mick silver
6th February 2015, 05:04 AM
Russia warns US arms to Ukraine will cause 'colossal damage' to ties
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Will NATO Begin to Arm Ukraine Amid Worsening Violence?
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Will NATO Begin to Arm Ukraine Amid Worsening Violence?
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Merkel, Hollande take Ukraine peace plan to Putin (http://news.yahoo.com/hospital-shelled-east-ukraine-calls-mount-truce-030343212.html) AFP
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Moscow (AFP) - Russia on Thursday warned the United States against sending weapons to Ukraine, saying such action would cause "colossal damage" to ties between the former Cold War foes.
Moscow is "seriously concerned" by discussions in the West about possible arms supplies to Ukraine which is battling a pro-Kremlin insurgency, said foreign ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich.
"Without a doubt, if such a decision is realised, it will cause colossal damage to US-Russian relations, especially if the residents of Donbass (Donetsk and Lugansk regions) start to be killed by American weapons," Lukashevich said.
"This would not only threaten to escalate the situation in the southeast of Ukraine, but threatens the security of Russia, whose territory has been repeatedly shelled from Ukraine."
The West has repeatedly accused Moscow of fuelling the insurgency in eastern Ukraine -- where more than 5,000 people have been killed since last April -- with weapons and regular army units, but Russia denies any involvement.
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singular_me
6th February 2015, 08:46 AM
I am just following the headlines of this stand off (all wars have the same patterns) but I feel like it could blow up at some point.
-------------------------------------------
Ukraine to Call Up Women Over 20 for Armed Forces
By Damien Sharkov 2/4/15 at
Ukraine’s armed forces could call up all female citizens of Ukraine aged between 20 and 50 to join the fight against pro-Russian separatists in the country’s eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, Vladislav Seleznev, spokesperson for the armed forces’ high command told Ukrainian news agency Unian today.
http://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-armed-forces-set-call-female-citizens-aged-20-50-new-recruitment-cycle-304276
mick silver
6th February 2015, 09:46 AM
Startling Rise of 'The Colder War'
With Anthony Wile - November 02, 2014
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http://www.thedailybell.com/default/images/icon_feedback.png 63 (http://www.thedailybell.com/exclusive-interviews/35783/Anthony-Wile-Marin-Katusa-Startling-Rise-of-The-Colder-War/#disqus_thread)
Introduction: Marin Katusa is chief energy investment strategy for Casey Research and managing editor for Casey Energy Confidential Casey Energy Report and The Colder War Letter. Katusa's 2014 book, The Colder War (http://www.colderwar.com/), "is a timely and fascinating look at Vladimir Putin's master plan to make Russia a world leader again, and what this could mean for everyone's energy consumption in the decades to come."
Marin Katusa is a regular commentator on BNN and is a member of the Vancouver Angel Forum where he and his colleagues evaluate early-seed investment opportunities. He also manages a portfolio of international real estate projects.
Daily Bell: Marin, The Colder War (http://www.amazon.ca/The-Colder-War-Slipped-Americas/dp/1118799941) is a great book. I took it with me as a companion on a long flight, and I'm glad I did. It's full of geopolitical history and insight, and it's a joy to read.
For the benefit of readers who haven't yet read The Colder War, please tell us what the war is about.
Marin Katusa: Vladimir Putin and his inner circle have set about to restore Russia's influence in the world, perhaps to the point of preeminence. That necessarily entails an attack on US economic and political power.
Like a pincer, Putin's Colder War strategy has two parts. First, exploit Russia's vast natural resources to achieve dominance in all aspects of the energy markets, including production, processing and transport of oil, natural gas and uranium. Make the world, especially Europe and Asia, so reliant on Russia for energy that no country will want to confront Russia about anything.
Second, undermine the U.S. dollar's position as the world's reserve currency. Control of world energy markets would get Putin more than half way to success in dethroning the dollar (which I call the petrodollar, because for the last 40 years it has been the nearly exclusive means for settling international trading in oil). Complete success in dethroning the dollar would be like attacking the U.S. with a financial nuclear weapon.
