Financial Collapse

[Sparky]

We talk a lot about this here, but are not very clear on how this will play out. Kyle Bass, who became very wealthy by anticipating the sub-prime crisis, reveals in the link below that he thinks the fuse is the situation in Japan. Since it is very technical, my simple commentary follows:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-05/kyle-bass-warns-when-everyone-beggaring-thy-neighbor-there-will-be-consequences

Sparky summary and commentary...

Japan has huge structural financial problems that are critical because of their demographics, i.e. an aging homogeneous population. Simply put, they have too many people that will be relying on social support, and not enough workers. Because they are culturally homogenous, there is no influx of young immigrants to be the new producers. They are sitting on a lot of debt that they can't pay off. To relieve this situation, they are going to massive money printing. Nothing new about that.

But Bass' point is that all countries are moving toward money printing, and eventually this will lead to consequences. But Japan being the tipping point gives an indication of how this will all play out:

1) All currencies will begin to lose buying power. Japan's will be particularly furious.
2) Because all currencies will be diluted, this will not show up as a failure in any particular currency besides the yen, because currency exchanges are all relative. Even the yen won't completely collapse, because other countries will also be printing furiously.
3) The US Dollar will once again become the go-to currency. This will strengthen it in relative terms, and interest rates will likely go negative, i.e. you will pay money for the bank to secure your money in dollars.
4) Do not confuse this with purchasing power. All currencies will be losing purchasing power, but just at different rates. The Yen will get creamed. The US Dollar's fall will be softened because of the general currency panic.
5) Internationally, mounting debt burdens and diluted fiat will lead to war, with Bass guessing the big one will be a Japan-China war.
6) This is when things get really ugly, because the global anxiety and discord over war will become much more important than currency exchange rates. The value of the U.S. Dollar won't matter; it will all be about purchasing power. Eventually the U.S. will experience a lot of inflation, but it will be much worse in other countries.

We are seeing this now: Lots of political unrest and revolution is underway in a number of countries: Ukraine, Argentina, Syria, Egypt, etc. The discontent in the U.S. has a long way to go before approaching the level already occurring in these countries. We are not likely to reach the extreme levels of distress the much of the rest of the world will see. Yes, the standard of living will decrease significantly, and there will be hard times and some desperation seen intermittently at regional levels. You'll be glad you have been preparing. But other countries will absorb most of the fallout. Catherine Austin Fitts has explained how U.S. powers have already been making moves to "externalize" most of what will happen, since most of the world's rich, powerful people live in the U.S. The idea of "bugging out" to some other country is very misguided. In relative terms, this is where you'll best weather this generational storm.

[old steel]

I was told by a source it would be very bad in the USA and not as bad in Canada.

Guess we will find out.

You still sticking to your SHTF index for Spring 2014, Sparky??

[Neuro]

Yeah I agree on Japan being the first country hitting hyperinflation. Massive debt and virtually no raw materials...

[EE_]

How many more years will we talk about a financial collapse that never comes?

Wall Street has never been more bullish. It no longer matters if the Fed tapers or not. More QE is more money for the market. Taper means economy is healthy and good for stocks.

The wealthy are buying up everything in sight (except for worthless lumps of precious metals).
Home prices in best locations are going through the roof.
The art market is breaking records.
Collector cars are breaking records.
Billions are piling in to speculative crypto-currencies.
Sequester and debt ceiling is meaningless. Everyone is working that wants to work.
The world has never been better for the top 1%

Yeah, it's not the country most of us once knew, but it doesn't look like a collapse will come for many years yet.
Life is about as good as it's going to get...what more do people want?

[mamboni]

How many more years will we talk about a financial collapse that never comes?

Wall Street has never been more bullish. It no longer matters if the Fed tapers or not. More QE is more money for the market. Taper means economy is healthy and good for stocks.

The wealthy are buying up everything in sight (except for worthless lumps of precious metals).
Home prices in best locations are going through the roof.
The art market is breaking records.
Collector cars are breaking records.
Billions are piling in to speculative crypto-currencies.
Sequester and debt ceiling is meaningless. Everyone is working that wants to work.
The world has never been better for the top 1%

Yeah, it's not the country most of us once knew, but it doesn't look like a collapse will come for many years yet.
Life is about as good as it's going to get...what more do people want?

I am with Sparky on this issue. We are collapsing. We have been since 2008. TPTB have skillfully eased the rate of collapsed through monetization on a mass scale. I think that on average, everyone's standard of living will slowly decline over the next years simpy on the basis of decreasing EROI*** and resource depletion, be it soil, ore grades or fossil fuels. While I agree that the US dollar will have periods of strengthening and will likely be the last fiat currency to fail, I think it advisable to dollar cost average into physical gold. At some point within a year or two, there will be an international currency reset with gold reintroduced into the reserve base to provide for stability of exchange rates and monetary aggregates. If you consider that resource consumption and population growth must slow going forward, then gold is the perfect governor on the economic engine because the rate of gold accumulation is also decreasing, reflecting decreasing ore reserves and increasing cost of energy. By expanding balance sheets, central banks are fighting the tide of declining resources, slowing population growth and demographic aging over all. The central banks will lose in time because simply put, they cannot fight the tide.


