Best economic guesses for the next 3 months?

[Gaillo]

OK, forum seers, revelators, crystal ball gazers, and astute financial minds...
Stay out of this one - amateurs only! ;D

Just kidding... any and ALL guesses welcome.

I'm personally seeing 4 possibilities in the next 3 months:

Scenario 1: Collapse of the Euro, followed by a few months of "Dollar to da moon", followed by dollar crash and REAL money to da moon. This scenario is BRIEFLY deflationary for the U.S.

Scenario 2: Same as above, but dollar nosedives almost immediately after the Euro

Scenario 3: Bernanke and his butt-buddies attempt to bail out the Euro using U.S. debt, causing a prolonged slow grinding plane crash and steadily rising metal/commodity prices.

Scenario 4: War breaks out with Iran... all bets off.

What say ye all?

[osoab]

Other.

Martians arrive and bailout Earth.

[Gaillo]

Other.

Martians arrive and bailout Earth.

With antimatter weapons? ;D

[chad]

that i'll be broke form buying stoves and more ag.

[solid]

that i'll be broke form buying stoves and more ag.

Broke buying stoves? I've been spending $45 a quart, a quart, of paint.

I just hope I can get this painting done before the dollar collapses into oblivion.

[Gaillo]

that i'll be broke from buying stoves and more ag.

Same here... except with me, it's tools, food, and Ag (in that order!) ;)

[Gaillo]

Broke buying stoves? I've been spending $45 a quart, a quart, of paint.

I just hope I can get this painting done before the dollar collapses into oblivion.

Painting the water-RV? ;)

[solid]

Painting the water-RV? ;)

Yup, nonskid paint so the decks are not so slippery. Good stuff, but expensive. Coats on like liquid rubber. Boats are damn expensive, burned through a quart today on just a small section.

[LuckyStrike]

3 months is way to short of a time horizon IMO to do any sort of accurate predicting. And I don't see any of those scenarios within that time frame.

Within 3 months I think it will be more of the same, Euro trouble so flight to perceived safety in USD, which will put some cieling on PM's until something occurs to make it change.

[JohnQPublic]

3 months is way to short of a time horizon IMO to do any sort of accurate predicting. And I don't see any of those scenarios within that time frame.

Within 3 months I think it will be more of the same, Euro trouble so flight to perceived safety in USD, which will put some cieling on PM's until something occurs to make it change.

Generally I agree with you, except that some people were forecasting a big euro default by (and I presume within) March. This or a strike on Iran (as Gaillo already outlined) would change things. Other than that surprises always show up.

[LuckyStrike]

Generally I agree with you, except that some people were forecasting a big euro default by (and I presume within) March. This or a strike on Iran (as Gaillo already outlined) would change things. Other than that surprises always show up.

I agree but, honestly I would've thought that the poop would've hit the fan years ago. When the housing bubble burst and the Dow was in freefall I though that was it, that things would just decline from there. Back when QE2 ended things in the markets got very volatile and I thought that might be it too. I can't believe there haven't been more false flags and certainly no major false flags here sine 9/11. I can't believe the economy hasn't imploded, that the comex hasn't imploded, that we haven't gone to all out war with Iran..... the list goes on.

I would've bet someone good money 5 years ago that these things would happen in the next 5 years. I'd probably bet now that they will happen in the next 5 but 5 years and 3 months is a big difference.

[osoab]

With antimatter weapons? ;D


I guess Martian fiat could be considered an antimatter weapon.

[Rubberchicken]

sideways, no waves election , 1 yr different opinion

[Shami-Amourae]

I say we should expect a slow grind, but expect the unexpected for anytime. Making timetables only makes you look stupid when you get it wrong, like most people do. Unless your name is James Dines, you can't predict the future.

[JJ.G0ldD0t]

I go with #2- in the event that Greece does not get another bailout- That's what I see happening.

'course, bailouts are what have been keeping this whole thing going, so why should this time be any different.

