Iowa polls: Melonhead fades, Paul pulls ahead

[midnight rambler]

I'm tellin' ya, it's the race between the wise tortoise and the foolish hare.

http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/2011/12/gingrich-collapses-iowa-ron-paul-surges-front/46360/

[Awoke]

That link was a pain in the ass to load.

Here you go people:

Gingrich Collapses in Iowa as Ron Paul Surges to the Front

http://cdn.theatlanticwire.com/img/upload/2011/12/19/AP111215118238/large.jpg AP


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Dashiell Bennett (http://www.theatlanticwire.com/authors/dashiell-bennett/) 225,191 Views 7:26 AM ET
A new poll from Public Policy Polling shows that Ron Paul has taken the lead in the Iowa (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/12/paul-leads-in-iowa.html) caucus race, while Newt Gingrich's support is fading fast. A different Gallup poll shows Gringrich still holding the lead (http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2011-12-18/gingrich-poll-romney-iowa/52055708/1), but slipping, while The New York Times has Paul in the lead (https://twitter.com/#!/fivethirtyeight/status/148640169606643712) as well.
Gingrich has seen his numbers in the PPP poll drop from 27 percent to 14 percent in just three weeks, while his favorability rating is now split at 46 percent for to 47 percent against, the worst of any candidate not named Jon Huntsman. That's quite a fall (http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog/watercooler/2011/dec/19/picket-new-ppp-poll-shows-gingrich-support-droppin/) for someone who looked to be running away with the state and taking charge on the national level.
Mitt Romney has also seen his numbers tick up slightly (to 20%), putting him just behind Paul (23%) for second place. The poll measured voters who are planning to vote in the Republican caucus.
Perhaps the most telling secondary question was, "Do you think Newt Gingrich has strong principles?" Only 36 percent say that he does, but for Paul that number was 73 percent.
The bad news for Paul, however, is that when asked for their second choice for President, only 9% said they would vote for him after their preferred candidate. That means if supporters of any of the second-tier candidates sense defeat and decided to abandon their choice at the last minute, those votes are more likely to go to Romney. Even if Romney doesn't win, the stronger than expected showing could be the snowball that starts a primary avalanche for him.
One other tidbit from the PPP poll, the first question about Barack Obama asked if the respondents think he was born in the United States. Fifty-two percent either said he was not or they're not sure.
Update: Here's an alternate take on the PPP poll. (http://unlikelyvoter.com/2011/12/19/debunking-ppp-in-iowa/)
Want to add to this story? Let us know in comments (http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/2011/12/gingrich-collapses-iowa-ron-paul-surges-front/46360/#dsq-content) or send an email to the author at dashiell@dashiellbennett.com. You can share ideas for stories on the Open Wire (http://www.theatlanticwire.com/open-wire/).
[/URL][URL="http://twitter.com/dashb0t"]Dashiell Bennett (http://twitter.com/dashb0t)

Topics: Iowa Caucuses (http://www.theatlanticwire.com/topics/iowa-caucuses/), Ron Paul (http://www.theatlanticwire.com/topics/ron-paul/), Newt Gingrich (http://www.theatlanticwire.com/topics/newt-gingrich/)

[Awoke]

The bad news for Paul, however, is that when asked for their second choice for President, only 9% said they would vote for him after their preferred candidate. That means if supporters of any of the second-tier candidates sense defeat and decided to abandon their choice at the last minute, those votes are more likely to go to Romney.

You see what I see?
They are posting this number of 9% representing Ron Paul as a SECOND CHOICE.

They were scared to post the % number that represents Ron Paul as a FIRST choice.

That, ladies and gentlemen, is programming.
"Ron Paul only has support of 9% as a presidential pick"

[Libertytree]

You see what I see?
They are posting this number of 9% representing Ron Paul as a SECOND CHOICE.

They were scared to post the % number that represents Ron Paul as a FIRST choice.

That, ladies and gentlemen, is programming.
"Ron Paul only has support of 9% as a presidential pick"

I guess they'll be left with more than a little egg on their faces when this gets around.

