The future of work is unemployment

[vacuum]

For every job opening in the US, there are 3 people looking for work. That's really all you need to know.
And it's going to get worse.

You know that fancy billing program that generates quotes and invoices automatically? That used to be someone's job.
That fancy spreadsheet? That was someone's job once.

I remember when I was going to school for Drafting and all of the instructors were insistent on the fact that you absolutely, positively, 100% HAD to have an expert knowledge of trigonometry in order to draw.

But you don't. The best grade I ever got in Trig was a D+. And I can draw. I've never needed to do anything beyond basic math when using AutoCAD.
It's more than just robots that are going to take our jobs away. Automation in software is going to do as much if not more damage to the outlook. Engineering degrees are becoming less and less about the concepts behind design. They are teaching you less and less why to design something a certain way and more and more how to do so. A modern engineering degree is more of a "How to use software programs X,Y and Z" course than a "how to engineer" course.

Back before these tasks were automated in software, they had to be done by hand, by very smart people, who were in extreme high demand, and made lots of money as a result.

Software has dumbed-down so many of those advanced tasks that someone with barely any knowledge of the concept behind it can do the task equally as well as the knowledgeable person. Companies see that and the "Cost savings! Cost savings!" alarm goes off in the board room. No need to hire the engineer who got straight As and has 30 years of experience when the intern knows the software better.

We're moving very quickly to becoming a post-scarcity society where automation and advances in information technology make just about everything so cheap to make and obtain it basically becomes free.

Now, we may laud these advances and say "that's the whole point! We don't have to work as much!" But when you look at what's actually happening, it's the opposite. My generation (I'm either a millenial or a gen-xer depending on who you ask, but this applies to both) works longer hours than the generations before us. We take fewer vacation days. We are more productive.

But at the same time, we are getting paid less. Why? Because we're still living in that old mentality where hours worked has a direct correlation to added value to the company. Most of us know that's not true, and few companies are under the illusion that everyone is exactly as productive at 4:30 pm on a Friday as they are at 10 am on a Wednesday. But how do you measure productivity? We haven't figured that out yet, at least not in a way that's fair, consistent, and manageable. Until we do, we're still largely going to pretend that hours = value, and watch as hours get cut, benefits get slashed, and older, more skilled workers are put out to pasture and replaced with younger, cheaper workers. All of the value automation adds to a process go directly to the top, and the human workers get their wages slashed and their jobs cut.

The unemployed are sneered at with derision for not "wanting to work," as if there is some pressing task that needs to be accomplished that isn't already being done. That's the old farmhouse mentality again. 100 years ago if you didn't work, you died. That's not true now. It can't be true because there isn't enough work to keep everyone busy in the first place. We've corporatized, mechanized, and automated farming, banking, government, you-name it. We have unemployed because things don't need to get done like they used to. But the concept of paying someone not to work is such an anathema to the down-home, work-based, agricultural values we were raised with that most of us simply shut our brains off when we even hear the notion.

Either we accept the fact that even if every job opening were filled today, there'd still be millions of people who will be perpetually unemployed and deal with that in a humane manner; or, we continue to let the system work as if we're all agricultural workers and let those increase profits reaped by automation rise to the top, and wake up one day realizing the middle class has all but disappeared and the feudal system has returned.

http://www.reddit.com/r/Automate/comments/1uvqxj/are_we_at_a_tipping_point_for_jobs_and_society/ceopql0

[vacuum]

Note: posted this thread while at work :)

[Ares]

Vacuum

This article is spot on. I was hired where I'm at for system deployment automation. I've gotten Windows 7 migration and deployment down to where 1 person can deploy literally thousands of workstations with as little as 2-3 minutes per boot-up. Put in the machine name, and domain it's going to belong to launch the rest of my customization scripts, package it, and done. Most of it is written in batch but I easy could of done it in python.

[Santa]

Excellent article. I recommend reading all of the comments at the link as well. Very thought provoking.

