old steel
9th July 2014, 11:57 AM
It likely begins with a sovereign default, or the disclosure that a mega-bank such as J.P. Morgan or Deutsche Bank is over-exposed and is being “downgraded”. The details of the igniting event are unimportant, believe it or not, once the ball starts rolling.
Now, the excessive inter-dependence of all the principal financial entities takes over, as each is thrown off balance while attempting to “manage” its exposure to the failing entities securities. Bump, bump, bump – like a wave, the risk is distributed through the complex financial fabric, finding every weakness, every error, ever undisclosed liability. The exponential leverage of risk upon risk suddenly becomes visible to everyone, and causes fears of a full-on default. Once this fear hits the news, the institutional investors (401.k, IRA, and pension funds) will try to get out of their risk positions immediately, even at a major loss.
Prices of the tainted assets will plummet. The natural drag down effect of the market will hurt even healthy entities in the same markets, as banks and fund managers sell and shuffle to cover. Now, real failures are made, as the market takes a dive and margins are called in a cascade of risk-management triggers which have been haphazardly built-in over the years. This is the Iceburg. Not only can such a thing sink a Titanic, it can cause a tsunami.
An iceburg melts from the bottom up, because water conducts heat much better than air. At some point in time, the “tip of the iceburg” becomes too heavy, and it shifts suddenly and violently to a new position in the water. Markets are the same – a lot of money can be lost “below the water line” before the iceberg flips, but when it does it will disrupt and destroy anything in its vicinity, and ultimately will sit lower in the water after such an event. The tsunami is catastrophic inflation, and the ultimate disposition, the iceberg sitting lower in the water, is the final deflationary stabilization at corrected market values.
When this happens, expect the following to occur, and swiftly -
1. The use of money, as we know it today, will be suspended at a minimum, but more likely, our familiar currencies will cease to represent any real buying power. The first phases of this have, in fact, been happening for decades. It began with the mass flight of nations from the Gold Standard which was all but complete in the 1970s. It will culminate with a great and sudden flipping of the iceburg as the various unstable systems of promissory notes and debt-based economies implode in short order. Your bank account will be void overnight, and debit and credit cards will cease to work. The actual paper currency you hold will also lose most of its value as the demand for real goods explodes. Fear will blossom into panic, and everything will be bought up while cash still has some value.
2. A paycheck is worthless if it cannot be cashed, and most people do not have the trust and resolve to ‘work for nothing’, so many services we rely on will go dark over a period of a week or less: Grocery store shelves will empty and not be replenished; gasoline and other petroleum products will cease to flow, and even basic utilities such as electricity, water, and sewer may become intermittent, and/or fail all together. Police, Fire, and EMS services will be drawn back to the most meager levels, and will likely not be available at all in many areas for a period of time.
3. Because of #1 and 2, above, riots will explode, starting in the urban core, and spreading outward into suburbia. Do not imagine that civility will win the day – rather, it will be among the first casualties. Likely even the quietest and most politically correct will shed their social skins and revert to savagery when they perceive that they and their children may starve; when they realize that every single one of their expectations for tomorrow have evaporated over night, never to be seen again. Satisfaction of immediate needs will be the only law, and violence the final authority in most populous places. As a response, martial Law will be imposed in the cities and larger suburban areas, extending as far out as there is functioning government to enforce it.
4. With profound privation and exploding violence will come a great diaspora from the cities. The absence of food, comfort, and safety will drive people from urban centers like a bomb blast, commencing as little as 24 hours after the iceberg flips; and certainly, within a week, the living population of nearly every urban center will have decreased by ~75%. Some urbanites will die where they lived, but sadly, far more will die along the routes of our freeways and interstate highways. Their lives will run out along with their gas tanks and meager trunk-loads of food, water, and other supplies. The force of this human blast will extend deeply into heavily developed suburban communities, thus forcing a second wave of flight, as suburbia is overrun with desperate urbanites searching for a safe haven which no one has prepared for them. With the loss of financial backing and essential infrastructure, nearly all personal communications mediums will cease to function. Most broadcast radio and television stations will also fall silent.
5. After two to four weeks, the dust will begin to settle, and those still alive will begin to clean up their neighborhoods, and to establish provisional security agreements in the hopes of securing their communities, and beginning to rebuild. At this point, some 25 to 50 million Americans will have passed into eternity. Less than 5% will have ben given a proper interment, and disease will be the next horror to face.
6. After 3-4 weeks, the military and NGO relief workers, fanning out from the urban centers, will begin trying to clean up and to reinstate order, using a carrot and stick method. They will try to move the population into centralized “shelters” where it will be easier to feed the multitude and provide other services. All that you will have to do is surrender your personal supplies of food, water, and medicine to gain entry. Firearms will all be confiscated “for everyone’s safety”. If you refuse their offered shelter and food, they will still insist on confiscation of your guns and other choice bits of your property. They always do; Hurricane Katrina gives a clear and present example.
7. Another 50-100 million people will die between weeks 4 and 40, due to malnutrition, disease, exposure, and continued violence. In the more rural areas, barter and community markets will begin to fulfill at least some of people’s daily needs. Martial Law will become so well instated that those in power will become reluctant to even attempt the restoration of civil society, [as if they would let such a grand emergency go to waste] and a resistance movement will become evident.
