PPP poll: Paul leads in Iowa

[Libertytree]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/12/paul-leads-in-iowa.html

Newt Gingrich's campaign is rapidly imploding, and Ron Paul has now taken the lead in Iowa. He's at 23% to 20% for Mitt Romney, 14% for Gingrich, 10% each for Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann, and Rick Perry, 4% for Jon Huntsman, and 2% for Gary Johnson.
Gingrich has now seen a big drop in his Iowa standing two weeks in a row. His share of the vote has gone from 27% to 22% to 14%. And there's been a large drop in his personal favorability numbers as well from +31 (62/31) to +12 (52/40) to now -1 (46/47). Negative ads over the last few weeks have really chipped away at Gingrich's image as being a strong conservative- now only 36% of voters believe that he has 'strong principles,' while 43% think he does not.
Paul's ascendancy is a sign that perhaps campaigns do matter at least a little, in a year where there has been a lot of discussion about whether they still do in Iowa. 22% of voters think he's run the best campaign in the state compared to only 8% for Gingrich and 5% for Romney. The only other candidate to hit double digits on that question is Bachmann at 19%. Paul also leads Romney 26-5 (with Gingrich at 13%) with the 22% of voters who say it's 'very important' that a candidate spends a lot of time in Iowa. Finally Paul leads Romney 29-19 among the 26% of likely voters who have seen one of the candidates in person.
Paul's base of support continues to rely on some unusual groups for a Republican contest. Among voters under 45 he's at 33% to 16% for Romney and 11% for Gingrich. He's really going to need that younger than normal electorate because with seniors Romney's blowing him out 31-15 with Gingrich coming in 2nd at 18%. Paul is also cleaning up 35-14 with the 24% of voters who identify as either Democrats or independents. Romney is actually ahead 22-19 with GOP voters. Young people and non-Republicans are an unusual coalition to hang your hat on in Iowa, and it will be interesting to see if Paul can actually pull it off.
Romney's vote share is up 4 points from a week ago to 20% from it previous 16% standing. His favorability numbers have improved a little bit as well from 48/44 to 49/40. One thing Romney really has going for him is more room for growth than Paul. Among voters who say they're not firmly committed to their current candidate choice, Romney is the second choice for 19% compared to 17% for Perry, 15% for Bachmann, and only 13% for Paul. It's particularly worth noting that among Gingrich- who seems more likely to keep falling than turn it around- voters, he's the second choice of 30% compared to only 11% for Paul.

In addition to having more support right now Paul also has firmer support (73% solidly committed) than Romney does (68% solidly committed.) But at the same time Romney appears to have more room for growth, which could allow him to overtake Paul in the last two weeks.
Two other notes on Romney: he's now winning the electability primary- 25% of voters think he would have the best chance to defeat Obama compared to 17% for Gingrich and 16% for Paul. And he also leads Paul 24-18 among voters who watched the Sioux City debate on Thursday night, confirming general perception that he had the stronger performance.
The rest of the field isn't getting much traction. Among the three candidates tied at 10%, Santorum has gained a couple points compared to last week, Perry has moved up a single point, and Bachmann is down a point. There is some indication that Iowans are warming up to Perry a little bit. He's gone from a -4 (43/47) favorability to a +8 (48/40).
With six candidates in double digits there are still a lot of different things that could happen the final two weeks in Iowa. But it looks like Paul and Romney have emerged as the clear front runners.

[Canadian-guerilla]

Newt Gingrich's campaign is rapidly imploding, and Ron Paul has now taken the lead in Iowa

time for the MSM full court press against Ron Paul

too late for the TPTB to bring in a new ringer against RP, they're stuck with newt

i wonder if the TPTB are " infighting " with each other because of newt gingrich

[Cebu_4_2]

You bet your ass there is infighting amongst them. Even in their own perfect world they are not fully versed on a populace that dont think they are doing the best for mankind (goykind?)

[Libertytree]

The news of this poll is getting around fast and I'd bet a new poll is being bought and paid for right now that will show the exact opposite with newt commanding a 10% lead. You have to know the higher ups in the GOP heads are about to explode at the thought that Ron Paul might very well take it all in Iowa. Now I'm left wondering what they might have up their sleeve to remedy this situation?

[EE_]

Damn, I guess they will have to roll Mitt out front again, since it's becoming most apparent Newt has/is too much garbage to win?
It must suck to be a Republican right now, having to switch your alliance by-weekly.

http://images.sodahead.com/polls/002314315/3023125766_cwkal111121_answer_1_xlarge.gif

[Libertytree]

This just made my day! ;D

New CNN/Marist poll:Iowa Poll: Ron Paul Only GOP Contender Who Can Beat Obama (http://www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/politics/10080-latest-iowa-poll-ron-paul-only-gop-contender-who-can-beat-obama)