"According to an old legend, vizier Sissa Ben Dahir presented an Indian King Sharim with a beautiful, hand-made chessboard. The king asked what he would like in return for his gift and the courtier surprised the king by asking for one grain of rice on the first square, two grains on the second, four grains on the third etc. The king readily agreed and asked for the rice to be brought. All went well at first, but the requirement for 2 n − 1 grains on the nth square demanded over a million grains on the 21st square, more than a million million (aka trillion) on the 41st and there simply was not enough rice in the whole world for the final squares.

"In technology strategy, 'the second half of the chessboard is a phrase', coined by Ray Kurzweil,[4] in reference to the point where an exponentially growing factor begins to have a significant economic impact on an organization's overall business strategy."

I agree with Kurzweil in that we are now in the second half of the chess board. And realize, automation is only one facet of exponential technological growth.

[Ares]

It keeps getting "better".

They are automating the way machines are programmed by looking into machine learning.

http://theweek.com/article/index/229858/did-google-just-give-birth-to-artificial-intelligence

[VX1]

Being in software development, there was a time when the suits tried to gauge productivity by counting lines of code. Dumbest fucking idea ever!

Times have changed... we don't even have vacation days anymore... anyone can take off any time they want. I'm all about freedom, but judging by how hard it was to keep resources allocated to my projects last year... might be second dumbest fucking idea ever!

[Ares]

Being in software development, there was a time when the suits tried to gauge productivity by counting lines of code. Dumbest fucking idea ever!

Times have changed... we don't even have vacation days anymore... anyone can take off any time they want. I'm all about freedom, but judging by how hard it was to keep resources allocated to my projects last year... might be second dumbest fucking idea ever!

What kind of development work do you do? You proficient in C++ Python, and cryptography? If so I might have a profitable opportunity as I am NOT good at development. I'm good at scripting, and I.T. infrastructure.

[Libertytree]

I'm grateful as all hell that I lucked out and found this gig, it's a great situation and adds real value to all concerned. I'm a blessed man!

I ventured out job hunting for awhile and it wasn't pretty, it was damn depressing to say the least.

[Santa]

What kind of development work do you do? You proficient in C++ Python, and cryptography? If so I might have a profitable opportunity as I am NOT good at development. I'm good at scripting, and I.T. infrastructure.

Oh, Great! Due to the expone-speed of information technology, you two alone will probably end up being responsible for the death of hundreds of thousands of jobs in the near future.

[Santa]

I'm grateful as all hell that I lucked out and found this gig, it's a great situation and adds real value to all concerned. I'm a blessed man!

I ventured out job hunting for awhile and it wasn't pretty, it was damn depressing to say the least.

I hear ya. I've said it before and I'll say it again. We aught to be getting paid a living wage just to write snarky irreverent comments to each other on Internet forums like this one. :)

[Ares]

Oh, Great! Due to the expone-speed of information technology, you two alone will probably end up being responsible for the death of hundreds of thousands of jobs in the near future.

Oh go get a job... j/k :D

[Libertytree]

I hear ya. I've said it before and I'll say it again. We aught to be getting paid a living wage just to write snarky irreverent comments to each other on Internet forums like this one. :)

You don't get the check?

[Santa]

You don't get the check?

Well dang, not a "living" wage. Maybe I need to up my productive snark level. :)

[woodman]

If people can get paid for not working, what is to keep people working who are needed by society? I mean, if you can get paid for doing nothing, then why work at all? I think we can agree that people should be productive and take care of themselves. I am not my brothers keeper, at least not by choice. I am surrounded by people who do no work of any kind and live quite decently. There are many others in my community who's job is based solely upon taking care of their needs. A friend's wife who works for the state as a social worker, actually refers to them as her 'clients'. Clients for Fuck's sake!

