Gold & Silver have not yet BOTTOMED

[Spectrism]

This is an email from Larry Edelson. He has been correct on most things he has reported. I have to give him credit for knowing his stuff. Read the following with the understanding that many things can happen outside the normal business cycles,,, like world war, major calamities, plague outbreak and zombie contagion.
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Important: The Dow/Gold Breakout ...


by Larry Edelson


Dear Spectrism,


http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/2704/Larry-Edelson.jpg


For a couple of years now I've maintained my view that the Dow Industrials and broad U.S. equity markets were entering a new bull market. One of the tools I used to come to that conclusion back in 2008 was the ratio of the Dow Industrials to the price of gold.
I wrote extensively about it in my July 2008 issue of Real Wealth Report. I also reported on it several times in other pieces I wrote. Today, I want to update the analysis for you.
First some background. At the peak of the ratio in the year 2000, the Dow Industrials would have purchased just over 51 ounces of gold. That's because the Dow was at a high in real, inflation-adjusted terms, while gold was at its bottom at the $255 to $275 level.
During the financial crisis of 2007 – 2009, as equities plunged and gold rallied (since its bottom in 2000) the ratio collapsed all the way down to the 6 to 7 level.
In other words, in terms of gold — what I like to call "honest money" — the Dow Industrials had lost more than 87 percent of the entire equity bull market from 1980 to 1999.



http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/2704/chart1.jpg (http://gold-silver.us)






In my Real Wealth Report issue of July 2008, I called for the bottom in the ratio to come in around the 5 to 6 level.
It bottomed slightly above that level, then retested it with a slightly lower low in September 2011.
Since then, stocks have vastly outperformed gold.


As a result, the ratio of the Dow Industrials to gold has widened back out, and has broken out of a resistance level as you can see on the chart.
Now trading at about the 10-to-1 level, the Dow/Gold ratio is set to widen much further.
So what does this all mean? And what does it hold for the future for the Dow? For gold?
I'll answer those questions now. But I urge you to put your thinking cap on, because the analysis of the Dow/Gold ratio is not easy to grasp, yet it's critically important to understanding the future.
FIRST, the collapse in the Dow to Gold ratio was not caused simply by a crash in equity prices. It was also due to a crash in the value of the dollar, as reflected in the soaring value of gold from the year 2000 on.
SECOND, the breakout in the ratio means that the Dow is now beginning to inflation-adjust, to reflect the lower value of the dollar (as reflected in the higher price of gold).
This inflation-adjusting of equities is perfectly normal and one of the main reasons I am very bullish equities over the next several years.
All asset classes eventually recalibrate their price levels to the new reality of the purchasing power of the underlying currency, which in this case, is the dollar, which in turn, is nowhere near what it was worth back in the year 2000.

A simple exercise here will show you how the Dow will adjust. For the Dow/Gold ratio to climb back to the 18 to 20 resistance level you see on my chart, the Dow would have to explode higher to the 28,000 level, assuming gold's current price of roughly $1,400.


http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/2704/image1.jpg


Based on the Dow/Gold ratio, the Dow could eventually hit 20,600 ... or higher!



Naturally, the price of gold is not going to remain at $1,400. It will probably fall back to the $1,030 level, which is my target for gold's bottom. Let's say it does that. Then a 20-to-1 ratio for Dow/Gold, with gold at $1,030, would still imply a Dow eventually hitting the 20,600 level.
And what would happen if gold were to move to $2,000 ... $3,000 ... or higher? Then to reach a 20-to-1 ratio, the Dow would have to explode even higher.
At $2,000 gold, a 20:1 ratio would see the Dow eventually hit 40,000.
Take the other extreme: Gold falls to say, $600. A 20:1 ratio puts the Dow at 12,000.



Do this exercise for any price level of gold you wish, and you will see that the downside risk in the Dow is minimal and the upside potential is enormous.
That's not to say there won't be pullbacks in the Dow. There will be. This kind of analysis simply shows you that ...
THIRD, the monetary system has changed dramatically. More specifically, the dollar has lost another huge chunk of purchasing power ― value that it will most likely never get back, even if the dollar stages a rally in the Forex markets, as it has been doing and will do some more.
Naturally, the ratio between the Dow and gold will vary considerably over the next few years.
But given the breakout from the bottom of the ratio ... and the normal tendency from all markets, no matter what they are, to retrace good portions of what they have lost ...
I believe it's a very safe assumption to make that the Dow/Gold ratio will continue to climb. And that means much higher prices to come for the Dow, and U.S. equity markets in general.
You can do this sort of exercise with any asset class you want. You can look at real estate values in terms of honest money, gold ... even with collectibles such as art.
And each time you do that comparison, with the price of gold, you will find that the value of the dollar has changed dramatically over the last 12 years, so much so that almost all asset prices will eventually be forced to inflate much higher.
As for gold and silver right now, the bounce you've seen is nothing more than a dead cat bounce. The precious metals, and commodities in general, have NOT bottomed.
So please don't buy yet, and don't fall prey to the pitches from all the snake-oil salesmen out there who are trying so desperately to sell you metal and mining shares now so they can earn an extra commission.
I repeat my warnings:
Gold will not bottom until it hits major long-term support at $1,030.
Silver will not bottom until it tests major long-term support at the $17 level.
If you've acted on any of my suggestions to purchase inverse ETFs such as the ProShares UltraShort Gold (GLL) and the Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3x Shares (DUST) ... or even the ProShares UltraShort Silver (ZSL) for a play on silver's downside ...
Continue to hold those positions!
Best wishes,
Larry
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com

---------------------------end of email

[mamboni]

I disagree with the entire thesis presented here. 90% is pure circular logic and numbers games. And it flies in the face of the credit supercycle and subcycle plots of stocks, gold, silver and the dollar. It also completely ignores the fundamentals (i.e. PE ratios for stocks are at historic highs, over 2 SD above the historic mean, which indicates a top soon).

This guy completely ignores market manipulation by the FED. The DOW and S&P have diverged from the real economy because hot money from the FED is regurgutating through JPM and feeding into the equities. There is no fundamental economic growth driving the stocks higher - it is purely a credit driven bubble.

The only way for the great credit supercycle to reset so as to clean out all the bad debt and set the stage for a genuine economic recovery and new bull market in stocks is through the pricing of gold. Gold must be priced much higher in dollars to recollateralize the leveraged and bloated balance sheets of governments and private entities. The gold-DOW ratio is going to 1:1 or even 2:1 before the credit system turns over. For 5,000 years gold has been the true north reference point, the ground state of credit and money. Gold connects the virtual paper economy to the real world economy and resets valuations. The present paper credit system is still floating far too high above the valuations justified by the real world. The gold price will recalibrate the system and restore it to ground state. The gold price must go alot higher for this to happen; or the paper credit valuations must deflate massively - or some combination in between.

We may be just hairless monkeys; but we know the value of physical gold and silver!





War on Gold and Silver (http://www.brotherjohnf.com/archives/162258)

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40175.html


http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2013/Apr/dollar-gold.gif (http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40175.html)
marketoracle.co.uk / By Michael Noonan / April 28, 2013 – 12:40 PM GMT

War [unofficially] declared on gold and silver!

The gloves are off, and central bankers are on a full frontal assault against all [paper] holders of gold and silver. Ironically, that very overt assault is the biggest clue of how fearful those in power really are. Fear, a sign of weakness, and the New World Order does not want anyone snooping behind their curtain of Oz.

Remember the adage, “Follow the money,” the paper trail? All of the Western countries drowning in debt, being force-fed to take on more debt as the only solution, are symptoms, and that is where central bankers want you to remain focused. They do not want anyone to follow the money in reverse to discover the cause: their fiat power is purely imaginary, just like the true value of what they issue, worthless paper!

We covered how those in control will stop at nothing to maintain it in our previous commentary, Central Bankers: You Are Golden Toast On A Silver Spoon, [click on http://bit.ly/13nLItm if you missed it, along with important growing demand.]

This is the Rothschild formula that has worked ever since Mayer Amschel Bauer turned fiat alchemy into gold and built the House of Rothschild. Lend, lend, lend money, and demand gold as payment in return is the essence of how it works. People refuse to learn from history. “Give me control of a nation’s money, and I care not who makes the laws.”

It is the lethal simplicity of this statement that has been unfolding on the world stage for hundreds of years for everyone to see. Few have paid attention.

You saw this when the United States went bankrupt in 1933, and the foreign-owned Federal Reserve took over this nation’s money supply, pushed out and destroyed any and all gold and silver-backed currency, and replaced it with the commercial debt instruments in circulation, Federal Reserve Notes, [FRNs]. What backs FRNs? Your imagination! That, and the threat of the existing police state.

What is a Euro? Nothing but more imaginary money, backed solely by the belief that is has value. This is a large part of why the attack on gold was so relentless. The NWO wants to crush any idea of imagining an alternative to their fiat control.

Those who understand the value of that barbaric relic are going to be the clear winners. Those who chose to hold paper were the biggest losers, stopped out, washed out by a tsunami of no-margin-required-short-selling. It was the JPMorgan version of, “I will huff, I will puff, and I will blow your paper house down.” That scenario worked against all except those who built their financial “house” with physical silver and gold.

(read more at the link above)

[Spectrism]

I can see where you would think this is circular logic since using charts of fake numbers can only yield fake numbers- temporarily. I thought the same thing over the last few years, yet this guy has been right every time.

The majority of the people have confidence in the system. Even if you went back into the 1930s, I think you would find that the majority of the people expected the government to bail them out. This is why you cannot apply pure logic to any market system. And this is why there are cycles of boom and bust with emotional decision-making and relying on a corrupt government to run the money system.

Let this thread be a notice that we can see some unexpected things to happen. The game by the controllers is to steal the wealth of everybody else. To do that, they will arrange unexpected events.

[mamboni]

I can see where you would think this is circular logic since using charts of fake numbers can only yield fake numbers- temporarily. I thought the same thing over the last few years, yet this guy has been right every time.

The majority of the people have confidence in the system. Even if you went back into the 1930s, I think you would find that the majority of the people expected the government to bail them out. This is why you cannot apply pure logic to any market system. And this is why there are cycles of boom and bust with emotional decision-making and relying on a corrupt government to run the money system.

Let this thread be a notice that we can see some unexpected things to happen. The game by the controllers is to steal the wealth of everybody else. To do that, they will arrange unexpected events.

People and markets can be irrational, no doubt. But it is encouraging to note that in contradistinction to 1980, the major determinant of gold valuation vis-a-vis the dollar and credit markets will be the peoples of Asia and the middle east, rather than those of the USA and western Europe. And these peoples have a long and hallowed tradition of holding gold as the only true wealth and money. They have not been brainwashed into confusing gold with imaginary fiat money like the west has.

[Spectrism]

People and markets can be irrational, no doubt. But it is encouraging to note that in contradistinction to 1980, the major determinant of gold valuation vis-a-vis the dollar and credit markets will be the peoples of Asia and the middle east, rather than those of the USA and western Europe. And these peoples have a long and hallowed tradition of holding gold as the only true wealth and money. They have not been brainwashed into confusing gold with imaginary fiat money like the west has.

You miss the biggest people group who value gold- the banksters. The article you posted has one major flaw- its title: The War On Gold and Silver. It is no such thing. The war is against the dollar and the wealth of the little people. The war is not on or against gold & silver, but to win gold & silver from increasingly weaker hands.

[mamboni]

You miss the biggest people group who value gold- the banksters. The article you posted has one major flaw- its title: The War On Gold and Silver. It is no such thing. The war is against the dollar and the wealth of the little people. The war is not on or against gold & silver, but to win gold & silver from increasingly weaker hands.

C'mon Spec, now you're starting to sound like Palani, jeez.

[Spectrism]

C'mon Spec, now you're starting to sound like Palani, jeez.

Maybe I am Palani..... except I am not Italian.

Let's watch and see where the metals go. The cost of physical will drop if the paper price drops and holds for a long enough time. There needs to be a month or two of cheaper spot prices of the large deliveries- assuming they DO deliver physical... and then the physical prices will slowly drop toward the paper price. Mostly wishful thinking since I suspect the dollar to devalue before and much more than the physical prices can drop.

For now, keep powder dry. Buy bargains. I am not interested in buying at $24 if I have to pay $7 markups on each ounce of silver.
Roller coasters are rides of up & down with the added fun of side motions. If the dollar has been constantly devaluing and that is the primary PM price mover, then we would never see PMs drop in price.

Fundamentals can do some unexpected thing too. What happens when one-third of Asia begins to starve and they need to spend their gold on food? What happens when one-third of the world dies off from disease in just one year? PMs are not the universal answer for all our problems.

[Sparky]

I can see where you would think this is circular logic since using charts of fake numbers can only yield fake numbers- temporarily. I thought the same thing over the last few years, yet this guy has been right every time.
...

Can you point out a couple of things that he has been right on?

[Spectrism]

Can you point out a couple of things that he has been right on?

Edelson predicted the price of gold and silver accurately for the last few years. There were times I disagreed with him, only to find that he was right. When silver went up to $40, he warned of a big pull back. When silver was at $34-36, he warned it would drop to $26. As it dropped he said the bottom could drop to $20 range. None of us expected the sudden drop to $23.

I would not discount this guy so easily.

[mamboni]

Edelson predicted the price of gold and silver accurately for the last few years. There were times I disagreed with him, only to find that he was right. When silver went up to $40, he warned of a big pull back. When silver was at $34-36, he warned it would drop to $26. As it dropped he said the bottom could drop to $20 range. None of us expected the sudden drop to $23.

I would not discount this guy so easily.

The drop to $23 silver was outright manipulation, period. And he had foreknowledge of this price move that no market analyst saw coming? It sounds to me like he's working for the FED/JPM and has inside information. Edelson? Hm, do I smell bagels?

[Spectrism]

The drop to $23 silver was outright manipulation, period. And he had foreknowledge of this price move that no market analyst saw coming? It sounds to me like he's working for the FED/JPM and has inside information. Edelson? Hm, do I smell bagels?


So what? You don't like bagels? What are you - an anti-semite? I will have to report you to the ACLU, JDL, the actors guild, etc. I will have 3 dozen onion & garlic bagels delivered to your home and office so that you get the necessary sensitivity training and people begin to treat you like a jew. There! Take that!

[mamboni]

So what? You don't like bagels? What are you - an anti-semite? I will have to report you to the ACLU, JDL, the actors guild, etc. I will have 3 dozen onion & garlic bagels delivered to your home and office so that you get the necessary sensitivity training and people begin to treat you like a jew. There! Take that!

I love onion and garlic! Bring it!

[Sparky]

Edelson predicted the price of gold and silver accurately for the last few years. There were times I disagreed with him, only to find that he was right. When silver went up to $40, he warned of a big pull back. When silver was at $34-36, he warned it would drop to $26. As it dropped he said the bottom could drop to $20 range. None of us expected the sudden drop to $23.

I would not discount this guy so easily.

When silver was rocketing to $40, he warned of a pullback. Brilliant.

As for the drop to $26, here's me in February:

"Silver price is tougher to get a read on; not nearly as well-behaved as gold. It usually takes a bigger percentage hit than gold, so think in the $26.xx ballpark. If you already have your base stack in place, I'd hold out for the fire sale at that level." (http://gold-silver.us/forum/showthread.php?60154-Discussion-of-daily-PM-price-moves/page7&highlight=daily+discussion)

[Spectrism]

When silver was rocketing to $40, he warned of a pullback. Brilliant.

As for the drop to $26, here's me in February:

"Silver price is tougher to get a read on; not nearly as well-behaved as gold. It usually takes a bigger percentage hit than gold, so think in the $26.xx ballpark. If you already have your base stack in place, I'd hold out for the fire sale at that level." (http://gold-silver.us/forum/showthread.php?60154-Discussion-of-daily-PM-price-moves/page7&highlight=daily+discussion)

Silver peaked on 4/25/2011. Most of us thought it would continue over $60 and the dollar was toast. Here is Edelson's email of 4/4/2011:


Monday, April 4, 2011
More MAIL, and MORE
of My Responses!
by Larry Edelson




Dear Spectrism,








http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/editor-photos/larry/!!_Larry-Final_152.jpg





Wow! The reaction to last week's column on my position on gold and silver and my replies to the emails and comments pouring in on my blog was unbelievable!
Not only did I get a lot of complaints, and quite a few kudos as well, my responses also elicited a new outpouring of comments from my readers.
So today, I am going to answer some of them, good and bad. That way, everyone can see the comments, the questions, and again, my replies.
But first, for the record, let me tell you — in no uncertain terms — the following:
First, despite volatile trade this week, and a miniscule new record high in gold, as I write this column, gold has not closed above the $1,453 level that I have targeted as a breakout level.
Instead, gold remains below that important resistance level ... very overbought ... and cyclically prone to a sharp pullback. Ditto for silver.
So right now, my view has not changed. And it will not change until I see gold close above the $1,453 level for two consecutive trading days.
Having said that, let's take a look at what's really going on. First, I have been long gold since 1999, calling this bull market every step of the way. I only turned bearish on the short term, and just last December when gold was trading at about $1,433.
Today, gold is at $1,433. In other words, it's gone nowhere!
Meanwhile, as I have also recommended all along — you should be holding your long-term core positions in physical gold and gold mining shares. Reason: Longer term, gold is heading much higher. It's just not ready to do so yet.
Second, I maintain my view that silver is extremely overbought and is being manipulated. It is way too risky a market right now to trade either long or short. Ditto for silver stocks.
Admittedly, I have missed a big chunk of silver's big rally last year. And many readers are angry about that. I can't blame them.
But I maintain my view in silver: Silver needed to prove itself first. It has now done that, and I will not hesitate to buy into silver — once it, too, puts in a healthy, way overdue correction. Ditto for silver miners.

Third, the broad stock markets are now at an inflection point that is going to dictate the next few months' action. Specifically, keep a close eye on the 12,391 level in the Dow and the 1,338.25 level in the S&P 500.
Two consecutive daily closings above those levels, and the Dow and S&P 500 will likely rally into June, to new post 2009 crash highs, eliminating the bearish short-term decline I have been expecting.
Fourth, the U.S. dollar is starting to rally a tad, which is what I have been expecting and is one of the reasons why I believe the precious metals will soon pullback.
But even here, the dollar is not rallying enough yet, and it is also at an inflection point that remains very important on a short-term basis. Its next move will impact all markets.
Now, on to more emails and comments from readers ...
August writes in: "Larry ― I specifically remember that you said several months ago that your cycle studies indicated a downtrend for the PMs into the end of March (I even marked my calendar) — and then a continued rise — why have you changed your opinion and adjusted your time frame?"
Larry: I have not changed my opinion. Barring two consecutive closings above $1,453 in gold, I still expect a sharp, surprising pullback in the precious metals, and then a much stronger rally than what you're seeing now.
All that has changed is that the shorter cycles have become distended, probably due to heightened volatility in the currency markets, which is at its highest levels in decades. The wild swings in the currency markets (due to recent central bank intervention to stem the Japanese yen's rise) are wreaking havoc on the markets.
Ryan writes in: "I have followed you for some time now and over the last year became a subscriber. I also follow the Elliott Wave Model which appears to track fairly well to your cycle studies.
"I will say that you have always given timely advice and all of this emotion will lead to a pull back to the downside eventually. We are in a strong 5-up wave which catches everyone's attention and they think the blow off will continue. Keep waiting folks, for the necessary correction to load up on the metals.
"On a side note, I'm now starting to become a buyer of natural gas for the long-term hold. It's only so long that the market can sustain pricing below the cost of production. Really big profit potential will result from nat gas over the long-term. I got burned on the ZSL short but quickly closed out my position realizing that this wave 5-up move will continue over the short term. I expect a correction soon. Keep up the good work Larry!!!"
Larry: Thanks for loyalty and kudos Ryan. I don't use Elliot Wave, though I have studied it extensively. I do, however, use sentiment measures, which Elliot Wave theory does rely on. And the sentiment measures now are, yes, indicative of an ending 5th wave higher, one that will lead to a short-term bust, and hurt a lot of investors. The extreme, blue sky optimism toward precious metals right now is not a good sign.
As to natural gas, yes, it looks like it is forming a major bottom!
Bob writes in: "I, too, have followed you for about three years and consider you to be sincere and accurate in your concerns and predictions.
"I am heavily invested in gold and silver mines and stocks. I am not educated in options, therefore, I have hedged with (DGZ and ZSL).
"Unfortunately, these hedges don't nearly keep pace with gold and silver stocks when they drop in value. What should I do when this happens?
"At present I have had a nice run up in both areas. Because of the uncertainty of the market, the devaluing of the dollar, and my age of 70; two-thirds of my money is in money markets getting only 4% and the rest is in many ETFs in the stock market.
"Is this wise? What would you do if you were 70 years old, retired, good health, had $600,000 in cash with no outstanding bills and a paid for house. I know you can't give advice so I'm just asking what you would do if you were in the same situation."
Larry: The inverse gold and silver ETFs are not doing well, precisely because gold has been going sideways for nearly four months, and because silver has rallied. So, as hedges against gold mining shares, the inverse ETFs have not performed well either.
Put options on mining shares would have performed better as hedges, but even then, the amount of time consumed by these markets over the last four months would not have helped either.
As to your questions about retirement, you are correct: I cannot give individualized recommendations or advice.
However, I can reiterate my overall portfolio recommendation, which is to keep roughly 75% of liquid cash safe in a combination of a money market fund, foreign currency CDs such as the Aussie and New Zealand dollars — and 25% in a combination of physical gold and gold ETFs and mining shares.
Ewy writes in: "Why is your mate Sean saying silver and gold are buys now if you're bearish short term?"
Larry: We use different technical systems. Sometimes Sean is going to be right short term, and I'm going to be wrong. At other times, he's going to be wrong, and I'm going to be right. That's what makes markets!
Nevertheless, do note that both Sean and I are very bullish long term on precious metals and commodities.
Rick writes in: "You may end up being right Larry, but your timing in the short term will be atrocious and that is what the problem is. Your cycles sure have dropped the ball in that respect and may be useless in this time of major economic and geo-political trouble. Time will tell."
Larry: The short-term has indeed been tough to deal with lately. However, gold has really gone nowhere for nearly four months, and most gold shares have gone down. So, we haven't really missed anything there.
On the other hand, I have been dead wrong on silver. But I have no problem with that. Silver needed to prove itself first. Now that it has, I will merely be patient and wait for a low risk buying opportunity.
MSG123 writes in: "Since China is buying gold & silver [on] dips, I think [pullbacks] are less deep than maybe you'd think. Also buying are India and Middle Eastern nations. So I don't think gold is going to dip as deep as you may think.
"Although I value your advice, I bought at the $1,375 level and again at $1,335. So far, I have made all of my investment back and then some.
"If the dip you write of comes to pass, I will be buying more. Nevertheless, I'm happy that I bought when I did and back in 2008 and several times per year since.
"By the way, between you and Sean and Tony, I am up over 14 percent overall and during the VIX drop last week, I was still up over 5 percent. So thank you to you all."
Larry: Great. Thank you! China and India are indeed big buyers, not only retail, but so are their central banks. However, they are very savvy, and they, too, like to buy on pullbacks. I do not believe they are buying right now, but like me, are waiting for the next opportunity.
Barbara writes in: "Do you offer anything where I can get advice for my retirement? How to structure 401(k)s, etc."
Larry: My colleague Nilus Mattive at Weiss Research is the resident retirement expert. You can find his work by clicking here.
Rose writes in, responding to last week's video update titled Tipping Point Near: "Yeah, I think we all know that all these markets could either go up or down."
Larry: Yes, indeed, plus of course, they can also go sideways. The key is knowing when they will either change direction, or break out from a sideways trading affair. And being prepared to take appropriate action.
Nick writes in: "Hi Larry, I respect your work but I really think that you missed something that would have stopped you from making the negative short-term call for gold. That was that in an update early this year you posted a cycle chart that showed gold bottoming in March and since then you seemed to ignore it.
"I would also respectively suggest that your big concern that gold and other commodities will embark on a parabolic spike going into the fall and then a massive bubble burst followed by a deflation implosion seems to me to be the higher probability forecast."
Larry: In a previous comment above, I note that the cycles seem to be extending, and that the low, if it happens, could come later. As to a big parabolic spike higher going into the fall, that is still possible provided we get a pullback now. That would also be the healthier of the two scenarios.
I don't recall saying anything about a deflation implosion. I do not see that happening. I do see that if gold and silver go parabolic here and now, that we will face a more serious correction later. But not deflation.
Regarding the Dow, Eden writes in: "You mentioned that once we close above 12,335 on Dow we will see a higher price to even 13,000. I think that is what's going to happen right now. We just closed above 12,335 on Wednesday!"
Larry: Per my column last Monday, and also reiterated above, that signal has been refined to two consecutive daily closes above 12,391 in the Dow and 1,338.25 in the S&P 500 Index.
Danie writes in, quoting one of my previous replies: "But truth be told, the level of emotions that are now running so high against anyone who dare say that gold, silver, other metals, and commodities could, and should, fall in the short term — is one large reason precisely why they probably will decline. Precisely!!!"
Larry: Yes, it is amazing to watch markets unfold. Back in 1999, when I said gold was bottoming and about to begin a major long-term bull market, everyone told me I was nuts. Now all I am saying is that gold needs to pause, pullback and refresh, after a 468% gain — and most think I'm nuts again!
Nick writes in: "Your crystal ball is getting foggy, and your interpretation of what is happening in the precious metals market is foggier."
Larry: Agreed! Most all markets are pretty foggy right now, not just to me, to others as well. Hence all the outpouring of emotion and the wild swings in the markets.
Neil writes in: "You are using charts to determine your forecasts to your detriment. You have been calling a pullback in silver to $25-$24 for the past month and that has not and will not happen. We are in new territory that cannot been predicted using historic reference. I predict silver will hit $67.50 this year and gold will hit $2,500 this year."
Larry: I sure hope not. Not so soon. If they do that, it would be premature!

