WTF is up with the beat-down in POS and POG???

[midnight rambler]

holy cow!

[mamboni]

Central banks selling gold. Rumor that Italian central bank has been raided and it's gold bullion getting dumped onot market. Usual paper shorting coordinated with this no doubt. Bankers are desperate to break the gold and silver bulls - they will fail.

Gold and silver on sale!! Ignore the dollar price - it is a total manipulation. Never lose sight of the long term goal - to accumulate real wealth, ounces of gold and pounds of silver.

MF Global was a sentinel event and a warning: before this paper game is over the bankers will destroy the temple and take it all. MF Global was a trial balloon and a test of the reaction of the markets and the public. Depending on the latter, the next heist will be much much bigger. Any assets you have in paper consider hypothecated and ephemeral - play with them, move them around - but do not take them seriously and consider that they can disappear in a nanosecond.

The only wealth you have is that in your physical possession. All else is a gamble and a hedge.

Gold is patient. Are you?

[undgrd]

Physiological barrier broken

USD over 80

[osoab]

Article from Turd Fergusson on Monday.

Stand Back (http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3122/stand-back)



I trust that today's action doesn't come as a surprise to anyone. If you are still trying to trade this "market", I hope you are short.

Rather than regurgitate all that we've discussed since last Wednesday, let's just sum up:

1) Central banks are lending gold to the bullion banks at a negative rate of over -0.5%. This means that the EE can borrow gold and sell it on the Comex or LBMA and actually get paid interest to do it! The last time we saw lease rates this low was back in September and we all remember what happened then.

2) EE selling has now turned the charts decidedly negative. WOPR is using this information to accelerate that downward pressure by mindlessly spitting out sell orders.

3) Actual human beings are selling Comex paper because they are finally learning via the MFG-HSBC lawsuit mess that trusting your broker to hold and/or deliver your precious metal is a fool's errand.

That's a lot of combined selling pressure. Regardless of the fundamentals, paper metal is going down. How far? Well that's the question, now isn't it?

It may be foolish to try to find support and a bottom by looking at the charts.

What do I know? I'm just a Turd. However, there will be a point where investors and traders will halt the paper carnage, if anything because the paper system still exists and there will be an arbitrage opportunity with physical. So, what do the charts show? I'll let you draw your own conclusions but I think you can plainly see where ultimate support will lie. I wouldn't buy any futures, options, etfs or miners until we get close to these levels.


Lastly, just another word about the discussion I had over the weekend where "bulk" metal prices were mentioned. Please use your brains on this. Of course anyone can log onto Apmex and buy a couple of AGEs for 5% over spot. That's not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about big money. Big money. If you've got 20, 30 or 50 million dollars you're looking to move into gold and/or silver....and you want it in your hands and out of JPM or HSBC or Scotia...you are going to pay a very hefty premium. It appears to be something like $200 over spot in gold and $7-8 over spot in silver. Non-cartel metal in bulk size is very hard to come by. One only needs to review the MFG-HSBC lawsuit documents to get a feel for why.

I've got a last of 1666 in gold and 31.07 in silver. If you're trading, I sincerely hope that you heeded my advice back on Wednesday and Thursday and used the strength of Friday to liquidate some longs. If not, be prepared for at least another $100 on the downside. Paper is de-coupling from physical and the process is going to be ugly and bizarre. We are sailing into uncharted waters where anything is possible.

Be cautious. Do not use margin or leverage. Buy physical only. Prepare accordingly. TF


We hit the 100 FRN downside since Monday as of today.

[osoab]

From Turd today.

The Only Charts That Matter (http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3147/only-charts-matter)



Gold and silver are simply oscillating down toward the lower end of the channel in which they've traded since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. For those looking to capture some bargains and perhaps "catch the falling knife", your opportunity to buy is not very far away. Gold has momentarily caught a bid in the area of its 200-day moving average, near 1610. As I mentioned yesterday, I do not expect the decline to end there. I have high confidence that gold will soon trade down toward 1550. That will be your opportunity. Silver is similar but different. It might bottom near 28. It could stop at 26. However, I think that, in the end, it won't bottom until it reaches its long-term channel boundary, near 25.

[vacuum]

Wish I knew what was going on.

[mamboni]

From Turd today.

The Only Charts That Matter (http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3147/only-charts-matter)

Turd's advice is to the trader. Wait too long for the "bottom" and you often miss the move entirely. I moved 2/3 of my cash into gold and silver bullion [paper] this AM. Frankly, watching these markets is a waste of time, as is technical analysis. The markets are totally manipulated and prone to corruption by central banks and governments. If gold and silver move much lower I will move the rest of my cash into metal shares and be done with it. Long term is all that matters for me personally.

[Ponce]

You are only worried if you paid more than the day's price........me? I'll worry when it gets down to $6.64 LOLLLLLLLLL

First post of the day..............good morning to one and all.

[chad]

for once, i'm actually excited about it. friday is get some more physical day. hopefully it stays down until then.

[Book]

http://cache.thephoenix.com/secure/uploadedImages/The_Phoenix/News/This_Just_In/TJI_MoneyForklift.jpg

::)

[osoab]

Turd's advice is to the trader. Wait too long for the "bottom" and you often miss the move entirely. I moved 2/3 of my cash into gold and silver bullion [paper] this AM. Frankly, watching these markets is a waste of time, as is technical analysis. The markets are totally manipulated and prone to corruption by central banks and governments. If gold and silver move much lower I will move the rest of my cash into metal shares and be done with it. Long term is all that matters for me personally.

I think looking at his numbers would help even the little guy with the direction of the market.

When he is calling out lows, you can still look for those areas to BTFD with either bullion, equities, or paper bullion.

[SWRichmond]

dollar strength caused by EU sovereign and bank weakness.

I fully expected this to happen at least one more time. Everyone is running home to momma. Once the "everyones" realize that, in a sustained deflation, the U.S. can't pay its debts, either, the USD has its turn.

