Is the low in?

[Serpo]

The turd seems to think it is...........maybe..........


http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3797/end-near

[ximmy]

I think so, went to buy today but little to none available.

[Sparky]

The bottom will be in when you can't find articles claiming that the bottom is in.

[Silver Rocket Bitches!]

It's always the bottom until the inevitable...


2807

[Serpo]

http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/93775585?access_key=key-5a6dkauk982epd6jt9n

[Spectrism]

I don't think so.... not quite yet.

It has not broken up from its downtrend.

What is affecting the paper price of metals?

1. Euro crashing ---> dollar stronger ---> dollar buys more
2. Economic disaster ---> cash being sucked up by debt
3. No new buyers coming in

What would make the price rise?

1. Central banks (including US) printing in panic
2. New demand from big money- like China
3. Decrease in supply


Right now, it seems to be primarily a paper game of Euro versus the dollar. This could go on for a couple weeks more.

[Twisted Titan]

Unless I was doing a big purchase 10k + it is of little consequence

Its all realitive any way...as the price gets slammed the premium rises or goes into the back room.

[Spectrism]

The paper price has to stay down for a while in order for physical to drop. Anyone who bought "fresh" silver (or gold) will not want to dump it at a loss. The nice thing about metals, savage though they be, is they store very well and have a great shelf life.

[mamboni]

1. Euro crashing ---> dollar stronger ---> dollar buys more
2. Economic disaster ---> cash being sucked up by debt
3. No new buyers coming in

What would make the price rise?

1. Central banks (including US) printing in panic
2. New demand from big money- like China
3. Decrease in supply


Right now, it seems to be primarily a paper game of Euro versus the dollar. This could go on for a couple weeks more.

The EURO will bifurcate into a NORDIC Euro which may appreciate and a LATIN/PIIGS Euro which will certainly depreciate into individual soveriegn currencies. These will collapse in value. So at present the US dollar is strengthening and is viewed as the last refuge of paper wealth. This depresses the dollar price of gold, though the Euro price of gold has been very resilent - an important distinction. Also note that gold is up relative to crude oil - another important point.

As to your last three points (what would make the gold price rise)?

First, the US FED never stopped monetizing and is buying 80% of Treasury debt now. So we are already in a technical debt default. But the world markets react to Bernanke's words, not his actions. This is a temporary state of affairs. There is very strong demand for physical bullion, from China, India and other eastern nations. It is intensifying. Gold supply is flat or in decline. In fact, the only country that has increased production significantly is China, and China has prohibited export of it's gold. So world gold supply minus China has been going down since 2001.

The paper and physical prices of gold and silver have bifurcated. The holders of physical gold and silver are in a strong position and history and trends are on their side. The paper prices are an entirely different matter, being unstable, unpredictable and mainly a problem for those who trade the metals. At some point, the paper prices must begin to recorrelate with the physical prices or the COMEX and London will be emptied of their gold and that will be the end of the Anglo-American banking system.

Hold on to your metal. Buy more, if you can find any.

[gunDriller]

Unless I was doing a big purchase 10k + it is of little consequence

Its all realitive any way...as the price gets slammed the premium rises or goes into the back room.

very true.

if you're spending $1000, the difference between $30 & $32 spot price silver is maybe 1 round.

assuming $10 shipping - leaving a $990 budget -

silver @ 32 with $1 spread ... $33 each ... 30 rounds.

silver @ 31 ... $32 each ... 30.94 rounds - not quite enough for 31 rounds.

silver @ 30 ... $31 each ... 31.94 rounds - etc.


OK, so looks like the difference is 1.94 rounds.


i can't say "the low is in" because China is happy to let the banksters hang themselves.

they could drive Ag to $26 - maybe.

re Au - China bought 100 tons in one month recently. that means they bought 50% of world production that one month. one other month recently it was 64 tons. China has made a shift recently from buying 10% of world production to buying about 1/3 of world production.

listening to Harvey Organ - he describes how the banksters are racing around trying to fill orders at the low price, only to be told by "old friends" - "sorry, can't help ya."

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/

[mamboni]

very true.

if you're spending $1000, the difference between $30 & $32 spot price silver is maybe 1 round.

assuming $10 shipping - leaving a $990 budget -

silver @ 32 with $1 spread ... $33 each ... 30 rounds.

silver @ 31 ... $32 each ... 30.94 rounds - not quite enough for 31 rounds.

silver @ 30 ... $31 each ... 31.94 rounds - etc.


OK, so looks like the difference is 1.94 rounds.


i can't say "the low is in" because China is happy to let the banksters hang themselves.

they could drive Ag to $26 - maybe.

re Au - China bought 100 tons in one month recently. that means they bought 50% of world production that one month. one other month recently it was 64 tons. China has made a shift recently from buying 10% of world production to buying about 1/3 of world production.

listening to Harvey Organ - he describes how the banksters are racing around trying to fill orders at the low price, only to be told by "old friends" - "sorry, can't help ya."