[Libertytree]

If people can get paid for not working, what is to keep people working who are needed by society? I mean, if you can get paid for doing nothing, then why work at all? I think we can agree that people should be productive and take care of themselves. I am not my brothers keeper, at least not by choice. I am surrounded by people who do no work of any kind and live quite decently. There are many others in my community who's job is based solely upon taking care of their needs. A friend's wife who works for the state as a social worker, actually refers to them as her 'clients'. Clients for Fuck's sake!

She means "her meal tickets".

[woodman]

....

[VX1]

What kind of development work do you do? You proficient in C++ Python, and cryptography? If so I might have a profitable opportunity as I am NOT good at development. I'm good at scripting, and I.T. infrastructure.
Nah, a lot of scripting, Java, Flex/Flash...

[Ares]

Nah, a lot of scripting, Java, Flex/Flash...

I script mostly with Batch, Powershell, and Python... I should probably just start teaching myself C++. lol

How are you with coffee script? There are some trading bots I've been experimenting with based entirely on coffee script.

[woodman]

...

[VX1]

I script mostly with Batch, Powershell, and Python... I should probably just start teaching myself C++. lol

How are you with coffee script? There are some trading bots I've been experimenting with based entirely on coffee script.

Yeah, there was a time when we did a lot of Javascript, then we moved onto AJAX-type of constucts (that basically compile down to Javascript, like Coffeescript does), then we were a Flash shop for our frontend, and now moving on to HTML5. Our business layer was Java EE, but now a lot more Java/Spring. Hell, I was a COBOL programmer through the 90's. I personally don't get my hands as dirty in the code as I used to; moved on more to project leadership... gettting too old to learn a new language every year.

[Ares]

Yeah, there was a time when we did a lot of Javascript, then we moved onto AJAX-type of constucts (that basically compile down to Javascript, like Coffeescript does), then we were a Flash shop for our frontend, and now moving on to HTML5. Our business layer was Java EE, but now a lot more Java/Spring. Hell, I was a COBOL programmer through the 90's. I personally don't get my hands as dirty in the code as I used to; moved on more to project leadership... gettting too old to learn a new language every year.

C++ is rock solid and stable. :)

Although Microsoft released it's own iteration called C# (C Sharp) to work with it's .NET development framework. I've looked at it, know quite a few guys who develop in it. I just know there's a lot more I can do if I could develop code. I'm basically just a P.C. / Server janitor. I fix shit that gets broken. Yeah I know how it works, but doesn't pay as well as someone who can write the software.

[Santa]

If people can get paid for not working, what is to keep people working who are needed by society? I mean, if you can get paid for doing nothing, then why work at all? I think we can agree that people should be productive and take care of themselves. I am not my brothers keeper, at least not by choice. I am surrounded by people who do no work of any kind and live quite decently. There are many others in my community who's job is based solely upon taking care of their needs. A friend's wife who works for the state as a social worker, actually refers to them as her 'clients'. Clients for Fuck's sake!
Doing nothing is extremely difficult. Nobody does nothing. Everybody does things. Doing things is much easier than not doing things. Doing things for pay? Well, that's something different.

If someone makes love, they're a lover. If they fuck for pay, they're a prostitute.

Working for pay is backwards logic. It means placing the love of money before the love of one's work.

We all know where the love of money leads. It leads to all manner of evils.

Money should always follow passion and love for anything worth doing, not the other way around.

I'd much rather live in a house that was built by myself or others who loved housebuilding or carpentry, than by a gang of fucktards who only built the house for a crappy paycheck.

Why do anything if you hate doing it? Men have been raising children and families for aeons without being paid. Hard work. Endless hours. No pay... but apparently great reward.

The idea that money be used as incentive toward good works is entrenched into the social construct, but it's completely wrong. It's a construct devised by the ruling elite.

They want us to follow money. They want us to have allegiance to it. They want us to believe in it, to worship it. It turns those who actually "make" money, the banksters (the Rulers) into demigods. Lords of the world.

People don't "make" money. They exchange their labor for a bond. They go into bondage. The exact opposite of freedom.

[palani]

People don't "make" money. They exchange their labor for a bond. They go into bondage. The exact opposite of freedom.

