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mick silver
18th March 2013, 05:34 AM
Greenspan Discusses the End of the Fed ... What Comes Next?
By Anthony Wile
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Anthony Wile

An interesting article in Forbes entitled "If Alan Greenspan (http://www.thedailybell.com/floatWindow.cfm?id=2080) Wants To 'End The Fed', Times Must Be Changing," informs us that the predictions we made long ago about the Federal Reserve (http://www.thedailybell.com/floatWindow.cfm?id=1855) are coming true. The author of the article is Nathan Lewis, an economist, former strategist for institutional investors and author of a best-selling book Gold, the Once and Future Money.
Our predictions regarding the Fed were first published in May 2009, and were related to a congressional hearing that showed Fed representatives to be woefully unprepared. This was the first inkling we had that the institution itself was in perhaps terminal trouble. Here's what we wrote at the time in an article entited, "Beginning of the End? Fed Cannot Account for $9 Trillion (http://www.thedailybell.com/384/Federal-Reserve-cannot-account-for-9-trillion.html)"...
We saw the interview with Elizabeth Coleman on TV and then again and again and again on youtube.com. It is entitled "Is Anyone Minding the Store at the Federal Reserve?" and it is one of the single most astonishing moments (or minutes) ever manifested or preserved in this already-amazing digital era. A century ago, when the powers-that-be pushed through the act that set up the American Federal Reserve – which basically kicked off the central banking (http://www.thedailybell.com/floatWindow.cfm?id=2958) era in America and abroad – the kind of technological ubiquity offered by the Internet would certainly have been seen as a major and alarming challenge. Well, it is.
The Grayson/Coleman confrontation has to be seen to be believed, and even then it may not seem quite believable. How could the Fed, in all its monied majesty, offer up someone so unprepared to answer the questions of a single quiet and persevering congressman? Grayson is a liberal, socialist (http://www.thedailybell.com/floatWindow.cfm?id=1901)-oriented legislator – a good government type who is fast making a reputation for taking on government corruption. He is pro-regulation but has not been shy about confronting high profile institutions. He may not want to shut down the Federal Reserve but he certainly wants to make it operate under additional scrutiny. And he makes it clear he believes the Fed needs it. And now Coleman knows it.
Our article continues as follows:
The Fed has survived numerous challenges, but always these were fairly restricted to legislators and others that traveled in the Fed's ambit. There was no chance that the Fed's inner-most workings would be broadcast to the world, and that the world would see and comment. The Internet has changed all that. The basic trouble with the Fed – and with all central banks – is that the work they do is not defensible within the broader context of democratic rhetoric.
Since the article was published some four years ago now, the agitation against the Fed and central banking generally has grown worse, as we predicted. There is no real support for central banking. It is a central planning relic of a bygone age when justifications could be made about a tiny handful of men running the world on behalf of everyone else.
But the Internet has allowed people to question this meme (http://www.thedailybell.com/floatWindow.cfm?id=654) – and as there is no good answer, the questions have persisted and the skepticism has grown – along with central banking's incompetence in solving a Great Recession for which they were evidently and obviously responsible. Eventually, I figure it will burst the confines of the Internet and become a mainstream problem.
It is probably inevitable. And now a further instance of the gradual deflation of this dominant social theme (http://www.thedailybell.com/floatWindow.cfm?id=652) has emerged: The most famous Fed chairman of them all, Alan Greenspan, is questioning not only the functioning of the Fed but its reason for existence. His statements, made in a January interview, continue to resonate – and circulate – and recently resulted in the Forbes article referred to above.
Let's see what Alan Greenspan (according to Forbes) has been saying recently:
"We have at this particular stage a fiat money (http://www.thedailybell.com/floatWindow.cfm?id=803) which is essentially money printed by a government and it's usually a central bank which is authorized to do so. Some mechanism has got to be in place that restricts the amount of money which is produced, either a gold standard (http://www.thedailybell.com/floatWindow.cfm?id=2453) or a currency board, because unless you do that all of history suggest that inflation will take hold with very deleterious effects on economic activity... There are numbers of us, myself included, who strongly believe that we did very well in the 1870 to 1914 period with an international gold standard."
