COMEX Silver WILL DEFAULT in 4 Days

[old steel]

So if i can count right that would make it this coming Thanksgiving. Something to be truly thankful for.



The open interest for Dec. contracts is now at 61,763. Multiply that by 5000ozs of physical silver and you get around 300,000,000 ozs.
4 days left till the fireworks start. Average loss of contracts per day is around 4000.
4 days left so we take 4k x 4 days.
16k reduction in OI.
Thats about 45000 left standing.
That is 225,000,000 ozs of silver that has to be delivered.
There is roughly 60 million ozs in Comex.
Comex will default for the first time in history For silver.
This is the highest amount standing for silver prior to options expiry week.
enjoy the fireworks.
facts about numbers can be found in comex wrbsite under silver futures

Harvey Organ- By December Whole Thing Going to Collapse

Read more at http://investmentwatchblog.com/comex-silver-will-default-in-4-days/#ms0ce0L02Jcqugh8.99

[mick silver]

what are you drinking , do you have anymore . are do you have some medical pot

[old steel]

what are you drinking , do you have anymore . are do you have some medical pot


Don't shoot the messenger mick.

[mick silver]

been hearing this for 20 years now ...... I need a nap

[steyr_m]

what are you drinking , do you have anymore . are do you have some medical pot

I've been hearing of shortages, defaults, "to the moon" for more than a few years. It is going to happen, but it will happen when it happens. I'm not going to listen to investors either.....

[StreetsOfGold]

I've been hearing of shortages, defaults, "to the moon" for more than a few years. It is going to happen, but it will happen when it happens. I'm not going to listen to investors either.....

Most likely when it is not expected

[Serpo]

Its only a flesh wound............

[Serpo]

Talk about going out on a limb...............



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aZwSiHBxm0c#t=10

[Hatha Sunahara]

I recently got two emails from friends regarding this topic. One of them had a link to an interesting article that provided the large picture of what is happening. Here:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/grandmaster-putins-golden-trap

And the other, on equally, or more interesting one looking at the situation from Western eyes is here:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/authors/bill-holter



Is COMEX being cornered?

Bill Holter (http://www.gold-eagle.com/authors/bill-holter)



November 23, 2014






It is with a deep sense of gratitude that I have had all of you as friends and associates during what has been a long war, not a good war, but a very long "financial war". As you know from these writings; this has been a war conducted by the Federal Reserve against the entire world, aided and abetted by major international banks via the manipulation of most every market on the planet. The ethics and morals our country was originally built on ...be damned!

The events mentioned herein relative to the suppression of gold and silver using dollar hegemony as the tool indicate a major international monetary crisis is dead ahead, this is obvious. Power in the hands of the few have made massive gains for those at the top of the economic ladder while the average man has become a debt slave to the few. There are of course the laws of Mother Nature and "unintended consequences". Those at the top who intend to "rule the world" are being challenged from the East in what I believe to be almost a winner take all "war". It did not have to be this way but the "West" has forced this.

I have never written "this is my most important writing ever!" but that day has now come. So many events have all aligned at once which point to something very bad happening, very soon. In fact, "very soon" could be as soon as the Monday following this Thanksgiving. We saw many different events unfold over this past week which I believe are all connected in one way or another, I will try to connect them for you. That said, please understand that we are and have been in a financial war for many years now. This "war" is one between the East and West where the West's paper financial system which has been in control for so many years is seeing its power wane. It is this "wane" of the West versus the rise of the East that I believe is now, finally, coming to head.

If you recall, we had two Fridays in a row where gold and silver prices were smashed early in the overnight hours and into the morning, only to turn around violently and close very strongly for the day and the week. This action is called an "outside reversal day" which over the years has been an extremely rare event in the precious metals. It has been rare in precious metals because it was not "allowed". When I say "allowed", please remember that COMEX is a paper exchange where possessing metal is not necessary to sell gold or silver. All you have to have is "money" to post as margin and you are allowed to sell as many contracts as you have margin for. There are "limits" to how many contracts one can buy or hold, these limits do not seem to have been enforced on the sell side ...JP Morgan's short position in silver as an example.

So we had two outside reversal Fridays in a row, this was followed by the action this past Wednesday. 80 tons of gold was sold over a 15 minute timespan which knocked gold down $20 in the blink of an eye. Please see the chart below courtesy of Dave Kranzler of IRD.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/sites/default/files/holter112314-1.jpg (http://www.gold-eagle.com/sites/default/files/holter112314-1.jpg)

80 tons! Let me put this in perspective. 80 tons is equal to two weeks worth of global gold production ...sold in just 15 minutes! This is nearly 2.8 million ounces. The interesting thing is that COMEX only claims to have 865,000 ounces of gold available for delivery so more than 3 times the amount of ounces were sold in 15 minutes than is even claimed as available for delivery! What followed however was the real stunner, very shortly afterward gold dug in its heels and started to recover ...recover to unchanged in price! Do you see the importance here? Though this was not another outside reversal day, it may have been even more important. The "paper" market absorbed two weeks worth of production in just 15 minutes without breaking! I'll get back to this shortly and tie it in to the rest.


If you recall, I wrote a piece back in August entitled "Kill Switch" where I put forth a hypothesis that the high and rising open interest in silver was actually the Chinese via proxies cornering the silver market. The huge open interest in the nearby contract rolled out to the December contract. At that point, the open interest in gold was at multi year lows as one would expect with prices down. This has changed, just over the last 4-6 weeks, the open interest has steadily built in gold ...while continuous pressure still on the price. Before going any further, I have never seen the open interest rise to multiyear highs while the price was pushed to multi year lows in ANY commodity. This is truly an anomaly and one that looks like it could be resolved very shortly.

