Gold rocket in August...

[Gaillo]

What do you say? To da moon?

[Buddha]

Meh...

http://www.angeladas.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/key_art_sideways.jpg

[osoab]

Looks like a probable wash to me.

http://www.kitco.com/LFgif//auaug95.gif
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif//auaug96.gif
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif//auaug97.gif
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http://www.kitco.com/LFgif//auaug00.gif
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif//auaug01.gif

http://www.kitco.com/LFgif//auaug03.gif
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif//auaug04.gif

[osoab]

http://www.kitco.com/LFgif//auaug05.gif
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif//auaug06.gif
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif//auaug07.gif
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif//auaug08.gif
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif//auaug09.gif
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif//auaug10.gif
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif//auaug11.gif

[Buddha]

Those last two charts look nice.

[Serpo]

What do you say? To da moon?


Maybe the space station........

[Skirnir_]

I don't know, and I don't really care. Where else would I put my money - some shaky ETF, inflated equities, or (ha *snort* hahaha) bonds?!

[osoab]

Those last two charts look nice.

Till you look at Ag.


http://www.kitco.com/LFgif//agaug94.gif
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif//agaug95.gif
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif//agaug96.gif
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif//agaug97.gif
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif//agaug98.gif
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif//agaug99.gif
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif//agaug00.gif
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif//agaug01.gif
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif//agaug02.gif
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif//agaug03.gif

[osoab]

http://www.kitco.com/LFgif//agaug04.gif
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif//agaug05.gif
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif//agaug06.gif
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif//agaug07.gif
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif//agaug08.gif
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif//agaug09.gif
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif//agaug10.gif
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif//agaug11.gif

[mamboni]

With volatility in globalmarkets, today King World News interviewed James Turk out of Europe. Turk told KWN, “The financial,monetary and economic conditions are so bad ... that everything will spin outof control.” He also warned, “There is a new factor at work that is about to light a fireunder the precious metals that few people recognize - food inflation.” He wenton to say, “We can expect a rally from here that will take our breath away.”

Here is what Turk had to sayabout what is happening: “The sentiment indicatorsfor gold and silver have been exceptionally low for weeks now, Eric, which isunderstandable given their lackluster performance during this period, as wellas the downright discouraging performance of the mining shares. A recent Gaillo survey [pronounced GAY-LOW] shows goldbugs bearish to indifferent. This is very bullish!”

“But this is no time for complacency. The financial,monetary and economic conditions are so bad, that the situation could spin outof control at any second. Because these problems are not being solved, thepoint is that everything will spin out of control.

When that happens - as you and I have mentioned manytimes to the KWN audience around the globe - the best way to protect yourselfand your family is with tangible assets....

“In other words, anything real. That could includefarmland, timberland, your house, an oil well or any other tangible asset. Andthe most liquid of these are gold and silver, which of course is why they havebeen used as money for thousands of years.

The latest important news is that Moody's justdowngraded Italy's debt again. This downtrend in the quality of its debt isominous, and one has to wonder why anyone would own any Italian debt. Italiangovernment debt is now 8 notches from the highest credit rating and just 2notches above junk. And total Italian government debt is now approaching EUR 2trillion.

Think about that for a moment, Eric. This debtmountain is only 2 notches above junk. Consider all the banks, central banks,pension plans and other institutional investors that own this debt. What arethey going to do if the Italian economy - like most of Europe - continuesheading lower, making repayment of the debt difficult if not impossible? Whatare they going to do if this debt is eventually downgraded again to junk?

The European banks own a lot of Italian governmentdebt. The ECB also owns a lot too, either outright or as collateral, which theECB unbelievably accepts this paper at 100% face value.

So here is what is going on in Europe. An Italian bankloses deposits because of the silent bank runs that are underway. Also, noother banks are willing to lend to it because of the uncertain quality of itsloan book. The Italian bank then uses the Italian bonds it owns, as collateral,to borrow, from the ECB, the euros it needs to replace the deposits it lost.

So instead of the euro being backed by qualityborrowers, more and more backing is coming from paper from over-leveragedgovernments like Italy, whose paper Moody's is telling us is declining in valueand near junk. Because of the accounting involved, this insidious process ishidden from anyone who doesn't understand bank balance sheets.

But there is a simple analogy, it is nothing more thanclipping coins, just like kings and Roman emperors used to do. This modernclipping is harder to detect because a euro looks the same and the clippingcomes from the accounting sleight of hand, but it is clipping nonetheless. Thecontent - the quality - of the euro is eroding.