Daily Bell: We read a lot about alternative energy sources. Is it possible that in ten years the world won't need oil and gas? How about thorium or a Tesla-type energy application? Any of those things would ruin Putin's strategy for the Colder War.
Marin Katusa: Not going to happen, for so many reasons.
Thorium won't replace uranium as feed for power plants for at least 50 years. Thorium makes sense from a "technical" aspect, but the reality is it would cost trillions of dollars to replace the existing uranium infrastructure—it just won't happen. And fusion is nowhere near ready.
New technologies have emerged for exploiting oil, natural gas and uranium that will make it cost-effective to use resources that previously were uneconomic. That trend will continue, and fossil fuels will play a big role in the global economy for at least the next 50 years.
Daily Bell: What about wind and solar power?
Marin Katusa: It's improving, but I always think back to a fact I read years ago, that to have the US powered 25% by solar, the whole United States would have to be covered in solar panels—all of it, the whole nation's land mass. Do I see a future where it will be common for a building's exterior to function as a solar panel—yes, but again, that's decades away.
Daily Bell: Give us a little on Putin's background, going as far back as you can.
Marin Katusa: Vladimir Putin grew up in St. Petersburg, often under the care of his grandfather, who had been the personal chef for Lenin (http://www.thedailybell.com/definitions/params/id/2818/) and then for Stalin (http://www.thedailybell.com/definitions/params/id/2820/). The boy heard some very inside stories. Putin later studied law and became the head of the KGB (http://www.thedailybell.com/definitions/params/id/2816/) in East Germany during the Cold War. Putin saw the collapse of the USSR in real time; he was stationed in East Germany when it occurred.
Then he went back to the University of St. Petersburg and completed a Ph.D. While in St. Petersburg, Putin was mentored by Anatoly Sobchak, the city's major. Putin quickly rose through the political ranks and in 1999, though still little known to the public, became prime minister of Russia under Yeltsin. In that post, Putin became a national hero when under his leadership the Russian Army defeated an army of rebels in Chechnya. Months later, on Dec 31, 1999, Putin became the president of Russia when Yeltsin resigned.
Putin won his first election in 2000, then consolidated his power by taking down the oligarchs, the most famous being Khodorkovsky in 2003. By then, the bull market in oil had started, which gave Putin the revenue to reestablish Russia as a global superpower.
Daily Bell: Is it possible that Putin was groomed for great things right from the beginning because of his family's contacts?
Marin Katusa: No, I don't think so.
Daily Bell: In a rise to power that you trace in The Colder War, in little more than three years, Putin went from the job of Deputy Chief of the Presidential Property Management Department to Deputy Chief of Presidential Staff to First Deputy Chief of Presidential Staff for regions to head of the FSB (http://www.thedailybell.com/definitions/params/id/28231/) (successor to the KGB); became a permanent member of the Security Council of the Russian Federation and then its Secretary; was appointed First Deputy Prime Minister then as acting Prime Minister; then he ran for and won the Presidency of the Russian Federation. Not even Captain Marvel moves that fast. Was there something more to Putin's rise than cunning, drive and luck?
Marin Katusa: Yes. Before Putin, there were five prime ministers who all failed miserably. Putin recognized that unless he did something substantial, he would become failure number six. So he gambled by going to war with Chechnya. The risk paid off, and Putin gained a quick victory. Then he took on the oligarchs and won. His moves have been very calculated. Putin should never be underestimated; he is very smart. And he has surrounded himself with people who are completely loyal to his cause and to himself.
Daily Bell: The Colder War focuses on Putin, but should he be thought of as part of a political apparatus, the part that shows up in public? Is it possible that Putin is a front man for larger Russian interests? Or perhaps for internationalist interests?
Marin Katusa: Putin is the public face of a reestablished Russian superpower, but he's not just a front man. It was under his leadership that Russia reestablished itself as a global power, and with that, formed alliances with countries such as China that work against US global interests.
Daily Bell: Is Putin being deliberately positioned by the West as a kind of Hitler bogeyman?
Marin Katusa: I would say yes, as the Western media (http://www.thedailybell.com/definitions/params/id/1861/) is automatically so anti-Putin.