IF Greece DOES go to hell, you got no more than a couple weeks MAX to get your money outta the system. (the way I recon it)

[PlatinumBlonde]

None of the above really. I figure they'll run the presses doubletime at the Treasury and bring on hyperinflation before any of the other stuff ever happens..

[EE_]

I predict, if Romney gets the nomination, many Americans will no longer pay any attention to politics/politicians and will write them all off as corrupt criminals. America will be finished.

[Neuro]

This is a hard one. I am leaning towards a combo of 2 and 4 or 3 and 4... I don't think a Euro collapse would result in a stronger dollar this time. If the Euro does collapse, the dollar will come down with it, the bombing/invasion of Iran will be done to prop up the dollar, apart from the obvious Zionist agenda of greater USrael...

[Buddha]

Like Lucky said, 3 months is way too short of a time line. I don't see any of the polls options happening, yet they still could. People say that the Euro will collapse in March, but it has been collapsing for a while now. We are in it, some collapses don't happen in periods of days or weeks, but months and years.

Like a star going supernova, or fading to a white dwarf.

[JJ.G0ldD0t]

here's what I think the real wildcard here is this:

When it's known among the elite that there will be no more bailouts - Greece goes down, and then all the arab sheiks- all the big money in the world starts running US banks - swapping dollars for ANYTHING but. Bankruns by big money= Bank holiday=shtf

[palani]

I'd as soon go to Texas and ask a rancher how many cattle he has as speculate on what the government plans to do with THEIR economy.

When my mother was young she helped my grandfather deliver a load of cows to Chicago. They stood there chuckling while watching a buyer eye up several head of cattle. He spotted them and said he had to figure the yield precisely so that he could pay more than the next buyer. After all, wouldn't it be a sin it he got stuck for more than they were worth?

[General of Darkness]

I'm thinking like this.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kCpjgl2baLs

[Blink]

I have to agree with LuckyStrike, I would've thought this show was over years ago. When it didn't and the imaginary presses went to work, all bets off. Now, I would safely predict for the next three months, more lies, more speeches from Roomey and Gimprich, more saber rattling about Iran (and possibly whatever country is next on the list), pumping up the fear with Russia and China (lol) and thats about it. Maybe, higher prices on basics, more lies and wait, more lies. When the ball drops, it'll be when we least expect it........... Predict to occupy the mind, but, you better be prepping and preparing, waiting for this anvil to drop.

[Canadian-guerilla]

Scenario 4 - War with Iran, Doooooooooom

[vacuum]

War with Iran in Fall of 2012.

[JJ.G0ldD0t]

Whatever:


2002 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axis_of_evil) - tptb called Iran out and fired up the propaganda machine against them.

2004 (http://globalresearch.ca/articles/CLA410A.html)
2005 (http://www.commondreams.org/views05/0620-31.htm)
2006 (http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1535817,00.html)
2007 (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/nov/03/iran-nuclear-ambitions-secret-war)
2008 (http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/news-desk/2008/03/11/6-signs-the-us-may-be-headed-for-war-in-iran)
2009 (http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,631799,00.html)
2010 (http://www.forbes.com/2010/06/21/iran-nuclear-israel-war-opinions-reza-kahlili.html)
2011 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/05/us-iran-coldwar-idUSTRE7B41GC20111205)

The 2011 article calls this a cold war.

I tend to agree. Iran does not bother me.

Derivitaves games. Hedge fund thie... uhh I mean Managers. Sovereign debt crises. Currency Devaluations.

These are the things that have us by the balls.

[Libertytree]

Things will remain calm on the surface throughout this election cycle, they always have and this is no exception. The only exception I can even remotely ponder on is a FF just prior to the 2012 election, that'd be a game changer. Other than that instance, six months into the next/same admin I think things will devolve rather quickly with one crisis after another, political, economic and militarily, an over whelming set of circumstances/crisis that will give us everything and more than we've all ever imagined.