This coming Friday is the 1st notice day for both Dec. COMEX gold and silver contracts. COMEX in my opinion has a potentially huge problem where a default in both contracts is a distinct possibility! As of this pastFriday, 61,763 contracts still open, this represents 308 million ounces of silver. The COMEX claims a registered (deliverable) inventory of just under 65 million ounces. With only four days left there are roughly 5 silver ounces contracted for every one ounce available!

The situation in gold has quietly become much worse than silver, there were 162,509 Dec. gold contracts open which represent over 16 million ounces of gold. The "registered" (deliverable) category at the COMEX inventory shows only 868,910 available to deliver! Do you see the problem here? There are only 4 days left until this contract goes into the delivery process, yet there are 20 ounces contracted for each ounce available! I have one other amusing thought for you, remember the 80 tons sold in 15 minutes last Wednesday? This was almost 2.8 million ounces compared to a deliverable inventory of just 869,000 ounces, in my opinion, "FRAUDULENT" in capital letters!

Yes I understand, there are still four days left for the open interest to bleed down and roll out to the next contract month but we now stand in totally uncharted territory. Never in the past has this much open interest been still outstanding with deliverable inventory as low as it is. It is also astounding that total open interest could have risen to these levels while the price dropped. For open interest to increase and the price to drop, the "initiation" to the opening of contracts has obviously been done by sellers. This is exactly what I have been saying all along, the dropping price has been dictated by paper sales of COMEX contracts ...but now there is a problem. So much paper has been sold to dictate the price that the contracts outstanding simply dwarf the available metal to deliver. Put another way, COMEX gold and silver look like they have been cornered! We will know shortly if this is true and "who" did the cornering. I suspect we will find out that this has been a Chinese/Russian hand holding consortium and one that was carefully planned and done within legal bounds. I think we will find out they in fact did play by the West's rules and it was the "sellers" of nonexistent metal who fell into their own price fixing trap. It has been a financial war, one that was declared by the West and looks to have been possibly won by the East.

Another huge event this past week was the surprise announcement by Holland of their repatriation of 122.5 tons of gold from the FRBNY (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-21/gold-repatriation-stunner-dutch-central-bank-secretly-withdrew-122-tons-gold-new-yor?page=2).

I have many questions about this transaction and very few answers. We may or may not ever get some of the answers but here is what I'd like to know. Was the gold which was delivered the "original" gold that was deposited? Same serial numbers and hallmarks? If not, where did it come from, who refined and processed it? And when? One must also wonder why the Germans did not get their promised gold? Did Holland work out a deal prior to the German request? Or is this a case of the Dutch "smelling smoke" and quietly exiting the theatre before anyone else? Other questions might include whether or not any of this gold was of Ukrainian origin and now what might happen in the derivatives markets? Remember, derivatives outstanding are probably in the range of 100-1 versus the real metal, taking 122 tons of "collateral" away could affect 12,200 "tons" of paper derivatives. With the leverage factor, this is equal to better than 4 years worth of global production and could affect close to $1/2 trillion worth of paper contracts! While on this subject, prior to the Dutch news, GOFO rates were at almost record backward levels. Has this come about because 122 tons of "collateral" was withdrawn from the pool? Just thinking out loud here...

Other notable events this past week were many. First, Congress began questioning the banks on "manipulating the commodities markets (https://ca.news.yahoo.com/u-banks-grilled-over-commodities-201738559.html)," and the Federal Reserve leaking inside information to Goldman Sachs, is the timing of this a coincidence? Also, president Obama unilaterally has now thrown our borders open, is it possible that the long spoken of "Amero" is really in the works? One necessity to a North American currency unit would be open borders right? Again, just thinking out loud. We also heard Russia announce a decline to import ANY GMO food products from the West for at least 10 years. They also announced the import of another 55 tons of gold for the quarter for good measure while ISIS announced their intent to use gold and silver as money.



To tie all of this up, let me say that I believe the very long anticipated "market corner" of precious metals may possibly and finally be at hand. Contrary to what happened back in the late 1970's with the Hunt brothers in silver, the current "corner" was actually facilitated by the sellers. The Hunt's in fact did set out to corner silver, I don't believe the Chinese/Russian/Indian alliance initially set out to do this ...they were "forced to."

You see, we have been in a "financial war" for years, the U.S. has trod heavily on the rest of the world financially. We settled our grotesque annual trade deficits by sending freely created dollars as payment. In order to support the dollar and keep interest rates low, we have suppressed the prices of gold and silver. Without low metals prices, none of the other markets could ever make any sense. PE ratios could never be at the current levels without low interest rates, interest rates could never be at these low levels if gold and silver were shooting upward ...so the rest of the world has played the only card they could to prevent a World War, a financial card.

They "carried" us and let the game go on and on as they accumulated bigger and bigger stacks of gold. Much of this gold "was once" Western gold. They have legally purchased it and in many cases sent our own dollars back to us as payment. Now, we will sit with lots and lots of dollars while they have lots and lots of gold. I believe they have now cornered both COMEX gold and silver if they choose to stand for delivery. They will say "hey, we did not make up the rules, you did. You sold us contracts, we bought and paid for them. Now we would like the contract settled, please send us our metal". This was all legal and they did not step up with the intent of busting the market, they simply "bought what we were selling". If they do stand for delivery, can they be faulted if they ask for the contract they paid for to perform?

Let me finish by saying this, we very well may wake up after Thanksgiving "fat and happy" only to find out the entire financial system was a fraud. The East, by asking for delivery may in a "polite" way expose the entire game. This would accomplish much, first, the dollar will no longer be the reserve currency and the U.S. will no longer be able to trade "something for nothing". It will also hamper our ability to financially and militarily put our thumb on the rest of the world. If we became hampered financially, this would also make military operation much more difficult to fund or pay for. In essence, if I am correct and we do see failure to deliver and a COMEX default ...the world may be a safer place! This past week for example, president Obama secretly extended our stay in Afghanistan, how will this operation be funded by a bankrupt Treasury and a central bank that issues unwanted currency? The Chinese/Russians in my opinion may be on the verge of winning a war without ever firing a shot and playing the game by our own rules! We clearly have been the aggressors in both Syria and then in funding a coup in Ukraine. Could crashing our financial markets be a way to put us on a financial leash and thus lessen our abilities at aggression? I am sure this thought process has already been discussed.