I am not alarmed at all. Treating this as a buying op, but not buying yet as I expect this to continue.

Kyle Bass has it right: they print post-default.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/kyle-bass-rehypothecation-and-other-keynesian-endgame-scenarios

[Shami-Amourae]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6H0-VPdcr7M

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=43vq9K5NfaI

[Silver Rocket Bitches!]

Total buying opportunity. Thank the euro.

[DMac]

dollar strength caused by EU sovereign and bank weakness.

I fully expected this to happen at least one more time. Everyone is running home to momma. Once the "everyones" realize that, in a sustained deflation, the U.S. can't pay its debts, either, the USD has its turn.

I am not alarmed at all. Treating this as a buying op, but not buying yet as I expect this to continue.

Kyle Bass has it right: they print post-default.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/kyle-bass-rehypothecation-and-other-keynesian-endgame-scenarios

Another spot on Kyle Bass interview. He is worth the listen every time. Smart guy.

[Silver Rocket Bitches!]

Fox business is on the case:


The metal's safe-haven status has been called into question given its inability to profit from the high degree of risk aversion and uncertainty current among investors.
Banks' dollar borrowing from the European Central bank tripled on Wednesday compared to the prior week as the euro zone debt crisis has caused money markets to seize up, aggravating any sell-offs in gold, as investors scramble for dollars ahead of the year end.
Spot gold was down nearly 3 percent on the day at $1,585.49 an ounce by 1610 GMT, its lowest since late September.
The price is set for a 7.3 percent fall this week, its largest weekly slide in nearly three months.
The lure of the dollar as a comparatively secure alternative to the euro, which has pushed local prices for key gold consumers such as India to record highs and deterred buying, together with an investor dash for cash have overwhelmed gold's safe-haven qualities.


Read more: http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2011/12/14/heavy-selling-gold-slides-below-1600-ounce/#ixzz1gX700UYx

Gimme a break.

[mamboni]

Hark! Hark!

Remember that the FED is providing unlimited liquidity to European banks vis dollar swaps. This is QE to infinity folks. Don't be fooled by this knee jerk dollar strength. After the EURO and the dollar are destroyed by overissuance there will be only gold left standing. Don't forget that.

[Ponce]

OK guys, time to sell your PM and buy dollars.......after all, is now up up UP.

[Ponce]

Wowwwwwwwwww silver down $1.70.................

[Shami-Amourae]

Found this interesting too:
http://creditmatters.podbean.com/2011/12/13/interview-with-ranting-andy-hoffman-the-latest-gold-takedown/

[ximmy]

I'm buying... :p

[ximmy]

I'm buying... :p

Checking around... nobody's lowering prices... :(

[Shami-Amourae]

Junk Silver @ Provident is $0.59 over spot now. I bought a few weeks ago at $0.09 UNDER spot.
http://www.providentmetals.com/1-face-value-90-silver-us-coins.html

Eagles seem like the best deal now @ $2.79 over spot for maximum quanitities:
http://www.providentmetals.com/2011-american-silver-eagle-brilliant-uncirculated.html

[gunDriller]

Physiological barrier broken

USD over 80

yeah, i think that's part of it.

i was listening to a Financial Sense webcast with Jeff "the markets aren't manipulated" Christian.

all the reasons he cites for gold going up to $1900 this year are "even more so" now - e.g. the debt ceiling BS in the US, Europe's slow-motion bankruptcy.

but, those same forces result in forced liquidations - people sell what they have to sell to raise cash.

ALSO, market manipulators are playing the currency markets to prop up the $ - that's where Blythe Masters comes in.


of course, my guess is that many banksters are taking the opposite side of the trade, and buying as much as they can with their $billions.

just cause banksters are immoral and think they're "chosen" doesn't mean they're stupid.

[Hermie]

Checking around... nobody's lowering prices... :(


Gainesville Coins http://www.gainesvillecoins.com/

[big country]

I wont be able to buy until friday, I'm fully planning on moving some of my cash savings back into gold/silver at these prices....This is what I SOLD it at in june to buy my house. I figure if I can get back in for what I sold at then all is gravy!!

[ximmy]

Gainesville Coins http://www.gainesvillecoins.com/

Thanks Hermie... but buying NTR bars is like buying cheap flavored vodka... You just don't do it! ;D

Provident has a decent price on gold canadian maples, or perth mint 1 oz bars
(I'm watching these)

[madfranks]

Christmas bonus is going into silver this year, and a sub $30 price is a great sale!

[chad]

i have a bunch of ntr bars. what don't you like about them?

[ximmy]

i have a bunch of ntr bars. What don't you like about them?

lol..

[mightymanx]

lol..


No really what is to dislike.

Are you a government minted only type?

[ximmy]

No really what is to dislike.

Are you a government minted only type?

No, it's fine ::) keep staking away... ;D

YOU
http://www.boxwines.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/lost-box-1.jpg

ME
http://cathedralridgewinery.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/wine-storage-cellars-05.jpg

[undgrd]

^^^

That made me laugh

[Twisted Titan]

All of us got a wonderful Christmas gift............

being able to buy your favorite hard currency at a steepest discount yet.

[Gaillo]

...being able to buy your favorite hard currency at a steep discount.

Indeed! A man could go broke buying money... ;)

[Hermie]

Thanks Hermie... but buying NTR bars is like buying cheap flavored vodka... You just don't do it! ;D



Well, good luck with that then.
And be sure to have someone check to make sure there is not a pea under your mattress.

....

[Sparky]

Turd's advice is to the trader. Wait too long for the "bottom" and you often miss the move entirely. I moved 2/3 of my cash into gold and silver bullion [paper] this AM. Frankly, watching these markets is a waste of time, as is technical analysis. The markets are totally manipulated and prone to corruption by central banks and governments. If gold and silver move much lower I will move the rest of my cash into metal shares and be done with it. Long term is all that matters for me personally.