The key point, Eric, is that all fiat currency isbeing clipped to some extent, so it is dangerous to be in any kind of paper.The big risk here is not owning any physical metal.”

Turk also noted: “Moving to theUS, over the past few weeks, three cities in California have filed forbankruptcy. The only difference between them and Italy is that they do not havea central bank bending over backwards to keep them afloat.”

Turk also had this to say regardinggold and silver: “The bears and central planners have had everyopportunity to break support under $1600 and under $27, even if just to gun forstops under these levels. But the precious metals have held firm. It is animpressive performance, but I am more impressed by the rally in gold and silverthat started last week.

There is a new factor at work that is about to light afire under the precious metals that few people recognize - food inflation. Itwas one of the key drivers in the summer of 2010 which launched the huge rallythat eventually took silver near $50 and gold to a new record over $1900. Foodinflation was also a factor in the big run-up of the precious metals in 2007,and early 2008, when food riots broke out around the globe because of highprices.

The worsening drought in the midwest means that foodinflation will again become one of the drivers sending gold, silver and themining shares much higher from here. The summer doldrums are over. Gold andsilver are ready to get exciting once again. We can expect a rally from herethat will take our breath away.”

[Serpo]

Gay low ..................--)

[Gaillo]

Gay low ..................--)

Sir Poo ......... --)

[MAGNES]

People here still don't know where to get a good chart and post it.

These are the people hanging with Jokey in chat and giving me guff,

http://i39.tinypic.com/6hkg1w.gif

Just remember, I am the " troll hunter " ,

http://i91.photobucket.com/albums/k306/keruxx/rollinglaugh.gif

This place reminds me today of the old GIM in many ways
and I wanted to open a thread on that too, LOL !
FLASHBACKS

" BY THEIR WORKS YE SHALL KNOW THEM " GSUS

I have built a very good thread here where I post at key moments,
charts, links, day chart, daily charts, COT, etc, we are not at
that key moment, it is coming, I will update that thread when
that day comes. Go to thread in question and read what is posted.
Then look at the charts, if you are a student, same thing already
posted about is materializing. Some of us are trading this and looking
for the big one. Right now anything can happen short term.

[gunDriller]

gold on the downside tends to happen because of manipulation - raids, increasing margin requirements, etc.

gold on the upside tends to happen from natural forces.


when will the Cartel run out of ammunition for the raids ? they have near-infinite cash, to reward paper players for not taking delivery.

as far as physical, they need physical to keep central bank buying from driving up the price. which is not easy given that demand this last year has exceeded production.

to offset China's appetite - they consumed 100 tons in April, half of world production - the Cartel needs real physical from Rubes like Italy. Deeply in debt, with 2000+ tons of Gold to offer as collateral.

but how much of Italy's Gold has already been sold ? That depends on where they keep it.


the game is over when the Cartel runs out of secret reserves to satisfy physical demand. can't raid Libya, they already stole their Gold.

[beefsteak]

Gunny,
I believe the world's annual gold production is in the neighborhood of 2700 tons (78mil oz give or take a few kg)

Now you have me going back and checking my notations for why I remember that 2700t number. World Gold Council i'm thinkin'.......

As far as the "who Norcini was quoting/referencing" in the mamboni OP, I believe it was Gene Arensberg, but can't be sure.

My whole problem with statements such as "first time" is that the LENGTH OF TIME isn't ever specified! I always read such utterances with a "oh, in what time frame?" skeptical, albeit non-verbal response.

Gene Arensberg said it was the 3rd time/Swaps/Big Commericals had gone long...and HE didn't specify in what time frame, either. But it was him that did the CoT math Norcini quoted if memory serves...a net 799 contracts to the long side that got Norcini all lathered up in his Sat radio interview on KWN.

Carry on, friend.


beefsteak

[Horn]

I believe this market will capitalize anything in its path until completely dead.

[Neuro]

Slight increase in August. The rocket will start its launch in September. Leave atmosphere ($1900) December. Leave gravitational pull ($2400) in February. Bounce the moon ($3000) in early may, get back into orbit ($2000-2400), by August to refuel and get some plasma engines for hyperspace travel ($10.000 to infinity)...

[osoab]

Slight increase in August. The rocket will start its launch in September. Leave atmosphere ($1900) December. Leave gravitational pull ($2400) in February. Bounce the moon ($3000) in early may, get back into orbit ($2000-2400), by August to refuel and get some plasma engines for hyperspace travel ($10.000 to infinity)...