In the same January 2011 interview, Greenspan apparently wondered out loud if we even require a central bank! When Alan Greenspan starts to talk about "End the Fed," things are changing.
The article even refers to our friend and Daily Bell interviewee, Edward Griffin (http://www.thedailybell.com/floatWindow.cfm?id=2101):
Edward Griffin's The Creature from Jekyll Island is an excellent account of how the Fed came into being. The fact that this 1994 book is, today, the #2 bestselling book in Amazon.com's Banks and Banking category, the #2 bestselling book in the Economic Policy and Development category, and the #4 bestselling book in the Economic Policy category, shows why crowds start chanting "End the Fed" wherever Ron Paul (http://www.thedailybell.com/floatWindow.cfm?id=859) turns up, with no prompting from him.
The article refers to Money Power (http://www.thedailybell.com/floatWindow.cfm?id=679) itself:
In recent years, any attentive watcher has noticed that the Fed has been working rather closely with certain "Too Big to Fail" banks, in ways that are not necessarily in the public's best interest. The fact that the Fed is likely heavily influenced by a certain well-known European banking family — a criticism that president Andrew Jackson applied to its predecessor the Second Bank of the United States, just before he killed it — is all the more reason to eliminate its influence in U.S. affairs.
And here is how the article ends:
As a member of the "keep the Fed" camp in prior years, it seems to me now that we will most likely come to that point, in not too many years, where replacing the Fed will be the best and even the easiest path ... End the Fed.
For those who think we're too confident about the evolution of this dominant social theme, please think about this: The Fed these days is reportedly buying most or all of US Treasury auctions and already owns well over US$1 trillion of American debt. The Fed is buying this debt because no one else will. That's a lot of unproductive paper to hold.
Not only that, but the US government owes so much money on its national debt that the Fed must keep interest rates at almost zero or debt payments would balloon until almost the entire federal budget would be consumed by them.
This means, like Sisyphus climbing up the mountain with a rock on his back over and over, the Fed is doomed to buy US debt at zero percent for an unforeseeable – infinite – amount of time. This is, of course, an insupportable scenario. And thus, we've pointed out that the dollar reserve system basically died in 2007-2008 – and later on, Alan Greenspan apparently said something similar himself!
The system, it seems, eventually MUST collapse. There will be no war, no devaluation, no bailout that will likely save the dollar reserve system. Instead there will be ... a change.
The wise men running central banking are probably as aware of the problems with the dollar economy as anyone else; in fact, more so. They've even apparently started a faux movement to nationalize central banking so as to keep control via the political system directly (see yesterday's article on this topic (ttps://www.thedailybell.com/28834/Bombshell-Confirmation-the-Paper-Money-Hoax-Is-Real)) but even this movement is probably bound to fail.
Another possibility that is obviously being considered is the creation of a global paper currency via the IMF (http://www.thedailybell.com/floatWindow.cfm?id=1823)'s SDRs (http://www.thedailybell.com/floatWindow.cfm?id=1828). And finally, the powers that be are probably, reluctantly, considering a state-managed gold standard. Greenspan is apparently going to be a spokesman for this view.
We analyze and follow elite memes but it is not possible at this point to say what exactly will occur. Best case, a money system emerges that is NOT controlled by nation-states and resembles somewhat the pre-Civil War (http://www.thedailybell.com/floatWindow.cfm?id=1876) US system of free banking (http://www.thedailybell.com/floatWindow.cfm?id=1941) and money competition generally.
The pre-Civil War monetary system created the "greatest nation on Earth" and one that has now morphed into a worldwide empire. But the monetary system that has accompanied this expansion may well be ending. What comes next is unknown. Hopefully it will be freer and fairer than the central banking structure of the 20th century.

keehah
18th January 2023, 05:18 PM
"If Alan Greenspan Wants To 'End The Fed', Times Must Be Changing,"

Change they can CBDC in.

ukcolumn.org: The Crisis of Western Political Systems (https://www.ukcolumn.org/blogs/the-crisis-of-western-political-systems)
14th December 2022

keehah
16th March 2023, 05:53 PM
thehill.com: The Fed’s quantitative easing gamble costs taxpayers billions (https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3816304-the-feds-quantitative-easing-gamble-cost-taxpayers-billions/)

01/17/23
The year 2023 is shaping up to be a challenging one for the Federal Reserve System.