"Texas Congressman Ron Paul continues to enjoy significant success in Iowa polls. In fact, according to the latest NBC/Marist Iowa poll, Dr. Paul is currently the only (http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/IApolls/IA111127/Republican%20Primary%202012/Complete%20December%204,%202011%20Iowa%20NBC%20New s-Marist%20Poll%20Release.pdf) candidate who can beat Obama. "

[gunDriller]

is it, 2 weeks from tomorrow Tuesday Dec. 20 is Jan. 3 -

"Iowa Republicans are holding their state's presidential nominating caucuses on Jan. 3, even though New Hampshire is threatening to move its traditional first-in-the-nation primary into December."

how do they count the votes for the Iowa caucuses - do they count them by hand, use Liebold, or what ?

[midnight rambler]

Latest from Gallup -


Bottom Line
Recent surveys of potential Iowa Republican caucus-goers show Gingrich falling behind Romney and Paul, after Gingrich led the field from mid-November through early December. This has been widely attributed to the barrage of negative ads that Gingrich's Republican opponents have run against him in Iowa. However, even though Republicans nationwide have likely not seen or heard these ads, they have toned down their support for the former speaker, once again moving Romney close to front-runner status -- something he hasn't had an undisputed claim on since July. Unfortunately for Romney, the sizable percentage of the vote put in play by Gingrich's recent decline has not all gone his way, but instead has been scattered among the entire field. This fits the pattern seen over and over again in 2011, in which Romney fails to benefit each time various Republican candidates have fizzled out after surging. That this pattern continues today adds to the body of evidence that a segment of Republican voters want to nominate someone other than Romney.


http://www.gallup.com/poll/151616/Gingrich-Lead-Romney-Among-Republicans-Collapses.aspx?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=syndication&utm_content=morelink&utm_term=All%20Gallup%20Headlines%20-%20Politics

[EE_]

http://i721.photobucket.com/albums/ww217/MaggiegirlEE/chris_wallace_fox.jpg

[JohnQPublic]

Now they are switching to Huntsman. I think the American sheeple have learned from Obama (the last dark horse). I am already hearing the Huntsman refrain when I talk to people about Ron Paul (I like Paul, but maybe Huntsman would be a better choice...).

[Joe King]

You see what I see?
They are posting this number of 9% representing Ron Paul as a SECOND CHOICE.

They were scared to post the % number that represents Ron Paul as a FIRST choice.

That, ladies and gentlemen, is programming.
"Ron Paul only has support of 9% as a presidential pick"You're reading it wrong. What that's saying is that 9% of the people who support someone other than RP would support RP if their guy dropped out of the race right now.

I think it's not bad if 9% of all your opponets supportors would pick you as second choice.

[Ponce]

All that we have had in the White House up till today have been nothing but fools and traitors at the disposal to those who will pay more............and we all know who the buyers are......."those" people will support every candidate going for the White House to make sure that "they" will have a winner at their mercy..........the only one that they have been unable to buy is our next president and a man for the people.......Ron Paul.

[midnight rambler]

Now they are switching to Huntsman. I think the American sheeple have learned from Obama (the last dark horse). I am already hearing the Huntsman refrain when I talk to people about Ron Paul (I like Paul, but maybe Huntsman would be a better choice...).

imo, Huntsman is the sleeper. Was listening to some of his spiel and I see how it can tickle the ears of the foolish, ignorant masses.

[sirgonzo420]

imo, Huntsman is the sleeper. Was listening to some of his spiel and I see how it can tickle the ears of the foolish, ignorant masses.

I wish he'd talk more about Kolob.

[Awoke]

You're reading it wrong. What that's saying is that 9% of the people who support someone other than RP would support RP if their guy dropped out of the race right now.

I think it's not bad if 9% of all your opponets supportors would pick you as second choice.

They didn't specify that they were talking about people who had someone else as a first choice. Your interpretation of what they are saying is the desired interpretation by the media crafters, but I think my interpretation is the actual truth of what they are hiding in plain sight.

If that was not the case, they would simply just state the percentage of people who have Ron Paul as a first choice and be done with it, no?