John writes in: "Larry, is that not a rising wedge formation on gold as well as silver on a weekly chart? If so, that alone forebodes your targets very closely."
Larry: Yes, John, indeed, they are forming rising wedge formations, which, after long uptrends like we've seen in gold and silver, have very high probabilities of being a bearish signal, and now some kind of pause. This is one of the many pieces of evidence why I am still short-term bearish.
Steve writes in: "Hey Larry, why don't you come to your site's blog and respond, for once."
Larry: I will make a point of it going forward, for sure!
Sep writes in: "11 months ago [you] predicted the Dow might go up maybe 900 points maximum, but more likely drop 2,000 points ... if [you are] waiting for that 'I told you so' moment, it's sure taking a while ..."
Larry: Not sure of the exact dates and levels, I'd have to look them up in my published works. But it seems you've missed a lot of forecasts I made. I have tracked the Dow's twists and turns very accurately. We have not yet gotten the pullback I expected, but I have informed my readers that the markets would push higher, first to 11,500, then 12,000, then 12,500.
I have taken the position that it's a risky market though, and I have told my readers and subscribers to stay largely on the sidelines since the Dow broke above 11,500. So I have missed the run up from 11,500.
But again, I am perfectly comfortable with that, as a continued rally is not anywhere near certain at this time.
Tony writes in: "Hi Larry. Thank you for the idea of hedging gold with an inverse ETF. I have found that hedging just a portion of the core gold position is not a bad way to go. If gold goes down, your inverse ETF makes up for part of the temporary reduction, and if gold goes up you do not miss the boat. So far, I prefer using a hedge as compared to stop losses or just selling a portion of the position.
"Of course the underlying assumption is that gold is still in a long-term bull market and no matter what happens in the short term, it is going much higher in the long term. Also, I am hoping that the long term is not 20+ years."
Larry: Agreed! Except, you're not going to have to wait 20+ years for precious metals to go much higher. No matter what happens in the next few days or weeks, they are headed higher into 2015/2016 — much, MUCH higher.
Dealroush writes in: "Well, it's another monthly all-time record high for my portfolio. Month after month, higher and higher, rolling in the gains, stops in place, shine on you crazy diamond."
Larry: Thanks, and congratulations!
Alan writes in: "Larry, thanks again for the update. It's getting exciting now. We're going to be glad that we listened to you, and kept our powder dry. This may be one hell of a ride!"
Larry: Very exciting indeed. Thanks Alan.
All, stay tuned, lots of exciting developments are about to unfold in nearly all markets!
Best wishes, as always,
Larry

[Sparky]

Silver peaked on 4/25/2011. Most of us thought it would continue over $60 and the dollar was toast.
...

You are projecting your mis-judgement onto others. Anyone who thought the dollar was toast in 2011, or even now for that matter, is totally controlled by emotion and not objective analysis. The dollar can't be toast until the Euro and Yen are toast. It's as simple as that. Those who refuse to acknowledge that are simply too anxious to see the dollar's demise so that their own viewpoints can be validated. I'm willing to take wagers with those who think the dollar will be toast in 2013, as long as you can provide an objective measure of it. And lots of people thought that the price of silver in April 2011 had come too far too fast.



Here is Edelson's email of 4/4/2011:
...

Admittedly, I have missed a big chunk of silver's big rally last year. And many readers are angry about that. I can't blame them.


He was way too premature in predicting silver's fall. It's not much of a prediction to claim silver is overbought at $35, and then see it go to $49, and then eventually fall below $35. His mis-timing cost people a lot of money. It's easy to predict that something that has gone up a lot will come down, and vice versa. If you don't predict with some type of boundaries on timing or price, then it's not much of an accomplishment.



But I maintain my view in silver: Silver needed to prove itself first. It has now done that, and I will not hesitate to buy into silver — once it, too, puts in a healthy, way overdue correction. Ditto for silver miners.


So, silver put in a healthy correction from $49 to $32. Then from $40 to $28. Then from $37 to $27. Then from $34 to $23. Since he said he will not hesitate to buy into silver once it puts in a healthy correction, does this mean he bought back in at $32 two years ago? If not, which healthy correction did he buy? Or is he still waiting for $20? Inquiring minds want to know.

[Spectrism]

Fine Snarky. Go your own way. I have not much interest in talking with the likes of you. More than a year and a half have passed since then with changing market conditions and you think, in your high and mighty stupidity, that this analyst should not adjust his outlook based on market conditions?

BTW- that is why I never answered you over the Facebook bet. I would not want to have a beer with you or even be in a room with you. When I left this forum for a while, it was because of snarky remarks from clowns like you.

[mamboni]

THE ROSEN MARKET TIMING LETTER


“Time is more important than price; when time is up price will reverse.” W.D.Gann



RONALD L. ROSEN REPORT

We can curse, rant and shake with fear about those evil forces that keep knocking down the price of gold and silver. However, if we want to know when the highs and lows will take place we can calmly with confidence observe whether or not the next Delta Long term (LTD) turning point is a high or a low and when it is due. They have never failed.

Gold by any measure is the leader of the pack. The pack consists of gold, silver, and the HUI. This monthly logarithmic gold chart shows us that a new high occurred at every LTD # 4 high and every grouping of LTD # 1 high and LTD # 2 high. Lows occurred at LTD # 3 low and LTD # 5 low. A perfect rising logarithmic channel has been in place since the bull market in gold began. Silver and the HUI clearly follow gold up and down. All three will be moving up to LTD # 4 high due February 12, 2014.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/rosen042813.html
(http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/rosen042813.html)

GOLD MONTHLY LOGARITHMIC CHART


http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/images/rosen042813-1.jpg

Highs have occurred at LTD # 4 and LTD # 1 & # 2. Lows occur at LTD # 3 & LTD # 5.
Next stop is LTD # 4 high.


SILVER MONTHLY LOGARITHMIC CHART


http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/images/rosen042813-2.jpg

Highs have occurred at LTD # 4 and LTD # 1 & # 2. Lows occur at LTD # 3 & LTD # 5.
Next stop is LTD # 4 high.



HUI MONTHLY LOGARITHMIC CHART


http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/images/rosen042813-3.jpg


The upshot is that all forms of precious metals are preparing to soar.

[Spectrism]

The upshot is that all forms of precious metals are preparing to soar.

That is what I would have figured and anyone who expects further dollar devaluation will think that way. That is why I am hesitant to put faith in that view. I think the devils in charge are going to monkey this thing around in contradiction to reason.... and then snap some reality into a confused marketplace.

[gunDriller]

the Cartel has a history of using panics to push currency markets around, including the Ultimate currency, PM's.

what will short-circuit their BS is the physical market.


but because of gold-leasing & other central bank games, the markets are somewhat opaque.

i wouldn't be surprised to see a Dow 'crash' (20%) be accompanied by another PM raid.


one of the things that helps the Cartel is when people have debt & have to sell Gold to resolve a debt - or use FRN's to resolve the debt instead of buying Gold-on-sale.

e.g. I have a "12 months interest free" thing, $915 due May 15, that is eating up my cash for this month.

it was for a computer i bought last year.

[Spectrism]

the Cartel has a history of using panics to push currency markets around, including the Ultimate currency, PM's.
what will short-circuit their BS is the physical market.

but because of gold-leasing & other central bank games, the markets are somewhat opaque.
i wouldn't be surprised to see a Dow 'crash' (20%) be accompanied by another PM raid.

one of the things that helps the Cartel is when people have debt & have to sell Gold to resolve a debt - or use FRN's to resolve the debt instead of buying Gold-on-sale.
e.g. I have a "12 months interest free" thing, $915 due May 15, that is eating up my cash for this month.
it was for a computer i bought last year.

I can see them shaking the market down and flushing out physical. The way to do that is to make everybody poor. This is what they are doing. All the money that was "printed" did not go into the economy. It is sitting on the sideline waiting to gobble up assets. Nobody sells unless they are desperate. Desperation comes by crashing economic conditions- and DEBT. People thought the money supply would be pumped and prices would keep going up. So I have to ask- what mechanism will put all those fake dollars into the hands of the commoners? Ain't gonna happen.

[StreetsOfGold]

this guy has been right every time

I have yet to meet a man who is right every time. When you find such a man, the world would like to meet him. Oh yea, there was a man who was right every time but God manifest in the flesh (Jesus Christ) is the exception.

[Spectrism]

I have yet to meet a man who is right every time. When you find such a man, the world would like to meet him. Oh yea, there was a man who was right every time but God manifest in the flesh (Jesus Christ) is the exception.

OK... a bit of exaggeration... but what I meant was he had the vision to see the long term play and knew the short-term events were different. Was he exactly on the numbers? No- and he freely admitted that.... which also made him credible in my eyes.

[ximmy]

It doesn't matter what the cartel takes spot too. Spot is no longer the price of silver. spot is television...

[Steal]

I dont know about that, or maybe I dont WANT to think that due to not making a purchase this last run down. Premiums have come up for sure, cheapist deliverable generic I see is $26.34 with a 24.24 spot price , $2.10 premium. Unless physical buyers just keep on buying blind with no price in mind, as in this current bounce, supply should catch up with demand mid May.IMO. In general most seem stoked at getting phyz at a cheaper price, not much peverbial 'blood in da streets' nor much weeping and gnashing of teeth going on.

[Sparky]

Fine Snarky. Go your own way. I have not much interest in talking with the likes of you. More than a year and a half have passed since then with changing market conditions and you think, in your high and mighty stupidity, that this analyst should not adjust his outlook based on market conditions?

BTW- that is why I never answered you over the Facebook bet. I would not want to have a beer with you or even be in a room with you. When I left this forum for a while, it was because of snarky remarks from clowns like you.

My reply may come across as snarky, but I'm always open to hearing legitimate counter-arguments. I've been wrong before, and I will be again. Ironically, I happen to agree with the thread, i.e. a also think the gold and silver may not have bottomed, which I've pointed out in numerous threads. I've stated that analogous situations in 1976 and 2008 would point to us testing the bottom again, or maybe even breaking 5% the current bottom, some time in May or June, or perhaps as late as July. So I'm really not going my own way at all.

But in my snarkiness, I trying to point out that he really hasn't shown any special insight. I'd really have been impressed with someone who at $35 silver had told us it would continue to rise to just short of $50, then spend two years consolidating downward, and ultimately bottom out with a plunge to the $20-$23 range. I can't find anyone who made that prediction.

So if his primary claim is that gold and silver will ultimately soar due to fiat weakness regardless of what happens in the short term, well then, he needs to get into the long line of people already making that prediction.

I also have a bit of a pet peeve with all the predictions of an imminent dollar collapse, even amongst my fellow GSUS peers whom I continue to respect and learn from. So I will admit to some snarkiness on that one. Fiat dollars are valued relative to other fiat dollars, so there's no logic to thinking the dollar can collapse without the Euro and Yen collapsing first. The U.S. Dollar is the last domino in the fiat currency system.

[Libertytree]

My reply may come across as snarky, but I'm always open to hearing legitimate counter-arguments. I've been wrong before, and I will be again. Ironically, I happen to agree with the thread, i.e. a also think the gold and silver may not have bottomed, which I've pointed out in numerous threads. I've stated that analogous situations in 1976 and 2008 would point to us testing the bottom again, or maybe even breaking 5% the current bottom, some time in May or June, or perhaps as late as July. So I'm really not going my own way at all.

But in my snarkiness, I trying to point out that he really hasn't shown any special insight. I'd really have been impressed with someone who at $35 silver had told us it would continue to rise to just short of $50, then spend two years consolidating downward, and ultimately bottom out with a plunge to the $20-$23 range. I can't find anyone who made that prediction.

So if his primary claim is that gold and silver will ultimately soar due to fiat weakness regardless of what happens in the short term, well then, he needs to get into the long line of people already making that prediction.

I also have a bit of a pet peeve with all the predictions of an imminent dollar collapse, even amongst my fellow GSUS peers whom I continue to respect and learn from. So I will admit to some snarkiness on that one. Fiat dollars are valued relative to other fiat dollars, so there's no logic to thinking the dollar can collapse without the Euro and Yen collapsing first. The U.S. Dollar is the last domino in the fiat currency system.

I'm curious about this Sparky....If the USD is THE fiat world standard wouldn't it be the 1st domino? It seems like the rest of the fiat systems always flee to the USD in times of economic peril but what happens if we falter 1st?

As an aside....If you can afford PM's buy them, as cheaply as possible of course but hinging on all the supposed guru's prognostications seems to be an act of futility as the end result and consequences are the same, just my meager 2¢.

[Serpo]

i get 22 dollars as the bottom

[gunDriller]

So I have to ask- what mechanism will put all those fake dollars into the hands of the commoners?

Cash for Clunkers 2 ... could take alternative forms -

"Money for Microwaves with Broken Turntables 3.1.2"
"Wampum for Walkmen" (Sony Walkmen, that is)

[Spectrism]

Since none of us can see clearly into the future, we have to make guesses based on what we think are most likely events to unfold. And those guesses are based on how we view our current circumstances. This is how we can all come up with varying expectations.

My presumptions are:

The rich controllers want to maintain their control.
Using violent force if necessary, simple monetary policy first, they will suck power (wealth) from others.
Their chief tools include: deception and debt.
Their policies will change to meet their changing checklists per their patient time schedule.
Their patience is dropping like a fat-fingered sell-off.
World events point to a coalescing cacophany of cataclysm imminently before us.
Old rules are replaced with new rules that only apply to commoners.
All institutions of government and societal influence are corrupted and co-opted by these controllers.


From these I expect a shakedown and a shakeup of all things. Anticipate that you cannot expect the unexpected any more than a snail can avoid the 4-inch wide tire approaching at 40 mph on the road. While precious metals are part of their scheme of control, it goes much deeper than that. They want the very souls of men destroyed and care not about keeping the flesh of commoners alive. Those who are left will be required to show their subservience.

[Sparky]

I'm curious about this Sparky....If the USD is THE fiat world standard wouldn't it be the 1st domino? It seems like the rest of the fiat systems always flee to the USD in times of economic peril but what happens if we falter 1st?
...


Fiat currency is based entirely on faith. The reason the rest of the fiat systems flee to the USD is because it elicits the most faith in spite of the terrible U.S. debt numbers. Witness what happened in 2008. The whole world was afraid that the U.S. was going to go bankrupt, and it still fled to the USD. The U.S. credit rating got downgraded, and other countries still fled to the U.S. It's really hard to shake a reputation, be it good or bad. It's particularly difficult when there's no preferred alternative.

So, I'm not sure under what scenario the U.S. can falter first. If you were to set everything else aside, the U.S. still has the strongest military, the most natural resources, the highest rate of technical innovation, and the most educated population. (And before anyone jumps on the education thing, I don't mean just formal education. I'll bet the U.S. has a disproportionately high rate of real-world alternative self-educated people via web sites such as this, compared to other countries. China, the one of the potential threats to take over for the USD as the world's currency provider, restricts internet access to their own people. Do you think that's going to win faith from the rest of the world?)

And to top it off, we have a very elaborate system for making it look as though our fiat system isn't being abused. For all of these reasons, there really is no preferred alternative to the USD, so it will not falter until the entire world recognizes the folly of a fiat money system. Only a failure in the USD will convince the world of this.


What happens if/when the USD falls? There will probably be a new world fiat system established that begins with enough restraint that it gains credibility for decades or centuries. So to answer your second question/comment, this is a non-futile reason for holding PM. It will survive this transition to a world fiat currency.

[Serpo]

Posted April 19th, 2013
Dear Mr. Sinclair,

As you are aware, I sold my silver at $49 and gold at $1900. Since January 2013, I have provided you my Gold Updates. Today I provide you what I expect to see from Gold these next few weeks. Please see the below Gold chart with specific dates and approximate price targets that might/should be reached on those specific dates.
Please note the blue chart arrows are date sensitive, not price sensitive. As the dates are hit these waves will end and changes direction regardless of price.
The next two dates to watch for are as follows:
(I) May 2-3, 2013 – INTERMEDIATE TOP (SMA’s)
(II) May 10-11, 2013 – BULLBACK BOTTOM
NOTE: PRICE TARGETS MIGHT VARY, DATE WILL NOT. WATCH DATES.



Dear Mr. Sinclair,

As you are aware on April 19, 2013 I sent you an email and a gold chart titled “Bottom is In” that you posted with a heading of “$1300 Gold Never Again”. Here is the link: http://www.jsmineset.com/2013/04/19/1300-goldnever-again/

We await May 2-3, 2013 the first date referenced on the original chart. Please see below an update of the chart thru yesterday, April 23, 2013:
http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/2-GOLD-UPDATE-4.23_thumb.jpg (http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/2-GOLD-UPDATE-4.23.jpg)
Gold is right on target and performing perfectly this week. The bottom is in as of April 15, 2013 and as stated earlier $1300 will never be seen again. With regards to Silver, it has been the weaker of the two as it sits at the BOTTOM of the 8 year support line of the gold/silver ratio that PERFECTLY matches the FINAL low of October 2008 which marked the FINAL BOTTOM! See attached gold/silver ratio chart:
http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/1-GOLD-SILVER-RATIO_thumb.jpg (http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/1-GOLD-SILVER-RATIO.jpg) THE ONLY DIRECTION GOLD AND SILVER ARE GOING IS UP AND SOON!
The date clock I posted last week was May 2-3, 2013 and that clock is ticking for the metal to move up. There are 7 trading days remaining into next Friday, May 3rd and the wind will be to gold’s back the entire time pushing it UP!
Additionally, there is a triangle that GLD is forming and is now running out of room, thus expect a BREAK-AWAY GAP to form very soon, see chart:
http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/4-GLD-4.24_thumb.jpg (http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/4-GLD-4.24.jpg) http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/3-SLV-4.24_thumb.jpg (http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/3-SLV-4.24.jpg) The BOTTOM is in.
All the best,
CIGA Bo Polny


http://www.jsmineset.com/page/3/

[joboo]

Charts are useless, and the people that make them up seem to keep forgetting the entire thing is rigged.

They sure do look pretty though, and keep people mesmerised...and guessing....deeeeerrrrrpp.

[Serpo]

Charts are useless, and the people that make them up seem to keep forgetting the entire thing is rigged.

They sure do look pretty though, and keep people mesmerised...and guessing....deeeeerrrrrpp.

Its not May 2 yet...............


are you talking about yourself again.............sure do look pretty though, and keep people mesmerised...and guessing....deeeeerrrrrpp

[joboo]

Its not May 2 yet...............


are you talking about yourself again.............sure do look pretty though, and keep people mesmerised...and guessing....deeeeerrrrrpp


Oh there you go with the attack the messenger Jew tactic again. Like clockwork as usual.

Anyhow look up some time, the game is rigged. Welcome to reality, buy when it's cheap, sell when it's not if desired, or wait, and buy more for a rainy day.

That's all there is .....wake up and smell the coffee, it's all proof of concept at this point, and nothing more.....but you can waste your life looking at pretty charts if you want, hey, by all means, don't let me stop you from experiencing that scenario...

[ximmy]

Oh there you go with the attack the messenger Jew tactic again. Like clockwork as usual.

Anyhow look up some time, the game is rigged. Welcome to reality, buy when it's cheap, sell when it's not if desired, or wait, and buy more for a rainy day.

That's all there is .....wake up and smell the coffee, it's all proof of concept at this point, and nothing more.....but you can waste your life looking at pretty charts if you want, hey, by all means, don't let me stop you from experiencing that scenario...

What joboo! The game is rigged? I don't believe it. Another enlightening post!

[Spectrism]

So, the dead cat has bounced. Time for the next leg down? If it does go down, we had best be hearing about physical drops soon. The delivery of cheaper PMs must follow or the system locks up. This is where we will be hearing about the surprising drop- OR- the criminal COMEX with fake paper numbers, rehypothecation and the great gold robbery mystery.

[Plastic]

23.66 and dropping as of this post.

mmmmmm cofffffeeeee! *wanders off to get a cup of the precccioussssss*

[Spectrism]

$23.27 now and dropping. If we break $22- down she goes.



4843

[Andy9999]

$23.27 now and dropping. If we break $22- down she goes.



4843

european markets are is closed,May first ,I bet most of it will closed till next monday-people are taking long weeekend,this gold smack was planned ,it is not coincidence that price go down today

[gunDriller]

another day, another raid.

just a big JPM/HSBC circle jerk, with the CFTC going on "oh yeah, we'll catch the manipulators & lasso the Cartel".


there's got to be some good people at the CFTC but they don't seem to be in control.


one of my nephews likes to steal money from the bank when we play Monopoly.

of course i only know this because he felt guilty and confessed.

he takes $5 Million bills when no one is looking.


it's sort of like having him in charge of the metals markets, although i think his conscience is much more highly developed than Blythe Masters'.

maybe when he's in career-choosing mode in a few years i'll tell him about JPMorgan Chase.

[ximmy]

If there is any thread or string holding paper (spot) to physical this could break it. Then we could see physical take off toward 3 digits even when spot goes to Zero.

[mamboni]

If there is any thread or string holding paper (spot) to physical this could break it. Then we could see physical take off toward 3 digits even when spot goes to Zero.

This is pure manipulation. The central banks are trying to break the will of the gold bugs by letting gold have a brief strong rally, then smack it hard again. This is so f'ing predictable that it is getting boring and boorish. I will wait a day or two 'til the assholes are done and then I will buy still more physical gold, assuming there is any available in 2-3 days.

[Spectrism]

It could be worse. They could declare it illegal to own gold or silver bullion and that numismatics will be assessed a user tax.... and then drop the price of metals by 50%.

[mamboni]

It could be worse. They could declare it illegal to own gold or silver bullion and that numismatics will be assessed a user tax.... and then drop the price of metals by 50%.

They no longer control the price of gold - only the Chinese and the rest of the BRIICS are too polite to tell them.

[gunDriller]

It could be worse. They could declare it illegal to own gold or silver bullion and that numismatics will be assessed a user tax.... and then drop the price of metals by 50%.

i think the IRS will approach it via the tax route.

e.g. raising the tax on collectibles (28% ?), vs. that on long/short term capital gains (15% ?).

and increasing market maker (coin dealer) paperwork requirements.


maybe the Chinese will send over crews to buy Gold from Americans discreetly, using Craigslist ads.

[joboo]

What joboo! The game is rigged? I don't believe it. Another enlightening post!

Yeah sorry I forgot to include pictures like that other guy does to help you visualize it. I see as much in floating tea leaves, or a bowl of soggy cheerios, as I do in the latest charts from the "experts"...

But feel free to go crosseyed staring at them upside down , and backwards. Whatever you feel enriches your journey through the cosmos...

[ximmy]

Yeah sorry I forgot to include pictures like that other guy does to help you visualize it. I see as much in floating tea leaves, or a bowl of soggy cheerios, as I do in the latest charts from the "experts"...

But feel free to go crosseyed staring at them upside down , and backwards. Whatever you feel enriches your journey through the cosmos...

Hey hey... I thought you were sleeping...
http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lmfucmpcvg1qd0fqqo1_400.jpg

[osoab]

Charts are useless, and the people that make them up seem to keep forgetting the entire thing is rigged.

They sure do look pretty though, and keep people mesmerised...and guessing....deeeeerrrrrpp.

Seems like a shortsighted comment to me. Have you forgot all of the trading algo's that will run rampant over a market just because of a fake tweet?

[Serpo]

Yeah sorry I forgot to include pictures like that other guy(He means me Serpo (THAT OTHER GUY)) does to help you visualize it. I see as much in floating tea leaves, or a bowl of soggy cheerios, as I do in the latest charts from the "experts"...

But feel free to go crosseyed staring at them upside down , and backwards. Whatever you feel enriches your journey through the cosmos...


The beginning of the silver age

By Xinshan Zhou

April 29, 2013 • Reprints

3. Celebrate the Birth of Wave III

Before introducing our leading character — silver — I’d like to expound on the wave information imprinted in figure 1. Some may argue that 20 months for wave II is too short to correct the 144 months in wave I. In my opinion, 20 months of correction is long enough. Why? First, a price correction of 36% is acceptable (1,923 – 1,323 = 600; 1,923 – 253 = 1,670; 600 / 1,670 = 36%). Second, the secular trend line support at point C is strong confirmation for the end of wave II. Third, the bearish market of gold and silver lasted too long, about 20 years, during the last super correction wave from 1980 to 2000, therefore gold needs to accelerate its speed upwards to make up for the lost time. Last but not least, if we consider the abnormal global currency printing speed today, I would say 20 months of correction is too long.

Both gold and silver are at the beginning of wave III. There might be another down leg in the daily chart to confirm the bottom next month, but that may not occur. It is a rare opportunity now to enter for those who missed wave I. Generally, wave III will run faster and gain much more compared with wave I. It will probably take gold to $10,050 to $16,000 per ounce in circa 5 to 8 years or even faster. Meanwhile, silver will go to $500 to $1,100 per ounce then.

An alternative method to count waves is to separate the gold trend into nine waves for this super-cycle after 1999. It’s in the beginning of wave 7 now. Currently, silver can also be considered to be at the beginning of wave 3 in wave III. Personally, I think all these counting methods are correct. We all know that theory wave explains the history better than it forecasts the future, so there should be multiple methods to count waves.

4. Silver: Cup with Handle Pattern

The silver chart will provide a classical cup with handle pattern for future investors to study. The body of the cup is finished already. We are waiting for the completion of the handle. Because the cup lasted 21 years, the handle needs a few years to make it strong enough to hold the cup. Personally, I think it may take three or four years this time. That means silver price will break through the neckline at $50, or its historical high, in 2014 or 2015. Generally, the potential gain from the neckline will equal to or exceed the body size, 14.37 fold. Therefore, the next station for silver is $700+ / oz after the completion of cup with handle pattern. Silver may yield another body size in one or two decades, the price will be higher than $10,000/oz then.

http://media.resourceinvestor.com/resourceinvestor/article/2013/04/29/X2.jpg


Quarterly Logarithm Chart of Silver Price
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/2013/04/29/the-beginning-of-the-silver-age?t=precious-metals&page=2

[Serpo]

5. What Factors Support Silver Price Going up?

First, silver stock is decreasing. Humans have dug out about 50 to 60 billion ounces of silver and 5 to 6 billion ounces of gold up to now. Most of the gold, more than 90 %, is still there, but there are only about 1 billion ounces of silver left. More than 95% of silver was consumed by industry in the last century. Because of its incomparably excellent physical and chemical characteristics, silver is widely used almost everywhere such as in solar energy, television sets, computers, cell phones, digital cameras, all other electronic equipment and many other areas. The dwindling trend of silver stock will continue until silver is completely depleted. The decreasing silver stock is perpetual propulsion for silver price going up.

Second, global money supply is increasing dramatically every year. From January 1980 to now, the U.S. monetary base has increased 22 fold from $130 billion to $3,025 billion; China’s M2 has increased almost 800 fold from 130 billion yuan to 103.6 trillion yuan; all other countries have also increased their money supply. Total world money supply has increased above 22 fold, the same as the USA during this period. If we calculate the high price of gold and silver in 1980 with the current money supply, gold price will go beyond $20,079 / oz (873 x 23), and silver price will be higher than $1,158 / oz. Even though today’s gold stock is more than its stock in 1980 (increased about 50%), we can get gold price at $13,386 / oz (20,079 / 1.5). What about silver? Believe it or not, today’s silver stock is no more than one third of its stock in 1980. Therefore, the corrected high price for silver in 1980 should be above $3,500/oz. I expect to witness this price in 20 years.

