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mick silver
8th March 2014, 02:57 PM
EU gets tougher on Russia, but is Germany putting brakes on stronger sanctions?The EU froze trade and visa talks with the Kremlin over Russia's intervention in Ukrainian Crimea. But whether further sanctions are implemented depends on Germany.http://l.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/9wbaEXbcXRRDysfz1j3RkA--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7Zmk9Zml0O2g9Mjc-/http://media.zenfs.com/en_us/News/logo/csmonitor/csm_logo_115.jpg (http://www.csmonitor.com/)By Sara Miller Llana | Christian Science Monitor – Fri, Mar 7, 2014nt




y Ukraine's political elites (http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2014/0307/Russia-and-the-West-are-both-being-played-by-Ukraine-s-political-elites?s=yaho)




The European Union (http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/European+Union) took its biggest step yet in protestingRussia (http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/Russia)'s military intervention in Ukraine (http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/Ukraine)’s Crimea, by suspending talks with Russia on visa and economic agreements Thursday.
But the bloc fell short of matching US asset freezes and bans on travel for individual Russians, most likely due to the resistance of one country: Germany.
The EU's European Council announced in a statement that it wasfreezing talks with Russia (http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/eu-leaders-weighing-sanctions-russia-22795279?singlePage=true) on a wide-ranging economic agreement and on granting Russian citizens visa-free travel within the EU, reports the Associated Press.
RECOMMENDED: How much do you know about Ukraine? Take our quiz! (http://www.csmonitor.com/World/2013/1202/How-much-do-you-know-about-Ukraine-Take-our-quiz)

The council also threatened harsher actions, including "travel bans, asset freezes, and the cancellation of the EU-Russia summit" if Russia fails to de-escalate the situation in Ukraine. The statement added that any move by Russia to aggravate tensions would have “severe and far reaching consequences (http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/en/ec/141372.pdf).”
EUROPE STEPPING UP
Overall, the EU has taken a new, harsher tone in a crisis described as the most serious in Europe in a century. The Economist notes that the specificity of sanctions had until now just been vague threats (http://www.economist.com/blogs/charlemagne/2014/03/eu-russia-and-ukraine).

Until the evening of March 5th, when foreign ministers were meeting in Paris to try to set up (a) contact group, it seemed unlikely the Europeans would move so far.… But Russia’s action is forcing EU leaders to set aside their qualms. As one diplomat put it, more than one leader came to the summit thinking their task was to defend their economic interests from the threat of sanctions, and left thinking the security of Europe was at stake.
But Europe’s inability to go as far as the US, which imposed visa restrictions on individual Russians, highlights the divergent views within the 28-nation bloc over how to deal with Russia.
Some countries in the EU see Russia and its vast energy industry as opportunity: Russia is thethird-largest trading partner (http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/countries/russia/) of the EU and the EU is the largest trading partner of Russia, according to the European Council. But to others along the bloc's eastern border and who view it through a post-Soviet lens, Russia is still a threat.
Still, even among those who are wary of the Kremlin's motives and want harsh sanctions, the EU response is stronger than originally anticipated.
“Not everyone will be satisfied with the decision, but I should say that we did much more together than one could have expected several hours ago," said Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, according to the AP, after the emergency meeting yesterday.
British Prime Minister David Cameron agreed, hinting that countries are overcoming their hesitation to take Russia on.
"Of course there are consequences for Britain if you look at financial services. Of course there are consequences for France if you look at defense. Of course there are consequences for some European countries if you look at energy," he said. But he said the EU had to take tough action to counter what he called "the most serious crisis in Europe this century."
GERMANY'S BRAKE
Meanwhile, German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned that if Russia continues to spark tensions, “then we will see a far-reaching change in our relationship with Russia, which can also include a broad array of economic measures,” she said. "We don't wish for that to happen."
Still, some say that her wish – that nothing should happen – could be playing too large a role in Germany's diplomacy. Poised to be the biggest power broker for Europe in the debate, Germany is the reason, some experts say, that the EU hasn’t reacted more sternly. Instead, it has pushed for a dialogue over confrontation – part of its tradition of “ostpolitik” with the East since the cold war.
"Germany is the main brake (http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hPwif9E45ngmzmEtnRedxMK-IX1Q?docId=ea0ef9ea-f03f-467c-bd3c-17f8a7c4f0f5&hl=en) on a tougher stance toward Russia," Stefan Meister of the European Council on Foreign Relations told the Agence France-Presse. "What we see at the moment is the limits of German influence on Russia, the limits of the collaborative approach that Germany has maintained for many years."
A new poll showed that Germans largely support (http://stream.wsj.com/story/latest-headlines/SS-2-63399/SS-2-474688/) Berlin's stance on Ukraine. Only 38 percent of those polled want to impose sanctions on Russia, according to the survey carried out by Infratest Dimap for German public broadcaster ARD.
Nearly three-quarters of Germans want to provide financial support to Ukraine, while 62 percent want to up the political pressure on Russia.
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Read this story at csmonitor.com (http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Security-Watch/terrorism-security/2014/0307/EU-gets-tougher-on-Russia-but-is-Germany-putting-brakes-on-stronger-sanctions)