Regards, Bill Holter













Hatha

[Jerrylynnb]

Maybe the Chinese and Russians are not yet ready for a showdown? Couldn't they renegotiate these mature contracts, not for delivery, but for partial delivery (say half of available COMEX) and the rest in futures contracts (3-6 months), but on much more favorable terms for them and with side bets that hamper the west's military plans (in the Ukraine and Syria and Iraq, etc). That way, nobody outside those intimate with the metals markets would even know anything happened - but, the west would be surrendering a future position to a lesser advantage (militarily) for a 3-6 month lease on life, as it were. Perhaps the east is figuring on being able to match the west militarily in another 6 months, but are not ready to go toe-to-toe just now, since they are sure to have a better advantage in 6 months.

If this makes sense, you could see the COMEX seemingly continuing as usual, but, the harsh terms to the west for a 6 month lease would not be publicized, except for offbeat articles leaked for non-standard publications. Just saying, these end-of-the-era predictions have a way of being early, even though the logic is solid, the timing is off when the winning players can gain advantage by slipping the final confrontation a bit. We might not see anything spectacular for the rest of this year and the first half of next year, if the winning eastern players are savvy and work the system to their advantage while they build up their military to be equal to, or better than, that of the west.

[Serpo]

I was going to say dont hold your breath , but this is hold your breath stuff, dont hold your breath on that.

[expat4ever]

Talk about going out on a limb...............



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aZwSiHBxm0c#t=10
Yea I saw this video a few months back or so. 2 months ago at least. There's some flaws to his reasoning. 1 that I remember off the top of my head was he said china would unleash the 3-4 trillion in treasuries and destroy the dollar because the US didnt return 6 billion in silver LOL.

I'm also pretty certain that there's a clause in the futures contracts that allow them to be paid off in dollars in the event of a default. Not sure on that but I thought I had heard that in the past.

[Hatha Sunahara]

The Putin Article here:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gr...ns-golden-trap (http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/grandmaster-putins-golden-trap)

says that the dollar has already been reduced to an intermediary form of exchange. If the Russians and Chinese sell their products for dollars and immediately buy discounted gold on the Comex, they are trading their stuff for gold. The bankers know this, and they are scared shitless of the consequences of what they have done. Their bluff is going to be called when the Chinese demand physical gold, and they don't have it. Jim Willie laid out this scenario in his latest interview, but he wouldn't pin a timeframe for when this 'default' will come. Harvey Organ did some simple calculations and came up with December, which starts a week from today. I'm trying to imagine now how the MSM is going to spin this story. I don't expect them to tell the truth about what the banksters have been doing in the gold and silver markets. They are certainly not going to tell Americans that their manipulations have resulted in most of the western gold going to Russia and China. I expect that by the end of January gold will be at around $2000, and oil will be at over $120 a barrel. I'm also trying to come up with a time when we'll see the introduction of Jim Willie's 'scheiss dollar'. My guess now is that we'll see that no later than next June. All the preppers will be patting themselves on the back. The down side will be the FEMA camps for the unprepared masses.

Hatha

[Glass]

I believe, from what I have seen, they are trying to secure a large tranche of gold. When I say a lot, I mean many times what it currently in certified "existence". There is a couple of groups that seem to be in a tussle over this. It also looks like it is being used as a honey pot, pulling in people with a large wealth base. Several Arabs with mind boggling wealth and some others in Europe. I don't think they know exactly where the gold is stored and are trying to flush it out. Once a deal is done, the gold needs to be mobilized. That's when they can pinpoint it.


Yea I saw this video a few months back or so. 2 months ago at least. There's some flaws to his reasoning. 1 that I remember off the top of my head was he said china would unleash the 3-4 trillion in treasuries and destroy the dollar because the US didnt return 6 billion in silver LOL.

I'm also pretty certain that there's a clause in the futures contracts that allow them to be paid off in dollars in the event of a default. Not sure on that but I thought I had heard that in the past.

Futures contracts are one thing but Gold Bonds are another. I don't think that China accepts futures contracts in payment of obligations.

[expat4ever]

No they wont accept contracts but they hold many of the long contracts. thats his speculation nyway. If they try to redeem those contracts for physical they will be paid off with dollars. I just dont see them destroying the US relationship over 6 billion in silver which is what he is implying.

[chad]

harvey organ has been saying the comes is going to blow up "next week" going on 7 years.

[gunDriller]

harvey organ has been saying the comes is going to blow up "next week" going on 7 years.

there is a clause in the CME contract that allows them to resolve a settlement dispute with cash.

CME has a lot of cash.


what Harvey is saying is that the Chinese will 'stand for delivery'.

to know what that means, i guess we'd have to have a copy of the contract they signed.

which won't happen.

[aeondaze]

Even if the Chinese/Russians/east decide to settle a large contract with cash alarm bells will ring loud enough to be heard all around the globe.

I can see how they would've written such a clause into their contracts for particular events, but to use it when the crimex is effectively bankrupt defeats the purpose of having a physical market in the first place and exposes it for the charade we all believe it to be.

Its not so much the default itself which will break the crimex's back, its the loss of confidence and discovery of its fraudulent practices that will destroy it eventually.

Sure, they can keep the charade going, buy only if participants have a degree of confidence in its mechanisms.

[gunDriller]

Its not so much the default itself which will break the crimex's back, its the loss of confidence and discovery of its fraudulent practices that will destroy it eventually.