Read the whole thing - [link to ncrenegade.com (http://www.godlikeproductions.com/external?http%3A%2F%2Fncrenegade.com%2Funcategoriz ed%2Fwhat-is-coming-and-what-we-must-do%2F)]
Now, the excessive inter-dependence of all the principal financial entities takes over, as each is thrown off balance while attempting to “manage” its exposure to the failing entities securities. Bump, bump, bump – like a wave, the risk is distributed through the complex financial fabric, finding every weakness, every error, ever undisclosed liability. The exponential leverage of risk upon risk suddenly becomes visible to everyone, and causes fears of a full-on default. Once this fear hits the news, the institutional investors (401.k, IRA, and pension funds) will try to get out of their risk positions immediately, even at a major loss.
Prices of the tainted assets will plummet. The natural drag down effect of the market will hurt even healthy entities in the same markets, as banks and fund managers sell and shuffle to cover. Now, real failures are made, as the market takes a dive and margins are called in a cascade of risk-management triggers which have been haphazardly built-in over the years. This is the Iceburg. Not only can such a thing sink a Titanic, it can cause a tsunami.
An iceburg melts from the bottom up, because water conducts heat much better than air. At some point in time, the “tip of the iceburg” becomes too heavy, and it shifts suddenly and violently to a new position in the water. Markets are the same – a lot of money can be lost “below the water line” before the iceberg flips, but when it does it will disrupt and destroy anything in its vicinity, and ultimately will sit lower in the water after such an event. The tsunami is catastrophic inflation, and the ultimate disposition, the iceberg sitting lower in the water, is the final deflationary stabilization at corrected market values.
When this happens, expect the following to occur, and swiftly -
1. The use of money, as we know it today, will be suspended at a minimum, but more likely, our familiar currencies will cease to represent any real buying power. The first phases of this have, in fact, been happening for decades. It began with the mass flight of nations from the Gold Standard which was all but complete in the 1970s. It will culminate with a great and sudden flipping of the iceburg as the various unstable systems of promissory notes and debt-based economies implode in short order. Your bank account will be void overnight, and debit and credit cards will cease to work. The actual paper currency you hold will also lose most of its value as the demand for real goods explodes. Fear will blossom into panic, and everything will be bought up while cash still has some value.
2. A paycheck is worthless if it cannot be cashed, and most people do not have the trust and resolve to ‘work for nothing’, so many services we rely on will go dark over a period of a week or less: Grocery store shelves will empty and not be replenished; gasoline and other petroleum products will cease to flow, and even basic utilities such as electricity, water, and sewer may become intermittent, and/or fail all together. Police, Fire, and EMS services will be drawn back to the most meager levels, and will likely not be available at all in many areas for a period of time.
3. Because of #1 and 2, above, riots will explode, starting in the urban core, and spreading outward into suburbia. Do not imagine that civility will win the day – rather, it will be among the first casualties. Likely even the quietest and most politically correct will shed their social skins and revert to savagery when they perceive that they and their children may starve; when they realize that every single one of their expectations for tomorrow have evaporated over night, never to be seen again. Satisfaction of immediate needs will be the only law, and violence the final authority in most populous places. As a response, martial Law will be imposed in the cities and larger suburban areas, extending as far out as there is functioning government to enforce it.
4. With profound privation and exploding violence will come a great diaspora from the cities. The absence of food, comfort, and safety will drive people from urban centers like a bomb blast, commencing as little as 24 hours after the iceberg flips; and certainly, within a week, the living population of nearly every urban center will have decreased by ~75%. Some urbanites will die where they lived, but sadly, far more will die along the routes of our freeways and interstate highways. Their lives will run out along with their gas tanks and meager trunk-loads of food, water, and other supplies. The force of this human blast will extend deeply into heavily developed suburban communities, thus forcing a second wave of flight, as suburbia is overrun with desperate urbanites searching for a safe haven which no one has prepared for them. With the loss of financial backing and essential infrastructure, nearly all personal communications mediums will cease to function. Most broadcast radio and television stations will also fall silent.
5. After two to four weeks, the dust will begin to settle, and those still alive will begin to clean up their neighborhoods, and to establish provisional security agreements in the hopes of securing their communities, and beginning to rebuild. At this point, some 25 to 50 million Americans will have passed into eternity. Less than 5% will have ben given a proper interment, and disease will be the next horror to face.
6. After 3-4 weeks, the military and NGO relief workers, fanning out from the urban centers, will begin trying to clean up and to reinstate order, using a carrot and stick method. They will try to move the population into centralized “shelters” where it will be easier to feed the multitude and provide other services. All that you will have to do is surrender your personal supplies of food, water, and medicine to gain entry. Firearms will all be confiscated “for everyone’s safety”. If you refuse their offered shelter and food, they will still insist on confiscation of your guns and other choice bits of your property. They always do; Hurricane Katrina gives a clear and present example.
7. Another 50-100 million people will die between weeks 4 and 40, due to malnutrition, disease, exposure, and continued violence. In the more rural areas, barter and community markets will begin to fulfill at least some of people’s daily needs. Martial Law will become so well instated that those in power will become reluctant to even attempt the restoration of civil society, [as if they would let such a grand emergency go to waste] and a resistance movement will become evident.
Read the whole thing - [link to ncrenegade.com (http://www.godlikeproductions.com/external?http%3A%2F%2Fncrenegade.com%2Funcategoriz ed%2Fwhat-is-coming-and-what-we-must-do%2F)]