Suggestions for a SHTF Index

[Sparky]

What objective measures would you include in an index to monitor a general degradation to a SHTF scenario? It would be interesting to examine some fundamental components to track this, though it would be hard to keep objective. Once we agreed on the components, maybe we could do a regional GSUS poll. The idea would be to rate each component 0-10. It would need to be a prevailing rating for an entire region, either the U.S., or large regions of the U.S. Below are some thoughts. Maybe others have more suggestions:

1) Accessibility of food- A rating of 0 would mean that you can essentially go to the grocery store and get whatever you want, at what would be considered historically cheap prices. A 5 would mean that prices are noticeably high for all items (not just specific items), and there may occasionally be some items that are temporarily unavailable. A 10 would mean that you would go to the grocery store with the expectation that there would be little food available at any price. I'd assess the current situation as a 2. I'm surprised how relatively inexpensive food is considering its real value, and how most everything remains available.
2) Accessibility of water- Similar metric as food. In my part of the country, I'd rate this as a 3. Water is widely available to all, but some local water costs are high, and bottled water isn't cheap. In some regions, it is not as readily available.
3) Accessibility of gasoline. Widely available, but historically expensive. I'd rate this a 5. A rating of 0 might be current wide availability at under a buck a gallon. A 10 would be gas lines, rations, and $10+ per gallon.
4) Accessibility to heating energy (gas, oil, propane, etc.). I'd rate a 4; similar to heating energy, but natural gas remains relatively less costly.
5) Accessibility of other supplies. I'd rate this as a 2. I can still get whatever I want, but some things are somewhat expensive by historical standards. Other things remain surprisingly inexpensive for their value.
6) Functioning of the banking and currency system. I'd rate this a 1. Cash is still readily available at banks and ATMs, with only anecdotal disruptions. For the most part, you can convert your digital account to a payable bank check at any time, or convert a check to cash, or back to digital. During 2008, I would have bumped this up to a 3 on a regional basis where bank failures were observed, but it still remained relatively isolated. A 10 would be a nearly complete breakdown in the banking system, where you couldn't access your account, or with limited availability to FRNs.
7) Availability of revolving credit. I'd rate this a 2. It still seems like credit is widely available, even to those of meager means, but it has contracted somewhat, especially for younger people.
8 ) Availability of non-revolving credit. Cheap mortgages for unqualified people would be a 0, like in 2007. Tight credit at 20+% interest rates would be a 10. I'd say we're at a 2 right now with historically low rates, but not accessible to all.
9) Accessibility to digital and paper investments. If you own stock or paper assets, can you liquidate them easily. For the most part, this still works fine, but there are occasional high-profile issues as with MF Global. I'd put this at a 1. A 10 would mean most all paper assets are frozen or non-convertible.
10) Availability and cost of housing. Housing is still widely available, but regionally expensive historically. I'd put this at a 5.
11) Incidences/intensity of public demonstrations. The Occupy scuffles would push this up to a 2.
12) Incidence of violent crime. Historically, we're probably somewhere in the middle, but most people are generally safe. I'd say a 3, factoring in high publicity events. But most crime is concentrated into known areas.
13) Incidence of personal property theft and home invasion. Maybe a 3.
14) Rate of unemployment. The nominal rate is 8.5%, the underemployment rate is 16%. Historically, this is probably at about a 6.
15) Restrictions of civil rights and liberties. We complain, and the trend is getting worse, but I think we're still only at about a 3.
16) Restrictions and availability of firearms and ammunition. Also still good, with an ominous trend. 3 for now.

That's what I've got so far. Adding up my totals, I get a 47 out of 160 total points, which is 29%, or a SHTF Index of 29 on a 100-scale. A SHTF threat probably starts at about a 50, with crisis mode beginning at 75.

Feel free to suggest other components, or criticize my initial assessments. I think a challenge is making the distinction between a global, national, regional, or local assessment. My suggested number are for the U.S. as a whole. This can be a GSUS work in progress.

[platinumdude]

http://www.raptureready.com/rap2.html

[Sparky]

For comparison, here's how I would have rated things during the height of the 1970's recession:

1) Food = 5. Expensive but no shortages. Meat was prohibitively expensive for some.
2) Water = 0. Incredibly cheap and available.
3) Gasoline = 8. Fights in gas lines, at relatively expensive prices.
4) Heating Fuel= 6.
5) Other Supplies = 4. Similar to food, i.e. available but pricey.
6) Banking system = 2. Still worked, with isolated incidences of failure.
7) Revolving credit = 6. Would have peaked at about 8 in the 1980s, with 20% rates.
8 ) Non-revolving credit = 6. Would have peaked at about 8 in the 1980s, with 15% mortgage rates.
9) Paper investments = 2. No widespread problems.
10) Housing = 5. There was a bump in prices and rates were elevated.
11) Violent demonstrations = 3
12) Violent crime = 6. Urban areas were notably worse than today.
13) Property theft = 5.
14) Unemployment = 6.
15) Restriction of liberties = 2.
16) Restriction of firearms = 3.

Total of 63/160, for an index of 39. That seems about right. I still think it was worse at the height of the 1970s than it is now, but it didn't really approach SHTF levels.

[Sparky]

http://www.raptureready.com/rap2.html
Interesting and related, but I'm eliminating the spiritual and prophetic fulfillment element.

[Spectrism]

Interesting and related, but I'm eliminating the spiritual and prophetic fulfillment element.

I like the concept. If, however, you eliminate the spiritual/scriptural/prophetic portion, you really have no foresight about what comes next. I know why you do it. Also, you are not looking at major global influences, starting from debt and going to wars, earth calamities, international economic changes.

With just the initial items, you could be at 60/160 and the next day a worldwide monetary system shuts down as the Euro crashes, war erupts in Korea & Iran, and Russia moves two armies into Turkey.

[Sparky]

I like the concept. If, however, you eliminate the spiritual/scriptural/prophetic portion, you really have no foresight about what comes next.
...

I wasn't really looking at it as predictive; more of an ongoing "assessment". For example, from my previous post, I don't think we've even matched the 1970s recession yet.