***EROI, Energy Return On Investment

[mick silver]

i think we have a few more years before it done , we have done 5 years and the price of everything has went up but the pay , they are still sucking everything out of the ones that are left . so buy what you can today , stock up on some more silver if you can and lets not leave out food

[chad]

my wife and i are probably among the top 5% of wage earners in the united states. bear with me, i'm not boasting, i'm telling you this to make a point. most of our friends and family are in this same type of income bracket.

besides this fact, we have no debt besides about 180k left on the farm.

starting around august or so, i noticed a marked uptick in our month to month bills. insurance, fuel, propane, electric, food, etc. the normal stuff you have to buy to stay alive and functional if you are going to live a "normal" life all started going up and rather exponentially i might add.

at this point in 2013, we are only paying and buying what we absolutely have to. we have (except for stoves and private school tuition) eliminated almost ALL of our discretionary spending. in talking to our friends, almost all of them have done the same. NO discretionary spending is taking place.

when my wife and i are in the top 5% of income earners and we spend no money other than housing, utilities, food, fuel, and insurance, and almost everyone we know in the same income bracket is doing almost the exact same thing, NOTHING GOOD IS COMING DOWN THE PIKE. i don't care what charts say, economists say, pimco says, yellen says, what anybody says, i am witnessing daily the removal of people from the economy. and that is not happiness to see me.

[Silver Rocket Bitches!]

How many more years will we talk about a financial collapse that never comes?

Wall Street has never been more bullish. It no longer matters if the Fed tapers or not. More QE is more money for the market. Taper means economy is healthy and good for stocks.

The wealthy are buying up everything in sight (except for worthless lumps of precious metals).
Home prices in best locations are going through the roof.
The art market is breaking records.
Collector cars are breaking records.
Billions are piling in to speculative crypto-currencies.
Sequester and debt ceiling is meaningless. Everyone is working that wants to work.
The world has never been better for the top 1%

Yeah, it's not the country most of us once knew, but it doesn't look like a collapse will come for many years yet.
Life is about as good as it's going to get...what more do people want?

Is this a joke? The goods you mention are but inflation in action. QE is a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario. Collapse is inevitable. $17 trillion dollar deficit, $75 trillion in unfunded liabilities and $1000 trillion in OTC derivatives. There's nothing good about stocks when 10,000 baby boomers are retiring every month looking to cash out those stocks. It's a dam just waiting to burst when the right black swan appears.

[mamboni]

Is this a joke? The goods you mention are but inflation in action. QE is a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario. Collapse is inevitable. $17 trillion dollar deficit, $75 trillion in unfunded liabilities and $1000 trillion in OTC derivatives. There's nothing good about stocks when 10,000 baby boomers are retiring every month looking to cash out those stocks. It's a dam just waiting to burst when the right black swan appears.

I think it's more like 10,000 boomers retiring PER DAY. LOL

[EE_]

I think it's more like 10,000 boomers retiring PER DAY. LOL

The 1% don't give a squat about 10,000 boomers retiring. For all they care, boomers can crawl under a rock and die.
The 1% are all that matters...to them.

[EE_]

Is this a joke? The goods you mention are but inflation in action. QE is a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario. Collapse is inevitable. $17 trillion dollar deficit, $75 trillion in unfunded liabilities and $1000 trillion in OTC derivatives. There's nothing good about stocks when 10,000 baby boomers are retiring every month looking to cash out those stocks. It's a dam just waiting to burst when the right black swan appears.

Yes sir, this is a joke...the whole economy is a joke. Whenever I talk about the economy, I'm joking.
Everyone is lying and nothing makes sense anymore. My world is long gone. I'll be glad to give this world to the next generation when I leave this place. We're not even close to revolution, or I would have some hope.
The next generation doesn't even know how fucked they are. All they do is walk around like zombies with iPhones.
What percent (excluding Mexicans) can even spin a wrench, or repair their cars and homes anymore?

[Ponce]

I am one with the lowest 99% in income and yet........I live like top a 1%........how is this possible?....simple, the real world is in your mind and not by the propaganda that is given to you everyday.........I get $931.00 monthly from my SS and that gives me $600.00 play money out of that........the secret is to have no debt and to adjust my life to what I need and not to what I want.

I have never touch any of my extra goodies that I have put away..... where others need money to do something with I have extra cash and nothing more that I need.......talking about having a problem hahahahahahha

V

[EE_]

I am one with the lowest 99% in income and yet........I live like top a 1%........how is this possible?....simple, the real world is in your mind and not by the propaganda that is given to you everyday.........I get $931.00 monthly from my SS and that gives me $600.00 play money out of that........the secret is to have no debt and to adjust my life to what I need and not to what I want.

I have never touch any of my extra goodies that I have put away..... where others need money to do something with I have extra cash and nothing more that I need.......talking about having a problem hahahahahahha

V

Ponce, you ever hear the saying "you can't take it with you?" I understand you coming from a poor country, that being secure is enough...but is it really living?

Everyone has to decide what life means. Are you grabbing all the gusto you can?

If I had what you say you have, I'd be living life large.
I do all I can for what I have and will continue to do so until I can't any longer.

Right now I'm working on my home, but come spring I'll be on the road again, looking for more good times. Like they say, I'm not here for a long time, but I am here for a good time!

How much time do we really have left in this world?

Most of you guys don't believe anything comes after this life...how will you look at your life in the end?
How would you like to be remembered in a eulogy?

[palani]

I am one with the lowest 99% in income and yet........I live like top a 1%.

V

Got you beat. I am in the top 100% of non-income producers and see no problems at all. I haven't had an income since 2004 and in fact have never purchased anything my entire life as the government took away my ability to pay for anything in 1933.

The economy? That is a government owned construct. If you are including yourself as part of the economy ... well ... the analogy would be me stamping a brand on the rump of an Angus. You permanently mark yourself with the ownership of your master.

[Ponce]

EE? I know that all that I have is only on loan because someday it will pass to someone else.....but while I am here...IT IS MINE.

By the way, I have been dead three time ...... I was "asleep" I "woke" up and that was it, so that being dead does not bother me.