I moved a portion in these last couple of days as well, brother in PM. But I think we're going to need the remaining powder.

On a technical basis, now that Gold has broken it's 200 DMA, it's rock bottom floor is much, much lower, dating back to the high volume gold trading volume that went on in early February 2010. At that point, it bottomed out at [gulp] $1050. It could very conceivably get there. I don't think it will, but I want to throw that out there because it was exactly this type of move that spooked the market in the mid-1970's. Ironically, gold went through a long and painful 20-month drop from about $195 to $105, which would be almost EXACTLY a one-tenth fractal of a move from $1922 to $1050. The good news is that subsequently, gold ultimately spiked to 8x the $105 bottom, which would correspond to $8400 during this bull run.

I'm not predicting this, but just pointing it out as a completely plausible scenario in this ongoing bull market. I need to go look at a few more numbers before making a prediction. Will report back later...

[Serpo]

December 14, 2011



http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/12/14_Von_Greyerz_-_Currency_Collapse,_Hyperinflation_%26_Social_Unre st_files/shapeimage_27.pnghttp://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/12/14_Von_Greyerz_-_Currency_Collapse,_Hyperinflation_&_Social_Unrest_files/shapeimage_27_link_0.pnghttp://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/12/14_Von_Greyerz_-_Currency_Collapse,_Hyperinflation_&_Social_Unrest_files/shapeimage_27_link_1.png


http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/12/14_Von_Greyerz_-_Currency_Collapse,_Hyperinflation_%26_Social_Unre st_files/shapeimage_28.pnghttp://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/12/14_Von_Greyerz_-_Currency_Collapse,_Hyperinflation_&_Social_Unrest_files/shapeimage_28_link_0.pnghttp://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/12/14_Von_Greyerz_-_Currency_Collapse,_Hyperinflation_&_Social_Unrest_files/shapeimage_28_link_1.png
With the gold price tumbling, along with silver, today King World News interviewed the man who told clients in 2002, when gold was $300, to put up to 50% of their assets into physical gold held outside of the banking system. Egon von Greyerz is founder and managing partner at Matterhorn Asset Management out of Switzerland. When asked about the 2002 call, Greyerz responded, “It was very clear to me, Eric, for quite a long time, well before 2002, that this was going to end badly. There was no chance the world would survive with the banking system intact or even the financial system intact.”




Egon von Greyerz continues:



“There were two alternatives, a deflationary collapse, which would mean that no bank would survive and that would be very good for gold. The more likely scenario, which I’ve been predicting for probably ten years, is we would have hyperinflation because governments need to print unlimited amounts of money.



That was clear in 2002 and that’s why we told clients this is the only way to protect your assets, by putting up to 50% of your assets into gold and to store it outside the banking system because we don’t know if the banking system will survive...There is no alternative in my book, everything else is paper which will decline dramatically against gold.



We have an unprecedented situation in the world. There has never been, in world history, a situation where all major sovereign countries are bankrupt. And, in addition, the whole financial system is bankrupt. As we know some countries can print money, like the US and the UK, so therefore their currencies are relatively stable now. It’s not going to last (their currency stability)....




http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/12/14_Von_Greyerz_-_Currency_Collapse,_Hyperinflation_%26_Social_Unre st_files/shapeimage_29.jpg













http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/12/14_Von_Greyerz_-_Currency_Collapse,_Hyperinflation_%26_Social_Unre st_files/shapeimage_30.jpg






“The EU is under pressure only because there is only one bank, the ECB, that can print money and all of the individual countries can’t. Therefore the US, of course, loves the fact that Europe is under pressure and especially the eurozone because the problems in the US are just the same. The focus will soon shift to the US. The only way they can solve their problem is by printing unlimited amounts of money.



Then you go to the banking system, as we both know, the banking system is bankrupt and is only surviving because banks are allowed, since 2008, the banks are allowed to state all of their toxic assets at full value. If they had stated them at market value no banks would be standing today, no major bank.



So you have both sovereign states and the banking system which is bankrupt and it is only a matter of time before we have a resolution. The resolution is just a resolution and that will be money printing in my view. That will kick the can down the road a little further, but will not solve any problem whatsoever. This problem, sadly, is too big to be solved.



This is the frightening side of what’s happening now. It’s one thing to have a financial system that’s under pressure, and the consequence that will have is all currencies will continue to collapse. For the last 100 years currencies are down between 97% and 99% against gold. So they haven’t got far to go to zero and they will go to zero.



What will happen is speculators will go after one currency at a time. So currencies will become worthless and this is what will create hyperinflation. Sadly, it will be a hyperinflationary depression, which means there will be a lot of hungry people....because of the poverty this will involve and the hunger, this will involve social unrest...It will get a lot worse.”


http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/12/14_Von_Greyerz_-_Currency_Collapse%2C_Hyperinflation_%26_Social_Un rest.html

[Horn]

Wish I knew what was going on.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BX3ll_cCkqg

[hoarder]

Central banks selling PAPER gold. Fixed it for ya!

[Serpo]

Gold could fall to $1,600 - or even lower! Technical analysis

Gold and silver prices could fall even further in the current environment. Technical analyst Dr. Nu Yu interprets the charts for us.
Author: Nu Yu, Ph.D. with Lorimer Wilson
Posted: Wednesday , 14 Dec 2011

TORONTO -
Gold is in the bump phase of a seven-year Bump-and-Run Reversal Top pattern which typically occurs when excessive speculation drives prices up steeply, and is now at a critical juncture which could change the long-term trend of gold. Silver is already in the run phase which does not bode well for its future price. Let me explain.
According to Thomas Bulkowski, the Bump-and-Run Reversal Top pattern consists of three main phases:


A lead-in phase in which a lead-in trend line connecting the lows has a slope angle of about 30 degrees. Prices move in an orderly manner and the range of price oscillation defines the lead-in height between the lead-in trend line and the warning line which is parallel to the lead-in trend line.
A bump phase where, after prices cross above the warning line, excessive speculation kicks in and the bump phase starts with fast rising prices following a sharp trend line slope with 45 degrees or more until prices reach a bump height with at least twice the lead-in height. Once the second parallel line gets crossed over, it serves as a sell line.
A run phase in which prices break support from the lead-in trend line in a downhill run.

