Discussion of daily PM price moves

[Sparky]

Rather than generating a new thread every time there's a leap or a plunge in PM prices, let's try keeping discussion of short term price movements here.

As you can see, we're starting this thread with a plunge, presumably associated with the release of the Fed meeting minutes, which was greeted with a $35 drop in gold.

[gunDriller]

in Ebonics terms ... Gold be Down.

[madfranks]

$1650 gold is still a pretty high number. Yes, lower than the $1900 we saw last year, but hey, with the Federal Reserve announcing a 33% target devaluation of the dollar over the next few decades, we'll make it up sooner or later.

[LuckyStrike]

It was either last week or the week before when Shalom made a speech kind of hinting about no easing, PM's went down. Then he made a speech where he hinted that easing would be needed, and PM's went up. But the bottom line is this we have been in a zero interest rate environment for 5 years, we all know the score, when you have ZIRP for this long you never leave. Just look at Japan they have had 2 lost decades now, everything used to be made in Japan, now it is all made in China. Long term the US is screwed and while short term the problems in Europe drive capital to perceived safety it creates a PM buying opportunity when you consider what is actually a safe haven.

In short, let the masses run to their perceived life rafts, but when they find out those lift rafts are laden with explosives, we will be sailing off in our golden ships.

[Sparky]

Yes, Lucky, I think we all agree that any short term hits are temporary, whether it be $1650, $1550, or $1450. The fundamentals have not changed.

[Sparky]

$1624! I'm starting a new thread!

LOL, and another at $1612!

These big plunges are actually preferable to the grinding. Some bottom price needs to be reached in order to attract the next wave of buying, so have at it.

[Neuro]

It's almost May....

I doubt we get a summer doldrums this year! On the other hand I thought we would get one last summer, but gold was zooming in the summer. Maybe Martin Armstrong is right about gold going down to $1200-1250? What would that do to silver? $20? Less even? Probably a good idea to buy now! ;D

Sorry for the schizo post

[madfranks]

$50 silver sure seems far away now...

[sunnyandseventy]

$50 silver sure seems far away now...

I forgot. This is all Ponce and Art's fault.

[LuckyStrike]

$50 silver sure seems far away now...

It's only a QE3 away.

[Neuro]

It's only a QE3 away.

That is far away! London Fucking Rothschild Marathon Terror Illuminati Olympics away...

[gunDriller]

Europe is QUIVERING WITH FEAR.

about Spain etc.

i expect Un-Saint Ben will Ride to The Rescue.

or should i call it the Un-Dream Team Tim & Ben, the Zionic Bankster Warriors.

overall goal is to lock EU nations into a Forever of Debt. Perpetual Indebtedness, followed by fire sales on critical assets, to be owned/ acquired by Zio-compliant parties.


God Bless the Rebellious, countries like Iceland & people like Helen Thomas. and even Ponce.


back to the subject of price moves.

i think people will be fleeing for "dollar safety" this next week ... i got a fresh credit card (0% interest for 15 months, i'm about to call the credit card co. to grill them over the fine print for an hour) to help me load up.

i expect gold below $1600 and silver below $31 - at some times during the next week.

i expect more panic than that during 2012, but there's no need to speculate.


good time to load up on critical assets like blue tarps. :) well, when they're on sale for $1.49.

[gunDriller]

it's a good day if you like Waterfalls.

on the price charts that is.

http://www.kitco.com/images/live/nysilver.gif

http://www.kitco.com/images/live/nygold.gif


and they're not even waiting till 7 AM.

looks like the "strong dollar policy" manipulators got a full weekend's rest, AND a good night's sleep, and woke up Monday morning Ready to Raid.

[mamboni]

Gold and silver have been held in a remarkably tight trading range for months now. This AM we are virtually exactly in the same damn place moving sideways. This is obvious management of price by the FED. Well Shalom is trapped like a rat. Only massive shorting by his minions at JPM/GS have kept a lid on the metals. We are in a prolonged ZIRP and the FED has been buying 80% of US debt issuance for months. There is no improvement in the economy or asset prices. In time (weeks or months?) gold and silver are going to explode higher - they are long overdue.

[Sparky]

Probably months, mamboni. But you're right, it's coming. Here are the previous "launching pad" months over the last decade:

Starting in:
July 2003, up 26% in 6 months
July 2005, up 74% in 10 months
August 2007, up 58% in 7 months
October 2008, up 47% in 4 months
July 2009, up 35% in 5 months
August 2010, up 65% in 13 months

The launch points have been been contained in the July-October window, with 5 of 6 occurring in July/August. We're now 9 months into a healthy consolidation following a near-manic blast to $1900, which I think narrowly averted bubble territory. Exactly what the doctor ordered (excuse the pun). It seems to be setting up nicely to emerge in the same window again in 2012. So if history is any guide, we have 2-3 more months of consolidation to go.

[gunDriller]

i want another buying opportunity, so -

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/69/Delta_IV_Medium_Rocket_DSCS.jpg/270px-Delta_IV_Medium_Rocket_DSCS.jpg

[mamboni]

Probably months, mamboni. But you're right, it's coming. Here are the previous "launching pad" months over the last decade:

Starting in:
July 2003, up 26% in 6 months
July 2005, up 74% in 10 months
August 2007, up 58% in 7 months
October 2008, up 47% in 4 months
July 2009, up 35% in 5 months
August 2010, up 65% in 13 months

The launch points have been been contained in the July-October window, with 5 of 6 occurring in July/August. We're now 9 months into a healthy consolidation following a near-manic blast to $1900, which I think narrowly averted bubble territory. Exactly what the doctor ordered (excuse the pun). It seems to be setting up nicely to emerge in the same window again in 2012. So if history is any guide, we have 2-3 more months of consolidation to go.

Gold has been forming a massive pennant for months, the apex of which points to August as the time of the price rocket launch. Silver may lead gold. We shall see. I am very optimistic and see a price explosion as inevitable.

[gunDriller]

think today (May 2) they'll go for $30 Silver - or will try to take it through $30 down to $29.50 or $29 ?

[Sparky]

Gold has been forming a massive pennant for months, the apex of which points to August as the time of the price rocket launch. Silver may lead gold. We shall see. I am very optimistic and see a price explosion as inevitable.

Yes, definitely forming a pennant, with the current range pinched down to $1600-$1750 and closing. Extending it forward, August does look like a good guess.

2742

[Sparky]

Shaved off 22 bucks this morning, on cue with this discussion.

[madfranks]

Silver taking a good beat too, maybe sub-30 today? Right now $30.09.

[Sparky]

The two high volume selling days that stand out on the charts are the $1540 low on September 26 and the $1560 low on December 15. So we may have to endure price falls into that range before the tide turns. I'm not predicting those prices will get reached, but I'm saying those prices are would be consistent with completion of this year-long consolidation. They would also represent a break outside the current pennant (see discussion above); the pennant implies a bottom in the $1580-$1620 range.

[gunDriller]

i wonder - does the timing of the CFTC reports affect the timing of the Manipulators' raids on the Precious Metal markets ?

the report that comes out tomorrow Friday May 4, will have the market data for close of business Tuesday May 2.

so any short positions that were added today, Thursday, May 3, won't show up until next Friday May 11, when the CFTC sends out their regular Commitment of Trader (CoT) reports.


of course, if a short position added today is closed out tomorrow Friday or Monday May 7, or Tuesday May 8 - i don't think it shows up on the reports created by the CFTC next week.

i just have to wonder if the Manipulators play some "sneaky shit" to manipulate the markets 'below the radar' - staying off the CoT report that comes out Friday May 11 by using HFT (high frequency trading) and collusive behavior (withholding buy orders till later in the day Tuesday, so that the prices plummet).

the sequence of events then is -

* add naked shorts after close of business Tuesday.
* do sneaky sh!t to close out short positions before next Tuesday's CoT report.

"No Harm, No Foul" - the Manipulators can manipulate the Hell out of the market, and, if they do their manipulation "right", you can't tell from looking at the CoT report. the CFTC continues with their "what, me worry ?" BS.

i'm thinking what we see in the CoT report is Just the Tip of the Iceberg.



the report that i'm talking about is here -

http://www.cftc.gov/marketreports/commitmentsoftraders/index.htm

/\ for Tuesday April 24.

Harvey Organ dissects the CoT report in his Saturday April 28 market wrap-up -

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2012_04_22_archive.html


i'm thinking if the CFTC really wanted to 'tighten up the ship', they would consider issuing a CoT report EVERY DAY.

Harvey Organ is a pharmacist who just happens to be one of the best writers on the planet when it comes to dissecting the market activity. i.e. he's working in his spare time.

personally i think the CFTC has the man-power to do a CoT report for every trading day.

maybe they do do a CoT report every day - but only share it with the public once a week, with a 10 day delay.

[madfranks]

The two high volume selling days that stand out on the charts are the $1540 low on September 26 and the $1560 low on December 15. So we may have to endure price falls into that range before the tide turns. I'm not predicting those prices will get reached, but I'm saying those prices are would be consistent with completion of this year-long consolidation. They would also represent a break outside the current pennant (see discussion above); the pennant implies a bottom in the $1580-$1620 range.

Well we're right in the middle of it now. $1600 gold? And now silver crashed below $30, flirting with $29! If one has the dry powder, it looks like a good time to buy to me!

[Sparky]

This is the first check point for an incremental buy. It's only May, so $1560 and $1540 are still on the table, so don't use ALL of your dry powder today!

[LuckyStrike]

Well we're right in the middle of it now. $1600 gold? And now silver crashed below $30, flirting with $29! If one has the dry powder, it looks like a good time to buy to me!

I should have at least some, if history is any guide if/when it hits 26 it repels upwards like a magnet. Either way the physical I buy won't be sold. I may dip back into USLV or AGQ though if it looks to be bottoming.

[Sparky]

We were scraping along the bottom of the pennant, then it appears someone rang the PM bell at 10 AM EDT. PM equities have lifted 4% in 2 hours. Funny how quickly these turns happen when a big player decides to make a move. Let's see it any other players follow suit.

[gunDriller]

think the Scum-bags (JPMorgue & HSBC & the Banksters) are preparing for another "Run for the Border" ?

based on where prices are today, another raid overnight or at the usual time (10 AM Eastern) could easily knock silver down 3+%, to $28.

yesterday my targets were silver $28.80 and gold $1580. almost made it but not quite.


now i'm thinking silver $28 & gold $1580 are good targets for Friday morning festivities.

[steyr_m]

now i'm thinking silver $28 & gold $1580 are good targets for Friday morning festivities.

If I have the paper; if there is any drop in PM for a couple days, I buy. I don't look for a target. I've been disappointed before.

[gunDriller]

so, what happens next ?

in the weekend webcasts i'm hearing talk about gold breaking into the $1550/$1520 range.

i have the impression that China was quite happy buying at $1610, and had a floor there where they were buying steadily.

[Neuro]

so, what happens next ?

in the weekend webcasts i'm hearing talk about gold breaking into the $1550/$1520 range.

i have the impression that China was quite happy buying at $1610, and had a floor there where they were buying steadily.
I think they are even happier buying at $1520 if it comes to that...

[gunDriller]

I think they are even happier buying at $1520 if it comes to that...

i'm surprised they don't step up the buying more when the price drops come, given that they're sitting on $Trillions in US $.

it would be logical to do that, if their goal is to maximize their PM holdings.


but it would quickly result in out-of-stock conditions just about everywhere.

it's hard to tell from the pieces of the puzzle that are visible from the outside, but it's as if they're buying a set amount each month.


it i had their budget for PM's, with a goal of maximizing holdings in terms of gold & silver weight, there would be no PM's left for sale - at these prices.

so it looks like China & other large sovereign buyers are showing some restraint. i wonder if they have been instructed to show restraint by the US government, as part of the US "strong dollar policy".

[Sparky]

i'm surprised they don't step up the buying more when the price drops come, given that they're sitting on $Trillions in US $.
...


Cuz if you step up your buying when the price drops from $1900 to $1750 to $1700 to $1650, you run out of buying power when the price is at $1620 and $1580 and $1540. At what price do you "step it up"? We always tend to think that the current low is the lowest low. Most of the time it's not.

It's the biggest mistake for those itching to buy. I still make this mistake all the time, sorry to say.

[gunDriller]

Cuz if you step up your buying when the price drops from $1900 to $1750 to $1700 to $1650, you run out of buying power when the price is at $1620 and $1580 and $1540. At what price do you "step it up"? We always tend to think that the current low is the lowest low. Most of the time it's not.

It's the biggest mistake for those itching to buy. I still make this mistake all the time, sorry to say.

understood. for those of us mortals with finite bank accounts.

but the Sovereign wealth funds have $100's of Billions - in some cases $Trillions. e.g. Chinese Central Bank - had $3 Trillion, unloaded some of it.

1 year's production, 2400 tons of gold, 30,000 ounces per ton, 72 Million Ounces - $115 Billion @ $1600 an ounce. China knows that the US $ is devaluing. They don't want to be caught holding worthless fiat. They're not going to save it to be spent in 2020.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/china-proposes-cut-two-thirds-its-3-trillion-usd-holdings

if China bought each month's production - 200 tons - heck, that's 'just' $9.6 Billion @ $1600 an ounce.


and they're competing with India, Saudi Arabia, etc. i'm just surprised these countries don't compete more to grab the available gold.

[Sparky]

If they convert all their U.S. denominated assets to gold, they won't be able to hold the U.S. hostage any more.

[Eyebone]

If they convert all their U.S. denominated assets to gold, they won't be able to hold the U.S. hostage any more."

'They' have to keep a large amount of fiat, because 'WE' are their largest/biggest trading partner.

No one else will buy their crap in the quantity necessary to prop up their economy.

[Neuro]

The more gold the Chinese buys, the less valuable will their dollar holdings be...

[horseshoe3]

If they convert all their U.S. denominated assets to gold, they won't be able to hold the U.S. hostage any more.

I'll bet they could buy out the gold market and still have enough left to hold us hostage.

[Sparky]

This is the first check point for an incremental buy. It's only May, so $1560 and $1540 are still on the table, so don't use ALL of your dry powder today!

Low this morning down at $1554, so we've broken into this lower range. Seems seasonally too early to be establishing a bottom, so I'm guessing we're going to get to that $1540.

[mamboni]

I'll bet they could buy out the gold market and still have enough left to hold us hostage.

You're right. Total marketable gold bullion is a tiny fraction of China's FOREX, over $2 trillions. The Chinese are history's greatest long term strategists - they know exactly what they are doing vis-a-vis balancing gold versus dollar holdings. My prediction is that within two years, China will shock the world and announce a fully convertable remnibi world reserve currency partly backed by gold, and perhaps silver. But they will not deliver the coup de grace until the US dollar is well near finished as world reserve currency.

[steyr_m]

China will shock the world and announce a fully convertable remnibi world reserve currency partly backed by gold, and perhaps silver.

I'm going to have to agree. I thought I read someplace, within the last couple days, that Russia is on the way for a gold backed ruble.

If China [and the rest of the BRICS nations] survive WW3 a gold/silver backed ruble/remnibi will force the hands of the other Western nations to have PM backed currencies too.

[Sparky]

Curious, what makes us think China is not stepping up their buying as prices drop?

http://marginalevolution.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/gold-holdings.bmp (http://marginalevolution.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/gold-holdings.bmp)

[Sparky]

Up $44 at one point today. The silence here is deafening. We must be a superstitious bunch. ;)

[mamboni]

Gold is moving from west to east. The western world is in decline and the east is in the ascendency. For any period of history, if you want to know where the center of power and influence is, simply locate the largest gold holdings.

[Neuro]

Gold is moving from west to east. The western world is in decline and the east is in the ascendency. For any period of history, if you want to know where the center of power and influence is, simply locate the largest gold holdings.

I agree, but the official holdings of the west is suspect at best. I think much of supposed western central bank gold is in the hands of people associated with the central banks! A pandoras box indeed!

[mamboni]

I agree, but the official holdings of the west is suspect at best. I think much of supposed western central bank gold is in the hands of people associated with the central banks! A pandoras box indeed!