Daily Bell: During Hitler's rise to power, Germany and its military-industrial complex (http://www.thedailybell.com/definitions/params/id/1864/) were funded to a degree by Western interests. Is there any evidence that Western interests were complicit in Putin's rise? Is it possible that Putin is playing a kind of assigned role as an enemy of the West? That would be a dialectical pattern that history has repeated, especially in the past 100 years or so.
Marin Katusa: Definitely not.
Daily Bell: How do you expect the Ukraine conflict to play out?
Marin Katusa: Ukraine is a former Soviet Republic and is still home to many Russians, a majority of them in the eastern area. After Ukraine was destabilized earlier this year, Russia annexed Crimea. It's a warm-water, deep sea port for Russia. It lies along the route planned for Russia's South Stream gas pipeline for delivering Russian natural gas to Europe. And Crimea may have offshore oil and natural gas deposits.
I see further conflict in Ukraine, as the people and the nation are being pulled in two different directions. On the west, the EU and US interests want Ukraine to join the EU. I see that happening, but only after the EU puts up tens of billions of dollars to prop up Ukraine and billions more to pay Russia for past deliveries of natural gas. Otherwise, the flow of gas through Ukraine to the rest of Europe will stop.
Thus far, I'd say Russia has been getting the best of the deal. They got Crimea, something they have wanted for a long time, and the EU ends up with tens of billions of dollars of future liabilities. The Ukraine issue will continue for some time.
Daily Bell: The West obviously had a hand in destabilizing Ukraine. Has Putin outmaneuvered the West?
Marin Katusa: Yes.
Daily Bell: How will Europe try to deal with Putin?
Marin Katusa: They have tried, and they continue to fail. Putin is moving his agenda forward by signing major energy deals, such as the $400 billion natural gas deal with China. Another example is the Iranian nuclear deal.
The West has imposed economic sanctions, which have made life difficult for Russian companies, but ironically, have also hurt major companies in Germany. The sanctions have fostered a Sino-Russia alliance, a bad development for Europe in many ways.
Daily Bell: Has Putin essentially won in Ukraine? Does this make him more dangerous to Western interests?
Marin Katusa: The reason Putin has become more dangerous to Western interests is that he now has shown repeatedly that he will stand up to the EU and also to the US. The world has taken notice; other countries have seen that it is possible to say "no" to Washington.
Daily Bell: Is Russia essentially a European country?
Marin Katusa: Most Russians view themselves as Europeans. However, the rest of Europe sees them differently.
Daily Bell: Under Putin, will Russia recreate the USSR?
Marin Katusa: No. Putin is much too clever for that.
Daily Bell: The BRICS (http://www.thedailybell.com/definitions/params/id/1971/) acronym was devised by a Goldman Sachs banker as a theoretical construct. Have those countries nonetheless emerged as a credible counterforce to Western interests?
Marin Katusa: It's already started, first with Russia and with the support of China. Consider, for example, how Russia and China questioned and opposed Obama's decisions in Syria last year – and, ironically, most of America agreed with Putin, not Obama. Another example is the BRICS bank being promoted as an alternative to the IMF (http://www.thedailybell.com/definitions/params/id/1823/).
Daily Bell: Will China continue to side with Putin?
Marin Katusa: The $400 billion natural gas deal signed last summer is the largest ever construction project on Earth. This is the first of many giant deals between China and Russia. Yes, China will continue to back Putin's plans.
Daily Bell: Will the current US-led sanctions damage Putin politically in Russia? Are people in Russia getting tired of Putin? Is his popularity in decline?
Marin Katusa: No, his popularity is not in decline. As much as our Western media would like to say that his published approval ratings are fake, the reality is that Russia under Putin has increased its standard of living, increased its GDP and now, in 2014, for the first time since 1992, the birth rate in Russia is greater than the mortality rate. Interesting how the Western media never mention those facts.
Daily Bell: Were Putin to fall, would someone else come along to continue with his strategies? In other words, are those strategies as much the product of historical logic as they are of Putin himself?