[Spectrism]

I wasn't really looking at it as predictive; more of an ongoing "assessment". For example, from my previous post, I don't think we've even matched the 1970s recession yet.

Yes- not a bad idea to look at where we are compared with history. One challenge is to sort through the fake numbers and methods for counting those numbers.

Putting it on a bar chart might be a nice presentation.

I also like the idea of making it useful for predicting when things will crash- if at all possible. It could impact what we do- like avoiding cities or buying certain preps. When an item/category goes into the red zone, we can be more sensitive to those news items.

[Sparky]

OK, now adding a SHTF Doom Clock. You know, just for fun. ;)
Initial target date: March 7, 2014.

Today: February 20, 2012
Index: 29/100
Target: March 7, 2014
T- 746 days and counting

Have a nice day.

:)

[Book]

It would need to be a prevailing rating for an entire region, either the U.S., or large regions of the U.S.



http://www.lawboiseid.com/Boise_Divorce_Attorney__3_.jpg

Thought-provoking thread Sparky.

Compared to Boise, Idaho it appears to me that much of the USA has already scored high in the SHTF index. Even in this very depressed economy, this town is very civil and relatively low-crime. Half the index doesn't even apply here. I imagine there are other areas also immune from this:

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_GVV37PRkPps/Swz71aBuDxI/AAAAAAAAABk/QJI6nivM4RU/s1600/lariotslongislanduniversity.jpg

:)

[vacuum]

Missed this thread. It would be good to have these reports quarterly, Sparky.

[EE_]

Society should remain at index 29 until bankers are unable to print money out of thin air, or after Obama's second term, when a world government is set up and with a new global currency.
A 75 index is possible then.

[DMac]

Great thread idea Sparky. Kind of like the SHTF VIX :)

We could compile weekly, monthly, quarterly and even yoy reports. Package them and sell financial products based on the "GSUS SHTF NDX".

Call ChairSatan, we've discovered a fix to the depression! SHTF bubbles :D

In all seriousness though, I like the idea.

[Sparky]

Society should remain at index 29 until bankers are unable to print money out of thin air, or after Obama's second term, when a world government is set up and with a new global currency.
A 75 index is possible then.
If you're saying that the current monetary policy is masking problems, and that a SHTF situation could flare up rapidly, I agree that there's a very good possibility of that.

[gunDriller]

Great thread idea Sparky. Kind of like the SHTF VIX :)

We could compile weekly, monthly, quarterly and even yoy reports. Package them and sell financial products based on the "GSUS SHTF NDX".

Call ChairSatan, we've discovered a fix to the depression! SHTF bubbles :D

In all seriousness though, I like the idea.


let's keep it going !

i did a search in General Discussion for "Depression" -
http://gold-silver.us/forum/search.php?searchid=515226


One "point on a curve" that I thought was really interesting - it's basically the surfing equivalent of cancelling the Super Bowl.

that may sound like a "niche market" - but there are probably about as many active surfers as there are active football players (including touch football).

ANYHOW, Billabong has cancelled their Jeffrey's Bay contest. J-Bay is one of the most revered Right-Hand point breaks in the world. It is hard to communicate the imporance of it, except to use the metaphor of the Super Bowl being cancelled.

It was cancelled because the main sponsor is running short of marketing $ - even though they already paid $ for the rights to the contest. No secondary sponsor had the $ to fill the void.

It doesn't mean people are surfing less - it just means they're making do with last year's board-shorts, surf-boards, etc. (not hard to do).


Because GNP - GROSS National Product - is basically a summation of purchasing transactions, and price increases of new stuff exceed GNP growth - that tells us that people are buying less real stuff - even though there are more people.

Plus they don't count the real unemployed, which John Williams is currently counting as about 22%.

I think this is what an Economic Depression feels like, when the government spends 24/7 trying to put a 'happy face' on it, and their jokers at the market exchanges use HFT to prop up one market and naked shorts (in PM markets) to prop up the $ (which needs a lot of propping.)


Short version - TSHTF index is close to Max.

If the economy is a glacier, titanic icebergs are falling off every day.

[Sparky]

...
that may sound like a "niche market" - but there are probably about as many active surfers as there are active football players (including touch football).
...

Short version - TSHTF index is close to Max.

If the economy is a glacier, titanic icebergs are falling off every day.

I'll accept this as a block of ice falling off the glacier, but for perspective, there are easily 5,000 football fans for every surfer fan, and the fans (consumers) are what make it relevant. I think when TSHTF Index is close to Max, there will be no masking it.

[gunDriller]

I'll accept this as a block of ice falling off the glacier, but for perspective, there are easily 5,000 football fans for every surfer fan, and the fans (consumers) are what make it relevant. I think when TSHTF Index is close to Max, there will be no masking it.

you're right, football might be a $100 Billion industry, surfing probably is around $10 Billion.

but side-stepping surfing, and listening to all the other things, i think we are close to Max on TSHTF-Q scale.

mainly, in the economy, it is actively visibly contracting. prices on most manufactured goods have risen 10% to 20% since last year. GNP has barely grown. in terms of real goods purchased, the economy has contracted somewhere 8% to 18%.

that is an economic Depression. if you go down to a "Rescue Mission" type place (homeless shelter), a lot of the people who homeless & needing help are not there because of drug/ alcohol problems. they are there because the economy left them in the dust.


besides economic disintegration, all of the things that people would use to judge TSHTF, e.g. a false flag attack on the US, the declaration of martial law - the first has already happened, for the second we have a wierd post Patriot Act/ post-NDAA/ post-Food Safety Act (so farmers get the gestapo treatment too) society.

similar to martial law, combined with the public media face of "everything is OK".

add in the travel restrictions (DHS, TSA) & capital controls (FBAR's) and it is equivalent to martial law. without US troops in the streets or the declaration of martial law.


if the scale was 1-10 i would say the index is about 9.5.