Some may worry about what will happen if the central banks stop printing currency. Will the price of gold and silver go down then? First, no central bank wants to stop printing if they can print. The printing speed may slow down during some periods, but it never stopped in monetary history (details concerning this topic are beyond this article). Second, even if they want to stop printing, it’s already too late because they have printed too much. Keep in mind that silver stock will continually decrease and money supply will simultaneously increase. As long as the central banks can discretionarily print currency, the secular uptrend of gold, silver and all other commodities will never stop. Silver price will go higher and higher.

6. A Word to the Price Ratio of Gold and Silver

The price ratio of gold and silver should be in accordance with the ratio of the amount of silver and gold. What is the ratio now? How can we determine the ratio? It should be between 9 and 16. First, as I mentioned above, the ratio of all silver and gold dug by humans up to now is about 10. Second, the ratio of silver and gold dug by all countries in recent years is around 9. Third, according to U.S. Geological Survey, the ratio of available underground reserved silver and gold in the world is about 10. Last, surveys by geologists show that the amount of silver and gold in the earth’s crust is about 16:1. All these data suggests that the price ratio of gold and silver should be between 9 and 16. This is also coherent with the price ratio of gold and silver throughout 5,000 years of human history, which was between 8 and 16 most of the time.

Many people are accustomed to the high price ratio of gold and silver, it is about 60 these days. The possible reasons may be that they presume there is much more silver than gold, or the futures contract size designed for silver is 50 times that of gold in the United States. In fact, silver stock is less than gold stock today. Compared to more than five billion ounces of gold, there are only one billion ounces of silver available for investment now. The futures contract size ratio of 50 doesn’t mean the price ratio should be 50. If that is true, the price ratio should be 15 in China because the designed contract size ratio of silver and gold is 15 in all exchanges over there. Clearly, this is not true.

The cardinal reason that many investors buy gold is based on the assumption that gold is money. However, silver is also money and is depleting much faster than gold. Silver price must go up and will go up faster than gold price. Therefore, the price ratio of gold and silver will gradually go down to the area between 9 and 16 in the next few years and will continue to go down in the future.
Conclusion: Super Stars Come on the Scene!

I have demonstrated a panorama of the price uptrend of gold and silver in the next few years or decades from both technical analysis (trend, wave theory, statistics and patterns) and value analysis (supply and demand, money supply, hyperinflation and gold silver price ratio). I firmly believe that the price of gold and silver is extremely undervalued right now. The price slump two weeks ago provided a perfect purchasing opportunity for those who had no gold and silver in their portfolios. The potential yield could be eight to ten times or more for gold and dozens times for silver in the next few years.

Because the central banks can discretionarily print currency, super inflation will come and is inevitable. There are hundreds of examples of super inflation in human history such as Weimar (1919 to 1923), China (1940 to 1948), Zimbabwe (2000 to 2010) and so on. People will lose confidence in all fiat currencies and rush to the real money – gold and silver. A new worldwide currency supported by gold or gold and silver will definitely come to fruition. April 15, 2013 was probably the beginning of a new uptrend for both gold and silver, and the transition from the gold age to the silver age.

[Serpo]

The beginning of the silver age

By Xinshan Zhou

April 29, 2013 • Reprints
A lot of people were knocked out of the gold and silver market because of panic during the last two weeks; they capitulated or sold short near the bottom. Many others exclaimed that the gold age was over. However, I see the rising sun in the morning. Both gold and silver will start a new age. In this paper, I’ll try to tell you why we are in the beginning of a more splendid era for gold and silver. I’ll also share with you why silver will be a supernova in the following decades.

1. Capitulation, Rivers of Blood

If you ask me which words I’d like to use to describe the gold and silver market in the last two weeks, “Capitulation, rivers of blood” is my answer. According to the Weekly Commitments of Traders Reports released by the CFTC, the net long of small speculators decreased by 24,310 contracts for gold and 7,846 contracts for silver from April 9 to 23. This means that a gigantic short position was transferred to small speculators from smart hands. The capitulation of small speculators always signals an end to the last bearish trend and the beginning of a new bullish trend. I hazard to say that gold price below $1,500 and silver price below $26 are the short traps. It will not last too long.

2. The Secular Trend of Gold and Silver Is Still Intact



Figure 1: Monthly Logarithm Chart of Gold Price

Figure 1 is the monthly logarithm chart of gold price. We can see a secular trend line A-B-C. It’s really miraculous to witness gold eventually find its support in such a perfect pattern. I don’t need to say anything more. Just remember the price and the date, $1,323/oz on April 15. It will probably be the end of the last correction wave which lasted about 20 months. Why do some people shout that the gold age is over? In fact, the real splendid bullish trend with an accelerated rising speed is just beginning. The long period trend of silver is strongerhttp://media.resourceinvestor.com/resourceinvestor/article/2013/04/29/X1.jpg than gold. Figure 2 is the quarterly logarithm chart of silver price. The $22/oz on April 15 did not even touch the A-B-C trend line. This price is just above silver’s high price in 2008, another way to confirm the end of the down trend. To respond to the so called “the gold age was over,” I would rather say that the door to a new gold age is just opening and the supernova silver is making its debut.

[Spectrism]

Larry's weekly update......




Important questions, answered!



by Larry Edelson



Dear Spectrism,






http://finance.moneyandmarkets.com/media/images/editor-photos/larry/!_Larry-Final_109.jpg



Yes, gold and silver and related mining shares may bounce a bit more. But mark my words: If you’re buying them now on the basis that they’ve bottomed, you’re going to lose your shirt!
So I repeat my warnings: Gold will NOT bottom until it moves below $1,100 an ounce. Silver will not bottom until it moves below $20. Mining shares, in general, will not bottom until they lose another 30 percent to 40 percent of their value.
But I will also go on record that the devastation in the precious metals sector, though not over, will come to an end over the next few months.
So while I maintain my view that you should continue to steer clear of the sector for now, you should also start preparing to move back in to the precious metals sector in a very big way.
So how do you prepare to do that?
First, as I just noted, stay out of precious metals until they bottom. Don’t get caught in false rallies, like we’re seeing now. You’ll end up losing money you will wish you had on tap when the metals do bottom.
Second, if you do hold metals investments from MUCH lower prices, as many Real Wealth Report subscribers do, hold, BUT keep your hedges in place, largely via inverse ETFs.
Third, build up your cash! When gold and silver and related mining shares finally do bottom, the next wave up in the sector will knock your socks off and you will want to maximize your profit potential. That means having the cash to do so.


http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/2709/money-pile.jpg



Now is the time to build up your cash and wait for the next bull phase in precious metals to begin.



In the next bull phase for the precious metals, I see gold ultimately reaching well over $5,000 ... silver over $125 ... and your typical, unhedged mining share tripling and quadrupling in value.
The same applies to the commodity sector in general. Oil has not bottomed, but soon will. Copper is poised to fall much further, but will then bottom and explode higher again. Platinum, palladium, grain markets, soft commodities such as coffee, cocoa, and sugar ...
Are all poised to move still lower — but important bottoms should soon arrive, and then, just like I foresee for gold and silver — new legs to the upside will be born.
So I urge you, for the next few months, save and build your cash and let the rookies get skinned alive in the commodity markets.
Then, when they’re screaming for help and dumping their investments like there’s no tomorrow, you’ll pick up the pieces, the bargains, and you’ll buy when there’s blood in the streets ...
And be positioned to make more money over the next few years than you ever dreamed possible.
Now, for the rest of today’s column, I want to let you in on some questions and answers from the April issue of my Real Wealth Report. Mind you, my subscribers received my answers several weeks ago. As paying subscribers, they are entitled to my views before non-paying subscribers.
But I consider many of the questions they asked last month, and my answers to them, so important, that I am taking the rare step of publishing them here in my free column. Naturally, specific recommendations I make in my Real Wealth Report have been cut out; they’re reserved for paying subscribers only.

Q: Larry, can you give us your thoughts on the conventional ratio of gold and silver (16-to-1), and today’s ratio (58-to-1)?
A: 16-to-1 comes from when silver was last used as a monetary metal. But in reality, there is NO conventional ratio between gold and silver. Historically, over the last two centuries, it has varied from 16-to-1 to over 120-to-1.
Right now, the gold/silver ratio is widening, and set to widen going forward, favoring gold over silver. That’s because, as I’ve said many times, silver is no longer a monetary metal anywhere in the world. So investors will be seeking out gold over silver, pushing the ratio higher.
Q: I bought gold and silver ETFs before I signed up for Real Wealth Report. I’m losing money now so should I still hold?
A: I can’t render personalized advice. However, Real Wealth’s current position is to refrain from buying precious metals investments, and if you do own any metals, physical or otherwise (via ETFs), to hedge.
Q: You are right as rain on almost all of these markets, from a big picture point of view, and the recent short-term moves in the markets. Bravo! What’s next for silver? It seems to be breaking down, just as you forecast it would.
A: Thanks for the compliments! Silver is set to plunge to $20.47, and then even lower. Silver will likely not bottom until we see it fall below $20.
Q: What’s with all the gold bugs out there who never say sell?
A: It takes guts to say sell, especially in a market where so many investors and analysts seem to be so emotional, as they often are with gold.
Emotion prevents them from seeing the real forces at work right now, which are international in scope: Capital flight and its desperate need to find deep, liquid markets where it can be parked without fears of confiscation and where it can generate a yield.
Q: I understand the importance of storing physical gold in allocated storage. I’d like to know your thoughts on these companies — Bullionvault, Goldmoney, Hard Asset Alliance.
A: I can only vouch for the Hard Asset Alliance at this time, where we have done our due diligence.
Q: You said there would be a pullback in the stock market and that would be the time to buy blue chip stocks, and that you would tell us. Did I go to sleep and miss it?
A: No, you haven’t missed the pullback in the equity markets. Stay alert, the pullback will come fast and it will be brief and shallow. MAJOR support is now at the 13,800 level in the Dow. I doubt we can get below that.
Q: If a full-blown war breaks out between North Korea and South Korea/the U.S. — what will be the impact to U.S. stock markets and gold?
A: If anything it will be bullish for U.S. equities, as they experience more capital inflows and gain even more of a safe haven status. For gold, I suspect there would be a short-term rally. But unless gold takes out overhead resistance at the $1,760 level on a Friday closing basis, which is doubtful, then gold would resume its interim bear market shortly thereafter.
Q: Will platinum and palladium be good bets in the future?
A: Yes, once they bottom, which will likely coincide with a gold bottom.
Q: Grain markets took a big hit last month, just as you predicted in your March online event. Do you see the prices of corn, soybeans and wheat falling further? And if so, what does that mean for agricultural companies?
A: Grain markets should definitely head lower. We are in temporary disinflation. Ag companies right now remain vulnerable to a pullback in the broad equity markets. My strategy here will be to get aggressive once I see the pullback in the Dow.
Q: You haven’t written much lately about Asian currencies. What do you see happening there?
A: They should remain strong against the dollar, and even stronger against the euro. The one exception of course, being the Japanese yen, which is being aggressively devalued.
The best currency bets in Asia are the Chinese yuan, the Singapore dollar, and the Thai baht.
Q: You’ve said that the dollar will not be the world’s reserve currency in the not-too-distant future. Let’s say you own 100 shares of XYZ company that you bought for $10 (total investment $1,000). This investment is in current dollars so what happens to it when the dollar is worthless, or it loses its reserve status?
A: All asset prices float. So when the dollar loses more value, or loses its status as the world’s reserve currency, stock prices will naturally have to adjust higher to compensate.
Q: What’s your latest view on crude oil?
A: All of my models are still bearish for oil prices, pointing to an eventual plunge down to below $70 a barrel, and probably lower, to below $60.
Q: Since your publisher has moved your free weekly column to Money and Markets, are you still going to continue with your every other week video podcast as you had before?
A: I have let my publisher know that those market videos need to be reinstated on the Money and Market’s side, so I hope to re-introduce them soon. I’ll keep you posted.
Q: Would a government-debt-induced Black Swan event take a toll on the newly forming housing bubble, even temporarily?
A: I don’t believe that housing or property prices are in a new bubble. So the answer is no. To the contrary, I think a new bull market in property prices is just getting started. U.S. property prices are very cheap from an international point of view, and U.S. property is also becoming a safe haven for capital from Europe and Japan.
Q: Is it accurate to say that the bubbles being formed by the Fed in the stock market and housing markets are parallel ... as one goes, so will the other?
A: Yes and no. Yes in the sense that the two asset classes should move higher together. No in the sense that they are not “bubbles” — they are a long way from becoming bubbles.
Q: With the Fed buying nearly all U.S. debt, why would interest rates rise?
A: Because, very simply, in the end, the Federal Reserve does not control bond prices or interest rates. The markets do.
Q: Could governments/central banks be forced to stop their quantitative easing because of its inflationary side-effects?
A: Yes, they could, the markets could force them to. Once the free markets gain back control, and they will, bond prices would plunge, sending interest rates higher — and a direct message to the Fed that inflating the money supply will not work.
But it’s hard to say whether it will come sooner rather than later, choking off inflation, or come later rather than sooner. It does appear that the bond market bubble is starting to already implode, which means the bond market is well aware of the risks in current Fed policy.
Q: When it looks like gold will bottom, would it be better to invest in mining stocks or gold bullion in storage?
A: A good combination of diversified precious metals investments will be best.
Q: I’m also a member of your Power Portfolio. And I noticed that when you gave another sell signal in gold at the $1,551 level last month, Goldman Sachs also came out and said sell gold. Is Goldman following your work? It sure seems like they are.
A: Not that I know of. But it sure seems like the firm has been somehow getting my signals! However, Goldman’s sell signal is a bit late, as I turned bearish quite some time ago.
Q: Is the bull market in gold and silver over?
A: No, not by a long shot. It’s merely correcting now.
Q: Do you think the euro will survive?
A: No, not in its present form. At best, it will survive but only with Germany and perhaps a few other northern European countries that will use it.
I don’t see Greece, Spain, Cyprus, or many other European countries staying in. They will ultimately have to pull out and go back to their own currencies and devalue them to get out of the mess they’re in. My hope is that they can do so without bloodshed.
Best wishes and stay tuned,
Larry

[Spectrism]

Silver could break thru $22 today. So far it is holding. If it breaks 22, it could dip nicely.

I noticed APMEX pricing for silver eagles dropped under $30 too. Silver Maples- around $27.

.9999 Maples will be my next target.

[Jewboo]

http://www.practicaltacticaltraining.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/how-to-negotiate-on-a-used-car-salesman.jpg

Q: I understand the importance of storing physical gold in allocated storage. I’d like to know your thoughts on these companies — Bullionvault, Goldmoney, Hard Asset Alliance.

A: I can only vouch for the Hard Asset Alliance at this time, where we have done our due diligence.

http://www.silkysteps.com/forum/images/smilies/puppets--(c)-V.N.F.gif THANKS LARRY!

[gunDriller]

Silver could break thru $22 today. So far it is holding. If it breaks 22, it could dip nicely.

I noticed APMEX pricing for silver eagles dropped under $30 too. Silver Maples- around $27.

.9999 Maples will be my next target.


i would love to collar somebody who is good at the chemistry of electro-plating & electrolytics, to see if there is ever really a need for .9999 purity, instead of .999.


i know that the less experience an engineer has, or the more bureaucratic organiztion they work for, the more likely they are to want to "play it safe" - which means you use 4-9's Silver in your processes. which means there evolves a premium for .9999 Maples.

i can't help but wonder if in 10 years, those of us who have Maples will be selling our Maples directly to solar panel manufacturers and other people who are running industrial processes that require solid Ag.


i also wonder in what form those anti-bacterial foam things that come with chicken, the people that make those, what form do they buy their silver in ? metallic silver, or a solution of Silver Nitrate (silver dissolved in Nitric Acid), or some other formulation.

i doubt those things need .9999 Silver over .999. and they don't use much silver, micro-grams or nano-grams. or pico-grams.

but they do use silver.


but in any case - .9999 Maples are Beautiful.

i think the Cartel would love to drive Silver below $22 for the weekend. but i'm not sure if they have enough fire-power. i'm pretty sure they have enough stupidity.

[Sparky]

I was never under the impression that .9999 purity was for practical reasons. I thought it was for the same reason that they make "proofs", i.e. brilliant uncirculated coins are very shiny so we don't really "need" proof coins, but you are simply paying for that next higher level of quality.

[Serpo]

Today whistleblower Andrew Maguire told King World News that massive global physical demand reveals that gold is in fact in a full-fledged bull market. Maguire, who recently appeared in the extraordinary CBC production titled, “The Secret World of Gold,” also spoke with KWN about what’s happening with GLD, bullion banks and the LBMA. Here is what Maguire had to say in part I of an extraordinary series of interviews to be released today.


Maguire: “Let’s take a minute now and take the blinkers off of this so-called ‘bear market’ in gold. You cannot have a bear market when even the officially reported demand is surging to its highest levels in 18 months.



On top of this official data we also know that wholesale demand is exponentially larger. We see this by monitoring the less transparent daily wholesale market, and those outflows are not even recorded in this data....



Continue reading the Andrew Maguire interview below...












“You can’t call it a ‘bear market’ when we see consistent $30 premiums in Shanghai, India, and the Middle-Eastern markets. You can’t call it a bear market when we see extended and increasing delivery bottlenecks and backlogs at the refiners.



You can’t call it a bear market when bullion banks are actively defaulting on an increasing number of clients who have the audacity to ask for the delivery of their bullion from these LBMA bullion bank vaults. If we were in a bear market they would be trying to rid themselves of this bullion.



We have a fractional reserve LBMA bullion bank system, and they were being drained of immediately deliverable, allocated supply. Bear in mind that this was happening before the April 12th paper market smash. So in March, when we spoke, we saw the beginning of the official intervention in the paper gold market. I remember speaking to you at the time about how we were threatening to trip extremely large, margined naked short stops above the $1,620 level.



But then Cyprus reared its head and tipped the entire balance, scaring both dollar and euro gold holders into racing to get their (physical) gold out of the paper market, to actually take physical delivery. Think about it, Eric, there was already large central bank and sovereign interest in the $1,600s.



And the rearward looking official data that we see now reflects hundreds of tons entering Asian markets at those prices ($1,600s). Now that the paper markets have distorted supply/demand fundamentals (even further) by adding hundreds of tons of synthetic gold supply. They have ended up accelerating this outflow of bullion.



This migration of bullion (from West to East) is, in reality, far in excess of the (roughly) 310 tons that was redeemed out of GLD. And on that subject, not all of what was redeemed out of GLD was long capitulation, which is not what you are hearing from the mainstream media.



Within these redemptions there were actually funds that I have met with which have redeemed shares to take actual delivery. And if they were doing it, there were others who were doing it. It barely costs more to vault (your own) gold, than it does to hold the ETF.



This is long-term money that is not fooled by the paper markets. The picture is not as it seems. So this ‘bear market’ is 100% in the virtual market. Yet this underlying physical market has diverged into a full-fledged ‘bull market’ as evidence by hard, official data showing the strongest physical demand in 18 months.”


http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/5/17_Maguire_-_Physical_Demand_Shows_Gold_In_Massive_Bull_Market .html

[Spectrism]

If you are making colloidal silver, the recommendation is to use .9999.

I use .999 anyway since I haven't yet gotten any .9999.

From pharma or chemical point of view.... and I am sure doc can set us straight here, 99.9% pure means that you can have a tenth of a percent impurity which could be hazardous with the wrong impurity. Since so little is used in the colloidal silver, the concentration of the impurity is further diluted. All the same, I would not want 0.1% mercury or lead in my food.

To give you an idea of impurities, I oftern use chlorine bleach - sodium hypochlorite- as a biocide in drinking water. An amount of 3 ppm (parts per million) is good. That bleach may have mercury in it from the manufacturing process of a few parts per billion. So, in the water, we could get about 1. part mercury per (10exp17) parts water. Any mercury is bad. If we got into the parts per million range, it would be dangerous.... deadly.

0.1% = .001 which is one part per thousand. That would be an unacceptable contamination for medical and food grade for certain hazards.

[gunDriller]

Ag closes at $22.26. now that's FRN-worthy ! :)

[Neuro]

Ag closes at $22.26. now that's FRN-worthy ! :)
Indeed it is! Sure it could go under $20, but I don't think physical would be available at all then, apart from e-bay at ridiculous premiums, think +50%! It has one major resistance level left at $21.30, which was the peak in the 2007-8 rally, if that is taken out we would most certainly see sub 20 silver, on the paper, that is!

[Spectrism]

Indeed it is! Sure it could go under $20, but I don't think physical would be available at all then, apart from e-bay at ridiculous premiums, think +50%! It has one major resistance level left at $21.30, which was the peak in the 2007-8 rally, if that is taken out we would most certainly see sub 20 silver, on the paper, that is!

The price of physical is delayed because previously delivered contracts were at higher costs. We need to see a couple months of bullion delivery at the lower price and then we will see physical prices dropping. If we can hang out for a couple months in the $20 range, eventually, prices will come down.

It is hard to predict what will happen since there is no free market anymore. The damned controllers print the money as they please and buy up what they want while pushing prices of some things up and others down.

[Spectrism]

Holy shiite... silver down around $21 right now. I hope it goes down slowly so it can stay down for a while. A pop down then back up does nothing for the physical price. If we see it swing wildly, it is only the manipulators cheating people out of money and positions.


The opening was a fast drop.... now up to around $21.56

Should be an interesting week.

[Spectrism]

Still taking a courageous position....

Important: The Ongoing Gold and Silver Crash …

Larry Edelson | Monday, May 20, 2013 at 7:30 am







I hope you’ve been following my forecasts for the precious metals. If not, here’s a brief summary of some of the major opportunities you’ve missed …
http://finance.weissinc.com/media/images/mam/img/mis/arrow_black.gif Gold was trading at the $255 to $265 level. That’s when I turned bullish on gold as the co-editor of Safe Money Report. My recommendation to subscribers: Load up on gold bullion and mining shares. Gold began an 11-year bull market.
http://finance.weissinc.com/media/images/mam/img/mis/arrow_black.gif September 2008: Gold plunges in the middle of the real estate crisis. Most analysts were convinced it was the end of gold’s bull market. Not me. I stood pat and told my subscribers to buy into the selling panic and increase their allocation to gold from 15 percent of their portfolios to a full 25 percent. Gold explodes higher, soaring to well over $1,000 an ounce.
http://finance.weissinc.com/media/images/mam/img/mis/arrow_black.gif September 7, 2011: Gold hits a record high of $1,920 an ounce. Less than two weeks later …
http://finance.weissinc.com/media/images/mam/img/mis/arrow_black.gif September 18, 2011: In Real Wealth Report issue #89 and in my columns in Uncommon Wisdom, I proclaim the high in gold is in and that the yellow metal is entering an interim bear market.
11 days after gold’s record high, I give Real Wealth Report subscribers specific recommendations to hedge their gold holdings. Gold plunges almost $200 an ounce.


http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/2719/image1.jpg



The downside pressure on precious metals is boosting the value of the U.S. dollar quite dramatically.



http://finance.weissinc.com/media/images/mam/img/mis/arrow_black.gif October and December 2011: I instruct Real Wealth Report subscribers to add to their gold hedges and exit ALL mining shares. Gold plunges anew.
http://finance.weissinc.com/media/images/mam/img/mis/arrow_black.gif February 2013: George Soros DUMPS half his gold holdings. Unlike Real Wealth Report subscribers, who already knew gold was in an interim bear market and who hedged their gold, measured from gold’s record high — Soros’ gold holdings lose roughly 29 percent of their value.
http://finance.weissinc.com/media/images/mam/img/mis/arrow_black.gif April 12, 2013: Goldman Sachs turns bearish gold. Gold has already lost more than $350 from its record high, or 18 percent.
Goldman turns bullish again after mid-April’s devastating gold rout. I say no: Gold is set to fall more.
http://finance.weissinc.com/media/images/mam/img/mis/arrow_black.gif April 15, 2013: While clinging desperately to their gold, giant gold investors John Paulson and David Einhorn are hit with $640 million in losses.
You can see the dates and all of the twists and turns in gold as well as my forecasts in this chart below. Since I initially forecast gold’s interim bear market way back on September 18, 2011, gold has plunged more than 28 percent while the average mining share has lost more than twice that, a whopping 59.8 percent.


http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/2719/chart1.jpg (http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/2719/chart1s.jpg)
Click for larger version (http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/2719/chart1s.jpg)
Gold’s Bear Market Is Not Over!
Just look at last week’s action. After a failed rally attempt, gold plunged anew. As I pen this issue, gold is sitting on the next level of support at $1,368. Once that gives way — and it will — gold is going to take another nosedive.
Silver too is getting crushed again. Since its April 26 high of $24.35, silver has lost another 9.2 percent as I pen this issue. All told, silver has plunged an incredible 55.7 percent since its high on April 21, 2011.
Why Are These Oh-So Precious Metals
Collapsing When All Is Not Well with the World?
There are several reasons. And I’ve written about them numerous times. But here are the two chief …
First, from a cyclical and technical perspective, it’s just not time yet for their interim bear markets to come to an end. Nor is it time for the next phase of their long-term bull markets to reemerge.
I cannot give you the precise timing. That will depend upon my trading models and what they show. The models are fluid, and they take into consideration a host of variables and factors.
Second, just as I’ve also been forecasting, deflation has the upper hand right now. Wholesale prices are plunging, as are nearly all measures of inflation.
Most importantly, however, is the severe rot that is infecting Europe. France is now back in recession. Spain is still in trouble. So is Italy. Even Germany is starting to wallow now.
On top of it all are the insane politicians in Europe who insist on raising taxes and implementing austerity measures. Even worse, there’s now increasing talk that the “bail-in” that occurred in Cyprus — the confiscation of uninsured depositors’ money — will be used as a solution when banks in other European countries fail.
All this, and more, is sending European money into hiding. But not much of it is finding its way into gold and silver.
Instead, most of that money is going largely into cash, which is boosting the value of the U.S. dollar quite dramatically, putting additional downside pressure on the precious metals.
For now, if you’re hedged up in gold and silver or speculating on their downside potential, per my suggestions in the March 4 (http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/are-we-there-yet-51539) and April 3 (http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/important-update-on-gold-and-silver-51676) Money and Markets columns to buy the ProShares UltraShort Gold (GLL) and the ProShares UltraShort Silver (ZSL) — then simply hold those positions. As I pen this column, they are up 25.4 percent and 46.8 percent, respectively.
Also hold the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP), which I also suggested you consider buying in the aforementioned columns. The dollar is about to explode higher again as the euro is on the verge of collapsing.
Best wishes,
Larry

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/important-the-ongoing-gold-and-silver-crash-51876

[Serpo]

This looks very much like a bottom to me..............



http://gotass.ca/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/THE-BEST-BOTTOM-IN-NORTH-AMERICA12-2012-e1333336036255.jpg (http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&docid=rcWf41DC9huV_M&tbnid=vWTMeazTE8LPDM:&ved=0CAgQjRwwADgI&url=http%3A%2F%2Fgotass.ca%2F%3Fpage_id%3D270&ei=-3maUf6cK-SWiQfr5IDoCQ&psig=AFQjCNFnkFhKGFbGSrUMBkermkh6w_s9uw&ust=1369164667736530)





Norcini has been stunningly accurate in his predictions of the movement in the gold and silver markets. Now the acclaimed trader discusses these incredibly important developments in both of these markets: “Gold appears to have successfully retested its former spike low down in that important support level between $1320 - $1340 and held. What is important from a technical analysis perspective is that the volume completely dried up as price worked its way back into that critical support zone noted on the 4 hour price chart.