There is a method to this madness.

http://i41.tinypic.com/syt6o4.jpg

Take the application of TIME as an example. The state makes it very clear that Central Standard Time is the time that is to be kept within this state. They even put this stipulation in the SOVEREIGNTY section of their code. My time is different because I choose to be independent. In my time, 6 a.m. is sunrise, 6 p.m. is sunset and when the sun is overhead that is noon. My time is the time of nature and does not result in a sudden discontinuity in time (a singularity) that is called the International Date Line, where you can change the day by 24 hours simply by moving a few inches.

Your employer is going to make it clear that you show up at the time he appoints or not at all. He has made you dependent upon his time (aka the time of this state).

[Horn]

I've gotten Windows 7 migration and deployment down to where 1 person can deploy literally thousands of workstations with as little as 2-3 minutes per boot-up. Put in the machine name, and domain it's going to belong to launch the rest of my customization scripts, package it, and done. Most of it is written in batch but I easy could of done it in python.

As an esteemed colleague of yours, I would like to receive these services for one Quark.

[Hitch]

Quote from this article. Link these two statistics together for the big picture...

1) Only 59% of working age Americans have jobs.

2) One recent study by academics at Oxford University suggests that 47% of today’s jobs could be automated in the next two decades.

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21594298-effect-todays-technology-tomorrows-jobs-will-be-immenseand-no-country-ready

[Ares]

As an esteemed colleague of yours, I would like to receive these services for one Quark.

Sure I'll take a Quark coin. What are looking for? You wanting a mass deployment? Or just a quick capture / redeploy if something goes wrong with you're current PC?

[Ares]

Quote from this article. Link these two statistics together for the big picture...

1) Only 59% of working age Americans have jobs.

2) One recent study by academics at Oxford University suggests that 47% of today’s jobs could be automated in the next two decades.

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21594298-effect-todays-technology-tomorrows-jobs-will-be-immenseand-no-country-ready

Hitcher,

Yep I've seen it, and thankfully know how to do automation so that I do have a job. I do feel bad for the people my scripts and automation do replace. I spoke to a guy who said he was going to continue learning and look into software development. I see that is a viable job going forward as they don't have a machine (yet) that can think.

[Hitch]

Hitcher,

Yep I've seen it, and thankfully know how to do automation so that I do have a job. I do feel bad for the people my scripts and automation do replace. I spoke to a guy who said he was going to continue learning and look into software development. I see that is a viable job going forward as they don't have a machine (yet) that can think.

I used to work in IT many years ago, and I understand. With IT, you have to keep your skills sharp and continue learning to stay above and be marketable. That was my problem, so I switched careers. Back then we used a program called Ghost that allowed us to build a workstation from scratch just by putting in a floppy disk (if you remember those days).

Now, my work situation is somewhat different. Working in the maritime industry, the Coast Guard keeps adding more licensing restrictions that makes it harder for folks to actually be qualified for all the jobs out there. I'm currently trying to upgrade my captain's license and add a few more certs as well, and they have had my application for almost 2 months now. I'm jumping through hoops trying to get it all figured out, what a mess of red tape to deal with.

[Ares]

I used to work in IT many years ago, and I understand. With IT, you have to keep your skills sharp and continue learning to stay above and be marketable. That was my problem, so I switched careers. Back then we used a program called Ghost that allowed us to build a workstation from scratch just by putting in a floppy disk (if you remember those days).

Now, my work situation is somewhat different. Working in the maritime industry, the Coast Guard keeps adding more licensing restrictions that makes it harder for folks to actually be qualified for all the jobs out there. I'm currently trying to upgrade my captain's license and add a few more certs as well, and they have had my application for almost 2 months now. I'm jumping through hoops trying to get it all figured out, what a mess of red tape to deal with.