[Sparky]

I dunno GD. I'm in the camp that says we ain't seen nuthin' yet. Can't be 9.5 (or a 95 on my 100 point scale) if there's a lot more to come. I think there's a lot more to come. Trying to keep this a stable index (i.e. not react to every headline), but some small mods are in order (shown in color with comment):

1) Food = 3. Still surprisingly cheap, but bumping up due to smaller size deception.
2) Water = 3.
3) Gasoline = 6. Bumped up as gas reaches $4. Still no shortages though.
4) Heating Fuel= 5. Bumped. Low NatGas offsets high oil price.
5) Other Supplies = 2.
6) Banking system = 3. Bumped for quasi-Greek default. But there's still no real difficulty getting at your account, or FRNs out of an ATM.
7) Revolving credit = 2.
8 ) Non-revolving credit = 2.
9) Paper investments = 2.
10) Housing = 5.
11) Public demonstrations = 3. Bumped this to acknowledge activity abroad, which could portend the U.S. future.
12) Violent crime = 3.
13) Property theft = 3.
14) Unemployment = 6.
15) Restriction of liberties = 4. Bumped. It's the mounting minor personal intrusions that are creeping in. Still preferable to much of the world though.
16) Restriction of firearms = 3.

Today: February 28, 2012
Index: 34/100
Target: March 7, 2014
T- 738 days and counting

[Sparky]

Today: April 25, 2012
Index: 34/100
Target: March 7, 2014
T- 681 days and counting

[DMac]

I'm in the camp that says we ain't seen nuthin' yet.


I couldn't agree more Sparky. The old analogy: "It's a recession when you lose your job, depression when I lose my job" is still quite applicable. As much as unemployment is really high, IMO, it's still in 'ugly recession' territory, not hardcore depression territory.

It's been said by pundits over and over for the past 4 years that the US economy has gone off the cliff. But this must be a Looney Tunes style cliff, cause we haven't begun falling at terminal velocity yet. Most are still looking at the scenery thinking 'wow what a nice view', not 'AAAAAAHHHHHH I'M FALLING TO MY DOOOOOM!!!!!'

[gunDriller]

It's been said by pundits over and over for the past 4 years that the US economy has gone off the cliff. But this must be a Looney Tunes style cliff, cause we haven't begun falling at terminal velocity yet. Most are still looking at the scenery thinking 'wow what a nice view', not 'AAAAAAHHHHHH I'M FALLING TO MY DOOOOOM!!!!!'

there are McDonald's franchises on the side of the cliff.

so you can order a Big Mac with Fries & a Chocolate Shake on the way down.

[MNeagle]

OK, now adding a SHTF Doom Clock. You know, just for fun. ;)
Initial target date: March 7, 2014.

Today: February 20, 2012
Index: 29/100
Target: March 7, 2014
T- 746 days and counting

Have a nice day.

:)

Why this date??

[Sparky]

Why this date??

It's just my own personal guess.

BTW, back on GIM, I had asked posters to fill in the blank:

"If a major SHTF scenario hasn't occurred by [fill in the year], then I'll concede that I completely misjudged the situation back in 2012, and a SHTF may never occur as we envisioned it."

For me, the answer would be something like 2025. I could imagine the government twisting and turning and faking their way along for a long time, but by the middle of next decade, the crush associated with the wave of baby boomer retirees seems to be the inescapable breaking point. If there hasn't been a major dislocation in society and the financial system by then, then I would have to concede that it could on indefinitely for another century or more.

Any one else want to offer a year? And please, no "TSHTF has already occurred" answers, cuz that's bull. Our current conditions don't even rival the 1970s yet. And try to avoid the "never" answer too, cuz that's too much of a boring copout.

[old steel]

I'll give it another year because i don't think anything major will be allowed to happen until the election is over. Of course there could be something big like an huge earthquake or massive Y class flare that takes down the grid totally catching us off guard.

My date is May 20, 2013.

[old steel]

Of course i could be a year late and a dollar short.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x28_baCbZXM

[collector]

If earthquake X happens it'll be the end of Fukishima...and a lot more !!

[Spectrism]

If earthquake X happens it'll be the end of Fukishima...and a lot more !!

yeup. the days will be shortened.... so that the end will come while there is still life left on the planet.

[gunDriller]

gold hit $1900 (or was it the high 1800's ?) in the wake of the August 2011 debt ceiling wierdness.

now gold is plummeting because people are racing to the dollar, because Europe is looking BAD and China is slowing down.


i wonder if you could make an useful index by measuring $ outflows into gold - or out of gold. paper vs. physical.

if you could get all that data, there's probably a useful index in there somewhere.


there's the Leadership Dry Rot that precedes the impact on the general public. e.g. mothers in Greece giving their children to orphanages because it's all fallen apart.

right now i'd say the Leadership Dry Rot and the Social Pain parts of the SHTF index are high & moving higher.


you could probably also add anti-depressant consumption numbers to the index.


there's also the "Destroy the Environment" parts of the index. the human species is doing very 'well' in that department. between the Gulf disaster, Fukushima, and general mis-management of pollution as manufacturing that was deemed 'too dirty' for the US is spread to other parts of the world.

could probably also add the Pacific Plastic Patch to the index. quantifying it would require some judgment calls - by tonnage of plastic ? by destruction of cubic miles of eco-system ?

as the economy falls apart and profit pressures increase, we will be hearing "we don't have money for that" more & more. e.g. "we don't have money to store the radioactive waste that this reactor has created".

[JDRock]

bump...

[Sparky]

I dunno GD. I'm in the camp that says we ain't seen nuthin' yet. Can't be 9.5 (or a 95 on my 100 point scale) if there's a lot more to come. I think there's a lot more to come. Trying to keep this a stable index (i.e. not react to every headline), but some small mods are in order (shown in color with comment):

1) Food = 3. Still surprisingly cheap, but bumping up due to smaller size deception.
2) Water = 3.
3) Gasoline = 6. Bumped up as gas reaches $4. Still no shortages though.
4) Heating Fuel= 5. Bumped. Low NatGas offsets high oil price.
5) Other Supplies = 2.
6) Banking system = 3. Bumped for quasi-Greek default. But there's still no real difficulty getting at your account, or FRNs out of an ATM.
7) Revolving credit = 2.
8 ) Non-revolving credit = 2.
9) Paper investments = 2.
10) Housing = 5.
11) Public demonstrations = 3. Bumped this to acknowledge activity abroad, which could portend the U.S. future.
12) Violent crime = 3.
13) Property theft = 3.
14) Unemployment = 6.
15) Restriction of liberties = 4. Bumped. It's the mounting minor personal intrusions that are creeping in. Still preferable to much of the world though.
16) Restriction of firearms = 3.