Marin Katusa: Good question, and this is something we cover in the book. As I mentioned earlier, Putin has a loyal inner circle, whose members, such as Igor Sechin, would continue with Putin's grand plan. Putin is the leader, but there are many who would step up if for whatever reason Putin fell from power. Russia does not live or die by Putin's force; rather it was under Putin's leadership that Russia re-established itself as a superpower, and Putin was wise enough to surround himself with a loyal, capable group that will advance Russian interests.
Daily Bell: How do you see the world in ten years? Will it be a more dangerous place? Will the petrodollar be finished? What will have replaced it?
Marin Katusa: Sadly, with the evolution of modern warfare, I see more drones being used both above ground, on ground and in the oceans. I do not see peace in the Middle East any time soon; rather I see more chaos over the next 10 years.
I also believe there will be significant damage to the petrodollar over the next decade, even though the US will do whatever it can to resist that damage. Russia and China (and the governments of many other emerging economies) want to weaken the petrodollar by promoting the use of other currencies for trading oil and everything else.
Repeated jabs at the petrodollar will come from bi-lateral currency agreements. For example, the $400 billion Russia/China natural gas deal is actually a zero dollar agreement. Payment for the gas will be settled in rubles and yuan, not in US currency. Those countries also are tilting the composition of their official reserves toward gold and away from dollars.
Daily Bell: Is international commerce headed toward a basket of currencies, a kind of bancor good around the world?
Marin Katusa: Yes. I think that will be the straw that breaks the back of the petrodollar.
Daily Bell: Do you see any sign that Western interests themselves are destabilizing the dollar in order to move toward a more global financial system?
Marin Katusa: A recent example was France, with their food-for-oil program with Saddam Hussein. Most recently Total, France's largest oil company, attacked the sanctions against Russia and the petrodollar itself with a decision to make a $27 billion investment in the Russian Yamal LNG project and finance it without using dollars. The trend will continue.
Daily Bell: Tell us what will happen to Western societies as the Colder War progresses, especially if Putin prevails.
Marin Katusa: If the petrodollar dies, the US standard of living will be cut in half. It will be worse than the Great Depression (http://www.thedailybell.com/definitions/params/id/2305/). It will be worse than anything the US has ever seen.
Daily Bell: What should people do now to survive the Colder War and perhaps profit from it?
Marin Katusa: The first thing is to educate yourself about what is really going on with the Colder War. That's what the book is for. Then invest a portion of your net worth in resource companies that will benefit from the Colder War. Also, you will want some exposure to physical gold, which should profit from a depreciating US dollar. And having more than one passport is something I believe is prudent, as is keeping bank accounts in more than one country. If you can afford it, owning a home in more than one country is prudent internationalization.
Daily Bell: Given the maneuvering as Russia and the West face off over energy supplies, I can see how companies that provide oil and gas, especially to Europe, are going to reap terrific rewards. How would you go about identifying companies that will be aggressive about profiting from the conflict?
Marin Katusa: To win with resource investments, you need to go with the strongest management teams. They won't just have experience; they'll have experience with success. And they'll be investing personally in the company you're considering, right along with you.
For myself and the funds I manage, I look for companies run by the absolute best management teams, people who've proven they'll know how to profit from the Colder War.
Daily Bell: What specifically should people look for in oil and gas companies?
Marin Katusa: First, there's skill at keeping ahead in the technology race. Super fracs and Super pads were science fiction terms just a few years ago, but now they're becoming ho-hum. Fracking and other unconventional technologies are advancing and evolving so fast that you want to make sure you are invested with people who can keep up.
Next, there's land. The best geologists and management teams will pick up big sections of land before an area has attracted a crowd. Some companies we've invested in picked up land for less than $1 an acre and now it's valued at over $1,000 an acre.
Third, there's business basics. A successful management team must be able to fund their exploration and productions plans and manage the risks. When oil prices dip, a company with two much debt leverage gets crippled.
Daily Bell: Is there room for small energy companies to profit from the Colder War, or will all the winnings go to the energy giants?
Marin Katusa: There will definitely be little companies that benefit from the Colder War. Many already have. For example, in 2007 we invested in Cuadrilla Resources, a company premised on the UK's need to diversify away from Russian natural gas. They picked up cheap land in the UK and Netherlands. The company has been a huge success for investors because it had the three critical elements – advanced technology, a big land position and the ability to execute without taking on too much debt.