V

[Hatha Sunahara]

Palani, every time I hear you say you never purchase anything I am waiting for the answer to the obvious question: How do you do that? I have no problem imagining what Ponce does. Do you do all transactions through a corporation? An LLC, or some other surrogate? For somebody with no income and who spends nothing, you certainly seem to be doing quite well, and cheerful to boot. Are you keeping it a secret because if all of us did what you are doing, the game would be over? I just wish I had that kind of insulation from the economy that you do. Is this the secret of the .0001%? Or the top 100% as you call it? Have you already explained it and I missed it? Please enlighten me.

Hatha

[chad]

Palani, every time I hear you say you never purchase anything I am waiting for the answer to the obvious question: How do you do that? I have no problem imagining what Ponce does. Do you do all transactions through a corporation? An LLC, or some other surrogate? For somebody with no income and who spends nothing, you certainly seem to be doing quite well, and cheerful to boot. Are you keeping it a secret because if all of us did what you are doing, the game would be over? I just wish I had that kind of insulation from the economy that you do. Is this the secret of the .0001%? Or the top 100% as you call it? Have you already explained it and I missed it? Please enlighten me.

Hatha

he lives just like everyone else, he just changes terms and refers to things differently.

[EE_]

EE? I know that all that I have is only on loan because someday it will pass to someone else.....but while I am here...IT IS MINE.

By the way, I have been dead three time ...... I was "asleep" I "woke" up and that was it, so that being dead does not bother me.

V

All that matters is what makes you happy. Passing on a fortune to your heirs is something to be happy about.
I hope they appreciate it and understand the responsibility that comes with it. If they piss it away in a year and are broke again, that would be a waste.

Being dead does not bother me either...it's the "getting dead" that could be the hard part.

Ponce, come-on, let's go down to Florida right now and do some fishing in the sunshine and warm weather.
Are you ready...I'll set up a charter? We'll hire some pretty girls to go dancing at night. :p

[Jewboo]

Palani, every time I hear you say you never purchase anything I am waiting for the answer to the obvious question...For somebody with no income and who spends nothing, you certainly seem to be doing quite well, and cheerful to boot.




https://lh3.ggpht.com/_UeuaziTfv8Q/TLObIqOM8fI/AAAAAAAAACU/ZVHVzUp4krE/s1600/homeless_laptop.jpg
Steals wireless internet connection from Library to post about "Freedom"


:rolleyes:

[gunDriller]

is 'financial collapse' really that bad ?

many things associated with 'finance' are EVIL ... many things not associated with finance are GREAT, Life-giving.


if financial collapse means, the relative rise of all things NOT finance, - is that so bad ?

of course, rapid change can be stressful. re-defining success & a day's work can take some time.


i talked to a neighbor, career Navy, retired Captain. he mentioned how he was sort of 'at wit's end' after retiring. had trouble figuring out what to do with your time.

he ended up starting to write a book. not sure if he finished, but at least it was a relatively low-stress and therefore healthy response to change.


when we see Chimp-outs, white or black, we see unhealthy response to change.


as far as financial collapse - it sure will be interesting to watch ! i just hope that my own lifelines hold so that i can be so philosophical about it.


also i think we should acknowledge the approach of Agnut to collapse, i.e. if you are FULLY prepped, just go out & help your neighbor.

[Jewboo]

I haven't had an income since 2004...





http://youtu.be/m32f7F71ylQ


:rolleyes:

[Neuro]

https://lh3.ggpht.com/_UeuaziTfv8Q/TLObIqOM8fI/AAAAAAAAACU/ZVHVzUp4krE/s1600/homeless_laptop.jpg
Steals wireless internet connection from Library to post about "Freedom"


:rolleyes:


Way to go Book! :)

[Jewboo]

Yeah, it's not the country most of us once knew, but it doesn't look like a collapse will come for many years yet.



Yep. No sudden collapse. Just a gradual year-to-year transition from steak to burger to solent green biscuits for us Goyim. Seriously.

[Jewboo]

Way to go Book! :)


http://www.collegeconfidential.com/discus/clipart/wavey.gif

[mamboni]

my wife and i are probably among the top 5% of wage earners in the united states. bear with me, i'm not boasting, i'm telling you this to make a point. most of our friends and family are in this same type of income bracket.

besides this fact, we have no debt besides about 180k left on the farm.

starting around august or so, i noticed a marked uptick in our month to month bills. insurance, fuel, propane, electric, food, etc. the normal stuff you have to buy to stay alive and functional if you are going to live a "normal" life all started going up and rather exponentially i might add.

at this point in 2013, we are only paying and buying what we absolutely have to. we have (except for stoves and private school tuition) eliminated almost ALL of our discretionary spending. in talking to our friends, almost all of them have done the same. NO discretionary spending is taking place.

when my wife and i are in the top 5% of income earners and we spend no money other than housing, utilities, food, fuel, and insurance, and almost everyone we know in the same income bracket is doing almost the exact same thing, NOTHING GOOD IS COMING DOWN THE PIKE. i don't care what charts say, economists say, pimco says, yellen says, what anybody says, i am witnessing daily the removal of people from the economy. and that is not happiness to see me.

Yep, this jibes with my situation. Mind you, I am in a high income bracket, higher than yours, yet we are feeling the pinch a little bit. We are allergic to any debt as you are. Everything is bought with cash. But expenses are slowly rising and many neighbors are treading water and really struggling to stay above water. While we still have descretionary incoome, I have instructed the family to cut back - essentials and practical purchases only - as I want to stockpile some cash. No one is out spending on consumer gadgets and crap, mainly because they just don't have it to spend. I don't see how most local businesses can stay afloat, with only the large chains remianing open. But the latter are always EMPTY! No one is put spending money, except to buy gas and have dinner out. Driving is definitely down too - folk have cut back on driving.