Today: February 28, 2012
Index: 34/100
Target: March 7, 2014
T- 738 days and counting
No changes today, but keeping an eye out for potential fallout in banking (Item #6) and Paper Assets (#9) in the wake of MF Global, JPM, and Greek exit from Euro. All of these are potential flash points, but the SHTF Index is intended to reflect current conditions rather than anticipate changes. As of now, I have not heard recent events regarding ability to access accounts or convert paper assets to FRNs. The Greeks are waiting in line to withdraw money, but they're getting it. Subject to change.

Today: May 17, 2012
Index: 34/100
Target: March 7, 2014
T- 659 days and counting

[Uncle Salty]

When cops start looting, the S has HTF.

That is my bottom line barometer.

[Sparky]

OK, considering bumping up Item #2, Accessibility of Water. But I don't have a good vantage point from here in New England, where water remains plentiful and remarkably cheap, even after a somewhat dry summer. Any of you in the big drought areas having trouble getting as much water as you want? For those who pay, have they upped the price?

And while I'm here, I'll update the Doom Clock countdown:

Today: August 16, 2012
Index: 34/100
Target: March 7, 2014
T- 568 days and counting

Such an uplifting thread, right?

[old steel]

I approve of this thread Sparky keep up the good work.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5uASQgLwaIs

[mick silver]

there been no real bad news to talk about , so is there something about to break lose ? cost of food is going up, we know this because the new keeps telling us all how bad the crops are going to be this year .

[MNeagle]

OK, considering bumping up Item #2, Accessibility of Water. But I don't have a good vantage point from here in New England, where water remains plentiful and remarkably cheap, even after a somewhat dry summer. Any of you in the big drought areas having trouble getting as much water as you want? For those who pay, have they upped the price?

And while I'm here, I'll update the Doom Clock countdown:

Today: August 16, 2012
Index: 34/100
Target: March 7, 2014
T- 568 days and counting

Such an uplifting thread, right?

Here's something about wells running dry: http://gold-silver.us/forum/showthread.php?35756-Water-wars&p=565957#post565957

[k-os]

Thanks for updating this thread, Sparky. I was looking for it a couple weeks ago, but apparently wasn't searching for the correct words.

[gunDriller]

my living room is doubling as a wood shop & workshop.

it definitely looks like TSHTF.

[Dogman]

my living room is doubling as a wood shop & workshop.

it definitely looks like TSHTF. So the 'Chips" are hitting the fan?

[gunDriller]

So the 'Chips" are hitting the fan?

the sawdust is hitting the vacuum cleaner filter. :)

[Sparky]

No change to the index quite yet, but the new Fed monetary policy announced today and the Embassy attacks over the last 48 hours got me thinking about the SHTF Index. Another relevant item is the PFGBest segregated accounts event (similar to MF Global). I'm trying to avoid reacting to individual events so that the Index remains a stable representation rather than reactionary. But these might be foreshadowing events that we are watching that could manifest as more tangible effects in the coming weeks and months.

I think a lot of things might be on the brink of deteriorating after the election, going into the start of 2013. This may be followed by a period of action mid-year to make it look like things are under control. Of course, it would be hand-waving, and the next leg down would come after that. This was the general thinking in picking a date for the Doom Clock, which I think continues to be a reasonable guess:

Today: September 13, 2012
Index: 34/100
Target: March 7, 2014
T- 540 days and counting

Note that I chose this date back in February (see Post #8) trying to suggest a realistic date that was not the usual "Doom is 6 months away". Almost 7 months (206 days actually) have elapsed, and I still think this is a reasonable guess.

[JDRock]

Thanks for updating this thread, Sparky. I was looking for it a couple weeks ago, but apparently wasn't searching for the correct words.
i second that, you were as savvy a trader as i have seen back in the day as "momo panda"...i look forward to more of your input here.

[Sparky]

Today: October 23, 2012
Index: 34/100
Target: March 7, 2014
T- 500 days and counting

No change to the index, but we're down to 500 days so I guess this is something of a milestone. I think my comments from a month ago (Post #39) remain intact, i.e. we continue in this "false stability" until after the election.

Key things to watch after the election, associated with the fiscal cliff:

1) The debt ceiling is at $16.4T, with current debt at $16.2T. With the ceiling likely to be approached in mid-December, expect debate to begin a week after the election, after the euphoria/exhaustion dies down. Of course, the ceiling will be raised after much hand-wringing, in time for Christmas.
2) The payroll tax deduction expires January 1st. If it is not extended, it's the equivalent of a 2% pay cut to all workers. Surprisingly, both parties are saying they are going to let this expire. After all, it was really enacted in the first place in order to get as many congressmen reelected as possible. After November 6, that motivation goes away. If so, this becomes real to people when they start receiving their pay checks in January.
3) Bush tax cuts expire January 1. Expect some half-assed temporary extension.
4) The auto-cuts (from the failed sequestration) are scheduled to begin January 1. Expect another half-assed extension, perhaps accompanied by some token cut of no real substance.
5) Alternative Minimum Tax scheduled to impact tens of millions of Americans if the stop gap measure of temporarily indexing the limit to inflation isn't repeated. It will be. Expect another stop-gap measure.

So expect a period of angst from mid-November until mid-December as all the faux "debate" over these fiscal issues gets heated up, then false relief from the wave of temporary extensions that will be put in place for January 1. There will probably be another shaky period following the inauguration with "talk" of austerity (but no action), particularly if the payroll tax is increased and workers start seeing it in their paychecks by then, followed by more tranquility through the summer until the FY14 budget talks start up. At that point it will be hard to continue side-stepping the perpetual extensions, and things will really get heated. This will probably deteriorate into some type of crisis mode leading all the way into the March 2014 doom date, possibly exacerbated by involvement in war by that time.

No need for fear or panic, my friends. This is about awareness.

