Tea Party supporters (54 percent positive vs. 16 percent negative). In fact, they are higher than Romney’s numbers among these same three key Republican groups.
But Gingrich struggles with other important voting blocs -- like women (20 percent positive vs. 38 percent negative), independents (16 percent positive vs. 40 percent negative) and suburban residents (25 percent positive vs. 41 percent negative).
By comparison, Romney fares better among women (22 percent positive vs. 31 percent negative), independents (21 percent positive vs. 29 percent negative) and suburban dwellers (29 percent positive vs. 30 percent negative).
What’s more, 50 percent of registered voters say they would not vote for Gingrich in a general election -- compared with 45 percent who said that about Obama and 44 percent who said that about Romney.
“Romney has work to do,” says McInturff, the GOP pollster. “But Newt starts in a difficult position” for the general.
'A year to forget'
Besides the 2012 numbers, the other headline from the new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll is the public’s continued dissatisfaction with the state of the country and the state of American politics.
Just 22 percent believe the nation is headed in the right direction, though that’s a three-point rise since November.
Read the full poll here (.pdf) (http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/111213DecNBCWSJpoll.pdf)
Also, 42 percent label the current Congress’ performance “as one of the worst” ever -- the highest number on this question dating back to 1990. An additional 33 percent view it below average and 21 percent call it average.
Only 2 percent label it above average, and 1 percent calls it “one of the best” ever.
And nearly half of respondents -- 49 percent -- say that 2011 has been a below-average year, while an additional 27 percent see it as one of the worst years.
When asked what was the most disappointing event of the past year, 31 percent cite the wealthiest 1 percent getting richer and the middle class declining; 29 percent say the lack of an economic recovery; and 27 percent say it was Congress’ failure to reach a long-term agreement to reduce the deficit.
42 percent say current Congress has been one of the worst (http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/12/13/9423193-42-say-current-congress-has-been-one-of-the-worst)
“2011 was a year to forget,” Hart, the Democratic pollster, observes. “There are no smiles, there is no sense that the world is coming together.”
He adds, “It’s a year that we just can’t wait to let go.”
But there are some tiny rays of optimism in the poll. For instance, 30 percent believe the economy will get better in the next year, a five-point increase from last month and the highest percentage on this question since April.
Obama’s up-and-down year
As for Obama -- who faces a re-election contest in November -- 2011 was an up and down year.
In January, his job-approval rating shot up to 53 percent in January after his well-received speech on the tragic Tucson shootings. It also surpassed 50 percent after Osama bin Laden was killed in May.
But it sunk to 44 percent -- for three-straight NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls -- after the debt-ceiling debate over the summer.
Read the full poll here (.pdf) (http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/111213DecNBCWSJpoll.pdf)
In the current poll, Obama’s approval stands at 46 percent, a two-point increase since last month.
“For President Obama, 2011 was a year that started out with a lot of promise,” Hart says. “But at the end of the year, it has all melted away.”
The poll was conducted Dec. 7-11 of 1,000 adults (including 200 reached by cell phone), and it has an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points.
Mark Murray covers politics for NBC News.

[Cebu_4_2]

Both look like satin has kissed them death, RP just looks like he has more character not having to BS between the lies....

[EE_]

I watched a liberal news station tonight for a few minutes and the people were laughing at the prospect of Newt or Romney going against Obama...however, they seemed quite serious when they mentioned Ron Paul might win the nomination.
I think RP could make short work of Obama, more so then people give him credit for.
Ron would rip Obama apart on his total lack of respect for the constitution in all he has done.
Newt or Romney wouldn't know where to begin.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Orh7ssLVmwM

[BrewTech]

I love it when I hear people say that they won't vote for someone because "he can't win" (unelectable).

So I guess the object is to vote for the winner??

This may be why people wait until the last minute to decide who they are going to "vote" for... they wait to hear the media tell them who is going to "win" and then vote accordingly.

?

[EE_]

I love it when I hear people say that they won't vote for someone because "he can't win" (unelectable).

So I guess the object is to vote for the winner??

This may be why people wait until the last minute to decide who they are going to "vote" for... they wait to hear the media tell them who is going to "win" and then vote accordingly.

?

Maybe I sould post this reply in the "answer with a question" thread?...Are people really that dumb?

[chad]

can you even imagine a ron paul versus obama debate? think of what it would be like.

[Libertytree]

I love it when I hear people say that they won't vote for someone because "he can't win" (unelectable).

So I guess the object is to vote for the winner??

This may be why people wait until the last minute to decide who they are going to "vote" for... they wait to hear the media tell them who is going to "win" and then vote accordingly.

?

That's exactly what it is BT.

[midnight rambler]

I love it when I hear people say that they won't vote for someone because "he can't win" (unelectable).

So I guess the object is to vote for the winner??

This may be why people wait until the last minute to decide who they are going to "vote" for... they wait to hear the media tell them who is going to "win" and then vote accordingly.

?

So what you're saying here it's not a good idea to bet on the winning horse?? ???

[AndreaGail]

I love it when I hear people say that they won't vote for someone because "he can't win" (unelectable).

So I guess the object is to vote for the winner??

This may be why people wait until the last minute to decide who they are going to "vote" for... they wait to hear the media tell them who is going to "win" and then vote accordingly.

?

and they always justify this delayed judgment based on some asenine remark like, " well I deciced on him after carefully digesting the issues and seeing how each issue would affect me...I just think he is the best candidate for our great nation at this time"

[mightymanx]

In Politico-babble it is called momentum.

[jimswift]

can you even imagine a ron paul versus obama debate? think of what it would be like.


This is what I try to tell some fence sitters, a Paul vs. Obama debate would have all the hype of a Pacquiao vs. Mayweather fight.

Romney and Gingrich don't have a leg to stand on versus Obama, they are all in favor of the same policies. Two narcissistic doublespeaking professional liars doesn't make for much of a debate.

The "Champion of the Constitution" vs. the supposed "constitutional professor"

[mick silver]

there only one true leader and that would be mr ron paul and people will start to see this more an more because if they dont there will be no country left for us all

[big country]

didn't Huckabee win Iowa in the last GOP primary?
I fail to see how winning one primary will help....we know how far Huckabee made it last time...

Don't get me wrong, I want to see RP sweep the election and primaries...but I don't get all the hubub about one primary?

[EE_]

didn't Huckabee win Iowa in the last GOP primary?
I fail to see how winning one primary will help....we know how far Huckabee made it last time...

Don't get me wrong, I want to see RP sweep the election and primaries...but I don't get all the hubub about one primary?

I think you are comparing shitbags to apples.
With Huckleberry, the republicans had a same as the rest Fox news I love Israel shitbag, that they already liked somewhat...he didn't really need publicity.
If Ron moves into first place, the media will no longer be able to surpress/ignore him and this could possibly get a lot more people to rethink his message and positions.
That's what I think

[Libertytree]

Winning Iowa isn't an automatic ticket to the nomination,as BC noted with Huckabee but in Ron Pauls case while he doesn't absolutely need to win it outright a 1st or a second place finish will solidify his position as a front runner and very a viable candidate. A 4th or 5th place finish would likewise destroy the campaign, especially given all the time and money spent there. Here's an interview from yesterday where RP addresses this issue himself.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bL--A4bDLu8&feature=youtube_gdata

[Libertytree]

Well I damn near fell out of my chair...Frank Lutz actually mentions Ron Paul in something other than a totally negative light. I never thought I'd see the day!


http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=x2fvv646laY

[Neuro]

can you even imagine a ron paul versus obama debate? think of what it would be like.

Yeah! Truly I think that Ron Paul is the only one who can give the narcisist a fight!