This Is What Russia Really Wants

[mick silver]

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/what-russia-really-wants-13169 I am absolutely sure that Russia is not going to yield anything," Andranik Migranyan told an audience at the Center for the National Interest.TNI Staff (http://nationalinterest.org/profile/tni-staff)
June 24, 2015





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http://nationalinterest.org/sites/all/modules/print/icons/print_icon.gif (http://nationalinterest.org/print/feature/what-russia-really-wants-13169) With the European Union extending sanctions for a further six months, relations between Russia and the West remain tense. The annexation of Crimea, coupled with the continued conflict in eastern Ukraine, has convinced many in Europe and the United States that a more aggressive posture toward Moscow is imperative. But is there a different path open to both that could eventually lead to a more amicable relationship?
Andranik Migranyan, a prominent foreign policy expert and the head of the Institute for Democracy and Cooperation, a think-tank sponsored by the Russian government, appeared at the Center for the National Interest to offer some valedictory remarks about U.S.-Russia relations before he returns to Moscow. A veteran observer of the United States, he expressed confidence that Moscow will eventually persuade Washington to recognize and acknowledge it as a great power. “If you are resolute and determined to resist, in the end, America,” he said, will come around. That was true in “Vietnam, Iraq, Libya, now in Ukraine. You must resist until the last.” According to Migranyan, “I am absolutely sure that Russia is not going to yield anything. Russia has its interests, which are very clearly formulated.”


CFTNI president Dimitri K. Simes, in introductory remarks, listed several past Migranyan predictions that had come true—he’d warned that the Obama administration’s “reset” policy would run into trouble, and he’d anticipated both of Vladimir Putin’s exchanges of power with Dmitry Medvedev, for example; further back, he’d spotted storm clouds on the horizon for both Yeltsin and Gorbachev.
Now Migranyan pointed to new problems. For one thing, he castigated the Ukrainian government for failing to implement the internal reforms contained in the Minsk agreement—and of even denying to its citizens that it had committed to such reforms. He argued that Moscow was trying to use its influence over the separatists in Ukraine’s east, but that Washington had not exerted the same pressure on the Ukrainian government—and he expressed a great faith in Washington’s influence there, suggesting that a mere call from the Vice President could stop the conflict.
Migranyan was pessimistic about the direction the conflict was headed, suggesting that the Ukrainian government is caught in a double bind: further war would likely lead to “constant defeats,” yet peace would be unlikely to yield enough aid for stability. War, he suggested, would at least help the government mobilize society and defer the economic problem, and so escalation was likely. The end result, said Migranyan, would be growing pressure on the United States to arm the Ukrainian government—and, he said, several American experts had warned that more arms would not remove Russia’s escalation dominance. If events go in this direction, then the “survival of Ukraine as a unified country,” stated Migranyan, would be “miraculous.”


















Yet despite all this, Migranyan suggested that the Ukraine crisis was not the only cause of tensions between Russia and the West. Instead, he said, the broader question of the “fate of Soviet heritage” was at the root. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, he said, the West “swallowed” Eastern Europe, and it is now trying to do the same with some of the former Soviet republics. He accused the West of trying to restore the conditions of the 1990s, when Russia was weak enough that there were jokes that the Russian foreign ministry was an office in the U.S. State Department. In this vein, he expressed concerns about a Hillary Clinton presidency, on the grounds that officials from the 1990s have tended to see Russia as a country that can be written off and ignored.
Migranyan said that there was no desire to restore the Soviet Union or even to put NATO’s Article 5 collective defense guarantees to the test in places like the Baltic States or Poland. Instead, he argued, Russia wants to be treated as a great power and even a partner, and this would entail Russian concerns being taken seriously—which, he said, has “never ever” happened since the fall of the Soviet Union. A major, longstanding Russian ambition, he said, has been a new security partnership in Europe, with NATO as one pillar and Russia as another. “Unfortunately,” said Migranyan, “Washington treats nobody as a partner.”
Russia’s ambassador to the United States, Sergey Kislyak, offered extended comments as well. He differed from Migranyan’s characterization of Russia as a nation seeking respect, saying that this suggested a “kind of inferiority complex.” “Russia has been Russia even before [the] United States appeared on the map...we have [a] great culture, vast land, phenomenal talents...” said Kislyak. “We do not seek recognition as a normal country. We have interests, including in security, that we want to be taken on board.”
In addition, Kislyak downplayed the significance of recent Russian military maneuvers off the coasts of Western countries, while warning of “muscle-flexing” by NATO forces near Russia’s borders. He complained of “exercises that never stop” that serve as a “trick” to permanently deploy forces near Russia, against what was “promised to [Russia] in the Founding Act.” He further said that “there is no discussion in Russia of deploying nuclear weapons in any aggressive fashion,” but “NATO is on the border of violating the NPT treaty by making the non-nuclear-weapon countries of NATO participate in training for nuclear missions, something that is certainly very...troublesome to us.” Kislyak stated that this was now likely the “worst period in our relations after the end of the Cold War.”
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[mick silver]