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/

To Gundriller and Twisty:

You know I love you guys, I really do. But worrying about small price differences in silver before buying physical at this time is akin to the guy obsessing about the price of parachutes while the plane he is flying in 2 miles up is out of fuel and running on vapors (and the pilot is a crazy bald professor with a beard who keeps telling everyone to sit down and buckle up and all is OK).

[JDRock]

what he said ^^^^

[mamboni]

listening to Harvey Organ - he describes how the banksters are racing around trying to fill orders at the low price, only to be told by "old friends" - "sorry, can't help ya."

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/

From Harvey "the Organ:"

"In physical news we witnessed that Soros quadrupled his investment in gold through the GLD. Gold has also entered into a front end backwardation which will be discussed by Ken Weiner."

[chad]

i tried to buy physical yesterday. all sold out.

[gunDriller]

To Gundriller and Twisty:

You know I love you guys, I really do. But worrying about small price differences in silver before buying physical at this time is akin to the guy obsessing about the price of parachutes while the plane he is flying in 2 miles up is out of fuel and running on vapors (and the pilot is a crazy bald professor with a beard who keeps telling everyone to sit down and buckle up and all is OK).


it's just a game.

i'm working on the Chicken Squawk PM Price Drop Early Warning System (CSPMPDEWS).

i noticed one day i was about 100 yards away from the house planting, and the chickens started squawking real loud. i thought, "yeah, yeah, hold on", and worked another 10 minutes until i came to a convenient stopping point. then went & got them some goodies from the fridge & took a look at the markets.

Sure enough, they were squawking right at the time of the day's low, like $30 that day. by the time i got inside, it was off the low, up to $30.20. i had to wonder if the Chickens were Channeling the markets.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RRD7-UQNDf8

[mamboni]

i tried to buy physical yesterday. all sold out.

Gold or hookers?;D

[sirgonzo420]

Gold or hookers?;D

Stoves.

[mamboni]

Physical bullion demands substantial premiums on Ebay:

http://gold-silver.us/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=2810&d=1337273834

2810

[StreetsOfGold]

Physical bullion demands substantial premiums on Ebay:

http://gold-silver.us/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=2810&d=1337273834

2810

Is that you > nubBABALogna

Strange that you would have the word babal in your ebay: username

[mamboni]

Is that you > nubBABALogna

Strange that you would have the word babal in your ebay: username

Nah, that's not me. But I like the name!

[horseshoe3]

Looks like the low might be in for now. This would be a first for me - buying near the bottom of a dip. Usually I wait too long and buy on hte way back up.

[Serpo]

http://www.brotherjohnf.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/z051712silver.jpghttp://www.brotherjohnf.com/33289/ (http://www.brotherjohnf.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/z051712silver.jpg)
http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/clip_image0025_thumb.jpg (http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/clip_image00251.jpg)




unless of course a wheel falls off..............






(http://www.brotherjohnf.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/z051712silver.jpg)

[JJ.G0ldD0t]

yeah well..


TPTB apparently have no shortage of fat ladies.

[Serpo]

yeah well..


TPTB apparently have no shortage of fat ladies.


Dosnt look as though she is singing just yet.........

[Spectrism]

That may be the bottom... but I don't think so. We are still in a short-term down trend since 2/29/2012. This blip up for the day is not even back to the average point of the regression line in this downward trend. Gold has been in a downward channel since 9/6/2011 and silver since 8/22/2011, bouncing up and down fairly wildly.

The Euro is still tracking sharply downward with no inflection and it could get much worse. The economy is still sucking. No sign yet that the printing presses have been turned loose.

[gunDriller]

That may be the bottom... but I don't think so. We are still in a short-term down trend since 2/29/2012. This blip up for the day is not even back to the average point of the regression line in this downward trend. Gold has been in a downward channel since 9/6/2011 and silver since 8/22/2011, bouncing up and down fairly wildly.

The Euro is still tracking sharply downward with no inflection and it could get much worse. The economy is still sucking. No sign yet that the printing presses have been turned loose.


i agree the economy is sucking worldwide.

but the US gov., the EU, etc. are definitely printing. they don't always announce it formally, and give it a name like "QE".

[Sparky]

This will be the bottom if all the big banks want it to be the bottom.

There was a lot of volume today. So some of the big players might be getting ready to turn things around.