Knowing how these sheenies operate, I have no doubt that all of the western central banks' gold reserves have been stolen through artifice (i.e. leasing). Note that most of Germany's gold is held abroad. Good luck getting that gold back to the mother country. I'll guarantee that it has been hypothecated 100-times over.

[Neuro]

Knowing how these sheenies operate, I have no doubt that all of the western central banks' gold reserves have been stolen through artifice (i.e. leasing). Note that most of Germany's gold is held abroad. Good luck getting that gold back to the mother country. I'll guarantee that it has been hypothecated 100-times over.

Yes Fort Knox is filled up with IOU's (leasing agreements), referring to another IOU, referring to an IOU guaranteed by a bankrupt entity! Perhaps some gold painted tungsten bars too for window dressing in the highly unlikely scenario a congressman would manage to wolfram through an audit...

[mamboni]

James Rickards Forecasts $7,000 Per Ounce Gold as if it is a fait d'accompli. In passing, he says that the US has it's 20,000 tons of gold under the FED Bank in NYC; only the title to said gold has changed over the years. Hmm, are you listening Germany?


http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=LpeFv8eNLIE

[gunDriller]

so, what do you guys think is going on today, Tuesday May 29 ?

from our metals calendar, it is last trading day for some metals & derivative products -
May 24 Comex June gold options expiry
May 24 Comex June copper options expiry
May 26 Comex June miNY gold futures last trading day
May 29 Comex May silver futures last trading day
May 29 Comex May copper futures last trading day
May 29 Comex June E-mini copper futures last trading day
May 29 Comex June miNY gold futures last trading day
May 31 Comex June gold futures first notice day
May 31 Comex June copper futures first notice day
May 31 Nymex June palladium futures first notice day

i think it's another "old fashioned raid".

http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/other_lof.htm

Last week's Tuesday May 22 Commitment of Traders report showed a huge increase in shorts, possibly related to the raid on Wednesday May 16.

I think what they try to do with the price drops is to close out old shorts. This then frees them up to try to drive the price down more, with new shorts.

On May 16 the raid was at about 2 PM Eastern. A week later, it was a classic 10 AM raid. Today, it was a Noon raid.


I think they're setting up for another push towards $26 territory later this week. If I had to pick a day I would say Wednesday, but it's not that predictable. The last 2 weeks the raids occurred when stocks were getting hammered; today stocks are up 1% in the US, and precious metals are still getting hammered.

I don't see ANY news that would make the dollar stronger.

[Sparky]

Gold/Silver up $70/$1.00 at one point today. Gold sliced through $1600 like a warm knife through butter. Price spike accompanied by high volume.

W00t.

[StreetsOfGold]

Did I just see a major PLUNGE?

..... UP?

I remember when the discussion of 100 dollar a day moves (in gold) would become common. Looks like those days are fast coming

[steyr_m]

I remember when the discussion of 100 dollar a day moves (in gold) would become common. Looks like those days are fast coming

Yeah that was happening about a year and a couple months+ and the PTB brought the hammer down and suppressed the prices. This won't last long. They are scheming right now on how to get those prices back down.

[gunDriller]

Yeah that was happening about a year and a couple months+ and the PTB brought the hammer down and suppressed the prices. This won't last long. They are scheming right now on how to get those prices back down.

i think they played most of their cards.

they can tighten up margin requirements - which they just loosened.

there was an aggressive little uptick 15 minutes before the market closed for the weekend. NEVER seen that before. usually the market plateau's after 4 PM Eastern, this would have been at 5 PM Eastern on Friday. That is a sign of hounds eager to get to the meat, i.e. a sign of Gold Longs.

[Neuro]

i think they played most of their cards.

they can tighten up margin requirements - which they just loosened.

there was an aggressive little uptick 15 minutes before the market closed for the weekend. NEVER seen that before. usually the market plateau's after 4 PM Eastern, this would have been at 5 PM Eastern on Friday. That is a sign of hounds eager to get to the meat, i.e. a sign of Gold Longs.
I think this marks the end of the bear market. We had a similar jump in January 2009, which marked the end of the bear market from March 2008. Buy now or be sorry... I got myself 56 Kennedy-64 half dollars for $14 each yesterday afternoon. I will get myself some gold next week too, I hope we will see a short term pullback beginning of the week!

[gunDriller]

since the Cartel seems to raid every time there is a report of economic news, here's this week's (June 4 to June 8 ) list of econ. reports -

----- Monday, June 4th -----

10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for April. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in orders.

----- Tuesday, June 5th -----

9:00 AM: Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ This is the diesel fuel index for May (a measure of transportation).

10:00 AM: ISM non-Manufacturing Index for May. The consensus is for the index to be unchanged at 53.5. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.

This graph shows the ISM non-manufacturing index (started in January 2008) and the ISM non-manufacturing employment diffusion index. The index declined sharply in April.

10:00 AM: Trulia Price & Rent Monitors for May. This is the new index from Trulia that uses asking prices adjusted both for the mix of homes listed for sale and for seasonal factors.

----- Wednesday, June 6th -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. Expect record low mortgage rates and probably an increase in refinance activity.

8:30 AM: Productivity and Costs for Q1 (Final). The consensus is for a 2.1% increase in unit labor costs.

2:00 PM: Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts. This will receive extra attention this month as investors look for signs of a slowdown.

7:00 PM: Speech by Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen, "The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy", At the Boston Economic Club Dinner, Boston, Massachusetts

----- Thursday, June 7th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decline to 379 thousand from 383 thousand last week.

10:00 AM: Testimony, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, "Economic Outlook and Policy", before the Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Senate.

3:00 PM: Consumer Credit for April. The consensus is for a $12.0 billion increase in consumer credit.

12:00 PM: Q1 Flow of Funds Accounts from the Federal Reserve.

----- Friday, June 8th -----

8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for April from the Census Bureau.

Exports increased in March, and were at record levels. Imports increased even more. Exports are 13% above the pre-recession peak and up 7% compared to March 2011; imports are 3% above the pre-recession peak, and up about 8% compared to March 2011.

The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to decrease to $49.3 billion in April, down from from $51.8 billion in March. Export activity to Europe will be closely watched due to economic weakness. Also oil prices started to decline in April, but that probably won't reduce imports until May.

10:00 AM: Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories for April. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in inventories.

from
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/

[osoab]

I think this post at ZH is pertinent.





http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/pictures/picture-5.jpg (http://www.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden)
The Deer Is Back (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/deer-back)Submitted by Tyler Durden (http://www.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden) on 06/01/2012 - 16:48 Ben Bernanke (http://www.zerohedge.com/category/tags/ben-bernanke) European Central Bank

(http://www.zerohedge.com/category/tags/european-central-bank)
It seems high-yield credit was on to something as we noted last night (here (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/what-does-high-yield-credit-know-stocks-dont) and here (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/market-fails-zucker-gullible-traders-end-day-stop-hunt)). Today's matrix-like collapse in equity perceptions of decoupling and central bank largesse sets up for more of the same as we suspect the ECB will hold off from acting until post-Greek-election to ensure the M.A.D. 'game' remains in place and with rates where they are, Bernanke will have to come up with some magical wording for his next QE raison d'etre. Today's 2.5% drop in the S&P 500 back below its 200DMA, its largest single-day drop in seven months, and the accompanying flood into safe-havens has left Gold and Treasury Bonds now outperforming Stocks for the year (with the Dow red YTD). S&P 500 e-mini futures volume was it highest of the year as we sit at the edge of the waterfall level from last July/August's plunge. Gold's 4% gain is the biggest day since January 2009. Treasury yields plunged to new all-time record lows with 30Y showing a 2.50% handle and 10Y a 1.43% handle. All the high-beta hope names were crushed with financials down 3.7% - their largest fall in 7 months (with the majors even more). VIX jumped 2.6 vols to close above 26.5% at 7 month highs. What is perhaps most disconcerting is the total lack of bounce into the close now two days-in-a-row - deer, meet headlights.

[Neuro]

Friday was a reality realignment of the Dow/Gold-ratio. I think we may have it below 5 soon enough, possibly before the end of the year!

Thanks Osoab you are a great cont-ributor! ;D

[Sparky]

Such fast price movement this week! Gold shot to an interim high of $1640 on Wednesday, and then did a full 61.8% Fib retracement to $1560 in a little over 36 hours, and now seems to have bounced up off that rather convincingly today. If that was some type of planned smack down, it was met with tremendous buying at a key technical level for traders. Hold on to your hats!

[gunDriller]

today's raid is PATHETIC.

is that the best they can do ?

they knocked silver down 50 cents and gold down $10.

c'mon, Blythe, you can do better than THAT.

[madfranks]

Well, gold just broke $1600 on the down side, and silver's at $27.50. I've been waiting for a good buy time, I think this might be it.

[Sparky]

today's raid is PATHETIC.

is that the best they can do ?

they knocked silver down 50 cents and gold down $10.

c'mon, Blythe, you can do better than THAT.

Looks like they were up to your challenge. Low's so far today:

Silver $26.89 -$1.23 -4.4%
Gold $1566 -$41 -2.6%

[Sparky]

Low this morning down at $1554, so we've broken into this lower range. Seems seasonally too early to be establishing a bottom, so I'm guessing we're going to get to that $1540.

This post was from May 14th. Seasonally, we expect bottoms during July, so it could be that we are now making a run for that $1540 at a more seasonally-appropriate time.

[gunDriller]

This post was from May 14th. Seasonally, we expect bottoms during July, so it could be that we are now making a run for that $1540 at a more seasonally-appropriate time.

Dan Norcini has just mentioned $24 & 24.50 as possible lows.

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/

but all the reasons cited for the run-up to $1900 last summer are still in place.


the Cartel has managed to scare away a lot of investors. leaving committed folks like G-S.us members - and central banks like China - who are Hoovering up the gold.

what the Gold Market needs is another month long debate about the debt ceiling. that was the background for last year's run-up.


to me it is almost mind-boggling that the US $ is where many investors go in a "flight to safety". it's like jumping from the frying pan into the blast furnace.

[Son-of-Liberty]

There have been rumors of QE3. This smack down could be because they want metals lower before they blast off due to QE.

[LuckyStrike]

the Cartel has managed to scare away a lot of investors. leaving committed folks like G-S.us members - and central banks like China - who are Hoovering up the gold..

Exactly, the longer PM's stay in the doldrums the more questions I get personally. The bottom line of course is NONE of the reasons which led me to PM's in the first place have changed. I can envision 3 scenarios for the macro picture going forward

1) Dollar debasement to ease the federal debt burden
2) Debt jubilee all debts public and private are expunged (laughable)
3) Honest default on our debt

I see no way that the US (and largely the world) can avoid at least one of the scenarios and in every case I want to own tangible assets. It may be 10 years from happening it may be 10 minutes from happening but unless I am completely clueless of economics and world history it will eventually happen. If I am wrong and Ctrl+P does save us all, well lucky me, I still get paid twice a month in FRN's.

[Xizang]

What the hell is this about ?

Silver jumped $1+ all of a sudden just now. Not complaining, mind you. Just puzzled...

[gunDriller]

Exactly, the longer PM's stay in the doldrums the more questions I get personally. The bottom line of course is NONE of the reasons which led me to PM's in the first place have changed. I can envision 3 scenarios for the macro picture going forward

1) Dollar debasement to ease the federal debt burden
2) Debt jubilee all debts public and private are expunged (laughable)
3) Honest default on our debt

I see no way that the US (and largely the world) can avoid at least one of the scenarios and in every case I want to own tangible assets. It may be 10 years from happening it may be 10 minutes from happening but unless I am completely clueless of economics and world history it will eventually happen. If I am wrong and Ctrl+P does save us all, well lucky me, I still get paid twice a month in FRN's.


regarding the timing - Spanish debt was downgraded to Junk yesterday Tuesday June 26.

like i said in an other post, i think we are at the "Lehman moment" when all the credit default insurance that was purchased on Spanish debt is "Activated" - only to find out that there's no money backing it, the Banksters were just collecting premiums and making promises.

if the sequence of events proceeds as in the US, we will see panic, a collapse in equity markets, and announcement of "the Rescue" (money-printing) in the next 6 months, mirroring the period in the US from September, 2008 to March 2009. Lehman actually occurred in 2007, preceding the Mass Panic by about a year - sort of like Greece.


as long as silver is trading as a risk asset, it will be bumped into the lower price tiers - $26.xx, $25.xx, and $24.xx.

combine that with the Cartel raids.

i think we will see such a raid today Wednesday June 27. partially based on -
1. current price action
2. the fact that yesterday was options expiry and the day after options expiry is typically a period of price discovery, when the banksters love to do their raids.
3. the Cartel's history of raids.

[mamboni]

regarding the timing - Spanish debt was downgraded to Junk yesterday Tuesday June 26.

like i said in an other post, i think we are at the "Lehman moment" when all the credit default insurance that was purchased on Spanish debt is "Activated" - only to find out that there's no money backing it, the Banksters were just collecting premiums and making promises.

if the sequence of events proceeds as in the US, we will see panic, a collapse in equity markets, and announcement of "the Rescue" (money-printing) in the next 6 months, mirroring the period in the US from September, 2008 to March 2009. Lehman actually occurred in 2007, preceding the Mass Panic by about a year - sort of like Greece.


as long as silver is trading as a risk asset, it will be bumped into the lower price tiers - $26.xx, $25.xx, and $24.xx.

combine that with the Cartel raids.

i think we will see such a raid today Wednesday June 27. partially based on -
1. current price action
2. the fact that yesterday was options expiry and the day after options expiry is typically a period of price discovery, when the banksters love to do their raids.
3. the Cartel's history of raids.

Greatly appreciate this thoughtful post!

Not being a professional trader, I find these markets too volatile and unpredictable to trade. The markets seem to have no connection to fundamentals. They spike and dip in response to statements and rumors by central bankers and politicians. Personally, I've decided to sit tight and put my trust in gold, silver and the mining shares, come what may. Sooner or later, the fundamentals have to win, as will gold and silver. The important thing to remember is that wealth is measured in ounces, not paper dollars.

[Sparky]

Low this morning down at $1554, so we've broken into this lower range. Seems seasonally too early to be establishing a bottom, so I'm guessing we're going to get to that $1540.


This post was from May 14th. Seasonally, we expect bottoms during July, so it could be that we are now making a run for that $1540 at a more seasonally-appropriate time.

Time to revisit this train of thought. Down to $1546 today, so we've edged even closer to this target, as we begin to enter the more "seasonally-appropriate" time. With only one more trading day in June after today, and PM price reversals tending to happen at the cusp of a new month, it's possible that we finally touch this long-awaited target within the next 24 hours.

If the $1540 doesn't hold as we move after we move into July, that would suggest that we're heading for the "rock solid" bottom of $1460 over the summer months, which represents the low price that we could reach without doing severe technical price damage.

If you've been holding dry powder, this might be a good time to deploy 1/2 to 2/3 of it, saving the remainder in case the $1460 remains in play. I think this goes for silver, too. Either this $26 is going to hold ($26.04 so far today), or the $24 is in play later this summer. Just my opinion...DYODD.

[madfranks]

If the $1540 doesn't hold as we move after we move into July, that would suggest that we're heading for the "rock solid" bottom of $1460 over the summer months

That's the big "if". There is a lot of big money that bought in higher than this (didn't India buy tons of physical at around $1600?). It seems to me that this has to be the bottom and the recovery from July forward should be impressive.

[gunDriller]

That's the big "if". There is a lot of big money that bought in higher than this (didn't India buy tons of physical at around $1600?). It seems to me that this has to be the bottom and the recovery from July forward should be impressive.

as did China. they bought 100 tons in April - 1/2 of world gold production. that kept the floor at about $1610 for several weeks.

[osoab]

So what is the cause today? Just the bucky movement?