[Joe King]

They didn't specify that they were talking about people who had someone else as a first choice. Your interpretation of what they are saying is the desired interpretation by the media crafters, but I think my interpretation is the actual truth of what they are hiding in plain sight.

If that was not the case, they would simply just state the percentage of people who have Ron Paul as a first choice and be done with it, no?You no read so good.




The bad news for Paul, however, is that when asked for their second choice for President, only 9% said they would vote for him after their preferred candidate


You really don't understand that the words, "when asked for their second choice for President" implies that the ones asked already have a first chioce?
...and you also think you're so good at figuring out things about other people based on their posts? Get real. lol

[Awoke]

I don't think I am explaining what I mean very clearly.
Here is the quote:

"The bad news for Paul, however, is that when asked for their second choice for President, only 9% said they would vote for him after their preferred candidate"

Well maybe that's because only 9% of them have him as a second choice, and the rest have him as a first choice.

[Joe King]

I don't think I am explaining what I mean very clearly.
Here is the quote:

"The bad news for Paul, however, is that when asked for their second choice for President, only 9% said they would vote for him after their preferred candidate"

Well maybe that's because only 9% of them have him as a second choice, and the rest have him as a first choice.If so, that would mean they actually askd RP supportors and not those of his opponents as was stated in the article.

It was pretty clear by what was written that, taken as a group, 9 out of every 100 of his opponents supportors would swith to RP if their first choice were no longer in the race.

You honestly can't see the meaning in the article? ???

[Awoke]

If so, that would mean they actually askd RP supportors and not those of his opponents as was stated in the article.


They never stated that they were only asking his opponents.



It was pretty clear by what was written that, taken as a group, 9 out of every 100 of his opponents supportors would swith to RP if their first choice were no longer in the race.


Agreed.


You honestly can't see the meaning in the article? ???

I'm pointing out the potential for opinion making instead of statistic reporting. The media lies so much and concocts so many bullshit stories to sway opinions that I am very leary of articles. So I see the meaning they want you to see, and I see loopholes that leave room for tacit confessions, used to public opinion forming.

73% of people interviewed feel RP is a man of strong principals, yet only 9% would pick him as a second choice?

[Joe King]

They never stated that they were only asking his opponents.If they ask people who they would vote for after their preferred choice and they pick RP, that can only mean that they currently prefer someone other than RP.




Agreed.'bout time you did that. ;)




I'm pointing out the potential for opinion making instead of statistic reporting. The media lies so much and concocts so many bullshit stories to sway opinions that I am very leary of articles. So I see the meaning they want you to see, and I see loopholes that leave room for tacit confessions, used to public opinion forming.

73% of people interviewed feel RP is a man of strong principals, yet only 9% would pick him as a second choice?Sorry, but you're either confused or simply choosing to see what's not there.
ie it says that 9 out of every 100 of his opponets supportors would pick him as a second chioce pick.

Why would people who already have RP as a first choice, pick him as second choice if their first choice {RP} drops out of the race? That wouldn't make any sense at all.

[Awoke]

it says that 9 out of every 100 of his opponets supportors would pick him as a second chioce pick.

OMG dude, it does not say that. It says "The poll measured voters who are planning to vote in the Republican caucus."


Why would people who already have RP as a first choice, pick him as second choice if their first choice {RP} drops out of the race? That wouldn't make any sense at all.

Exactly my point. By way of playing on the 9% stat, they make RP sound as if he has no real support from the people. They make no mention of his support as first choice pick from that poll.

[Joe King]

OMG dude, it does not say that. It says "The poll measured voters who are planning to vote in the Republican caucus."Right. But it further clarified that they were asking who their second choice was.

For RP to be a persons second choice, it stands to reason that their first choice was someone other than RP.




Exactly my point. By way of playing on the 9% stat, they make RP sound as if he has no real support from the people.What it says is that he could easily have 9% of all his opponents support.
...and likely much more if those people were forced to re-examine their choice if their current one quit the race.



They make no mention of his support as first choice pick from that poll.Of course not. It wasn't asked of RP supportors, but rather it was asked of his opponents supportors.