Gold is going Parabolic from here

[Large Sarge]

worth a thousand words below

[Large Sarge]

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/goldrunner092712.html

[Shami-Amourae]

No it's not.

[Sparky]

It's been parabolic for a decade.

Adam Hamilton pointed this out in 2004:



http://www.zealllc.com/c2004/Zeal090304A.gif

The first important thing to note on this secular gold bull graph is the typical parabolic shape of a secular gold bull. All secular bulls that ultimately culminate in bubbles exhibit this distinctive pattern of price increases continuously accelerating over time. As this yellow parabola shows, this acceleration is almost imperceptible in the early years, picks up dramatically in the middle years, and is breathtaking in the final years. This pattern was also witnessed in both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 (http://www.zealllc.com/2001/strateq.htm) as well during their own recent secular bulls.

http://www.zealllc.com/2004/au3stage.htm

[beefsteak]

Going with Large Sarge + Sparky +Sinclair on this, Shami...parabolic is $1,764, which is EXACTLY why PoG is struggling here.

I guess a case could be made for your position depending upon the time interval through which you are viewing price action. 15Min? 2Hr?
Something short-term seems to be what your assessment is based upon.

Care to elaborate?

[Uncle Salty]

It's going parabolic, the question is when?

I have no fucking clue.

[Shami-Amourae]

Going with Large Sarge + Sparky +Sinclair on this, Shami...parabolic is $1,764, which is EXACTLY why PoG is struggling here.

I guess a case could be made for your position depending upon the time interval through which you are viewing price action. 15Min? 2Hr?
Something short-term seems to be what your assessment is based upon.

Care to elaborate?


I don't think technicals mean much of anything when we have a centrally planned economy with a bunch of inbred Zio-bankers with the ability to print money out of thin air. I have no evidence to back this up. It's a gut feeling, and I hope it's wrong. What I think will happen is there will be a slow rise, and then China or some group will announce a global Gold back currency and Gold will be revalued overnight. I will be impressed if we break $2,000 Gold this year.

I would love Gold/Silver to skyrocket without inflation attached to it, cash out, and buy up a bunch of real estate.

[Sparky]

There's really no debate about gold going parabolic. See chart below. It's been on a parabolic curve since 2001, so I'm not sure what the discussion is on that. The question is when it will stop going parabolic. Maybe this is what Shami is talking about, but that's inconsistent with his original statement of "No it's not". And I'm not sure what beefsteak is referring to in saying "PoG is struggling here". I look at that curve below, and I don't see it struggling at all.

The curve even flies in the face of price manipulation. I'm sure price manipulation happens through tactical buying and selling that periodically causes the price to exhibit some erratic behavior, but in no way has that been able to break the long term parabola. If you look at the curve, it has withstood all the jerking around, both up and down. It's been fukking majestic.

Having said that, a true parabola becomes asymptotic to some vertical line, which means at some point time will have to stand still as the price goes to infinity. We know that can't happen, so we know that there will be a bust, as the price has to re-set for another generation. This is the "cash out" point that Shami refers to. It can happen naturally through a normal market in which all the potential buyers are eventually exhausted, or it could happen artificially through some type of sovereign intervention.

3771

[slowbell]

Having said that, a true parabola becomes asymptotic to some vertical line, which means at some point time will have to stand still as the price goes to infinity. We know that can't happen, so we know that there will be a bust, as the price has to re-set for another generation. This is the "cash out" point that Shami refers to. It can happen naturally through a normal market in which all the potential buyers are eventually exhausted, or it could happen artificially through some type of sovereign intervention.

3771

Which basically means that if gold truly goes parabolic, gold will just be the next 'bubble' and we need to time when to cash out before it crashes. Just like some smart folks did with real estate, or IT before that.

When I see gold go up, I just see the purchasing power of my fiat paper go down. That's why I never get too excited when gold goes up. I like gold because, so far since history, you can own it, forget it, and it will always be a safe store of value. If gold goes parabolic...then, I need to pay more attention, time when to get the most 'increased' value, and transfer that value to whatever is deflated in value.

Silver is different, different fundamentals. I could easily see silver truly go parabolic where the price goes insane, yet everything else in terms of fiat purchasing doesn't change.

