MNeagle
9th August 2012, 03:04 PM
Submitted by Tyler
Durden (http://gold-silver.us/users/tyler-durden) on 08/09/2012 14:30 -0400
Gross Domestic Product (http://gold-silver.us/taxonomy_vtn/term/9219)
Medicare (http://gold-silver.us/taxonomy_vtn/term/9685)
Rating Agencies (http://gold-silver.us/taxonomy_vtn/term/9282)
Recession (http://gold-silver.us/taxonomy_vtn/term/10912)
Unemployment (http://gold-silver.us/taxonomy_vtn/term/10938)
Unemployment Benefits (http://gold-silver.us/taxonomy_vtn/term/161)
White House (http://gold-silver.us/taxonomy_vtn/term/223)
All you need to know about the fiscal cliff which will savage the US economy
in under 5 months, unless Congress finds a way to compromise at a time when
animosity and
polarization (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/peak-political-polarization-obamas-budget-increases-rhetoric)in congress is the worst it has ever been in history.
Key dates:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2012/07-2/Fiscal%20Cliff%202_0.jpg
The cliff in graphics:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2012/07-2/Fiscal%20Cliff%201_0.jpg
The cliff in numbers:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2012/07-2/Cliff%20in%20numbers_0.jpg
The players:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2012/07-2/Key%20Players_0.jpg
And a Q&A from Goldman with its DC political economist Alec Phillips:
What is the “fiscal cliff”?
Alec: It’s the unhappy coincidence of about $600bn in tax
increases and spending cuts that come about on January 1, 2013. Last year, we
started calling this the “fiscal cliff.” On the tax side, the most significant
policies are the income tax cuts enacted in 2001 and 2003, and the payroll tax
cut that has been in place for the last two years. The spending cut comes mainly
from the “sequester,” with a smaller effect from the expiration of expanded
unemployment benefits.
What do you mean by the “sequester”?
Alec: When Congress raised the debt limit last year, the
bill it passed included over $2 trillion over ten years in projected spending
cuts, from capping annual spending bills and a flat $109bn per year cut in
spending known as the “sequester” that would take effect if a deficit reduction
“super committee” failed to agree on $1.2trn in savings. The super committee
failed, so now the sequester is scheduled to cut spending at the start of 2013,
applied equally to defense and domestic spending.
How does the debt limit fit in?
Alec: It’s indirectly related to the fiscal cliff, since
Congress will need to address it either at the end of this year or early next
year. The debt limit is a legal cap on the amount of debt the Treasury can
issue—it currently stands at $16.4 trillion—and covers publicly held debt as
well as debt in the Medicare and Social Security trust funds. We think the limit
will become binding on the Treasury by February 2013, though hopefully Congress
will raise it when they deal with the fiscal cliff at year end.
What happens if the debt limit isn’t raised?
Alec: The Treasury brings in about $200bn each month, but
pays out about $300bn, so it would be able to pay most but not all of its
bills, with missed payments going into arrears. For some areas a sort of “first
in first out” system might make sense, but it seems likely that the Treasury
would prioritize interest payments.
What would be vulnerable to cuts in this
situation?
Alec: Payments to federal employees, contractors, and health
providers under Medicare would probably see effects right away. States, which
receive hundreds of billions per year in federal grants, could also see a
reduction in revenues. Social Security and other types of payments would
probably also be delayed.
What are the key dates ahead for these issues?
Alec: The House recently voted to extend the 2001/2003 tax
cuts in their entirety, and the Senate voted to extend the tax cuts on income
under $250,000. Spending authority will need to be extended for the coming
fiscal year before the current one ends on Sep. 30, but that looks fairly likely
to happen without too much controversy. The election on November 6 will be the
next key date, after which Congress is expected to come back and deal with the
fiscal cliff, but any resolution most likely won’t occur until the end of
December. If there is no resolution by then, Congress may come back early in
2013 and address it retroactively. We expect to hit the debt limit in February,
which is around the same time that the semiannual interest payment on Treasury
debt is due (see Page 3).
Will the election influence how this gets
resolved?
Alec: Yes. Overall, the Republican position is to extend all
of the income tax cuts and to avoid the defense cuts. Most Democrats prefer
avoiding defense and non-defense cuts, and would like tax revenues to replace
some of the lost savings from doing so. They also oppose extending the income
tax cuts on upper incomes.