Bears were hoping to be able to recruit a wave of fresh converts to their side and give them the firepower to pressure the market down through this level, thereby touching off another wave of sell stops and setting up a fresh new leg lower in price. Obviously, there appears to have not been a large contingent of traders interested in selling gold aggressively down at these levels right now. That gave some would-be longs the excuse they were looking for to re-enter the market plus stirred some mild, but not aggressive short covering on the part of the bears. However that all changed rather abruptly!



http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/5/20_Incredibly_Important_Developments_In_Gold_%26_S ilver_Markets_files/KWN%20Norcini%20II%205%3A20.jpg





As you can see on the following two minute chart below, after the initial fireworks that occurred in early Asian trading last evening, volume died off in the Comex gold futures and continued to remain lackluster until around 11:00 AM CDT. Out of nowhere, the market surged $32 higher in the matter of a mere six minutes on huge volume. Notice that volume leaped to over 10,000 contracts trading hands in one 2 minute interval. That is short covering and some serious short covering at that.



http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/5/20_Incredibly_Important_Developments_In_Gold_%26_S ilver_Markets_files/KWN%20Norcini%20I%205%3A20.jpg





There does not appear to have been any particular catalyst for the move higher other than the fact that the US Dollar was weaker. However, I noticed a couple of things that merit some mention. The first of these is the performance of crude oil. It was lower early in the session but as the stock market continued its one way trip into the outer regions of space, crude reversed those losses and moved higher. At one point is was up over 1% on the day reaching a peak of $97.11 before drifting a bit lower.



Also, the bond market, which was also higher early in the session, lost those gains and began moving lower with interest rates moving up correspondingly. I am very hesitant to say this, but maybe, just maybe, we are watching some incipient signs of a shift towards inflation on the part of some larger traders. Honorable mention must go to copper which also refuses to break down. Strength in copper is generally beneficial towards silver....



Continue reading the Dan Norcini interview below...



http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/5/20_Incredibly_Important_Developments_In_Gold_%26_S ilver_Markets_files/shapeimage_22.jpg














http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/5/20_Incredibly_Important_Developments_In_Gold_%26_S ilver_Markets_files/shapeimage_22_1.jpg





“I, along with some others, have been bewailing the fact that Central Banks around the globe have been able to embark on a money creation scheme which is unprecedented in economic history without causing the least bit of inflationary fallout. When you consider that trillions have been conjured into existence through bond buying programs, without the least bit of consequences, you are tempted to say that the laws of supply and demand have been suspended and monetary science has been turned on its heels.



Could it be that the volatility in the Japanese government bond markets, along with the very slow, but methodically move upwards in interest rates here in the US are some early warning signals that some investors/large players are beginning to rethink their “the best of all worlds” scenario? In other words, we have seen stocks surging one way, interest rates comatose and commodity prices going the other way, namely lower, all based on the idea that the inflation genie is well contained within its magic bottle. If this is a subtle shift in that thinking, and it is a bit early to say with any dogmatism, then this would explain the strong buying interest in both gold and silver and today’s lower levels.



The price action in silver is about as volatile as anything I have ever witnessed in that pit! After collapsing 9%+ last evening in early Asian trade, a collapse into a downside air pocket that required CME Group to halt silver trading four different times, silver reversed course as gold moved higher. This time around, it was not bulls getting forced out; it was bears especially those who shorted below $21. Their losses must be enormous right now. Look at the price action. You can see the panic among the shorts by the surge in volume as price moved through the overnight high in price.



http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/5/20_Incredibly_Important_Developments_In_Gold_%26_S ilver_Markets_files/KWN%20Norcini%20III%205%3A20.jpg





Keep in mind that in both gold and silver, hedge funds have been building larger and larger short positions. We are now witnessing some of those shorts being lifted as the excessive bearishness among that contingent of traders has caught some of them napping and unprepared for the abrupt turnaround in price.



I should also note here, that we mentioned the significance of the $20 level in silver from a technical analysis standpoint. The level had served to cap rallies back in 2009 and yet again during the first half of 2010. The reverse polarity principle tells us that former overhead resistance “reverses polarity” and then serves to act as support on the way back down. That is precisely what it did today. When one considers that silver had fallen from $50 all the way to $20, the metal begins to look attractive to would-be buyers.



http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/5/20_Incredibly_Important_Developments_In_Gold_%26_S ilver_Markets_files/KWN%20Norcini%20IV%205%3A20.jpg





It appears that the brunt of the selling has run its course, for right now, in both gold and silver. This is being validated by the strong upside showing in the HUI here at midday. It is currently up over 4.5% as this commentary is being written. We have a tradable bottom in place here in the paper gold and silver markets. Now we need to see the physical markets perform. I think after price action of this nature, particularly in silver, many traders are going to take time off for a nice cold beer! I know I sure as hell am!”


http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/5/20_Incredibly_Important_Developments_In_Gold_%26_S ilver_Markets.html

[mamboni]

Rogers seems to suggest that gold must touch $1300 to form a true bottom. In any event, he never sold any gold and is waiting for $1300 before adding tgo his postion:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=jTDsHaBqjm0

[Horn]

This looks very much like a bottom to me..............



http://gotass.ca/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/THE-BEST-BOTTOM-IN-NORTH-AMERICA12-2012-e1333336036255.jpg (http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&docid=rcWf41DC9huV_M&tbnid=vWTMeazTE8LPDM:&ved=0CAgQjRwwADgI&url=http%3A%2F%2Fgotass.ca%2F%3Fpage_id%3D270&ei=-3maUf6cK-SWiQfr5IDoCQ&psig=AFQjCNFnkFhKGFbGSrUMBkermkh6w_s9uw&ust=1369164667736530)




http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/5/20_Incredibly_Important_Developments_In_Gold_%26_S ilver_Markets.html

I'll needn't remind you of your false advertising link.

[Serpo]

I'll needn't remind you of your false advertising link.


ah sorry didnt notice any words there..................................OO)~

[Spectrism]

It looks like the trend is still down... for a while longer.

4956

[MAGNES]

It looks like the trend is still down... for a while longer.

I don't know what you are looking at, GC just broke it's pennant to the upside,
as you post whatever you are posting. Unless something really weird happens
GC has made a very strong bottom and most likely we will only be seeing some
sort of sideways consolidation like last summer. I hoped this would not be true, yet.
I have posted on metals on here on key days this correction, like this post, key day.
I was only able to nibble twice in low 22's looking for a major bottom, 21.00 came off
of comex hours, because they are bastards. This too on it's own is confirmation of a bottom,
the night this happened they opened below 22.00 stops and burned everyone,
who bought ? I noticed your posts on page 1 too. And I'll just leave it at that.
Remember gim and faz.

LOL ! @ Spectrism post below this.

This is the chart that matters, hard saved at tinypic.

http://i44.tinypic.com/o8xrvk.png

http://i43.tinypic.com/98ygdk.gif


Fine Snarky. Go your own way. I have not much interest in talking with the likes of you. More than a year and a half have passed since then with changing market conditions and you think, in your high and mighty stupidity, that this analyst should not adjust his outlook based on market conditions?

BTW- that is why I never answered you over the Facebook bet. I would not want to have a beer with you or even be in a room with you. When I left this forum for a while, it was because of snarky remarks from clowns like you.

Sparky is one of the only people here that has demonstrated he is a trader.

We don't read and follow guru's like the one you posted in OP , both of us
have similar expectations of corrections which are normal and natural and
looking for trading opportunities.

I have posted some of my strategies on here this correction.

People can buy close to the money calls going out a year right now.

Mine the silver charts, or just buy SLV no leverage, or just buy SI physical.

Speccy, when you were buying faz I was warning you off and I owned puts.

And yet you don't appreciate that and don't read my posts and threads on here.

And the chart you posted is useless, sorry, you have not learned.

And I am not saying this to you to hurt your feelings or be bad to you.

Sparky posts gold on here.

[Spectrism]

I don't know what you are looking at, GC just broke it's pennant to the upside,
as you post whatever you are posting. Unless something really weird happens
GC has made a very strong bottom and most likely we will only be seeing some
sort of sideways consolidation like last summer. I hoped this would not be true.
I was only able to nibble twice in low 22's looking for a major bottom, 21.00
came off of comex hours, because they are bastards. This too on it's own is
confirmation of a bottom, the night this happened they opened below 22.00
stops and burned everyone, who bought ?

Here is silver a little closer look.

4957

[gunDriller]

Rogers seems to suggest that gold must touch $1300 to form a true bottom. In any event, he never sold any gold and is waiting for $1300 before adding tgo his postion:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=jTDsHaBqjm0

that seems nuts but i'm sure there's a method to his madness.

in the long run, the difference between buying at $1360 and $1300 will be minor.

he better not be planning on buying 1/10 AGE's. there ain't none.


maybe he has inside info. Blythe is at the tanning salon, chilling out, getting ready for one final price slam.

[Spectrism]

The cost of physical will drop IFF the paper price stays down for a delivery session or two and there is no default. Alot of IFFs in there. When I see a stock or commodity bounce at a spot repeatedly... it is like a werewolf trying to get in the door. First bang does not open it.... nor the second.... but if it keeps hitting the door, there is some kind of push that direction. The silver bullet can only be used after it gets through the door.

Gold? I watch silver more. Silver is where the action is now. Gold is just a big name.

I think PMs got a temporary boost because of the devaluation of Jap yen. That will settle before we see major currency crises. Soon- but not yet.

[MAGNES]

Charts are useless, and the people that make them up seem to keep forgetting the entire thing is rigged.

They sure do look pretty though, and keep people mesmerised...and guessing....deeeeerrrrrpp.

I don't know exactly how you became popular enough on here to spoof,
your post takes the cake, anyone that believes what you just posted
knows shit about the gold and silver market and how it is rigged.
We have been trading this for years even during bad low opportunity times.

You're here to mock everyone, I thought we were friends, you were helping
out some trolls like Joe King and his partner, what happened, you don't follow
my charts, SI posts, why not ? I have had lots of good calls, ask the hat eater.

You mining bit coins ?




Gold? I watch silver more. Silver is where the action is now. Gold is just a big name.

Are you trying to be funny ?

[Spectrism]

Are you trying to be funny ?

Funny? What kind of funny? Funny how?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IWINtUCshxY

[gunDriller]

Are you trying to be funny ?

why did the golden chicken cross the road ?

[Serpo]

Traders and speculators are watching the $1,413/oz resistance level. A daily close above this level will likely trigger the beginnings of a short squeeze.http://silverdoctors.com/gold-bar-supply-constraints-in-singapore-sees-record-premiums/#more-27285

[Serpo]

why did the golden chicken cross the road ?because it was eggasperated

[Serpo]

Mint finds people really want gold — but not ETRshttp://www.gravatar.com/avatar/b9504238ee0e964ff82064addd4e48a7?s=68&d=mm (http://business.financialpost.com/author/pkoven/) Republish Reprint
(http://license.icopyright.net:80/rights/oneButtonTag.act?tag=3.12385?icx_id=327464)



Peter Koven (http://business.financialpost.com/author/pkoven/) | 13/05/29 | Last Updated: 13/05/30 1:11 PM ET
More from Peter Koven (http://business.financialpost.com/author/pkoven/)

http://financialpostbusiness.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/0530gold.jpg?w=930Yuriko Nakao/BloombergConsumers are snapping up precious metals at a breakneck pace following recent price declines.







Executives at the Royal Canadian Mint have joined a chorus of precious metal experts confounded by recent activity in the market.
Two of the Mint’s senior managers on Wednesday pointed out that the demand for its gold and silver coins is soaring through the roof. Yet its exchange-traded receipts (ETRs) have traded at a discount to net asset value this year for the first time, even though they are fully convertible into physical gold and silver.
“We’ve seen this massive physical demand,” Steve Higgins, the Mint’s senior manager of ETR compliance, said in an interview. “There’s a disconnect between that and the trading price of the securities.”
“Disconnect” is a commonly used word in the business right now. Reports from around the world suggest consumers are snapping up precious metals at a breakneck pace following recent price declines. But prices continue to languish as investment funds in North America liquidate their positions in exchange-traded funds.
http://business.financialpost.com/2013/05/29/mint-finds-people-really-want-gold-but-physical-gold-only/?__lsa=64dc-a1d0

[Serpo]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CRKHtXpNm8http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CRKHtXpNm8

[Neuro]

Mint finds people really want gold — but not ETRs

http://www.gravatar.com/avatar/b9504238ee0e964ff82064addd4e48a7?s=68&d=mm (http://business.financialpost.com/author/pkoven/) Republish Reprint
(http://license.icopyright.net:80/rights/oneButtonTag.act?tag=3.12385?icx_id=327464)



Peter Koven (http://business.financialpost.com/author/pkoven/) | 13/05/29 | Last Updated: 13/05/30 1:11 PM ET
More from Peter Koven (http://business.financialpost.com/author/pkoven/)

http://financialpostbusiness.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/0530gold.jpg?w=930Yuriko Nakao/BloombergConsumers are snapping up precious metals at a breakneck pace following recent price declines.



Executives at the Royal Canadian Mint have joined a chorus of precious metal experts confounded by recent activity in the market.
Two of the Mint’s senior managers on Wednesday pointed out that the demand for its gold and silver coins is soaring through the roof. Yet its exchange-traded receipts (ETRs) have traded at a discount to net asset value this year for the first time, even though they are fully convertible into physical gold and silver.
“We’ve seen this massive physical demand,” Steve Higgins, the Mint’s senior manager of ETR compliance, said in an interview. “There’s a disconnect between that and the trading price of the securities.”
“Disconnect” is a commonly used word in the business right now. Reports from around the world suggest consumers are snapping up precious metals at a breakneck pace following recent price declines. But prices continue to languish as investment funds in North America liquidate their positions in exchange-traded funds.
http://business.financialpost.com/2013/05/29/mint-finds-people-really-want-gold-but-physical-gold-only/?__lsa=64dc-a1d0
the ETR's are only fully convertible to physical metal as long as the mint has physical metal. You can't give something you don't have, and since demand is 'through the roof', it is safe to assume they may not have gold to cover their 'fully convertible' ETR's in the future... When if ever did they say sorry we can't sell you this ETR because we are not sure we can procure enough physical metal, to cover our outstanding balance, if our customers would demand that from us. There has never ever been such a shortage of paper gold and silver, but if it was an honest market it would have happened...

[Sparky]

I (and others) have been following this gold price behavior with the 1974-1976 analogy, which was also a 21-month correction in the middle of the last secular bull market in gold. This chart uses the daily London PM fix, which misses intra-day lows, but it's still tracking fairly well. If the analogy were to hold, this current rally would have a strong price push above $1500 within the next couple of weeks, and then stall for a few weeks dropping back toward the mid-1400s. The next big push would then begin in the second week of July, which historically has represented a seasonal low in prices, so I think that's a good one to watch for.

I think the bottom will occur in the April-July time frame. So we may have seen the bottom, but if not, it's around the corner and probably not much more harsh then what we've seen, maybe $1250-$1300. Given the length of this consolidation, I think what we are now setting up for the last major upleg in this long gold bull that started in 2001. I think it's going to be prolonged (2-3 years) and end with a blowoff top near $3200, which is a price I figured in 2005 and it still seems reasonable.

4958

[Spectrism]

Gold’s Next Bull Market: The REAL Forces That Will Drive It …

Larry Edelson | Monday, May 27, 2013 at 7:30 am





http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/2725/LarryEdelson.jpg



Almost no one thought gold and silver could ever get hit as hard as they’ve been hit. Not even the likes of big gold investors like George Soros … John Paulson … Rick Rule … Jimmy Rogers, and many others.
The thing is, they don’t really understand the gold market. They thought they did, but they failed miserably.
http://finance.weissinc.com/media/images/mam/img/mis/arrow_black.gif They failed to understand that the gold and silver markets are like any other market. What goes up for 11 years straight has a very high probability of pulling back for 1 to 2 years. That’s simple technical analysis, and those high-flying money managers didn’t even get that right.
http://finance.weissinc.com/media/images/mam/img/mis/arrow_black.gif They also failed to understand that central bank money-printing is not always bullish for precious metals.
There are times, like we’re going through now, when no amount of money-printing can inflate gold and silver prices, because investors are scared to death to do anything with their money … or they see better opportunities elsewhere, like in stocks.


http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/2725/image1.jpg



There are times when no amount of money-printing can inflate gold and silver prices.



I could go on and on about how the bigwigs missed most or all of the correction in gold and silver and how many billions they and others lost.
But there’s no need for that. I got it right, and I helped my readers and subscribers avoid steep losses, and helped them make pretty big profits to boot.
[Editor's note: If you missed any of these opportunities, then you missed many more in other markets that Larry also covers in detail in his Real Wealth Report. So why not become a member now? It's the best $89 you'll ever spend on your investments. Join now by clicking here. (https://store.weissinc.com/order/rwr89-1-g27?ccode=&em=&sc=P446&ec=5442172)]
So instead, I want to turn your attention to what the next bull market will look like for gold and silver — to the forces that will drive metals higher again, once gold and silver finally do bottom.
The bottom isn’t here yet. But by preparing you for the future and for what will drive precious metals higher again once the bottom does come — you will be light years ahead of other investors.
First, and perhaps most importantly, central bank money-printing will not be the major force driving precious metals prices higher in the future.
Let me be perfectly clear: If you’re counting solely or largely on central bank money-printing to drive gold and silver prices through the roof in the next leg up, then you’ll miss the real reasons the metals will go higher.
Money-printing will be a force, but it will not be nearly as strong a force as it was in the metals’ first leg up from 2000 to 2011.
The reason is simple: Between the towering inferno of as much as $150 trillion of global debt with weak underpinnings and derivatives bets that now approach more than $1.2 quadrillion in notional value …
There is simply no way central banks could ever print enough money to stabilize the global monetary system.
So print or not, the next leg up in the precious metals will be driven largely by a breakdown in the global monetary system, not by money-printing.
A breakdown in the global monetary system means there will be big banks and financial institutions going belly up … sovereign nations, especially in Europe going bust … Washington going bust … and sovereign bond markets collapsing to 10 cents on the dollar.
Money-printing will not solve or prevent or even delay those things from happening in the next several years.
Gold and silver, once they bottom, will start rising again because savvy investors are finally beginning to realize that their Emperors really do have no clothes, and all the money-printing in the world won’t be able to cover that up.
Second, inflation will not be a major force either.
Don’t get me wrong. We face higher inflation in the years ahead. But that part of gold and silver’s next leg up is still a ways off and won’t arrive till late 2015 or early 2016.
In fact, we probably face more disinflation in the months ahead. But here’s the catch: Disinflation doesn’t mean gold and silver prices cannot go up.
Indeed, they can. The more deflation we get over the next few months, the more bullish it will become for gold and silver. It will mean investors and consumers are hoarding cash and other valuable assets. Hoarding reduces supply, which raises prices.
Just take a look at what’s happening in the art world, where the super rich are buying up paintings like crazy. Why are they doing that? They want to hold assets that can appreciate in value, but more importantly, will not be confiscated and that can be hidden and are portable.
Or look at the diamond market, which is on fire. Christie’s and Sotheby’s are reporting record sales volume and record prices for diamonds. Martin Rapaport, founder of the world’s largest diamond trading network, Rapnet.com, reported that a billionaire client of his recently purchased one million dollars’ worth of diamonds and strung them together on a chain.
The client’s reason for stringing them together: When the monetary system comes crashing down and governments are hunting down every penny of wealth they can find to confiscate or tax, he wants to avoid the metal detectors, board a plane with his wife, and head for the hills.
Hoarding of hard assets such as diamonds and gold, is bullish for prices, regardless of whether there is inflation or deflation in the bigger economy.
Bottom line: Do not count solely on inflation to drive gold and silver prices higher going forward. If you do, you will be completely befuddled when gold and silver prices rise, yet there’s no sign of inflation on the immediate horizon, and instead, deflation may still have the upper hand.
Third, are the War Cycles I’ve been warning you about.
In previous columns, I’ve told you how the impact of the war cycles is already beginning to show in many different geo-political realms.
In Syria, in North Korea, in the Cyprus confiscation of depositor assets, in Russia’s recent military moves in the Mediterranean, in China and Japan’s war of words over the Senkaku Islands, in China’s moves in the South China Sea, and more.
This is going to ultimately be the most important force driving precious metals higher. It will coincide with the first force above, the collapse of the world’s monetary system.
It will be a nasty set of conditions where governments are at war militarily or financially with each other …
And governments are at war with their own citizens — repressing more and more liberties and personal freedoms, chasing down assets to tax and confiscate, and more.
In other words, total upheaval of modern society, coupled with a collapse of the global monetary system.
In a nutshell, those are the real reasons gold and silver prices will soar in their next leg up. Not inflation alone. Not money-printing alone. Not even currency devaluations alone.
Get it right, and you won’t be shaken from your new long positions when interest rates go up, or the dollar rises along with gold, and other unconventional market relationships develop.
Right now I am expecting one more major leg down in the precious metals, before the bottom finally arrives.
So if you’re hedged up in gold and silver or speculating on their downside potential — per my suggestions in the March 4 (http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/are-we-there-yet-51539) and April 3 (http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/important-update-on-gold-and-silver-51676) Money and Markets columns to buy the ProShares UltraShort Gold (GLL) and the ProShares UltraShort Silver (ZSL) — simply hold those positions. As I pen this column, they are up 26.5 percent and 48 percent, respectively.
Also hold the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP), which I also suggested you consider buying in the aforementioned columns. The dollar is now exploding higher, and this position is up 2 percent since my March 4 column.
Please stay tuned. We are entering a critical period in many markets.
Best wishes,
Larry

[gunDriller]

http://finance.weissinc.com/media/images/mam/img/mis/arrow_black.gif They failed to understand that the gold and silver markets are like any other market. What goes up for 11 years straight has a very high probability of pulling back for 1 to 2 years. That’s simple technical analysis, and those high-flying money managers didn’t even get that right.


actually, it's more like MASSIVE manipulation, which 'simple technical analysis' sometimes models accurately.

[Serpo]

Total Gold Open Interest 5-Year Low

Thursday, May 30, 2013 at 7:35 pm
This is so astonishing that I had to start a new thread.
I'll just give you the facts and I'll let you decide what it all means.


We are approaching contract expiration and First Notice Day of the June13 contract. This is coming up tomorrow. At the close tomorrow, all holders of the June13 must show their intent for delivery by having 100% margin in their accounts.
For the three days since Friday of last week, total Comex gold open interest has fallen by 10,000, 24,000 and 27,000 respectively for a total drop of 61,726, from 445,517 to last night's 383,791. That's a drop of 13.7%. In three days.
For perspective, total OI bottomed out 1 day after the April13 FND at 407,112
Total OI bottomed out 1 week after Feb13 FND at 420,766
Total OI bottomed out 1 week after Dec12 FND at 427,200
Again, with two days to go before June13 FND, total OI is just 383,791.
Additionally, I've been trying to guesstimate how many might initially stand for delivery in June. Recall that 13,100 stood on FND for Feb but just 6,601 initially stood for April. The April number eventually doubled to 13,000 as folks "jumped the queue" during April.
Back in March, 2 days before Apr13 FND, the Apr13 OI was still 33,774 of a total OI at 419,722 or 8.04%
Back in January, 2 days before Feb13 FND, the Feb13 OI was 82,128 of a total OI at 438,918 or 18.71%
As of yesterday, 2 days before Jun13 FND, the Jun13 was 27,450 of a total OI at 383,791 or 7.15% so it looks like, at least initially, that June will be more like April than February.
Tomorrow, we'll get the final OI numbers for today. Since Wednesday saw gold rally $12 on a 27,000 OI drop (short-covering), what happened today during the $20 rise? Was it longs re-entering as projected on the previous thread or was it even more short-covering? If it was more short-covering, just how low is the total Comex OI right now, right this instant? 360,000? 350,000??

Finally, why does this even matter to you? I'll tell you: Because at 383,791, the total Comex open interest is at historically low levels, the lowest I've ever seen. The records I have don't go back far enough to show anything lower.This is, at a minimum, a multi-year low. Perhaps multi-decade. Maybe someone can email Gene Arensberg? He might know when the total OI was last this low.
But the only time I've ever seen a similar total OI was on 8/17/12 at 385,434. Why is that important? That night gold closed at $1615 and then set off the next day on a four-week trek that took it to nearly $1800. Are we on the edge of a similar rally? Hard to say. Back in August last year, the CoT structure was almost completely different as long interest had been completely wrung out during the awful beatdown of March-August. Now we sit instead with historic levels of Spec shorts...or at least we did when the last CoT survey was taken nine days ago.
So, anyway, I'm no sure what it all means which is why I wanted to simply present the data to you. Is the Comex finally dying the death I've been anticipating since the MFG collapse of 18 months ago? Maybe. Did the desperate criminal beatdown of 4/12-15 begin driving the final nail into the coffin? Perhaps.
Anyway, have at it. I look forward to reading your feedback.
TF

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4749/total-gold-open-interest-record-low

[Serpo]

Speechless Turd

Friday, May 31, 2013 at 5:28 pm
We knew that this week's CoT was going to be interesting but I didn't expect it to leave me speechless.
Look, I know I've been banging this drum for months and all the metals have done is go down. Got it. I read you loud and clear. But we're talking big picture, positioning stuff here. I am 100% firm in my belief that QE∞ caught the bullion banks with their pants down. All of the price action since 9/13/12 has been designed to alleviate the gigantic financial risk and potential liability of being short paper metal. By smashing price, against the fundamentals, from $1800 to $1350 and from $35 to $22, The Cartel Banks have accomplished two things:


They've been able to transfer the vast majority of their potential liability from themselves to the speculator sector (hedge funds, managed money, small investors).
And now, instead of being trapped short, they are a in position to profit from the inevitable explosion in price.