Sure, they can keep the charade going, buy only if participants have a degree of confidence in its mechanisms.

I can't keep up with the alphabet soup of defaults.

ABN Amro, 1Q 2013, right before the April 12-15 initiation of the raid/ "strong dollar policy work" that we see the effects of in Nov. 2014.

MF Global. $1 Billion in commodities accounts vaporized. that will put a damper in PM trading. even Gerald Celente lost about $100K - that he had earmarked for a PM purchase.

etc. etc. etc.


the whole charade of money printing, lying about inflation while costs of living skyrocket, is quite entertaining.

even the Holohoax is entertaining, in a bad way.

[Hatha Sunahara]

Jim Willie explains it really well. Here:

http://gold-silver.us/forum/showthread.php?80278-Jim-Willie&highlight=Willie


Hatha

[steyr_m]

Most likely when it is not expected

That's my point...

[Twisted Titan]

They will pull another rabbit out of their @$$ I can guarantee it.

At this juncture it is more profitable to let this collapse under its own weight rather then forcing the hand of someone.


Its kinda of like us on this site.

As long aa you are aware that the music is going to stop....you will gladly (and quickly) exchange those invisble digits on a screen for real good and services

When the hammer falls all of us will have a amazing amount of power and the mulitutude that got caught with their pants down will pay a heavy price for food, shelter, clothes and comfort items

[Serpo]

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1417009632.php



http://news.goldseek.com/PeterCooper/1417010291.php


http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1417024169.php

[Cebu_4_2]

Only one more day, did they mention a time and will it be EST?

[old steel]

Well like Serpo pointed out, they sold 80 tons of paper gold into the futures market.




http://www.quickmeme.com/img/0e/0e5c64ca39428a3329f9fb70233caa6fdeb8eecc87a7ecf75a 10b5ccbf635892.jpg


On that note.

http://blog.milesfranklin.com/is-comex-being-cornered

[Serpo]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yPZjITfsHok#t=2252

[gunDriller]

maybe it's like Constipation.

Comex just needs some Metamucil.


actually, i think we could have a Metamucil backed currency - and it would make more sense than what we have now.

[Neuro]

It will be settled in paper this time. For how much? I dont know but I wouldn't be surprised if some contracts are settled at $25 or more., 50-70% above spot, a couple of years ago those levels appeared to be the bargain of a lifetime... LOL Silver is weird once you think you have figured it out it instantly or over time proves you wrong, I don't think we have seen the bottom yet... Not heard anyone whining ablut shortages yet. Certainly they could paper over a few more deliveries of silver, and suppress the price further... The cost will be greater by a magnitude every time you do it though. Eventually the market would realize that physical silver is indeed way more precious than usd faux spot pretends it to be. Short term though it will probably go down more.

[Cebu_4_2]

Short term though it will probably go down more.

That's fine by me, need to reload the powder.

[steyr_m]

They will pull another rabbit out of their @$$ I can guarantee it.

At this juncture it is more profitable to let this collapse under its own weight rather then forcing the hand of someone.

Agreed. There are some [unfortunately] very intelligent people at the helm running the show. They know what can happen if everything is lost [default] and are prepared. I believe the Swiss Referendum will have more of an effect.

I guess we'll see soon if all fails.

[optionT]

Well then, this Thanksgiving should be interesting!

[Hatha Sunahara]

Agreed. There are some [unfortunately] very intelligent people at the helm running the show. They know what can happen if everything is lost [default] and are prepared. I believe the Swiss Referendum will have more of an effect.

I guess we'll see soon if all fails.

Do you think the Swiss Referendum vote won't be rigged?

Hatha

[expat4ever]

Is 4 days up yet?

[steyr_m]

Is 4 days up yet?

No kidding. Now we need to wait for the Swiss vote

[gunDriller]

Do you think the Swiss Referendum vote won't be rigged?

Hatha

given what someone did to persuade Paypal to shut down the donations page ... that bespeaks desperation.

(of course, selling 20 or 100 tons of Gold or Silver that you don't have, reeks of desperation too.)


i've been checking articles about the poll for the Swiss Gold Vote -
https://www.google.com/#q=poll+for+the+Swiss+Gold+Vote


it's running behind in the polls.

according to the polls, it will be voted down.


if that comes to pass (voted down), i think they will be selling a lot more paper Gold & Silver to knock the prices down on Monday morning.

i wouldn't be surprised if that is the 'cycle low', Silver knocked into the $14's briefly, just like Feb. 2010.


i have a feeling that in 14 months (Feb 2010 to April 2011), we will be seeing the effects of price manipulation.

shortages that inspire minor buying that triggers a big herd of spec money coming into Ag.

[mick silver]

did it happen I am just getting up from my nap

[optionT]

Lets see what happens Sunday or maybe 6 months from now.

[expat4ever]

At these levels I am a buyer. I dont care if they keep it low for years. I am and will be a buyer. IMO the downside is limited from here and the upside is unlimited.

[mick silver]

dam don't tell people about my plan to buy all I can get at they lows then I can corner the silver market ....
At these levels I am a buyer. I dont care if they keep it low for years. I am and will be a buyer. IMO the downside is limited from here and the upside is unlimited.

[Spectrism]

I think China is burning the candle at both ends. They will buy contracts for metals and maybe even settle for cash buyouts.... only to snap up more mining companies! When they control the mines, it matters not what the paper contracts say.

[Cebu_4_2]

I think China is burning the candle at both ends. They will buy contracts for metals and maybe even settle for cash buyouts.... only to snap up more mining companies! When they control the mines, it matters not what the paper contracts say.

Where are they buying mining companies?

[Spectrism]

Where are they buying mining companies?

Everywhere?

