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View Full Version : This virus has almost a 100% kill rate, Is this the one?



Dogman
8th July 2012, 03:24 PM
Heard this one on the news yesterday, so far only children and in Cambodia. Major scary and major lethal. All it would take is tourist too fly it back home , where ever in the world.

Children’s Deaths in Cambodia Linked to Virus


he investigation of a mystery disease that has killed dozens of children in Cambodia is advancing after the discovery in patient samples of a virus that causes hand, foot and mouth disease. The Institut Pasteur du Cambodge found enterovirus 71 in 15 of 24 patients sampled since mid-June, Philippe Buchy, head of the Phnom Penh-based institute’s virology unit, said yesterday by phone. The virus is known to cause the symptoms seen in the deaths of more than 60 children across the country since April, he said.

“This information is valuable and will help the investigation tremendously,” said Nima Asgari, leader of the emerging diseases surveillance and response group at the World Health Organization in Cambodia, which is working with the local Ministry of Health to review the illness.

The investigation team is now reviewing cases in which the patients died before tests were done to ensure they “at least clinically and epidemiologically” fit the hand, foot and mouth disease profile, Asgari said in an e-mailed response to questions.

The country’s health ministry announced July 4 that it was working with the World Health Organization to actively investigate the cause of the deaths. Preliminary findings had identified 74 cases, the World Health Organization said in a July 6 statement, with the majority of the patients hospitalized in the Kantha Bopha Children’s Hospital in Phnom Penh.

“We have now to see what really is causing the deadly pulmonary complication and see if a toxic factor is playing a role too,” Beat Richner, head of the hospital, said yesterday in an e-mailed statement.

‘Total Destruction’

Of 66 children admitted to the hospital with similar symptoms, 64 have died, most of them between the ages of two and three, Richner said. The children developed “in the last hours of their life a total destruction of the alveolas in the lungs.”

Children admitted to hospitals with symptoms including high fever, breathing difficulty and neurological problems had rapid deterioration of respiratory function, Joy Rivaca Caminade, a technical officer with WHO’s Regional Office for the Western Pacific in Manila, said July 6. The affected children suffered from encephalitis, Richner said.

Outside the hospital buildings yesterday, dozens of children and parents walked throughout the hospital grounds, while families sat in the shade to avoid the afternoon sun as they waited to hear news about their loved ones. Guards only allowed one visitor per patient into the buildings.

Mao Nath, 31, had traveled from Kampot province, about 121 kilometers (75 miles) from the Cambodian capital, to accompany her 10-year-old nephew sick with tetanus.

“I’ve heard about this strange disease and I’m concerned my nephew may also catch it,” she said while sitting on a green mat with three small children.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-07-08/mystery-disease-investigation-in-cambodia-advances-on-virus-find

SLV^GLD
9th July 2012, 06:44 AM
Haha,a tourist, eh? Ever notice how many garments are produced in Cambodia?

Dogman
9th July 2012, 06:50 AM
Haha,a tourist, eh? Ever notice how many garments are produced in Cambodia? Plus a lot of other things, but that is not the purpose of this thread, but good topics for other threads. This virus is one scary sob, and if it gets out/breaks out, from where it is and spreads!

Garments are the last thing that will be on anyone's mind.

Except what to be buried in.

DMac
9th July 2012, 06:53 AM
"This virus has almost a 100% kill rate, Is this the one?"

Short answer - no.

The big one will have a kill rate of something like 30%. 100% kill rate and it burns out way too fast. 1-2 week quarantine and it would be over. 30% give or take and you have odds in favor of it actually being around long enough to spread.

H5N1 is still the bug to be feared. It has not gone away.

Dogman
9th July 2012, 06:57 AM
"This virus has almost a 100% kill rate, Is this the one?"

Short answer - no.

The big one will have a kill rate of something like 30%. 100% kill rate and it burns out way too fast. 1-2 week quarantine and it would be over. 30% give or take and you have odds in favor of it actually being around long enough to spread.

H5N1 is still the bug to be feared. It has not gone away.

Both can be right, It depends on the incubation time. If it is very hot with a short incubation time, then you are right, because it can not spread very far before a quarantine would be in place.

But if it is very hot and has a long incubation time, then all bets are off, it could spread widely before anyone would have a clue. And that is down right terrifying. Because the ability to quarantine the infected would be much more difficult. Sorta like a chain reaction.

Gaillo
9th July 2012, 11:33 AM
CDC researcher's To Do list:

Work on increasing incubation time... CHECK
Work on increasing mortality rate... CHECK
Work on better global dispersion methods... CHECK
Luncheon with Bill Gates and Obama...

JohnQPublic
9th July 2012, 12:22 PM
CDC researcher's To Do list:

Work on increasing incubation time... CHECK
Work on increasing mortality rate... CHECK
Work on better global dispersion methods... CHECK
Luncheon with Bill Gates and Obama...

Don't forget breakfast with Bernanke before the luncheon.

Gaillo
9th July 2012, 12:45 PM
Don't forget breakfast with Bernanke before the luncheon.

Nah... that's only if you're about to be nominated as presidential candidate! ;D

Serpo
9th July 2012, 01:39 PM
Where they not experimenting with mosquitoes and malaria over there, BTW Cambodia is a great place.

SLV^GLD
10th July 2012, 05:06 AM
This virus is one scary sob, and if it gets out/breaks out, from where it is and spreads!

Garments are the last thing that will be on anyone's mind.

If I understand you correctly you're implying that overseas shipments of goods from Cambodia couldn't possibly be a vector for transmittance of the virus.

Or maybe you didn't understand me correctly?

Dogman
10th July 2012, 06:09 AM
If I understand you correctly you're implying that overseas shipments of goods from Cambodia couldn't possibly be a vector for transmittance of the virus.

Or maybe you didn't understand me correctly? I probably did misunderstand. At this point who knows what vectors this thing is taking. But my understanding of viruses is they can not live very long on dry surfaces, and I suspect that clothing and such are shipped dry.

I was taking your post as referring to Cambodia using child labor and sweat shop working conditions, which they do not only in that country but all over that part of the world. And that subject in its self is worthy of its own thread.

Most viruses need a close association (airborne) or direct contact of living carriers/hosts as a transfer vector, as my understanding goes.