Even though it's blatantly criminal, you almost have to give them credit. That they've been able to pull this off in broad daylight is simply astounding. On the level of Oceans 11.
Once again and with meaning: On 9/11/12, two days before the announcement of QE∞ and with gold already at $1800, The Gold Cartel was net short 237,091 Comex contracts. That's 23,709,100 paper troy ounces or about 737 metric tonnes of gold. As of last Tuesday, they are now net short just 59,221 contracts or about 184 metric tonnes. A reduction of just over 75%! Oh, and did I mention that, over the same time period, the GLD has been raided for 277 metric tonnes? Just thought I'd throw that in, too. Simply magnificent! The Crime of The Century! Ah, screw that. That's The Crime of The 20th Century, too!! Amazing.
So, here are your numbers. Keep in mind that, for the reporting week, gold was up $1.30 while total open interest fell ahead of June13 expiration by 35,086 contracts. Also keep on mind that for Wednesday and Thursday of this week, total OI fell another 25,110 contracts. One can only imagine how much more long-term bullish these levels are as of this weekend.
GOLD
For the week, the Large Specs dumped 16,836 longs and added 6,544 new shorts (quite a few of which got squeezed yesterday and put back on today). This brings the Large Spec net long total down to just 56,879 contracts. Do you think that's a lot? Hmmm. What if I told you that, back on 9/11/12, the Large Specs were net long 182,016? From a different perspective, back on 9/11/12, the Large Spec net long ratio was 6.62:1. As of last Tuesday, it was down to1.49:1. And here's a little more perspective for you: At the price lows on 12/27/2011, the Large Specs were net long 130,788 with a ratio of 4.57:1 and at the price lows of last August they were net long 114,304 with a ratio of 3.43:1. Again, as of last Tuesday, the Large Specs were net long just 56,879 contracts and had a net long ratio of 1.49:1.
The Small Specs also reduced their net long position by a little over 1500 contracts and they are now net long just 2,342 total contracts. Again, by contrast, back on 9/11/12 the Small Specs were net long 55,075. That's a reduction of nearly 96%!
And The Gold Cartel. What did they accomplish this week? Not much...No, they just reduced their net short exposure by nearly 25,000 contracts! Again and as stated above, The Gold Cartel is now net short just 59,221 contracts or 184 metric tonnes of paper gold. Back on 9/11/12, they were net short 237,091 contracts or 737 metric tonnes of paper gold. The new Cartel net short ratio is just 1.34:1. This means that they are now long 3 contracts for every four that they are short. Incredible!
Once again for perspective, at the most recent price bottoms near $1525 in Dec of 2011 and August of 2012, The Gold Cartel was still net short 163,932 and 143,940, respectively. Their net short ratios on those occasions were 2.01:1 and 1.98:1. Again, as of last Tuesday, the numbers are 59,221 and 1.34:1.
SILVER
While interesting, the silver CoT isn't nearly as wild as gold. It's still crazy, though, as you'll see. For the reporting week, silver was down about 25¢ and its OI fell by about 3,300.
The Silver Large Specs dumped another 1,474 contracts this week while adding another 2,750 longs. That net long reduction leaves them net long just a little over 4,500 contracts and drops their net long ratio down to an almost inconceivable 1.16:1. Again, consider these levels and dates for perspective:


On 9/11/12, they were net long 31,482 contracts and had a net long ratio of 4.18:1.
At the 12/27/11 price bottom, they were net long 6,855 with a ratio of 1.40:1
At the 8/14/12 price bottom, they were net long 15,407 with a ratio of 1.93:1.

The Small Specs in silver had little change and are of little consequence right now.
The silver commercials continue to astound. Though the everybody-but-JPM crowd sold 1,326 longs last week, they're still gross long an amazing 66,428 contracts. All of this commercial and spec selling allowed JPM and The Forces of Darkness to cover 4,918 shorts, leaving them gross short just 74,762. This commercial net short reduction of nearly 3,600 contracts leaves them net short just 8,334 contracts and an incredibly, nearly-impossibly low net short ratio of just 1.13:1. Again, for perspective:


Caught with their pants down on 9/11/12, The Forces of Evil were net short 47,272 contracts or 236,360,00 troy ounces of paper silver or about 7,350 metric tonnes. They also had a net short ratio of 2.47:1.
As of last Tuesday, The Evil Ones were net short 8,334 contracts or 41,670,000 ounces. That's 1,297 metric tonnes or a reduction of over 83%!
At the $26 price low of 12/27/11, they were net short 14,312 contracts with a net short ratio of 1.34:1
And at the price low of 8/14/12, they were net short 23,402 with a ratio of 1.49:1
Again, as of last Tuesday, they are net short just 8,334 contracts with a ratio of 1.13:1

Look, I could probably keep typing for hours about the significance of all of this but I think I'll stop here. All you need to know is this: The Bullion Banks have now reduced their net liability in gold by over 75% and, in silver, by over 83%...all since the game-changing announcement of QE∞ last September. Rather than once again trying to cover into rising prices with disastrous results (see April of 2011 in silver and August of 2011 in gold), an evil, insidious and outright criminal plan was made and executed to crush the paper price of both metals. By flawlessly executing this plan, The Bullion Banks have so reduced their potential liability that there can be no doubt that prices will soon be allowed to rise again. When? That's impossible to say, of course. Maybe not until The BBs are net long both gold and silver. Who's to say for certain? But I do know that we are very, very close to a price bottom here when you take this CoT situation and the physical market demand into consideration. Plain and simple.
Finally, we'll have to see how things go once trading resumes Sunday evening. The action today certainly brings my Wednesday post back into play...the one where I speculated that one more washout could come before "a surprisingly disappointing NFP number" on Friday. I guessed that another test of $1350 was possible with a stop-running drop in silver to $21.50 or even a double bottom at $21. Again, given today's action and the $10 or so taken out of gold on the Globex this afternoon, that scenario certainly seems possible, if not likely. Here are two charts that I printed this morning, before this afternoon's decline.
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/sites/default/files/users/u2/paper_5-31amgoldh_0.jpg (http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/sites/default/files/users/u2/5-31amgoldh_0.jpg)http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/sites/default/files/users/u2/paper_5-31amsilvh_0.jpg (http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/sites/default/files/users/u2/5-31amsilvh_0.jpg)
So, anyway, keep the faith. Next week promises to be volatile but fun nonetheless. Enjoy your weekend and try to relax a little. Then come back on Monday with your game face on.
TF

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4750/speechless-turd

[Serpo]

Guest Post: Bill Murphy Adds To Turd's CoT Analysis

Saturday, June 1, 2013 at 11:21 pm
Earlier today, Bill asked if he could share my "Speechless Turd" post with his readers. In return, he graciously offered all of us this access to his latest metals market analysis.
So, here you go. Many thanks to Bill for his insights and his kind words.
MIDAS SPECIAL – Speechless Turd, Something Is Very Wrong, What Could Be Up!
Turd Ferguson, of the TF Metals Report, does superb work and commentary on the precious metals markets. His latest analysis on Friday’s Commitment of Traders Report caught my attention for a number of reasons, in addition to it being so well done.
TF's effort and analysis is well worth highlighting for a number of reasons…
*First the backdrop. The last QE announcement by the Fed in mid-September of last year was an impetus for stock and precious metals markets to move higher. The DOW did just that, dinking up day after day after day. But what has happened to gold and silver is a completely different story.
The prices of gold and silver did bump up very briefly, into the first week into October. But since the precious metals live in a Black is White and White is Blackworld, that was to be it. The Gold Cartel’s stepped-up war on gold and silver was about to begin … with the price of gold around $1793 and silver at $35 and change.
An effort to suppress the prices of each would commence in earnest on a daily basis like I had never seen before. Rarely has a day done gone by in all this time that The Gold Cartel could not be spotted implementing at least one of their repetitive selling tactics.
An entire diatribe could be written on why it was done, but simplistically put, the Fed/US is in a NO SOLUTIONS environment for the financial/economic predicament it has evolved into. The only way out, as they saw it, was to print money, etc. The best way to defuse the longer term ramifications of this action was to SHOOT THE MESSENGER, to disfunctionalize the barometer of US/world financial market health, that being the price of gold. Sister market silver was included because of its relationship to gold … a price dichotomy between the two could not be tolerated.
The escalated war on gold and silver was underway. But this time, The Gold Cartel included other countries, other bullion banks, various hedge funds, etc. It led to the unprecedented attacks on them on April 12 and April 15, as you know all too well. Since then, gold has made some effort to get into recovery mode, while silver has languished, flopping its way into the bottom end of its trading range following the historic raid on gold.
*What Turd’s work shows is that The Gold Cartel’s constant selling has had the effect of spec longs exiting, replacing them by the commercial crowd. The entire dynamic most of the way up of spec longs taking on the commercials has been in a process of reversing, especially since the financial market terrorist attacks of mid-April.
TF on the latest COT numbers which speak for themselves:
"The Bullion Banks have now reduced their net liability in gold by over 75% and, in silver, by over 83%...all since the game-changing announcement of QE8 last September."
This is an extraordinary development over a period of time and is setting up historic moves higher in the prices of gold and silver, which never should have been down at these artificially low levels in the first place. However, there are some caveats which need to be dealt with in the very short term…
-As noted in Friday’s commentary, the Gold Cartel was as visible on Friday as they were 8 months ago. The price plunges on Friday were NOT due to increased speculative selling, at least IMO. We know this because of the way gold and silver played out, in a similar manner as they have done for these debilitating 8 months. Gold failed miserably after breaking out of a 9 time top. Silver, after acting horribly on Thursday, then goes into new low closing territory for the entire move. If this were specs, we wouldn’t see the same trading patterns as we have witnessed all the way down.
-The numbers presented by the CFTC can’t be totally off, but something does not seem right to me. The bottom line is my take is that The Gold Cartel is using offshore, numbered accounts to make them look like spec accounts … in order to disguise what they are still doing and to create a much more bullish picture technically than is really the case ... to suck in even more unsuspectings that a bottom is in.
We know JP Morgan uses offshore accounts. Silver is trading so terribly, it tells me they are using them to further their agenda to bury the price so much that the stubborn longs finally capitulate. As demonstrated, while the gold open interest has collapsed in stunning fashion, the silver open interest is not far from multi-year highs. This is more than highly unusual and suggests something is not right with the visible gold/silver open interest pictures, as portrayed by the COT report.
Nothing that has happened to gold and silver the past many months has been normal. They have been caught up in a scorched earth Gold Cartel devastation policy. It is for ALL THE MARBLES, which is why The Gold Cartel recruited so many allies to assist them in their mission. No ruthless price suppression tactic would be left in the lurch. That gold gave up all of its breakout gains of Thursday above $1400, and then some, is a perfect example what the sordid cartel forces are prepared to do. They made this known to their allies in advance by crushing silver below key $23 the day before.
Their efforts are as well thought out as they are sinister. We are all aware of the hundreds of tonnes of outflows from the ETFs on the way down. Tonnage accumulated all the way up is being disgorged, facilitating other supply used by The Gold Cartel to meet stellar demand for physical. Much of the accumulation in the ETFs were by big league money managers in search of profit and performance for their investors. All was hunky dory with the price of gold going up every year … with gold yielding returns far higher than fixed income investments.
But suddenly all that changed with the gold/silver price collapses, accompanied by the daily relentless move higher of the US stock market. The Gold Cartel knew that money managers would be compelled to dump gold/silver ETF holdings because of their affect on relative performance. IMO, it was one of their reasons for the financial market terrorist attacks. Those money managers who were holding on just wouldn’t be able to take it anymore … and many have not. This all goes back to how comprehensive this vast and devious market manipulation scheme really is.
*So, back to what this may be all about, and it is just a maybe. A colleague of mine and I have gone back and forth for months about what The Gold Cartel’s end game plan is. Much of that has been covered numerous times in this commentary. But, there could be one more thing, which would be the blockbuster of blockbusters if the case.
There is a great deal of talk, as per Turd’s efforts, among others, about the commercials getting longer and longer relative to their normal short positions. There is also talk of The Gold Cartel actually getting long, or at least exiting their positions, before the historic move up in the precious metals begins in earnest. This is what the COT numbers have appeared to tell us over the past many weeks.
But, as already covered, the gold/silver price action doesn’t correlate to the supposed makeup of the open interest numbers. The Gold Cartel appears to be as aggressive as ever. Gold and silver would not be trading in a similar manner as they have since the beginning of October if their modus operandi had changed yet. There is one possibility of what could be going on which would shake the financial world. A thought…
Many in the GATA camp have long talked about an overnight revaluation of the price of gold. Pick a number: $3,000, $5,000+, etc. The reasons for such are for another commentary, but it is a constant theme in our camp. One day we will wake up on a Monday morning to find out the US and other western countries have reset the price.
We know the central banks have nowhere near the central gold they say they have, much of it being leased out. Over the last decade GATA has claimed, based on the input we have received over the years, they have less than half the gold they say they say, and that would be the best case. This is one reason central banks are so secretive about their real gold dealings … the US being a perfect example.
We know how the bullion banks/Gold Cartel have been so short over the years. If a decision was made to revalue the price of gold to that degree, a plan would first need to be implemented so they could cover as many shorts as possible on the Comex and in other venues. It would have to be one like never seen before … both vicious and long-lasting. It would also involve disgorging physical gold and silver positions from the ETFs, badly needed to cover physical precious metals short positions.
Perhaps one of the most misunderstood notions among uninformed precious metals reporters, and the likes of a clueless Doug Casey, is their claim The Gold Cartel has done a lousy job of suppressing the price of gold all these years as per the 12 year price advances. When I explain to reporters how much money they have made by fleecing spec longs over the years with raids like the last one, they go blank. Think how much money JP Morgan has made with their raids on silver in 2008 and in the past year alone, much less mini spank jobs in between and all the way up.
There is only ONE way the price of gold can be revalued without the bullion banks/Gold Cartel getting destroyed, and that is to do it with the price devastated and many of the bullion bank’s shorts covered on the way down, replaced by unsuspecting spec shorts. As it is now, the specs will cover their shorts and go long, as they always do, once the technicals turn positive, moving averages turn, etc. Those longs will need to have corresponding shorts in the futures market. This means the same drill on the way up again as The Gold Cartel does what they do and slows price advances down. To stop a price explosion down the road they will be forced to go back as short as they ever were.
And that will be the case, UNLESS, there is an overnight price reevaluation. In that case, instead of shorting gold all the way up, they would suddenly only need to sell gold at those $3,000 to $5,000 numbers, or not at all. It would be the perfect exit plan to end their nefarious activities over the last number of decades. Mission accomplished.
It would also accomplish something else. An overnight price of that magnitude would bring owners of gold (silver too, as who knows what that price would soar to) out of the woodwork, including me. Gold and silver would flood the marketplace at those dramatically higher prices. This would allow the physical gold and silver shorts to replenish/reconcile the positions on their books. Yes, those losses from selling low and buying high would be considerable, but only a drop in the bucket compared to money made/saved in other financial market arenas … even compared to the costs of saving the western financial market system as a whole.
Their physical market lease losses could also be minimized by buying way out of the money calls on the Comex or on the Over the Counter Market. They could be purchased with very little impact on the futures price because of their distance … i.e., there would be very little delta hedge buying of futures by the writers of the calls.
Should this occur, the effect on the Comex would be devastating. The number of unsecured deficits would blow the exchange out of the water. How ironic it would be that such a dramatic move would cause a never expected Force Majeure … the failure of spec shorts to send sudden losses to the Comex to meet their unsecured, massive overnight money losses. It is doubtful the Comex could survive such an event. Maybe that would be just fine with The Gold Cartel, as they move on.
Whether this sort of clandestine operation is in play or not, we are in the process of moving to one of three monumental money making opportunities of all time. They are all WIN WIN…


We are close to the time of a short covering squeeze, and the end of the unending Gold Cartel bombings initiated in early October.
As is my thinking, we have more to endure before the price moves of gold and silver really kicks in.
This blatant, never-ending assault on gold and silver actually is leading to an overnight night reevaluation in the months ahead.

They are the three in play, IMO. All of them dictate staying with physical market gold and silver positions … and building gold/silver share positions in your firms of choice.
Yes, investing in them, in many cases, has been a disaster for years now. But, what goes around, comes around. In all of the above cases the odds, at this point, of them taking off as per what occurred in the internet mania at the end of the 1990’s, is on the increase, with the risk/reward situation way more than favorable.
To conclude, watching how the gold/silver shares trade in the weeks and months ahead is likely to take on increasing importance. They led the way down and are likely to give us an indication of the major turn in the gold and silver markets. In any of the above scenarios, we need more action in the PM Shares like we saw on Friday, in which they held up very well considering what the US stock market and gold/silver markets did … and that is after a couple of solid up days.
In all of these scenarios The Gold Cartel, and allies, will want to cover their shorts in the share market ahead of any of the above retreat scenarios. Can you imagine what the shares would do on an overnight basis on a revaluation? Sweet dreams on that thought!
===================================
Copyright (c) 1999 - 2013
Le Metropole Cafe, Inc.

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4753/guest-post-bill-murphy-adds-turds-cot-analysis

[mick silver]

Doug Casey on Conspiracies, Gold and the Continuing 'Greater Depression' of the World's Economies
With Staff Report
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http://www.thedailybell.com/images/library/Casey.jpg
Doug Casey

The Daily Bell is pleased to present this exclusive interview with Doug Casey (http://www.thedailybell.com/floatWindow.cfm?id=2137).
Introduction: Doug Casey has appeared on hundreds of radio and TV shows and has been the subject of articles in People, US, Time, Forbes, The Washington Post and numerous other publications. His books include The International Man, Crisis Investing (17 weeks at #1 on the New York Times Bestseller list), Strategic Investing (seven weeks on the NYT list) and, most recently Totally Incorrect. He's the Chairman of Casey Research (caseyresearch.com (http://www.thedailybell.com/30653/caseyresearch.com)), which publishes about two dozen newsletters and numerous special reports. Doug Casey, who's travelled to over 175 countries, and his team have been correctly predicting major budding trends in the overall economy and commodity markets for over three decades.
Daily Bell: Nice to speak with you again. Let's jump right in. What's going on with gold? Why are mining stocks down?
Doug Casey: I'm not concerned about gold being down because markets fluctuate. And considering that gold's been in a bull market for a dozen years, I'm very unconcerned about the fact that it's come off. All the fundamentals that underlie the bull market are still in place.
As far as gold stocks are concerned, they've always been a highly leveraged play on gold so when gold catches cold the gold stocks have always caught pneumonia, and that's the case now. Of course, that's amplified by the fact that costs in the mining sector have skyrocketed and it costs on the average $1,000 to $1,200 to get an ounce of gold out of the ground at this point. The world has been pretty thoroughly explored, and it's not easy to find economic deposits. If you do find one, it will only be because you've spent many millions in high tech exploration. You'll then discover that regulation is brutal, and you'll spend more for lawyers and lobbyists than on geologists and engineers. NGO's will plague you with lawsuits, and incite the natives. Governments will extract huge amounts in taxes and royalties. Capital costs are gigantic, usually now in the hundreds of millions, or billions. After all that it takes close to a decade to get the thing in production. There's much more I can say, but mining is a crappy business.
The good news is that now is a superb time to speculate in these stocks. Their prices reflect all the negatives.
Daily Bell: Why did the price of gold plummet?
Doug Casey: Once again, I see it as just the normal, albeit large, fluctuation. It's not like you shouldn't expect a market that's risen steeply for a dozen consecutive years to come off at some point. Especially since not only does everything look rosy in the stock and bond markets, but even real estate spears to be recovering. A lot of conventional – and foolish, in my view – people think that printing trillions of new currency units has solved the crisis, and obviated the need for owning gold. So there's selling. Perhaps a big trader sold a bunch of contracts to set off a lot of stop losses and panic the market. If so, it was a smart trade, and it worked.
Now, I know that that's not a very sexy explanation. But I'm a believer in Occam's Razor, which hold that the simplest explanation of something is usually the correct one. However, I'm afraid it leads me to a pet subject of mine, one that will both take a while to explain, and will, regrettably, antagonize some of your readers. Many gold bugs (but not all, because I too am a gold bug) seem to think that a coterie of malefactors of great wealth sit around a huge boardroom table, perhaps chaired by Dr. Evil cradling his white cat, and send forth their minions, "Da Boyz," to "smack down" the depressed and struggling gold and silver (http://www.thedailybell.com/floatWindow.cfm?id=804) markets. A large number of gold bugs are also conspiracy bugs. They have all of these standard catchphrases for describing what's happening. I've read their stuff for years and, frankly, it impresses me as little more than accusations, name-calling and conjecture.
I don't doubt that the powers-that-be would prefer to have the price of gold lower – just like they would prefer to have the price of wheat and copper and lumber and everything else lower – but there's no evidence that I've ever been shown other than, frankly, just assertions. They point out that large bullion banks are short a lot of gold. But in the past, at the beginning of the bull market, they were long a lot of gold so this doesn't constitute a proof at all, from my point of view. Nor does the fact that central bankers have said they have an interest in controlling prices. Of course they do. That's part of their mandate – and one more reason central banks (http://www.thedailybell.com/floatWindow.cfm?id=2958) should be abolished. Maybe they've leased out most of their gold to commercial bullion banks to collect some interest, and the bullion banks sold it in the futures markets to collect the contango. If so, wonderful. If they can't give it back that will only serve to drive the price higher.
If there is, in fact, an orchestrated conspiracy to suppress the gold price, it's been a total failure since the last bottom at around $250 in 2001. You've got to ask yourself: How stupid are these people that they would stay short in one of history's great bull markets? I would be happy to believe that the price of gold is being manipulated as long as I'm shown some evidence for that fact. But these people are asserting that the powers-that-be have been short during one of the biggest bull markets in history. Nobody's got that much money – not even governments; they're all bankrupt. And while it's a safe assumption that central banks would like to see a low gold price, I don't believe they really care; these people truly believe gold is a delusion. To credit it with importance is counter to their education, to all their theories.
Another point. It is well known that during the days of the London Gold Pool, when gold was fixed at $35 an ounce, they were, in fact, trying to control its price. But in those days, in the late '60s, there was only half as much gold in the world as there is now. In other words, as best we can tell there were about 3 billion ounces above ground then; today there are about 6 billion ounces above ground. Governments only own 20% of it. In addition to the fact they had a lot more gold to sell then, they were much more solvent than they are today. Today, all these governments are manifestly bankrupt and running gigantic deficits. So if it was ever possible to control the price of gold it would have been possible up to 1971, at $35 an ounce. But now, with all the other things I've brought up, it's impossible with gold at $1400 an ounce. It makes no sense. Not only don't they care; they don't have the ability.
In addition, on Wall Street, all these traders who are actually putting in the supposed short-sale orders that are manipulating the price of gold like skilled yo-yo masters, all these traders talk to each other like teen-age girls. The word would have filtered out, informally, what was going on over the last decade. But there are no rumors about that, and never have been. All there are is assertions from conspiracy theorists (http://www.thedailybell.com/floatWindow.cfm?id=1967). It annoys me because knowledgeable market players hear these assertions, and they naturally roll their eyes, seeing it as further proof that gold bugs have a screw loose.
One thing we do know is that the governments of developing countries – not just developing countries but Russia, China, India and many others – are buying significant amounts of gold at this point. What possible reason would the US government have to keep the price down? To make it cheaper for the Russians and Chinese to buy? That makes no sense, either. If, in fact, the US is suppressing the gold price, then I personally am grateful as a gold buyer.
I've never gotten any answers to any of these questions that I ask, nor do I hear any actual logical explanations from the people who are making this assertion. It's like a meme (http://www.thedailybell.com/floatWindow.cfm?id=654) that's been created and everybody believes it because everybody else says it. Well, there's no actual evidence that I've ever seen. That's going to prove to be a very unpopular view because a lot of people have become very psychologically invested in the thought that government can control the gold price.
As I said, I can see some reasons why they'd want to do that because governments like to try to control everything and, of course, gold has always been like a fire-bell that goes off when there are monetary problems. But nobody's showed me the evidence. All they say is that the big bullion banks are short a lot of gold. Okay, fine. They've been long a lot of gold in the past and there are good reasons why they would be short; one reason is that the mining companies deliver the gold to them. They're always selling because they keep their accounts in dollars, not ounces of gold.
Anyway, I don't want the GATA guys and their supporters to take this personally. I simply think they're wrong, and those are the reasons why.
Daily Bell: Explain how there can be immoderate demand for physical gold and silver while the paper markets are signaling a slump?
Doug Casey: Perhaps the average gold buyer is fearful of what's on the horizon. And he likes a bargain, which gold offers right now. Gold isn't cheap, but it's better value than stocks, bonds, or real estate.
Daily Bell: Why does the London gold exchange "fix the price" of bullion? Why not generate prices from free trading?
Doug Casey: Well, I think that's a good idea. The London gold price is a bit of an anachronism anyway, but tradition is important. And, of course, London is one of the world's financial centers, and certainly the most important in Europe, where a lot of gold is traded, deliveries are made and a lot of gold is stored. In a free-market world anybody should be able to set up a new gold exchange and get buyers and sellers together to determine the price as they will. But that's hard to do. Why isn't Tokyo or for that matter Hong Kong or for that matter Moscow major centers of gold trade? Perhaps Beijing will be some day, since China has become the world's biggest producer, and the Chinese understand the value of gold. But there are already commodity exchanges in New York and Chicago where gold is freely traded. You as an individual can't join in the London fixing, but you certainly can on the Comex.
But you make it sound conspiratorial. It seems that if you don't believe in a conspiracy theory to do with gold today, it's like being a religious (http://www.thedailybell.com/floatWindow.cfm?id=854) heretic. Speaking to this, about conspiracies with gold or anything else, people constantly conspire. Adam Smith (http://www.thedailybell.com/floatWindow.cfm?id=2433) pointed this out in his book, The Wealth of Nations. Whenever a couple of people of the same trade get together, they always try to conspire for their interests and against the interests of the public. So it's not that I deny that people conspire; it's just that it's extremely hard to conspire successfully, especially when we're talking about people who are very wealthy and very powerful. It's hard enough for me to conspire with a few friends and decide on what movie we're going to see or what restaurant we're going to go to after the movie. It's extremely hard for wealthy and powerful people to come to what's likely an illegal agreement, and keep it. So I understand the theory, but once again, I'd really just like to see some actual evidence as opposed to name-calling and assertions.
As an aside, I'd like to point out that while conspiracy theories have a bad name – in good measure because of the type of people that often deal in them – that's not to say I accept conventional explanations of things, either. There are huge unanswered questions about many things in today's world – the two Kennedy assassinations, what actually happened at Waco and Oklahoma City, the strange deaths of Vince Foster and Ron Brown, what happened to Building 7 on 9/11, what was really going on with the assassination of Osama bin Laden (http://www.thedailybell.com/floatWindow.cfm?id=2722)... it's a long list.
Daily Bell: If the paper price and physical price diverge, will more and more transactions take place privately?
Doug Casey: There's not a lot of trust in the futures exchanges on the part of the average person who's interested in commodities, and with good reason, especially since the collapse of Refco years ago and then MF Global recently – which was a real fraud for which nobody's been prosecuted. It was assumed that it was basically impossible for a clearing broker to go under and cost the public money. And the fact that all of the big banks and brokers that are out there today are only in existence because of government support and bailouts, it's very understandable that there's very little trust in public markets and financial institutions at this point. That's been compounded by the collapse of Cypriot banks last month.
Personally, I'm no longer dealing in gold in the futures markets, but I do buy gold almost every month and sometimes significant quantities of it. I don't see gold as a trading vehicle, but rather as the only financial asset that's not simultaneously somebody else's liability. I therefore buy it for safety, for security, for prudence; I don't see it as a speculative vehicle. Anyway, it was a great speculation 12 years ago at $250; today, at $1400 it's a prudent allocation of capital, but has less upside. That's why I buy it for cash and I keep it in my personal possession or in the possession of another entity, like Goldmoney (http://www.goldmoney.com/) and the Hard Assets Alliance (http://www.hardassetsalliance.com/), that I really trust.
The futures markets are great things. But people who own gold through them – or through ETFs that use them – are missing the point. Gold is a hedge against paper assets. It makes no sense to own it as a paper notion, where you can't take delivery for practical purposes.
As far as the prices of paper gold and physical gold diverging ... that question again seems to imply the existence of a shadowy conspiracy, and we've discussed that. But it does appear that premiums on coins are rising.
Daily Bell: You told us during our last interview that confidence was breaking down in the dollar whereas the mainstream media (http://www.thedailybell.com/floatWindow.cfm?id=1861) seems to believe that confidence is breaking down in money metals. How can that be?
Doug Casey: The US government is running deficits of a trillion dollars per year, and I expect those deficits will grow dramatically in the years to come. The Federal Reserve (http://www.thedailybell.com/floatWindow.cfm?id=1855) is, in addition, buying $85 billion a month in paper and monetizing it. In addition, there are $7 or $8 trillion outside the US held by people who don't have to use dollars, but use dollars only because they're liquid and convenient. Every country is desperately trying to obviate the use of US dollars, and trade with their own currencies – the Iranians and the Indians, the Russians and the Chinese. They don't appreciate the fact that all their transfers have to go through New York. Furthermore, it makes no sense to use the unsecured liability of a bankrupt and unreliable government for trading. The dollar is a hot potato, and confidence in it is going to break down totally at some point.
As far as a lack of confidence in gold and silver, it's as I said before: Markets fluctuate. Nothing goes straight up or straight down. But you certainly shouldn't credit anything you read in the mass media about whether there's confidence in gold or not. The writers know very little about economics, and even less about the metals. They're just journalists who have no economic or financial skills, no personal money and about zero experience in the markets. So it's just the blathering, the uninformed opinion, of somebody who was given a job by a newspaper or magazine, and has to write an article—today about gold, tomorrow about cats, the next day about diets; they feel like they always have to say something, no matter how inane. Their thoughts are meaningless, except as a contrary indicator. Somebody says something and starts a meme, and then other people repeat the meme. It amazes me, actually.
Daily Bell: Is it possible the physical price of gold and silver are higher than the stated price?
Doug Casey: What I hear is that many bullion dealers are sold out of gold coins, that there are a lot of buyers that have to wait a long time for delivery, and that the premiums on physical gold and silver are up considerably from the norm. If you're a big buyer, and you find you can get a 100-ounce contract much more cheaply on the Comex, then perhaps you should buy it and take delivery. Personally, I prefer coins; they're much more fungible.
Daily Bell: Is there a growing black market in gold and silver?
Doug Casey: You only have black markets when there are political controls of some type, in other words, when the government says the price is X but the market says the price is Y. A black market arises in the discrepancy between the real price and the government-mandated price. At this point, there is no black market in gold or silver. Most places in the world, they're freely traded commodities. So no, I don't see how one could say that there's a black-market price because there's not. Maybe there will be if the government attempts to illegalize gold, or set the price of gold.
On the other hand, governments are trying to clamp down on Bitcoin (http://www.thedailybell.com/floatWindow.cfm?id=4336) because of its growing use as an alternative currency. They're claiming it aids in the artificial crime of money laundering. I have no doubt that the same thing will eventually happen to the metals. Governments want you to use only their fiat currencies, and only through banking channels. Even using cash, $100 bills, leads to suspicion of a crime today. They're starting to see the metals in that light, as well.
Daily Bell: How will this affect gold miners?