Texas Congressman Ron Paul continues to enjoy significant success in Iowa polls. In fact, according to the latest NBC/Marist Iowa poll, Dr. Paul is currently the only (http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/IApolls/IA111127/Republican%20Primary%202012/Complete%20December%204,%202011%20Iowa%20NBC%20New s-Marist%20Poll%20Release.pdf) candidate who can beat Obama. Meanwhile, another Iowa poll shows he has significant favorability among the other candidates. An Iowa poll published by the Des Moines Register shows (http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/12/03/iowa-poll-gingrich-leading-the-pack/) Paul in second place with 18 percent of support, behind Newt Gingrich at 25 percent, but ahead of Mitt Romney at 16 percent. That same poll shows that Paul is considered highly favorable by registered Iowa voters.
Ron Paul’s presidential campaign website notes, “Paul’s Iowa support has grown in the last three Des Moines Register polls from 7 percent in June to 12 percent in October to 18 percent presently. Paul is also among those whose support did not wane over the period the poll was taken.”
Additionally, those polled indicated that if elected, Gingrich would be most likely to have a scandal in the White House. Paul is ranked the least likely of all GOP contenders to have a scandal while President.

The Des Moines Register poll also finds that 24 percent of those questioned view Paul as the most principled candidate, seven points ahead of Michele Bachmann and 13 points ahead of Gingrich. Furthermore, Paul, with 32 percent, was determined by voters in Iowa to be the most fiscally responsible. Gingrich came in second with 15 percent.
“Iowans, after testing Bachmann, after testing Perry, after testing Cain, and now Gingrich, are realizing that Ron Paul, all along, has been their candidate,” says Fritz Wenzel, Paul’s pollster. Unlike many primary fights, “this is becoming a race about principles,” he says, “and Ron Paul has stood up for true conservative principles for decades, not just in the last month.”
The same poll shows that Ron Paul with 17 percent is considered one of the most socially conservative of all the candidates — seven percentage points ahead of Newt Gingrich. The poll also credits Paul with being the candidate most likely to bring about change, economic and otherwise.

According to the latest NBC News/Marist Poll, Ron Paul is in third place, with 17 percent of the vote, just one percent behind Mitt Romney. In the lead is former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, with 26 percent. Those figures do not come as a significant surprise, as Paul has remained among the top three candidates virtually since the start of the race.
The most significant finding in that poll, however, is that the Texas Congressman appears to be the only GOP candidate who has a chance of beating President Obama in 2012. The poll indicates that 42 percent of registered voters in Iowa support Ron Paul, while 42 percent support Obama. A remaining 16 percent are undecided.
In other hypothetical matchups, the numbers are not nearly as close. In matchups with Romney and Gingrich, Obama comes out on top by seven and 10 percentage points respectively, with 15 and 16 percent respectively undecided.
Among Independents in Iowa, Paul leads Obama 42 to 35 percent, attracting 15 percent of Iowa Democrats. When those aged 45 and under were polled, Paul beat Obama by 14 points.
“Ron Paul is definitely for real out here,” says Tim Albrecht, the communications director for Iowa Governor Terry Branstad, who has not endorsed any GOP candidate. “He is going to get 18 percent in the caucuses no matter what. If there’s a snowstorm, he’ll probably win, since he has such dedicated, passionate supporters. The question is whether he can move higher than that.”
Appearing on CNN Sunday, Paul asserted his belief that he can close the gap between himself and Gingrich. “We’re getting pretty close to it being within the margin of error,” said Paul. “I think we can continue to do what we’re doing.”

He also addressed his ability to capture support from all parties:
You don’t win just with a hard-core Republican base. You have to have a candidate that’s going to appeal across the political spectrum.
I think with my views, they’re quite different than the hard-edge views [that] so many on the Republican side are frequently showing.
During that same interview, Paul called himself “the flavor of the decade,” as opposed to all the other “flavors of the month,” referring to the roller-coaster campaigns of his fellow candidates.
Some attribute Paul’s current success in Iowa to his efficiently run Iowa campaign, comprised of a strong online presence, fervent volunteers, and significant fundraising.
“He’s run the most traditional caucus campaign of the year,” Albrecht says. “Multiple mailers, multiple ads, and multiple visits. Rick Perry has run ads, but hasn’t really visited. Mitt Romney has taken the shy approach, and Newt Gingrich hasn’t been here as often.”
Trygve Olson, a senior Paul advisor, adds,
Ron Paul’s Internet operation is to Republicans in 2012 what Barack Obama’s Internet operation was to Democrats in 2007 and 2008. It’s very grassroots and national, with thousands of very active supporters who spread the message in every state.

That energy is the undercurrent to what’s happening on the ground, where people are going person to person.
While Paul’s fellow candidates have witnessed major shifts in their support — taking the opportunity to rain blows on one another — Paul’s campaign has remained relatively quiet, and has managed to raise a great deal of money and build an efficient operation in Iowa.
“This was a movement when he first started running in 2008,” says Olson. “Now it’s turned into a highly professionalized campaign, but the energy from that last run is still there, and at the heart of what’s keeping up his momentum.”

