Serpo
7th September 2014, 11:03 PM
Ukraine truce represents a triumph for Putin Analysis: If the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk are left in rebel hands, then Vladimir Putin's effort to freeze the conflict on his terms will be nearing success http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03028/putin_3028965b.jpg Russian President Vladimir Putin waves to people in the city of Gorno-Altaisk, Siberia, on September 4 Photo: AP
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02071/David-Blair_60_2071880j.jpg (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/journalists/david-blair/)
By David Blair (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/journalists/david-blair/), Chief Foreign Correspondent
6:39PM BST 05 Sep 2014
The ceasefire agreement in eastern Ukraine (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/) represents not a retreat but a triumph for President Vladimir Putin.
Only a few weeks ago, his allies in the country seemed on the verge of defeat. The pro-Russian insurgents were losing town after town to a determined counter-offensive by Ukraine’s army.
After months of hesitation and setback, Ukrainian forces seemed close to recapturing the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk and crushing the rebellion. The insurgents faced the prospect of being surrounded and besieged in the two local capitals.
Then Mr Putin hit back, deploying at least 1,000 Russian combat troops in eastern Ukraine along with tanks, self-propelled artillery and other armoured vehicles. By striking over the border and advancing towards the port city of Mariupol, a Russian column opened a new front and drew Ukraine’s forces away from the last rebel strongholds.
At a stroke, Mr Putin’s intervention saved his friends from possible defeat. In the process, he forced Petro Poroshenko, the Ukrainian president, back to the negotiating table.
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The result is the 14-point ceasefire agreement signed on Friday, which seems designed to freeze the conflict.
If so, pro-Russian gunmen will be left in control of both Donetsk and Luhansk, along with the territory in between. Together, these two cities have a combined population of 1.5 million and the surrounding area holds Ukraine’s industrial heartland and much of the country’s coal reserves. Leaving them in rebel hands would be a bitter pill for Mr Poroshenko to swallow.
The text of the agreement has yet to be released, but Russia had earlier insisted that Ukrainian forces must withdraw to beyond artillery range of Donetsk and Luhansk. If implemented, this would lift the military threat to the rebels and allow them to continue ruling both cities unchallenged.
What about Russia’s own forces? Mr Putin maintains that no Russian troops or tanks have entered Ukraine, so he will presumably refuse to promise any withdrawal of the very units which, on his account, do not exist.
The danger for Mr Poroshenko is that the status quo, whereby Russian troops are in Ukraine and the rebels are masters of two cities and a swathe of valuable territory, will persist indefinitely. If so, Mr Putin will have succeeded in freezing the conflict on terms favourable to Russia. If he also escapes any further European Union sanctions, his victory would be complete.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11077871/Ukraine-truce-represents-a-triumph-for-Putin.html
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02071/David-Blair_60_2071880j.jpg (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/journalists/david-blair/)
By David Blair (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/journalists/david-blair/), Chief Foreign Correspondent
6:39PM BST 05 Sep 2014
The ceasefire agreement in eastern Ukraine (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/) represents not a retreat but a triumph for President Vladimir Putin.
Only a few weeks ago, his allies in the country seemed on the verge of defeat. The pro-Russian insurgents were losing town after town to a determined counter-offensive by Ukraine’s army.
After months of hesitation and setback, Ukrainian forces seemed close to recapturing the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk and crushing the rebellion. The insurgents faced the prospect of being surrounded and besieged in the two local capitals.
Then Mr Putin hit back, deploying at least 1,000 Russian combat troops in eastern Ukraine along with tanks, self-propelled artillery and other armoured vehicles. By striking over the border and advancing towards the port city of Mariupol, a Russian column opened a new front and drew Ukraine’s forces away from the last rebel strongholds.
At a stroke, Mr Putin’s intervention saved his friends from possible defeat. In the process, he forced Petro Poroshenko, the Ukrainian president, back to the negotiating table.
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The result is the 14-point ceasefire agreement signed on Friday, which seems designed to freeze the conflict.
If so, pro-Russian gunmen will be left in control of both Donetsk and Luhansk, along with the territory in between. Together, these two cities have a combined population of 1.5 million and the surrounding area holds Ukraine’s industrial heartland and much of the country’s coal reserves. Leaving them in rebel hands would be a bitter pill for Mr Poroshenko to swallow.
The text of the agreement has yet to be released, but Russia had earlier insisted that Ukrainian forces must withdraw to beyond artillery range of Donetsk and Luhansk. If implemented, this would lift the military threat to the rebels and allow them to continue ruling both cities unchallenged.
What about Russia’s own forces? Mr Putin maintains that no Russian troops or tanks have entered Ukraine, so he will presumably refuse to promise any withdrawal of the very units which, on his account, do not exist.
The danger for Mr Poroshenko is that the status quo, whereby Russian troops are in Ukraine and the rebels are masters of two cities and a swathe of valuable territory, will persist indefinitely. If so, Mr Putin will have succeeded in freezing the conflict on terms favourable to Russia. If he also escapes any further European Union sanctions, his victory would be complete.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11077871/Ukraine-truce-represents-a-triumph-for-Putin.html