[Sparky]

1) Food = 3. Still surprisingly cheap, but bumping up due to smaller size deception.
2) Water = 3.
3) Gasoline = 6. Bumped up as gas reaches $4. Still no shortages though.
4) Heating Fuel= 5. Bumped. Low NatGas offsets high oil price.
5) Other Supplies = 2.
6) Banking system = 3. Bumped for quasi-Greek default. But there's still no real difficulty getting at your account, or FRNs out of an ATM.
7) Revolving credit = 2.
8 ) Non-revolving credit = 2.
9) Paper investments = 2.
10) Housing = 5.
11) Public demonstrations = 3. Bumped this to acknowledge activity abroad, which could portend the U.S. future.
12) Violent crime = 3.
13) Property theft = 3.
14) Unemployment = 6.
15) Restriction of liberties = 4. Bumped. It's the mounting minor personal intrusions that are creeping in. Still preferable to much of the world though.
16) Restriction of firearms = 3.



I've made it a point that the SHTF Index is not predictive, and as such, there's no real changes yet. But with the election over, the artificial veneer to keep things looking stable will soon be removed. As stated earlier, there may be a 6-week flurry of hand-waving during the fiscal cliff debate, but there may not be real consequences until next summer's FY14 budget talks. We'll see. But I'll note that the victory by Obama ensures that their is no new wrinkle to alter the doom course that has been laid during the last 12 years of the BushBama administration.

Today: November 7, 2012
Index: 34/100
Target: March 7, 2014
T- 485 days and counting

[Sparky]

Happy new year! I started this thread almost a year ago, so I thought I'd provide an update going into 2013. First, I'll update the Doom Clock:

Today: January 1, 2013
Index: 34/100
Target: March 7, 2014
T- 430 days and counting

I started the Doom Clock in February and chose a date that was more than two years away, because I know that the system has a lot of “inertia”, so it’s like turning a ship. Sure enough, the government has been able to do a lot of hand-waving and printing to get through the election year and through the lame duck congress session.

As such, after reviewing the components of the SHTF Index, I really don’t see a change from the assessment in the previous post. Remember, it is not a prediction. Over the last year, we've edged up from 29 to 34. An Index of 50 would put us on the brink of TSHTF, and 75 would be all-out crisis mode. I estimated the 1970’s recession at a 39. (See Post #3).

Although the Index has remained fairly flat, we are seeing many of the pieces being moved into place heading into 2013. It may not turn soon, but at some point it could turn quickly. We are watching the dominoes being put into place. It looks like there will be some lame 60-day fiscal patch, which will expire right as the debt ceiling will need to be raised, so we will be going through yet another fiscal cliff two months hence. They will, of course, come to yet another "solution". But as I said in previous posts, this will merely set up the real showdown which is the FY14 budget. This is consistent with the timing of my SHTF target date, as I expect months of wrangling leading up to the doom date.

So I think 2013 is going to be a wild ride as the stage is being set. I think we are entering a 15-month period where for the first time, the risk of SHTF could conceivably play out. It's anyone's guess as to the actual severity. My guess is that all of the fiscal volatility could be accompanied by some other significant event, e.g. another harsh drought in the heartland, an earthquake, more gun-related drama, a paralyzing winter, breakout of war, etc. It's a combination like that which could support an environment for a more serious doom scenario. The lesser scenario would simply be an extended period of our current wallowing.

So let's watch with awareness, and not fear, as the drama unfolds.

[Sparky]

I'm making a small adjustment to Item #16, "Restriction to Firearms and Ammunition". I've been hesitant to do this because there have not been any new gun controls put in place, just a lot of talk and proposals. However, what's happened is that there has actually been a significant and prolonged restriction in availability due to market forces on anticipation of changes. This has persisted long enough for me to bump this item from a 3 to a 4. It will warrant a further bump if any new controls actually get put into place, or if shortages do not abate.

There are other items on the list that are under watch for a change soon, but no persistent impact as yet.

1) Food = 3.
2) Water = 3.
3) Gasoline = 6.
4) Heating Fuel= 5.
5) Other Supplies = 2.
6) Banking system = 3.
7) Revolving credit = 2.
8 ) Non-revolving credit = 2.
9) Paper investments = 2.
10) Housing = 5.
11) Public demonstrations = 3.
12) Violent crime = 3.
13) Property theft = 3.
14) Unemployment = 6.
15) Restriction of liberties = 4.
16) Restriction of firearms and ammo = 4. (+1)

In other news, the $16.4T debt ceiling was "suspended" today to allow another $450B in borrowing. So this can gets kicked until about the August time frame, which in my previous post is when the FY14 budget debates will begin, leading to what I expect to be a noticeable ramp in angst. So the next item on the dock is the sequestration issue, with a "deadline" in mid-March. Expect a half-assed resolution which also kicks that debate into the FY14 budget debate. The resurfacing of all these issues next fall will ignite the culmination of events leading to the March 2014 doom date. Or so it seem to me.

Today: February 4, 2013
Index: 35/100
Target: March 7, 2014
T- 396 days and counting

[Sparky]

I started the Doom Clock over a year ago, with a target date more than two years into the future, since I did not expect that doom was "3-6 months away". Well, today is exactly one year in advance of the target date.

Today: March 7, 2013
Index: 35/100
Target: March 7, 2014
T- 365 days and counting

I still think this is a reasonable date for all the reasons I've stated in this thread, but I've recently thought of another big one. The Affordable Health Care Act begins full implementation on January 1, 2014. By that date, all states must have established a competitive "health insurance marketplace" for individuals to compare and purchase health insurance policies, operated either by the state, or the federal option, or a combination of both. Call me cynical, but I won't be surprised if this doesn't get off to a smooth start.

[old steel]

Sparky, i'm going out on a limb here to say your Index will go out the window with events that cannot be foreseen or predicted which will catch everyone by total surprise and shock sometime this year.

Of course i have my reasons whacked out as they may be so lets just leave it at that for now.

[Sparky]

Sparky, i'm going out on a limb here to say your Index will go out the window with events that cannot be foreseen or predicted which will catch everyone by total surprise and shock sometime this year.