CBS News notes (http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-215_162-57337338/why-to-like-the-odds-for-a-ron-paul-upset/) the significance of a Paul victory in Iowa:
If Paul wins Iowa, the upset could upend what many politicos say is a two-man race between Gingrich and Romney. According to state GOP insiders, a Paul victory is a real possibility. In background conversations, many say Paul is much stronger than outside observers believe, with deep and wide support among a frustrated electorate. With Herman Cain’s departure from the race, operatives see Paul potentially collecting a quarter of caucus attendees.
Meanwhile, Paul’s campaign is beginning to show some teeth. His most recent television advertisement, entitled “Big Dog (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXCZVmQ74OA&feature=youtu.be),” highlights Paul as the only candidate with a concrete plan to cut spending and significantly reduce the deficit. The ad describes the other GOP contenders as “whimpering like little Shih-Tzus” when it comes to spending cuts.
“Department of Education? Gone. Interior? Energy? HUD? Commerce? Gone,” the ad says. “Want to drain the swamp? Ron Paul. Do it.”

Driving that point home may be essential in Paul’s campaign, because a new poll finds that among Republican caucus-goers, support to close federal departments is significant. That poll finds that 60 percent would like to see the Department of Housing and Urban Development closed, while 54 percent favor shutting down the Department of Education. Likewise, 57 percent of respondents want to do away with the Environmental Protection Agency. A significant number support the closing of the Department of Energy (45), the Transportation Security Administration (42), the Federal Reserve Bank (36), Department of Commerce (34), and the Department of the Interior (32)

http://www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/politics/10080-latest-iowa-poll-ron-paul-only-gop-contender-who-can-beat-obama

[gunDriller]

The news of this poll is getting around fast and I'd bet a new poll is being bought and paid for right now that will show the exact opposite with newt commanding a 10% lead. You have to know the higher ups in the GOP heads are about to explode at the thought that Ron Paul might very well take it all in Iowa. Now I'm left wondering what they might have up their sleeve to remedy this situation?

personally, i am concerned for his safety.

my guess is, Israel & their supporters are preparing their Sirhan Sirhan right now. someone that would have a justification for not liking Ron Paul, someone that would not lead back to Israel during an investigation - even with all their abilities at cover-ups.

i won't elaborate because i don't want to give the fvckers any ideas !

[Canadian-guerilla]

Ron Paul accident = tipping point to 2nd revolution

[Awoke]

personally, i am concerned for his safety.


Absolutely. RP is anti-war, so if he ever got elected, the inside job FF events would be serious and ubiquitous, and who knows how far they would go to get him? Never underestimate the diabolical lengths that the servants of Ba'al will go to, in order to carry out their agenda.

[Awoke]

Ron Paul accident = tipping point to 2nd revolution

Which might be playing right into their hands. Or not. The only way a Revolution would ever work out in out favor is if it closed with the utter destruction of the MIC, the Neo-con cabal, the Banker elites, and bloated Federal government.

Anything outside of that is going to be furthing the NWO plan. We need a complete return to the basic constitutionally outlined government of Republic Autonomous States, or we're fucked.

[Canadian-guerilla]

from whatreallyhappened.com

http://whatreallyhappened.com/IMAGES/MED_RPPOSTER2.jpg

[EE_]

Maybe now we won't have to hear the MSM hacks asking Ron if he'll run third party for the umteenth thousand time, any more.

http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/2011/12/newt-gingrich-already-over/46369/
Celebrities always die in threes, and today we have Vaclav Havel, Kim Jong Il, and the presidential aspirations of Newt Gingrich. No one would be happier to rank Gingrich with those two than Gingrich himself. "How do we make sure this train wreck doesn't happen?" an unnamed "party chairman in a battleground state" told The New York Times' Jackie Calmes. "That's the conversation among the politicos." Well, politicos, consider the train stopped. Gingrich is now polling behind Ron Paul and Mitt Romney in Iowa.

Politico's Jonathan Martin reports that Gingrich has hired Martin Baker, a "well-regarded GOP consultant," to be his political director, which one Republican called "a sign he's finally recognizing the need to professionalize." Baker starts his job Tuesday, which looks to be a bit too late. Gingrich's numbers have dropped steadily for the last two weeks, National Journal's Ron Fournier points out. He's following the same pattern as Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, and Herman Cain. A month gives the press enough time to give voters all the reasons the underdog was at the back of the pack to begin with. As the Atlantic Wire's Dashiell Bennett notes, in the Public Policy Polling survey that puts Gingrich in third, only 36 percent think Gingrich has "strong principles." That's despite the fact that Gingrich is now advocating that U.S. Marshals arrest activist judges.

Meanwhile, Real Clear Politics' Jeremy Lott argues that if Paul wins Iowa, he could win New Hampshire. "The Paul campaign has thrown a marker down in Iowa and it has thrown it wisely: must win third place or better on Jan. 3," Lott writes. "That way, if they take second, they beat the expectations game. And if they take first, it's a whole new race for New Hampshire a week later." And that is how a new Not-Romney is born.