[mick silver]

Doug Casey: As I said earlier, mining is no longer a business suitable for prudent investment—it's purely a speculation. The production of gold has been flat to declining for years and it's likely to stay flat or, more likely, decline considerably. The gold mining industry in South Africa used to turn out two-thirds of world production when gold was $35 an ounce, now it's about one-sixth; it used to be highly profitable at $35 and now it's closing down with gold 40 times higher. It's a portent of the future of gold mining. Worldwide production is about 80 million ounces a year; I think it's going a lot lower.
But current production is trivial in determining the price of the metal. What determines it is whether the 7 billion people in the world want to buy or sell the 6 million ounces above ground. My opinion is there's going to be a groundswell of buying as people try to get out of their governments' rapidly degrading currencies. Certainly in Western countries only a tiny portion of the population own any gold. They're ignorant of the fact that its main use isn't for jewelry or dental fillings; it's money. That perception will change. My belief is that in 20 years gold will once again be used in daily commerce as money. I've discussed why in previous interviews here.
Daily Bell: Enough about gold. Let's move on to some other topics. Is Europe coming apart or is the crisis over?
Doug Casey: No, the crisis isn't over. To the contrary, the crisis has a long way to go because all these stupid governments are not just doing the wrong thing; they're doing exactly the opposite of the right thing. They're all bankrupt and the only way that you can solve this problem is by radically cutting expenses, stop printing money, eliminating regulations, radically cutting tax burdens and getting rid of subsidies and welfare programs wholesale. But, instead, they're raising taxes, increasing regulations, printing money by the carload and just marginally cutting some spending.
The European Central Bank (http://www.thedailybell.com/floatWindow.cfm?id=1857), and the central banks of almost every country, for that matter, are attempting to keep old, unsustainable patterns of production and consumption going with more money printing. So no, things aren't getting better. This is going to wind up in a catastrophic depression. And we've been in a depression since 2007. I define a depression as a period of time when most people's standard of living drops significantly. But it can also be defined as a period when distortions and misallocations of capital in the marketplace are liquidated – that should be happening but it really hasn't even started to happen yet. When that starts happening things will really get ugly. So no, this is not over by any means. It's still early days. As Einstein said, after hydrogen, stupidity is the most common thing in the universe.
Things have seemed to have gotten better in the world over the last few years since they've had massive quantitative easing – which is to say currency printing. Sure, if you create trillions of dollars of currency units it makes people feel richer than they really are and it encourages them to continue living above their means. It just guarantees an even worse depression. What's coming up is going to be the biggest thing in modern history. It's not just going to be financial and economic. It's going to be a political, social, and military earthquake, as well.
Daily Bell: Will the euro (http://www.thedailybell.com/floatWindow.cfm?id=28311) hold together?
Doug Casey: No. As I've said before, if the dollar's an "IOU nothing," the euro's a "who owes you nothing." It's an extremely badly structured fiat currency (http://www.thedailybell.com/floatWindow.cfm?id=803). Money is just a medium of exchange and a store of value; it shouldn't also be a political football and a form of taxation. The 19th century was the most peaceful and prosperous time in the world's history. And the rate of growth was far higher, and sounder, than it is today, as well. That was largely because the state was a relatively minor influence in society. Inflation didn't exist because gold was money – gold was the international currency – taxes were extremely low, regulations were low. The answer is to go back to something that actually worked, which was the economic system we used in the 19th century. It wasn't laissez-faire capitalism (http://www.thedailybell.com/floatWindow.cfm?id=1903), but it was far closer to it than what we have today, which is to say nothing but variations of socialism (http://www.thedailybell.com/floatWindow.cfm?id=1901) and fascism (http://www.thedailybell.com/floatWindow.cfm?id=1902).
The reason these people want to preserve the euro is because it helps them to control and manipulate economies. But control and manipulation of economies is not a good thing. They will fail totally.
Daily Bell: What's happening in South America?
Doug Casey: I live in Argentina, basically, and the government down here is criminally insane. That's the bad news. The good news is that on an individual basis they leave you alone. And certainly once you're out of Buenos Aires, in the provinces you hardly even know they exist. The currency controls that they have actually work to the benefit of people who have a strong foreign currency to buy things. It's very, very cheap here in Argentina now. It's a fantastic place to live.
But frankly, all over South America they're going the wrong way. Uruguay is very socialistic. Brazil is almost like the movie "Brazil," where it is almost impossible to do anything because of the bureaucracy, the taxes, the regulations. Venezuela – everybody knows that story. From an investor's point of view there are only two countries in South America that make sense – Colombia and Chile. But I'm not here in Argentina for that reason; I'm here for the lifestyle. And from a lifestyle point of view, Argentina's still number one on the list. You've got to decide why you're in a country and that's why I'm here.
Daily Bell: What's going on with China – slowdown or steady as she goes?
Doug Casey: Actually, I just got back from two weeks in the Orient and the Middle East. It seems to me that the Chinese are riding for a huge fall. They've made tremendous advances from being one of the most backward and primitive countries in the world 30 years ago. The country's been transformed. That's the good news. The bad news is that there have been a lot of distortions and misallocations of capital in the process, largely due to the intervention of the Chinese state and politically driven lending by their banks. I suspect their banking system is completely bankrupt, having made lots of uneconomic loans to state enterprises.
The thing to remember is this, however: The world at large should keep getting richer over the years and decades to come, notwithstanding what I call The Greater Depression. That's for two reasons. Number one, the average person will continue trying to produce more than he consumes because even if he knows nothing about economics, he understands that he's got to produce more than he consumes on a personal level just in order to improve his standard of living and have savings to rely on in the future. Even if he thinks the government's a magic cornucopia that will supply everything for him, in the back of his mind there's something that tells him that. So the average person is working to improve himself and build capital. That's number one.
Number two is that there are more scientists and engineers alive today than have lived in all of the world's previous history put together, and technology is going to continue growing and improving for that reason. So I'm optimistic about the long term.
All I'm saying is that we're going to go through a period when the distortions and misallocations of capital that have been cranked into the market place for political reasons are going to be liquidated. That's going to be unpleasant and it's going to have a lot of political consequences, and probably some military consequences as well. So even though the long-term trend is for mankind to ascend from the gutter to the stars, I expect we're going to have some really scary times over the next decade. What we've seen in Cyprus and what we're seeing in Syria and what we've seen in Libya – we're going to see a lot more of that type of thing.
Daily Bell: What's the wisest thing people should be doing right now to be in the best shape for the coming decade, then?
Doug Casey: What should one do, indeed? My advice really remains the same. On a personal level, try to produce more than you consume. Keep your savings in gold, not in currencies. Diversify internationally because your biggest risks today are political, not market risks, not investment risks. The investment risks today are huge because with governments all over the world creating trillions in new currency units they've driven stock markets to what I think are unsustainable levels. They've driven the bond markets to become the biggest bubble in world history. The bond markets are in a bigger bubble now than tech stocks were in the year 2000 or real estate was in the year 2007. Think like a speculator, because they're going to ignite lots more bubbles − including one in gold and gold stocks. Diversify internationally so that all of your assets aren't under the control of one government. And for your savings, keep those savings in precious metals. Also, although it's not a bargain anywhere in the world today, I think well selected, productive agricultural land makes a lot of sense. Also, it is critical to have a crib outside of your native country.
Daily Bell: What about at a personal, lifestyle sort of non-economics level? For instance, perhaps, the reasons you're in Argentina?
Doug Casey: This is perhaps the most European country in the world, from a lifestyle perspective. It's more European than Europe but although it's got all kinds of economic and political problems, it's kind of out of harm's way, down here in the South Atlantic. And it's very corrupt, so that although the government is a kleptocracy, they're in it for the money more than the power. The Argentines are accustomed to chaos, so they're primed for the coming decade.
I've been to 175 different countries in the world and I've lived in 12 at this point and I had to think on what I wanted and where I wanted to go. I pretty well ruled out Europe for all kinds of reasons. Africa is definitely where I would go if I was 30 years younger and wanted to make a huge amount of money, but as a lifestyle choice it's a nonstarter. I really like the Orient and have lived there, but the problem with the Orient is that unless you're a native of a country – unless you're Thai or are Chinese or whatever – you're always going to be an outsider, even if you marry a local.
So basically, for me it boiled down to South America. And having been to every country on this continent, including Guyana and Surinam, both of which I've spent of a lot of time in, incidentally, Argentina, with it's down at the heels elegance and it's corrupt but incompetent government, was just the best place to be. It helps that I played polo for 20 years, too. Also, of all the countries in Latin America, Argentina has by far the longest and best tradition of classical liberalism (http://www.thedailybell.com/floatWindow.cfm?id=1904). There's much more in the way of classical liberal values in this country than in any other in Latin America. So it's got problems, but every place has got problems.
Anyway, I spend most of my time here in the delightful little town of Cafayate, in the wine region of the northwest. We've developed what I feel may be the best resort in the world. Golf, polo, tennis, a world-class gym and spa, a great clubhouse with a big library and video collection is in the works, and about every amenity you can imagine. Plus, the homeowners are from 25 different countries, and they're great folks, very like-minded. I urge your readers to come down and visit. Here's the website: lec.com.ar (http://www.lec.com.ar/).
Daily Bell: Why is it the case that there is such a strong base of classical liberal values in Argentina? What brought that about, do you think?
Doug Casey: An excellent question – and one I am not sure how to answer. Perhaps it's because Argentina used to be one of the richest countries in the world, and by far the richest in Latin America. That was due to a free market, and a lot of people remember that – notwithstanding the current government. Perhaps it's because it's always been by far the most international and sophisticated and best-educated country on the continent, and always exposed to ideas from abroad. Perhaps it's because it's a country of immigrants, opportunity seekers, like the US.
Daily Bell: How will all this – The Greater Depression – end? Government confiscations of everything?
Doug Casey: Let me put it this way. The prime directive of all living entities is to survive. It doesn't matter whether we're talking about an individual or a corporation or a government or anything else. The prime directive is to survive. In the case of governments, they will do anything that they can or need to in order to survive. That means that you can expect more taxes, more inflation, more regulations so that they can keep their personal boats afloat. Of course, the way I see government, it is a parasite upon society so eventually, some of these governments are going to kill their hosts.
I think things are going to get worse before they get better because trends in motion tend to stay in motion until a real crisis turns them around. The chance of any of these US government agencies disappearing voluntarily is slim to none. And this is true of any government anywhere in the world. Perfectly useless, even counterproductive agencies, like the SEC (http://www.thedailybell.com/floatWindow.cfm?id=1856), OHSA, FDA (http://www.thedailybell.com/floatWindow.cfm?id=2956), DOE, HUD, FCC (http://www.thedailybell.com/floatWindow.cfm?id=2557), FAA, FTC – there are hundreds of them – all that purport to serve useful purpose but nothing the market couldn't do vastly better and vastly cheaper. The only way you can get rid of them is by pulling them up by their roots. But that's impossible because their employees would raise hell, and the average person in the public thinks he's being protected by them.
So the only way this is all going to come to an end is when it's completely unsustainable, the government's bankrupted and these things go away because they collapse. They're not going to end voluntarily. So I'm not optimistic about the way this is going to evolve over the next decade. I think you're going to see something that was actually foreseen by Ayn Rand (http://www.thedailybell.com/floatWindow.cfm?id=2656) in Atlas Shrugged.
Daily Bell: Any last thoughts, things you'd like to share with us? Anything new that you're working on now?
Doug Casey: Well, I'd mention this – I'm tired of writing nonfiction and investment stuff. Essentially, that's preaching to the choir. If you want to promote a worldview, you have to do it through fiction. So along with a friend of mine, John Hunt MD, I'm doing a sextet of novels that trace the progress of a normal, middle-class boy as he goes through six unjustly besmirched occupations, occupations that people think only a bad guy would engage in. He first becomes a speculator, then he becomes a drug lord, then he becomes an assassin, then a terrorist, then a warlord and eventually, he turns out to be the anti-Christ. But I'll demonstrate that he can remain a good guy all the while and that all of these things are actually good, not bad things. I find it personally amusing and perhaps I'll develop a cult readership. That's what I'm doing now. It will be Lord of the Rings for a modern audience, Harry Potter for adults...
Daily Bell: Oh, great. That should be interesting. Thank you for taking time with us again.
Doug Casey: Thank you very much.

[mick silver]

Doug Casey's interview is interesting on a number of fronts, including the statement at the end when he says:
So the only way this is all going to come to an end is when it's completely unsustainable, the government's bankrupted and these things go away because they collapse. They're not going to end voluntarily. So I'm not optimistic about the way this is going to evolve over the next decade. I think you're going to see something that was actually foreseen by Ayn Rand in Atlas Shrugged.
We tend to agree with this perspective. Leaving aside various conspiracies and the evidence or lack of evidence, the reality is that this modern system of ours is unstable and certainly apt to degrade ... and thus increases the population that simply decides to drop out. This accounts for the Ayn Rand reference.
Things are certainly changing and will continue to change. For some, those who plan productively and grasp what is going on, these changes will be positive and beneficial. For others, not.
We think we see evidences of it in the increasing decay of civil society, education and infrastructure throughout the West. Additionally, we would tend to believe that the contradictory trends of increased authoritarianism (http://www.thedailybell.com/floatWindow.cfm?id=2606) and the larger entropy being generated by an increased flow of information in this Internet Era are going to create an increasingly chaotic environment.
The 21st century will be nothing like the 20th and the coping skills necessary to survive will be different, too. Fortunately, there are people like Doug Casey who can serve as guides as we face a confusing new world. The basics of Casey's perspective include self-reliance, a recognition of the realities of the current dysfunctional economic system and various methodologies we can adopt to cope.
In this extensive interview, he explains his vision in both practical and visionary terms. As with any perspective on controversial subjects, there are probably areas with which you disagree. But reading through it convinces us once again that Casey is one of the clearer thinkers operating in the alternative media (http://www.thedailybell.com/floatWindow.cfm?id=723) today.

[Serpo]

Today the man who provides macro research and commentary to many of the largest financial institutions and top hedge funds around the world sent KWN an absolutely extraordinary gold chart. Eric Pomboy, whose sister Stephanie Pomboy appears in Barrons and who is founder of Meridian Macro Research, also spoke to KWN about this remarkable gold chart and what it means going forward for the gold market.



Eric King: “Eric, I wanted to get your thoughts on this extraordinary chart you sent to KWN?”



Pomboy: “Clearly the net commercials in the gold market are telling a completely different story than what we are hearing out of the mainstream media, CNBC, et al, that ‘The Fed is going to taper, the gold bull market is over,’ etc.



There is even a possibility that the commercials may go net long gold for the first time since 2001 (when gold was roughly $260). But when you look at the chart, if gold were to repeat the moves seen in 2006 and 2008, when gold got down to the lower net commercial short positions, the rallies each time were a staggering 70% to 72% in gold.



http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/6/4_This_Amazing_Chart_Shows_Gold_Set_For_Massive_$1 ,000_Spike_files/KWN%20Pomboy%206%3A3.jpg





If you go back to the 2005 bottom when gold was $412 an ounce, gold subsequently rallied to $714. This translated into a 70%+ move to the upside in gold. The same thing occurred during the 2008 rally when gold went from $712 to $1,215. Again, a 70% to 72% rally.... “If we are in fact at this major bottom here around the $1,400 level, we should expect to see a roughly 70% rally in gold, which would take us to the $2,300 to $2,400 level. Those figures may shock some people because the sentiment is so bearish right now, but that’s what we are looking at in terms of a rally in the gold market.



The worst case scenario is a summer where gold grinds in a bit of a trading range, which would allow the commercials to get long the gold market for the first time since 2001. This would allow for another month or two of sideways trading while this massive bottom is being formed in gold.”



Pomboy also added: “Regardless of whether the rally commences from current levels or it takes some more sideways work, clearly the rally is going to be enormous. It could even exceed the 70% pattern rallies we have seen in gold in the past.



Clearly with the physical demand around the globe, coupled with central bank buying which is coming mainly out of Asia, any push lower is really going to be met with some more ferocious buying. So any downdraft will be short, and the rebound will be swift. But as I noted earlier, gold is going to new all-time highs and this move is going to be launched at a time when sentiment in gold is at the worst level in more than a decade.”

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/6/4_This_Amazing_Chart_Shows_Gold_Set_For_Massive_$1 ,000_Spike.html

[Spectrism]

Short term. What happens when the Euro fails and the European economy grinds to a halt? What happens when the Jap yen is pushed lower? It causes a flight to dollars. They will see the dollar as being more stable, regardless of how hollow it really is.

When the dollar goes up, commodities go down in dollar pricing. This is what can cause a short term price drop in metals.

We are in the days when you can't even count on the sunrise or the north pole being in the north. Everything will be shaken as never before in recorded history. Don't be too surprised when the opposite of what you expected actually happens.

[Spectrism]

In Larry's video yesterday, he said the bottom is so near he can taste it. He also said the first move in PMs will not be from inflation. It will be from the fall ... no... he said the "collapse of Europe". This will drive money into perceived safe havens- gold, silver, US stocks...

But he is still expecting a drop before that happens.

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("Buy Signal"
October 2000 to
"Sell Signal"
September 2011)



Royal Gold Inc.

RGLD



2,957%



Goldcorp Inc.

G



1,248%



Newcrest Mining Ltd

NCM



1,059%



Kinross Gold Corp.

K



877%



Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd

AEM



850%



IAMGOLD Corp.

IMG



750%



Gold Fields Ltd

GFI



554%



International Minerals Corp.

IMZ



541%



Newmont Mining Corp.

NEM



415%



AngloGold Ashanti Ltd

ANG



301%



Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd

HAR



288%



Barrick Gold Corp.

ABX



185%



AuRico Gold Inc.

AUQ



150%



First, make sure you have plenty of cash on hand. If you’ve been following my signals for the last two years — to stay out or refrain from buying more precious metals and to build your hoard of cash instead — please make sure that cash is ready to be deployed on a moment’s notice, as I get ready to head back into the precious metals in a very BIG way.
If for some reason you didn’t follow my signals and did not build up your cash hoard, be sure to do so immediately. The best way: Dump any bond investments you own.
Believe me, those are going down the tubes. Take as much 35% of that money and get ready to deploy it in what I believe will be the most profitable, best asset class on the planet — precious metals.
Second, make sure your brokerage account is ready to trade ETFs and leveraged ETFs in the precious metals.
In most cases, that’s not going to be a problem. You’re already set for that. Just be sure the account is funded and ready to trade metals ETFs, mining shares, and mining share ETFs. It’s all up to you and what you can afford, but my recommendation is to commit at least $25,000 to trading the next bull market in the precious metals.
Third, be psychologically ready to trade the metals from both sides of the market, long and short.
This next phase of the precious metals bull market is going to see a lot of big swings. And I plan on taking advantage of them in both directions, making money on quick trades on the long side, and also profiting from the inevitable corrections that will come.
Fourth, never forget that this is a THREE-YEAR opportunity: The same technical signals that told me this bull market was beginning in 2000 ... that allowed me to call every major turn since — including the correction that started in 2011 ...
Are now telling me that this next huge rally in gold will take three full years to unfold. You’re going to have the chance to multiply your money over and over again until 2016!

I’m already taking the next step ...
by creating a powerful new service
to help you take full advantage
of the next explosive phase
of gold’s historic bull market!




http://cdn.finance.moneyandmarkets.com/media/images/editor-photos/larry/!-Larry_105.jpg

We’re so close to a major bottom in gold, I can almost TASTE IT!
My critical “BUY” signal could come at virtually any moment!
Get on-board IMMEDIATELY or you could MISS the greatest profit opportunity IN YEARS!


The kind of explosive, three-year bull market we’re about to see in precious metals happens only once or twice in a lifetime. So I’m going far beyond just issuing a big buy signal. I’ve just created a unique new service to help you maximize your profits as gold shoots the moon!
Gold and Silver Trader is for investors looking to go for far greater profits than can be achieved in a monthly newsletter.
When gold is on a tear, it doesn’t wait for you, me or anybody else — and its movements SURE don’t conform to any pre-conceived monthly publishing schedule!
You need to be ready to move when the market does — to jump in when prices are surging ... to move to the sidelines during the inevitable short-term pullbacks ...
THAT’S how you maximize your profit potential ...
THAT’S how you minimize your risk of loss ...
THAT’S how you seize the potential to rack up huge profits, week after week!


In Gold and Silver Trader, I give you THREE ways to earn up to $3 for every ONE dollar increase in gold prices:




A Standing Ovation for Larry Edelson
“I recall that back in 2000 or 2001 you called the start of a new bull market in gold... I thought you were crazy, but you were right. Good work!”

— K., Chula Vista, CA
“I've been a member of your newsletter for many years and probably for life! You're the only professional I trust! I'm banking my entire savings on your advice!”

— D.S. Round Lake, IL
“I don’t trust anyone else on gold and gold shares. I have many years’ experience and I find you are the best.”