Total pulls out of Russian gas projecthttp://l.yimg.com/os/publish-images/news/2013-08-26/d19448d6-6aaa-4359-a768-eadacf5fbca9_afp-gif_new.gif (http://www.afp.com/) 3 hours ago





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Picture taken on February 18, 2015 shows facilities of Novoprtovskoye oil and gas condensates oilfield of Russian gas and oil giant Gazprom at Gazprom's Cape Kamenny oil and gas facility in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District in the Russian Arctic (AFP Photo/Andrey Golovanov)





Paris (AFP) - Total said Wednesday it had pulled out of the Shtokman natural gas project in the Barents Sea, with development of one of the world's largest untouched gas fields apparently falling victim to Western sanctions in Russia.



"Total has passed to Gazprom its 25 percent share in Shtokman Development AG and expressed its interest to further cooperate on the project should it enter an active phase," the French energy company said, confirming a report in the Russian business daily Vedomosti.
The project had been frozen for two years waiting for new technology to make it profitable, but Vedomosti said development solutions Total had recently proposed were prevented from moving forward by sanctions.
The United States and European Union slapped sanctions on Russia last year over its role in the Ukraine crisis, targeting in particular the oil and gas sector where Russia needs Western technology to profitably access deposits in hostile climates.
At 3.8 trillion cubic metres of gas, the Shtokman field is one of the world's largest untouched gas fields.
But buried underneath the Barents Sea above the Arctic Circle, developing it would require technology breakthroughs and huge investment.
Norway's Statoil dropped out of the project in 2013 and then Gazprom suspended it until new technology could make it viable.
Total wrote off last year $350 million (312 million euros) for its stake in the Shtokman project, but continued to work on technological solutions and did not formally renounce the partnership with Gazprom.
Vedomosti said Total executives told Russian news agencies last year that they had proposed new technologies to Gazprom and that work on the project was continuing.
But then Western sanctions were imposed, and Vedomosti said Total had received permission from the French government to work on only three projects in Russia: the Yamal, Kharyaga and Termokarstovoye projects.
The Russian newspaper said the transfer of the Shtokman stake was agreed last week at Russia's annual economic forum in Saint Petersburg, where Gazprom chief Alexei Miller met with Total's Patrick Pouyanne.
It said a Gazprom spokesman had confided that Miller promised Pouyanne during the meeting that Total would be the first company approached to join the Shtokman project if Gazprom decided to pursue its development.
Total has in recent years launched a drive to raise its output, in particular through operations in Russia, which should become its top production source by 2020.


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[mick silver]

NATO retools for long-haul standoff with Russiahttps://media.zenfs.com/creatr-images/GLB/2015-04-20/94e89b90-e7b0-11e4-9ea9-23e8763fec68_Associated-Press.png (http://www.ap.org/) By JOHN-THOR DAHLBURG 10 minutes ago