But will silver break 35? :D

[chad]

But will silver break 35? :D

$34.20.

[BrewTech]

Metals will go to the moon the day after I sell my last ounce.

[OutDorsMan]

October

[Sparky]

The key to this is to figure out when these fiscal cliff rescues are going to happen:

1) Extension of Bush tax cuts to middle class.
2) Extension of the 2% payroll tax pullback.
3) Postponement of "auto-cuts" that are supposed to kick in on January 1, 2013.
4) Extension of Bush tax cuts to high end earners.

I say the first three are a lock. Odds are 2-1 in favor of #4 as well.

So the big question is, when? Three possibilities:

1) Prior to election, so that Obama can take the credit. There's no way Congress let's him have #1 without #4. Obama would take this deal in a heartbeat, claiming the extension of tax relief for the rich is "only temporary in this difficult job environment." I'd peg this one for late September.
2) Lame duck session, November through January. I see #2 and #3 happening in December during the final hour, no matter who wins the election. It's their typical mode of operation: wait until the last minute.
3) After a new administration takes office. If they don't make a deal on #1 and #4 before the election, it will probably take place after the new administration. I say 2-1 odds in favor of pre-election, unless the Republicans really refuse to give Obama a deal, even though it's the deal they've been fighting for, i.e. tax cut extensions for all.

Another weak-spine maneuver will be that all of these moves will be voted as "temporary", probably through 2013.

When these events take place, it will be yet another round of assurance that our government does not have the wherewithall to deal with our fiscal situation. These are what will propel the next gold upleg. So put me down for a rocket period running from September through February.

[Serpo]

Seasonal Charts: Gold (GC)

The seasonal chart below is best used as an historic reference of past trends and turing points and not as a buy/sell recomendation.

Seasonal Observations:
•
•
•
•
Five Year Seasonal Study:
http://www.signalfinancialgroup.com/SeasonalCharts/GC_5YrStudy.jpg


Ten Year Seasonal Study:
http://www.signalfinancialgroup.com/SeasonalCharts/GC_10YrStudy.jpg


Five/Ten/Fifteen Year Seasonal Comparison:
http://www.signalfinancialgroup.com/SeasonalCharts/GC_SeasonalityStudy.jpg


Twenty Year Seasonal Study:
http://www.signalfinancialgroup.com/SeasonalCharts/GC_20YrStudy.jpg


Twenty/Thirty Year Seasonal Comparison:
http://www.signalfinancialgroup.com/SeasonalCharts/GC_HistoricalStudy.jpghttp://www.signalfinancialgroup.com/seasonal/seasonalGC.php

Influenced on Indian buying too a large degree but now with the Chinese buying they dont seem to have a season as its all the time plus other central banks buying it makes you wonder if the history charts are just that....history.

[Neuro]

But will silver break 35? :D
Never!


;D

[beefsteak]

Agreed, Neuro. However, I think most on this forum are hoping and praying that silver will at least give $35t/o a good DENT, yes? :D

[Serpo]

Thats funny ,thats what the crooks at HSBC think also;D

Idiot article of the week...........

Yesterday's top story: Silver - a modest outlook at best

Silver prices are expected to break through $30/oz by year end, but are unlikely to remain above $32/oz for a sustained period says HSBC.