A LOOK AT THE FUTURE FOR GOLD
The seven year weekly chart below for gold offers a cautious early view regarding the long term trend of gold and is an updated version of a previous article entitled How Low Will Gold Go in This Correction? (http://www.munknee.com/2011/08/how-low-will-gold-go-in-this-correction/) Gold has been in the bump phase of the Bump-and-Run Reversal Toppattern since late 2009 after almost three years in the lead-in phase.
As can be seen in the chart below the major decline over the past few days has dragged the price of gold sharply below the sell line which suggests the formation of a long-term Bump-and-Run Reversal Top for gold.
If prices keep staying in the territory under the sell line, gold could get into a bear market going forward into 2012 with downside price targets as follows:


$1,600 for support from the trend line of last three years.
$1,400 for support from the warning line.
$1,000 for support from the lead-in trend line.

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/media_stream/mineweb/1/141645/images/111214%20gold%20tech%20analysis.jpg
A LOOK AT THE FUTURE FOR SILVER
Silver also has a bearish picture with a bump-and-run reversal top pattern in its intermediate-term timeframe. Silver has been in this run phase for some time as I pointed out in my earlier article entitled
Will Silver "Bump-and-Run" Down to $22/ozt? Time Will Tell But it Doesn't Look Good (http://www.munknee.com/2011/11/silver-is-still-in-the-%e2%80%9crun%e2%80%9d-phase-with-a-%e2%80%9cdead-cat-bounce%e2%80%9d-to-follow/).
As can be seen in the chart below, silver has been oscillating between the first and second target lines for almost three months and appears to be on the verge of breaching the second target line.
Silver could get well into a bear market going forward into 2012 with downside price targets as follows:
1. $31 for support at the 2nd target line.
2. $24 for support at the 3rd target line.
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/media_stream/mineweb/1/141645/images/111214%20gold%20tech%20analysis%202.jpg
CONCLUSION
There you have it. As I have been saying for months now in my previous articles, as supported by my technical analyses as evidenced by the charts above, the outlook for gold (as low as $1600 and conceivably as low as $1000) and silver (as low as $31 and conceivably as low as $24) look rather bleak in the short term at least. It should prove to be a very interesting 2012.
The time has come to re-check the fundamentals, reality, and risks for gold and silver especially in light of the current bearish performances of all BRIC emerging markets, and the U.S. Fed's Operation Twist.
Dr. Nu Yu is managing partner andco-founder of Numarkan Investments and an affiliate of the Market Technicians Association. He publishes a Market Weekly Update on gold, silver, the U.S. dollar, the U.S. Treasury bond, and the S&P 500 which can be accessed here (http://fx5186.wordpress.com/). A version of the above article has been posted on Dr. Yu's site (http://fx5186.wordpress.com%29/)and that of his editor, Lorimer Wilson (www.munKNEE.com (http://www.munknee.com/) and www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (http://www.financialarticlesummariestoday.com/)). Dr. Yu can be contacted at editor@munknee.com (editor@munknee.com).
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=141645&sn=Detail&pid=102055

[Andy9999]

let them sell it I WUILL BUY AT 600 $

[MAGNES]

This SI drop is not unusual, it ain't that big, $2, where gold is sitting is a
bigger deal, we usually get drops in DEC, and usually
there have been setups for short plays, the Gold chart doesn't
look good, bottoms basing sideways, one upside down cup after
another and breakdowns and it formed a pennant, that broke to the
downside at 1700, sitting on roughly 1600, looks bad. Second week of
DEC is good point for a setup to go short, the peak was first week and that
opportunity was not great, to go short on SI. I expect some sort of short during
expirey. It would be blatant for them to do a full correction now but that never
stopped them before. Silver is going to follow gold. The serious breakdown actually
occurred a few days ago when gold broke down on the pennant formed.
Go look at a chart. People are trading these points, the pennant breakdown,
today is more significant than Sept too. It's not a blow off bottom.




Checking around... nobody's lowering prices... :(


Kitco is a whole dollar less for Maples and SAE, like last time.
Nothing out of stock yet, in Sept they did have some out of stock.
USD $ 31.76 ea. Vs 33.04 or 32.54 for 25+.
https://online.kitco.com/bullion/completelist_USD.html#silver
Put it in your bookmarks.

Watch gold people, not silver, this is basic.
I spoke to basic technical analysis, gave you a good chart.
Even gold is tough to pick a bottom, everything going down is resistance.
There really is a concrete floor in the 1500's, where's the hat eater, LOL .
Just sticking to basic technical analysis is all you need, no voodoo tech.

This is a good chart I have linked to many times.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p42106480801&r=3990
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p42106480801&r=3990

[ximmy]

Well, good luck with that then.
And be sure to have someone check to make sure there is not a pea under your mattress.

....

even if I could not feel it, I'd know it's there...
http://newsroom.icpl.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/the_princess_and_the_pea1.jpg

[Sparky]

OK, time to talk about a specific bottom...

I have a spreadsheet that looks at the previous years highs/lows, and typical advances of the highs and lows year-to-year to get an idea of "expected" ranges during this continuing bull market. It turns out the annual "bottoms" (with the year beginning on July 1 to better capture the seasonal cycle) have been much more predictable. Consistent with changes during the previous decade, the full range of possibilities for a low price last year (2010-11) was $888-$1218, with an expected value of $1081. The actual lowest close on the London Fix was $1157. As for highs, the range of possibilities was $1202 to $2014, with an expected high of $1485. The actual high close on the London fix was $1558.