Of course i have my reasons whacked out as they may be so lets just leave it at that for now.

I'd be interested to hear more.

[Sparky]

Today: October 23, 2012
...
So expect a period of angst from mid-November until mid-December as all the faux "debate" over these fiscal issues gets heated up, then false relief from the wave of temporary extensions that will be put in place for January 1. There will probably be another shaky period following the inauguration with "talk" of austerity (but no action), particularly if the payroll tax is increased and workers start seeing it in their paychecks by then, followed by more tranquility through the summer until the FY14 budget talks start up. At that point it will be hard to continue side-stepping the perpetual extensions, and things will really get heated. This will probably deteriorate into some type of crisis mode leading all the way into the March 2014 doom date, possibly exacerbated by involvement in war by that time.
...

Just revisiting this from last fall. We are currently in the "tranquility through the summer" phase. As it turns out, the debt ceiling crisis avoidance measures that have just begun are expected to run out in roughly the October time frame, which is consistent with this idea of the real turmoil beginning next fall.

I don't think the SHTF Index has really changed much, but I can update the Doom Clock:

Today: May 23, 2013
SHTF Index: 35/100
Doom Target: March 7, 2014
T- 288 days and counting

[old steel]

Bring it, Sparky.

[Son-of-Liberty]

Just revisiting this from last fall. We are currently in the "tranquility through the summer" phase. As it turns out, the debt ceiling crisis avoidance measures that have just begun are expected to run out in roughly the October time frame, which is consistent with this idea of the real turmoil beginning next fall.

I don't think the SHTF Index has really changed much, but I can update the Doom Clock:

Today: May 23, 2013
SHTF Index: 35/100
Doom Target: March 7, 2014
T- 288 days and counting

I don't know,

I think the SHTF index might be creeping up. Gas just went up again where I live. I am getting reports of $1.289/L which I am pretty sure is record high for Alberta. Japan is having severe bond trouble. Hearing about gold defaults in Hong Cong and other places. Treasury tapping retirement funds to put off raising debt ceiling etc. There is more I just can't think of it all off the top of my head.

Maybe this stuff doesn't effect the Index but it does point to rapidly deteriorating conditions in the near future.

[Son-of-Liberty]

WTF is going on around here. Crude has been going down the last two days and gas is going up?

We are paying $4.74 US per US gallon.

Highest in Alberta is $1.349 somewhere in Calgary which is $4.96 US per gallon.

[Sparky]

I don't know,

I think the SHTF index might be creeping up. Gas just went up again where I live. I am getting reports of $1.289/L which I am pretty sure is record high for Alberta. Japan is having severe bond trouble. Hearing about gold defaults in Hong Cong and other places. Treasury tapping retirement funds to put off raising debt ceiling etc. There is more I just can't think of it all off the top of my head.

Maybe this stuff doesn't effect the Index but it does point to rapidly deteriorating conditions in the near future.

I hear ya, but these are all just signs, and not really the actual fallout. Gas is high, but still not as high as when the SHTF gas component was raised to 6. Japan's bonds look to be in trouble, but they are still a historically low 1%. We hear about more potential defaults than what has actually occurred. The treasury has tapped retirement funds before, with no negative outcome. Only when all these measures lead to negative outcomes will we really be experiencing substantial SHTF. This isn't a predictor, so much as a current measure. I'd agree that a predictor would look troublesome right now. But I still don't think we've even matched the 1970s yet.

[Jewboo]

What objective measures would you include in an index to monitor a general degradation to a SHTF scenario? It would be interesting to examine some fundamental components to track this, though it would be hard to keep objective...Maybe others have more suggestions:



http://i43.tower.com/images/mm109044648/tranquilizers-lawrence-clayton-book-cover-art.jpg

Hey Sparky:

I suggest you consider adding some type of component to objectively quantify and monitor the Percentage of Population Currently Sedated by legal prescription psychotropic drugs and/or official alcohol sales figures. No way of objectively measuring or quantifying the percentage of the population self-sedating with marijuana. I imagine SHTF would happen the very next day after these sedatives become unavailable.

[Sparky]

I've been thinking about bumping up the public demonstrations number, but not trying to react to small scale protests. But today's massive protest in Brazil is worthy of a bump.

Also edging closer to bumping up gun and ammo restrictions. The bill to tax ammo passed the California senate but has not been enacted. If enacted, it will warrant a bump here. Also on the watch list for a bump is violent crime, with some evidence of increasing urban violence heading into summer.

Banking and finance look precarious, but the money system moves along with most everyone able to cash checks, use ATMs, redeem paper investments, etc. So those components remain low. I am trying to think of whether to include municipal debt default (e.g. Detroit) in this list. The components really are supposed to reflect how individual citizens are impacted directly; a municipal default ultimately leads to impacts, e.g. violent crime, property theft, public protest, etc., so maybe that's where it will ultimately show up in this index.

1) Food = 3.
2) Water = 3.
3) Gasoline = 6.
4) Heating Fuel= 5.
5) Other Supplies = 2.
6) Banking system = 3.
7) Revolving credit = 2.
8 ) Non-revolving credit = 2.
9) Paper investments = 2.
10) Housing = 5.
11) Public demonstrations = 4. (+1)
12) Violent crime = 3.
13) Property theft = 3.
14) Unemployment = 6.
15) Restriction of liberties = 4.
16) Restriction of firearms and ammo = 4.

Another item of note is recent talk of Bernanke's term ending in January. Talk is that his replacement will be the current vice chair Janet Yellen, who is also a monetary dove and likely to continue the loose money policies. I could see this whole transition adding to uncertainty, leading up to my Doom Target Date.

Today: June 19, 2013
Index: 35/100
Target: March 7, 2014
T- 261 days and counting

[EE_]

T- 261 days + 6-8 months and counting
.....................

[Sparky]

German federal election, 22 September 2013. Appearance of order in Europe must be kept until then.

Many things coming up in the September through January time frame. FY14 budget will be debated at the same time that the debt ceiling debate must be resolved. Guesses for tapering on QE range from September through early 2014, while Bernanke plans his exit in January. All as we head into home heating season.