Chinese Firms Snap Up Mining Assets
http://online.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052748703724104575379203283575596
By Phred Dvorak


Updated July 20, 2010 12:01 a.m. ET


In the global hunt for mining assets, China has emerged as the buyer to beat: Just a few years after suffering high-profile failures to close big acquisitions, Chinese buyers of all sizes are sealing more sophisticated deals at a higher rate of success.

Companies based in China or Hong Kong participated in $13 billion of outbound mining acquisitions and investments last year—100 times the level in 2005, according to data tracker Dealogic.
China-based companies are on a similar pace in 2010. Last week, Shandong Iron & Steel Group Co. announced a $1.5 billion investment into an African Minerals (http://online.wsj.com/public/quotes/main.html?type=djn&symbol=AMI.LN) Ltd. iron-ore project in Sierra Leone, the latest of 76 outbound mining deals announced by China-based buyers so far this year, valued at $8.3 billion, according to Dealogic.
China's hunger for metals and minerals will be a principal driver in boosting its overall outbound investment to more than $100 billion in 2014, predicts Derek Scissors, a Heritage Foundation researcher who has built a database to track those deals.
China's success in snapping up makers of iron ore, nickel, molybdenum and other minerals has come as much of the world smarted from the global financial crisis. In 2009, China accounted for one-third of the value of all crossborder mining mergers and acquisitions, up from 7.4% in 2007 and less than 1% in 2004, Dealogic found.
In Australia, historically a major destination for Chinese mining investments, Chinese acquirers accounted for nearly 40% of all inbound mining deals last year, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers annual review of mining M&A. In Canada, a newer market for Chinese buyers, the number was around one-quarter.

http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/OB-JH842_CHINAM_D_20100720223225.jpg

The latest deals introduce a new class of suitors.
In years past, Chinese buyers of overseas oil and ore assets tended to be big, state-owned enterprises that favored outright takeovers and got reputations for ham-handed deal making—suffering a series of public rejections, such as China Minmetals Corp.'s failed attempt to buy Canadian miner Noranda Inc. in 2005.
These days, potential investors range from private manufacturers to Hong Kong investors to China's sovereign-wealth fund, China Investment Corp. China deal trackers say those investors are savvier and more flexible than they were a few years ago, experimenting with joint ventures and minority stakes.
Just a year ago, Hong Kong-based CST Mining Group (http://online.wsj.com/public/quotes/main.html?type=djn&symbol=0985.HK) Ltd. was China Sci-Tech Holdings Ltd., a 15-person Hong Kong public company investing principally in real estate. Earlier this year, it bought two copper miners for $380 million—one Canadian, one Australian—hired a bunch of Western mining veterans to run them, raised $600 million through a private share placement and changed its name to CST Mining Group Ltd.
Chinese investors are finding "more and more kinds of ways to get business from the world,'' says Amy Cheng, CST's banker and the mining-team leader for BOC International, the investment banking arm of state-owned Bank of China Ltd.
Ms. Cheng estimates Chinese mining investors were successful last year at closing around three-quarters of the deals they attempted; a few years ago, she says, they were rebuffed nearly all of the time. The financial crisis provided an opening.
"Every project [that wants money] looks at Chinese companies," she said.
The Chinese government hasn't made a public push for these acquisitions, but the explosion of deals in recent years, many by state-owned companies, suggests they are a priority.
China already consumes one-third of the world's copper and 40% of its base metals, and produces half of the world's steel. Though demand for commodities has eased a bit as the pace of China's growth has slowed this year, it is expected to stay strong in the long term.
China has complained that foreign companies have charged too much for iron ore and other commodities, a concern that became acute in 2007 when the world's No. 1 miner, BHP Billiton (http://online.wsj.com/public/quotes/main.html?type=djn&symbol=BHP) Ltd. , attempted to buy Rio Tinto (http://online.wsj.com/public/quotes/main.html?type=djn&symbol=RTP) in a deal that promised to create a united minerals supplier with enormous pricing power.


The bid failed, but shortly afterward China made what remains its biggest overseas acquisition in minerals, Chinalco's $14 billion purchase of 9% of Rio Tinto. Buoyed by that investment, Hong Kong and Chinese firms conducted a record $17.5 billion in outbound mining M&A in 2008, according to Dealogic.
China's buying binge could eventually increase the global supply of many minerals and ores, says Tim Goldsmith, the Australia-based global mining leader for PricewaterhouseCoopers, who says his job now requires him to spend a week every month in China. If China's demand stays strong, and other economies like India's grow rapidly as well, the added supply could help to temper commodity-prices rises, he says.
Weaker global demand could lead to a drop in prices, a scenario Mr. Goldsmith calls less likely. Big global miners should make out well either way, he says, since their mines tend to be more profitable, with higher expected returns, than those many Chinese firms are investing in.
Some Chinese investors are buying companies with mines that are at earlier stages of development or exploration, a riskier but potentially more profitable proposition.
"There was a time when they wouldn't invest in anything that wasn't producing already,'' says Howard Balloch, a former Canadian ambassador to China who founded a Beijing-based investment-banking boutique, the Balloch Group, in 2001. Now, "the Chinese are willing to be more creative in their investments and willing to move a little up the ladder to higher levels of risk."


That is bringing more would-be Chinese deal makers to Toronto and Vancouver, where much of the world's capital-raising for mining exploration takes place.
"On the Chinese side, it's almost like someone flipped a switch a few years ago and interest went from zero to significant investment in Canadian firms," says David Redford, a Vancouver-based lawyer in the mining practice of Goodmans LLC.
The interest is reciprocal: Mr. Redford estimates some 80% of his current mining clients are looking for investment from Chinese sources. Three years ago, he says, one-third or fewer were.
The Canadian copper miner purchased by CST, Toronto-based Chariot Resources Ltd., found itself looking eastward for investment after its long-time lenders pulled the plug on future financing at the end of 2008, amid the financial crisis. The company had just finished a feasibility study on its copper assets in Peru and needed several hundred million dollars to build a mine. But Western bankers weren't willing to lend to a company with no revenue or operations, says Ulli Rath, the CEO at the time.
In October 2009, Chariot's board decided to put the company up for sale.