As for this year (July 2011 to July 2012) the range of possible lows is $1097 to $1552. We actually established a low of $1483 on the first day of the cyclical year (July 1), and we got down near the $1552 intra-day today. The $1097 lines up with the $1050 I mentioned earlier as a "rock bottom" low associated with the high volume low in February 2010. The average or "expected" low is $1367. So I'm going to go with that as the predicted low during this current correction.

As for the highs, the range is $1485-$2488. The expected value is $1873. That's damn close to the $1895 high close on Sept 5-6, so that could actually be the high for the year.

[MAGNES]

OK, time to talk about a specific bottom...

I have a spreadsheet that looks at the previous years highs/lows, and typical advances of the highs and lows year-to-year to get an idea of "expected" ranges during this continuing bull market. It turns out the annual "bottoms" (with the year beginning on July 1 to better capture the seasonal cycle) have been much more predictable. Consistent with changes during the previous decade, the full range of possibilities for a low price last year (2010-11) was $888-$1218, with an expected value of $1081. The actual lowest close on the London Fix was $1157. As for highs, the range of possibilities was $1202 to $2014, with an expected high of $1485. The actual high close on the London fix was $1558.

As for this year (July 2011 to July 2012) the range of possible lows is $1097 to $1552. We actually established a low of $1483 on the first day of the cyclical year (July 1), and we got down near the $1552 intra-day today. The $1097 lines up with the $1050 I mentioned earlier as a "rock bottom" low associated with the high volume low in February 2010. The average or "expected" low is $1367. So I'm going to go with that as the predicted low during this current correction.

As for the highs, the range is $1485-$2488. The expected value is $1873. That's damn close to the $1895 high close on Sept 5-6, so that could actually be the high for the year.

Nobody can pick bottom here, a full gold correction is 35 % from the top.
Maybe some sort of blow off bottom interday. Sparky, you are one of the
best posters here on tech, reminding people of past, possibilities, etc,
entries, but you go voodoo tech some times, this is where you lose me,
how many numbers do you got up there dude ? Absolute bottoms and
triggers to go long SI with confidence, are in the 1200 range
and we won't be there very long, it will be an interday bottom.
We don't have to be perfect on this and can be off quite a bit,
pull the trigger on SI calls going far out, and always close to the
money. I am just looking for another good run, lost a lot of good
short term entries including this one.

Right now Sparky we watch gold next couple of days.
If it looks weaker and weaker and if there is some sort
of short term setup for a drop. If GC doesn't do a V
here short term, bad news for it, lower red candles, etc,
1500 range is huge resistance, don't know how we can
predict anything in this range. Looking at GC cot chart,
OI is lows, positions are not. SI cot is moot. They could
take it down and close out. 4 th week of DEC. ;D
A inter seasonal and expirey play, 1/2 cot chart, stars are not
going to be totally lined up but ...

I want to see some sort of pennant form in the 1500 range.
That would be good and powerful.
Where are the stops, the whole range down is stops.
1300 would be easy target at that point.

Sparky, comment on what I am saying dude, take me apart.

[Sparky]

OK, Mag, I think we have similar scenarios from different approaches. First, I don't pretend to know the bottom, so I agree with you there. I'm just looking to see what are reasonable expectations, based on the ups and downs over the last 10 years. Some people freak at a $100 drop, when there's nothing to freak about if you understand expectations. There's media talk that the bubble may be bursting. I'm saying it could go all the way to $1050, and still remain intact. It's all about building a stable floor for the next rise up.

We topped at $1925 so far. I'm saying anything $1050-$1550 is reasonable, and if I had to make my best guess, I'd say $1350. As we both agree, nobody knows. If we form a pennant at $1500 and then bust up, then $1500 is probably it. If not, I think we could go to $1350. The rock bottom is $1050. I don't think we'll get there, but I'd like to be buying all the way down if we do. If we go below that, then this entire bull market is in trouble. I don't think that's the case.

One last thought: Since 2000, seasonal cycle highs have come December through May. Our high so far in 2011-12 occurred in September, which would be unusual. One scenario is that we bottom out near $1500 soon, then move up toward the highs again over the next few months, and then make the trip to $1350 next summer.

[Sparky]

Annual highs and lows so far since 2001, using a July-to-July calendar year, and London fix daily close prices:


....................Low Date ..... Low..... High Date..... High
2001-02 .......7/6/2001..... $265.... 5/29/2001... $327
2002-03 .......8/1/2002 .... $302.... 2/5/2003 ....$382
2003-04....... 7/17/2003 ...$343..... 4/1/2004... $427
2004-05....... 7/29/2004 .. $387... 12/2/2004 ... $454
2005-06 .......7/15/2005... $418 ....5/12/2006... $725
2006-07 .... 10/6/2006..... $561.... 4/20/2007... $691
2007-08 .......7/6/2007 .... $649 ... 3/18/2008... $1,011
2008-09 .... 10/24/2008.... $712... 2/20/2009... $989
2009-10 ..... 7/13/2009.... $908 ... 6/28/2010... $1,261
2010-2011.. 7/28/2010.. $1,157..... 5/2/2011... $1,558
2011-2012.. 7/1/2011.... $1,483..... 9/6/2011... $1,895

[EE_]

I like gold at the 2010-2011 low...$1483

I'm willing to place bet on gold at that price
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/abc_gopdebate_bet_111210a-615x345.jpg

[Ponce]

I don't hear the fat lady singing.......nothing happens till it happens.

