joboo
30th August 2012, 01:20 AM
Sept 12, 2012. Any numerologists in the house?
11, 2001
12, 2012?
13, 2023?
"2023 – Ian Gurney predicts in his book “The Cassandra Prophecy – Armageddon Approaches” that the “final date, Judgment Day, the end of mankind’s time on this planet, is less than twenty two years away” from 2001, which means that the world is set to end by 2023 at the very latest."
"Ian Gurney studied theology and eschatology for thirty years and is considered to be one of the foremost authorities on the Biblical Books of Daniel and Revelation, together with the prophecies of Nostradamus and the Papal predictions of Malachy. "
I dunno...where's my big foot suit? There's a highway that needs patrolling.
-----------
"Everything You Need To Know About The September 12 German Court Decision That Could Rock The Entire World"
http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/everything-know-september-12-german-170000728.html
"The eurozone is running out of bailout cash, and the German Constitutional Court now holds the fate of Europe in its hands.
The European Financial Stability Facility, the original euro area bailout fund established in the summer of 2010, is down to about €248 billion of lending capacity (http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/_ylt=A2KLP6_2ET9Qf3EAdAcDEZtG;_ylu=X3oDMTFqMDgxZXM 0BG1pdANBcnRpY2xlIEJvZHkEcG9zAzEEc2VjA01lZGlhQXJ0a WNsZUJvZHlBc3NlbWJseQ--;_ylg=X3oDMTMza3RoM25pBGludGwDY2EEbGFuZwNlbi1jYQRw c3RhaWQDMDEyYTRhNWItM2Q5MS0zYjhkLTg3YzUtYTk4NGRhZG YyMTQ0BHBzdGNhdAN0b3BpY3N8cmVzb3VyY2VzBHB0A3N0b3J5 cGFnZQ--;_ylv=0/SIG=1337d4h6e/EXP=1347520246/**http%3A//www.efsf.europa.eu/attachments/efsf_commitments_and_lending_capacity.pdf) left after existing bailouts for Greece, Portugal, and Ireland are accounted for.
Spain and Italy – the next two countries expected to be in line for a bailout – could have combined financing needs as large as €703bn over the next two years, according to Citi (http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/_ylt=A2KLP6_2ET9Qf3EAdQcDEZtG;_ylu=X3oDMTFqaWd2Ymg 3BG1pdANBcnRpY2xlIEJvZHkEcG9zAzIEc2VjA01lZGlhQXJ0a WNsZUJvZHlBc3NlbWJseQ--;_ylg=X3oDMTMza3RoM25pBGludGwDY2EEbGFuZwNlbi1jYQRw c3RhaWQDMDEyYTRhNWItM2Q5MS0zYjhkLTg3YzUtYTk4NGRhZG YyMTQ0BHBzdGNhdAN0b3BpY3N8cmVzb3VyY2VzBHB0A3N0b3J5 cGFnZQ--;_ylv=0/SIG=12287n5bv/EXP=1347520246/**http%3A//www.businessinsider.com/blackboard/citi) estimates, dwarfing the existing capacity of the EFSF.
Those huge numbers underscore the need for the additional firepower of the European Stability Mechanism, the new bailout fund expected to replace the EFSF and make available hundreds of billions of euros in additional lending capacity to struggling member states.
However, the ESM has still yet to be ratified, which has many counting chickens before the eggs have hatched, so to speak.
The 16 judges that sit on the Federal Constitutional Court of Germany need to sign off on the fund's constitutionality in order to make the fund operational – and the Court is widely expected to do just that when they deliver a ruling on ESM ratification on September 12.