The firm hired RBC Capital Markets, the investment banking arm of Royal Bank of Canada (http://online.wsj.com/public/quotes/main.html?type=djn&symbol=RY), to look for suitors. On the side, one of Chariot's directors also phoned some contacts in China: BOC International's Ms. Cheng, and a private adviser named Ken Wang, a Chinese geologist who had worked for years in Canada. Mr. Wang had helped broker three other deals between North American miners and Chinese investors in the past two years.
Ms. Cheng had started BOC International's mining group in Hong Kong in 2005; she knew all the big Chinese investors as well as the state-owned mining firms. Within a month, Ms. Cheng and Mr. Wang had arranged meetings between five potential investors and Chariot directors in Hong Kong.
The most aggressive suitor was CST, which was just starting to transform itself into a mining operator. Last year, the company had bought a gold mine in Indonesia from struggling Australian miner Oz Minerals (http://online.wsj.com/public/quotes/main.html?type=djn&symbol=MSC.AU) Ltd. , and hired former Rio Tinto executive Owen Hegarty to run it.
CST directors wanted to jump into copper mining as well, and saw Chariot as a good entry, says Mr. Hegarty, who's now vice chairman of the company. In February, CST proffered an all-cash bid of around C$245 million—67 Canadian cents per share. That's double what Chariot had been trading at a few months before on the Toronto Stock Exchange, and a better deal than other offers collected by RBC Capital Markets, says Mr. Rath, who stepped down in June when the deal closed.
RBC Capital Markets declined comment.
In March, CST announced the purchase of the Australian copper miner; by the end of June it had raised $600 million through private placements to fund its purchases as well as mine development.

Ms. Cheng hired Mr. Wang in late June to work full-time with her on resource deals.



===========================================

[Spectrism]

13 April 2014 Last updated at 21:06 ET
China group buys $6bn Glencore Peru copper minehttp://www.bbc.com/news/business-27017623
A Chinese consortium is buying Glencore Xstrata's copper mine in Peru in a $6bn (£3.6bn) all-cash deal, marking one of China's largest mining acquisitions.
The consortium is led by MMG Limited and includes China's Citic Metal.
The acquisition is subject to regulatory approvals but all parties expect the deal to be done by the end of September.
Analysts expect Glencore to use the proceeds from the sale to reduce its debt.
The mine is expected to produce more than 450,000 tonnes of copper a year in its first five years.
China relies heavily on the metal, which is used in electronics production.

======================


Is This The Start Of China's Gold Miner Buying Spree? http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/pictures/picture-5.jpg (http://www.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden)
Submitted by Tyler Durden (http://www.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden) on 09/23/2013 23:51 -0400
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-23/start-chinas-gold-miner-buying-spree

Back in October of 2012, Hugh Hendry proposed a simple investment thesis (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-25/hugh-hendry-i-have-no-idea-where-stock-market-going-be-am-long-gold-and-short-sp): '"I am long gold and I am short gold mining equities. There is no rationale for owning gold mining equities. It is as close as you get to insanity. The risk premium goes up when the gold price goes up. Societies are more envious of your gold at $3000 than at $300. And there is no valuation argument that protects you against the risk of confiscation. And if you are bullish gold why don’t you buy gold ETFs, gold futures or gold bullion." Since then, anyone who listened to Hendry has made a substantial double digit return (yes, one can make double digits returns on gold even when gold is sliding: such is the "magic" of long gold, short GDX pair trades). However, following a massive, 50%+ selloff, there comes a time when even gold miner stocks become attractive to those with deep pockets filled with reserve fiat. For someone like China, that time may be now. The WSJ reports (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303983904579093512405948546.html)t hat China's largest gold company, China National Gold Group Corp., has talked to Ivanhoe Mines "about buying a stake in or asset from the company."



It is unclear where talks stand, but, if completed, such an investment would mark another step into international markets for the Beijing-based miner and further Chinese investment in African mining. It could also entail Mr. Freidland's taking on a major international partner not long after he lost control of a major mining company to London-listed giant, Rio Tinto PLC.
The WSJ adds (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303983904579093512405948546.html)"on Monday, Toronto-listed Ivanhoe said it is selling $100 million worth of stock at $2 a share, a sharp discount to Friday's closing price of $2.56. The stock fell 11% as investors digested news of the dilution and analysts said that the total falls short of the money that Ivanhoe needs to raise. In a release Ivanhoe said that it is in discussions with a number of international, private and state-owned mining companies about raising further funds through investments in its projects and the company. "Ongoing talks could lead to the formation of a significant strategic corporate partnership or syndicate for continued exploration and development of the company's discoveries and associated infrastructure," Chief Executive Lars-Eric Johansson said Monday. A spokesman for the company declined to comment on whether it had held talks with China National Gold."


It probably had: while we have reported previously (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/beijing-conference-see-how-china-quietly-took-over-africa)how over the past few years, China quietly but purposefully taken over Africa and its resources, we have still to find any indication that China was willing to spend any nominal amount of fiat to begin procuring gold miners - a step, which if and when confirmed, would rejuvenate the gold mining sector to an extent not seen in years. Suddenly China would become the buyer of first, and last, resort, and following a year long plunge in GDX, the long awaited surge would finally arrive over "fears" which gold miner would be taken over by China next.



Ivanhoe Mines has projects to mine copper and zinc in the Democratic Republic of Congo and gold, nickel and copper in South Africa.

Though China National Gold focuses on gold projects, it has looked at different arrangements with Ivanhoe, according to one of the people familiar with the matter. That included, at one stage, taking a stake in Ivanhoe or taking over one part of its operations, that person said.