[osoab]

Annual highs and lows so far since 2001, using a July-to-July calendar year, and London fix daily close prices:


....................Low Date ..... Low..... High Date..... High
2001-02 .......7/6/2001..... $265.... 5/29/2001... $327
2002-03 .......8/1/2002 .... $302.... 2/5/2003 ....$382
2003-04....... 7/17/2003 ...$343..... 4/1/2004... $427
2004-05....... 7/29/2004 .. $387... 12/2/2004 ... $454
2005-06 .......7/15/2005... $418 ....5/12/2006... $725
2006-07 .... 10/6/2006..... $561.... 4/20/2007... $691
2007-08 .......7/6/2007 .... $649 ... 3/18/2008... $1,011
2008-09 .... 10/24/2008.... $712... 2/20/2009... $989
2009-10 ..... 7/13/2009.... $908 ... 6/28/2010... $1,261
2010-2011.. 7/28/2010.. $1,157..... 5/2/2011... $1,558
2011-2012.. 7/1/2010.... $1,483..... 9/6/2011... $1,895

Sparky, you have a 2010 date as a low for 2011/2012.

Otherwise, thanks for the numbers.

[Sparky]

Sparky, you have a 2010 date as a low for 2011/2012.

Otherwise, thanks for the numbers.

Good catch, thanks. I fixed it.

[Sparky]

I like gold at the 2011-2012 low...$1483

I'm willing to place bet on gold at that price

Yep, that would definitely be a reasonable place for a reversal. I'd probably lay out some more FRNs at that price.

[LuckyStrike]

Turd's advice is to the trader. Wait too long for the "bottom" and you often miss the move entirely. I moved 2/3 of my cash into gold and silver bullion [paper] this AM. Frankly, watching these markets is a waste of time, as is technical analysis. The markets are totally manipulated and prone to corruption by central banks and governments. If gold and silver move much lower I will move the rest of my cash into metal shares and be done with it. Long term is all that matters for me personally.

I also moved in with free cash this AM.

The psychology in investing is something which I think most people underestimate, but you have to remain resolute.

Personally I look at it like this, I have been accumulating silver bullion since it was in the low teens, when silver hit 50 a few months ago I was kinda bummed since it was getting to a point where my money just wouldn't buy much. Had silver continued to 75+ I would hardly be able to put money there since I couldn't justify spending that when prep prices where still roughly the same.

But when silver has down days you MUST look at it like it's on sale, the ship has yet to sail, at this point you can get nearly twice the bang for your buck as compared to earlier in the year.

My opinion as to the short (months) to intermediate term (2-3 years) I think it's possible that silver and gold stay range bound near these levels, for one thing Europe has major problems and Euro problems mean people flock to Treasuries a perceived safe haven, if the Euro completely implodes it may send gold and silver down significantly in the very near term, but I don't care what the price is in the near term.

I buy PM's to have a hard asset, things which have been money for thousands of years, I wouldn't sell physical silver if it hit 100 an ounce, I plan on passing it to my kids, so price to me in physical is largely irrelevant, paper is a different story, I'd probably sell AGQ if silver hits 75 and it sucks when price goes down because the miners get hit but again those present good buying opportunities on the dips.

All in all I don't stress about it, the worst part is people think you don't know what you are doing holding an asset thats down 50% in a few months, but it's their loss. Ultimately I look at it like this, worst case scenario I am dead wrong, know nothing about economics nor investing CNBC has been right all along and PM's are in a bubble and silver goes to a dollar and gold to 200, I will lose a good amount of money, but I still get paid in paper money every week so big deal. It's just money and I will make more.

[Ponce]

To me even the "dips" are to high sinse my average is of $6.15........I almost did it today but after looking at how much I have I decided that I really didn't need more.......there is need and then there is greed.

[ximmy]

To me even the "dips" are to high sinse my average is of $6.15........I almost did it today but after looking at how much I have I decided that I really didn't need more.......there is need and then there is greed.

Right.. I needed to hear this tonight... I don't really need another monster.. but if it went sub 28 I would be sooo tempted... ;) :-\

[lapis]

It would be nice if the POS dipped to $25 so I could get more! I never feel like I have enough silver. :.(

[MAGNES]

SI just got nailed early morning, front running GC, this is confirmation.
I banged off a lots of points above, tomorrow's close will be possibly further
confirmation. Red candle, bottom not in. What we are waiting for is a setup.
If it does not come it does not come, we are not day trading. If they do a
full correction gold , SI is going to land on a ridiculously low point.
Very probable expirey period low.


Right.. I needed to hear this tonight... I don't really need another monster.. but if it went sub 28 I would be sooo tempted...

Keep some powder dry, ask me questions. See below.



It would be nice if the POS dipped to $25 so I could get more! I never feel like I have enough silver. :.(

Watch kitco and apmex for it to slowly come off the market,
I doubt you will be getting any physical at that price.

There's physical and there's a trade going long conservatively,
no reason why you can't have both if it comes.

[Neuro]

Interestingly Palladium has held up very well, above $600... Pd tends to be an early predictor on PMs, seems like this is a smackdown on primarily the monetary PM's, but on its essentially worthless paper promises...

Smackdown preparations for the war in Syria, don't want to start that off with the dollar in a weak position, and PM's looking attractive?

I think this is the right time to buy! Sure paper silver could go down to low 20's or even high teens, but premiums would be ridiculos if you could even find any physical!

Unfortunately I am not in a position to buy any right now as I have to pay for the stonemason who builds my little fortress (1/2 meter of solid stonewalls) on my BOL. Actually I have to sell some this week... Oh well, at least I payed far less for it than I am getting now...

[letter_factory]

gold and silver are down because congress and obama fixed the economy!

[undgrd]

I moved a portion in these last couple of days as well, brother in PM. But I think we're going to need the remaining powder.

On a technical basis, now that Gold has broken it's 200 DMA, it's rock bottom floor is much, much lower, dating back to the high volume gold trading volume that went on in early February 2010. At that point, it bottomed out at [gulp] $1050. It could very conceivably get there. I don't think it will, but I want to throw that out there because it was exactly this type of move that spooked the market in the mid-1970's. Ironically, gold went through a long and painful 20-month drop from about $195 to $105, which would be almost EXACTLY a one-tenth fractal of a move from $1922 to $1050. The good news is that subsequently, gold ultimately spiked to 8x the $105 bottom, which would correspond to $8400 during this bull run.