Here are some views from Wall Street:
"The Court will not rule against the ESM allowing it to become operational, but any conditions could have implications on further integration and debate in Germany." – SocGen economist Anatoli Annenkov, August 24
"However, the court may also require additional information, particularly on the ECB’s bond purchase plans under existing ESM programmes, before making a final ruling." Citi economist Jürgen Michels, August 23
"Needless to say, a surprising rejection (not our assumption) would hurt risk sentiment massively." – SocGen fixed income strategist Vincent Chaigneau, August 23
"There is a chance that things could go wrong and if they do they might go terribly wrong. Hence, caution is warranted." – Morgan Stanley (http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/_ylt=A2KLP6_2ET9Qf3EAdgcDEZtG;_ylu=X3oDMTFqaTNjbzl mBG1pdANBcnRpY2xlIEJvZHkEcG9zAzMEc2VjA01lZGlhQXJ0a WNsZUJvZHlBc3NlbWJseQ--;_ylg=X3oDMTMza3RoM25pBGludGwDY2EEbGFuZwNlbi1jYQRw c3RhaWQDMDEyYTRhNWItM2Q5MS0zYjhkLTg3YzUtYTk4NGRhZG YyMTQ0BHBzdGNhdAN0b3BpY3N8cmVzb3VyY2VzBHB0A3N0b3J5 cGFnZQ--;_ylv=0/SIG=12cdd6e4a/EXP=1347520246/**http%3A//www.businessinsider.com/blackboard/morgan-stanley) FX (http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/_ylt=A2KLP6_2ET9Qf3EAdwcDEZtG;_ylu=X3oDMTFqc2Fobm1 zBG1pdANBcnRpY2xlIEJvZHkEcG9zAzQEc2VjA01lZGlhQXJ0a WNsZUJvZHlBc3NlbWJseQ--;_ylg=X3oDMTMza3RoM25pBGludGwDY2EEbGFuZwNlbi1jYQRw c3RhaWQDMDEyYTRhNWItM2Q5MS0zYjhkLTg3YzUtYTk4NGRhZG YyMTQ0BHBzdGNhdAN0b3BpY3N8cmVzb3VyY2VzBHB0A3N0b3J5 cGFnZQ--;_ylv=0/SIG=120vq50i7/EXP=1347520246/**http%3A//www.businessinsider.com/blackboard/fx) strategist Hans Redeker, August 16
"Our central scenario is a positive ruling from the German court, but there is a slight chance that the ruling makes the ESM implementation delayed or more complex." – BofA Merrill Lynch (http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/_ylt=A2KLP6_2ET9Qf3EAeAcDEZtG;_ylu=X3oDMTFqaGFmbHB nBG1pdANBcnRpY2xlIEJvZHkEcG9zAzUEc2VjA01lZGlhQXJ0a WNsZUJvZHlBc3NlbWJseQ--;_ylg=X3oDMTMza3RoM25pBGludGwDY2EEbGFuZwNlbi1jYQRw c3RhaWQDMDEyYTRhNWItM2Q5MS0zYjhkLTg3YzUtYTk4NGRhZG YyMTQ0BHBzdGNhdAN0b3BpY3N8cmVzb3VyY2VzBHB0A3N0b3J5 cGFnZQ--;_ylv=0/SIG=12bsc6ak1/EXP=1347520246/**http%3A//www.businessinsider.com/blackboard/merrill-lynch) economist Laurence Boone, August 10
So, even though the Court is widely expected to approve ESM ratification – and the German Bundestag parliamentary body already approved it by a 3/4 majority – what is behind murmurs of caution among analysts and investors?
The constitutionality of the ESM treaty – which is what the Court is set to rule on – is a matter of question in Germany. Several complaints regarding constitutionality have already been lodged against the ESM to the Court. Philine Schuseil at the European think tank Bruegel has penned a good breakdown of the debate over the ESM in Germany (http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/_ylt=A2KLP6_2ET9Qf3EAeQcDEZtG;_ylu=X3oDMTFqY2dxYjV xBG1pdANBcnRpY2xlIEJvZHkEcG9zAzYEc2VjA01lZGlhQXJ0a WNsZUJvZHlBc3NlbWJseQ--;_ylg=X3oDMTMza3RoM25pBGludGwDY2EEbGFuZwNlbi1jYQRw c3RhaWQDMDEyYTRhNWItM2Q5MS0zYjhkLTg3YzUtYTk4NGRhZG YyMTQ0BHBzdGNhdAN0b3BpY3N8cmVzb3VyY2VzBHB0A3N0b3J5 cGFnZQ--;_ylv=0/SIG=13el77ap7/EXP=1347520246/**http%3A//www.bruegel.org/nc/blog/detail/article/872-is-germany-heading-towards-a-referendum/). The upshot is that the ESM, governed by eurozone finance ministers, would have full control over disbursement of ESM funds to struggling countries, even though such decisions would affect the German government budget.