China National Gold is also talking to other companies, including several who operate in Africa, another person familiar with the matter said. Last year, the company was in talks with Barrick Gold Corp. to buy its stake in African Barrick Gold PLC but pulled out in January.

...

China National has already bought one company from Mr. Friedland, when an earlier incarnation of Ivanhoe Mines sold a controlling stake in Jinshan Gold Mines Inc. in 2008.
The big question then, the one that everyone has wanted an answer to, is the following: is Ivanhoe the proverbial toehold that China wishes to establish in Africa, and in gold. Because the two go hand in hand. And if indeed China is finally in an expansionary phase, one which will see to acquire not only gold, but gold miners, first in Africa and then everywhere else, which other massively oversold gold miner will the likes of China National Gold go after? The answer is still unknown.
What is known is that China has and continues to important unprecedented amounts of gold. If indeed China is so intent on sequestering all the world's physical gold, surely it is only a matter of time before it begins to purchase the very miners of production. Especially since countries hostile to US-based miners, in a world in which US geopolitical influence is rapidly waning, may prove quite supportive of Chinese equity ownership in a local mine or two.
And how long before the US antitrust commission is brought to the supreme test: will the US or won't it approve a transaction in which none other than China is granted permission to purchase a US-based mining operation.

We may get the answer quite soon.

[Spectrism]

China goes on a mine buying spree TRACY TJADEN

Special to The Globe and Mail
Published Wednesday, May. 18 2011, 6:00 AM EDT
Last updated Friday, Aug. 24 2012, 4:00 PM EDT



http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-business/china-goes-on-a-mine-buying-spree/article580477/

When China Minmetals Corp. backed away from its hostile bid to take over Canadian-Australian mining company Equinox Minerals Ltd. recently, it did not disappear. Its CEO, Andrew Michelmore, told reporters that the $7.3-billion offered up by Toronto-based Barrick Gold Corp. was too rich to counter.
Then, it went hunting for other opportunities.
Armed with trillions in foreign reserves and a mandate to secure natural resources around the world to feed its insatiable domestic engine, the Chinese are on the prowl for deals. And Canadian mining companies may soon be experts in striking them.
China's state-owned enterprises are injecting millions into Canadian mining companies seeking to build out new mines. As a signal of future intentions, this year China Investment Corp., a sovereign wealth fund with $300-billion in assets, opened its first foreign office - in Toronto.
It's boom times for the sellers, who are already basking in sky-high commodity prices that show no sign of falling. But for Canadian bidders coming up against the new investor on the block, these are frustrating times.
"On a lot of the deals we work on here, many of which are international in scope, a looming concern for buyers or investors is that the Chinese, with huge pools of endless capital, will come in and scoop it up," says Dawn Whittaker, global mining leader at the Toronto-based law firm Ogilvy Renault. "There's this feeling that you have to move fast and get what you want before the Chinese come in and trump your bid."
China's explosion onto the global mining scene has shaken up the mergers and acquisition dynamic. The new buyer on the block ponies up straight cash, has a long-term horizon - which typically means greater risk tolerance - and has little interest in running the entire company.
The deal process may be tedious and the questions endless, but that's a mere annoyance.
In fact, Canadian mining companies and the lawyers, accountants and bankers who advise them are structuring deals - and spinning out companies - with Chinese investors in mind.
From copper to molybdenum to potash, China is now one of the world's largest importers of metals and minerals as it struggles to keep up with economic growth from its rapidly expanding middle class. In addition, its huge manufacturing sector supplies corporations around the world.
Industry experts say the Canada-China relationship will only deepen.
"Canada is a great incubator for mining exploration and early-stage mine development, but it takes tremendous capital and investment in R&D to move to the next stage and develop a mine," says Christopher Murray, an M&A lawyer at Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP and head of its China practice. "China can come in and do that. They come in with a much-needed infusion of capital when many of our companies top out."
In 2009, the Chinese government declared that it intended to use its huge foreign exchange reserves, valued at $2.85-trillion, to expand operations overseas, primarily through acquisitions. Chinese officials said they'd focus on buying access to natural resources to fuel China's exploding economy and urbanization.
China's state-owned enterprises (SOEs), sovereign wealth funds and some private companies are not wasting time.
In 2009, CIC invested $1.5-billion for a 17.2-per-cent stake of Vancouver-based Teck Resources Ltd. A month later, the Aluminum Corp. of China picked up Peru Copper Inc., a Canadian miner with assets in South America, for $779-million.
Last year, China's CRCC-Tongguan Investment Co. bought Vancouver's Corriente Resources Inc. for $549-million.
The Chinese deals don't just reflect a brand new source of capital for Canadian miners. They're different in other ways, too, say experts.
First, they're almost always cash deals. China's SOEs and sovereign wealth funds are private and don't have shares to offer. Plus, the government's goal is to diversify a portion of its foreign exchange reserves out of U.S. dollars.
Second, the Chinese, while they have acquired a few companies outright, are more interested in buying specific properties, or taking a minority interest in a company with the goal of securing supply from one of its properties.
There's another difference: Chinese investors typically engage in a more extensive due diligence process than North American bidders. In response, Canadian mining companies in search of cash are catering to China's needs, says Sanjay Joshi, a partner and China expert with Ogilvy Renault in Toronto.
"They're making sure policies and procedures are in place and on paper - ready to be seen when the Chinese hire people to do due diligence," says Mr. Joshi. "The Chinese are more deliberate in how they look at deals and how they decide to pull the trigger."
Fred Pletcher, a partner and head of the national mining group at Vancouver-based Borden Ladner Gervais LLP, says the Chinese SOEs have become a central player in the global mining deal making scene. The industry in Canada, in turn, is responding.
"We've amended our structures and strategic review process to take into account their due diligence, their necessity to obtain internal approvals," says Mr. Pletcher of the mining clients he works with. "We've actually changed our auction and sale processes with China in mind."
This is all good news for miners seeking a cash injection, but troubling for large Canadian companies eyeing the same investments - both here and overseas.
"There's a new competitor out there who plays by a different set of rules and metrics," says Mr. Pletcher. "Their mandate is to secure long-term resources for domestic use in China. They also have financing capabilities that most majors would be envious of."
This competitive disadvantage deepens even further when Canadian majors find themselves bidding against China for exploration properties in developing countries.
"It's what other Chinese organizations are doing in those markets that matters, too," says Mr. Pletcher, who monitors China's efforts in Africa and South America. "Other arms of the state could be doing infrastructure projects, developing roads, working on agriculture projects - and this overall package can be very attractive."
Special to The Globe and Mail