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BRUSSELS (AP) — From top-level decisions like how NATO orders its troops into action to the very granular, like repainting an airfield near the Baltic Sea coast, the U.S.-led alliance is retooling for what it fears could be years of confrontation with a resurgent and unpredictable Russia.
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"After decades of peace, that peaceful period after the Cold War is now over," Poland's defense minister and deputy premier Tomasz Siemoniak said recently. "Because there are more and more crises erupting around Europe, and we have to make sure that the public understands it."
On Wednesday, Siemoniak, U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter and counterparts from throughout NATO opened a two-day meeting in Brussels expected to continue reshaping an organization originally founded in 1949 to deter the Stalin-era Soviet Union from overrunning Western Europe with its tanks and troops.
Following Russia's annexation of Ukraine's Crimea region, the perceived threats to NATO come once again from Moscow — but also from surging radical Muslim extremists like the Islamic State group and on battlefields unheard of by the alliance's founders, like cyberspace.
"Today, we will take decisions to strengthen our collective defense and we will do that because NATO has to deal with a new and more challenging security environment," Jens Stoltenberg, the alliance secretary-general, told reporters as he headed into Wednesday's meeting.
Russia too has been reviving its airfields and last week it said its military will add over 40 new intercontinental ballistic missiles this year alone. In early December, it flexed its muscle by airlifting state-of-the art Iskander missiles, which can be fitted with nuclear or conventional warheads, to its westernmost Baltic exclave — Kaliningrad.
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(http://news.yahoo.com/photos/nato-secretary-general-jens-stoltenberg-speaks-during-media-photo-130316167.html)NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg speaks during a media conference at EU headquarters in Bruss …

They were later pulled back, but the deployment clearly served as a demonstration of the Russian military's readiness to quickly raise the ante in a crisis.
To continue NATO's adaptation, defense ministers are expected to order a further increase in the strength and capabilities of the alliance's Response Force, from 30,000 to as many as 40,000 troops, Stoltenberg said.
In February, at their last meeting in Brussels, defense ministers agreed to create a rapidly deployable multinational task force of 5,000 ground troops that could come to the aid within 48 hours of any NATO member menaced by Russia or other external threats.
On Wednesday, ministers are expected to decide on the air, sea and special forces units needed to complement this so-called "spearhead force." Douglas Lute, U.S. ambassador to NATO, predicted a sizeable U.S. contribution, including strategic airlift capability.
On Tuesday, Carter announced during a visit to Estonia that the U.S. will also spread about 250 tanks, armored vehicles and other military equipment across a half-dozen of NATO's easternmost members that feel most at risk from Russia.
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(http://news.yahoo.com/photos/german-defence-minister-ursula-von-der-leyen-speaks-photo-151959073.html)German Defence Minister Ursula von der Leyen speaks with German soldiers after the NATO Noble Jump e …

Earlier, the U.S. defense secretary told reporters traveling with him that the Obama administration still hopes to work with the Russians on important issues like the Iran nuclear talks, the fight against Islamic State group and efforts to bring about peaceful regime change in Syria. But Carter said NATO must adapt its deterrence and response capabilities "in anticipation that Russia might not change under Vladimir Putin, or even thereafter."
Last September, the U.S. announced a plan to spend up to $1 billion on various actions to reassure European NATO members. The funds are paying for increased U.S. troop rotations, more exercises, more prepositioning of military equipment and upgrading of infrastructure, including repainting the airfield and adding bulk fuel storage capacity at Amari Air Base in Estonia.
Since possessing an ultra-fast reaction force is pointless if NATO's 28 member countries can't quickly agree in an emergency on how to use it, defense ministers are also expected to decide on a new mechanism to "speed up political and military-decision making," Stoltenberg said.
To further promote faster decisions, "we will also improve our advance planning," the NATO chief said.
Ministers are expected to grant U.S. Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove, the alliance's supreme commander in Europe, greater authority to mobilize troops and get them ready to go. But Stoltenberg stressed that in the event of deployment, member countries' "full political control" over alliance actions, one of NATO's guiding principles, would be maintained.
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(http://news.yahoo.com/photos/us-secretary-defense-ash-carter-smiles-during-visit-photo-141302473.html)US Secretary of Defense Ash Carter smiles during his visit to the I. German-Dutch Brigade in Muenste …

Lute said Breedlove will be given more latitude than at present to alert and assemble the reaction force. The power to decide on its use will remain with representatives of the governments of NATO's member countries, but the current step-by-step political decision-making sequence used to approve military operations will be simplified and compressed, the U.S. ambassador said.
"So it's two parts: delegate some (powers) to Phil, and streamline those that remain at the political level," Lute said.
The latest changes at NATO follow broad policy decisions taken by U.S. President Barack Obama and other alliance leaders at the summit held in Wales last September, and come at about the midway point between that meeting and the next NATO summit scheduled for July 2016 in Warsaw, Poland.
"Things over the last several years have gone at a dizzying pace, you might say," U.S. Air Force Secretary Deborah Lee James said during a visit this month to Brussels. "There has been more change than I can remember ever in a single two-year period, at least in the 34 years that I have been an observer on the defense scene."
___
Lolita Baldor in Tallinn, Estonia and Monika Scislowska at the Zagan-Swietoszow test range, Poland contributed.