More from Schuseil (emphasis added):
Decisions of the ESM Board could only be democratically legitimated if they would need the approval of national parliaments. The German law accompanying the ESM treaty, the “ESM-Finanzierungsgesetz”, aims at ensuring the democratic basis by obliging German members of the Board to refuse decisions with impact on the German budget and that have not been accredited by the Bundestag. However, according to Professor Dietrich Murswiek (http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/_ylt=A2KLP6_2ET9Qf3EAegcDEZtG;_ylu=X3oDMTFqZG1vZW1 rBG1pdANBcnRpY2xlIEJvZHkEcG9zAzcEc2VjA01lZGlhQXJ0a WNsZUJvZHlBc3NlbWJseQ--;_ylg=X3oDMTMza3RoM25pBGludGwDY2EEbGFuZwNlbi1jYQRw c3RhaWQDMDEyYTRhNWItM2Q5MS0zYjhkLTg3YzUtYTk4NGRhZG YyMTQ0BHBzdGNhdAN0b3BpY3N8cmVzb3VyY2VzBHB0A3N0b3J5 cGFnZQ--;_ylv=0/SIG=13gittfhk/EXP=1347520246/**http%3A//www.familienunternehmen.de/media/public/pdf/sonderpublikationen/2012/hsb_109-2012.pdf) , this is legally not enforceable.
So, even though German chancellor Angela Merkel (http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/_ylt=A2KLP6_2ET9Qf3EAewcDEZtG;_ylu=X3oDMTFqZTJrMXN oBG1pdANBcnRpY2xlIEJvZHkEcG9zAzgEc2VjA01lZGlhQXJ0a WNsZUJvZHlBc3NlbWJseQ--;_ylg=X3oDMTMza3RoM25pBGludGwDY2EEbGFuZwNlbi1jYQRw c3RhaWQDMDEyYTRhNWItM2Q5MS0zYjhkLTg3YzUtYTk4NGRhZG YyMTQ0BHBzdGNhdAN0b3BpY3N8cmVzb3VyY2VzBHB0A3N0b3J5 cGFnZQ--;_ylv=0/SIG=12b4fjdmm/EXP=1347520246/**http%3A//www.businessinsider.com/blackboard/angela-merkel) and German ECB board members like Jörg Asmussen have been trying to sell the ECB/EFSF/ESM bailouts to the German electorate as they appear to increasingly realize the massive risks Germany faces if it doesn't hold the euro together, there is still a lot of concern in Germany over the ESM.
A troubling scenario for investors would be a referendum in Germany to reconcile current German law with the provisions of the new ESM treaty, which Schuseil discusses in detail at Bruegel (http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/_ylt=A2KLP6_2ET9Qf3EAfAcDEZtG;_ylu=X3oDMTFqcjE2NDh qBG1pdANBcnRpY2xlIEJvZHkEcG9zAzkEc2VjA01lZGlhQXJ0a WNsZUJvZHlBc3NlbWJseQ--;_ylg=X3oDMTMza3RoM25pBGludGwDY2EEbGFuZwNlbi1jYQRw c3RhaWQDMDEyYTRhNWItM2Q5MS0zYjhkLTg3YzUtYTk4NGRhZG YyMTQ0BHBzdGNhdAN0b3BpY3N8cmVzb3VyY2VzBHB0A3N0b3J5 cGFnZQ--;_ylv=0/SIG=13el77ap7/EXP=1347520246/**http%3A//www.bruegel.org/nc/blog/detail/article/872-is-germany-heading-towards-a-referendum/). A recent Pew survey revealed that Germany is deeply split over providing bailout aid to other eurozone member nations, with 48 percent responding that Germany should not be providing financial assistance to other countries (http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/_ylt=A2KLP6_2ET9Qf3EAfQcDEZtG;_ylu=X3oDMTFrb2pndWQ 3BG1pdANBcnRpY2xlIEJvZHkEcG9zAzEwBHNlYwNNZWRpYUFyd GljbGVCb2R5QXNzZW1ibHk-;_ylg=X3oDMTMza3RoM25pBGludGwDY2EEbGFuZwNlbi1jYQRw c3RhaWQDMDEyYTRhNWItM2Q5MS0zYjhkLTg3YzUtYTk4NGRhZG YyMTQ0BHBzdGNhdAN0b3BpY3N8cmVzb3VyY2VzBHB0A3N0b3J5 cGFnZQ--;_ylv=0/SIG=12kg4om0m/EXP=1347520246/**http%3A//www.pewglobal.org/2012/05/29/european-unity-on-the-rocks/).