Will the election influence when this gets
resolved?
Alec: Probably, but it’s not clear in which way. A clear-cut
election victory by either party could hasten an agreement, while a close
election could lead to a more protracted debate. On the other hand, if one
party—the Republicans, for example—were to gain control of Congress and the
White House, they might opt to delay action until they gain control 2013 if they
can’t win concessions in 2012. A status-quo election outcome—i.e., the President
wins reelection and the Democrats hold the Senate—might make an agreement in the
lame duck session of Congress more likely. Of course, there is no clear-cut
answer in any of these scenarios.
Will the fiscal cliff happen?
Alec: It’s not our central expectation. We assume that
Congress will act in the lame-duck session after the election to extend most of
the current policies until sometime in 2013. A three-to-six-months extension
would allow them to address the debt limit and provide some time to come up with
a longer-term fiscal plan that may involve tax reform and/or entitlement (Social
Security/ Medicare) reform. The only part of the fiscal cliff that we expect to
take effect at year end is the expiration of the payroll tax cut (because there
seems to be broad agreement that this will eventually need to expire), along
with continued phase down of emergency unemployment benefits.
What are other scenarios and their
probabilities?
Alec: You have two general scenarios, one is that they
extend the policies past the end of the year and the other is that they don’t.
We think the odds that the fiscal cliff is allowed to take effect at the end of
the year are probably about one in three. If that happened, Congress would
probably step back in 2013 and reverse some of it, though even a temporary lapse
could be disruptive for markets and the real economy. A long-term agreement
before year end (i.e., longer than a full year) seems to be the least likely
outcome.
Will the debate be cleaner or messier than last
year?
Alec: Messier. First, the issue is just bigger. Last year,
we just had the debt limit, whereas this year we have that same threat plus the
fiscal cliff. Also, in order to resolve the issue last year Congress was able to
agree to lower overall spending levels withoutspecifying where those cuts would
come from. Now that those “easy” savings have been used, the options left are
more specific spending cuts or tax increases that are more politically painful.
Also, some politicians may find it advantageous to let the tax cuts expire,
which would enable them to come back next year and enact tax relief on a smaller
scale than exists currently. Even though it would lead to an overall increase in
revenues, this would allow them to cast a vote to cut taxes next year (once
rates have increased) rather than a vote to raise them this year.
What is the economic impact of your base case?
Alec: We assume a drag on GDP growth from fiscal policy of
about 1.5% in 2013, due to the expiration of the payroll tax cut along with some
smaller factors. Even if Congress extended everything, we think that federal
fiscal policy would still weigh slightly on growth, particularly since federal
spending is slowing.
What would the impact be of falling off the
cliff?
Alec: If Congress took no action, we estimate around a 4%
hit to GDP growth in 2013. If you assume an underlying trend of around 2.5%,
that is likely to put the economy into recession. There might be some mitigating
factors: Consumers might initially tap savings or borrow and not all of the
federal spending cuts would kick in on day one. It is also possible that some
business investment or hiring has already been delayed and could restart once
the uncertainty has passed. But overall, letting these policies lapse all at
once would be a very negative outcome. Of course, a short lapse that the new
Congress quickly addresses in January would do less damage to the economy,
though damage to policy credibility and markets might still be significant.
What is the Fed’s role here, if any?
Alec: In our base case we already assume that the Fed is
going to ease policy in September, with renewed balance sheet expansion late
this year or early in 2013. If we fall off the cliff in a more significant way,
then the likelihood of easing and the magnitude of this easing would go up. But
the Fed can’t offset a fiscal contraction of the size we’re talking about.
What sectors would be most impacted?
Alec: Defense and healthcare are the most obvious sectors,
because they have relatively large shares of revenue from the Federal
government, and they are also two places that the sequester is scheduled to hit
hard at the end of the year if Congress doesn’t act. The cut to defense spending
in particular would be almost certainly greater than 10% and may be closer to
20%. The fiscal cliff would also hit consumers’ disposable income, which is an
important distinction with last year’s debt debate, in which most of the policy
discussions were confined to a narrow set of industries and had little direct
impact on consumers.
How concerned is the market about these issues?