Today: August 4, 2013
Index: 35/100
Target: March 7, 2014
T- 215 days and counting

[Sparky]

German federal election, 22 September 2013. Appearance of order in Europe must be kept until then.

Many things coming up in the September through January time frame. FY14 budget will be debated at the same time that the debt ceiling debate must be resolved. Guesses for tapering on QE range from September through early 2014, while Bernanke plans his exit in January. All as we head into home heating season.

Today: August 4, 2013
Index: 35/100
Target: March 7, 2014
T- 215 days and counting

All of this now compounded by the entanglement in Syria. The president is not getting support. There might need to be another "event" in order for a strike to move forward. And it looks more and more like any action would not end quickly. Look for something in the next 30 days. The action/event could be military, political, or financial. But there needs to be a big distraction. And this is what would likely move the dial on the SHTF Index which, as expected, has been stable through the summer months. All these things brewing in the coming months still potentially point to a lot of fallout occurring late winter or early spring, consistent with the Doom Target Date set more than 18 months ago. You know how we say "It's always 6 months away"? Well, today the clock has finally reached the point where it's exactly 6 months away.

Today: September 7, 2013
Index: 35/100
Target: March 7, 2014
T- 181 days and counting

[Sparky]

Bumping property theft up by a point. I've been hearing anecdotes, but this seems to be a genuine trend rather than isolated. Anybody else noticing this?

Also on the verge of bumping public demonstrations. This had been increasing in other countries; let's see if there's more of this domestically regarding the recent government stalemate. There seems to be more cases of individual demonstrations.

Food, water, supplies are still readily available, and the paper banking/financial system is humming along. We know there's trouble under the hood, but this Index is for the more visible stuff that bubbles to the surface. Keeping an eye on this as we head toward our winter of discontent.

1) Food = 3.
2) Water = 3.
3) Gasoline = 6.
4) Heating Fuel= 5.
5) Other Supplies = 2.
6) Banking system = 3.
7) Revolving credit = 2.
8 ) Non-revolving credit = 2.
9) Paper investments = 2.
10) Housing = 5.
11) Public demonstrations = 4.
12) Violent crime = 3.
13) Property theft = 4. (+1)
14) Unemployment = 6.
15) Restriction of liberties = 4.
16) Restriction of firearms and ammo = 4.

Today: October 4, 2013
Index: 36/100
Target: March 7, 2014
T- 154 days and counting

[Sparky]

Interesting that the debt ceiling has been extended until Feb 7, exactly one month prior to the Doom Target Date. I imagine that at some point, the population will begin to put up more resistance to yet another round of debt/budget theatrics. Also, this will be taking place during the first quarter for new Fed Chief Janet Yellen, who will be trying to maintain public confidence and stability during the transition. Remember, paper money is all about faith and trust.

Today: October 19, 2013
Index: 36/100
Target: March 7, 2014
T- 139 days and counting

[mamboni]

I have a bad gut feeling about why corporations, congress and unions got a 1 year exemption from Obamacare. Me wonders if TPTB plan to take the system down some time before the end of 2014. Because I for one don't believe that corporations are in any financial condition to enact Obamacare without many imploding. I for one believe that the recent government shutdown impasse was entirely staged and wonder if there is a concerted effort now to undermine the US dollar.

[gunDriller]

No way of objectively measuring or quantifying the percentage of the population self-sedating with marijuana. I imagine SHTF would happen the very next day after these sedatives become unavailable.[/SIZE]

cost of land in Willits, CA, basically ground zero for Mendo Herb Inc.

was about $7K an acre in 2003, now is $100K+.


another metric - California taxes from Marijuana sales. currently about $100 Million a year (the taxes ... corresponds to 1.176 Billion sales MEASURED @ 8.5% sales tax rate.)

[Son-of-Liberty]

Do capital controls by Chase do anything to the index or are they not widespread enough to be of concern?

[Sparky]

Do capital controls by Chase do anything to the index or are they not widespread enough to be of concern?

Capital controls impact Index Item #6, Banking System. The reported problems in Greece and Cypress are why this is currently rated as a "3" rather than a 1. The Chase controls are a consideration. I think the current controls effect such a small fraction of people ($50,000 withdrawal limit per month?), that it should no yet resulted in an index bump. However, if we were to see a tightening of this amount, or if other banks started following suit, I think that would warrant a bump. I'm trying not to react to individual items until I see a trend, or if the individual item is of great magnitude. This is something to keep an eye on.

The Index is a measure of observed impact, and not a prediction. I think we all understand the underlying problems with the banking/credit/money system, yet it remains almost entirely intact. If this one goes as we suspect it might, I think it will be rapid. Other index components are more likely to increase gradually.

[Sparky]

I started this thread almost 2 years ago. Disregarding the "doom is always 6 months away" motto, I selected a doom target date of March 7, 2014. This was based on a number of things that I thought would converge around this time frame. Today is the first day of the target year.

More than 700 days have passed. The SHTF Index itself has not changed that much, increasing from 29 to 36 on a 100-point scale. This is not unexpected, because it is a measure of current conditions and not a prediction of future conditions. Though ominous signs are ahead, we remain relatively free to do what we want (with some restrictions), and we can still exchange FRNs for widely available food and water and supplies. The banks will still cash our checks, the ATMs will still spit FRNs at us, and they have not yet frozen or stolen our paper assets. Although there are structural problems, the surface will be made to look sound as long as possible.

I don't expect the doom target day will represent a bottom, but rather the more visible beginning of the end game, whatever that turns out to be. The hidden risks in the SHTF list that have been avoided will begin to be exposed more dramatically. The end game itself will take years to play out. Until now, the savvy preppers have had their way in obtaining whatever they need. Perhaps the doom target date represents the point at which there will emerge competition from a new wave of preppers who will begin to recognize risks in availability of supplies. The rest of us have had a nice head start.

Today: January 1, 2014
Index: 36/100
Target: March 7, 2014
T- 65 days and counting

[Dogman]

Time will tell, as always!