[gunDriller]

So what is the cause today? Just the bucky movement?

you mean Friday's bump in equity prices ? i'm thinking the market had a "Merkel-ectomy".

the EU pseudo-leaders met, for the 19th time this crisis, to talk about the crisis, and as before, made vague resolutions that all point at the same thing - printing money.


i think the week ahead will be a week of growing panic, with occasional bouts of calm. like a manic-depressive patient in the midst of a growing crisis.

even after the temporary mood-swing positive on Friday, today Monday equity markets are turning down.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures/

June economic results are reported this week. this website keeps pretty good track of the weekly economic reports that the Cartel uses as opportunities to raid the metals -
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/

[Sparky]

So, we went from $1546 up to $1625 over the last week or so. A .618 Fib retracement would be $1576. We just saw a plunge that stopped at $1575.

Laying out a few possibilities:

1) $1575 was it. Onward and upward to the next interim high of $1704.
2) We never got to the $1540 target. We still need to get there before we can establish higher highs.
3) In order to smash above the $1920 record, we must first get to the rock solid $1460 floor to attract as many foundational buyers as possible.

[madfranks]

I think we'll test the $1540 target before the next leg up.

[Sparky]

So, we went from $1546 up to $1625 over the last week or so. A .618 Fib retracement would be $1576. We just saw a plunge that stopped at $1575.

Laying out a few possibilities:

1) $1575 was it. Onward and upward to the next interim high of $1704.
2) We never got to the $1540 target. We still need to get there before we can establish higher highs.
3) In order to smash above the $1920 record, we must first get to the rock solid $1460 floor to attract as many foundational buyers as possible.


I think we'll test the $1540 target before the next leg up.

The $1575 just got busted ($1564 so far). So the $1540 is on the table.

[gunDriller]

seems like TMFTB (the MF that Be) are working might hard to keep gold below $1700, while silver continues a steady climb.

makes me wonder if silver sitting in the $1690's these last few days, without crossing the $1700 line except perhaps for milliseconds, is the result of the Cartel at work.

or just "normal price discovery", whatever that means in a highly manipulated market.

[Neuro]

seems like TMFTB (the MF that Be) are working might hard to keep gold below $1700, while silver continues a steady climb.

makes me wonder if silver sitting in the $1690's these last few days, without crossing the $1700 line except perhaps for milliseconds, is the result of the Cartel at work.

or just "normal price discovery", whatever that means in a highly manipulated market.
Good question. To me it seems stupid to try and hold price down after breaking a major resistance line around $1675, you would get far more leverage (bang for your bucks) if you sell heavily at resistance after an extended period of a rise. So I am leaning towards it being a natural price discovery at this point. Possibly miners wants to tie in this relatively high price, by selling future contracts. Profit taking by short term speculators is another possibility. Of course you can't rule out that players with infinitely deep pockets (read Fed and ECB), are trying to limit/slow down golds rise, but as far as I can remember it is not unusual that the rise happen fairly slowly after a break through from a previously medium term bearish pattern. At this point it is only a couple of days...

[undgrd]

BOOM goes the dynamite!
http://gold-silver.us/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=3643&d=1347022373

[Neuro]

A +$1 move in what? Less than 15 minutes! Very impressive, did China just say they are not going to accept USD, for trade?

[mamboni]

A +$1 move in what? Less than 15 minutes! Very impressive, did China just say they are not going to accept USD, for trade?

China has just announced a large stimulus program.
Draghi has announced "umlimited" bond purchases.
Jobs report this AM is piss poor.

ergo...

The FED will announce QE3 and it will be massive.

For the record, the FED never stopped QE and has been buying almost all Treasury debt since 2008. So QE3 will like be massive purchase of non-soveriegn debt instruments, like MBS, corporate bonds, etc. Gold and silver smell this coming and are reacting!

[MNeagle]

Is this anything?


Canada has closed its embassy in Iran, will expel all remaining Iranian diplomats from Canada within 5 days

Rueters tweet from breakingnews.com

[Neuro]

China has just announced a large stimulus program.
Draghi has announced "umlimited" bond purchases.
Jobs report this AM is piss poor.

ergo...

The FED will announce QE3 and it will be massive.

For the record, the FED never stopped QE and has been buying almost all Treasury debt since 2008. So QE3 will like be massive purchase of non-soveriegn debt instruments, like MBS, corporate bonds, etc. Gold and silver smell this coming and are reacting!
Indeed, they never stopped QE. Apart from the official QE1 and 2, you have the CB swaps in between (which most likely is much greater than QE1&2), and then you have the 0-interest loans to the banks, at $16 trillion, which will never be repayed. In effect the Fed has printed at least $20 trillion, and announced officially about $1-2 trillion. Not only fractional reserve banking, but also fractional truth!

[Neuro]

Is this anything?



Rueters tweet from breakingnews.com
So, it is official, the war begins within weeks! Triplefuck!

[k-os]

Is this anything?



Canada has closed its embassy in Iran, will expel all remaining Iranian diplomats from Canada within 5 days


Rueters tweet from breakingnews.com

That does not sound good!

[k-os]

That does not sound good!

Here's a link to the story:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/09/07/pol-baird-canada-iran-embassy.html

[gunDriller]

i won't get the second half of the story for a few months.

one of the guys in the running group at the Internet cafe where i go, is travelling to Israel for a few weeks. all i heard of it is the social part, like one of the other runners said, "have nice time in Israel".

so it was either,
"have a nice time in Israel visiting holy sites"

OR

"have a nice time in Israel supporting the tech contractor you work for, helping them kill people".


one of the guys in my swimming group disappeared to Egypt the last week in December 2008. his company had the contract for the core opto-electronic component used in IR (Infrared) video systems.

that happened to be the time of Israel's attack on Gaza, when they killed 1400 civilians, starting December 27 to about the 3rd week in 2009.


i would say that collective tell-tale migration of techies from American defense contractors to Israel is one of the hallmark signatures of a genuine attack-in-progress.


what i was going to say - Silver Be Up, Brothers & Sisters ! :)

[Sparky]

So, it is official, the war begins within weeks! Triplefuck!

Triplefuck? I learn a new word here every day. This place is like watching the Learning Channel.

[Neuro]

Triplefuck? I learn a new word here every day. This place is like watching the Learning Channel.
Short for Fuck! Fuck! Fuck! ;D

[gunDriller]

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/69/Delta_IV_Medium_Rocket_DSCS.jpg/270px-Delta_IV_Medium_Rocket_DSCS.jpg


http://www.carlsonmeissner.com/userfiles/images/boat.jpg


just thought we should have a picture of a Silver Rocket and a Boating Accident ! :)


PS

it sounds like the FOMC will conclude their current pre-QE strip tease on September 13, i guess that's Thursday.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/09/analysis-i-expect-qe3-on-sept-13th.html

[MNeagle]

Reactions of the Ben's remarks:

http://finviz.com/fut_image.ashx?gc.png&rev=634831378336677500 http://finviz.com/fut_image.ashx?si.png&rev=634831378737302500 http://finviz.com/fut_image.ashx?ym.png&rev=634831378737302500

[Neuro]

Reactions of the Ben's remarks:

http://finviz.com/fut_image.ashx?gc.png&rev=634831378336677500 http://finviz.com/fut_image.ashx?si.png&rev=634831378737302500 http://finviz.com/fut_image.ashx?ym.png&rev=634831378737302500
What did he say? The world is running out of cash to cover the deficits at an alarming rate. We are not sure our dollar digitizer machine can keep up, but we have commissioned an Israeli electronics company to give us 10 new ones quickly!

[Libertarian_Guard]

http://i49.tinypic.com/15ch8v4.jpg



How could it have been otherwise?

[MNeagle]

oh come on, open another tab!


Fed to spend $40 billion a month on bond purchases to boost weak US economy, no end date set; leaves interest rates unchanged - @AP (http://twitter.com/AP), @CNBC (http://twitter.com/CNBC)

[Libertarian_Guard]

http://i48.tinypic.com/ek7bc.jpg

Down go the USD........

[Neuro]

So about half a trillion a month, if you translate it to total monetization (QE3+unofficial monetary easing)

[Libertarian_Guard]

http://i48.tinypic.com/ta1vlk.jpg


How sweet it is!

[MNeagle]

& now for some visuals:

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=GC&cot=088691&p=h1


http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=SI&cot=084691&p=h1

[Libertarian_Guard]

& now for some visuals:

Alice, Alice, Alice


http://i49.tinypic.com/19ko3n.jpg

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=GC&cot=088691&p=h1


http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=SI&cot=084691&p=h1

A humina, humina, humina..........

[MNeagle]

Bernanke Unleashes The Path To New All Time Highs In Precious
Metals



http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/pictures/picture-5.jpg (http://gold-silver.us/users/tyler-durden)
Submitted by Tyler Durden (http://gold-silver.us/users/tyler-durden) on
09/13/2012 13:17 -0400




Ben Bernanke (http://gold-silver.us/taxonomy_vtn/term/304)
NASDAQ (http://gold-silver.us/taxonomy_vtn/term/10969)
Precious Metals (http://gold-silver.us/taxonomy_vtn/term/11344)





There was one thing, ONE THING only that Bernanke could do,
to become a gold bug's best friend today, than merely announcing QE 3/4. It was
to announce open-ended QE. This means this is the
Fed's final shot and there is no way to frontrun the Fed any more by definition.
It means the terminal start of currency debasement is now here. It also means
that the path to all time nominal (and inflation adjusted) highs in gold, which
is now just $160 away, silver, platinum, and all other metals, as well as all
other hard assets is now clear. It also means that very soon stocks are about to
realize what soaring "input costs" mean for the bottom line.

Thank you Chairsatan: you are truly a gold bug's bestest
friend!

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2012/09/20120913_goldsilver_0.png




and in case you were wondering, Silver is now equal YTD with the NASDAQ and
Gold is catching up to the S&P...


http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2012/09/20120913_goldsilver1_0.png





http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bernanke-unleashes-path-new-all-time-highs-precious-metals?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedg e+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+fo r+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

[Libertarian_Guard]

http://i46.tinypic.com/op5pig.jpg


http://i49.tinypic.com/9sxdee.jpg

[gunDriller]

oh come on, open another tab!

maybe he doesn't drink Tab.

seems more like a Mountain Dew guy to me. need that Sugar High when you're shoveling cash out of Air Force 2.

[Libertarian_Guard]

http://i46.tinypic.com/2evq2hx.png





USD continuing to dive this morning.

[Neuro]

http://i46.tinypic.com/2evq2hx.png





USD continuing to dive this morning.
Quite a significant drop starting two days prior to Fed announcement. Well informed money?

[undgrd]

USD under 80
Gold up almost 1% to 1786
Silver up 1.3% over 35

Another good day for honest money

[mamboni]

USD under 80
Gold up almost 1% to 1786
Silver up 1.3% over 35

Another good day for honest money

Notwithstanding the announcement of QE3 to infinity, the gold chart shows a year long pennant running into a beautiful cup-an-handle figure, an incredibly bullish technical signal.

[Neuro]

& now for some visuals:

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=GC&cot=088691&p=h1


http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=SI&cot=084691&p=h1
Seems like we have started a tradition of a Friday smack up the exception was last week, when the smack up occurred on Thursday, due to the Chairsatan announcement!

[Libertarian_Guard]

http://i46.tinypic.com/2s9axbc.jpg



How sweet it is!




http://i50.tinypic.com/xm1jlk.jpg




Bang, Zoom!

[Neuro]

Seems like we have started a tradition of a Friday smack up the exception was last week, when the smack up occurred on Thursday, due to the Chairsatan announcement!
I jinxed it!

[1970 silver art]

Today was the 5th day that silver was hit $35 but was not able to close above $35. I am just guessing here but that could possibly be bad news for silver in that we could possibly see a correction from current levels. It is of my opinion that it could go down from here to the $30-$31 range and there is that possibility that it could retest the $26 level before the end of this year. This is just a WAG on my part and we will have to see what happens.

[mamboni]

Today was the 5th day that silver was hit $35 but was not able to close above $35. I am just guessing here but that could possibly be bad news for silver in that we could possibly see a correction from current levels. It is of my opinion that it could go down from here to the $30-$31 range and there is that possibility that it could retest the $26 level before the end of this year. This is just a WAG on my part and we will have to see what happens.

Silver dropped today because JP Morgue et al. dropped over 60 million ounces of silver short paper onto the market in under fifteen minutes. It's called market manipulation and it's illegal. But illegality is only a quaint notion in these corrupt United States markets. Some day, Blythe is going to get skewered on a silver stake, and it will be well-deserved.

[1970 silver art]

Silver dropped today because JP Morgue et al. dropped over 60 million ounces of silver short paper onto the market in under fifteen minutes. It's called market manipulation and it's illegal. But illegality is only a quaint notion in these corrupt United States markets. Some day, Blythe is going to get skewered on a silver stake, and it will be well-deserved.

JPM is the big elephant in the room when it comes to the silver market. As long as they can control the silver market, then they can call the shots in terms of how high they want it to go in my opinion. Like last year, JPM and COMEX did all sorts of gimmicks and paper schemes to prevent it from hitting and holding $50 in late April. I am very certain that if/when silver makes another run at the $50 level like it did last year, then there will be margin increases, naked shorting schemes and other "rule changes" to keep a lid on it for a while longer. So far, $35 is the resistance level for silver and JPM seems to be winning that battle for the time being.

The long-term negative fundamentals of the U.S $, U.S. economy, and the financial condition of the U.S. gov't (i.e. rapidly rising national debt, high Federal deficits, etc.) as well as "QE Infinity" favor higher gold and silver prices as well as higher prices for other goods and services. There will come a point in time that the negative long term fundamentals that I mentioned will overcome the artificial manipulation of JPM and COMEX but I do not feel that this will happen anytime soon and that is why I have this gut feeling that silver will not hit and hold $50 before 2015. 2015 is not a special year. It is just a year that I picked. In my opinion, there is still too much JPM and COMEX artificial influence over the silver market and that will prevent it from closing above $50 and staying above $50.

[mamboni]

JPM is the big elephant in the room when it comes to the silver market. As long as they can control the silver market, then they can call the shots in terms of how high they want it to go in my opinion. Like last year, JPM and COMEX did all sorts of gimmicks and paper schemes to prevent it from hitting and holding $50 in late April. I am very certain that if/when silver makes another run at the $50 level like it did last year, then there will be margin increases, naked shorting schemes and other "rule changes" to keep a lid on it for a while longer. So far, $35 is the resistance level for silver and JPM seems to be winning that battle for the time being.

The long-term negative fundamentals of the U.S $, U.S. economy, and the financial condition of the U.S. gov't (i.e. rapidly rising national debt, high Federal deficits, etc.) as well as "QE Infinity" favor higher gold and silver prices as well as higher prices for other goods and services. There will come a point in time that the negative long term fundamentals that I mentioned will overcome the artificial manipulation of JPM and COMEX but I do not feel that this will happen anytime soon and that is why I have this gut feeling that silver will not hit and hold $50 before 2015. 2015 is not a special year. It is just a year that I picked. In my opinion, there is still too much JPM and COMEX artificial influence over the silver market and that will prevent it from closing above $50 and staying above $50.

I think you have an exaggerated high opinion of yourself. With due respect, I'll make my investments in silver based on the fundamentals, not some ad hoc opinion ostensibly pulled out of thin air.

[1970 silver art]

I think you have an exaggerated high opinion of yourself. With due respect, I'll make my investments in silver based on the fundamentals, not some ad hoc opinion ostensibly pulled out of thin air.

I respect what you post and I do agree with you on some things relating to the metals. In this case, I just have a viewpoint on the short-term movement of silver that is different from yours and I have my reasons for thinking that way that I do and I stated those reasons on here and on other threads here on GSUS and on GIM2. I could be right in my prediction. I could be wrong in my prediction. I do not think that my opinion of myself is as exaggerated as you think and I am really no better than anyone else. All I am doing is just expressing an opposing viewpoint on the short-term price movement of silver and I am not afraid to post that and I will NOT back down from that gut prediction that I make on silver on here or on GIM2. We will just have to agree to disagree and move on. We will have to see what happens with the price of silver. I do not mean to be a PITA for just expressing an opposing viewpoint on this but I am serious when I say what I say about silver.

[Sparky]

I think Silver Art Josey will be wrong about this one, but he's actually quite humble. :)

[BrewTech]

I think Silver Art Josey will be wrong about this one, but he's actually quite humble. :)

I suspect he is a banker.