Yep I started with Ghost. Back when it was actually a damn good imaging product... lol Now... Here's all the imaging utilities I'm familiar with. Ghost, Altiris, Imagex utilizing Windows PE (Pre-execution Environment), Microsoft SCCM with or without PXI (pronounced Pixie), and even old Windows WDS using RIS (Remote Installation Service) SmartDeploy etc.

So I've kept up on machine imaging and how to go about automating the process so that someone who has no idea how to do it, can just plug in a USB, boot up to a PXI service, or external hard drive boot to my per-defined image and just answer a few questions and using sysprep will configure the machine to the user or companies preferences.

[Horn]

Sure I'll take a Quark coin. What are looking for? You wanting a mass deployment? Or just a quick capture / redeploy if something goes wrong with you're current PC?

I have over 100 programs installed on 3 different hard drives, I'd like to retain them all without re-installation.

Considering migrating my old machine to a cloud somewhere, then operating it remotely from a port on a new machine.

[Ares]

I have over 100 programs installed on 3 different hard drives, I'd like to retain them all without re-installation.

Considering migrating my old machine to a cloud somewhere, then operating it remotely from a port on a new machine.

100 programs installed on 3 different computers? Do you have the installation sources? Getting a cloud machine up and running is pretty easy and simple. The difficult part will be getting the source installations to move it over to your cloud.

Microsoft Azure has hosted virtual machines you can use.

http://www.windowsazure.com/en-us/solutions/infrastructure/

All depends on what you're wanting the hosted machine to do or provide will determine cost. Storage, Ram, availability all get factored in. EC3 is free for a year at Amazon, but it's more of a web service.

[Shami-Amourae]

I'm a computer geek like you guys, but I'm mostly on the art end of things. I am not a very strong programmer since my brain has never thought like that. What I'm curious about is what jobs will become more scarce: The programmers/scripters or the computer artists?

[Ares]

I'm a computer geek like you guys, but I'm mostly on the art end of things. I am not a very strong programmer since my brain has never thought like that. What I'm curious about is what jobs will become more scarce: The programmers/scripters or the computer artists?

There will always be art, video games. CGI in video games and movies. etc. So definitely a field that won't be going away anytime soon. Programmers and scripters are good for the mid term. Long term it's hard to say. I posted a link earlier about google working on machine learning. What use do you have for programmers / scripters if there is a machine that can learn what you want it to do?

[Shami-Amourae]

There will always be art, video games. CGI in video games and movies. etc. So definitely a field that won't be going away anytime soon. Programmers and scripters are good for the mid term. Long term it's hard to say. I posted a link earlier about google working on machine learning. What use do you have for programmers / scripters if there is a machine that can learn what you want it to do?

I was thinking of learning Python, but really I'm probably best sticking with continuing to master Blender and learn 3D printing. I want to start a second business right now very badly.

[vacuum]

I was thinking of learning Python, but really I'm probably best sticking with continuing to master Blender and learn 3D printing. I want to start a second business right now very badly.

You could probably use python or lua to do some scripting of some of the more mundane tasks related to generating the art. I believe lua is used a lot for scripting within larger programs, and I think it's the defacto scripting language for video games.

What type of business are you looking to start?

[Ares]

I was thinking of learning Python, but really I'm probably best sticking with continuing to master Blender and learn 3D printing. I want to start a second business right now very badly.

I used this site to teach myself Python.

http://www.codecademy.com/

It's VERY informative, interactive and will tell you why something didn't work right in the code to give you an idea on what to change to make it to work. It's extremely helpful in learning to code. I wish they did it for C++.

[Sparky]

This is why our current approach to "solving the employment problem" is all wrong. It ignores the fact that it only takes half the population to do all the work that needs to be done to maintain our standard of living.

Imagine an island of 100 people, where 10 people were so productive that they could do all of the work. What would happen? The remaining 90 people would be at the mercy of those 10. And not necessarily by their own fault. The 10 would have two choices:

1) Let the other 90 die off, while they pro-create, and provide for their descendents.
2) Enrich the society by subsidizing a mechanism for the 90 to become contributors in some fashion.