Alec: To assess this, you can look at a basket of stocks
that our colleagues in equity research have put together, which
tracks
companies with large shares of government-related revenue. This index
dropped very significantly on a relative basis to the S&Pabout a month ahead
of the debt limit last year and it never fully recovered. We are starting to see
some of that again this year, but the magnitude is obviously not the same so
far. The other area where you would expect to see it is in consumer onfidence
and we have seen some weaker confidence numbers recently, though, again, nothing
like we saw around the debt limit last year.
Allison: Will the market react sooner this time?
Alec: Potentially, but it’s unclear. Last year we saw a
clear reaction to the debt limit debate only about a month before the deadline.
One would imagine the reaction this year would come further in advance of the
event, since it’s a bigger issue and also because there are plenty of people who
were caught off guard by last year’s developments and might be more proactive
this time. That said, my sense is that many in the market are withholding
judgment until the election happens, because it’s just so hard to predict before
then how all of this will be resolved. That could mean a sharper reaction
post-election, depending on the situation.
Will the US be downgraded again this year?
Alec: Probably not. It wouldn’t make much sense for the
rating agencies to take a strong view on fiscal sustainability just ahead of the
election and resolution of the fiscal cliff. They have implied as much in their
recent commentary. That said, I believe the risk of a downgrade reemerges again
next year, depending on how these fiscal issues are resolved. If a longer-term
fiscal agreement either doesn’t happen next year and Congress continues with a
sort of muddle-through approach, or if the agreement is just not as substantial
as some would expect it to be—i.e., they aren’t able to stabilize the projected
debt/GDP ratio by later in the decade—then a downgrade seems possible.
Will this series of events ultimately serve as a positive
catalyst for longer-term fiscal reform?
Alec: Hopefully. The good news is that both parties seem
optimistic that tax reform will be enacted next year. If it happens, it could
also allow for entitlement reform. The bad news is that they need to bridge
fundamental disagreements to get there. They are also working from a smaller
segment of the budget—neither party appears comfortable with significant cuts to
Social Security or Medicare in the next decade, and they disagree on how to
handle taxes and some other areas of the budget. That doesn’t leave a lot of
areas of the budget to work with to achieve savings.
Source: GS
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/your-complete-guide-coming-fiscal-cliff?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedg e+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+fo r+everyone+drops+to+zero%29
Durden (http://gold-silver.us/users/tyler-durden) on 08/09/2012 14:30 -0400
Gross Domestic Product (http://gold-silver.us/taxonomy_vtn/term/9219)
Medicare (http://gold-silver.us/taxonomy_vtn/term/9685)
Rating Agencies (http://gold-silver.us/taxonomy_vtn/term/9282)
Recession (http://gold-silver.us/taxonomy_vtn/term/10912)
Unemployment (http://gold-silver.us/taxonomy_vtn/term/10938)
Unemployment Benefits (http://gold-silver.us/taxonomy_vtn/term/161)
White House (http://gold-silver.us/taxonomy_vtn/term/223)
All you need to know about the fiscal cliff which will savage the US economy
in under 5 months, unless Congress finds a way to compromise at a time when
animosity and
polarization (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/peak-political-polarization-obamas-budget-increases-rhetoric)in congress is the worst it has ever been in history.
Key dates:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2012/07-2/Fiscal%20Cliff%202_0.jpg
The cliff in graphics:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2012/07-2/Fiscal%20Cliff%201_0.jpg
The cliff in numbers:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2012/07-2/Cliff%20in%20numbers_0.jpg
The players:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2012/07-2/Key%20Players_0.jpg
And a Q&A from Goldman with its DC political economist Alec Phillips:
What is the “fiscal cliff”?
Alec: It’s the unhappy coincidence of about $600bn in tax
increases and spending cuts that come about on January 1, 2013. Last year, we
started calling this the “fiscal cliff.” On the tax side, the most significant
policies are the income tax cuts enacted in 2001 and 2003, and the payroll tax
cut that has been in place for the last two years. The spending cut comes mainly
from the “sequester,” with a smaller effect from the expiration of expanded
unemployment benefits.
What do you mean by the “sequester”?
Alec: When Congress raised the debt limit last year, the
bill it passed included over $2 trillion over ten years in projected spending
cuts, from capping annual spending bills and a flat $109bn per year cut in
spending known as the “sequester” that would take effect if a deficit reduction
“super committee” failed to agree on $1.2trn in savings. The super committee
failed, so now the sequester is scheduled to cut spending at the start of 2013,
applied equally to defense and domestic spending.