[Serpo]

With continued uncertainty in markets around the world, today Ben Davies, CEO of Hinde Capital wrote the following piece exclusively for King World News. Davies believes the gold and silver liquidation is over: “I humbly believe the seller is done. For one week there has been several but mainly one entity selling Comex gold futures, as well as some physical to liquidate on the open and closes. This suggest to us it was a CTA commodity type fund. They use volume areas of the day to transact.”“The sell-off in gold is reminiscent of the 2008 deleveraging process but it is more similar in dynamics to 2012 when a notable fund manager had to sell his gold/ ETF holdings. There were buyers of course, seller and buyer volumes must match. But the need to sell overwhelmed the need to buy.



When you have redemptions time is against you to liquidate, so it becomes a case of sell at any price as time becomes finite. Gold buyers picked up some bargains then and they will now.



Before FOMC minutes two nights ago the seller was back at the close. And then the FOMC minutes changed the dynamic of market with the mention by some members that QE would be back if they saw renewed economic weakness. This is the association for us all of why the market stopped going down but in truth the seller was done.



Like the December experience, once the seller is done, the market will snap back. We run intraday correlations just to observe if markets are starting to fibrillate against each other. We could see that risk assets were diverging and SPX was no longer moving with a 1.0 correlation with gold and silver. We took this as a positive sign that the precious metals were decoupling from risk assets.



The seller was being soaked up by multiple buyers. But all week we saw no significant Asian buying until two nights ago when the market went straight up yesterday on the open of the Asian morning.



We run a myriad of indicators to assess trends and where we are in trend. We also use 5 indicators for sentiment and created a weighted index – one of the indicators has never been this low EVER in 12 years -- a level I had never seen.



Based on even past but not quite as bearish readings the next 3 months have been some of the highest returns in gold market of the magnitude of 15-20%. So we can potentially expect an even greater magnitude. In all currencies but particularly in sterling terms I particularly would like to be long gold now.



We are currently writing a report on the UK that demonstrates the fiscal position will soon not be tolerated by the markets. A fiscal crisis could spell a currency crisis. People are walking EYES WIDE SHUT in this country. Spain is irretrievable and the exposure of UK banks to Europe is still too high.



We are surprised there is not more widespread withdrawal of money from banks in Europe as, after all, money in circulation is but a small percentage of demand deposits – so availability of physical money is a real issue should depositors rationally choose to withdraw money and place under the mattress.



In gold, in USD, we need to see gold create value above 1600 to 25 for a few weeks and then we will continue to migrate on a bullish trend higher. There is an ever-present systemic risk growing in Europe, plus severe doubts about JPM to contain their issues – so a coordinated effort by central banks to backstop the global economy draws nearer.



This eventuality would see gold trade much higher than the low 1600s in the next few weeks. Any fund manager worth his salt knows the first loss number presented by JPM is not the last but what will final tally be and what risk to the financial system? By observing credit markets and positioning we can see it is not pretty. Others are taking the other side of this risk. If it stinks, it can get really foul. Well, it really stinks.



I would add that gold volatility across volatility term structure has risen – I suspect there are short gamma positions in the gold market that in this scenario act like a short position on gold. If we look at other markets – credit indices and equity volatility -- we can see there is risk of higher volatility. This will drive up gold volatility and heighten positioning risk in market.”



To read a blog on the mining sector by Mark Mahaffey the co-founder of Hinde Capital, click on the following link: http://blog.hindecapital.com/?p=357http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/5/18_Ben_Davies_-_The_Gold_%26_Silver_Liquidation_is_Over.html

[Spectrism]

So he said it could go up or down.... but when they start to pump money (and that is an IF) then metals skyrocket.

It is all about timing and factors. If people- governments, banks, etc... need to pay off debt, won't they sell assets, like gold? If the stock market begins to crash... and that may happen soon.... won't that drag down the metals at first?

It is hard to guess logicially since the government manipulators can mess with the machine.

[Uncle Salty]

It is all about timing and factors. If people- governments, banks, etc... need to pay off debt, won't they sell assets, like gold? If the stock market begins to crash... and that may happen soon.... won't that drag down the metals at first?


It's the paper price of gold that is being suppressed. I don't think any substantial quantities of physical gold are being sold to raise cash, just paper gold. That's the rub. The rigged paper markets must fail before we really get the moon shot. As soon as physical does not become available on the Comex or LBMA, that is when the fun starts.

[gunDriller]

It's the paper price of gold that is being suppressed. I don't think any substantial quantities of physical gold are being sold to raise cash, just paper gold. That's the rub. The rigged paper markets must fail before we really get the moon shot. As soon as physical does not become available on the Comex or LBMA, that is when the fun starts.

the larger physical sellers use the paper markets to hedge their positions.

hence APMex can take possession of physical when silver is $40, sell it when silver is $30, and still make money.


when they can no longer use those hedges effectively, that will also be a step forward for the physical market setting the price.