The smaller resource companies are where the richest investor profits will be made.
Daily Bell: In assessing the promise of investment classes during the Colder War, you mention gold and silver (http://www.thedailybell.com/definitions/params/id/804/), including the physical metals. But you also mention junior miners, even though they're currently out of favor among investors. What makes you enthusiastic about the sector for the long term?
Marin Katusa: First off, to be successful in resource speculation, you need to see everything through the eyes of a contrarian: Yes, junior resource stocks are out of flavor... so they're very cheap. It's not easy to buy low and sell high, but we are currently in a period where the "buy low" part isn't that difficult. While the stocks of junior resource companies have been falling 75% or so in that last few years, many of those companies have doubled or tripled their ounces in the ground.
One of our funds has bought millions of dollars' worth of shares in companies that exactly fit that profile. We can now buy the best management teams and world-class assets at a fraction of what they traded at 3 to 4 years ago. With a 5- to 10-year time horizon, buying those stocks will work out very well.
Daily Bell: Thanks, Marin, for a fascinating interview and for giving us an advance peek at a great book.
- See more at: http://www.thedailybell.com/exclusive-interviews/35783/Anthony-Wile-Marin-Katusa-Startling-Rise-of-The-Colder-War/#sthash.264Kzn9L.dpuf
singular_me
6th February 2015, 06:51 PM
the most abject and abhorrent is to go into debt for wars. paying taxes to get killed.
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Leaders of Germany and France travel to Moscow to discuss new Ukraine peace plan, as Germany's defence minister warns that sending weapons to help Ukraine fight pro-Moscow rebels would "pour oil onto the flames" of the conflict. Follow latest developments
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11392108/Ukraine-crisis-Angela-Merkel-and-Francois-Hollande-to-fly-to-Russia-live.html
Ukrainian parliament passes law allowing army deserters to be shot
http://rt.com/news/229739-ukraine-army-shoot-defectors/
Horn
6th February 2015, 08:40 PM
Russia tests new weapons
Eastern Ukraine has become a testing ground for Russia's new military capabilities.
When Russia last went to war, in Georgia in 2008, it looked like an easy victory. But Russia's generals were deeply concerned at how badly their forces performed in some key areas of modern warfare.
Russia has spent the seven years since then rearming, re-equipping, and retraining, in order to deal with those deficiencies, and to try to close the capability gap with modern Western armies.
Now the results can be seen in eastern Ukraine, where pro-Russian separatists have gained ground against Ukrainian government troops.
http://gold-silver.us/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=7264&stc=1
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31146595
mick silver
7th February 2015, 07:46 AM
Europe and U.S. clash over how to confront Putin over Ukraine
By Stephen Brown and Noah Barkin
Related Stories
Merkel rules out arming Ukraine government but unsure peace push will work (http://news.yahoo.com/merkel-rules-arming-ukraine-government-unsure-peace-push-124213766--sector.html) Reuters
Merkel uncertain of chances for Ukraine deal (http://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-diplomatic-flurry-goes-round-germany-083140687.html) Associated Press
Putin, Ukraine leader to hold 4-way phone call on peace plan (http://news.yahoo.com/merkel-germany-france-power-ukraine-peace-111438429.html) Associated Press
Merkel, Hollande take Ukraine peace plan to Putin (http://news.yahoo.com/hospital-shelled-east-ukraine-calls-mount-truce-030343212.html) AFP
French, German leaders push new peace plan for east Ukraine (http://news.yahoo.com/3-killed-shelling-rebel-stronghold-eastern-ukraine-083737327.html) Associated Press
MUNICH (Reuters) - Germany's Angela Merkel warned on Saturday that sending arms to help Ukraine fight pro-Russian separatists would not solve the crisis there, drawing a sharp rebuke from a leading U.S. senator who accused Berlin of turning its back on an ally in distress.
The heated exchange at a security conference in Munich pointed to the fragility of the transatlantic consensus on how to confront Russian President Vladimir Putin over a deepening conflict in eastern Ukraine that has killed more than 5,000.