[Neuro]

I suspect he is a banker.
I think it is HAL! There is a certain non-human characteristic to its replies. Not to mention its record in pulling perfect predictions out of his ass. It may be a JPM trading program we are talking with here. Certainly thinks very highly of JPM...

What say you? ;D

[1970 silver art]

I suspect he is a banker.

I am not a banker and I have never worked for any bank.

[1970 silver art]

I think it is HAL! There is a certain non-human characteristic to its replies. Not to mention its record in pulling perfect predictions out of his ass. It may be a JPM trading program we are talking with here. Certainly thinks very highly of JPM...

What say you? ;D

As I responded to Brewtech in the post above yours, I am not a banker. I am not a paper trader at all. I am just a collector that loves to collect silver art bars but I do have an interest in keeping up with what the metals markets (and other markets) do to get an idea of what is happening (or what I think might happen in the near future). I am not a "JPM trading program" and I really do not like JPM or any of the other big banks. All I am really saying is that JPM has been able to (so far) keep silver under $50 and it is of my gut feeling prediction that they will continue to do that for a while longer (up until 12-31-2014 as a wild guess) until the long term negative fundamentals overwhelm what JPM and COMEX are doing to the silver market. That time will come but it will not come anytime soon IMO. I think that most people on here agree with the long-term movement of silver going up and eventually hitting and holding well above $50 in the long term but I think that we disagree with timing of when that will happen. We will have to agree to disagree on when those negative financial long term fundamentals will eventually overtake the artificial manipulation. We will have to see how things unfold.

While it is true that I got lucky with my 2010 and 2011 gut feeling prediction, those were lucky guesses and I was right and I never backed down on my gut feeling predictions back then and I will not back down on this current silver gut feeling prediction. As I mentioned earlier, I could be wrong or I could be right. We will have to see between now and December 31, 2014 if I will be right. Nobody really knows what will happen with the spot silver price. All we are doing is just guessing. Your guesses may be more "educated" than mine but they are still guesses.

EDIT: In order for me to be wrong on my current gut feeling prediction on silver, spot silver would need to close at or above $50 for one (1) trading day (Kitco quote close of business at 5:15 PM US Eastern Time) between now and December 31, 2014. It is simply not good enough for silver to just hit $50. It would have to close at or above $50 for one (1) trading day between now and December 31, 2014 for my current gut feeling on silver to be proven wrong. If my current gut feeling prediction is proven wrong and silver does indeed close at or above $50 for one trading day between now and December 31, 2014, then I will be more than happy to admit that I was wrong by posting that I was wrong on this thread (and on GIM2). I have no problem doing that. However, I am not worried because I feel that I will be right on my gut feeling prediction. To be honest with you, it really does not matter to me if I am right or wrong on this gut feeling prediction because I will continue to find and buy the silver art bars that I want to add to my collection. The spot silver price movements fo not bother me because I love the silver art bar hobby and I do not let the spot price movements affect my buying decisions especially when it goes down. I know that you and Mamboni and maybe others here think on GSUS that I am crazy and full of crap but I have been right and I will stand by what my gut feeling tells me about silver and that is that silver will NOT hit and hold $50 between now and December 31, 2014. I do not have any problems with you or anyone else that disagree with me on this and I am not trying to cause any problems. All I am doing is expressing a viewpoint on silver that disagrees with what most people are saying about silver. You have a right to disagree with me on this but in the end, I love everybody and I do not have hard feelings for anybody on this forum.

[gunDriller]

I think you have an exaggerated high opinion of yourself. With due respect, I'll make my investments in silver based on the fundamentals, not some ad hoc opinion ostensibly pulled out of thin air.

wow ! good time for a debate.

90% of what Silver Art posted is factual.

the part about $50 silver being the top going forward/ in the future - well there's a decent reason for picking that number - it's the price that elicited desperation action in April 2011.


the question is, can JP Morgan contain the silver market ?

related questions - is the strong dollar policy moving to other metals - will they give up on containing silver and just concentrate on interfering with other countries' currencies to the benefit of the US $ ?


how many ounces of physical would have to be taken out of the system (bought & held by long term investors) to make JPM's paper BS non-functional (just a daily 10 AM downtick on a rising trend) ?

i think it's between 100 million & a billion ounces - $3.5 Billion to $35 Billion. A drop in the bucket.


one of the things that makes silver a great investment is that so little money is invested in physical (plus its history, etc.)

Fortune & other biz. mags have all these articles about "top 100 billionaires", etc. just think if there were 10 Eric Sprotts - all buying between now & the end of the year.


http://www.cosmosmagazine.com/files/imagecache/feature/files/features/print/20110309_rocket.jpg

[Neuro]

I think most Billionaires knows not to bite the hand that they were dependent on creating their current fortune by buying silver. But I do think you are correct that somewhere between a 100 million to a Billion ounces taken out of physical circulation would be sufficient to crush the manipulators game, the quantity is mainly dependent on the time frame it is taken out, a month a hundred million ounces is enough, 3 years or so for a billion ounces. I would count more on millionaires, and middle class people to do it though... But who knows if there is an odd self made Billionaire or two, that get a whiff of this...

[Neuro]

Gawd am nit! I was joking Josey! But your defense suggests you are a machine! ;D

[Sparky]

Here's why I think Josey will be wrong.

In this bull run, silver has had 8 strong multi-month uplegs. Alternating uplegs have resulted in a new high at least 30% more than the previous high. Here's chart of the 8 uplegs, showing the date of the peak (approx), the price, and the months between peaks:




Date
Price

Months

Comment


4/1/04
8.25



new high


12/1/04
8.10

8

failed test



5/10/06
15.00

18

new high


11/7/07
15.90

18

failed test



5/10/08
21.00

6

hew high


12/5/09
19.00

19

failed test



5/2/11
48.00

17

new high



2/29/12
37.00

10

failed test




The tough question is whether the 2/29/12 was a big enough peak to count as a failed test. So there are two scenarios; one assuming that it was a failed test, and the second that it wasn't.

1) After a failed test, the longest time to a new high is about 18 months. If the 2012 counts as a fail, it means the new major high (up at leat 30%, or over $60) would occur as early as April 2013 but as late as September/October of 2013. In this scenario, I could see either a record in Spring 2013, or a secondary failed test at $50 in Spring 2013, followed by the record surge a year from now.

2) If it wasn't a failed test in 2012, then a failed test would have to come within 18 months of the May 2011 high, which is around this November (near the election, interestingly). Let's say that's the second failed attempt at $50, which I think is a very plausible scenario. That means we'd have to wait another 18 months to establish a new high, which puts us to May 2014.

So neither scenario makes us wait until 2015:

1) Either a record ~$60-$75 in in Feb-Apr 2013, or a $50 fail at that time, a pullback summer 2013, and then a record high $60-$90 in late 2013.

2) A $40-$50 fail in November 2012, another 18 month consolidation, then a record high $60-$90 in Feb-Apr 2014.

My longer term guess has always been a final blowoff in either 2014 or 2016-2017. So if the next high is the final high, the upside would be a brief spike to touch $100, then a 50% collapse. If not, then I think the 2016-2017 would be the blowoff in the $125-$150 range.

[Sparky]

One other comment regarding any of those talked-about scenarios that puts silver at $200-$1000 and gold at $5,000-$40,000...

Those are possible scenarios that only happen in a total hyperinflationary SHTF scenario, which means there's no clue as to what buying power silver and gold would have. In other words, silver will have the same purchasing power in 2016-2017 regardless of whether it's at $150 or $1000. Factoring in inflation, my guess is that it's purchasing power will be roughly double or triple to what it is right now. (Note: it may only keep par with gas/oil, or maybe 1.5x, since those will also rise at a disproportionate rate.) So $1 face of silver that buys you a pair of Wrangler jeans now may buy you 2 or 3 pairs at peak price. But the $25 in fiat that buys you one pair now may only buy you half a pair or a third of a pair later. So the relative buying power over fiat will likely increase by 4x to 9x from now until whenever the peak occurs, regardless of whether the peak is $100 or $1000.

[gunDriller]

in terms of estimating the timing of up moves, the timing of QE3 announcements ties in.

QE1 - March 18, 2009

QE2 - November 2010

QE3 - September 2012


about every year and a half. though the most recent one is different, a "QEx", $40 Billion a month - forever ?

of course, with all the shadow printing, not acknowledged, in the background.


the markets are like a child kept in the closet, raised by a schizophrenic father & a manic-depressive mother.

[Neuro]

in terms of estimating the timing of up moves, the timing of QE3 announcements ties in.

QE1 - March 18, 2009

QE2 - November 2010

QE3 - September 2012


about every year and a half. though the most recent one is different, a "QEx", $40 Billion a month - forever ?

of course, with all the shadow printing, not acknowledged, in the background.


the markets are like a child kept in the closet, raised by a schizophrenic father & a manic-depressive mother.
Wanted to visualize that:
http://gold-silver.us/forum/webkit-fake-url://172D51D6-25C9-4215-BA15-E6303C9E7770/imagegif

[Neuro]

Wanted to visualize that:
http://gold-silver.us/forum/webkit-fake-url://172D51D6-25C9-4215-BA15-E6303C9E7770/imagegif
Fuckit can someone post a 5 year chart of silver seems like I am not able to do that any longer...

[undgrd]

I couldn't find a 5 years chart but, here are the 1 year charts for the last 5 years.

2008
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/ag2008.gif

2009
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/ag2009.gif

2010
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/ag2010.gif

2011
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/ag2011.gif

2012 YTD
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/ag2012.gif

[gunDriller]

Fuckit can someone post a 5 year chart of silver seems like I am not able to do that any longer...

http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/ag2009.gif

http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/ag2010.gif

http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/ag2011.gif

http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/ag2012.gif


Dang ! we were charting at the same time. :)


interesting the effect that QE has on PM prices.

you can barely see the mid-March jump in March 2009 - for silver - it's more obvious with gold.

http://www.kitco.com/charts/historicalsilver.html

http://www.kitco.com/charts/historicalgold.html

in both cases, the price retraces (down) much of the up move it made right after the QE announcement.

http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/au2009.gif

on March 18, 2009, it jumped from $880 to $960. i remember, i was preparing for my next boating accident. i was about to buy at $880, walked to the phone, and it was obvious something was 'in the works'.

it makes me wonder how much effect the specific QE announcements have, next to the humongous curves that show the money supply growing humongously.

[undgrd]

^^ ^^

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ytCEuuW2_A


;)

[MNeagle]

& now for some visuals:

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=GC&cot=088691&p=h1


http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=SI&cot=084691&p=h1

today is Yom Kippur

[Neuro]

today is Yom Kippur
Ahh yes, the day to flood the exchange with gold plated tungsten bars!

[MNeagle]

Gold Retreats as Dollar Extends Advance; Silver Declines


By Debarati Roy - Sep 26, 2012 8:58 AM CT

Gold futures fell the most in more than seven weeks as the dollar rose amid concern that the crisis in Spain (http://topics.bloomberg.com/spain/) is worsening, crimping demand for the metal as an alternative investment.

The dollar (http://gold-silver.us/quote/DXY:IND) gained for the third straight day against a basket of six major currencies as Germany, the Netherlands andFinland (http://topics.bloomberg.com/finland/) said Spain should bear the cost of problems in their banks, with the European Stability Mechanism assuming only a limited burden in recapitalizations. Through yesterday, gold climbed 10 percent this quarter, partly on speculation that Europe’s leaders would be able to stem the region’s fiscal woes.


“Global anxieties surrounding Europe are flaring up, and we are seeing a flight to cash,” Adam Klopfenstein (http://topics.bloomberg.com/adam-klopfenstein/), a senior market strategist at Archer Financial Services Inc. in Chicago (http://topics.bloomberg.com/chicago/), said in a telephone interview. “People are in a risk-off mode today.”

Gold futures for December delivery retreated 1.1 percent to $1,746.90 an ounce at 9:55 a.m. on the Comex in New York, heading for the largest drop since Aug. 2. The price is up 11 percent this year.

The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index of 24 raw materials fell as much as 1.3 percent to 650.02, the lowest since Aug. 7.

Silver futures for December delivery fell 1.1 percent to $33.57 an ounce in New York. Prices are heading for the fourth consecutive decline, which would be the longest slump since May 16. The metal is up 21 percent this quarter.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-26/gold-poised-for-best-quarter-since-2010-on-investor-bank-demand.html

[Neuro]

Gold futures fell the most in more than seven weeks as the dollar rose amid concern that the crisis in Spain (http://topics.bloomberg.com/spain/) is worsening, crimping demand for the metal as an alternative investment.

Yeah right! I am sure the author would have used almost the same sentence if gold had advanced!

[mamboni]

Yeah right! I am sure the author would have used almost the same sentence if gold had advanced!

Silly duck! There is no manipulation! There is no spoon!

26 September 2012http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/
Intraday Trends In Gold and Silver: Five Year Rolling Average (http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2012/09/these-charts-are-from-my-friend-nick.html)




These charts are from my friend Nick Laird.

The lesson seems to be 'buy post London fix' and 'sell before the London AM fix.'

Or just ignore the intraday wiggles if you do not have the time and inclination to trade, and wait for this cynical, hypocritical, and criminally fraudulent market centered in NY and London to tear itself apart.



http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-eUOcgwBY0SA/UGMaNA-G6rI/AAAAAAAAZaU/LW_lRcrAzz8/s640/intraAGRoll5Year.PNG (http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-eUOcgwBY0SA/UGMaNA-G6rI/AAAAAAAAZaU/LW_lRcrAzz8/s1600/intraAGRoll5Year.PNG)

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-IXvn707OV84/UGMaN6eBj8I/AAAAAAAAZac/5UdjqvpKtp0/s640/intraAURoll5Year.PNG (http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-IXvn707OV84/UGMaN6eBj8I/AAAAAAAAZac/5UdjqvpKtp0/s1600/intraAURoll5Year.PNG)

[1970 silver art]

This is just my take on this but it seems that since silver is not able to close above $35 leads me to believe that it will go down again and break $33.50 on the downside before it goes down to the $30-$31 trading range. There is too much resistance at the $35 level for silver to advance further for the time being since JPM apparently has this level guarded very well here. Spain (and the European Crisis as a whole) could also have a negative effect on the metals if it gets worse and investors get out of the Euro and run to the U.S. $ for "safety" and sell gold, silver and stocks and stay in cash (U.S. $). I also still think that there is a slight possibility that silver could go down and retest $26 before this year is over. We will see how things unfold in the very near future.

[Neuro]

Silly dog! It will cut through $35 like a hot silver knife through butter next week, or week after at latest! Seasonal strength and QE infinity, will make sure of it!

[1970 silver art]

Silly dog! It will cut through $35 like a hot silver knife through butter next week, or week after at latest! Seasonal strength and QE infinity, will make sure of it!


We will see. So far, silver seems to be having a hard time closing above $35 and that barrier seems to be well guarded by the JPM shorts. I think that silver will go down to the $33.50 level this upcoming week and maybe the week after next it could go down to the $30-$31 level. The reason that I am thinking this because Spain will IMO get worse and people are still going to perceive the U.S. $ as a "safe haven" and they are going to run to it and not to gold and silver. As a matter of fact, I think that gold, silver, and stocks will all go down next week because of the worsening situation in Spain and the U.S dollar. could have a short-term rally as a result of that . BTW I do not disagree with you that QEInfinity (among other long-term negative fundamentals) will eventually cause gold and silver (and everything else) to go up in price but I do not see that happening anytime soon and even if silver does manage to close above $35 this upcoming week and somehow miraculously gets to the $40 level, then it will just get smacked down like it did in early 2011 if/when it makes another attempt to break $50. For the time being, $50 is the barrier that silver will not be able to cross and close above as long as JPM can shoot it down with its short positions. We will have to see what happens in the next few weeks to see how all of this plays out for silver.

[Neuro]

Certainly hasn't closed above $35 yet, but a jump up to $35.48 is a good sign, that $35 is broken!