I'm not predicting this, but just pointing it out as a completely plausible scenario in this ongoing bull market. I need to go look at a few more numbers before making a prediction. Will report back later...

If Gold does drop to $1350, I will be VERY interested to see what physical sells for locally. Currently, 1oz American Gold Buffalo's and American Eagles are selling for about $85 over spot. I would bet both double if Gold drops to $1350.

[mamboni]

gold and silver are down because congress and obama fixed the economy!

Let's give credit where credit is due! Bernanke has proven that he can print trillions upon trillions of new dollars, as many as the world will ever need, and the price of gold [in dollars] will drop; it doesn't matter that gold production has peaked since 2001. It doesn't matter that gold demand is rising. Bernanke has proven the Keynesians were right: that the dollar can be managed and is as good as gold. None of us have to work, struggle, speculate, create or go hungry ever again. We can print all the dollars we'll ever need forever and live happily ever after. <sarcasm>

[undgrd]

Let's give credit where credit is due! Bernanke has proven that he can print trillions upon trillions of new dollars, as many as the world will ever need, and the price of gold [in dollars] will drop; it doesn't matter that gold production has peaked since 2001. It doesn't matter that gold demand is rising. Bernanke has proven the Keynesians were right: that the dollar can be managed and is as good as gold. None of us have to work, struggle, speculate, create or go hungry ever again. We can print all the dollars we'll ever need forever and live happily ever after. <sarcasm>


Why the sarcasm? So far, your statement is right on!
http://www.myemoticons.com/images/emotions/positive/thumbs-up-1.gif

[keehah]

Gold Lease Rate Slides to Lowest on Record as European Banks Seek Dollars (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-08/gold-lease-rate-slides-to-lowest-on-record-as-european-banks-seek-dollars.html)


Bloomberg; Dec 8, 2011

The interest rate for lending gold in exchange for dollars plunged to the lowest on record this week as European banks sought ways to secure the U.S. currency amid the region’s debt crisis.

The one-month lease rate on gold fell to minus 0.57 percent on Dec. 6, the lowest according to Bloomberg data going back to January 1998. The rate, derived by subtracting the gold forward offered rate from the London Interbank Offered Rate, was at minus 0.56 percent today and compares with minus 0.23 percent at the start of this year. A negative reading means banks have to pay to have their gold deposits lent...

Holdings in exchange-traded products backed by gold reached an all-time high of 2,358.2 metric tons on Dec. 6, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s greater than the [stated] reserves of all but four of the world’s central banks, which are expanding holdings for the first time in a generation. The World Gold Council forecast central-bank buying for the year may reach as much as 450 tons, and UBS AG estimates purchases approaching that level next year.

“The jewelry sector borrowing practically nothing, ample physical supply out there at bullion banks, plus the liquidity crunch in Europe are all playing into it for the moment,” Jon Nadler, an analyst at Kitco Inc. in Montreal, said in an e-mail yesterday. “Gold should be what is heavily in demand at times such as these.”

[Sparky]

...

I buy PM's to have a hard asset, things which have been money for thousands of years, I wouldn't sell physical silver if it hit 100 an ounce, I plan on passing it to my kids, so price to me in physical is largely irrelevant, paper is a different story, I'd probably sell AGQ if silver hits 75 and it sucks when price goes down because the miners get hit but again those present good buying opportunities on the dips.
...

I agree with most of your sentiment, Lucky. But your comment on AGQ raised a red flag. I hope you're not holding this long term.

AGQ is a 2x leveraged ETF. If you hold it until silver is $75, you might get clobbered because the leveraged ETFs erode with time due to how they work mathematically, re-setting every day. Leveraged ETFs should only be used for short-term moves, like days or weeks, and not months or years.

Right now, silver is $29 while AGQ is $46. Last time silver was $29 in November 2010, AGQ was $53.

Also, you mentioned the price going down due to miners getting hit. AGQ is not a mining stock. It's entirely tied to the bullion price. It goes down due to the daily re-set. Just want to make sure you know what you're working with.

[EE_]

Watch from 7:50 to 10:50

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m5kS5RD1zKQ&feature=related

[messianicdruid]

Wish I knew what was going on.

http://divinecosmos.com/start-here/davids-blog/995-lawsuit-end-tyranny?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+DavidWilcockBlog+%28David+Wil cock+Newsletter%29

This is David Wilcock's most recent interview with Benjamin Fulford in regard to the Trillion-dollar lawsuit that could end the Babylonian system as we know it. It is perhaps the most significant and informative report that I have EVER read. If you really want to understand the world-changing events happening right now, I highly recommend that you take the time to look at this information.

Much of this is not new to me, but it contains details and connections that I had not made earlier.

On Nov. 23, 2011 a lawsuit was filed in a District Court in New York that is destined to bring down the entire Babylonian world order. It involves the Dal Bosco theft of $134 billion worth of bonds a few years ago. I had read of this when the thieves were apprehended in Italy trying to cross the border into Switzerland a few years ago, as this was reported by more than one commentator that I have followed over the years.

Little did I know that this was only the tip of a very large iceberg. Nor did I realize that this was actually a sting operation by Asian royal families to recover the gold that they had loaned the Federal Reserve System back in the 1930's. The bonds (notes on the loan) came due in 1994, but the thieves at the Fed refused to pay back the loan.

The International Court of Justice ruled against the Fed in 1998, but how does anyone collect on a debt when the US military is duped into protecting the Fed? Only now is this coming to light in a US court of law.