And even though the Bundestag approved ESM ratification by 3/4 of the vote, there is evidence of increasing bailout fatigue among parliamentary politicians as well:
Back to September 12, though, when the Court is set to rule...
Deutsche Bank (http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/_ylt=A2KLP6_2ET9Qf3EAfgcDEZtG;_ylu=X3oDMTFrM2g5cm4 zBG1pdANBcnRpY2xlIEJvZHkEcG9zAzExBHNlYwNNZWRpYUFyd GljbGVCb2R5QXNzZW1ibHk-;_ylg=X3oDMTMza3RoM25pBGludGwDY2EEbGFuZwNlbi1jYQRw c3RhaWQDMDEyYTRhNWItM2Q5MS0zYjhkLTg3YzUtYTk4NGRhZG YyMTQ0BHBzdGNhdAN0b3BpY3N8cmVzb3VyY2VzBHB0A3N0b3J5 cGFnZQ--;_ylv=0/SIG=12bqfk50b/EXP=1347520246/**http%3A//www.businessinsider.com/blackboard/deutsche-bank) economists Stefan Schneider, Barbara Böttcher, Nicolaus Heinen, and Heiko Peters suggest that the drama surrounding the Court's ESM decision is typical and to be expected.
In a recent note to clients, they explained that "almost every parliamentary ratification of major European decisions has been accompanied by constitutional complaints in Germany. They have become a well-known element of German Euro politics during the past two decades. The judgments have often strengthened the role of the German legislature."
The economists conclude by looking beyond September 12 to the future of the debate in Germany:
Germany’s Constitutional Court is increasingly becoming a forum for Euro-skeptic voices to articulate their arguments from a constitutional point of view. These will likely not be the last constitutional complaints on EMU politics in Germany...It remains to be seen whether the Court will remain as constructive as in its previous judgments, weighing democratic legitimacy carefully against considerations of systemic stability and capacities of other constitutional bodies."
Dooooooommm....
11, 2001
12, 2012?
13, 2023?
"2023 – Ian Gurney predicts in his book “The Cassandra Prophecy – Armageddon Approaches” that the “final date, Judgment Day, the end of mankind’s time on this planet, is less than twenty two years away” from 2001, which means that the world is set to end by 2023 at the very latest."
"Ian Gurney studied theology and eschatology for thirty years and is considered to be one of the foremost authorities on the Biblical Books of Daniel and Revelation, together with the prophecies of Nostradamus and the Papal predictions of Malachy. "
I dunno...where's my big foot suit? There's a highway that needs patrolling.
-----------
"Everything You Need To Know About The September 12 German Court Decision That Could Rock The Entire World"
http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/everything-know-september-12-german-170000728.html
"The eurozone is running out of bailout cash, and the German Constitutional Court now holds the fate of Europe in its hands.
The European Financial Stability Facility, the original euro area bailout fund established in the summer of 2010, is down to about €248 billion of lending capacity (http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/_ylt=A2KLP6_2ET9Qf3EAdAcDEZtG;_ylu=X3oDMTFqMDgxZXM 0BG1pdANBcnRpY2xlIEJvZHkEcG9zAzEEc2VjA01lZGlhQXJ0a WNsZUJvZHlBc3NlbWJseQ--;_ylg=X3oDMTMza3RoM25pBGludGwDY2EEbGFuZwNlbi1jYQRw c3RhaWQDMDEyYTRhNWItM2Q5MS0zYjhkLTg3YzUtYTk4NGRhZG YyMTQ0BHBzdGNhdAN0b3BpY3N8cmVzb3VyY2VzBHB0A3N0b3J5 cGFnZQ--;_ylv=0/SIG=1337d4h6e/EXP=1347520246/**http%3A//www.efsf.europa.eu/attachments/efsf_commitments_and_lending_capacity.pdf) left after existing bailouts for Greece, Portugal, and Ireland are accounted for.