[gunDriller]

Certainly hasn't closed above $35 yet, but a jump up to $35.48 is a good sign, that $35 is broken!

it will close above $35 today unless the Cartel stages a massive raid - and even if they do stage a massive raid ... outside day reversal ? (that's where it opens down, e.g. at the time of a raid, then climbs back - in the case, above $35.)


i wonder if Blythe uses more hair conditioner (to hide the gray) on days when the raid doesn't go so well.

Hammer-time ? it's like watching silver get a dick-stabbing.

[1970 silver art]

This is just my take on this but it seems that since silver is not able to close above $35 leads me to believe that it will go down again and break $33.50 on the downside before it goes down to the $30-$31 trading range. There is too much resistance at the $35 level for silver to advance further for the time being since JPM apparently has this level guarded very well here. Spain (and the European Crisis as a whole) could also have a negative effect on the metals if it gets worse and investors get out of the Euro and run to the U.S. $ for "safety" and sell gold, silver and stocks and stay in cash (U.S. $). I also still think that there is a slight possibility that silver could go down and retest $26 before this year is over. We will see how things unfold in the very near future.


Silly dog! It will cut through $35 like a hot silver knife through butter next week, or week after at latest! Seasonal strength and QE infinity, will make sure of it!


Silver ended up breaking $33.50 on the downside today (closed today at $33.48) with the very likely scenario (in my opinion) that it will go down to the $30-$31 range in the very near future. I feel that we will see sub-$30 silver before with the possibility of it retesting the $26 support level before this year is over. Whether silver breaks $26 on the downside will depend on how bad the Euro crisis gets. I feel that the European situation will be the major wildcard that will play an important factor on how far down that silver will go IMO. We will see.

3819

[Neuro]

Damn dawg! And his razor sharp predictions, that he pulls out of his gut canal. Blythe is that you?

[1970 silver art]

Damn dawg! And his razor sharp predictions, that he pulls out of his gut canal. Blythe is that you?

Nope. I am not Blythe. However, I heard that she was a hottie and I want to go out on a date with her. Can you set me up on a date with Blythe? :)sal

On a serious note, I suspected that silver was in trouble because on numerous times, it kept hitting $35 but it failed to close above $35 on numerous times. The highest silver close that I saw on Kitco was $34.97 before it started to go back down. Apparently JPM won this "battle" for $35 silver by successfully keeping it from closing above $35. Right now, despite the "QE Infinity" program that the FED is doing, I still strongly think that silver is going to continue to go down further to the $30-$31 range before we see sub-$30 and possibly retest the $26 support level before the end of this year. All this is is just some more JPM naked shorting of silver IMO.

Honestly speaking, I really do not care if it goes down further from here and these down moves of the spot silver price do not bother me at all because that just means that I can continue to buy the silver art bars that I like at the LCS or at a coin show at these current low artificial prices.

[gunDriller]

PM Prices are back to tracking with the Equity Markets.

And Equity Markets are priced on the Edge of a Cliff.


Especially if the US 'fiscal cliff' does not get resolved, it looks like Equity Markets will be going back to 2008-2009 panic mode.

If they do, they will take precious metal prices with them.


Of course, those are paper prices.

But, since those are they prices currently used in the physical market, they are relevant until the market locks up due to un-availability of physical.


Therefore, I suggest - good time to have some dry powder ready for a re-visit to the lows we saw back in May 2012.

The markets are shrugging off QE3.

[1970 silver art]

Hmmmm.........It seems that Blythe is kicking Wynter's ass so far in the paper silver market....................

3837

$32.17 is the intra-day low so far as I type this. I feel that once we break $32 on the downside (maybe today) and silver is in that $30-$31 range, then maybe we will see sub-$30 silver sometime next week at the earliest but it depends on how long silver decides to stay in the $30-$31 range before it resumes it downward movement. A retest of the $26 support level is still a possibility before this year is over. Honestly speaking, I do not know but it is just my gut feeling speaking to me. We will have to see about that. One thing's for certain IMO and it is this................Wynter, as I expected, failed to move the silver price up. I have been suspicious for some time that, after many attempts, when silver failed to close above $35 (highest Kitco close= $34.97), that meant bad news for silver and this current downturn in the spot silver price is proof of what I saying in the last couple of posts on this thread.

Blythe is calling the shots on silver and today is an example of that IMO. Wynter Benton = Fail.

[Neuro]

Wynter Benton is a fiction, created in the previous run up to $49.xx, probably to entice speculators to become bag holders for the shorts. Seriously former traders of JPM, got together, and is now playing against their former boss? I bet the life expectancy of members of such a group would be counted in weeks...

[gunDriller]

Jeez - the silver price is tracking the stock market.

and there's a lot of people who analyze the equity markets stressing that it is wise to take profits now. i.e. they're expecting a significant decline in equity markets, e.g. 20%


i'm not for a second suggesting that it's wise to divest one's PM holdings.

i'm merely salivating at the thought of a repeat visit to $30 silver or $28 silver.

i feel like a bear who has seen a blueberry bush. not sure what else makes bears salivate. rotting carrion ?

[LuckyStrike]

Jeez - the silver price is tracking the stock market.

and there's a lot of people who analyze the equity markets stressing that it is wise to take profits now. i.e. they're expecting a significant decline in equity markets, e.g. 20%


i'm not for a second suggesting that it's wise to divest one's PM holdings.

i'm merely salivating at the thought of a repeat visit to $30 silver or $28 silver.

i feel like a bear who has seen a blueberry bush. not sure what else makes bears salivate. rotting carrion ?

I'd be excited too if I didn't think premiums would just go up and make sub 30 silver coins impossible. I just pulled the trigger on an order for this very reason. I wouldn't doubt spot goes below 30 again, but premiums will just go up so may as well buy now IMO and not worry about it.

I remember when I came to GIM and was asking about what "spot" price was, some responded "spot is a myth" so when people ask me now in person this is my go to answer.

[1970 silver art]

I'd be excited too if I didn't think premiums would just go up and make sub 30 silver coins impossible. I just pulled the trigger on an order for this very reason. I wouldn't doubt spot goes below 30 again, but premiums will just go up so may as well buy now IMO and not worry about it.




That is a very good point and I agree with this. With spot silver currently at $31.81 (as I type this). Some local dealers who bought their silver, for example, for $2 under spot, could be "underwater" or close to it on the silver that they might have bought when spot was, for example, in the high $33 to low $34 range (bought for high $31's to low $32's) and if spot falls in the sub-$30 range (I think that it will happen this week), then I seriously doubt that they are going to sell their physical silver inventory below the price that they bought it at. If spot silver continues to fall to the point where we will test the $26 support level (I expect this to happen as early as next month and before this year is over at the latest), then premiums would go up because the local dealers are not going to take a loss by lowering their prices below what they bought it at. If spot silver breaks the $26 support level on the downside and this happens very quickly (i.e. "flash crash"), then I would expect that the local dealers would just take it off the shelf and put it away until spot recovers. That is pretty much what happened one week in late Sept. 2011 when silver took a deep dive from $39 to $26. I could see a similar scenario playing out again if silver fell that fast.

[LuckyStrike]

That is a very good point and I agree with this. With spot silver currently at $31.81 (as I type this). Some local dealers who bought their silver, for example, for $2 under spot, could be "underwater" or close to it on the silver that they might have bought when spot was, for example, in the high $33 to low $34 range (bought for high $31's to low $32's) and if spot falls in the sub-$30 range (I think that it will happen this week), then I seriously doubt that they are going to sell their physical silver inventory below the price that they bought it at. If spot silver continues to fall to the point where we will test the $26 support level (I expect this to happen as early as next month and before this year is over at the latest), then premiums would go up because the local dealers are not going to take a loss by lowering their prices below what they bought it at. If spot silver breaks the $26 support level on the downside and this happens very quickly (i.e. "flash crash"), then I would expect that the local dealers would just take it off the shelf and put it away until spot recovers. That is pretty much what happened one week in late Sept. 2011 when silver took a deep dive from $39 to $26. I could see a similar scenario playing out again if silver fell that fast.

I was under the impression that silver dealers shorted the amount they had physical and only made profits on the premium?

[1970 silver art]

I was under the impression that silver dealers shorted the amount they had physical and only made profits on the premium?

I could be wrong on this but I think that the major online bullion dealers such as APMEX, Provident metals, Tulving, etc. "hedge" their inventories with COMEX paper shorts. Most of the local dealers are not able to "hedge" their inventories as far as I know.

[steyr_m]

wtf, why is everything dropping? With QE3, things should be going up...

[mamboni]

wtf, why is everything dropping? With QE3, things should be going up...


Markets are freaking out and selling out over lackluster earnings, in October no less. Gold drops as people need to raise cash. But if gold drops 1%. the market drops 3%. And consider this: if you sell your stocks and save your bacon, what do you do with your cash? Stay in cash and get eaten alive by inflation. Go to bonds and get no yield. Go to corporate junk bonds for yield in this market? I think not. There is only one destination for cash in a NIRP (that's Negative Interest Rate Policy because Zero ain't low enough for the Bernank!) environment: G-O-L-D. Sooner or later, the dimwits will figure out what we here at GSUS have known for years.

[Neuro]

wtf, why is everything dropping? With QE3, things should be going up...
More money to the manipulators, initially. Don't worry though. Fundamentals are improving, good time to add if you can now. The downside is minuscule, the upside is endless, in dollar terms.

[steyr_m]

Markets are freaking out and selling out over lackluster earnings, in October no less. Gold drops as people need to raise cash.

Key point there for me. Thanks bud.

[gunDriller]

the US $ index made its way back to the 79.9 area.

the Cartel, whose mandate is obviously currency manipulation, won't let 80 come this close without going for it - no f'ing way.

http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_usd_en_2.gif

does anybody know where one could Geek Out and get all the curves for the US $ index ? i wonder how often it's gotten to 79.9 without a push over 80, during the last 15 to 20 years.

it's not unlike a beach-ball, the more they push it down, the more force it pushes back with - and the more potential energy is embedded into the beach-ball ocean subsystem.

[Neuro]

the US $ index made its way back to the 79.9 area.

the Cartel, whose mandate is obviously currency manipulation, won't let 80 come this close without going for it - no f'ing way.

http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_usd_en_2.gif

does anybody know where one could Geek Out and get all the curves for the US $ index ? i wonder how often it's gotten to 79.9 without a push over 80, during the last 15 to 20 years.

it's not unlike a beach-ball, the more they push it down, the more force it pushes back with - and the more potential energy is embedded into the beach-ball ocean subsystem.
It really didn't go under 80, until the last 5 years...

http://itdataroom.com/blog_wp/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/usdx-1971-2009.png

[Neuro]

I have been trying to find a USDX chart for the last 5 years, without being able to find anything apart from minute charts, that doesn't show anything exact. But from what I have seen it seems like USD haven't been able to convincingly braking the 80 level for the last 2-3 years...

[gunDriller]

I have been trying to find a USDX chart for the last 5 years, without being able to find anything apart from minute charts, that doesn't show anything exact. But from what I have seen it seems like USD haven't been able to convincingly braking the 80 level for the last 2-3 years...

do you mean going up or going down ?

seems like it's been hovering between 78 and 84.

78 = happy stock market

84 = tantrum stock market.


and, except for a few times - pre-QE3 head-fakes, honest QE3 beginning of a reaction - PM's have been tracking with the stock market.

Up when the stock market is happy, Down when the market is in tantrum hand-wringing mode.

[Sparky]

I have been trying to find a USDX chart for the last 5 years, without being able to find anything apart from minute charts, that doesn't show anything exact. But from what I have seen it seems like USD haven't been able to convincingly braking the 80 level for the last 2-3 years...

Here's a link to a 3-year chart (Weekly View) and a 13-year point-and-figure chart.

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$usd

[LuckyStrike]

Markets are freaking out and selling out over lackluster earnings, in October no less. Gold drops as people need to raise cash. But if gold drops 1%. the market drops 3%. And consider this: if you sell your stocks and save your bacon, what do you do with your cash? Stay in cash and get eaten alive by inflation. Go to bonds and get no yield. Go to corporate junk bonds for yield in this market? I think not. There is only one destination for cash in a NIRP (that's Negative Interest Rate Policy because Zero ain't low enough for the Bernank!) environment: G-O-L-D. Sooner or later, the dimwits will figure out what we here at GSUS have known for years.

Exactly right.

I'm of the opinion that literally anything that is less abundant than dollars will be a fine place to store wealth, fence posts, livestock, stocks, heavy equipment anything. Some more than others obviously, but I don't keep cash for any longer than I have to it's either PM's, something tangible (preps) or stocks with a dividend when I get paid.

[mamboni]

Lest we forget the big picture:

3854

[beefsteak]

Markets are freaking out and selling out over lackluster earnings, in October no less.

Mamboni,
would like to suggest a couple "fundamental factors," reliable seasonals if you prefer, to your summation quoted above..

The reason why October is the most predictable months for this kind of action, for at least the last 15 if not 25 years is simply this:

The mutual fund mgmt crowd has to perform what is known as ANNUAL REPORT WINDOW DRESSING, in order to make their YE reports look like they are winners for managing OPM. So, October is dump'em month, because the reports INDUSTRY WIDE are due at the printers Nov 1, no exceptions.

Then the selling pressure lets up a bit, and then drives the losers back into oblivion for a second dive. Why? Because of the IRS wash rule. MFund mgrs --like the rest of us-- have to be OUT of an issue 30days before re-acquiring it, or else the IRS gives them a capital gains treatment as if they never sold in the first place and just maintained their longs all the way through this time period.

That is why "they" call this kind of action "risk off" or "risk aversion" time. Happens every year. Sometimes it is used as it is now, to hammer PMs as going along for the ride.

However, I see risk everywhere I look, pick a topic. Steyr_m is right, the QEternity spike in the stockmarket is yet to unfold. But unfold it will. Bernake or no Bernake. The die is cast.

[mamboni]

Mamboni,
would like to suggest a couple "fundamental factors," reliable seasonals if you prefer, to your summation quoted above..

The reason why October is the most predictable months for this kind of action, for at least the last 15 if not 25 years is simply this:

The mutual fund mgmt crowd has to perform what is known as ANNUAL REPORT WINDOW DRESSING, in order to make their YE reports look like they are winners for managing OPM. So, October is dump'em month, because the reports INDUSTRY WIDE are due at the printers Nov 1, no exceptions.

Then the selling pressure lets up a bit, and then drives the losers back into oblivion for a second dive. Why? Because of the IRS wash rule. MFund mgrs --like the rest of us-- have to be OUT of an issue 30days before re-acquiring it, or else the IRS gives them a capital gains treatment as if they never sold in the first place and just maintained their longs all the way through this time period.

That is why "they" call this kind of action "risk off" or "risk aversion" time. Happens every year. Sometimes it is used as it is now, to hammer PMs as going along for the ride.

However, I see risk everywhere I look, pick a topic. Steyr_m is right, the QEternity spike in the stockmarket is yet to unfold. But unfold it will. Bernake or no Bernake. The die is cast.

Thanks Beef! I learn al least one valuable thing, often more, almost every day here. We should see a nice bounce in the metals in December.

[Sparky]

FYI, November has been the best month for gold over the last decade.



http://www.zealllc.com/c2010/Zeal111910B.gif

See full discussion of seasonlity at http://www.zealllc.com/2010/goldseas5.htm

[gunDriller]

Yeeeeeeha !

http://yeeeeeeha.com/

another week of PM markets !


Going off on a tangent -
Yeeeeeeha.com is the website of Dan Gregoire, one of the lead guys in Pre-viz.

"Pre-viz" generally refers to the guys who sit down with a director to sketch out a movie. Basically, Pre-viz guys come from the top 1% of the top 1% of Animators.

Glad to see that Dan is hip to the bogus nature of the War on Terror -
"The War on Terror is Bogus
Posted on February 29th, 2008 by admin

As I have read stories and articles from around the world that don’t seem t have any significance I have to admit that this thought has always been in the back of my mind since 2001. Especially when you start to look at the pipelines from the Caspian and where our leadership came from. There’s so much information out there that links together but without proper context is seemingly unconnected. It is tricky to put together but this article does a very nice job."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2003/sep/06/september11.iraq

You don't often see the top guys in Hollywood telling the truth like this.