[Spectrism]

China's Secret Vaults: Where Is All The Missing Gold? (http://www.forbes.com/sites/shuchingjeanchen/2014/03/18/chinas-secret-vaults-where-is-all-the-missing-gold/)www.forbes.com/.../chinas-secret-vaults-where-is-all-the-missing-...Forbes


Mar 18, 2014 - Most analysts believe it is clandestine buying by China's central bank, ... This is a practice invented by Chinese mining companies loathe to sell ...



China Buys Glencore Copper Mine Stake - NYTimes.com (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/14/business/international/china-buys-glencore-copper-mine-stake.html)www.nytimes.com/.../china-buys-glencore-copper-mi...The New York Times


Apr 13, 2014 - The $5.85 billion cash deal is one of the biggest mining acquisitions in recent years for China, the world's top copper consumer.



It's Official: China Consumed, Mined & Imported The Most ... (http://www.ibtimes.com/its-official-china-consumed-mined-imported-most-gold-ever-2013-1556182)www.ibtimes.com › Markets / Finance (http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=17&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CEsQ6QUoADAGOAo&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ibtimes.com%2Fmarkets-finance&ei=7G56VOGFOIOqNv-qgdgL&usg=AFQjCNHncwqDrvP6GdyqdWzeJiY8tJ35vA&sig2=x1ShDkT9lzZrH7tWIuV1sA&bvm=bv.80642063,d.eXY) › Gold (http://www.ibtimes.com/markets-finance/gold)International Business Times


Feb 18, 2014 - China is already the world's top producer of gold, mining 437 tonnes in ... at bargain prices, though Chinese buying in the second half of 2013 ...



China miners suffer hangover after buying binge ... (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-miners-suffer-hangover-after-buying-binge-2013-06-21)www.marketwatch.com/.../china-miners-suffer-hangover-af...MarketWatch


Jun 21, 2013 - BEIJING (Caixin Online) — The international mining industry saw mergers and acquisitions slow in 2012. Accounting firm ...



China National Gold's President Says No Longer In Talks ... (http://new.dowjones.com/scoop/china-national-golds-president-says-longer-talks-ivanhoe-mines-african-investment/)new.dowjones.com/.../china-national-golds-presi...Dow Jones & Company


Jun 17, 2014 - China's largest gold-mining company, China National Gold Group Corp., ... had examined buying a stake or operating part of Ivanhoe Mines, ...



China has control of the Gold Price - GoldSeek.com (http://news.goldseek.com/GoldForecaster/1398801600.php)news.goldseek.com/GoldForecaster/1398801600.php
Apr 29, 2014 - China has been a buyer of gold mines across the world. The gold mined there will follow the direct route to China. What this pattern of buying ...










Chinese copper producer buying 50 percent of Turkish ... (http://www.invest.gov.tr/en-US/infocenter/news/Pages/200214-jiangxi-copper-corp-acquires-half-of-turkish-nesko-metal.aspx)www.invest.gov.tr › English (http://www.invest.gov.tr/EN-US/Pages/Home.aspx) › Info Center (http://www.invest.gov.tr/EN-US/INFOCENTER/Pages/Welcome.aspx)
Feb 20, 2014 - Sabah – China's largest copper producer Jiangxi Copper Corporation (JCC) is buying a 50 percent stake in Turkish mining company Nesko ...



Chinese investors warned about African mining risks | South ... (http://www.scmp.com/business/commodities/article/1381796/chinese-investors-warned-about-african-mining-risks)www.scmp.com/.../chinese-investors-warned-a...South China Morning Post


Dec 16, 2013 - Chinese companies are keen to pour money into mining projects in ... a clause that allowed the government to buy 15 per cent of the mine, Pan ...



Renewed estimates of Chinese gold demand - GoldMoney (http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=43&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CC8QFjACOCg&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.goldmoney.com%2Fresearch%2Fan alysis%2Frenewed-estimates-of-chinese-gold-demand&ei=N296VJWDAYKbgwSboIGIAw&usg=AFQjCNEpp0MvQOSNNzWwaWH1hmXU5mXuQg&sig2=iZWvVAGUeWLsMf8qKHCJxw&bvm=bv.80642063,d.eXY)www.goldmoney.com/.../renewed-estimates-of-chinese-gold-...GoldMoney


Apr 4, 2014 - China mines more gold than any other nation and it is generally ... This is inefficient for the refiner, which has to find the capital to buy the doré.

China Gold eager to buy gold, copper mines in Canada ... (http://www.vcpost.com/articles/20383/20140103/china-gold-eyes-copper-mines-canada.htm)www.vcpost.com/articles/.../china-gold-eyes-copper-mines-canada.htm
Jan 3, 2014 - China Gold International, a Vancouver-based gold miner, is interested in acquiring gold or copper mines in Canada, but is not willing to ...

[Cebu_4_2]

Okay I get it lol.

[old steel]

Well China is now officially the worlds #1 economy. That has got to be giving a few of TPTB nightmares.