Author: Geoff Candy
Posted: Monday , 16 Jul 2012
GRONINGEN (MINEWEB) -
Investment demand is expected to continue its role as the swing factor for silver prices over the course of the rest of 2012.
According to HSBC's latest Silver Outlook report, silver prices are expected to move back above $30/oz by year end and remain relatively firm throughout 2013 but, this will be in spite of an expected surplus of over ground silver stock as a result of moderately increased mine production and scrap silver on the supply side and only moderate growth in industrial and physical demand.
The bank writes that this surplus will have to be absorbed by net implied investment if prices are not to fall further.
"Based purely on underlying physical fundamentals, which are only moderately bullish in our view, we believe prices are unlikely to stay over USD32/oz for a sustained period."
The bank is of the opinion that, while industrial demand could have an impact on prices, "Investor sentiment will be a key determinant of silver prices going forward, especially in the short term."
It writes, "Investor demand has absorbed the excess physical silver generated by rising mine output and slack jewelry and photographic demand. The silver ETFs specifically have absorbed sizable amounts of bullion in just a few years."
According to its estimates, HSBC says silver ETFs will hold the equivalent of almost two-thirds of annual silver mine output this year and more than twice annual jewelry and silverware demand this year.
What is driving investor demand?
According to HSBC, many of the factors affecting silver demand, are the same as those affecting gold demand.
"Silver is traditionally responsive to changes in monetary policy," it writes, adding, "The possibility that the US Federal Reserve and other central banks will further ease policy later this year is silver price-supportive. Furthermore problems associated with mounting debt levels, and the possibility that the authorities will engineer negative real interest rates as a way of reducing the debt burden, are also supportive of silver, as well as gold and other hard assets."
The bank says the metal could also benefit from a shift in focus away from the crisis within the euro zone and toward the problems facing the US, especially during an election year.
"If recent progress in addressing the euro zone is built on, and were the EUR to strengthen, this would also support bullion prices, as silver, as well as gold has a traditional inverse relationship with the USD."
With regards its role as a safe haven, HSBC maintains that, while silver's reputation as a safe haven is secondary to that of gold's, "it is fair to say that silver, is also traditionally regarded as a safe haven asset. This view reflects the fact that silver, as well as gold, almost alone among all the widely accepted safe-haven assets, is not subject to government fiscal or monetary policies."
But, it is also quick to point out that silver has not behaved as a traditional safe haven since the sovereign risk crisis began in the euro zone. This, the bank says, is partly because silver had to compete with other so-called safe havens. But, more importantly than that, it says, "A characteristic of the financial crisis has been that assets are increasingly correlated and behave either as risk assets or safe havens... silver is one of the very few assets - along with gold - that has traded independently from safe havens including the USD and US Treasuries, as well as German and British government bonds."
It adds, "This implies to us that while silver is influenced by shifts in risk on/risk off sentiment, it is also influenced by its own supply/demand fundamentals and retains some degree of independence from other assets. That silver is not acting as a risk on or risk off asset increases its portfolio diversification value. Hence it may be attractive for investors wishing to maintain a risk-neutral portfolio, as well as for investors who may wish to seek some diversity from gold."
HSBC says it has lowered its 2012 average silver price forecast to USD31/oz from USD34/oz, but maintains its forecasts of USD32/oz for 2013 and USD28/oz for 2014.
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page32?oid=155159&sn=Detail&pid=102055

[gunDriller]

http://exploration.grc.nasa.gov/education/rocket/gallery/saturn/launch1b.jpg

[Serpo]

http://exploration.grc.nasa.gov/education/rocket/gallery/saturn/launch1b.jpg


Nice thrusters................

[Silver Rocket Bitches!]

Who cares? It's all dollar indicative anyway. As long as gold is relatively low, other commodities are just as low, on average. I hope there's another run on treasuries so maybe we can back up the truck one more time. With the trouble goin on in Europe, that might just happen. Of course it'll be temporary because the long term health of the dollar is guaranteed to trend down. So take advantage because it won't last as long as last time.

[Sparky]

"The silver ETFs specifically have absorbed sizable amounts of bullion in just a few years."

Mock these ETFs if you want, but the only way silver gets above $100 is with continued bullion demand from this retail option which is favored by most people, who don't understand the Ponce Principle.

[Serpo]

What do you say? To da moon?

Looks as though too the moon maybe correct...............

“Big, Big Moves” in Gold Price in August, Elite Insider Leaks to GATA

Posted by Dominique de Kevelioc de Bailleul on Jul 23, 2012 | 2 comments


As early as 10 days, the gold price will suddenly explode to the upside, according to one of Europe’s elite. Moreover, the European tycoon also explained why the silver price soared approximately 150 percent to nearly $50 within an eight-month period of Sept. 2010 and Apr. 2011.

Speaking with SGTreport host Brandon Smith, Chairman Bill Murphy of Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) said a longtime British “contact” told him that the month of August will usher in an event which will shock traders into buying the gold and silver bullion market aggressively again.

“The fellow I spoke with I’ve known for years, one of the wealthier men in all of Europe,” said Murphy. “He’s got a lot of connections . . . It will be tough for the gold and silver markets [during the month of July], but starting in August they would start to ‘go nuts’, and they would ‘stay nuts’ for a long time. . . Big, big moves are coming, starting in August.”


Murphy continued with the suggestion that the “big, big move”, starting in August, could possibly be triggered as a result of an announcement by the CFTC regarding its nearly four-year-long investigation into charges of silver market manipulation practices leveled against mega-banks JP Morgan and HSBC, the two banks that Murphy and his associates at GATA have accused for more than a decade as the kingpins of the gold and silver market cartel.