AND NOW, back to our regularly scheduled program -


Silver /\ ==> \/

Gold /\ <== \/

[undgrd]

We're falling off a cliff again

[BrewTech]

We're falling off a cliff again

http://www.gnu-glasses.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/captain-obvious.jpg

;)

[undgrd]

http://images.businessweek.com/cms/2012-08-31/0831_fiscalcliff_630x420.jpg

[Neuro]

http://images.businessweek.com/cms/2012-08-31/0831_fiscalcliff_630x420.jpg
That looks more like a dead cat bounce, the man was catapulted from the left a few hundred yards away, landed, just before the edge of the cliff, bounced off it, and the kinetic energy of his trajectory, dislodged part of the cliff, it looks like his prospects going forward isn't incredibly bright. (I have no idea if this is an appropriate analogy for the future market, we'll see. ;D)

[Down1]

$30.91
Rockets abound I see.

[gunDriller]

since the stock market didn't tank today, i was surprised to see gold and silver dip.

[MNeagle]

What's behind today's surge??

http://finviz.com/fut_image.ashx?gc.png&rev=634892678385023750 http://finviz.com/fut_image.ashx?si.png&rev=634892678385023750

[osoab]

What's behind today's surge??

http://finviz.com/fut_image.ashx?gc.png&rev=634892678385023750 http://finviz.com/fut_image.ashx?si.png&rev=634892678385023750

eur/usd move






http://www.finviz.com/fut_image.ashx?dx.png&rev=634892764148305000 (http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX)
http://www.finviz.com/fut_image.ashx?6e.png&rev=634892764148305000 (http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=6E)

[gunDriller]

What's behind today's surge??

http://finviz.com/fut_image.ashx?gc.png&rev=634892678385023750 http://finviz.com/fut_image.ashx?si.png&rev=634892678385023750

someone here must have sold a bit earlier this week. :)

or, it's the rockets.

actually, i posted a picture of an Estes model rocket in one of the hemp threads, a few days ago.

Coincidence ?

[Neuro]

someone here must have sold a bit earlier this week. :)

or, it's the rockets.

actually, i posted a picture of an Estes model rocket in one of the hemp threads, a few days ago.

Coincidence ?
I think not. You reap what you sow!

[gunDriller]

gold silver ratio has contracted. running about 50 right now.

[gunDriller]

$30.91
Rockets abound I see.

DANG !

$30.91 sounds like a deal.

QE4 is expected tomorrow - according to Goldman Sachs.

so is the Fed going to announce the extra official money printing, tomorrow, or not ?


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-seen-pumping-assets-4-050000764.html

"The Federal Reserve will amplify record accommodation tomorrow by announcing $45 billion in monthly Treasury buying that will push its balance sheet almost to $4 trillion, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.

Forty-eight of 49 economists predict the Federal Open Market Committee will purchase Treasuries to bolster an existing program to buy $40 billion in mortgage bonds each month. The panel pledged in October to continue that plan until the labor market improves "substantially."

"It's going to be massive and open-ended in size," said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York and a former New York Fed economist.

Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his FOMC colleagues will press on with purchases at least through the first quarter of 2014, according to the median estimate in the Dec. 7-10 survey. They are expanding the balance sheet beyond $2.86 trillion in a bid to spur growth and lower an unemployment rate of 7.7 percent.

"They view this stimulus as what's needed to sustain the economy" and reinforce improvements in industries such as autos and housing, said John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo & Co., the biggest U.S. home lender.

The FOMC gathers today for a two-day meeting in Washington and plans to release a statement on policy tomorrow at around 12:30 p.m. That will be followed by forecasts for growth, unemployment and inflation. Bernanke is scheduled to hold a press conference at 2:15 p.m., after release of the forecasts.

Operation Twist

The central bank this month is scheduled to end Operation Twist, in which it swaps $45 billion of short-term Treasuries each month for longer-term government debt. That program kept the total size of the balance sheet unchanged, while new Treasury purchases would expand it."

[Libertarian_Guard]

Holy Price Drop Batman

All today's gains (and then some) were wiped out real quick.

http://i49.tinypic.com/2zs8txc.jpg

[gunDriller]

BUMP !! :)

Why do you guys think prices are falling after the Fed just announced QE4, albeit under a different name ?

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/world-indexes/

As of Wednesday PM in the US, gold is below $1700, and silver below $33 - FALLING -

What the Fvck ?! - FALLING, after the Fed announces QE4.


The Fed announces at noon today that they're going to print $1.02 Trillion a year indefinitely, instead of just $480 Billion ... and the PM prices FALL ?!?!?!


WHAT IS GOING ON ?

Any ideas ? Yes, they could be manipulating - but it seems like there's more going on.

[Sparky]

Sometimes gold equities (mining companies) lead physical prices. Up 2.5% today while other equities were generally flat.

[Neuro]

BUMP !! :)

Why do you guys think prices are falling after the Fed just announced QE4, albeit under a different name ?

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/world-indexes/

As of Wednesday PM in the US, gold is below $1700, and silver below $33 - FALLING -

What the Fvck ?! - FALLING, after the Fed announces QE4.


The Fed announces at noon today that they're going to print $1.02 Trillion a year indefinitely, instead of just $480 Billion ... and the PM prices FALL ?!?!?!


WHAT IS GOING ON ?

Any ideas ? Yes, they could be manipulating - but it seems like there's more going on.
The Fed giveth and the Fed taketh! They can do that they own the planeth.

[osoab]

On sale this morning.

[mamboni]

There is still a lot of speculative money in gold: buy the rumor - sell the news. I know I am preaching to the choir when I say this: gold is the last best refuge for wealth preservation. It is obvious from the FOMC meeting that the FED is stuck in ZIRP until the cows come home. November just saw the biggest federal deficit on record, some $170 billion, in one frickin' month. Consider today's gold price a gift; because in a few months sub $1700 gold will look like a screaming bargain. I'm getting ready to make another big gold purchase. Do you really think I care whether I pay $1680, $1700 or $1750 when I know it's going to $5000? It's really simple: the dollar is a dead currency walking. If you stay in dollars, you are going to be destroyed in slow motion.

SAME OLD SHIT, DIFFERENT DAY: BANKERS SELL GOLD INTO LIGHT VOLUME TO TRIGGER CASCADING STOPS AND DROP GOLD PRICE.

THIS FROM REUTERS. i HAVE TO LAUGH WHEN ARTICLE SPECULATES THAT GOLD MARKET DISAPPOINTED BY LACK OF QE TO INFINITY ANNOUNCEMENT. THE FED WILL NOT STOP PRINTING UNTIL UNEMPLOYMENT IS BELOW 6.5%!!! THAT IS QE TO INFINITY BECAUSE WE WILL NEVER SEE UNEMPLOYMENT DROP IN THE US, NEVER.

Thu Dec 13, 2012 3:19am EST



* Stop-loss selling triggered as prices dropped below keylevel * Physical gold buying interest emerges below $1,700/oz * Coming up: U.S. retail sales, Nov; 1330 GMT (Updates prices) By Rujun Shen SINGAPORE, Dec 13 (Reuters) - Gold dropped about 1 percenton Thursday after the Federal Reserve linked its monetary policyto unemployment, raising concerns that future economic stimuluscould be limited. Gold benefits from easy monetary policy as it drivesinvestors who fear diminishing value in fiat currencies to seeksafety in hard assets such as bullion. Gold has risen nearly 9percent so far this year. The Fed said it plans to buy $45 billion in longer-termTreasuries each month on top of the $40 billion monthly purchaseof mortgage-backed securities, as expected, but set unemploymentand inflation thresholds for exit strategy. "This announcement is a bit confusing to gold investors asit linked policy to unemployment, etc.," said a Tokyo-basedtrader. "Perhaps the market wanted unlimited QE." Last month the U.S. unemployment rate dropped to a nearfour-year low of 7.7 percent, although the better number was theresult of a lower number of job-seekers. Spot gold dropped 1 percent to $1,693.80 an ounceearlier in the day, before paring some losses to stand at$1,699.20 by 0754 GMT. Fed's move to buy bonds had pushed upprices to a near two-week top of $1,723.01 on Wednesday. When prices dropped below the 100-day moving average above$1,705, stop-loss selling was triggered, traders said. The most-active U.S. gold futures contract lost asmuch as 1.3 percent to $1,695.5 an ounce, and recovered to$1,701.40. Nearly 38,000 lots already changed hands, higher thanwhat normally would be traded in Asian hours. Physical gold buying demand is expected to pick up afterprices fell below $1,700 level, traders said. "Physical demand seems to be supportive, but can't offsetall investor selling," said the Tokyo-based trader. GOLD SEEN BOUND IN A RANGE But gold is likely to remain rangebound, as many investorsare closing books for the year, while the difficult U.S. budgettalks keep them away from big bets. The negotiation could drag on past Christmas given sharpdifferences between congressional Republicans and the WhiteHouse on how to avert steep tax hikes and budget cuts. "The near term risk is a stronger dollar," said JeremyFriesen, commodity strategist at Societe Generale in Hong Kong."The 'fiscal cliff' is going right to the end, and that couldsupport the dollar and take some shine off gold." The dollar, seen as an ultimate safe haven, is likely toattract investors worried about the uncertainty in the U.S.fiscal situation. A stronger greenback pressures dollar-pricedcommodities by making them more expensive for buyers holdingother currencies. In other metals, U.S. silver fell more than 2percent to $32.88 an ounce, before paring losses to stand at$33.06. Spot silver, which dropped nearly 2 percent to$32.79 earlier in the session, was down 1.4 percent at $32.96. Spot platinum fell nearly 1 percent to $1,616.99,easing from $1,643.50 hit on Wednesday, its highest since Oct.19. Spot palladium eased to a one-week low of $679.72. Precious metals prices 0754 GMT Metal Last Change Pct chg YTD pct chg Volume Spot Gold 1699.20 -12.35 -0.72 8.66 Spot Silver 32.96 -0.48 -1.44 19.03 Spot Platinum 1616.99 -15.76 -0.97 16.08 Spot Palladium 684.47 -8.03 -1.16 4.90 COMEX GOLD FEB3 1701.40 -16.50 -0.96 8.59 37535 COMEX SILVER MAR3 33.06 -0.72 -2.14 18.43 10692 Euro/Dollar 1.3088 Dollar/Yen 83.51 COMEX gold and silver contracts show the most active months (Editing by Himani Sarkar)

[gunDriller]

I'm getting ready to make another big gold purchase. Do you really think I care whether I pay $1680, $1700 or $1750 when I know it's going to $5000? It's really simple: the dollar is a dead currency walking. If you stay in dollars, you are going to be destroyed in slow motion.

do you see any merit in buying silver under these conditions - as a currency with which to acquire more gold, in the future ?

$5000 gold will probably equate to a lower Gold-Silver ratio.


e.g. $17000 today will buy 10 ounces gold, or 500 ounces of silver.

if & when the GSR contracts to (for example) 25 (in correlation to $5000 gold), 500 ounces silver can be traded for 20 ounces of gold (nominally), or 18-19 (after spreads etc.)


the 3 downsides i can see to doing this -
* today's assumptions about future GSR may not pan out.
* the conversion can be a pain in the ass.
* at the time of conversion, if you sell silver at one dealer & buy gold at another, the chances of the transaction becoming visible to the US gov. increase. Uncle Shylock may want a cut of the action.

[mamboni]

do you see any merit in buying silver under these conditions - as a currency with which to acquire more gold, in the future ?

$5000 gold will probably equate to a lower Gold-Silver ratio.


e.g. $17000 today will buy 10 ounces gold, or 500 ounces of silver.

if & when the GSR contracts to (for example) 25 (in correlation to $5000 gold), 500 ounces silver can be traded for 20 ounces of gold (nominally), or 18-19 (after spreads etc.)


the 3 downsides i can see to doing this -
* today's assumptions about future GSR may not pan out.
* the conversion can be a pain in the ass.
* at the time of conversion, if you sell silver at one dealer & buy gold at another, the chances of the transaction becoming visible to the US gov. increase. Uncle Shylock may want a cut of the action.

This should make you laugh; the reason I am not buying more silver is because I have run out of space to store it securely - LOL.

[EE_]

There is still a lot of speculative money in gold: buy the rumor - sell the news. I know I am preaching to the choir when I say this: gold is the last best refuge for wealth preservation. It is obvious from the FOMC meeting that the FED is stuck in ZIRP until the cows come home. November just saw the biggest federal deficit on record, some $170 billion, in one frickin' month. Consider today's gold price a gift; because in a few months sub $1700 gold will look like a screaming bargain. I'm getting ready to make another big gold purchase. Do you really think I care whether I pay $1680, $1700 or $1750 when I know it's going to $5000? It's really simple: the dollar is a dead currency walking. If you stay in dollars, you are going to be destroyed in slow motion.

SAME OLD SHIT, DIFFERENT DAY: BANKERS SELL GOLD INTO LIGHT VOLUME TO TRIGGER CASCADING STOPS AND DROP GOLD PRICE.

THIS FROM REUTERS. i HAVE TO LAUGH WHEN ARTICLE SPECULATES THAT GOLD MARKET DISAPPOINTED BY LACK OF QE TO INFINITY ANNOUNCEMENT. THE FED WILL NOT STOP PRINTING UNTIL UNEMPLOYMENT IS BELOW 6.5%!!! THAT IS QE TO INFINITY BECAUSE WE WILL NEVER SEE UNEMPLOYMENT DROP IN THE US, NEVER.


What are you thinking about buying?
I'm looking at French and Swiss 20 francs, because I don't want anymore 1 ouncers
These coins are getting very popular. Gainesville sold out recently.
CNI still has them in Choice BU.
http://golddealer.com/about_bullion.html#AUFR20

[mamboni]

What are you thinking about buying?
I'm looking at French and Swiss 20 francs, because I don't want anymore 1 ouncers
These coins are getting very popular. Gainesville sold out recently.
CNI still has them in Choice BU.
http://golddealer.com/about_bullion.html#AUFR20

I only buy modern bullion coins. I'm planning on getting fractional GAEs, probably quarter ouncers.

[Son-of-Liberty]

This is the holiday beat down.

What a load of crap. Good time to buy if you have any cash.

[BarnkleBob]

Like Sinclair said "the Chairman, Institution & their policies" cannot be publicly embarassed.... how long did QE4 prop the markets? 4 hours? That in itself is embarassing ... hence todays raid to show the world that the Bernank is omnipotent & omniscience! What a joke...

[Sparky]

Fundamentals remain solidly intact.

Technical footings are also back on solid ground. The 50-day average crossed favorably over the 200-day average on September 20, signalling the end of the longer term correction off of the record gold price of $1920 established on 6 September 2011. This current drop is completely consistent with a reversion back toward the 200-day price (currently sitting at around $1660). So any price above that is technically sound. Remember, we have a rocket to $1920, and it takes a while to consolidate that and sift out all the speculators.

Now for the long-term perspective to keep everyone grounded:

Note what happened in early 2009 (below). The short term average crossed the long term average in early March 2009 as price moved back up toward $1000. It then had to retrace back to the 200-day average (around $875) before resuming it's longer term ascent. I suspect a similar thing is going on here. Don't be surprised at any moves back toward $1660.

Based on the seasonals (an my previous discussions), I'd expect a failed attempt at the record $1920 price by Spring 2013. Following the summer doldrums, the next big leg up ($2400?) might not take place until a year from now.

The bubble price ($3200-$10,000) is probably a couple of years removed from that, in say the 2016-2018 time frame. The longer it takes probably the higher it is. If the bubble were to happen next year, it would probably be capped at $2800 or so.

Total speculation on my part; take it with a grain of salt...

[EE_]

This is a sign we are getting there...the Gov and the Fed is in panic mode.
My dealer told me everyone is buying, only 5% is selling.

[Neuro]

This is a sign we are getting there...the Gov and the Fed is in panic mode.
My dealer told me everyone is buying, only 5% is selling.
I totally believe that, in physical bullion, which is why the premiums should go up soon, and the disconnect between physical price and spot will become bleeding obvious, to anyone whose only source of information isnt msnbbcnnfoxetc...