[palani]

Palani, every time I hear you say you never purchase anything I am waiting for the answer to the obvious question: How do you do that? I have no problem imagining what Ponce does. Do you do all transactions through a corporation? An LLC, or some other surrogate? For somebody with no income and who spends nothing, you certainly seem to be doing quite well, and cheerful to boot. Are you keeping it a secret because if all of us did what you are doing, the game would be over? I just wish I had that kind of insulation from the economy that you do. Is this the secret of the .0001%? Or the top 100% as you call it? Have you already explained it and I missed it? Please enlighten me.

Hatha

I assigned everything I had or thought I had to a trust. Not my trust mind you. Just a trust. In exchange for a contract to provide for my needs. So far they have been doing a fairly good job as I have not had to rely on any sort of income for quite a while. Now if need be I could have them provide me a cow or a pig and I could raise that animal for my own freezer. I grow a pretty good garden sized and am capable of living entirely off the garden.

The car I once owned has been assigned by the trust to an llc. The llc provides license and insurance. Good deal since I don't believe in insurance (not a common law concept you know and therefore not within my religion). Since the llc is based in another county the plates aren't even from the area I live in.

I do help both the trust and the llc out occasionally but not as a paid employee. Just my good nature. They are capable of taking care of themselves but sometimes it would be less convenient than to just assist them.

End analysis ... I don't have to handle FRNs although if someone handed me a ten and asked me to buy a loaf of bread for them I would have no problem doing that and returning the change to boot. I am well able to act as an agent for someone else. To an outside observer this might appear as if I were purchasing the bread for myself but such is not the case.

[7th trump]

Whether or not you put property in a trust the associated taxes will be paid. You can put land in a trust, but the county will require the trust to pay the taxes.
All its doing is shifting the responsibility from the person to the trust.

LLC's (limited liability corporation) are just that.........corporations. Nobody really understands what it is they are incorporating INTO when they have an LLC. You incorporate into the federal government, the state, for some limited protection (big brother comes saves the day), usually from lawsuits from neglect and such or even sue happy people who want something for nothing....it goes both ways, but nonetheless it all big brother!
LLC's are not much different from trusts from the aspect of being responsible.
LLC's do not stop taxation. The LLC will be responsible for any and all taxes, instead of the customary individual.....which usually falls back on you to file unless you hire it out.


Any surprise palani has kept his relationship with the federal government a secret until now?
Talks about the evils of the commercial plane and yet hes smack dab right in the middle of profiting from it.

[palani]

Whether or not you put property in a trust the associated taxes will be paid. You can put land in a trust, but the county will require the trust to pay the taxes. All its doing is shifting the responsibility from the person to the trust.
To the best of my knowledge either the trust or the llc pay taxes somewhere along the line. This is not my concern so why should I worry? The FRN is a fraudulent instrument consisting of unequal weights and measures and I am not required to accept them or account for them.


LLC's (limited liability corporation) are just that.........corporations. Nobody really understands what it is they are incorporating INTO when they have an LLC. You incorporate into the federal government, the state, for some limited protection (big brother comes saves the day), usually from lawsuits from neglect and such or even sue happy people who want something for nothing....it goes both ways, but nonetheless it all big brother! Gee. If it were MY llc then I might be worried. What a trust does is beyond my pay scale to worry about. I had nothing to do with forming the llc. I had nothing to do with forming the trust. They just existed so I chose to contract with the trust. The llc is incidental.



LLC's are not much different from trusts from the aspect of being responsible. As long as you are going to strike a blow for responsibility then why not include insurance companies as a means to get out of liability?


LLC's do not stop taxation. The LLC will be responsible for any and all taxes, instead of the customary individual.....which usually falls back on you to file unless you hire it out. What the llc does is their concern not mine.



Any surprise palani has kept his relationship with the federal government a secret until now? This has nothing to do with the federal government. I chose a non-statutory common law trust to do business with. Why are you trying to figure out why you should attack a contract that you are not even a party to. In the words of Mohammed "GET STUFFED!!!"



Talks about the evils of the commercial plane and yet hes smack dab right in the middle of profiting from it. How can there be profit in a policy of no income ... unless you are planning on discussing how you lose out because of it? I avoid the commercial plane by ASKING. As-King. My prerogative.

Did you actually think I lived in a cardboard box under the overpass?

[chad]

is it possible to have ONE FUCKING THREAD on this board without YOU TWO FUCKING IDIOTS doing the same line-by-line conversation over & over for 12 pages and ruining it? i'm self banning myself - i can't take it anymore.

[Silver Rocket Bitches!]

I think it's more like 10,000 boomers retiring PER DAY. LOL

Correct you are, 10k per day. If only it were 10k per month!

[palani]

i'm self banning myself - i can't take it anymore.

I guess people in the upper 5% of the debt category aren't really very tolerant.

[Son-of-Liberty]

I have noticed the same thing over the past year. Expenses are creeping up even though I don't spend anything except the essentials. Gas and electric, insurance, fuel, food are all going up. I don't know how most people make ends meet anymore honestly.

The bankers are holding things together with their money printing and manipulations, isn't s good thing but it gives me more time to prepare.

[MAGNES]

It's going to be a slow burn , we are fucked, these are lessons from HYPERTIGER ,

with his original charts and original ground breaking ideas of truth ,

Hypertiger is one of the GIANTS of GIM, this forum belongs to him.

We knocked heads, so what, I accept Hypertiger as one of my teachers.

Maybe the noobs on here do not get that.

