Glass
22nd May 2013, 12:00 AM
Climate slowdown means extreme rates of warming 'not as likely'
Scientists say the recent downturn in the rate of global warming will lead to lower temperature rises in the short-term.
Since 1998, there has been an unexplained "standstill" in the heating of the Earth's atmosphere.
Writing in Nature Geoscience (http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1836), the researchers say this will reduce predicted warming in the coming decades.
But long-term, the expected temperature rises will not alter significantly.
Continue reading the main story (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-22567023#story_continues_2) “The most extreme projections are looking less likely than before”
Dr Alexander Otto University of Oxford
The slowdown in the expected rate of global warming has been studied (http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2011/06/27/1102467108.abstract) for several years now. Earlier this year, the UK Met Office lowered (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/decadal-fc) their five-year temperature forecast. But this new paper gives the clearest picture yet of how any slowdown is likely to affect temperatures in both the short-term and long-term.
An international team of researchers looked at how the last decade would impact long-term, equilibrium climate sensitivity and the shorter term climate response.
Transient nature
Climate sensitivity looks to see what would happen if we doubled concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere and let the Earth's oceans and ice sheets respond to it over several thousand years.
Transient climate response is much shorter term calculation again based on a doubling of CO2.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported in 2007 (http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch10s10-es-1-mean-temperature.html) that the short-term temperature rise would most likely be 1-3C (1.8-5.4F).
But in this new analysis, by only including the temperatures from the last decade, the projected range would be 0.9-2.0C.
More story at BBC (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-22567023)
I think the last line in the quote is interesting. Why would you do that? Is it because thats the data set that shows the most variation? Is it because thats the time period where they have actively fabricated the numbers? It's not clear to me.......
Scientists say the recent downturn in the rate of global warming will lead to lower temperature rises in the short-term.
Since 1998, there has been an unexplained "standstill" in the heating of the Earth's atmosphere.
Writing in Nature Geoscience (http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1836), the researchers say this will reduce predicted warming in the coming decades.
But long-term, the expected temperature rises will not alter significantly.
Continue reading the main story (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-22567023#story_continues_2) “The most extreme projections are looking less likely than before”
Dr Alexander Otto University of Oxford
The slowdown in the expected rate of global warming has been studied (http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2011/06/27/1102467108.abstract) for several years now. Earlier this year, the UK Met Office lowered (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/decadal-fc) their five-year temperature forecast. But this new paper gives the clearest picture yet of how any slowdown is likely to affect temperatures in both the short-term and long-term.
An international team of researchers looked at how the last decade would impact long-term, equilibrium climate sensitivity and the shorter term climate response.
Transient nature
Climate sensitivity looks to see what would happen if we doubled concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere and let the Earth's oceans and ice sheets respond to it over several thousand years.
Transient climate response is much shorter term calculation again based on a doubling of CO2.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported in 2007 (http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch10s10-es-1-mean-temperature.html) that the short-term temperature rise would most likely be 1-3C (1.8-5.4F).
But in this new analysis, by only including the temperatures from the last decade, the projected range would be 0.9-2.0C.
More story at BBC (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-22567023)
I think the last line in the quote is interesting. Why would you do that? Is it because thats the data set that shows the most variation? Is it because thats the time period where they have actively fabricated the numbers? It's not clear to me.......