mick silver
8th March 2014, 02:59 PM
Russia and the West are both being played by Ukraine's political elitesUkrainian political elites have repeatedly tried to fob off their failures onto Moscow and the West, while extorting maximal support from both. The West must make any cash handouts conditional on meeting protesters' demands for democratic reforms.
By Emily Holland (letters@csps.com), Commentary contributor, Rebecca R. Friedman (letters@csps.com), Commentary contributor / March 7, 2014


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Vitali Klitschko, former heavyweight boxing champion and Ukrainian leader of UDAR party (right), former Ukrainian foreign minister Petro Poroshenko (center), and French philosopher and writer Bernard Henri-Levy arrive for a meeting with French president Francois Hollande at the Elysee Palace in Paris March 7.
Christophe Ena/AP

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BERLIN AND NEW YORK

Ukraine (http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/Ukraine) is teetering on the brink of disaster, once again drawing the West and Russia (http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/Russia) into diplomatic conflict. But as pundits and policymakers debate the appropriate Western response to the showdown inCrimea (http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/Crimea) – and raise the specter of a renewed cold war – they would do well to recognize the responsibility of the Ukrainian elite for the present East-West showdown.


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Gallery Monitor Political Cartoons (http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Monitor-Political-Cartoons)



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Ever since the fall of the Soviet Union, Ukrainian politicians have played the West and Moscow (http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/Moscow) against each other to extort maximal support from both sides. Consequently, a stable Ukraine is unlikely to emerge from the recent protests unless domestic political development takes precedence over geopolitical brinkmanship. Indeed, it would be a serious mistake to allow saber rattling to drown out the message of Ukraine’s EuroMaidan protesters whose public demonstrations sparked a revolution and set off the current turmoil between the West and Moscow.
QUIZ: How much do you know about Ukraine? (http://www.csmonitor.com/World/2013/1202/How-much-do-you-know-about-Ukraine-Take-our-quiz)