The FED Masters are too good at what they do, where is the bottom,
I don't see it in my generation, the lessons from GIM are even more
pronounced from what I see, self sufficiency, skills, learn a trade no matter
what job you have, prepping, land outside a city, homesteading/farming, I
am not there yet but may be. We see what SI does this summer and next.
I will settle with 24/26 this summer and 30 next summer, if not, ... lol !


Sept 19 2012 .

This is a must read Sprott interview.

Sprott: No Economic Recovery (http://gold-silver.us/forum/showthread.php?63728-Sprott-No-Economic-Recovery)

Here is my comments related to OP and Sprott work.

" I don't post much on Economics, just some background,
I joined GIM May2006 researching the FED 2005 and what they
were doing with M3, something we don't even look at now, recent
M3 is down to sideways as well, the money is all balance sheet parked,
non of it is making it to the real economy, if it did, M3 would
be going up, using the info we had we were able to predict
the future, and maybe capitalize on it and protect ourselves,
certain actions create certain realities, the economics
works, throw in ARMS resetting Jan2007 into the mix, boom is coming
with 3-6 months materialization visible for all, and we got our first
taste of the future August 2007 with major bank run in California,
it took a year for it to really hit, with WaMu and Lehman, and the
major dominoes started falling, we have seen a lot, until there is
a change in course the outcomes will be the same and worse.
We were able to predict the future with far less craziness pre 2007.
The money masters are good at what they do, I am surprised
they have been able to string this along in this fashion, their
course has not changed and the future is somewhat predictable,
more of the same and worse, forget time lines, the way we are
going, maybe we won't see a bottom in my lifetime ? I will be turning 40 soon.
Plan your life accordingly, self-sufficient as much as possible, and live.

Sept 2012 we have " QE3 " , aimed at MBS, monetizing, no budget or time line,
just $40 Billion per month, according to their reasoning, it will boost the economy,
consumption, housing , jobs, they don't give a shit about jobs, the only thing it
will do is improve some balance sheets short term and like past I highly doubt
you will get the banks investing in production. This is war on the middle class.

Great Sprott interview, covering all of this.
Sprott, linked to many times in past had great website full of free great info.
Sprott has always been a leader, key to watch.
http://www.sprott.com/precious-metal...-metals-watch/ (http://www.sprott.com/precious-metals/precious-metals-watch/)

Article is a bit dated, but very relevant here with QE3 MBS Monetization. "

[Sparky]

I was told by a source it would be very bad in the USA and not as bad in Canada.

Guess we will find out.

You still sticking to your SHTF index for Spring 2014, Sparky??

I think Canada and U.S. will be similar; neither will be as bad as some of the countries that are currently beginning the birth pains of debt implosion. In some regards, the fall in the U.S. will seem dramatic, but largely because we are beginning the fall from such a lofty standard of living. Free stuff for everybody, all the time. It's hard to beat that. Those who have been accustomed to and rely on government assistance will hurt the most. But the government will feel compelled to spare them too much grief, and try to solve it with money printing. The difference is, money printing to the needy has very high velocity because it gets spent immediately. It is then that we will see inflation break out of its cage.

I still think the Spring 2014 is a good target for a big ramp-up for TSHTF, i.e. an increase in intensity. But I don't view it as some final blowout event. Rather, I think it will be followed by another long stretch of slow erosion to standard of living, perhaps across a generation.

[Sparky]

Yeah I agree on Japan being the first country hitting hyperinflation. Massive debt and virtually no raw materials...

Yes, Kyle Bass has been pointing out that Japan's structural problems are ominous, and it is just a question of time before they bust out of control. He has said that predicting timing is difficult, but earlier in the year he said he expected it to occur within 18-24 months, which puts it in the 2014-2015 time frame.

[Sparky]

How many more years will we talk about a financial collapse that never comes?

Wall Street has never been more bullish. It no longer matters if the Fed tapers or not. More QE is more money for the market. Taper means economy is healthy and good for stocks.

The wealthy are buying up everything in sight (except for worthless lumps of precious metals).
Home prices in best locations are going through the roof.
The art market is breaking records.
Collector cars are breaking records.
Billions are piling in to speculative crypto-currencies.
Sequester and debt ceiling is meaningless. Everyone is working that wants to work.
The world has never been better for the top 1%

Yeah, it's not the country most of us once knew, but it doesn't look like a collapse will come for many years yet.
Life is about as good as it's going to get...what more do people want?

I know this is largely sarcasm, yet it makes the point. It seems like predictions of doom are only met with continuing material and nominal gains. Yet this is what I mean about the U.S. being like a big ship that can take on a lot of water before beginning to list.

[Sparky]

I am with Sparky on this issue. We are collapsing. We have been since 2008. TPTB have skillfully eased the rate of collapsed through monetization on a mass scale. I think that on average, everyone's standard of living will slowly decline over the next years simpy on the basis of decreasing EROI*** and resource depletion, be it soil, ore grades or fossil fuels. While I agree that the US dollar will have periods of strengthening and will likely be the last fiat currency to fail, I think it advisable to dollar cost average into physical gold. At some point within a year or two, there will be an international currency reset with gold reintroduced into the reserve base to provide for stability of exchange rates and monetary aggregates. If you consider that resource consumption and population growth must slow going forward, then gold is the perfect governor on the economic engine because the rate of gold accumulation is also decreasing, reflecting decreasing ore reserves and increasing cost of energy. By expanding balance sheets, central banks are fighting the tide of declining resources, slowing population growth and demographic aging over all. The central banks will lose in time because simply put, they cannot fight the tide.