The Fed is on track to post its first annual operating loss since 1915. Per our estimates, the loss will be large, perhaps $100 billion or more, and this cash loss does not count the unrealized mark-to-market losses on the Fed’s massive securities portfolio. An operating loss of $100 billion would, if properly accounted for, leave the Fed with negative capital of $58 billion at year-end 2023.

At current interest rates, the Fed’s operating losses will impact the federal budget for years, requiring new tax revenues to offset the continuing loss of billions of dollars in the Fed’s former remittances to the U.S. Treasury.

federalreserve.gov: Federal Reserve announces July launch for the FedNow Service (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20230315a.htm)

Press ReleaseMarch 15, 2023

The Federal Reserve announced that the FedNow Service will start operating in July and provided details on preparations for launch.

The first week of April, the Federal Reserve will begin the formal certification of participants for launch of the service. Early adopters will complete a customer testing and certification program, informed by feedback from the FedNow Pilot Program, to prepare for sending live transactions through the system.

Certification encompasses a comprehensive testing curriculum with defined expectations for operational readiness and network experience. In June, the Federal Reserve and certified participants will conduct production validation activities to confirm readiness for the July launch.

"We couldn't be more excited about the forthcoming FedNow launch, which will enable every participating financial institution, the smallest to the largest and from all corners of the country, to offer a modern instant payment solution," said Ken Montgomery, first vice president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and FedNow program executive. "With the launch drawing near, we urge financial institutions and their industry partners to move full steam ahead with preparations to join the FedNow Service."...

The FedNow Service will launch with a robust set of core clearing and settlement functionality and value-added features. More features and enhancements will be added in future releases to continue supporting safety, resiliency and innovation in the industry as the FedNow network expands in the coming years.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jYWE7QgYGvM

keehah
19th March 2023, 01:14 PM
nytimes.com: Opinion: (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/17/opinion/silicon-valley-bank-federal-reserve.html) The Fed’s Balance Sheet Looks Like Silicon Valley Bank’s (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/17/opinion/silicon-valley-bank-federal-reserve.html)

March 17, 2023
Like Silicon Valley Bank, the Fed is getting squeezed from two sides. It’s paying higher interest rates to banks on the reserves they keep at the Fed, as well as on borrowing in what’s called the reverse repo market. But the amount it earns on the bonds it owns has not gone up much. It acquired a lot of bonds when rates were very low. Meanwhile, because rates have risen, the market value of those generally low-yielding bonds has fallen, as shown by this next chart, which I pieced together from Fed financial reports...

https://static01.nyt.com/images/2023/03/17/opinion/17coy-newsletter-fedlosses/17coy-newsletter-fedlosses-jumbo.png?quality=75&auto=webp
[~1.2 trillion in bond investment losses in 2022]

Donald Kohn, a former vice chair of the Fed, and William English, a former top staffer, wrote (https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2022/06/01/what-if-the-federal-reserve-books-losses-because-of-its-quantitative-easing/) in June that the Fed isn’t designed to be a profit-making institution. They conceded that if the Fed kept losing money, its borrowing needs could potentially become so big that they would interfere with the conduct of monetary policy. In that case, they wrote, the Fed would need financial support from the Treasury. But they said that would happen only in the case of “truly colossal and highly improbable losses.”...