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[mick silver]

Russia just one-upped the Saudis in Chinahttp://media.zenfs.com/284/2011/06/08/biz-insider-65x27_102440.gif (http://www.businessinsider.com/) By Elena Holodny 20 hours ago




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(Maxim Shipenkov/Reuters)
Moscow just one-upped the Saudis in China: Russia is officially Beijing's No. 1 crude supplier. "China imported a record 3.92 million metric tons from its northern neighbor in May, according to data emailed by the Beijing-based General Administration of Customs on Tuesday," according to Bloomberg (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-23/russia-pips-saudi-arabia-in-race-to-grab-china-oil-market-share).
"That's equivalent to 927,000 barrels a day, a 20% increase from the previous month. Saudi sales slumped 42% from April to 3.05 million tons."
What's more: The Kingdom fell to third place behind Angola, which sold 3.26 million tons to China, up 14% from April.
As China's been itching to move away (http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-slaps-down-the-dollar-2015-6) from the dollar in favor of its own currency, some analysts attributed the change in top supplier to Russia's willingness to play along.
“Following Russia’s recent acceptance of the renminbi (http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-slaps-down-the-dollar-2015-6) as payments for oil, we expect more record high oil imports ahead to China,” Gordon Kwan, the Hong Kong-based head of regional oil and gas research at Nomura Holdings Inc., told Bloomberg. (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-23/russia-pips-saudi-arabia-in-race-to-grab-china-oil-market-share)
“If Saudi Arabia wants to recapture its number one ranking, it needs to accept the renminbi for oil payments instead of just the dollar.”

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(REUTERS/Carlos Barria)
This is the first time that Russia is China's top crude supplier since October 2005. After disagreements with the West over Ukraine, Moscow turned its gaze, and commodities, eastward as it looked for new markets. Back in 2013, Russian state oil company Rosneft agreed to supply 365 million tons over 25 years to China National Petroleum Corp. under a $270 billion deal. Further, Rosneft agreed on a $85 billion, 10-year deal with China Petrochemical Corp, according to Bloomberg.
But it's important to note that despite all the Sino-Russo fanfare, energy-starved Beijing is ultimately after the best deals. It is not buying from Russia simply for some ideological reason.
“Russia is using its good relationship with China to increase supplies and has now taken the top spot,” Gao Jian, an analyst at SCI International, a Shandong-based energy consultant, told Bloomberg (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-23/russia-pips-saudi-arabia-in-race-to-grab-china-oil-market-share).
"Saudi Arabia is losing its crown as its selling prices in Asia haven’t been attractive enough."

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(REUTERS/Stringer)
In the background, Russia has been reluctant to play Saudi Arabia's oil game. This spring, Saudi officials "have repeatedly stated that the entire cartel and non-OPEC players like Russia would need to join and bear the burden of a cut as in 1986 and 1998," RBC Capital Markets' Helima Croft wrote in a note to clients earlier (http://www.businessinsider.com/saudi-arabia-russia-opec-oil-output-2015-6).
But Russia wasn't showing any signs of jumping on the coordinated production cut.
NOW WATCH: 11 amazing facts about Vladimir Putin (http://www.businessinsider.com/amazing-facts-about-vladimir-putin-russia-president-2015-3)


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[mick silver]

Russian Naval Vessels Led By Moskva Missile Cruiser Prepare For ‘Assigned Mission’ In Atlantic
http://www.ibtimes.com/russian-naval-vessels-led-moskva-missile-cruiser-prepare-assigned-mission-atlantic-1981044

[gunDriller]

Russia could sink the US with one long press conference.