***EROI, Energy Return On Investment

I agree in principle, but I think your timing is too fast. Sovereign nations benefit greatly from a gold-free fiat system, and no one benefits more than the U.S., who controls world politics. There will not be enough pressure to move to any gold backing until all of the dominoes have fallen, and that means when the U.S. inflation is rampant and its reserve currency devaluation becomes too much for creditors to bear. This will take much more than a year or two.

[Sparky]

i think we have a few more years before it done , we have done 5 years and the price of everything has went up but the pay , they are still sucking everything out of the ones that are left . so buy what you can today , stock up on some more silver if you can and lets not leave out food
Yes, there is still time. Prices have gone up, but most items are not out of reach for the majority of those who are aware enough to take advantage of continuing availability of food/supplies and undervalued precious metals.

[Sparky]

Ponce, you ever hear the saying "you can't take it with you?" I understand you coming from a poor country, that being secure is enough...but is it really living?

Everyone has to decide what life means. Are you grabbing all the gusto you can?

If I had what you say you have, I'd be living life large.
I do all I can for what I have and will continue to do so until I can't any longer.

Right now I'm working on my home, but come spring I'll be on the road again, looking for more good times. Like they say, I'm not here for a long time, but I am here for a good time!

How much time do we really have left in this world?

Most of you guys don't believe anything comes after this life...how will you look at your life in the end?
How would you like to be remembered in a eulogy?

Valid points, EE. But for some, "living" is a peaceful state of mind, and in Ponce's case it is the internal comfort and serenity he gets from the assuredness of being prepared, and the satisfaction knowing that it is the result of his own foresight and diligence. This is a mindset that increases with age, as your opportunities for "external" living diminish.

[Sparky]

is 'financial collapse' really that bad ?

many things associated with 'finance' are EVIL ... many things not associated with finance are GREAT, Life-giving.


if financial collapse means, the relative rise of all things NOT finance, - is that so bad ?

of course, rapid change can be stressful. re-defining success & a day's work can take some time.


i talked to a neighbor, career Navy, retired Captain. he mentioned how he was sort of 'at wit's end' after retiring. had trouble figuring out what to do with your time.

he ended up starting to write a book. not sure if he finished, but at least it was a relatively low-stress and therefore healthy response to change.


when we see Chimp-outs, white or black, we see unhealthy response to change.


as far as financial collapse - it sure will be interesting to watch ! i just hope that my own lifelines hold so that i can be so philosophical about it.


also i think we should acknowledge the approach of Agnut to collapse, i.e. if you are FULLY prepped, just go out & help your neighbor.

This is a great attitude. I think the most common reason that many here (and elsewhere) would actually welcome some type of collapse is that it would act as a mechanism to re-set our societal values, which have become distorted. Some of us envision the opportunity to help others.

[Sparky]

Yep. No sudden collapse. Just a gradual year-to-year transition from steak to burger to solent green biscuits for us Goyim. Seriously.

Seriously. With or without the Jewish component, to which I am ambivalent. I don't know what the last transition will be, but I'm thinking the Soylent Green stage does not reach the U.S. Perhaps in some of those countries where they are already taking revolutionary actions. This is what I mean about the U.S. insulating itself from the worst of it.

[Sparky]

I have noticed the same thing over the past year. Expenses are creeping up even though I don't spend anything except the essentials. Gas and electric, insurance, fuel, food are all going up. I don't know how most people make ends meet anymore honestly.

The bankers are holding things together with their money printing and manipulations, isn't s good thing but it gives me more time to prepare.
Yes, it's amazing how long the grind can be prolonged. Lots of people only make ends meet through government assistance. As the grind continues, this is a larger and larger group. There's a breaking point. That's when TSHTF. We just don't know when, or how bad. The U.S. has an incredible amount of resources, but it could become dicey if their distribution becomes disorderly. Government is fighting to keep this distribution orderly.

[Sparky]

It's going to be a slow burn , we are fucked, these are lessons from HYPERTIGER ,

with his original charts and original ground breaking ideas of truth ,

Hypertiger is one of the GIANTS of GIM, this forum belongs to him.

We knocked heads, so what, I accept Hypertiger as one of my teachers.

Maybe the noobs on here do not get that.

The FED Masters are too good at what they do, where is the bottom,
I don't see it in my generation, the lessons from GIM are even more
pronounced from what I see, self sufficiency, skills, learn a trade no matter
what job you have, prepping, land outside a city, homesteading/farming, I
am not there yet but may be. We see what SI does this summer and next.
I will settle with 24/26 this summer and 30 next summer, if not, ... lol !
...


I always think about timing, which is why I am such a big fan of The Fourth Turning. We tend to think things are always just around the corner, when in fact, things take time. I think we will see the next crisis flair this coming Spring 2014. But it will remain a slow burn. The Fourth Turning takes a look back through centuries to get a better handle on timing. In 1997, the authors predicted a critical event would occur a decade later, and this was manifest as the 2007-2009 financial crisis. They then predicted that this would be followed by nearly 20 years of turmoil. We're 6 years into it now, almost 7. I think another 10-15 years of slow burn (with occasional flare-ups) makes logical and historical sense.

However, I don't like to view us as being "fucked". Throughout history, many generations have suffered through far more harsh periods than what is ahead. Think of the horror of the Dark Ages during the Medieval Period. It just seems worse now because of our lofty standards. And it seems worse because it's around the corner. But as I have said, there may be a silver lining if it results in a re-set of our societal values. And as gunDriller said, we can make the most of it when it's here. We don't have to be miserable during a financial collapse. Many good things remain standing.

[Jewboo]

I think the most common reason that many here (and elsewhere) would actually welcome some type of collapse is that it would act as a mechanism to re-set our societal values, which have become distorted.





http://www.seanborggoesla.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/Young-and-Old.jpg

:rolleyes: I wonder why these geezer millionaires stopped singing about Revolution some time ago...