[Sparky]

1) Food = 3.
2) Water = 3.
3) Gasoline = 6.
4) Heating Fuel= 5.
5) Other Supplies = 2.
6) Banking system = 3.
7) Revolving credit = 3. (+1)
8 ) Non-revolving credit = 2.
9) Paper investments = 2.
10) Housing = 5.
11) Public demonstrations = 4.
12) Violent crime = 3.
13) Property theft = 4.
14) Unemployment = 6.
15) Restriction of liberties = 4.
16) Restriction of firearms and ammo = 4.

I think this large-scale credit card breech has broad significance. As such, I am bumping up "Availability of Revolving Credit." I know many people who have been impacted by this. This is changing some people's spending habits.

Only 49 days until the doom target date. I have a hunch that there will be some widespread late winter weather event that could be a factor. Maybe a large ice/snow storm that impacts many states, interfering with our transportation system for distribution of goods. Pure speculation on my part.

Today: January 17, 2014
Index: 37/100
Target: March 7, 2014
T- 49 days and counting

[mick silver]

thanks sparky for the update

[Sparky]

This thread started more than two years ago. The Doom Target Date is now exactly one month away. Let's see if any downward acceleration of conditions materializes by then.

Today: February 7, 2014
Index: 37/100
Target: March 7, 2014
T- 28 days and counting

[Sparky]

...
Only 49 days until the doom target date. I have a hunch that there will be some widespread late winter weather event that could be a factor. Maybe a large ice/snow storm that impacts many states, interfering with our transportation system for distribution of goods. Pure speculation on my part.
...


Let's see how this ice/snow storm affects the 100 million people along the eastern seaboard from Georgia to Maine over the next couple of days.

[Sparky]

It would be interesting if something big went down with the Ukraine situation on Friday...

Today: March 3, 2014
Index: 37/100
Target: March 7, 2014
T- 4 days and counting

[Neuro]

It would be interesting if something big went down with the Ukraine situation on Friday...

Today: March 3, 2014
Index: 37/100
Target: March 7, 2014
T- 4 days and counting
Friday doom is on. Fundamentalist Russian Orthodox terror attack?

[aeondaze]

Bump.

Sparky you may have miss timed the dates but I think it would be a great idea to keep updating (or adjusting) this index as some things seem to be gaining momentum, mostly gossip as of the moment I know, but its still as good an indicator as we've got.

[Sparky]

Bump.

Sparky you may have miss timed the dates but I think it would be a great idea to keep updating (or adjusting) this index as some things seem to be gaining momentum, mostly gossip as of the moment I know, but its still as good an indicator as we've got.

I will continue to update the index. But what I'm seeing is a number of things falling into place that may lead to a spike in the index, but many of the individual components have not actually changed. For instance, I see many things lining up to cause issues with food and water availability and price, or fuel, or the financial system. In particular, drought conditions in the west, financial investigations, and an astonishing war environment setting up across the Middle East. And yet the impact on availability and price of items remains small.

I considered making a small adjustment because prices have bumped for some food types, and water availability has been an issue regionally. But for the most part, food and water remain accessible. I have come to believe that there will be large regional factor in whatever SHTF lies ahead. Housing is an example: Many parts of the country have a rejuvenated housing boom with house prices and rents becoming unaffordable, while other regions continue to have an excess of inventory and floundering prices.

For comparison, the current SHTF Index (37) is still a bit below that at the height of the 1970s recession (39); see Post #3 of this thread for details. As I said, we may be on the verge of a flare up in many of these components, but they have remained under control. Keep in mind that this Index is not meant to be predictive, but rather a yardstick of actual current conditions. The items followed by (*) I think are ripe for a bump, but are not quite there yet.

1) Food = 3. (*) Bump would require extension of meat price trend to more products
2) Water = 3. (*) Bump would require regional shortages to spread.
3) Gasoline = 6. (*) Bump would require persistent $4+ nationally, w/temporary shortages
4) Heating Fuel= 5. (*) Bump would require higher NG prices
5) Other Supplies = 2.
6) Banking system = 3.
7) Revolving credit = 3.
8 ) Non-revolving credit = 2.
9) Paper investments = 2.
10) Housing = 5.
11) Public demonstrations = 4.
12) Violent crime = 3.
13) Property theft = 4.
14) Unemployment = 6.
15) Restriction of liberties = 4.
16) Restriction of firearms and ammo = 4.

Index: 37/100 [37%]

A final note: In spite of conditions, the availability of tangibles (food, water, gas, supplies) and financial instruments (FRNs, credit, paper asset convertibility) remains remarkably high. This would have to change in order to see a dramatic change in the Index.

[Hitch]

Index: 37/100 [37%]

A final note: In spite of conditions, the availability of tangibles (food, water, gas, supplies) and financial instruments (FRNs, credit, paper asset convertibility) remains remarkably high. This would have to change in order to see a dramatic change in the Index.

Sparky, quick question and somewhere in this thread you may have answered it...but currently at 37/100 index. 37%. What percentage are we looking at for triggering the collapse, ie when the music stops?

[old steel]

I know, i'm not Sparky, so it's jmo but when the masses of Joe's and Jane's wake up to the events occurring around them, seemingly out of the blue, and people in mass start raiding the local supermarkets cleaning them out, you will know the music has stopped.

It's only when the collapse goes "Out of Control" that you will actually notice.

There will be no need to update the index then.

[Sparky]

I know, i'm not Sparky, so it's jmo but when the masses of Joe's and Jane's wake up to the events occurring around them, seemingly out of the blue, and people in mass start raiding the local supermarkets cleaning them out, you will know the music has stopped.

It's only when the collapse goes "Out of Control" that you will actually notice.

There will be no need to update the index then.

Yes, I think what you say is generally true, old steel. That's what I mean about it not being a predictive index. We discuss a lot here about how bad it will be. This is just a measure of that. In my original post, I say that we start to approach some legitimate level of SHTF at about 50. Full-blown SHTF would be at 75. At our current value of 37, we're just shy of the 1970's recession. I was a youngster during that, and I do remember it being a bit more difficult than where we are currently, so this index seems to be a reasonable measure. I'm guessing we'll surpass that, but I don't think we have as of yet.

But if all this plays out, I will need to update the index for historical purposes. :)