How does the debt limit fit in?
Alec: It’s indirectly related to the fiscal cliff, since
Congress will need to address it either at the end of this year or early next
year. The debt limit is a legal cap on the amount of debt the Treasury can
issue—it currently stands at $16.4 trillion—and covers publicly held debt as
well as debt in the Medicare and Social Security trust funds. We think the limit
will become binding on the Treasury by February 2013, though hopefully Congress
will raise it when they deal with the fiscal cliff at year end.
What happens if the debt limit isn’t raised?
Alec: The Treasury brings in about $200bn each month, but
pays out about $300bn, so it would be able to pay most but not all of its
bills, with missed payments going into arrears. For some areas a sort of “first
in first out” system might make sense, but it seems likely that the Treasury
would prioritize interest payments.
What would be vulnerable to cuts in this
situation?
Alec: Payments to federal employees, contractors, and health
providers under Medicare would probably see effects right away. States, which
receive hundreds of billions per year in federal grants, could also see a
reduction in revenues. Social Security and other types of payments would
probably also be delayed.
What are the key dates ahead for these issues?
Alec: The House recently voted to extend the 2001/2003 tax
cuts in their entirety, and the Senate voted to extend the tax cuts on income
under $250,000. Spending authority will need to be extended for the coming
fiscal year before the current one ends on Sep. 30, but that looks fairly likely
to happen without too much controversy. The election on November 6 will be the
next key date, after which Congress is expected to come back and deal with the
fiscal cliff, but any resolution most likely won’t occur until the end of
December. If there is no resolution by then, Congress may come back early in
2013 and address it retroactively. We expect to hit the debt limit in February,
which is around the same time that the semiannual interest payment on Treasury
debt is due (see Page 3).
Will the election influence how this gets
resolved?
Alec: Yes. Overall, the Republican position is to extend all
of the income tax cuts and to avoid the defense cuts. Most Democrats prefer
avoiding defense and non-defense cuts, and would like tax revenues to replace
some of the lost savings from doing so. They also oppose extending the income
tax cuts on upper incomes.
Will the election influence when this gets
resolved?
Alec: Probably, but it’s not clear in which way. A clear-cut
election victory by either party could hasten an agreement, while a close
election could lead to a more protracted debate. On the other hand, if one
party—the Republicans, for example—were to gain control of Congress and the
White House, they might opt to delay action until they gain control 2013 if they
can’t win concessions in 2012. A status-quo election outcome—i.e., the President
wins reelection and the Democrats hold the Senate—might make an agreement in the
lame duck session of Congress more likely. Of course, there is no clear-cut
answer in any of these scenarios.
Will the fiscal cliff happen?
Alec: It’s not our central expectation. We assume that
Congress will act in the lame-duck session after the election to extend most of
the current policies until sometime in 2013. A three-to-six-months extension
would allow them to address the debt limit and provide some time to come up with
a longer-term fiscal plan that may involve tax reform and/or entitlement (Social
Security/ Medicare) reform. The only part of the fiscal cliff that we expect to
take effect at year end is the expiration of the payroll tax cut (because there
seems to be broad agreement that this will eventually need to expire), along
with continued phase down of emergency unemployment benefits.
What are other scenarios and their
probabilities?
Alec: You have two general scenarios, one is that they
extend the policies past the end of the year and the other is that they don’t.
We think the odds that the fiscal cliff is allowed to take effect at the end of
the year are probably about one in three. If that happened, Congress would
probably step back in 2013 and reverse some of it, though even a temporary lapse
could be disruptive for markets and the real economy. A long-term agreement
before year end (i.e., longer than a full year) seems to be the least likely
outcome.
Will the debate be cleaner or messier than last
year?
Alec: Messier. First, the issue is just bigger. Last year,
we just had the debt limit, whereas this year we have that same threat plus the
fiscal cliff. Also, in order to resolve the issue last year Congress was able to
agree to lower overall spending levels withoutspecifying where those cuts would
come from. Now that those “easy” savings have been used, the options left are
more specific spending cuts or tax increases that are more politically painful.