Andrew Levin... used to work for Kohn and English at the Fed and admires them “immensely,” but he disagrees with the bond-buying program that led to today’s Fed losses... teamed up with Bill Nelson, an executive vice president and chief economist at the Bank Policy Institute, on a piece (https://www.mercatus.org/research/policy-briefs/federal-reserves-balance-sheet-costs-taxpayers) for the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. They wrote:


“It might seem extraordinary that a U.S. government institution could conduct any program that is likely to incur a cost of nearly $1 trillion to taxpayers. And it might seem equally extraordinary that such a program could be undertaken without congressional approval or even any forewarning about the magnitude of the risks. Yet that is the expected outcome of the Federal Reserve’s securities purchase program known as QE4 (its fourth round of quantitative easing).”

That estimated cost of nearly $1 trillion is based on a calculation that the Fed would have remitted about $100 billion a year to the Treasury over the coming decade if not for losses incurred from the fourth round of quantitative easing. That round began in 2020 in response to the pandemic.

After hearing from both sides, I think the Fed did go too far with its fourth round of bond-buying, which not only contributed to the spike in the inflation rate but also led to today’s losses.

monty
19th March 2023, 03:32 PM
they finally stuck a pin in their big paper balloon.

ziero0
19th March 2023, 03:48 PM
Guess the Fed expired and this is what comes next.

Things that are similar are not the same.

keehah
5th August 2023, 10:59 AM
thehill.com (https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3532683-who-owns-the-feds-massive-losses/): Who Owns the Fed’s Massive Losses? (https://www.aei.org/op-eds/who-owns-the-feds-massive-losses/)

06/23/22
We estimate that at the end of May, the Federal Reserve had an unrecognized mark-to-market loss of about $540 billion on its $8.8 trillion portfolio of Treasury bonds and mortgage securities. This loss, which will only get larger as interest rates increase, is more than 13 times the Federal Reserve System’s consolidated capital of $41 billion.

Unlike regulated financial institutions, no matter how big the losses it may face, the Federal Reserve will not fail. It can continue to print money even if it is deeply insolvent. But, according to the Federal Reserve Act (https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/fract.htm), Fed losses should impact its shareholders, who are the commercial bank members of the 12 district Federal Reserve banks...


“The shareholders of every Federal reserve bank shall be held individually responsible, equally and ratably, and not one for another, for all contracts, debts, and engagements of such bank to the extent of the amount subscriptions to such stock at the par value thereof in addition to the amount subscribed.”

This unenviable financial situation — huge mark-to-market investment losses and looming negative operating income — is the predictable consequence of the balance sheet the Fed has created. The Fed is paying rising rates of interest on bank reserves and reverse repurchase transactions while its balance sheet is stuffed with low-yielding long-term fixed rate securities. In short, the Fed’s income dynamics resemble those of a typical 1980s savings and loan.

In 2011, the Federal Reserve announced its official position (https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/somas-unrealized-loss-what-does-it-mean-20180813.htm) regarding realized losses on its investment portfolio and system operating losses:


“In the unlikely scenario in which realized losses were sufficiently large enough to result in an overall net income loss for the Reserve Banks, the Federal Reserve would still meet its financial obligations to cover operating expenses. In that case, remittances to the Treasury would be suspended and a deferred asset would be recorded on the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet.”



Under this unique accounting policy, operating losses do not reduce the Federal Reserve’s reported capital and surplus. A positive reserve bank surplus account is ensured by increasing an imaginary “deferred asset (https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/files/bstfinaccountingmanual.pdf)” account district reserve banks will book to offset an operating loss, no matter how large the loss. Among other things, this accounting “innovation” ensures that the Fed can keep paying dividends on its stock. Similar creative “regulatory accounting” has not been utilized since the 1980s when it was used to prop up failing savings institutions.