[Hatha Sunahara]

Here's a link to another King World News interview--this one with Jim Sinclair about the PM beatdown:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/12/14_Jim_Sinclair_-_Why_Gold_Was_Smashed_Today_%26_Whats_Next.html


Hatha

[ximmy]

It don't matter to Jesus...
http://www.lixohumano.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/jesus_quintana.jpg

[mamboni]

http://divinecosmos.com/start-here/davids-blog/995-lawsuit-end-tyranny?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+DavidWilcockBlog+%28David+Wil cock+Newsletter%29

This is David Wilcock's most recent interview with Benjamin Fulford in regard to the Trillion-dollar lawsuit that could end the Babylonian system as we know it. It is perhaps the most significant and informative report that I have EVER read. If you really want to understand the world-changing events happening right now, I highly recommend that you take the time to look at this information.

Much of this is not new to me, but it contains details and connections that I had not made earlier.

On Nov. 23, 2011 a lawsuit was filed in a District Court in New York that is destined to bring down the entire Babylonian world order. It involves the Dal Bosco theft of $134 billion worth of bonds a few years ago. I had read of this when the thieves were apprehended in Italy trying to cross the border into Switzerland a few years ago, as this was reported by more than one commentator that I have followed over the years.

Little did I know that this was only the tip of a very large iceberg. Nor did I realize that this was actually a sting operation by Asian royal families to recover the gold that they had loaned the Federal Reserve System back in the 1930's. The bonds (notes on the loan) came due in 1994, but the thieves at the Fed refused to pay back the loan.

The International Court of Justice ruled against the Fed in 1998, but how does anyone collect on a debt when the US military is duped into protecting the Fed? Only now is this coming to light in a US court of law.

Where's Leo Wanta when you need him?::)

[midnight rambler]

Watch from 7:50 to 10:50

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m5kS5RD1zKQ&feature=related

"This video has been removed..."

However this one is still up...for now.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=an0FPJyUrpE

[LuckyStrike]

Also, you mentioned the price going down due to miners getting hit. AGQ is not a mining stock. It's entirely tied to the bullion price. It goes down due to the daily re-set. Just want to make sure you know what you're working with.

LOL yeah I know I should've put some better punctuation in.

And no I am not holding AGQ long term, it is a speculative bet, so far it does mirror 2x SLV quite well, if that ever does deteriorate beyond a reasonable point I will sell. I bought DXO when oil crashed from 150 to 35, and got in right at the very bottom, unfortunately it was during a financial crisis and DXO basically exploded (as in taken off the exchange) and I only made like 10%, whereas if it hadn't I would be up several hundred % now.

I do not look at physical and paper as the same, the money I put into paper I can afford to lose.

[Cebu_4_2]

wow...


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LKFnZvuGgXM&feature=related

[MAGNES]

Where's Leo Wanta when you need him?::)

I am sure " Electric Amish " is hiding on here somewhere . lol

Meanwhile we get some confirmation for a further bottom,
gold is basing sideways, the previous candle needs to be
engulfed in a black candle for a short term buy signal.
Tomorrow's Friday, fun times.

[ximmy]

It appears those of us who purchased silver yesterday didn't do too badly...

[Shami-Amourae]

Watch at 9:21. Sounds like one of us:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKLKQrAWuSk

[MAGNES]

It appears those of us who purchased silver yesterday didn't do too badly...

I just got in, haven't checked, but if I was interested
in buying SI and waiting for further drop, I would be
checking regularly to see it come offline slowly. In
2008 it happened pretty fast, some games played,
we documented this, here is a screen from my 2008
Crimex thread. The monster boxes stayed there for
a day.
http://i43.tinypic.com/dvh73s.jpg

http://i41.tinypic.com/2ex60qa.jpg

[MAGNES]

Watch at 9:21. Sounds like one of us:


Which one of us, Leo Wanta, the druggies on here and I love lucifer lovers ?

Sorry couldn't resist.

I watched it, send the fat guy over here, he want's RP's email. lol
Start at about 8:00, it's a very good snippet. FED was swapping
22carat a long time ago, the real bars were already long gone.

How did these videos enter this thread, this is about prices,
fort knox, there is not gold in it, that is why gold keeps dropping
whenever they say so. LOL

Reading LeMetro a long time ago, the masters, you would know,
fundamentals has nothing to do with anything till the wheels come
off. They will be on the right side of that event as well. Every once
and a while they let some steam blow off, seasonal runs.
They are too good at what they do, control.

[MAGNES]

And no I am not holding AGQ long term, it is a speculative bet, so far it does mirror 2x SLV quite well,

You are playing with fire, you should listen to Sparky,
I too have warned many of you on here and on gim.

Try trading this.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=zsl&insttype=&freq=2&show=&time=10

[Sparky]

AGQ and ZSL are both leveraged so you can't hold them long. You have to be "right" on a price direction move within a week or two, or they will clobber you.

My choice for paper silver is Silver Wheaton, which is not leveraged. They own purchase agreements with miners for the silver (and some gold) that gets mined. So they basically own the "rights" to the bullion before it comes out of the ground. As such, the production risk is on the miner, and not SLW, if production fails. The benefit to the miner is the hedging aspect, that they have a contracted purchaser lined up before the silver is mined.

Of course, SLW is not the equivalent of physical silver. Trade paper, hold physical.

[LuckyStrike]

AGQ and ZSL are both leveraged so you can't hold them long. You have to be "right" on a price direction move within a week or two, or they will clobber you.

My choice for paper silver is Silver Wheaton, which is not leveraged. They own purchase agreements with miners for the silver (and some gold) that gets mined. So they basically own the "rights" to the bullion before it comes out of the ground. As such, the production risk is on the miner, and not SLW, if production fails. The benefit to the miner is the hedging aspect, that they have a contracted purchaser lined up before the silver is mined.

Of course, SLW is not the equivalent of physical silver. Trade paper, hold physical.

SLW is my largest holding of mining stocks and has been for some time.

I don't disagree with you that holding leveraged ETF's for the long term is not wise and I don't plan to do it.