Ukrainian politicians have repeatedly attempted to fob off their own failures onto Moscow and the West. The trade union skirmish that ignited the EuroMaidan protests was simply the latest example. Because neither Moscow nor the West could afford to “lose Ukraine,” Ukrainian elites have played each side against the other while extracting rents from both since the early 1990s.
Unfortunately, virtually none of the goodies made their way to the people or the state. The pockets of the elite are well lined – as ousted Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych (http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/Viktor+Yanukovych)’s Mezhyhirya estate extravagantly demonstrated (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/ukraines-president-open-to-early-vote-polish-leader-says-scores-reported-killed-in-clashes/2014/02/21/05d3de46-9a82-11e3-b931-0204122c514b_story.html) – but Ukraine’s economy is on the brink of default.
While the courage of Ukrainian citizens and activists is laudatory, many of Ukraine’s opposition leaders were also deeply complicit in the creation of its corrupt and shaky political system. Opposition leader Arseniy Yatsenyuk, businessman and former Foreign Minister Petro Poroshenko, and, most of all, previously jailed opposition leader and former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/23/tymoshenko-release-centre-stage-ukraine-soap-opera) seek to absolve themselves from any responsibility by placing the blame for Ukraine’s problems on Mr. Yanukovych. However, Yanukovych was only one of many corrupt politicians who contributed to more than two decades of divisive, venal, and contentious politics that led to the tragic violence in Kiev last month.
In addition to the problem of an almost entirely inbred political class, Ukraine’s problems are exacerbated by decades as the focal point of East-West geopolitical rivalries. But make no mistake: This position is one Ukraine has repeatedly sought out. While not premeditated, the present showdown is the logical outcome of Kiev’s precarious balancing act.
Washington and Brussels have become so carried away with a neo-cold-warrior mentality that competition with Moscow is now the predominant policy consideration. Western capitals are practically tripping over themselves to outbid the Kremlin with generous offers of economic aid: The European Union (http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/European+Union) has offered a$15 billion aid package, (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/06/world/europe/ukraine.html?_r=0) with the United States dangling (http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/03/04/fact-sheet-international-support-ukraine) an additional $1 billion in loan guarantees and technical support. While much of the aid is contingent on Ukraine’s new leadership concluding a deal with the International Monetary Fund, a large portion of the funds could reach Ukraine in the coming weeks. Thus, while the long-term economic reforms required for IMF funds are a good start, technical support and minor institutional reforms will be insufficient to reshape Ukrainian political culture.
If the West is serious about fostering a stable Ukraine, it should use this opportunity to not only “win” Ukraine, but to inaugurate a new political elite that is pro-EU and capable of running the country without the repeated assistance of Russia or the EU and the US.
While Ukrainian politics remain in flux, the West has an important chance to push for much-needed reforms. But the window of opportunity is closing quickly. In a policy attributed to Ms. Tymoshenko, the nascent Ukrainian government is already installing wealthy oligarchs (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/03/world/europe/ukraine-turns-to-its-oligarchs-for-political-help.html) to take key positions as governors in the eastern provinces of the state. Installing wealthy businessmen with ties to corrupt past regimes is only likely to perpetuate the cycle of ineffectual Ukrainian politics.
In the short term, rebuilding Ukraine may entail some cooperation between the West and Russia. Russian state natural gas conglomerate Gazprom has substantial leverage (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-02/russia-gas-threat-shows-putin-using-pipelines-to-press-ukraine.html) over the Ukrainian and European economies, and while Moscow’s actions are deplorable, many on-the-ground observers (http://www.rferl.org/contentlive/clashes-in-ukraine-live-blog-kyiv/25267783.html) report that Russian control of the Crimea is likely irreversible. If the Ukrainian government is unwilling to let the region go, the West should seek a compromise with Russia and push for a federal system that will allow for greater regional autonomy for Crimea – and continued presence of the Russian Black Sea fleet – while still upholding Ukrainian sovereignty.
Ultimately, no sum of money will be sufficient to firmly anchor Ukraine in either the Eastern or the Western camp. Moreover, to hand out cash without demanding political reforms would perpetuate the dynamics that brought the country to the brink, while also breeding greater internecine resentments among Ukrainians.
QUIZ: How much do you know about Ukraine? (http://www.csmonitor.com/World/2013/1202/How-much-do-you-know-about-Ukraine-Take-our-quiz)

Instead, the West must play the long game in Ukraine by listening to the EuroMaidan protesters’ demands for more transparent and effective democratic institutions. Enabling the country to regain its political and economic footing, with Brussels and Washington conspicuously leveraging carrots rather than sticks to set Ukraine on a course of true democratization, is the best way to welcome a stable Ukraine into the West.
Emily Holland is a visiting fellow at the European Council of Foreign Relations in Berlin and a doctoral candidate in the political science department at Columbia University. Rebecca R. Friedman is a visiting scholar at Columbia University and doctoral student in the government department at Georgetown University.
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