Russia's annexation of the Crimean peninsula in March last year and evidence that it is supporting separatist forces in the east of the country, which the Kremlin denies, have driven Moscow's relations with the West to a post-Cold War low.
A recent rebel offensive has triggered a flurry of shuttle diplomacy, with Merkel and French President Francois Hollande jetting to Moscow on Friday to try to convince Putin to do a peace deal.
But European officials say the Russian leader may have little incentive to negotiate now, preferring to sit back and watch the separatists make territorial gains in Ukraine that have made a mockery of a prior ceasefire agreement clinched last September in Minsk, Belarus.
Ukraine's military said on Saturday that pro-Russian separatists had stepped up shelling of government forces and appeared to be amassing forces for new offensives on the key railway town of Debaltseve and the coastal city of Mariupol.
The German leader conceded in Munich, after returning home from Moscow in the dead of night, that it was uncertain whether a Franco-German peace plan presented to Kiev and Moscow this week would succeed.
But she flatly rejected the idea that sending weapons to Kiev, an idea being considered by U.S. President Barack Obama, would help resolve the conflict.
"I understand the debate but I believe that more weapons will not lead to the progress Ukraine needs. I really doubt that," said the conservative German leader, who has led a W
Western initiative to resolve the crisis through negotiations.
"The problem is that I can't envision any situation in which a better-equipped Ukraine military would convince President Putin that he could lose militarily," Merkel added.
"BLUE IN THE FACE"
Speaking after Merkel, U.S. Senator Lyndsey Graham, a Republican hawk, praised the chancellor for her engagement in the crisis but said it was time for her to wake up to the reality of what he called Moscow's aggressions.
"At the end of the day, to our European friends, this is not working. You can go to Moscow until you turn blue in the face. Stand up to what is clearly a lie and a danger," Graham said.
He accused Merkel of turning her back on a struggling democracy by rejecting down Kiev's request for arms. "That is exactly what you are doing," he said.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, also in Munich, said there were "good grounds for optimism" that the talks between Merkel, Putin and Hollande could yield a deal.
But Lavrov also delivered a diatribe against the West. He accused Europe and the United States of supporting a "coup d'etat" against deposed Ukrainian leader Viktor Yanukovich, a Moscow ally, a year ago and turning a blind eye to nationalists he said were intent on ethnic cleansing in eastern Ukraine.
"There are growing appeals in the West to support the Kiev policy of militarization, to pump Ukraine full with lethal weapons and to bring it into NATO," Lavrov said. "This position will only exacerbate the tragedy of Ukraine."
Hollande, speaking to reporters in the city of Tulle in central France, cast the talks with Putin as a last-ditch effort to avert full-blown war.
"If we don't manage to find not just a compromise but a lasting peace agreement, we know perfectly well what the scenario will be. It has a name, it's called war," he said.
In a further sign of cracks in the Western approach towards Russia, NATO's top military commander, U.S. Air Force General Philip Breedlove signaled that he now wants the alliance to consider sending weapons to Ukraine.
"I don't think we should preclude out of hand the possibility of the military option," Breedlove told reporters, adding that he was referring to weapons or capabilities and that there was "no conversation about boots on the ground".
After her speech, Merkel held three-way talks with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and U.S. Vice President Joe Biden. She is due to fly to Washington on Sunday to meet Obama.
(Additional reporting by Adrian Croft, Lesley Wroughton, Shadia Nasralla, Andreas Rinke & Sabine Siebold; Editing by Mark Heinrich)
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slvrbugjim
7th February 2015, 11:52 AM
I cannot even understand how this Mother Fer is still around
Speaking after Merkel, U.S. Senator Lyndsey Graham, a Republican hawk, praised the chancellor for her engagement in the crisis but said it was time for her to wake up to the reality of what he called Moscow's aggressions.
"At the end of the day, to our European friends, this is not working. You can go to Moscow until you turn blue in the face. Stand up to what is clearly a lie and a danger," Graham said.
He accused Merkel of turning her back on a struggling democracy by rejecting down Kiev's request for arms. "That is exactly what you are doing," he said.
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