[Horn]

Japan may be a fuse, but I think all countries will suffering including U.S.

I see a run to local currencies, and countries unable to provide for themselves suffering the most.

Another dollar bounce will be the dead cat type.

[old steel]

Without fuel they were nothing. They built a house of straw. The thundering machines sputtered and stopped. Their leaders talked and talked and talked. But nothing could stem the avalanche. Their world crumbled. The cities exploded. A whirlwind of looting, a firestorm of fear. Men began to feed on men.

On the roads it was a white line nightmare. Only those mobile enough to scavenge, brutal enough to pillage would survive. The gangs took over the highways, ready to wage war for a tank of juice. And in this maelstrom of decay, ordinary men were battered and smashed.

Except for one man armed with an AK-47, and a Honda full of silver.

[Sparky]

Japan may be a fuse, but I think all countries will suffering including U.S.

I see a run to local currencies, and countries unable to provide for themselves suffering the most.

Another dollar bounce will be the dead cat type.

This is why it is so important to distinguish between "what the US Dollar does", and its buying power, and that there is little chance that we will see a demise of the US Dollar. If the U.S. prints so much money that it's buying power is cut in half, but other countries do the same, the USD loses no exchange value. If another country prints so much money (e.g. Japanese Yen) that it loses two-thirds of its buying power, the USD actually increases in value, even while it is losing purchasing power. This is why it is hard to imagine the Dollar collapsing; it would require that other countries refrain from printing. This is simply not where things are headed.

[kiffertom]

heres another type of collapse! I ask a girl I know who is 30 how many friends that she knows are in the trades. she ask does food count? I said f**k no! she said she knew of no one! I just came back from costa rica. I ask some 25 year old American kids how many of their friends were in the trades. the guy said you mean a carpenter of electrician? I said yes. he told me only one. I then ask how many are in college? he said everyone he knew. how many twenty somethings can hammer a nail? this is going to be a real problem when we approach out late 60's and early 70's! other than Mexicans who will be able to build anything? who will be able to fix anything?

[Sparky]

heres another type of collapse! I ask a girl I know who is 30 how many friends that she knows are in the trades. she ask does food count? I said f**k no! she said she knew of no one! I just came back from costa rica. I ask some 25 year old American kids how many of their friends were in the trades. the guy said you mean a carpenter of electrician? I said yes. he told me only one. I then ask how many are in college? he said everyone he knew. how many twenty somethings can hammer a nail? this is going to be a real problem when we approach out late 60's and early 70's! other than Mexicans who will be able to build anything? who will be able to fix anything?

Yes, the value of a college education has been distorted. This is coming to light as the number of college graduates with no jobs and big debt continues to increase. The landscape is headed for a change with this awakening. Things move in cycles. We are headed for a period of time for which skills will matter.

[EE_]

heres another type of collapse! I ask a girl I know who is 30 how many friends that she knows are in the trades. she ask does food count? I said f**k no! she said she knew of no one! I just came back from costa rica. I ask some 25 year old American kids how many of their friends were in the trades. the guy said you mean a carpenter of electrician? I said yes. he told me only one. I then ask how many are in college? he said everyone he knew. how many twenty somethings can hammer a nail? this is going to be a real problem when we approach out late 60's and early 70's! other than Mexicans who will be able to build anything? who will be able to fix anything?

I find it sad the building trades have been turned over to Mexican labor. It's becoming the same for many vital industries we need, that service our real world. The white American is above manual labor now.
The building trades have been ruined. They have become a miserable slave industry with no pride of workmanship.

[kiffertom]

something else to tthink about! repair not just construction! I was told the average age of a lawn mower mechanic is 46. heres something on car mechanics!
http://www.autorepairadvisors.com/information_on_the_average_autom.shtml whos gonna fix things when the dollar collapses?

[mick silver]

thats why i buy all the tools i can , plus i can

[Neuro]

heres another type of collapse! I ask a girl I know who is 30 how many friends that she knows are in the trades. she ask does food count? I said f**k no! she said she knew of no one! I just came back from costa rica. I ask some 25 year old American kids how many of their friends were in the trades. the guy said you mean a carpenter of electrician? I said yes. he told me only one. I then ask how many are in college? he said everyone he knew. how many twenty somethings can hammer a nail? this is going to be a real problem when we approach out late 60's and early 70's! other than Mexicans who will be able to build anything? who will be able to fix anything?
It used to be that you actually had to be talented and intelligent to be accepted to higher education. Nowadays they lowered the standards to let anyone in with a pulse and a student loan application. No child left behind became every child left behind, or a generation of morons, that are incompetent at everything, be it engineering or carpentry. All by design!

[Jewboo]

something else to think about! repair not just construction! I was told the average age of a lawn mower mechanic is 46...whos gonna fix things when the dollar collapses?




http://builtstlouis.net/eaststlouis/images/eaststl-314.jpg
Lawn Mowing is very important when people have nothing to eat after the collapse


:rolleyes:

[Jewboo]

I find it sad the building trades have been turned over to Mexican labor.




http://www.myconfinedspace.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/wtf-construction-worker-500x405.jpg

:rolleyes:

http://texasgopvote.com/sites/default/files/Hispanic%20workers%20in%20Tuscaloosa.jpg

[Son-of-Liberty]

heres another type of collapse! I ask a girl I know who is 30 how many friends that she knows are in the trades. she ask does food count? I said f**k no! she said she knew of no one! I just came back from costa rica. I ask some 25 year old American kids how many of their friends were in the trades. the guy said you mean a carpenter of electrician? I said yes. he told me only one. I then ask how many are in college? he said everyone he knew. how many twenty somethings can hammer a nail? this is going to be a real problem when we approach out late 60's and early 70's! other than Mexicans who will be able to build anything? who will be able to fix anything?