This is where we are at now I think. In essence, the government is pretending to play the role of the intermediary trying to "enrich" society. But they don't really give a shit. Instead, they choose to simply transfer wealth from the productive to the unproductive, with no requirement of contribution from the unproductive. They view this as sufficient to maintain their power, and avoid a revolt.

[Cebu_4_2]

This is where we are at now I think. In essence, the government is pretending to play the role of the intermediary trying to "enrich" society. But they don't really give a shit. Instead, they choose to simply transfer wealth from the productive to the unproductive, with no requirement of contribution from the unproductive. They view this as sufficient to maintain their power, and avoid a revolt.

They make you participate by tax and regulations that you can not comply with. Take your company off shore and you are good. This happened in the 90's and everyone followed suit because there was no option... biatch.

EDIT: add 20 years......

[Hitch]

This is why our current approach to "solving the employment problem" is all wrong. It ignores the fact that it only takes half the population to do all the work that needs to be done to maintain our standard of living.

Imagine an island of 100 people, where 10 people were so productive that they could do all of the work. What would happen? The remaining 90 people would be at the mercy of those 10. And not necessarily by their own fault. The 10 would have two choices:

1) Let the other 90 die off, while they pro-create, and provide for their descendents.
2) Enrich the society by subsidizing a mechanism for the 90 to become contributors in some fashion.

This is where we are at now I think. In essence, the government is pretending to play the role of the intermediary trying to "enrich" society. But they don't really give a shit. Instead, they choose to simply transfer wealth from the productive to the unproductive, with no requirement of contribution from the unproductive. They view this as sufficient to maintain their power, and avoid a revolt.

The only thing missing from this is the 1 guy who prints the money they define as "wealth" on the island.

[woodman]

This is why our current approach to "solving the employment problem" is all wrong. It ignores the fact that it only takes half the population to do all the work that needs to be done to maintain our standard of living.

Imagine an island of 100 people, where 10 people were so productive that they could do all of the work. What would happen? The remaining 90 people would be at the mercy of those 10. And not necessarily by their own fault. The 10 would have two choices:

1) Let the other 90 die off, while they pro-create, and provide for their descendents.
2) Enrich the society by subsidizing a mechanism for the 90 to become contributors in some fashion.

This is where we are at now I think. In essence, the government is pretending to play the role of the intermediary trying to "enrich" society. But they don't really give a shit. Instead, they choose to simply transfer wealth from the productive to the unproductive, with no requirement of contribution from the unproductive. They view this as sufficient to maintain their power, and avoid a revolt.

Actually, on this crazy island, it is the 10% who are at the mercy of the other 90% who can vote to themselves, via corrupt politicians, the transfer of wealth from the productive to the non-productive.

[Horn]

he difficult part will be getting the source installations to move it over to your cloud.

http://www.windowsazure.com/en-us/solutions/infrastructure/

Interesting, so does this also work for device dependent applications somehow?

Each concurrent Windows environment available has been more and more difficult to manage critical info. seems they just try and prolong their lifespan anymore. I was disappointed when they hid operating files in XP... 7 tries to use some sort of reverse operating logic like Facebook programming, and calls it more user friendly, when all it does is make a large pile of shit info. look even more like a large pile of shit info.

[singular_me]

according to this video, at 26secs, we already have the technology to create 49% unemployment overnight worldwide. A big loud bang is coming. They obviously are refraining themselves.

universal basic income is the ULTIMATE TRAP as it means rationing of all kinds. Even PMs cannot survive this


Major Firm Announces It’s Replacing Its Employees with A.I.
3 April 2017 GMT
Automated Money Managers

It was only a matter of time before the impact of robots and automation would start having an effect on the white-collar workforce. Case in point: BlackRock, Inc, the world’s largest money manager, just announced that it plans to transition toward automated solutions.
https://futurism.com/major-firm-announces-its-replacing-its-employees-with-a-i/


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SV6bKri_2Ao

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SV6bKri_2Ao