— R.T. Ramsey,
Isle of Man,
Great Britain




1. With ETFs that DOUBLE YOUR PROFITS when gold surges: Double-long ETFs like ProShares Ultra Gold and PowerShares DB Gold Double Long can more than DOUBLE your profits when gold prices rise:
Between April 17, 2009 and April 29, 2011, for instance, gold prices rose 79.9% ...
But these two ETFs could have handed you gains of 185.7% to 190.1% — over TWO TIMES MORE than gold bullion!

Also, between January 13, 2009 and August 22, 2011, for example, gold prices jumped 130.8% ...
But these double long ETFs could have made you between 342.6% and 427.6% richer ... again, over TWO TIMES MORE!

And between December 5, 2008 and September 6, 2011, gold prices jumped 147.9% ...
But by using these double long ETFs you could have grabbed gains of 398.5% and 427.6%.
That’s nearly THREE TIMES more money than bullion investors earned!

2. With mining shares that can outperform bullion by nearly FIVE to one: Between October 27, 2000 and September 6, 2011, for example, gold prices surged 632.5% but ...


Newcrest Mining Ltd. jumped 1,059.4% — enough to multiply your money more than ELEVEN times over ...
Goldcorp Inc. soared 1,248% — enough to multiply your money more than THIRTEEN times over and ...
Royal Gold Inc. skyrocketed 2,957.9% — enough to multiply your money more than 30 times over, generating nearly $4.68 in gains for every ONE dollar earned by bullion investors!

Granted, catching the entire move in any one of these would be rare. But even if we catch part of these kinds of moves, your profits could be huge!

3. And with INVERSE ETFs that can give you $3 for every ONE dollar gold declines during temporary pullbacks: Never forget: No market EVER moves higher in a straight line.
Temporary pullbacks are not only inevitable; they’re HEALTHY in every bull market. Not only do they give us the opportunity to add to our gold positions at lower prices, they can create substantial new profit opportunities!
Examples:
http://cdn.finance.moneyandmarkets.com/media/images/mam/img/mis/mam-square.gifBetween March 17, 2008 and October 24, 2008, gold prices fell 26.7% ...
But PowerShares DB Gold Double Short posted a 71.1% GAIN ...

http://cdn.finance.moneyandmarkets.com/media/images/mam/img/mis/mam-square.gifBetween February 20, 2009 and April 17, 2009, gold prices dropped 12.5% ...
But ProShares UltraShort Gold increased 24.6% in value and PowerShares DB Gold Double Short posting a 32.1% GAIN ...

http://cdn.finance.moneyandmarkets.com/media/images/mam/img/mis/mam-square.gifBetween December 3, 2009 and February 5, 2010, gold prices declined 11.7% ...
But ProShares UltraShort Gold increased 24.5% in value and PowerShares DB Gold Double Short (DZZ) shown a 27.6% GAIN!



My Gold and Silver Trader
gives you trading signals
so clear, a child could follow them!




“No B.S.!”
“Thanks for your no-B.S. way of communicating. You by far are the most direct speaking and results accountable [analyst] that I know. Refreshing!”

— D.L., Channahon, IL
“You have earned my respect. I have a lot of faith in your knowledge of the economy and financial markets.”

— F.W. Adkins, TX
“I'm eagerly awaiting the coming opportunities in the precious metals and commodities markets.”

— D.L., West Haven, CT



Until now, if you were looking to make money in gold and other resource investments, you could have simply subscribed to my monthly newsletter, Real Wealth Report — just like tens of thousands of investors do.
But Real Wealth Report is for investors who want an overview and recommendations on ALL tangible asset investments — not just gold or precious metals, but also oil and energy, food, basic materials and more.
That doesn’t leave me enough room to cover gold as comprehensively as I need to in order to help you maximize your profits — especially in this dynamic new phase of the bull market.
More importantly, because Real Wealth Report is published just once per month, it must focus on LONG-term precious metals investments.
So I created my Gold and Silver Trader for investors who want to take the next step with me: To harness the FULL potential of this great bull market with investments that require more frequent trading.
In this explosive three-year-long phase of the historic bull market in precious metals, you’re going to need quick reflexes. Investments capable of multiplying your money up to 29 times over never wait for you, me or anybody else.
In fact, we’re so close to a major bottom in gold, I can almost TASTE IT.
My critical “BUY” signal could come at virtually any moment!
You need to be ready, willing and able to act quickly to maximize your profit potential and minimize your risk of loss.




More Applause for Larry Edelson
“With Larry's advice I feel confident and well positioned to profit from these unprecedented times.”

— D.B., Stockton-on-Tees, Great Britain
“I follow your advice because I trust you.
“I'm currently cash heavy waiting for your signal to ‘load up the wagon.’”

— G.B. Manhattan Beach, CA



And now, with Gold and Silver Trader, I can be at your side every step of the way.
My recommendation: Get on-board IMMEDIATELY or you could MISS the greatest profit opportunity IN YEARS!
Each time I spot an opportunity to buy low — or sell high — I’ll instantly dispatch an easy-to-follow “buy” and “sell” signal to your cell phone, mobile device and email inbox.
No matter where you are in the world or what you’re doing, you never have to miss a single one of my Trading Alerts!
And this is important: Bullion, mining shares and precious metals ETFs can be extremely volatile at times. They can explode higher or pull back quickly.
That’s why in Gold and Silver Trader, I’ll never ask you to take a position I wouldn’t take with my own money.
I’ll never ask you to go into a trade without a safety net — stop losses designed to help protect you against the unexpected.
You have my word: I’m a stickler for careful risk management — no one can guarantee against losses, and I am no exception, but I will try my hardest to help make sure each and every one of my recommendations is as low-risk as possible when compared to their upside profit potential.

More than gold:
Silver, platinum and palladium TOO!
If you know anything about the gold market, you know that the yellow metal almost never rises in a vacuum.
More often than not, it pulls other important metals up along with it!
Look: Between October of 2000 and September of 2011, gold prices surged 632.5% ...
But during that same time, silver prices soared 823.5%.
Impressed? Better hang onto your hat!
While these metals surged, the stock of companies that produced them did even better — with gains 1,120% ... 1,785% ... up to 2,528%!




Silver, Platinum or Palladium
Mining Company



Gain
Trough to Peak



Hecla Mining Co.



2,528.0%



Gold Reserve Inc.



2,465.8%



Freeport-McMoran



1,785.0%



Stillwater Mining



1,371.6%



Coeur Mining Inc.



1,120.6%



Newmont Mining



458.8%



Will we catch 100% of every move? No. But that’s OK: With gains this huge, catching even part of these moves could make you much, much richer.
And the great news is, your membership in my Gold and Silver Trader gets you my unhedged “buy” and “sell” signals not just on gold — but on silver, platinum AND palladium — and also the stock of companies that produce them the instant I release them.

And still there’s more:
My Gold and Silver Trader ALSO gives you
the ultimate BULLION trading strategy!
In volatile times like these, prudence and common sense dictate that you go beyond paper investments like stocks and ETFs ...
And maintain a solid core position of precious metals for protection against economic uncertainty ...




http://cdn.finance.moneyandmarkets.com/media/images/editor-photos/larry/!!_Larry-Final_042.jpg

“FACT: Between October 27, 2000 and April 17, 2008 alone, silver giant Hecla Mining stock could have handed you a staggering 2,528% gain.
“That’s enough to turn $10,000 into $352,800 ... and $30,000 into more than $1 MILLION!”


My Gold and Silver Trader makes it easy — by giving you an extra special benefit.
In addition to the rapid-fire trading to maximize your profits in the next major phase of the gold bull market, I also give you specific instructions on how to allocate your bullion portfolio — including gold, silver and bullion, plus a free membership in our unique bullion trading platform.
You get the same “buy” and “sell” signals that could have allowed you to successfully trade every major rally and pullback in the bullion market since 2000 ...
WITHOUT any of the challenges that other precious metals investors struggle with.
In fact, you get FIVE MASSIVE ADVANTAGES over other bullion investors:
Advantage #1: You do business ONLY with one of the world’s highest-quality dealers! Do a Google search for “gold bullion for sale” and you’ll find more than 3.2 million pages vying for your attention — and for your investment dollars.
So how do YOU separate the sheep from the goats?
How can you separate the companies that offer outstanding products and superlative service at world-beating prices ...
From those that are little more than fly-by-night rip-off artists with obscene mark-ups and lousy service ...
How can you make sure you’re getting a great deal every time you add to your precious metals portfolio?
With your membership in Gold and Silver Trader, you never have to worry about that again: You ONLY do business with one of the world’s most reputable firms!
Advantage #2: You BUY your bullion at competitive prices! Whenever you’re ready to buy gold, silver, platinum or palladium, just jump over to the membership website and order right online!
You are always guaranteed competitive prices for every ounce of bullion you buy: No more worrying that you may have paid too much!
Advantage #3: You get the ultimate way to HOLD your bullion. You can have your bullion shipped to you within two business days at any time ...
Or, you can have it securely stored in fully insured vaults operated by the world's most trusted vaulting firms and audited regularly by a Big Four accounting firm.
You could choose to have it stored in the U.S. if you prefer ...
Or for maximum privacy and security, you can hold your bullion offshore; in Zurich, London, Melbourne or Singapore.
Plus, this service is the soul of convenience for you: You can buy or sell and dictate how you’ll hold your precious metals — in seconds; ALL ONLINE!
Advantage #4: You get the easiest, most effective way to SELL your bullion. It’s the same challenge you face when buying bullion, only in reverse: When you’re selling, you need a dealer you can trust and who’ll pay you top dollar.
And here again, I have the solution for you — you deal ONLY with a dealer that offers you competitive prices for your bullion!
Advantage #5: My Gold and Silver Trader gives you specific allocation alerts — instructions on exactly how much of your bullion portfolio to put in each major metal, and how to change those allocations as needed.
Others have paid $147 per year for this service alone — but it’s yours, FREE as part of your membership in Gold and Silver Trader!
In short, you get ...

Everything you need to maximize your profit potential
— and minimize your risk of loss —
as this great bull market resumes!




“You are my
guiding light!”
“In retrospect, I found your insights to be amazingly accurate! This sadly leaves me wishing I had HEEDED your advice (which I didn't do, to the detriment of my portfolio). You are now my primary guiding light!!!”

— G.S., Ridley Park, PA



In addition to the easy-to-follow trading bulletins that you’ll receive instantly whenever I issue a “buy” or “sell” signal for any of the investments I cover in Gold and Silver Trader ...
You also get a complete suite of services I personally designed to help you make the most of this once-in-a-lifetime profit opportunity:


You will be one of the first to get my major “BUY” signal the minute it’s issued ...
You get my weekly updates on gold, silver, platinum and palladium — complete with the fundamental and technical analysis designed to help you maximize your profit potential while minimizing your risk of loss.
You get regular online briefings — my opportunity to give you my Big Picture analysis of the markets; where we’ve been, where we’re going — and also your opportunity to ask me anything you like about our strategy and the positions we’re holding.
You get 24/7 access to the Gold and Silver Trader website — your new home on the web, complete with real-time prices for gold, silver, platinum palladium and copper ... AND ALSO a complete summary of all of our open and closed trades.
You get full and free access to me PERSONALLY through our “Editor’s Mailbag” — for prompt answers to any questions you have about my forecasts, strategies and positions: You’ll never have to wonder where I stand or what you should be doing next.


ONE-TIME-ONLY OFFER:
Join before next Tuesday, June 11,
get THREE years for the price of ONE
and SAVE $4,994!After Tuesday, we can’t guarantee
we’ll ever offer this deal again!
Please remember: The very same timing tools that told me gold was about to explode back in 2000 — before it soared 632.5% ...




“Helped me
pay the bills!”
“I've followed you for years and years. Your guidance helped me pay bills while interest rates have been suffocated.”

— P.R. Hillsborough, NC



The exact same indicators that warned me about the two-year-long pullback in gold and silver we’ve just experienced ...
The same technical analysis that has allowed me to call every major turn in the gold market for 13 long years ...
Are now telling me that this new phase of this great bull market is going to generate profits for THREE YEARS!
In fact, I’m so confident that the next leg of this bull market will be with us for 36 months — and feel it’s absolutely critical that you take full advantage of the profit potential this great rally will offer — I’m building Gold and Silver Trader around that conviction ...
By giving you THREE FULL YEARS of Gold and Silver Trader for the price of ONE!
Normally, Gold and Silver Trader is $2,497 per year — at that rate, three years is $7,491.
But if you join me now — before next Tuesday, June 11, you can get every “buy” signal ... every “sell” signal ... every issue and every shred of news analysis and recommendation ... for a full 36 months ...
For the normal ONE year rate of just $2,497.
That’s a massive $4,994 savings off of the regular $7,491 rate for three years: $2.28 per day for investment recos designed to multiply your money as this great bull market resumes!
Or if you prefer, you can join for one year at a substantial discount off the normal one-year rate: Just $1,497. You save $1,000.
And joining could not be easier: Simply click the appropriate link below:
You get 36 months (3 years) of Gold and Silver Trader for just $2,497; just $2.28 per day.
You get 12 months (1 year) of Gold and Silver Trader for just $1,497; $4.10 per day.


Or, join by phone by calling
TOLL-FREE 1-800-393-0189.
(Overseas, call 1-561-627-3300)
And there’s more:

Gold and Silver Trader
WILL multiply your money
— or your cost is ZERO




“COMFORTING!”
“Your very balanced and unbiased views convince thoroughly. It is refreshing and comforting to know that you are on the side of the little guy.”

— G.S. Jan Jose, CA



Just click the appropriate button below to activate your membership at the lowest price we will ever charge.
No one can guarantee profits, but I can guarantee that you must agree that your membership in Gold and Silver Trader is one of the best investments you have ever made.
Otherwise, just let me know during your first 60 days on-board and I will make sure you receive a full 100% refund of every penny you paid; no questions asked, no hard feelings.
Plus, in the unlikely event that you cancel later on, you’ll still receive a refund on the unused portion of your membership.

There’s more ...
By joining me now, you’re LOCKING IN this heavily discounted rate for as long as you’re a member:
Whenever your membership comes up for renewal, we will notify you first, then charge your credit card at this same low rate. That way, you’ll never pay for anything you don’t want and you’ll never have to miss a single recommendation.



Or, join by phone by calling
TOLL-FREE 1-800-393-0189

[EE_]

Email from the US Money Reserve...who ever the fk they are?

THE GOLD NEWS DESK:
Could Gold Spike $1,000/oz. in the Coming Days?

Expert believes net commercials in gold signal market bottom
In an interview with Eric King of King World News, Eric Pomboy of Meridian Macro Research expressed his belief that gold could be headed for a major price spike.

Citing the precedents of market bottoms in 2005 and again in 2008 in which the price of gold shot up 70% both times, Pomboy believes a $1,000/oz. jump in the price of gold could be around the corner.

"If we are in fact at this major bottom here around the $1,400 level, we should expect to see a roughly 70% rally in gold, which would take us to the $2,300 to $2,400 level," he said in the interview.

Gold may trade in a sideways range at the $1,400 level for the time being, but consulting a chart that matches up time with commercial positions in gold shows a direct correlation between the bloated number of contracts and the low spot price — the same as when the market exploded in 2005 and 2008.

"Regardless of whether the rally commences from current levels or it takes some more sideways work, clearly the rally is going to be enormous. It could even exceed the 70% pattern rallies we have seen in gold in the past."

What this means for you: Indicators like this should not be ignored in a time when gold's price presents a good buying opportunity. While past performance of the market does not dictate the future, there appear to be very real fundamentals at work here much the same as in the last couple times the market made a major move.

[gunDriller]

> A 750.1% gain in IAMGOLD Corp. — enough to turn every $1,000 invested into more than $85,000!

depending on how the math were done, that would turn $1000 into $7501, or $8501. not $85K.

[Spectrism]

> A 750.1% gain in IAMGOLD Corp. — enough to turn every $1,000 invested into more than $85,000!

depending on how the math were done, that would turn $1000 into $7501, or $8501. not $85K.

A 100% gain means doubling your money.
750% gain means 7.5 times your money plus the initial investment back.

[Neuro]

Here is another "Typo":


“FACT: Between October 27, 2000 and April 17, 2008 alone, silver giant Hecla Mining stock could have handed you a staggering 2,528% gain.
“That’s enough to turn $10,000 into $352,800 ... and $30,000 into more than $1 MILLION!”
It would turn $10,000 into $262,800 and $30,000 into significantly less than $1 million! But idiots that are willing to pay MORE than an ounce of gold to get your hyped bs for a year, probably can't count anyway!

[Spectrism]

Here is another "Typo":


It would turn $10,000 into $262,800 and $30,000 into significantly less than $1 million! But idiots that are willing to pay MORE than an ounce of gold to get your hyped bs for a year, probably can't count anyway!

Nice! LOL... what's a couple hundred thousand dollars among friends?

[Spectrism]

The push up yesterday almost made it, but failed to break out. It looks like we did get a breakout to the low side today.... and strongly. The highest hourly volume breaks just under 22. If this closes down today, it could be the start of the last down leg.

4979

[Ponce]

My blood pressure doesn't go up and down about buying or holding or traidng or whatever......I simply sit on what I have and smile while looking at the atns running aroune like if there is a fire under their asses.

Will the government try to take your PM away from you?....YES...... first they will stop the selling of PM in the open market, they then will keep an eye on those who buy......they then will tell you "Help us save our nation (bankers) turn in your PM for X ammount.".........................the power to be now knows that they no longer can fool the people and that PM is the only real M'Coy that cannot be falsified..........the next world wide currency will use PM as the standard................many excuses and reasons will be given for you to turn in your PM so that everyone will be the same.....POOR.

V

[gunDriller]

If this closes down today, it could be the start of the last down leg.

that's what i'm thinking.

if it repeats the April 12/ April 15 pattern, today's lows get re-tested on Monday.

[Sparky]

I'm thinking this too. A bottoming of $1250-$1300 is still completely viable without violating the long term technical structure of the gold price. I believe this is the range that Jim Rogers said he would await before doing more buying, and some other fund-savvy commentators have identified the same range. This might be what the big money is waiting for. And historically, the first week of July has tended to be a preferred time for seasonal bottoming. So, let's expect that there's one more final washout to shake out the last of the weak hands, which is mostly non-GSUS paper holders.

I'm also becoming more convinced that the next upleg is the grand finale to this long generational gold bull cycle, and will take 2-3 years to play out, ending in a typical speculative asset bubble top. Your children and grandchildren will probably be able to buy gold at $1000 in 2035.

[Spectrism]

If this world has another 10 years in it, there won't be any dollars but there will be gold.

[Spectrism]

Here is another "Typo":


It would turn $10,000 into $262,800 and $30,000 into significantly less than $1 million! But idiots that are willing to pay MORE than an ounce of gold to get your hyped bs for a year, probably can't count anyway!

Unless.... this counts dividends too. A stock may increase $10, but you can gain more than the $10 if you are paid nice dividends while you hold it.

[gunDriller]

seeing the thread title, i can't help but think that it's the US $ that has not yet bottomed.

[Spectrism]

This is why people use technical analysis. Look at the suspicious march up to the line and then flips around to go back down.

5008

And now as I enter this post, I see that the price is breaking the bottom limit.... now at 21.55. We shall see if it breaks down/thru again.

[chad]

i bought ten apmex 10 ounce bars about 20 minutes ago. trust me, silver will go lower now.

[Spectrism]

i bought ten apmex 10 ounce bars about 20 minutes ago. trust me, silver will go lower now.

Wow... 100toz? That is a nice chunk of metal.

And, yes.... I think it will go down a bit more. The up side potential is tremendous though. If we can get through the end of June with these prices, some physical may be had cheaper. The problem is - the game may be over before then. Once the reality sets in, today's prices could seem super cheap.

[chad]

Wow... 100toz? That is a nice chunk of metal.

And, yes.... I think it will go down a bit more. The up side potential is tremendous though. If we can get through the end of June with these prices, some physical may be had cheaper. The problem is - the game may be over before then. Once the reality sets in, today's prices could seem super cheap.

i figured i better buy it now. i haven't been able to find any locally for weeks. it's gone as soon as it comes in.

[gunDriller]

i figured i better buy it now. i haven't been able to find any locally for weeks. it's gone as soon as it comes in.

are you going to get Boating Accident Insurance ? :)

[chad]

are you going to get Boating Accident Insurance ? :)

i'm uninsurable :( too many previous claims :(

[ximmy]

i bought ten apmex 10 ounce bars about 20 minutes ago. trust me, silver will go lower now.

I have engelhard 10's :D :p \uu\

[ximmy]

For Chad... I've posted this or one like it before. ;D Before they got lost at sea... {0}

5010

[chad]

I have engelhard 10's :D :p \uu\

damn you to hell woman!!!!!!!

[Spectrism]

Big spike up in PMs this morning could be an indicator of where it is going. It would be just like the bastards to crank the price up before delivery lock in prices (I think the third from last business day of the month) so that they will have their contracts covered (short positions covered) and they can keep physical pricing from coming down to fake paper range.

5011

[gunDriller]

For Chad... I've posted this or one like it before. ;D Before they got lost at sea... {0}

5010

so sorry to hear about your loss.

[Spectrism]

Major action in all the markets. This is because of the fear of monetary policy.

1. Hints that QE is done... or to be cut back. This means reduced Treasury buying from the Fed. This makes the treasury market susceptible to the true market... at least a little. And- it will drive interest rates up. I think this is a very temporary knee-jerk reaction as other means of dollar devaluing (wealth stealing) will be used.

2. The Bernank is retiring from the Fed in Jan 2014. This signals the end of helicopter Ben's promise to combat bad times with money from heaven.

Get ready. I think this is the last leg down. Look for bargains. We have firmly broken through $20 for silver. We have almost hit some climbing support levels- my guess is $19.20- $19.32 is a low. I suspect thing will move quickly now. My hope is that prices (paper) stay here and lower for a couple weeks so that physical can catch down. Last time I checked, the bastards-in-charge aren't seeking my approval.

[mamboni]

Major action in all the markets. This is because of the fear of monetary policy.

1. Hints that QE is done... or to be cut back. This means reduced Treasury buying from the Fed. This makes the treasury market susceptible to the true market... at least a little. And- it will drive interest rates up. I think this is a very temporary knee-jerk reaction as other means of dollar devaluing (wealth stealing) will be used.

2. The Bernank is retiring from the Fed in Jan 2014. This signals the end of helicopter Ben's promise to combat bad times with money from heaven.

Get ready. I think this is the last leg down. Look for bargains. We have firmly broken through $20 for silver. We have almost hit some climbing support levels- my guess is $19.20- $19.32 is a low. I suspect thing will move quickly now. My hope is that prices (paper) stay here and lower for a couple weeks so that physical can catch down. Last time I checked, the bastards-in-charge aren't seeking my approval.

The bond markets looks incredibly unstable as the vigilantes are frontrunning the FED on the "taper." Watch the JGB - the bottom could fall out unless Abe is very aggressive in monetizing and staying in front of the selling. If Bernanke truly tapered, interest rates would tick and the RE markets and stocks would implode in short order. And there is the massive interest rate derivative market: leveraged derivatives used to suppress interest rates and prop up the banks. If the 10 year climbs above 3% then run for cover - financial armageddon. The manipulators have been suppressing volatility to similate stability. Now all the energy is stored in the system ready to be unleased like a compressed spring being released. My point with all this is that we are in no man's land here in the markets. The US dollar is strong because it is the last refuge of percieved stability in a world gone mad where valuation has gone full retard thanks to Bernanke and the manipulators. But we all know of the horrible long term fundamentals of the dollar. This is why you must hold gold and silver as portfolio insurance. In the long run, they will hold purchasing power and find a stable value. But in the short run, the US dollar is still the fin al arbiter of all things financial - for now.

[Spectrism]

Yeup- uncharted waters. Things will depend on more than just market conditions like supply & demand. Monetary policy and outright underworld manipulations with their unknown timing will make this a bucking bronco ride.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_HPZsTnm0-kg/SROZaNw45LI/AAAAAAAABA0/pNe7cipxUyQ/s400/bucking_bronco.gif

[gunDriller]

DAMN ! i just got my place cleaned up so i could have an appraiser in to do a re-fi.

no need for it now.

i wonder if interest rates will be going down again in the Fed's Alice in Wonderland world.


oh well, at least my place is clean. or clean-er. :)

[mamboni]

Yeup- uncharted waters. Things will depend on more than just market conditions like supply & demand. Monetary policy and outright underworld manipulations with their unknown timing will make this a bucking bronco ride.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_HPZsTnm0-kg/SROZaNw45LI/AAAAAAAABA0/pNe7cipxUyQ/s400/bucking_bronco.gif

Consider this playing out as deflationary collapse. Imagine a world with a very strong dollar, a 2003 dollar. Except the governments have taken on enormous debt principals. And tax receipts and employment are declining so receipts comprise only 50% of government spending. And consider all the unfunded liabilities of the government, over $200 trillions by some calculations. Consider the government deficits of $trillion for years. And all this with rising interest rates such that debt service literally consumes the entire budgets of nations. If this comes to pass, then there will also be massive defaults and debt liquidations. That means public pensions will be cut and social programs will be gutted. And there will be bank bailins and siezures of deposits - for sure. If you have cash in the bank, it will likely be encumbered and possible taken. This is what a deflationary collapse looks like. Ironically, gold, despite the falling dollar price, does very well in a deflation and arguably better than an inflation. It's about liquidity and purchasing power in a deflation, not price. So, hold your gold (and silver) and understand that this is why they are financial insurance: you can't predict the future. And $1200 gold could very well be more valuable than $1700 gold a couple of years ago. One more wrinkle vis-a-vis the earlier points: historicaly, governments cannot tolerate deflation as it makes their debt impossible to manage. They invariable print like mad to fight the deflation and overshoot into high inflation and possibly hyperinflation. So hold on. We are in for the ride of our lives.

[Spectrism]

One more wrinkle vis-a-vis the earlier points: historicaly, governments cannot tolerate deflation as it makes their debt impossible to manage. They invariable print like mad to fight the deflation and overshoot into high inflation and possibly hyperinflation. So hold on. We are in for the ride of our lives.

Unless.... they want to crash the system to unbearable conditions so that people cry out for the new world order savior. The new money system will be ushered in by a crash of the old. We will need to see horrendous events of chaos from which they will bring their "order".

So... it is possible for metals to drop to unimaginable prices as people fight to survive moment by moment. Unless you have the game-plan of the controllers, it is pretty hard to figure what, when & how.... but mostly the when. The sequence of the take-down is also critical.

