PDA

View Full Version : US to become top oil producer in 2014, break ‘commodity curse’ stereotype



Cebu_4_2
11th October 2013, 12:15 PM
US to become top oil producer in 2014, break ‘commodity curse’ stereotype Published time: October 11, 2013 14:11 Get short URL (http://rt.com/business/china-oil-usa-imports-021/)

http://rt.com/files/news/20/b8/50/00/oil.si.jpg AFP Photo / Robyn Beck



Share on tumblr (http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?v=300&winname=addthis&pub=unknown&source=tbx-300&lng=en-US&s=tumblr&url=http%3A%2F%2Frt.com%2Fbusiness%2Fchina-oil-usa-imports-021%2F&title=US%20to%20become%20top%20oil%20producer%20in %202014%2C%20break%20%E2%80%98commodity%20curse%E2 %80%99%20stereotype%20%E2%80%94%20RT%20Business&ate=AT-undefined/-/-/52584e6624cf687a/2&frommenu=1&uid=52584e66017175ac&ufbl=1&ct=1&tt=0&captcha_provider=nucaptcha)



Tags
China (http://rt.com/tags/china/), Global economy (http://rt.com/tags/global-economy/), Oil (http://rt.com/tags/oil/), Trade (http://rt.com/tags/trade/), USA (http://rt.com/tags/usa/)

The IEA says the US will overtake Russia as the biggest oil producer next year, citing the ‘shale revolution’ that has reshaped the global energy market. Some experts believe this will sober Russia and put a lid on talk of a ‘commodity curse’.
"With output of more than 10 million barrels per day for the last two quarters, its highest in decades, the nation is set to become the largest non OPEC liquids producer by the second quarter of 2014, overtaking Russia. And that's not even counting biofuels and refinery gains," the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday.

Growing production in America will drive non OPEC supply up by an average of 1.7 million barrels per day in 2014, to peak at 1.9 million in the second quarter, the highest annual growth since the 1970s, the IEA said.

The study by the West’s energy watchdog comes just a day after US government data showed that the country managed to significantly cut its imports in September, leaving the world’s top oil importer ranking to China.

Konstantin Simonov, general director at the National Energy Security Fund, also believes that sooner or later America will leave Russia behind in terms of oil production. “The US will overtake Russia, maybe not the next year, but it will happen at some point,” Simonov told RT.

The US has always been a big energy producer, with the shale exploration now helping to boost the industry. “However, there would be nothing disastrous for Russia; it’ll just stop our nonsensical talk about a “commodity curse”. The US is showing a perfect example that a country can have both strong - manufacturing and commodity sector,” Simonov explained.
Right now Russia needs to put its roots deeper into Asian markets, where consumption is growing very fast, the expert concluded.

http://rt.com/files/news/20/b8/50/00/shale.jpgA gas drilling site on the Marcellus Shale is seen in Hickory, Pennsylvania (Energy-Marcellus / Reuters / Jason Cohn)

Shale the real Revolutionary? While many experts claim a shale revolution has reshaped the world market, an interview with head of Royal Dutch Shell Peter Voser cast a shadow on its reputation over the weekend. In his interview with the Financial Times Voser said he was disappointed with the company’s investment in shale. He cited a $2.1billion damage to its shale portfolio. Overall, the company invested $24billion into unconventional oil and gas in North America.
“Unconventionals did not exactly play out as planned,” Mr Voser said.

Shell’s boss said the costs were due to the failure of a containment dome, a piece of equipment designed to catch any oil leaking on to the seabed, which was damaged during testing last year. “That was a big disappointment to me personally,” he said, adding that the company still didn’t know “if we’ll go back [into Alaskan waters] in 2014 or 2015”.
In case of increased shale exploration in the US “I’d rather use the term “boom”, not “revolution”, Grigory Birg, a co-director of the analytical department at Investcafe, told RT. “It’s not going to completely reshape the market, and a lot of companies are quickly abandoning developing shale. Such countries as Poland, Spain, the UK and Ukraine have most recently cut their shale exploration for a number of concerns that include ecological and cost issues,” Birg explained.

mamboni
11th October 2013, 01:53 PM
Shale oil is not cost-effective. American shale oil headed for bust. Russian oil much cheaper to produce and have their wells have far superior depletion rates (much lower).

mamboni
12th October 2013, 09:11 AM
Even though shale oil production from the Bakken in North Dakota has provided a great deal of oil to the United States, it has come at cost. According to Rune Likvern of Fractional Flow, his estimated cumulative net cash flow of the Shale Oil producers in the Bakken is now at a Negative $16 billion.



http://srsroccoreport.com/wp-content/uploads/July-2013-Estimated-Net-Cash-Flow-Bakken.png (http://srsroccoreport.com/wp-content/uploads/July-2013-Estimated-Net-Cash-Flow-Bakken.png)


The Red area of the chart shows the estimated cumulative net cash flow and the black bars represent the monthly net cash flow. Thus, the shale oil companies in the Bakken had to acquire an estimated $16 billion of additional funding not providing by their operations alone.
Unfortunately, unconventional oil resources such as Shale oil and gas will not be able to allow “Business as Usual” in the world to continue as the costs are greater than what consumers can afford to pay.

This is indeed the reason why we have been witnessing the “Great Shale Energy Hype” by the oil industry and official institutions. Without shale oil or gas, the Fiat Monetary System would have more than likely died a few years ago.

http://srsroccoreport.com/silver-vs-fiat-currencies-the-debt-ceiling-delusion/silver-vs-fiat-currencies-the-debt-ceiling-delusion/

mamboni
12th October 2013, 09:30 AM
Furthermore, I have stated that an increasing energy supply is vital in keeping a fiat monetary system alive. However, it doesn’t look as if shale oil will be the savior for the country or the Dollar for that matter. U.S. oil production increased steadily since 1920. From 1930 to 1970, oil production increased an average of 1.87 million barrels a day (mbd) each decade.


http://srsroccoreport.com/wp-content/uploads/U.S-field-Production-vs-Shale.png (http://srsroccoreport.com/wp-content/uploads/U.S-field-Production-vs-Shale.png)


However, shale oil has pushed domestic oil production up 2 mbd from July 2011 to July 2013, which is five times faster than its historic rate. Shale oil production is increasing at an exponential rate. The problem with any trends that increase exponentially, is that they decline is the same fashion. With all BOOMS… comes the inevitable BUST.

http://srsroccoreport.com/the-calm-before-the-precious-metals-storm/the-calm-before-the-precious-metals-storm/

midnight rambler
12th October 2013, 09:58 AM
http://srsroccoreport.com/wp-content/uploads/U.S-field-Production-vs-Shale.png (http://srsroccoreport.com/wp-content/uploads/U.S-field-Production-vs-Shale.png)





http://srsroccoreport.com/the-calm-before-the-precious-metals-storm/the-calm-before-the-precious-metals-storm/



Wow, that's an incredible increase, the downside will be at least as sharp if not more so.

mamboni
12th October 2013, 11:44 AM
Wow, that's an incredible increase, the downside will be at least as sharp if not more so.

Exactly! Idiot leftists in the WH and FED actually believe that they can borrow us into prosperity. They have pulled out all the stops pumping money into shale oil and it will be the biggest energy boondoggle since corn-to-ethanol. They are suppressing gold and silver prices in a desperate attempt to create the illusion of US dollar strength. The idiots have turned USA Inc into a big Potemkin village, a hedge fund that will collapse in epic fashion in time. The only question is when.