[mamboni]

I totally believe that, in physical bullion, which is why the premiums should go up soon, and the disconnect between physical price and spot will become bleeding obvious, to anyone whose only source of information isnt msnbbcnnfoxetc...

For what it is worth, single SAEs are selling now for $40-42 dollars on EBAY. That's almost a $10 spread between physical and paper silver. I have never seen such wide spreads before. Have any of you seen such big spreads in physical versus paper silver?

[Neuro]

For what it is worth, single SAEs are selling now for $40-42 dollars on EBAY. That's almost a $10 spread between physical and paper silver. I have never seen such wide spreads before. Have any of you seen such big spreads in physical versus paper silver?
Ebay is always higher, but I remember when silver was at around $10, in 2008, that E-bay was about 40% higher. Percentage wise that was higher than today, but in dollar terms I dont think it has been this high before...

[EE_]

Stopped by my local guy earlier. He had Swiss 20 Francs for $330 and 1/4 gold eagles for $457...that's what his prices are for me. (preferred customer)
Pretty good, no?
We'll see what prices do tomorrow...

[osoab]

Those franks are a good deal compared to the eagles. .1867 vs .25 1767.48/oz vs 1828/oz Almost a 2 oz of Ag savings.

[EE_]

Those franks are a good deal compared to the eagles. .1867 vs .25 1767.48/oz vs 1828/oz Almost a 2 oz of Ag savings.

I agree and I have no qualms about buying them. I prefer French roosters, but no gots today.
The 1/4 gold eagle price I quoted ($457) is pretty hard to beat anywhere though. CNI is at $466

Like I said, I'm done buying 1 ounce coins, so I have to take the best deal on fractionals I can find.

[Son-of-Liberty]

Ah ha ha ha ha ha!

The price has already half corrected from where it started this morning.

[gunDriller]

based on the wierd reaction to the announcement of QE4 ... i don't know what to think.


about where the price goes between now & the end of the year. will there be another sub-$30 buying opportunity for silver, related to profit taking and idiots like Jeff Christian talking down silver ?


i could be wrong, but what the heck, i will go out on a limb. i'm thinking there will be that sub-$30/$1700 buying opportunity, where G-S.us'ers and Central Banks load up - between now and December 31.

then, next year, i think the "game" among hedge funds (investors with short term investment outlooks) will be to profit from a price run-up. So in 2013, Gold goes to $2000, and Silver to $40+.

[Sparky]

...
Technical footings are also back on solid ground. The 50-day average crossed favorably over the 200-day average on September 20, signalling the end of the longer term correction off of the record gold price of $1920 established on 6 September 2011. This current drop is completely consistent with a reversion back toward the 200-day price (currently sitting at around $1660). So any price above that is technically sound. Remember, we have a rocket to $1920, and it takes a while to consolidate that and sift out all the speculators.
...

This morning's plunge was to $1672. Have not yet breached the $1660 mark.

[Neuro]

This morning's plunge was to $1672. Have not yet breached the $1660 mark.
The 200 DMA is still around $1660, at this point the chart looks remarkably similar to what it did in March 2009. Let's see if I can manage to paste a Kitco 5 year chart here...

http://gold-silver.us/forum/webkit-fake-url://BECC98A6-1392-4577-9EEC-2BDF44E90694/imagegif

No I didn't, but you can find the chart here:
http://www.kitco.com/charts/techcharts_gold.html

From March 2009 to September 2011 (2.5 years), we had a more than doubling of POG. If that were to be repeated we would have a gold price of around $3,500 in April May 2015. At a G/S ratio of 30, we wold see silver at close to $120. Seems like this is the trajectory we are on now...

[Sparky]

Second plunge to $1660.10 this afternoon. Almost comical in its precision. The mining equities simultaneously tested their interim lows from a couple of weeks ago. So prices have been brought to the technical brink; let's see if they hold there.

[Neuro]

Second plunge to $1660.10 this afternoon. Almost comical in its precision. The mining equities simultaneously tested their interim lows from a couple of weeks ago. So prices have been brought to the technical brink; let's see if they hold there.
I think it holds, and that it would be an excellent buy, right now! It ain't gonna be any cheaper than this, ever again!

[madfranks]

$1660 is certainly a tempting price! This coming from a guy who started buying under $600, I never thought I'd say $1660 was tempting!

[Libertarian_Guard]

http://i47.tinypic.com/34yp7yh.jpg


Down, down, down, down..........

[mamboni]

This gold and silver plunge is such in-your-face flip-you-the-bird manipulation by the FED in the face of a federal government demanding elimination of the debt limit and determined to never ever cut spending. And did I mention a escalating war in Syria-Turkey. I hope this price stays down because I will not be liquid for another 2 weeks. I am buying more gold. The dollar is a dead currency walking and anyone who cannot see this deserves to be financially raped by this corrupt government-bankster fascist sytem.

[gunDriller]

This gold and silver plunge is such in-your-face flip-you-the-bird manipulation by the FED in the face of a federal government demanding elimination of the debt limit and determined to never ever cut spending. And did I mention a escalating war in Syria-Turkey. I hope this price stays down because I will not be liquid for another 2 weeks. I am buying more gold. The dollar is a dead currency walking and anyone who cannot see this deserves to be financially raped by this corrupt government-bankster fascist sytem.


i think the Cartel is going to make an end-of-the-year "Run for the Border", with targets (for them) of $1600 gold, and $30 silver.

also worth noting, some PM shoppes have end-of-the-year sales, where margins are reduced and/or shipping fees waived.

last year these 2 things (Cartel BS + PM shoppe sales) combined to create some fantastic sales - Silver for $30 per ounce delivered.


also notably, Options Expiry is the week between Christmas & New Year's.

Trading volume tends to be lower then - so it's easier for the Cartel to manipulate prices.

And, "investing" organizations (e.g. hedge funds) who have to meet quarterly & yearly targets sell to lock in profits.

these 3 factors, in past year, have tended to combine to create buying opportunities. Of course, then there's the "day trader/ momentum chaser" mindset who see the "self-fulfilling prophecy" and also sell to lock in profits.


I remember significant price drops the last week of 2009 and 2011.

It may have happened in 2010, I was just super busy so didn't notice.


Dec. 27 Comex December gold futures last trading day
Dec. 27 Comex December silver futures last trading day

Dec. 27 = Thursday of next week.


Back up the Truck ! :)

http://media.treehugger.com/assets/images/2011/10/canada-tar-sands-01.jpg

[Down1]

Nice truck.

[steyr_m]

$1660 is certainly a tempting price! This coming from a guy who started buying under $600, I never thought I'd say $1660 was tempting!

I'm in the same boat too. I'm still looking at Silver since I don't have $1,600 laying around....

[osoab]

Palladium is holding nicely at the 700 range.

[Down1]

Will TPTB give us $2?.?? silver for Christmas ?
Mighty nice of them !

[Neuro]

Silver is right now at $31.11 exactly a dollar a gram. Gold is holding $1660...

[Libertarian_Guard]

http://i48.tinypic.com/ftdf8h.jpg



Clearly the short / mid term trend continues.

[slvrbugjim]

This gold and silver plunge is such in-your-face flip-you-the-bird manipulation by the FED in the face of a federal government demanding elimination of the debt limit and determined to never ever cut spending. And did I mention a escalating war in Syria-Turkey. I hope this price stays down because I will not be liquid for another 2 weeks. I am buying more gold. The dollar is a dead currency walking and anyone who cannot see this deserves to be financially raped by this corrupt government-bankster fascist sytem.

Making this full post as most are not members of GATA
From B Murphy

Historic Significance
"The interesting thing is they send the Queen into the vault, but they don’t send in independent auditors to actually determine who’s gold that is and whether it’s really gold." … James Turk
GO GATA!
What we are witnessing in the gold/silver markets at the moment is perhaps of historical significance. Never seen anything like it in terms of…
*The divergence of historic norm price action between the precious metals and other markets. You could not have found ONE person weeks ago (outside of The Gold Cartel) who would have called for the price of gold to be bombed with the euro moving up like has, making 7 ½ month highs in the process, and with other outside markets also supportive. No one would have called for the price of gold doing what it has after the QE forever announcements by BOTH the US and Japan.
*The growing intensity of waterfall bombing attacks by The Gold Cartel. That growing intensity has been a topic in this commentary for much of the year. Never before has The Gold Cartel been so obvious on a daily basis, with one of their patented maneuvers easily spotted. But, it is the latest major waterfall attacks (two in Asia and two on the Comex) over the past three to four weeks which tells us something profound is at work behind the scenes.
*Yesterday’s insidious attack on the gold price took the cake for audacity. For gold to tank, when it ought to have been moving higher based on the news and outside financial markets, suggests The Gold Cartel really is as desperate as alluded to here over many weeks. They are resorting to their blatant attacks for some hidden agenda which relates to severe financial distress which will surface in the months ahead, if not sooner. Gold is widely viewed as a barometer of US financial market health. So SHOOT THE MESSENGER.
This is what is coming and a reason The Gold Cartel is so obsessed with trashing the price of gold…
We’re Going to be in a New Recession-John Williams 19 December 2012
http://usawatchdog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/John-Williams-212x300.jpg

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (http://usawatchdog.com/)
Economist John Williams thinks the economy is in worse shape than most people think. In 2013, Williams predicts, "As this goes forward, you’re going to see we’re going to be in a new recession." The Federal Reserve announced last week it is now printing a total of $85 billion every month to reduce unemployment and stimulate the economy. Williams says, "That’s nonsense. . . . There’s nothing they can do to stimulate the economy." Williams has long contended the Fed is really just using the weak economy to continue to prop up the banking system. Williams says, "If the Fed wasn’t doing what it’s doing . . . I’d presume you’d be on the road to a banking system collapse. The banking system is still in trouble." Williams warns the "open-ended" printing of $85 billion a month ". . . will be part of what will eventually become hyperinflation." And if there is no deal on the so-called "fiscal cliff," then Williams expects "heavy selling pressure on the U.S. dollar." Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with John Williams of Shadowstats.com. (http://www.shadowstats.com/)
Video Link
http://usawatchdog.com/were-going-to-be-in-a-new-recession-john-williams/ (http://usawatchdog.com/were-going-to-be-in-a-new-recession-john-williams/)
-END-
When all of this begins to kick in next year, The Gold Cartel (money elite and political powers) want the price of gold at bay to deflect attention to their money printing in this NO SOLUTION environment. They want the investing crowd to relate to how gold just traded following the latest money printing announcements … that it can’t be counted on as a safe investment to hedge against the money printing. They want that barometer in broken mode and not to be where the action is.
WHY term this historical? Because, IMO, they are telegraphing what is coming by their raids on gold and silver. They are showing their desperation! Perhaps it takes being in the GATA camp to really appreciate what is going on here in terms of what The Gold Cartel gang is up to. But we do. What we are witnessing is more than unusual and sinister.
We have watched raids over the years, or just price corrections, but in almost every case there were corresponding fundamental reasons for those corrections, or at least the apologists for The Gold Cartel could point to some reason why gold was doing so poorly. These days they are just throwing up silly garbage to explain the price action, using ANYTHING that comes to mind.
The good news is Newton’s Law is not going away. The equal and opposite reaction to this perverse price trashing, will be slingshot moves to the upside for precious metals prices which will astound the investment community next year. The move up in silver will top that of the Hunt Brothers around 33 years ago.
So, as Jim Sinclair says, we can either be emotional about it, or take the time to understand what is going on re what sort of opportunity lies ahead. Staying on the case will pay off big time for those who stay the course.
Meanwhile, the affront to investors in the precious metals sector remains front and center. Gold was under pressure this morning, rallied and then was sold again.
Since JPM did not get what they wanted out of the silver price drop yesterday, they went back at it today in earnest. They dropped the price to $31.01 and all rallies off those lows were sold. Late in the day it dropped to $30.94. The bullies in the silver schoolyard are really throwing a tantrum.
Until this latest blasting of the silver price over the past week, it seemed to me that silver was in explosive mode. Must have used that term 7 or 8 times over the past month. Some explosion this is! What’s the deal?…
*The assessment is either still correct, or dead wrong.
*My bet is that it is so correct, JPM and allies are making one last raid to flush out as many spec longs as they can before the price goes berserk. When you have the kind of money they have at their disposal, that crowd can use the derivatives market to push prices in a certain direction over a short period of time. That pushing not only puts off some buyers, but encourages spec selling. However, if the physical market is in as good a shape as our camp thinks it is, these lowered prices will not stand. Will JPM runs for the hills, or the physical market just overpower them? Two closes over $35 ought to send the price towards $50 and then $100 an ounce. It will be an historic move.
*There is a fair chance one of the reasons for the raid on gold is to influence more silver spec longs to dump their positions. It is very possible that is how dire the situation is in silver. The silver open interest was 141,423 contracts yesterday, down only 594 contracts, and still above that key 140,000 contract level RR has been focusing on. It is very possible silver is that explosive, and JPM that desperate to cover. Only time will tell, with the proof of that in the pudding … a sharply rising price.
The gold open interest went UP 4009 contracts to 435,742, which meant The Gold Cartel was out in full force, OR, their efforts have attracted new spec shorts … could be a combination of both.
Mentioned to Dave from Denver the brutal nature of what they are doing. He came back with…
This is what it is Bill. It will probably get uglier before it hits absolute bottom and start up again.

Here's what I bet is happening right now - and it's been like this for a few years now. We've seen the cartel reduce their gold short significantly over the past 2-3 weeks, at the expense of the black box funds selling longs. I bet the black box funds are chasing the momentum lower here by increasing their shorts, further enabling the cartel to cover. That's why - I believe - the o/i increased yesterday. Let's see if I'm right with Friday's COT report. If I am, we are very close the end of this b.s.

As for silver, I don't know what say about that. The o/i is persisting north of 140k. It means that either the cartel is really going to try hard to shake out the fund longs or it may mean a completely different dynamic has developed. We won't know the answer to that until we see if there's several more cliff-drops in silver over the next few weeks.
***

The AM Fix was $1674.50. As happens so often, the PM Fix was lower at $1665.
Speaking of RR:
RSI of Euro Silver signalling this horsesh*t's likely almost done!..
Bill,
Some chart observations on this frustrating anomaly we are witnessing at present where even as the Euro appears to be breaking out ever higher, our Favourite Metals are being taking to the woodshed!
Below is the Chart of Euro Silver with it’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) below. Note how grossly oversold it is now on a daily basis! In fact as I write this, the Euro is up another 60 odd ticks and Hi-Ho’s down further, which has pushed the RSI down below 28 territory!

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2012/Midas/Midas1219A.gif As you can see Since 2005 there have been some 13 other incidences when the RSI has been below 30.
Below I’ve taken this RSI Chart and applied it to the Standard (Dollar denominated) Silver Price.