[mamboni]

Have you noticed that things have gotten so bizarro that writing good satire has become well nigh impossible. LOL.
To wit:

Financial Sector Thinks It’s About Ready To Ruin World Again
Jun 18, 2013

NEW YORK—Claiming that enough time had surely passed since they last caused a global economic meltdown, top executives from the U.S. financial sector told reporters Monday that they are just about ready to completely destroy the world again.

Representatives from all major banking and investment institutions cited recent increases in consumer spending, rebounding home prices, and a stabilizing unemployment rate as confirmation that the time had once again come to inflict another round of catastrophic financial losses on individuals and businesses worldwide.

“It’s been about five or six years since we last crippled every major market on the planet, so it seems like the time is right for us to get back out there and start ruining the lives of billions of people again,” said Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein. “We gave it some time and let everyone get a little comfortable, and now we’re looking to get back on the old horse, shatter some consumer confidence, and flat-out kill any optimism for a stable global economy for years to come.”

“People are beginning to feel at ease spending money and investing in their futures again,” Blankfein continued. “That’s the perfect time to step in and do what we do best: rip the heart right out of the world’s economy.”

According to sources, the overwhelming majority of investment bankers are “ready to get the ball rolling” by approving a host of complex and poorly understood debt-backed securities that are doomed to quickly default, as well as issuing startlingly high-risk loans certain to drive thousands of companies into insolvency.

More… (http://www.theonion.com/articles/financial-sector-thinks-its-about-ready-to-ruin-wo,32865/)

[EE_]

http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3494/3302873316_04f29dfedd_z.jpg?zz=1

[mamboni]

http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3494/3302873316_04f29dfedd_z.jpg?zz=1

Black cloud doesn't even begin to describe it. This is a giant asteroid the size of Madagascar hurling towards the earth, metaphorically speaking of course.

[Horn]

What's everyone so worried about?

That Chinese guy in mamboni's avatar is coming to save us.

http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/mediafile/201008/18/P201008181648301958413280.jpg

God help us.

[osoab]

Black cloud doesn't even begin to describe it. This is a giant asteroid the size of Madagascar hurling towards the earth, metaphorically speaking of course.

Cheer Up! It's a blue light special doc. He who holds the gold makes the rules.

[Serpo]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=AQ7d0RSqFdY#at=272 http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=AQ7d0RSqFdY#at=272

[Horn]

He who holds the gold makes the rules.

Apparently that also takes a 51% market share.

[Gold Rules]

Cheer Up! It's a blue light special doc. He who holds the gold makes the rules.


Oui vey

except where a jewish paper manipulation is concerned ( ie......a fed pump & dump )



J6p has no clue

[Glass]

I sold at $1500/oz earlier in the week. Been paid but I haven't delivered yet. I am wondering if there will be a request to re-negotiate being that we are about 6% from those $$s. Price will recover but how long? And you need to take into account the ForEx fluctuations as a 10c drop on AUD/USD keeps AUD gold prices fairly stable..... as I have had pointed out to me, although gold is quoted USD it is actually priced in AUD. or AUD Gold $$ is less volatile, usually.

[Spectrism]

Major action in all the markets. This is because of the fear of monetary policy.

1. Hints that QE is done... or to be cut back. This means reduced Treasury buying from the Fed. This makes the treasury market susceptible to the true market... at least a little. And- it will drive interest rates up. I think this is a very temporary knee-jerk reaction as other means of dollar devaluing (wealth stealing) will be used.

2. The Bernank is retiring from the Fed in Jan 2014. This signals the end of helicopter Ben's promise to combat bad times with money from heaven.

Get ready. I think this is the last leg down. Look for bargains. We have firmly broken through $20 for silver. We have almost hit some climbing support levels- my guess is $19.20- $19.32 is a low. I suspect thing will move quickly now. My hope is that prices (paper) stay here and lower for a couple weeks so that physical can catch down. Last time I checked, the bastards-in-charge aren't seeking my approval.

So it touched this last night. Watch to see if it breaks thru the long term low trend- dashed blue line. If we enter the full blown deflationary depression (or if we unmask what is already here) we could see silver down to $12. Keep powder dry.
5044

Here is a longer term picture-

5045

[Spectrism]

Looks like it is ready to drop further as the markets are responding with kneejerk flights to cash. I don't get the sense we are at bottom yet. Hold your cash.

Silver now at $19.55
Gold at $1284.

[Ponce]

How are they doing this to PM?......by printing more paper?

V

[Sparky]

How are they doing this to PM?......by printing more paper?

V
They don't even need to print more paper. They just need to promise to sell paper that they don't yet hold for a lower price. That's what makes it so easy to push the price down.

P.S. But they also need to uphold their promises in order to keep the paper game afloat. So at some point their promises will reverse to the long side, and force the price back up.

[Spectrism]

How are they doing this to PM?......by printing more paper?
V

No- just the opposite. They said they would cut off the easy paper. All the drunks at the party are told the bar is closing so they are running to the next open joint down the street to get a place at the bar.

Also, there is fear that leveraged positions will demand collateral so people will sell assets to cover positions. It could be a rush of panicked people who trust only their dollars.

[Spectrism]

Most Investors Are About to Learn This Lesson the Hard Way

Larry Edelson | Monday, June 24, 2013 at 7:30 am





http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/2744/LarryEdelson.jpg


Millions of investors are soon going to learn about the financial markets the hard way — through giant losses.
Why? Because they’re confusing normal times with abnormal times.
Let me explain. In normal times, rapidly rising interest rates and Fed credit tightening would typically be bearish for commodities and stocks.
But these aren’t normal times. We’re coming out of a period with the lowest interest rates in the history of the country. A period that was fraught with financial failures, even the near-total collapse of the monetary system. And a period when the Fed deliberately kept interest rates at record lows.
Thing is, most investors aren’t making the appropriate distinction. They’re reacting in a knee-jerk fashion to the recent rise in interest rates. So they’re dumping gold and other commodities, and unloading stocks as if a giant bear is back on the scene.
But based on all of my research and long-term indicators, I’ve concluded that those same investors are going to be very sorry.
Why? Because this rise in interest rates, occurring during abnormal times, is going to have precisely the opposite effect. Instead of being bearish, it’s going to be resoundingly bullish for a lot of markets.
Simple logic explains why.


http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/2744/image1.jpg


A rise in interest rates, occurring in abnormal times such as we have now, will be bullish for a lot of markets.


First, rates were at record lows because almost nobody wanted to borrow. The demand for credit simply wasn’t there.
So as rates and the cost of money and credit rises, guess what happens? Demand goes up too. Potential homeowners and businesses will want to suddenly borrow again before interest rates go any higher. And that, in turn, will stoke all sorts of demand, from housing, to commodities, juicing corporate earnings and the stock market.
Second, interest rates are way below the true rate of inflation, which is running north of about 8%. In other words, we would need rates to move higher than the true rate of inflation ― higher than 8% ― to negatively impact any markets. Until that point comes, if at all, rising interest rates will actually become fuel for higher prices, once the knee-jerk selling has passed.
Third, there will come a time in the not-too-distant future when our foreign creditors start to sell U.S. sovereign debt as they lose confidence in our government’s ability to manage its affairs.
The resulting rise in interest rates will be very bullish for most markets, as money leaves the bond market in droves and seeks out alternative investments for appreciation and safety.
So you see, right now millions of investors are selling everything from gold to stocks because they think we’re in normal times, or approaching normal times.
But these are abnormal times. So you simply can’t apply the old rules.
You have to think out of the box, or you’re going to get buried in the box with a whole lot of losses and missed opportunities. And that’s not what I want for you.
Instead, I believe what’s going on now in the markets is a huge gift for savvy investors. For the following reasons:


It’s helping gold slide into what should prove to be a major low. Ditto for silver. .
It’s helping the dollar rally. A rally that will, in turn, be aided by Europe’s coming demise. That, in turn, will eventually lead to a huge opportunity to short the dollar, because, ultimately, its long-term bear market will resume, offering you enormous profit opportunities.
It will eventually drive huge amounts of money into gold. Other commodities as well.

Right now, though, the selling can continue. So don’t be afraid to make hay with it in the short-term.
For instance, if you’ve followed my suggestions in this column, then you’re short stocks via the ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500 (SPXU) and you’re long the dollar via the PowerShares DB US Dollar Bull (UUP). Hold those positions.
As to gold and silver, I’m loving that they are falling now. Why? Because the declines are setting up one of the greatest buying opportunities of all time.
Best wishes,
Larry

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/most-investors-are-about-to-learn-this-lesson-the-hard-way-52038

[Neuro]

Interesting pow from Larry Edelson. He is probably correct in his analysis. I doubt that the Fed will cut off very much of the money spigot to the government at this stage. The raise in interest rate will be managed. Government will over time get an increase in interest rate, but most of it will go to Federal Reserve Bank, which pays the surplus back to the treasury...

[Spectrism]

We are getting close. This was in an email.... but I am sure you can find this on the Weiss website too.... like the others above.

==================================================




Gold and Silver:
Urgent Steps to Take Right Now



by Larry Edelson



Gold keeps crashing. Ditto for silver. So the question is: Are we near a bottom yet?
I can't tell you precisely what the low will be.
No one can. All I can tell you is that ...
1. Timing-wise, we are very close to what could be the final low for precious metals in their two-year long interim bear market.
2. Price-wise, we are also very close. As I've told you before, long-term support levels come into play at the $1,170 to $1,200 area in gold.

In silver, the long-term support levels are scaled in from $17.70 down to $16.33. Silver's now lagging just behind gold, but it's almost there now too.


http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/2749/image1.jpg



Gold prices should soon bounce higher again.



So yes, a bottom is almost here.
I say almost, because in any market, extreme movements are often the most difficult to predict. There's a chance, for instance, that gold could fall to as low as $1,110, or even $1,060. Silver to as low as $14.
I don't think we'll see them get that low, but if we do, so much the better.
And if we don't, that's fine too. We are so close to a bottom that I can literally taste the final lows, not to mention the huge profit opportunities that lie ahead.
That said, right now, there are several steps I believe you must implement, immediately:
1. If you followed my suggestions to buy inverse ETFs on gold and silver and have not yet taken your profits, bag them now.
2. Don't start loading up on mining shares. They most likely have not bottomed. Plus, as the stock market pulls back, mining shares will remain under pressure even if gold and silver start to rally again.
3. Build up your cash for buying precious metals for the long-term. Everyone should own some gold as insurance against the upcoming collapse of the global monetary system, which I believe will occur within the next three years. So will the governments of Europe, Japan, and the United States.
You simply must have the insurance that gold can offer you when that happens. The price of gold is bound to soar to over $5,000 an ounce.

4. Be ready to speculate in the precious metals markets with your risk capital. More money could be made in the precious metals markets in the next few years than in the last 11.
5. Make sure you attend my complimentary series of online conferences on gold. They are 100 percent free. They are educational. You will learn precisely why gold and silver should soar again and you could be light years ahead of other investors.


Q: Larry, gold and silver have been hit so hard, will they ever be able to get off the mat again?
A: Think of the markets like a trampoline. Not a mat. The higher the energy level and downward force during corrections, the higher the bounce.
Here are two major examples to drive my point home:

First, consider the stock market crashes of 1987 and 2008/2009.
In 1987, the crash in the Dow was the worst ever, yet it hit new highs by the end of 1989. The collapse in 2008/09 gave stocks enough energy to bounce back to the upside and ultimately hit record new highs.
Second, consider gold during its 2008 crash. The same thing happened. Gold crashed from over $1,000 down to roughly $650, and then bounced higher all the way to $1,920.
So don't worry about the metals getting off the mat. They're soon going to bounce off the trampoline higher again.
Q: Don't you think the world should go back to a gold standard?
A: Absolutely not. First, the gold standard is inherently deflationary. Deflation is the worse of two evils, inflation being the other side of the coin.
Second, the gold standard did nothing to prevent boom and bust cycles. Even under the gold standard there were bubbles and imploding bubbles. There were bank failures, recessions and depressions, and periods of high inflation.
So no, I am not in the camp that believes the world needs a gold standard. A new monetary system with much less dependence upon debt as well as some type of single-world currency for trade purposes, yes. But a gold standard, no.


Q: When are the manipulators, the Fed and the big Wall Street banks, going to stop shorting gold and silver?
A: In my opinion, that's all hogwash. No one can manipulate a market to such an extent as we've seen in gold and silver. Gold and silver are simply in an intermediate-term downtrend.
Those who keep conjuring up manipulation stories are those who simply cannot accept the fact that gold and silver were due for a severe correction.
As for those who have been shorting the metals, be thankful for them. They will be the ones providing the fuel to put a bottom in place and send the metals higher again. Why? Because they have to cover their shorts.
Q: Don't you think the paper gold and silver markets are destroying the physical markets?
A: This is more nonsense spread by those who simply want to sell you gold or silver to earn a fat commission while not giving one hoot about your financial well-being and the right time and price to buy.
If it were true, that the paper market was negatively impacting the physical market, the price of physical gold and silver would not be following the paper market lockstep (or vice versa). With minor variations due to interest rates and volatility, the two markets parallel each other.
Q: Once gold bottoms, what is its next move?
A: We should soon see a strong rally back to the point of the sharp breakdown. Back up to the $1,550 to $1,600 level. Then once that is taken out, we'll be on solid ground for new record highs in the months and years ahead.
Stay tuned and best wishes,
Larry

[Spectrism]

I hope some of you kept some powder dry. Next stop for silver? My guess is $17. If it breaks there, the next place I could see it stop is $16.

If we get under that, then there is something seriously wrong in the world. But, then... we know... there is something seriously wrong in the world.

Current silver price: $18.68 and falling this July 5th.

[gunDriller]

Current silver price: $18.68 and falling this July 5th.

as far as Ag today, i was waiting to see if they did another smash. will they settle for $18.80 or try and get it down to $18 / $18.30 ?


>> Second, interest rates are way below the true rate of inflation, which is running north of about 8%.

nice to see someone being semi-honest about inflation.

i did the calculation for 50 pound bags of birdseed (millet + corn + wheat + sunflower seeds.)

went from $10 to $15 in the last 2 1/2 years.

that's 17.5% annual inflation.

whenever i do a test calculation on some product i am familiar with, i don't get single digit inflation.

except with specialty items like computers (Moore's Law - supposedly), and PM's (very highly manipulated.)



so they say unemployment is falling ?

and i got a dick the size of a prize winning cucumber.

[Hatha Sunahara]

They are shaking out the weak minded holders of PMs. Buying metals at pennies on the dollar. It'll be over when the supply dries up because nobody is selling the physical, or if the dollar crashes first.



Hatha

[Libertarian_Guard]

The price could be held at these levels for a long time, 12 - 18 months perhaps. And that would be fine with me, as I am a buyer. But I don't see them moving much lower. I'll call this a bottom, any lower would be icing on the cake and I'll take it.

[gunDriller]

it raises the question of -

How much $$ do you want to invest in fundamentals, recognizing the dangers of counterparty risk, etc. ?

vs. - How much $$ do you want to invest in momentum-chasing ?

i think most of us tend to pay attention to fundamentals.

but i think if your goal is to maximize $, it is helpful to pay attention to what's going on with 'market momentum'.

of course, it's hard to miss, since it tends to be the kind of stuff the MSM talks about.


it seems like the Cartel is backing off their raids. the market typically recovers later in the day, bouncing off of lows.

when the Cartel was doing their thing, a few times the last few months, the price was pushed down towards the end of a Friday to near a day's low.

today, instead of pushing the price down to $18.70, down from the $18.80 where it plateau'ed for a few hours, they are letting it creep up to the $18.85/ $18.90 range.

it is a different style of raid. i wonder if this means they are giving up on the super-aggressive raids, and are going back to the more common "Single Waterfall" raid.


The "Single Waterfall" raids tend to be down 3%, recovering a %.

when they were raiding hard, they would have 2 consecutive days of double waterfalls, 2 steps down each day, down about 5%, 2 days in a row.


i wonder if the Cartel Precious Metal Raid Schedule is tied to the Raider's vacation plans. are they all headed up to the Hampton's ?

maybe some of Blythe's crew was at Wimbledon, and the ones who are left at the NYC office are getting out of NYC for their vacation homes on Long Island or upstate New York.

manipulating currencies can be a stressful task, so they must manage their blood pressure wisely.

i wonder if they left one poor sucker behind to place a last minute trade to knock silver down to $18.70.

i wonder if they have a helicopter so if Blythe wants to go to Cape Cod for the weekend, she can manage the Day's raids, then jump on the JPM Copter and not have to deal with the huge traffic jam on the highways out to Cape Cod.

[Spectrism]

It looks like this is the best we will see. None of us suspected it would drop under $19. I think it is showing signs that the bottom HAS occurred. I just ordered 45 ozs from APMEX.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/15-surge-in-gdxj-indicates-potential-major-bottom-53408

15% Surge in GDXJ Indicates Potential Major Bottom

Larry Edelson | Monday, August 12, 2013 at 7:30 am





http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/2744/LarryEdelson.jpg



In a previous column, I showed you that my cycle work was showing a possible major low forming in the mining sector last Tuesday, August 6.
Well, I was wrong. It formed the next day, August 7.
You can see it here on this chart of the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX). Notice the spike low on August 7 and how it penetrated and closed below the uptrend line.



http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/2780/chart1.jpg (http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/2780/chart1s.jpg)



Click for larger version (http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/2780/chart1s.jpg)



Then the next day the GDX surged back above that uptrend line, exploding 9.08 percent higher.
That kind of move — plunging below an uptrend line and immediately and strongly reversing higher back above it — is typically only found at major lows.
So yes, I’d say the cycles were on the money and we have the potential for a major low. To confirm that low, I’d like to see GDX close above the downtrend line shown on the chart.



http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/2780/chart2.jpg (http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/2780/chart2s.jpg)



Click for larger version (http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/2780/chart2s.jpg)



You can see the same type of action in this chart of the ARCA Gold Bugs ETF (HUI). Note the fake out low and the 9.02 percent surge that followed.
A close above the downtrend line on this chart would confirm a major low for senior miners, which this ETF tracks.
You can also see it here on this chart of the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ). Again, notice the fake out move into a low followed by an amazing 15.35% single day surge in the most speculative junior miners.



http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/2780/chart3.jpg (http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/2780/chart3s.jpg)



Click for larger version (http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/2780/chart3s.jpg)



A close above the downtrend line on this chart, and junior miners are off to the races.
So the two most important questions now are:
First, is this the MAJOR bottom for mining shares, and if so, what kind of upside potential could there be over the short and long term? And …
Second, if gold and silver remain weak and head lower into September — as I’ve been warning — won’t that destroy the potential for a major bottom forming now in mining shares?
My answers:
Yes, we indeed have the potential for a MAJOR low in the mining sector. As noted above, the only remaining confirmation would be a close above the downtrend lines shown on each chart, for each of those mining share ETFs.
Assuming that happens, the short-term potential — say over the next six months — is as much as a 50 percent move. That’s not chicken feed.
Over the long-term — the next three years — I think the potential is extraordinary. The right mining shares should double, triple and even quadruple. Select explorers and junior miners should do even better, and multiply your money several times over.


http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/2780/image1.jpg



Mining stocks could multiply your money several times over during the next three years. But you must be patient before buying.



As to the second question, my models do indeed still show the potential for gold and silver to slide going into September and test the prior major lows or even spike lower to new lows.
But here’s the key you need to know: Don’t buy into the conventional wisdom that mining shares and gold and silver have to bottom — or top — at the same time. More often than not, they don’t parallel each other at important bottoms or tops. Instead, they do their own thing.
This is very important to understand. But not in the way you’re expecting to answer. Let me explain.
I don’t know precisely why mining shares and the underlying metals top or bottom at different times. There are a variety of reasons one can come up with, probably all valid, but in the end, no one really knows why.
The important point is this: As I noted earlier, don’t assume anything when it comes to the markets. Don’t have any preconceived notions of what they can or can’t do. Or what one market or sector can do versus another.
When you do that — and you have preconceived notions or accept commonly held beliefs — I can guarantee that it will trip you up and cost you way more money than it will ever make for you.
That’s always been true in the markets. Ask experienced investors or traders, and they will tell you that just about the worst thing you can do is accept commonly held beliefs or have preconceived notions.
That’s especially true with today’s markets. We are still in a financial crisis. We are in an era of drawn-out sovereign debt crises which can turn the markets — and commonly held beliefs and market relationships — on their heads and inside out.
I don’t want that for you. I don’t want you turned upside down and inside out. I want you with your feet on the ground, thinking objectively and independently. That’s how you will best protect and grow your wealth.
I consider it largely my job to help you do that. It’s why I am always challenging market opinions … often taking a contrarian’s point of view … and why I spend the majority of my time busting all the market myths that are out there.
There are many of them. And the simple truth is that most of what you hear from the talking heads in the financial media is pure garbage.
That said, I will always endeavor to help you see the world a bit differently, so that you’re not sheep led to slaughter.
Right now, here is what I recommend in regards to the miners: Be patient and wait for the above ETFs to close above those downtrend lines that you see on the charts. It’s the more conservative approach, but it should prove to be a nice way to get back into the mining sector.
For active subscribers to my Real Wealth Report and my speculative trading services, get ready to make a potential bundle of money in mining shares. Shortly I am going to pull the trigger on a slew of recommendations.
Best wishes,
Larry

[gunDriller]

It looks like this is the best we will see. None of us suspected it would drop under $19. I think it is showing signs that the bottom HAS occurred. I just ordered 45 ozs from APMEX.

did you buy more when it was at $18 - $19 ?

it's still a good deal at $21 spot, $22 & change with premium, maybe $23 per ounce delivered.


Bank of England has used up 20% of its Gold firepower, 1300 tons, in this year's price slam.

obviously a big Bankster Cartel spanning London & NY metal markets.

if they're willing to give up 100,000 400 ounce bars - and they got 400,000 bars left - i wouldn't mind if they tried to continue the stupid "Strong Dollar Policy"/ PM price suppression scheme.

i expect them to at least try one more time before the beginning of September, to get silver under $20.

because silver is often tracking with the Dow, a Dow crash in the next few months will create another buying opportunity ! :)

[Ponce]

You cannot run away from your past because the past will always be with you....but...you can run toward the future by learning from the past.

I see that the people are now pushing against the silver door, price is going up and down above 0.50 cents.

V

[Sparky]

did you buy more when it was at $18 - $19 ?

...
i expect them to at least try one more time before the beginning of September, to get silver under $20.

because silver is often tracking with the Dow, a Dow crash in the next few months will create another buying opportunity ! :)

I was concerned about a big drop in metals/miners with a drop in the Dow, but that correlation seems to have been inverted. If this is the beginning of a short squeeze, I don't think they'll be able to regain $20 again. As a matter of fact, if it's a short squeeze, they'll probably flip their positions to long. I think they know when they've reached their limit on the downside, at which point they will ride the wave up.

Furthermore, there was a lot of media flap about "rotation" of assets from dangerously high priced bonds into the stock market. Instead, it could be that the rotation will be from stocks and bonds into the heavily beaten down precious metals and miners sectors. This makes much more sense from a risk/reward point of view. The media never really talks about this alternative however. Shocking, right?

There was a big surge in the metals last July-Sep that ended up being a head fake. However, the early stages of this surge has much higher volume. That's a good sign.

[Spectrism]

I didn't buy cheaper as I was hoping prices would stay low for a while and physical prices would also drop. It was possible for silver to go a bit lower.

Now I see it as a 50% discount to buy it today. The real price I think it should be at is around $42.

But- the money games to be played by the global controllers will keep shaking things up. There are no rules to follow and the devils are ripping the markets any way they can. The best thing to do is get spiritual and get physical. True Spirit and true hard assets.

[Spectrism]

Still climbing... silver, that is. In this past week it went from $19.10 to currently $22.24. Gold is not moving as quickly. My guess is that silver will soon be over $28 and no chance of coming back down here again.

As I was writing... it just popped over $22.50.


update- I see it went over $23.... to $23.19. Currently dropped back to $22.96..... normal climb but sharp. Something broke loose here... some word got out or some default happened.

[Sparky]

I was concerned about a big drop in metals/miners with a drop in the Dow, but that correlation seems to have been inverted.
...

Today's another example of this. Stock market down big, metals/miners have turned it around and are now up solidly after a slow start.

[Serpo]

Still climbing... silver, that is. In this past week it went from $19.10 to currently $22.24. Gold is not moving as quickly. My guess is that silver will soon be over $28 and no chance of coming back down here again.

As I was writing... it just popped over $22.50.


update- I see it went over $23.... to $23.19. Currently dropped back to $22.96..... normal climb but sharp. Something broke loose here... some word got out or some default happened.

Once gold broke thru 1350 it brought in heaps of buying ,ive been waiting all week for this to happen

This happened..................http://gold-silver.us/forum/showthread.php?71748-Gold-ABC-pattern



also...

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/8/15_We_Are_Very_Late_In_The_End_Game_-_Its_Close_To_Game_Over.html (http://gold-silver.us/forum/showthread.php?71748-Gold-ABC-pattern)

[Neuro]

This is it, never below $20 again, ever!

[gunDriller]

Gold Silver Ratio down to 59.

it's been contracting by 1 or 2 a day.

at the rate it's going, the GSR will be down to 30 in September.

[Neuro]

Gold Silver Ratio down to 59.

it's been contracting by 1 or 2 a day.

at the rate it's going, the GSR will be down to 30 in September.
That will not happen, but it seems like silver is in a severe short squeeze.

[Serpo]

Seeing the major players are now long instead of short this maybe a true rise in the metals as we always knew they where going too crash before they really took off for good.

[Ponce]

Like I said two or three years ago...."When the people takes away the control of PM from the coats and ties it will then go up".....let it be known that WE are the people.

V

[Spectrism]

Like I said two or three years ago...."When the people takes away the control of PM from the coats and ties it will then go up".....let it be known that WE are the people.

V


We are the people.....

http://aphs.worldnomads.com/safetyhub/12392/chinese_crowds.jpg


http://catholicbridge.com/images/india/DavidIndia-crowd.jpg

[Ponce]

Spect? if you were to look for my old postings that was what I said....."but only by the Chinese and Indian people, because everyone in the US is broke".....by the way, when I said "people" it was meant in a general way.

V

[Serpo]

these too countries are at the moment buying half the worlds gold production

[Spectrism]

And they are dumping their US treasury bonds. Nice set up. Not only have the Ch & Ja stopped buying those worthless paper instruments, they have been dumping what they have as well as mortgage instruments. The federal reserve will be busy buying up the crap on the market to keep interest rates from spiking up. Plunge protection team now has some heavy competition pulling on their rope.