The Fed’s stated intention is to monetize operating losses and back any newly created currency with an imaginary “deferred asset.” It is impossible to imagine that the authors of the Federal Reserve Act would have approved of allowing the Fed to create an imaginary “deferred asset” as a mechanism to hide the fact that the Fed is depleting its cushion of loss-absorbing assets while paying banks dividends and interest on their reserve balances, when the act itself makes member banks as stockholders liable for Federal Reserve district bank operating losses.

keehah
15th September 2023, 11:23 AM
mises.org: Lots of Red Ink at the Fed (https://mises.org/wire/lots-red-ink-fed)

09/12/2023
The Federal Reserve has officially reported a loss of $57 billion for the first six months of 2023. Quite a number! So the “Federal Reserve Banks Combined Quarterly Financial Report as of June 30, 2023” (https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/combined-quarterly-financial-reports-unaudited.htm) (CQFR)—a little-known document—is especially notable for its red ink. We can anticipate an annual loss of over $100 billion for 2023 and for the losses to continue into 2024.1 (https://mises.org/wire/lots-red-ink-fed#footnote1_ljedtob)

How does a central bank, especially the world’s greatest and most important central bank, lose tens of billions of dollars in six months?...

The combined FRBs are intended to always be profitable because of their unique monopoly in issuing U.S. dollar paper currency. This is a very lucrative privilege which means together they have $2.3 trillion of zero interest cost funding from the dollar bills circulating around the country and the world, which they can invest in interest earning assets. (They print up some money and use it to buy Treasury bonds, simply said.) But instead of making profits, as the combined Fed reliably did for more than 100 years, it is now making giant losses, a historic reversal.

The CQFR shows that in the first six months of 2023 the combined Fed had $88 billion in interest income, but $141 billion in interest expense. So it paid out in interest $53 billion more than it received, and also had to pay its overhead expenses of over $4 billion.

Why doesn’t it have more interest income? Because the Fed engaged to the tune of about $5 trillion in one of the most classic of financial risks: borrowing short and lending long, and now interest rates have gone very far against it and the risk has turned into real losses.

The CQFR shows on page 22 that on June 30 the combined Fed owned $5.5 trillion in Treasury Securities with an average yield of 1.96%, and $2.6 trillion of mortgage-backed securities yielding on average 2.20%. In short, it invested in massive amounts of very long-term fixed rate assets and locked in for years a historically low yield of about 2%. Meanwhile, it was funding $5 trillion of these assets with floating rate deposits from banks and borrowings in the form of repurchase agreements, the cost of which rose to over 5%.

You don’t need a degree in banking or a Ph.D. in economics to know that lending money at 2% while you are borrowing money at 5% is a losing proposition. That is what our Federal Reserve Banks did and continue to do.

On top of this, as disclosed in the footnotes of the CQFR on page 7, when the combined Fed’s investments were marked to market on June 30, they had a market value loss of over $1 trillion, or a market value loss of 23 times the Fed’s stated capital.

The CQFR reports a total capital of about $42 billion ($35.6 billion of paid-in capital from the member commercial banks and $6.8 billion of retained earnings, called “surplus”). But note: This total capital is much less than the $57 billion reported loss for the six months of 2023, to which must be added the loss for the later months of 2022 of $17 billion. This total $74 billion of accumulated losses by June 30 must be subtracted from the retained earnings and thus from total capital. But the Fed does not do this—it misleadingly books its losses as an asset (!), which it calls a “deferred asset”-- a practice highly surprising to anyone who passed Accounting 101. Why does the Fed do this? Presumably it does not wish to show itself with negative capital. However, negative capital is the reality.

Here are the combined Fed’s correct capital accounts as of June 30, based on Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. They result in a capital of negative $32 billion:

Paid-in capital $36 billion
Retained earnings ($68 billion)
Total capital ($32 billion)

The Fed wants you to believe that neither its negative capital nor its giant losses matter because it is the Fed and can print money. Many economists agree.

But does it matter that the Fed’s losses will cost not only it, but also the Treasury and the taxpayers, over $100 billion this year and more in the future? Does it matter that on a combined basis its accumulated losses are greater than its private stockholders’ paid-in capital? Does it matter that with negative equity under standard accounting, it is technically insolvent? All of these can be debated, but the numbers certainly do get one’s attention.