Also, some politicians may find it advantageous to let the tax cuts expire,
which would enable them to come back next year and enact tax relief on a smaller
scale than exists currently. Even though it would lead to an overall increase in
revenues, this would allow them to cast a vote to cut taxes next year (once
rates have increased) rather than a vote to raise them this year.
What is the economic impact of your base case?
Alec: We assume a drag on GDP growth from fiscal policy of
about 1.5% in 2013, due to the expiration of the payroll tax cut along with some
smaller factors. Even if Congress extended everything, we think that federal
fiscal policy would still weigh slightly on growth, particularly since federal
spending is slowing.
What would the impact be of falling off the
cliff?
Alec: If Congress took no action, we estimate around a 4%
hit to GDP growth in 2013. If you assume an underlying trend of around 2.5%,
that is likely to put the economy into recession. There might be some mitigating
factors: Consumers might initially tap savings or borrow and not all of the
federal spending cuts would kick in on day one. It is also possible that some
business investment or hiring has already been delayed and could restart once
the uncertainty has passed. But overall, letting these policies lapse all at
once would be a very negative outcome. Of course, a short lapse that the new
Congress quickly addresses in January would do less damage to the economy,
though damage to policy credibility and markets might still be significant.
What is the Fed’s role here, if any?
Alec: In our base case we already assume that the Fed is
going to ease policy in September, with renewed balance sheet expansion late
this year or early in 2013. If we fall off the cliff in a more significant way,
then the likelihood of easing and the magnitude of this easing would go up. But
the Fed can’t offset a fiscal contraction of the size we’re talking about.
What sectors would be most impacted?
Alec: Defense and healthcare are the most obvious sectors,
because they have relatively large shares of revenue from the Federal
government, and they are also two places that the sequester is scheduled to hit
hard at the end of the year if Congress doesn’t act. The cut to defense spending
in particular would be almost certainly greater than 10% and may be closer to
20%. The fiscal cliff would also hit consumers’ disposable income, which is an
important distinction with last year’s debt debate, in which most of the policy
discussions were confined to a narrow set of industries and had little direct
impact on consumers.
How concerned is the market about these issues?
Alec: To assess this, you can look at a basket of stocks
that our colleagues in equity research have put together, which
tracks
companies with large shares of government-related revenue. This index
dropped very significantly on a relative basis to the S&Pabout a month ahead
of the debt limit last year and it never fully recovered. We are starting to see
some of that again this year, but the magnitude is obviously not the same so
far. The other area where you would expect to see it is in consumer onfidence
and we have seen some weaker confidence numbers recently, though, again, nothing
like we saw around the debt limit last year.
Allison: Will the market react sooner this time?
Alec: Potentially, but it’s unclear. Last year we saw a
clear reaction to the debt limit debate only about a month before the deadline.
One would imagine the reaction this year would come further in advance of the
event, since it’s a bigger issue and also because there are plenty of people who
were caught off guard by last year’s developments and might be more proactive
this time. That said, my sense is that many in the market are withholding
judgment until the election happens, because it’s just so hard to predict before
then how all of this will be resolved. That could mean a sharper reaction
post-election, depending on the situation.
Will the US be downgraded again this year?
Alec: Probably not. It wouldn’t make much sense for the
rating agencies to take a strong view on fiscal sustainability just ahead of the
election and resolution of the fiscal cliff. They have implied as much in their
recent commentary. That said, I believe the risk of a downgrade reemerges again
next year, depending on how these fiscal issues are resolved. If a longer-term
fiscal agreement either doesn’t happen next year and Congress continues with a
sort of muddle-through approach, or if the agreement is just not as substantial
as some would expect it to be—i.e., they aren’t able to stabilize the projected
debt/GDP ratio by later in the decade—then a downgrade seems possible.
Will this series of events ultimately serve as a positive
catalyst for longer-term fiscal reform?
Alec: Hopefully. The good news is that both parties seem
optimistic that tax reform will be enacted next year. If it happens, it could
also allow for entitlement reform. The bad news is that they need to bridge
fundamental disagreements to get there. They are also working from a smaller
segment of the budget—neither party appears comfortable with significant cuts to
Social Security or Medicare in the next decade, and they disagree on how to
handle taxes and some other areas of the budget. That doesn’t leave a lot of
areas of the budget to work with to achieve savings.
Source: GS
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/your-complete-guide-coming-fiscal-cliff?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedg e+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+fo r+everyone+drops+to+zero%29