Spain and Italy – the next two countries expected to be in line for a bailout – could have combined financing needs as large as €703bn over the next two years, according to Citi (http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/_ylt=A2KLP6_2ET9Qf3EAdQcDEZtG;_ylu=X3oDMTFqaWd2Ymg 3BG1pdANBcnRpY2xlIEJvZHkEcG9zAzIEc2VjA01lZGlhQXJ0a WNsZUJvZHlBc3NlbWJseQ--;_ylg=X3oDMTMza3RoM25pBGludGwDY2EEbGFuZwNlbi1jYQRw c3RhaWQDMDEyYTRhNWItM2Q5MS0zYjhkLTg3YzUtYTk4NGRhZG YyMTQ0BHBzdGNhdAN0b3BpY3N8cmVzb3VyY2VzBHB0A3N0b3J5 cGFnZQ--;_ylv=0/SIG=12287n5bv/EXP=1347520246/**http%3A//www.businessinsider.com/blackboard/citi) estimates, dwarfing the existing capacity of the EFSF.
Those huge numbers underscore the need for the additional firepower of the European Stability Mechanism, the new bailout fund expected to replace the EFSF and make available hundreds of billions of euros in additional lending capacity to struggling member states.
However, the ESM has still yet to be ratified, which has many counting chickens before the eggs have hatched, so to speak.
The 16 judges that sit on the Federal Constitutional Court of Germany need to sign off on the fund's constitutionality in order to make the fund operational – and the Court is widely expected to do just that when they deliver a ruling on ESM ratification on September 12.
Here are some views from Wall Street:
"The Court will not rule against the ESM allowing it to become operational, but any conditions could have implications on further integration and debate in Germany." – SocGen economist Anatoli Annenkov, August 24
"However, the court may also require additional information, particularly on the ECB’s bond purchase plans under existing ESM programmes, before making a final ruling." Citi economist Jürgen Michels, August 23
"Needless to say, a surprising rejection (not our assumption) would hurt risk sentiment massively." – SocGen fixed income strategist Vincent Chaigneau, August 23
"There is a chance that things could go wrong and if they do they might go terribly wrong. Hence, caution is warranted." – Morgan Stanley (http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/_ylt=A2KLP6_2ET9Qf3EAdgcDEZtG;_ylu=X3oDMTFqaTNjbzl mBG1pdANBcnRpY2xlIEJvZHkEcG9zAzMEc2VjA01lZGlhQXJ0a WNsZUJvZHlBc3NlbWJseQ--;_ylg=X3oDMTMza3RoM25pBGludGwDY2EEbGFuZwNlbi1jYQRw c3RhaWQDMDEyYTRhNWItM2Q5MS0zYjhkLTg3YzUtYTk4NGRhZG YyMTQ0BHBzdGNhdAN0b3BpY3N8cmVzb3VyY2VzBHB0A3N0b3J5 cGFnZQ--;_ylv=0/SIG=12cdd6e4a/EXP=1347520246/**http%3A//www.businessinsider.com/blackboard/morgan-stanley) FX (http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/_ylt=A2KLP6_2ET9Qf3EAdwcDEZtG;_ylu=X3oDMTFqc2Fobm1 zBG1pdANBcnRpY2xlIEJvZHkEcG9zAzQEc2VjA01lZGlhQXJ0a WNsZUJvZHlBc3NlbWJseQ--;_ylg=X3oDMTMza3RoM25pBGludGwDY2EEbGFuZwNlbi1jYQRw c3RhaWQDMDEyYTRhNWItM2Q5MS0zYjhkLTg3YzUtYTk4NGRhZG YyMTQ0BHBzdGNhdAN0b3BpY3N8cmVzb3VyY2VzBHB0A3N0b3J5 cGFnZQ--;_ylv=0/SIG=120vq50i7/EXP=1347520246/**http%3A//www.businessinsider.com/blackboard/fx) strategist Hans Redeker, August 16
"Our central scenario is a positive ruling from the German court, but there is a slight chance that the ruling makes the ESM implementation delayed or more complex." – BofA Merrill Lynch (http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/_ylt=A2KLP6_2ET9Qf3EAeAcDEZtG;_ylu=X3oDMTFqaGFmbHB nBG1pdANBcnRpY2xlIEJvZHkEcG9zAzUEc2VjA01lZGlhQXJ0a WNsZUJvZHlBc3NlbWJseQ--;_ylg=X3oDMTMza3RoM25pBGludGwDY2EEbGFuZwNlbi1jYQRw c3RhaWQDMDEyYTRhNWItM2Q5MS0zYjhkLTg3YzUtYTk4NGRhZG YyMTQ0BHBzdGNhdAN0b3BpY3N8cmVzb3VyY2VzBHB0A3N0b3J5 cGFnZQ--;_ylv=0/SIG=12bsc6ak1/EXP=1347520246/**http%3A//www.businessinsider.com/blackboard/merrill-lynch) economist Laurence Boone, August 10
So, even though the Court is widely expected to approve ESM ratification – and the German Bundestag parliamentary body already approved it by a 3/4 majority – what is behind murmurs of caution among analysts and investors?