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2012/Midas/Midas1219B.gif Now for the clear facts:
1) Note on every other occasion such oversold conditions have almost immediately led to an arrest in the fall in the Price followed by a short term bounce, although on a couple of occasions, most notably 5 and 6 in 2008, the RSI plunged further to circa 20 before a fall in the Silver Price was arrested!
2) In the majority of incidences, with 2 main exceptions (5,6) the Price either
(i) Coincided directly with a spike multi-month low (1,3,7,8,9,11) and exceptional positive returns in the months directly thereafter
(ii) Coincided directly with the arrest of any Price Fall (2,10), enjoying a bounce of some 10-20% over the post ceding few weeks thereafter
(iii) Coincided close to a near term bottom in the Silver Price (4,12,13), ensuring a suitable positive return of 10-30% in 16 weeks or less
3) It must be remembered that the incidences of 5 and 6 coincided with the panic and chaos of the 2nd half of 2008. And even so, on each occasion there was a suitable near term bounce in the Price Of Silver before another collapse in prices ensued.
On the evidence above history would therefore suggest that this near term anomaly in Euro Terms and correction in Silver Price is likely to bottom out very shortly, and a reasonable bounce is highly likely in the very near term which may well coincide with a multi-month low for the Price. In fact it would be unprecedented if the bounce was not atleast of a 10% calibre, which puts Hi-Ho back up into the $34-35 range from here,
Of course we may be seeing the same technical breakdown (5,6) we witnessed in 2008 although further analysis suggests that this scenario is even more unlikely.
Below I’ve included the same graph as above, but adding the movement of the Euro (Xeu) beneath:

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2012/Midas/Midas1219C.gif The incidents of 5 and 6 coincided with a collapse in the Euro, whilst on this occasion the Euro has been rallying strongly and appears to be on the cusp of breaking higher. In other words, the reason the Euro Silver Price is so over sold at present is not that Silver is collapsing in price faster than the Euro, but because the Euro is rallying whilst Silver is falling.
This is very significant in my book, because it would be truly unprecedented for a further collapse of the PM Sector to occur under a multi-month Dollar decline. We have witnessed a number of short term anomalies such as now within this Bull Run with the Euro and the PM’s, but never for more than a few weeks if memory serves me well.
In fact it’s better than that, If you study the chart again, any incidence when the RSI has dropped below 30, and has preceded a multi-month rally in the Euro, it has always shown startling returns on a 6-9 month basis (2,3,7,9).
I guess a large part of the question is whether we’re on the cusp of another multi-month run on the Dollar? In which case, should it really come as a surprise to any of us to see the PM Sector attacked just prior?!?
All Food for Thought,
Kind regards,
Rich (Live from 'The Bridge of the Silver Rocket Ship') And if one thought that the charts below were setting off alarm bells on traders desks, Take a look at where we are on the Euro Gold RSI at present,

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2012/Midas/Midas1219D.png I haven’t the time to put the full research in like my correspondence earlier, but looking back through the longer term chart you can see this has if ever been more oversold on this basis!

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2012/Midas/Midas1219E.png Wouldn’t surprise me if we see the near term bottom in today on this basis,
In fact it would surprise me if we don’t within the next 48 hours!
***

[osoab]

wilver taken to the woodshed again.

[madfranks]

Silver's under $30!!!

[1970 silver art]

Silver ended up breaking $33.50 on the downside today (closed today at $33.48) with the very likely scenario (in my opinion) that it will go down to the $30-$31 range in the very near future. I feel that we will see sub-$30 silver before with the possibility of it retesting the $26 support level before this year is over. Whether silver breaks $26 on the downside will depend on how bad the Euro crisis gets. I feel that the European situation will be the major wildcard that will play an important factor on how far down that silver will go IMO. We will see. 3819Silver is currently at $29.95 as I type this. It is at sub-30 and I am expecting to see silver retest the $26 support level very soon. There is still more downside to go for silver IMO.

[undgrd]

You think silver will break the 1 year low? Is the Euro crisis still the reason?

[Son-of-Liberty]

Feels like I am trying to beat the casino at their own game. I expected PM's to rally higher this november, december especially with QE 4.

This price action is BS.

[madfranks]

Good call Josey! You really are the silver prophet!

[Sparky]

So, a sharp V-bounce back over the 200DMA off this technical breakdown would have implied today as the bottom, but we're not really seeing this. With trading volume getting lighter into the holidays, it's makes price manipulation even easier. So for those concerned about near-term prices, there could be some rough times over the next couple of weeks.

Sub-$30 not a big surprise, but I wasn't really expecting a test of $26, so let's see if Josey ends up getting that call correct. I guess that would be good news for silver art bar collectors!

[mamboni]

Feels like I am trying to beat the casino at their own game. I expected PM's to rally higher this november, december especially with QE 4.

This price action is BS.

Absolutely! Nothing has changed.

I am buying gold in a couple of weeks. I really don't care if I have to pay spot $1600, $1700 or $1750. Gold is going much much higher. When I think back, I bought gold at $400, $600, $800, $900, $1000 and $1200 and at each price point I can kick myself now for not buying more at the time. You have to put your faith in fundamentals over manipulation in the long run. I look at the dollar as script needed to pay taxes and expenses and day to day needs. I look at gold and silver as my true store of wealth beyond the reach of a rapacious government. As for gold, to quote the imminent Goldfinger "I welcome any enterprise that will increase my stock, which is considerable."

[1970 silver art]

You think silver will break the 1 year low? Is the Euro crisis still the reason?I think that is possible that we could break the $26 support level on silver as early as the end of this year or early 1Q 2013. I am not sure. The Euro Crisis is still is a factor but there is another factor and that is the fiscal cliff issue. Failure for Congress and the WH to reach a deal on this could put more downward pressure on silver. "falling" of the fiscal cliff will probably lead to another US recession which would lead to slowdown in industrial demand for silver which in turn could make the silver price go down further and possibly break $26 on the downside. This is all a WAG since I really do not know what is going to happen to the future price of silver. Of course JPM could contunue to push the price down further. We will have to see how things play out.

[Libertarian_Guard]

http://i46.tinypic.com/28u2urb.jpg

Sub $30 silver!

[Libertarian_Guard]

Absolutely! Nothing has changed.

I am buying gold in a couple of weeks. I really don't care if I have to pay spot $1600, $1700 or $1750. Gold is going much much higher. When I think back, I bought gold at $400, $600, $800, $900, $1000 and $1200 and at each price point I can kick myself now for not buying more at the time. You have to put your faith in fundamentals over manipulation in the long run. I look at the dollar as script needed to pay taxes and expenses and day to day needs. I look at gold and silver as my true store of wealth beyond the reach of a rapacious government. As for gold, to quote the imminent Goldfinger "I welcome any enterprise that will increase my stock, which is considerable."





http://i49.tinypic.com/qmyq6w.jpg

[gunDriller]

http://i49.tinypic.com/qmyq6w.jpg

that's the whole thing about investing wisely:

so you don't have to worry.

investing wisely is basically a form of stress management.


i would say, buying 'Wilver' at $26 or $30 an ounce are both cases of investing wisely.

or, like Mamboni said, gold @ $1650, $1600, $1700 - all cases of investing wisely.

[hoarder]

The law of supply and demand strikes again! What is the supply of paper metal? Unlimited!

[gunDriller]

is it normal for the US mint to stop producing Silver Eagles at the end of the year - as they have recently done this year ?

i'm not sure if that is a sign of silver shortage, or a normal 'holiday slowdown' thing.


now that the $30 mark has been breached for Silver (into the 29's), i think the Cartel will make a run for $28 - today Friday 12-21-12.

if not $28.00, into the $28's, e.g. $28.50.

they did a fairly impressive job yesterday, from $31 down to $29.70.

[hoarder]

Tulving is now sold out of 90% and 40%. I don't remember him ever being sold out except in 2010 just before the big run up.

http://www.tulving.com/goldbull.html

But there is still a lot of paper silver around.

[Sparky]

So, a sharp V-bounce back over the 200DMA off this technical breakdown would have implied today as the bottom, but we're not really seeing this. With trading volume getting lighter into the holidays, it's makes price manipulation even easier. So for those concerned about near-term prices, there could be some rough times over the next couple of weeks.

Sub-$30 not a big surprise, but I wasn't really expecting a test of $26, so let's see if Josey ends up getting that call correct. I guess that would be good news for silver art bar collectors!

About 7 weeks since this post. In fact, the failure to see a V-bounce did portend that we had not convincingly bottomed. This was a high volume low for gold at $1635, so it looks like this price will have to be re-visited. It got down to $1643 this morning. As for stocks, it looks like we will be re-visiting the lows of May 2012.

I don't have a good feel for whether these tests will come soon, or whether they will await the typical seasonal bottoming of gold in the June/July time frame.

Click to enlarge:

4432

[madfranks]

Do you think the recent red in the metals is because the stock market is testing it's highs again and folks are rallying it up?

[Sparky]

Do you think the recent red in the metals is because the stock market is testing it's highs again and folks are rallying it up?
It seems like the correlation between the two has been weak in recent weeks and months, so no, I don't think so.

People should understand how speculative the PM market is. There are extraordinary fundamentals that have driven the price of gold from $250 to $1900; they remain in place, and will likely bring the price to $2400-$3200 without any financial system breakdown or swift currency devaluation.

However, the market is small enough that big players can push the price around and prey upon the sentiment of smaller investments. They were able to make investors euphoric in 2011. Now they are trying to discourage them. They want to start the next cycle at the lowest price possible. This is done through a series of dashed hopes, over many months. They're looking for a capitulation breakdown.

A positive sign would be for gold to wander down to $1630, then break down into the upper $1500's, followed by a V-spike up to indicate that the big players have reversed their positions. Following the near-bubble euphoria in 2011, we've needed at least an 18-month consolidation to clean out this cycle. We are now in Month 17.

[madfranks]

Excellent analysis Sparky. I'm glad someone here is discussing these fundamentals, because I sure as hell couldn't do it.

[gunDriller]

it's 9:59 AM Eastern time.

what is the Cartel's marching orders for the day ?

10 AM beat-down ? 11 AM beat-down ?

[Sparky]

As expected gold has breached the $1630-$6535 range, but there has been no rebound response (yet). This would indicate that we're going to see sub-$1600 before the next prolonged up cycle toward the record high.

Interesting that the mining equities are up ~1% with gold down and the general market flat. The equities have a lot of ground to make up on bullion. As I said in Post #233, the HUI really needs to visit the high volume 373 swing point before this prolonged downward cycle can reverse. So a plausible scenario at this point would be the metal breaking below $1600 while the HUI re-tests the 373 level. This could could also coincide with silver dropping far enough below $30 (say, $26-$28 or so) to test the nerve of current holders.

Of course, gold and silver have brighter days ahead. But after such breathtaking moves in 2011, you really need a major turnover in ownership before starting the next cycle in earnest, which is achieved through frightful plunges to shake out any remaining weak hands.

[Neuro]

As expected gold has breached the $1630-$6535 range, but there has been no rebound response (yet). This would indicate that we're going to see sub-$1600 before the next prolonged up cycle toward the record high.

Interesting that the mining equities are up ~1% with gold down and the general market flat. The equities have a lot of ground to make up on bullion. As I said in Post #233, the HUI really needs to visit the high volume 373 swing point before this prolonged downward cycle can reverse. So a plausible scenario at this point would be the metal breaking below $1600 while the HUI re-tests the 373 level. This could could also coincide with silver dropping far enough below $30 (say, $26-$28 or so) to test the nerve of current holders.

Of course, gold and silver have brighter days ahead. But after such breathtaking moves in 2011, you really need a major turnover in ownership before starting the next cycle in earnest, which is achieved through frightful plunges to shake out any remaining weak hands.
I'm not selling unless silver goes below $25!

[Sparky]

I'm not selling unless silver goes below $25!

PM me when you are ready to sell at that price!

[Neuro]

PM me when you are ready to sell at that price!
Send me the cash now, and I'll send you the silver when it goes under $25! ;D

[Sparky]

Send me the cash now, and I'll send you the silver when it goes under $25! ;D

Excellent. I'll take 4 trillion ounces please:

http://www.significancemagazine.org/SpringboardWebApp/userfiles/sig/image/ChampkinUploads/Zimbabwe_$100_trillion_2009_Obverse%281%29.jpg (http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=zimbabwe+dollar&source=images&cd=&docid=zuH2tufGSTqXqM&tbnid=UheYR9H2aMtybM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.significancemagazine.org%2Fde tails%2Fwebexclusive%2F1379025%2FBig-numbers-and-big-debts_.html&ei=vlsdUaKaGqm30gGz_oGoAw&bvm=bv.42452523,d.dmQ&psig=AFQjCNEFVENV4LJXxlz3ApCqCN8C-qFXug&ust=1360964870520023)

[Neuro]

Excellent. I'll take 4 trillion ounces please:

http://www.significancemagazine.org/SpringboardWebApp/userfiles/sig/image/ChampkinUploads/Zimbabwe_$100_trillion_2009_Obverse%281%29.jpg (http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=zimbabwe+dollar&source=images&cd=&docid=zuH2tufGSTqXqM&tbnid=UheYR9H2aMtybM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.significancemagazine.org%2Fde tails%2Fwebexclusive%2F1379025%2FBig-numbers-and-big-debts_.html&ei=vlsdUaKaGqm30gGz_oGoAw&bvm=bv.42452523,d.dmQ&psig=AFQjCNEFVENV4LJXxlz3ApCqCN8C-qFXug&ust=1360964870520023)

Oy vey!

[Sparky]

As expected gold has breached the $1630-$6535 range, but there has been no rebound response (yet). This would indicate that we're going to see sub-$1600 before the next prolonged up cycle toward the record high.

Interesting that the mining equities are up ~1% with gold down and the general market flat. The equities have a lot of ground to make up on bullion. As I said in Post #233, the HUI really needs to visit the high volume 373 swing point before this prolonged downward cycle can reverse. So a plausible scenario at this point would be the metal breaking below $1600 while the HUI re-tests the 373 level. This could could also coincide with silver dropping far enough below $30 (say, $26-$28 or so) to test the nerve of current holders.

Of course, gold and silver have brighter days ahead. But after such breathtaking moves in 2011, you really need a major turnover in ownership before starting the next cycle in earnest, which is achieved through frightful plunges to shake out any remaining weak hands.

Plunged below $1600 ($1596). On the GLD, there was quite a bit of volume at the bottom, with a lot of possession changing hands. If this was the bottom, we'd like to see most of the price loss regained this afternoon, with continued high volume. The same goes for the mining equities. HUI didn't reached the target 373, which I was hoping would happen. It got to 378. It would be nice to see one more spike down to that level to completely clean house and move on. Let's see what the follow-through is this afternoon.

[Son-of-Liberty]

Hopefully all the doubters have capitulated. I am tired of waiting.

[Sparky]

Hopefully all the doubters have capitulated. I am tired of waiting.

Based on this afternoon's flat price and diminishing volume, they have not. The big players are not stepping in at this price. They want a lower price. Their job is to discourage current holders in order to get a lower price. They want you to be tired of waiting.

So, it looks like we're going down to the next level. The next high volume swing point was $1565 on 14 December 2011. Later that month on December 29, the price bottomed at $1520. We're likely to see one of those two prices. The December low represents the post-record low so far. If I had to guess, I think the $1565 would be more likely, since historically a new low is not typically set this far out in time (17 months) from the previous high.

So get yourselves emotionally prepared for a drop to at least $1565. For those of you who don't care about the short term because only the long term matters, nothing has changed for the long term.

[Rubberchicken]

Appreciate your analysis Sparky I rely on people like you to tell me whats really going on with the gold moves. Are you thinking things should look much different by the end of March? Not looking for a trade opportunity just curious what your crystal ball says.
Also here is an interesting read, you may see some familiar names. http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/4460/setup-big-trade

[Sparky]

Appreciate your analysis Sparky I rely on people like you to tell me whats really going on with the gold moves. Are you thinking things should look much different by the end of March? Not looking for a trade opportunity just curious what your crystal ball says.
Also here is an interesting read, you may see some familiar names. http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/4460/setup-big-trade

Most of the prolonged reversals have begun with a bottom in early July, so my instinct is to target that. But I'm not very confident since the seasonal cycle has been turned on it's head these last 18 months. March has typically been more of a topping season, so the seasonals are off track. Heck, maybe it will be a bottom this year. Regardless, I'm simply resigned to the fact that we're going to see the $1520-$1565 range, so as to not have it be an emotional strain along the way. That's my real recommendation for everyone else who follows PM price movement.

Silver price is tougher to get a read on; not nearly as well-behaved as gold. It usually takes a bigger percentage hit than gold, so think in the $26.xx ballpark. If you already have your base stack in place, I'd hold out for the fire sale at that level.

[Sparky]

Driving toward the target $1520-$1565 range. Would like to see a viscous spike down to really clean house.

[mamboni]

I just doubled my stake in SWC adding 2000 shares - it is a fantastic mining company - very diversified revenues. I also bought 2000 more shares of CEF. Trying to time these markets is fruitless. You have to buy the fundamentals, take advantage of these wonderful buying opportunities, and be patient. The laws of economics have not been suspended - they have merely been temporarily distorted. Time and patience are your allies.

[madfranks]

Exactly. The fundamentals have not changed, actually I'm excited at this opportunity, it's going on sale!

[osoab]

Au back to even with Pt.