That is an interesting observation Kiffertom.

Where do you live? I would say that my observation has been about opposite to yours.

I live in Alberta and the oil boom has attracted a lot of people who make a lot of money and they need places to live so construction is booming. Many of my friends including myself are in the trades.

I would suspect that in the areas of the US that are also booming due to oil there is a similar resurgence in tradesman.

[jimswift]

me thats why i buy all the tools i can , plus i can

I love tools! I try to buy something whenever I can.

They are invaluable if you use or have uses for them.

[mick silver]

pawn shops are a great place to buy tools . most will deal with you on the price

[mamboni]

pawn shops are a great place to buy tools . most will deal with you on the price

When I vacationed in Florida, I visited pawn shops for relaxation, to buy tools. 99% of the tools were motorcycle and automotiver-related: compressors, wrenchs, engine parts bla bla bla. Didn't buy anything.

[kiffertom]

I love tools! I try to buy something whenever I can.

They are invaluable if you use or have uses for them.if youre like me when you need that special tool you cant find it so you go out and buy another one and the next day the one you were looking for pops up!

[MAGNES]

.

More Misleading Official Employment Statistics —
Paul Craig Roberts

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2013/12/10/misleading-official-employment-statistics-paul-craig-roberts/

Longtime staple, PCR .

There has never been a recovery they keep talking about last few years.

[Walter Mitty]

If China and Japan go to war, gold will go to $5,000 / oz overnight.( and silver to $200)
I agree with Hypertiger, they are managing the collapse.
That doesn't mean there won't be disruptions, shortages at various times and intermittent chaos.

[kiffertom]

That is an interesting observation Kiffertom.

Where do you live? I would say that my observation has been about opposite to yours.

I live in Alberta and the oil boom has attracted a lot of people who make a lot of money and they need places to live so construction is booming. Many of my friends including myself are in the trades.

I would suspect that in the areas of the US that are also booming due to oil there is a similar resurgence in tradesman.I live in ky! we use to have 4 vocational schools now only one! almost all of my friends are in the trades or are retired from the trades. the problem is not many are entering the trades. a friend of mine built an auto repair garage. the sewer cost a fortune to install. when my friend ask the guy why so much he replied" I wanted to be a doctor but it didn't pay enough"!this id where we're headed!

[mick silver]

i am jack of all trades an master of non . it saves a hell of lots of paper money being able to fix stuff without the need to call someone

[Sparky]

If China and Japan go to war, gold will go to $5,000 / oz overnight.( and silver to $200)
I agree with Hypertiger, they are managing the collapse.
That doesn't mean there won't be disruptions, shortages at various times and intermittent chaos.

I think we've seen that this is not the case at all. (It seems like we never learn this lesson). Look at what happened during the Gulf wars, or 9/11, or the financial crisis. The immediate reaction was a move into US Dollars, which lowers the gold price. Then, eventually, the fundamentals resume and gold is redeemed over time. But we have to get past this misconception that global chaos leads to a spike in gold. It just doesn't happen.

[Sparky]

i am jack of all trades an master of non . it saves a hell of lots of paper money being able to fix stuff without the need to call someone

For sure. Those skills are very valuable. I've had to learn them the hard way by trial and error, as I've had no mentor to teach me. Where did you learn them?

[Neuro]

I think we've seen that this is not the case at all. (It seems like we never learn this lesson). Look at what happened during the Gulf wars, or 9/11, or the financial crisis. The immediate reaction was a move into US Dollars, which lowers the gold price. Then, eventually, the fundamentals resume and gold is redeemed over time. But we have to get past this misconception that global chaos leads to a spike in gold. It just doesn't happen.
I remember when I grew up, that this was something I heard many times. "In times of a crisis, gold always go up in price", certainly you are absolutely right that it hasn't really happened during at least the last 30 years. I wonder if it changed as the petrodollar came to be in the 70's. In a way money moves in the direction of who has the biggest guns, the US, and thus the USD is strengthened. Last time a crisis led to a pumped up gold price, was in connection with the Iranian revolution, were the US was in a severely weakend position, and I guess the petrodollar was at least perceived to be under threat with the loss of the Iranian ally....

[Horn]

Japan and China getting to a hot war seems more a figment than a gold spike, maybe a cold war...

After a run and subsequent plundering of local currencies gold could spike, silver of course leading the way.

With Gold being officially capped at 35 World-O's after silver falls.

Goldbugs are World-O baron converts in the waiting.

[MAGNES]

MORE PCR, half of his articles going back years are about economics,
he never misses giving a good summary of what is happening, you
can hotlink a lot of his articles the way Raimondo does at antiwar.com
connecting the dots.

Has lots on the dollar, even page one here is dollar dollar dollar.

Including that TPP thing, hidden from the public, NAU on steroids,
according to PCR it is about saving the dollar, expanding corporatism,
basically prolonging the inevitable, everyone will inflate in unison, LOL !

Many of you have your own sources, but PCR is one stop shopping,
MUST READING ! If you are going to read anything, read PCR.
I cut a lot of my noise out over the years, you should too.
I you are going to read more of the same, read PCR, spread wide.

Recently I reupped my subscriptons to Forbes, Fortune, been reading for
about a two years, I wanted to see how they covered issues, was a reader
long ago, PCR is by far better reading for free, buy his books.

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/category/articles/

Make sure to save the link and check back regularly,
every major story and event has great analysis,
also remember his archive on

Paul Craig Roberts Syndicated Columns (http://www.vdare.com/roberts/all_columns.htm)