The constitutionality of the ESM treaty – which is what the Court is set to rule on – is a matter of question in Germany. Several complaints regarding constitutionality have already been lodged against the ESM to the Court. Philine Schuseil at the European think tank Bruegel has penned a good breakdown of the debate over the ESM in Germany (http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/_ylt=A2KLP6_2ET9Qf3EAeQcDEZtG;_ylu=X3oDMTFqY2dxYjV xBG1pdANBcnRpY2xlIEJvZHkEcG9zAzYEc2VjA01lZGlhQXJ0a WNsZUJvZHlBc3NlbWJseQ--;_ylg=X3oDMTMza3RoM25pBGludGwDY2EEbGFuZwNlbi1jYQRw c3RhaWQDMDEyYTRhNWItM2Q5MS0zYjhkLTg3YzUtYTk4NGRhZG YyMTQ0BHBzdGNhdAN0b3BpY3N8cmVzb3VyY2VzBHB0A3N0b3J5 cGFnZQ--;_ylv=0/SIG=13el77ap7/EXP=1347520246/**http%3A//www.bruegel.org/nc/blog/detail/article/872-is-germany-heading-towards-a-referendum/). The upshot is that the ESM, governed by eurozone finance ministers, would have full control over disbursement of ESM funds to struggling countries, even though such decisions would affect the German government budget.
More from Schuseil (emphasis added):
Decisions of the ESM Board could only be democratically legitimated if they would need the approval of national parliaments. The German law accompanying the ESM treaty, the “ESM-Finanzierungsgesetz”, aims at ensuring the democratic basis by obliging German members of the Board to refuse decisions with impact on the German budget and that have not been accredited by the Bundestag. However, according to Professor Dietrich Murswiek (http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/_ylt=A2KLP6_2ET9Qf3EAegcDEZtG;_ylu=X3oDMTFqZG1vZW1 rBG1pdANBcnRpY2xlIEJvZHkEcG9zAzcEc2VjA01lZGlhQXJ0a WNsZUJvZHlBc3NlbWJseQ--;_ylg=X3oDMTMza3RoM25pBGludGwDY2EEbGFuZwNlbi1jYQRw c3RhaWQDMDEyYTRhNWItM2Q5MS0zYjhkLTg3YzUtYTk4NGRhZG YyMTQ0BHBzdGNhdAN0b3BpY3N8cmVzb3VyY2VzBHB0A3N0b3J5 cGFnZQ--;_ylv=0/SIG=13gittfhk/EXP=1347520246/**http%3A//www.familienunternehmen.de/media/public/pdf/sonderpublikationen/2012/hsb_109-2012.pdf) , this is legally not enforceable.
So, even though German chancellor Angela Merkel (http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/_ylt=A2KLP6_2ET9Qf3EAewcDEZtG;_ylu=X3oDMTFqZTJrMXN oBG1pdANBcnRpY2xlIEJvZHkEcG9zAzgEc2VjA01lZGlhQXJ0a WNsZUJvZHlBc3NlbWJseQ--;_ylg=X3oDMTMza3RoM25pBGludGwDY2EEbGFuZwNlbi1jYQRw c3RhaWQDMDEyYTRhNWItM2Q5MS0zYjhkLTg3YzUtYTk4NGRhZG YyMTQ0BHBzdGNhdAN0b3BpY3N8cmVzb3VyY2VzBHB0A3N0b3J5 cGFnZQ--;_ylv=0/SIG=12b4fjdmm/EXP=1347520246/**http%3A//www.businessinsider.com/blackboard/angela-merkel) and German ECB board members like Jörg Asmussen have been trying to sell the ECB/EFSF/ESM bailouts to the German electorate as they appear to increasingly realize the massive risks Germany faces if it doesn't hold the euro together, there is still a lot of concern in Germany over the ESM.