[Libertarian_Guard]

http://i46.tinypic.com/k1xkba.jpg


http://i48.tinypic.com/34dhfme.jpg


Parabolic. I'll go along with that!

[Steal]

Silver is different, different fundamentals. I could easily see silver truly go parabolic where the price goes insane, yet everything else in terms of fiat purchasing doesn't change.

I tend to agree and with something Sparky mentioned (This is the "cash out" point that Shami refers to. It can happen naturally through a normal market in which all the potential buyers are eventually exhausted, or it could happen artificially through some type of sovereign intervention. )
With silver being such a 'tight' market would it not surpass gold at an alarming % rate of increase? before the buyers said too much is too much? or would it be a moment where everyone sells grandmas stearling spoons as scrap, then a moon shot? I mean, when their is no more silver......(guess this drags into how many actual true silver mines their are and how many are bi product mines.) Guess one might want to play the GS ratio at that point and trade up a % of holdings into gold.

[1970 silver art]

Which basically means that if gold truly goes parabolic, gold will just be the next 'bubble' and we need to time when to cash out before it crashes. Just like some smart folks did with real estate, or IT before that.



If gold really went parabolic to the point that it was really in a "bubble", then you will have a situation like you did in 1998 and 1999 when tech stocks and dot-com stocks kept on skyrocketing up until it just crashed down in 2000. That same situation that happened with tech and dot-com stocks in the late '90's and the resulting 2000 crash could happen with gold. You never know.

[1970 silver art]

Silver is different, different fundamentals. I could easily see silver truly go parabolic where the price goes insane, yet everything else in terms of fiat purchasing doesn't change.

Silver is also a smaller market where a big player like JPM can easily manipulate it with it's paper naked short positions like they have been doing in the past and like they are currently doing now.

[Golden]

What will war with Iran do to pm's?
I do not believe there will be a new gold backed currency.
I could see the GSR tightening to 30/1.

[Shami-Amourae]

What will war with Iran do to pm's?
I do not believe there will be a new gold backed currency.
I could see the GSR tightening to 30/1.

Naturally all prices would go up since it would cause oil to skyrocket. If oil skyrockets then the operating costs for mining also skyrockets and that will directly effect metals, despite any manipulation. Gold will go up for many other reasons too, like fear.

[vacuum]

As far as the 'cash out' point, I've heard that gold isn't so much a hedge against inflation as it is a hedge against instability. Based on that thinking, the time to cash out is the time of maximum instability.

[Shami-Amourae]

As far as the 'cash out' point, I've heard that gold isn't so much a hedge against inflation as it is a hedge against instability. Based on that thinking, the time to cash out is the time of maximum instability.

At maximum instability you wont be able to 'cash out' anything...

[vacuum]

At maximum instability you wont be able to 'cash out' anything...

So the time the price is highest is the same time you are unable to sell. That sounds about right.

[Neuro]

So the time the price is highest is the same time you are unable to sell. That sounds about right.
You can always trade your silver for TP-rolls with Ponce. A roll for a roll is his standing offer I believe...

[Sparky]

At maximum instability you wont be able to 'cash out' anything...


So the time the price is highest is the same time you are unable to sell. That sounds about right.

The highest price will come at the time of the greatest anticipation/fear of future instability.

[Neuro]

The highest price will come at the time of the greatest anticipation/fear of future instability.
I believe this is the truth. Iow IF the USD is collapsing through a hyperinflation, you will not get the highest price in terms of purchasing power in the last day of hyperinflation, you will get it WHEN it dawns on most that this is the inevitable path!

Certainly in number of USD, you'll get most digits the last day, but the next day they will be worthless... I read that in the last day of German hyperinflation, the entire amount of cash Marks in Germany was only worth a few ounces of gold...

[Serpo]

sorry parabolic is over................
Gold & Silver Down on Monday Asian Open As Banksters Given Naked Shorting Green Light

http://gold-silver.us/forum/showthread.php?63970-Gold-amp-Silver-Down-on-Monday-Asian-Open-As-Banksters-Given-Naked-Shorting-Green-Light&p=577144#post577144

[Libertarian_Guard]

http://i48.tinypic.com/2prctwh.jpg