“I’ve a great deal of respect for Bart Chilton, one of their commissioners,” Murphy explained. “I’ve met him twice—communicate with him here and there—he doesn’t tell me anything he can’t—but he told me . . . I don’t know . . . two, three months ago, that we should be hearing something [announcement] in three or four months, either way. So, that would put it [the announcement] in August.”

Echoing predictions for a late-summer rally in the precious metals market, Goldmoney’s James Turk, told King World News, Jul. 16, the factors that soared precious metals prices in 2007, 2008 and 2010 are, again, in place for another stellar move to the upside this summer, as well.

According to Turk, in addition to the volatile credit markets in Europe, prices of food commodities are expected to jump sharply in August in response to global drought conditions, including severe drought conditions in the world’s breadbasket, the United States, not witnessed since the 1950s. Turk expects the commodities market to spark another eye-popping move in the precious metals.

“There is a new factor at work that is about to light a fire under the precious metals that few people recognize – food inflation,” said Turk. “It was one of the key drivers in the summer of 2010 which launched the huge rally that eventually took silver near $50 and gold to a new record over $1900.

“Food inflation was also a factor in the big run-up of the precious metals in 2007, and early 2008, when food riots broke out around the globe because of high prices,” added Turk, and conclude, “food inflation will again become one of the drivers sending gold, silver and the mining shares much higher from here.

“The summer doldrums are over. Gold and silver are ready to get exciting once again. We can expect a rally from here that will take our breath away.”
http://www.beaconequity.com/big-big-moves-in-gold-price-in-august-elite-insider-leaks-to-gata-2012-07-23/

[mick silver]

it will get there when it get there not till then and also why would anyone buy gold and silver with all this good paper money that there printing more of every day

[Serpo]

The masters will still be top and you all will still be the bottom running around in the ruins.

After everything resets...the top will employ all below to build and maintain the next source of all your misery and suffering...and the top will live off the yield from your power struggle trying to escape it. http://gold-silver.us/forum/images/smilies/300%20%2864%29.gif






uNLESS THEY ARE ALL IN JAIL OF COURSE

[gunDriller]

Echoing predictions for a late-summer rally in the precious metals market, Goldmoney’s James Turk, told King World News, Jul. 16, the factors that soared precious metals prices in 2007, 2008 and 2010 are, again, in place for another stellar move to the upside this summer, as well.

the reasons cited for the run-up in prices are still there when prices fall off.

but the forces pushing it up are usually offset by the Cartel's manipulation.

i have been thinking that the one thing the Cartel needs to Manipulate - the ability to deliver physical - would run into a brick wall at one point ... when they run out of physical.

especially with China buying up to 50% of world gold production, like they did in April 2012.


Let the Games Begin ?!


i wonder if the 'catalyzing incident' (cited by the insider) will relate to war launched during the summer Olympics. by Israel against Iran. they did something similar during the Beijing Olympics.

[beefsteak]

You make a good point, gunny. As they say in the business, explanations always emerge post action/reaction. And THEEE "catalyzing incident" will emerge post rally this time, as well, if seasonal gold rally history is any indication.

The thing about Turk's claim that food inflation was a (significant <--my word) factor in the run up in gold starting in 2007 which grates on me is this:

Why are we just now hearing about 2007's "food inflation? ? ?" Don't recall the food riots happening here stateside, nor getting much controlled world press from elsewhere, either. Besides, do hungry people rush out and buy gold in some corner of the planet? Or, is Turk claiming he missed a dessert or two because the ingredients in his scones spiked higher, and trying to make a case for food inflation based upon his regular mealtimes? ? ?

Every US citizen interested in the "no-inflation here in 'merica" mantra knows that the CPI and the PPI are ALWAYS REPORTED sans "food and energy."

And in the last decade or so, even the food category metric was deliberately altered to suppress the segment of the food industry whose price increased. How? But using the argument that rather than continuing to report consumers eating higher priced bacon in the summer BLTs, for example, the consumer would switch to purportedly cheaper, chicken salad spread for their summer sandwiches' fare, instead. VOILA, no inflationary pork impact would be reflected in the official CPI/PPI index numbers reported, and therefore, "See? NO INFLATION!"

This "trick" is along the same way the bureaucratic statisticians took the meteoric rise in housing out of the stats, which is a part of CPI. How? By changing THAT algorithm/metric to what one would be able to rent a house for a family of 4 for example, instead of buying something that would house a family of 4.

It's just numbers...
to Turk,
to GATA's leakyboat leaker, and
to Lindsay's elite petrol buddies.

Elites? meh, and that goes double for the horse they rode in on.


beefsteak