A troubling scenario for investors would be a referendum in Germany to reconcile current German law with the provisions of the new ESM treaty, which Schuseil discusses in detail at Bruegel (http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/_ylt=A2KLP6_2ET9Qf3EAfAcDEZtG;_ylu=X3oDMTFqcjE2NDh qBG1pdANBcnRpY2xlIEJvZHkEcG9zAzkEc2VjA01lZGlhQXJ0a WNsZUJvZHlBc3NlbWJseQ--;_ylg=X3oDMTMza3RoM25pBGludGwDY2EEbGFuZwNlbi1jYQRw c3RhaWQDMDEyYTRhNWItM2Q5MS0zYjhkLTg3YzUtYTk4NGRhZG YyMTQ0BHBzdGNhdAN0b3BpY3N8cmVzb3VyY2VzBHB0A3N0b3J5 cGFnZQ--;_ylv=0/SIG=13el77ap7/EXP=1347520246/**http%3A//www.bruegel.org/nc/blog/detail/article/872-is-germany-heading-towards-a-referendum/). A recent Pew survey revealed that Germany is deeply split over providing bailout aid to other eurozone member nations, with 48 percent responding that Germany should not be providing financial assistance to other countries (http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/_ylt=A2KLP6_2ET9Qf3EAfQcDEZtG;_ylu=X3oDMTFrb2pndWQ 3BG1pdANBcnRpY2xlIEJvZHkEcG9zAzEwBHNlYwNNZWRpYUFyd GljbGVCb2R5QXNzZW1ibHk-;_ylg=X3oDMTMza3RoM25pBGludGwDY2EEbGFuZwNlbi1jYQRw c3RhaWQDMDEyYTRhNWItM2Q5MS0zYjhkLTg3YzUtYTk4NGRhZG YyMTQ0BHBzdGNhdAN0b3BpY3N8cmVzb3VyY2VzBHB0A3N0b3J5 cGFnZQ--;_ylv=0/SIG=12kg4om0m/EXP=1347520246/**http%3A//www.pewglobal.org/2012/05/29/european-unity-on-the-rocks/).
And even though the Bundestag approved ESM ratification by 3/4 of the vote, there is evidence of increasing bailout fatigue among parliamentary politicians as well:
Back to September 12, though, when the Court is set to rule...
Deutsche Bank (http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/_ylt=A2KLP6_2ET9Qf3EAfgcDEZtG;_ylu=X3oDMTFrM2g5cm4 zBG1pdANBcnRpY2xlIEJvZHkEcG9zAzExBHNlYwNNZWRpYUFyd GljbGVCb2R5QXNzZW1ibHk-;_ylg=X3oDMTMza3RoM25pBGludGwDY2EEbGFuZwNlbi1jYQRw c3RhaWQDMDEyYTRhNWItM2Q5MS0zYjhkLTg3YzUtYTk4NGRhZG YyMTQ0BHBzdGNhdAN0b3BpY3N8cmVzb3VyY2VzBHB0A3N0b3J5 cGFnZQ--;_ylv=0/SIG=12bqfk50b/EXP=1347520246/**http%3A//www.businessinsider.com/blackboard/deutsche-bank) economists Stefan Schneider, Barbara Böttcher, Nicolaus Heinen, and Heiko Peters suggest that the drama surrounding the Court's ESM decision is typical and to be expected.
In a recent note to clients, they explained that "almost every parliamentary ratification of major European decisions has been accompanied by constitutional complaints in Germany. They have become a well-known element of German Euro politics during the past two decades. The judgments have often strengthened the role of the German legislature."
The economists conclude by looking beyond September 12 to the future of the debate in Germany:
Germany’s Constitutional Court is increasingly becoming a forum for Euro-skeptic voices to articulate their arguments from a constitutional point of view. These will likely not be the last constitutional complaints on EMU politics in Germany...It remains to be seen whether the Court will remain as constructive as in its previous judgments, weighing democratic legitimacy carefully against considerations of systemic stability and capacities of other constitutional bodies."
Dooooooommm....