vacuum
11th July 2015, 12:14 AM
Just read about this and did a little research for you guys.
Researchers took a look at historical solar data, and developed a model which they say is 97% accurate at predicting sunspots and solar output. According to the model, they say conditions in 2030 will be similar to that of the Maunder minimum.
http://phys.org/news/2015-07-irregular-heartbeat-sun-driven-dynamo.html
They say their model is two dynamos within the sun, one close to the core and another closer to the surface, that is responsible for sun activity. Both dynamos have roughly an 11 year period, however they are offset in time and have slightly different periods which causes them to either cancel or superimpose to create things like ice ages and as you know various medieval solar events.
This dual-dynamo theory is nice, but I read a comment by someone which I found very intriguing, and I think is much simpler:
The mainstream astronomy is surprisingly persistent in its ignorance of explanation, what drives the Solar dynamo - the changes of barycenter location of Solar system with massive planets. It just looks like another taboo of mainstream physics for me. Its ignorance is the more surprising, as this explanation doesn't threat the established physical theories very much - with the only honor exception: the Arrhenius model of global warming. And this is IMO the rub of this ignorance: the NASA, which is motivated to solar research the most is also engaged in anthropocentric global warming model.
Lets to say clearly, that the ignorance of apparent coincidence of period of solar cycle with orbital period of Jupiter planet is quite a success for ignorance of mainstream science of the latest four hundred years. Everyone can verify it. But the the secondary cycles (like the Gleissberg's cycle (http://i.imgur.com/yef0UZI.gif)) coincide with orbital periods of another planets too! There is absolutely no need to invent silly stuffs.
I looked up information on the barycenter of our solar system, and indeed sometimes the center of mass/rotation isn't even located within the sun, which seems like a very violent thing to me:
To calculate the actual motion of the Sun, you would need to sum all the influences from all the planets, comets, asteroids, etc. of the Solar System (see n-body problem). If all the planets were aligned on the same side of the Sun, the combined center of mass would lie about 500,000 km above the Sun's surface.
I also looked up the orbital period of Jupiter and it is 11.8 years.
Regardless of the mechanism that causes these things to happen, the fact that they claim to have a model with 97% accuracy is very good and should be able to make good predictions of the future, so the 2030 thing might be real. It is impressive indeed if the model can predict this:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5c/Carbon14_with_activity_labels.svg/500px-Carbon14_with_activity_labels.svg.png
(https://3c-lxa.gmx.com/mail/client/dereferrer?redirectUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia. org%2Fwiki%2FFile%3ACarbon14_with_activity_labels. svg)
Regarding the source of the study, the article says "Results will be presented today by Prof Valentina Zharkova at the National Astronomy Meeting in Llandudno."
Researchers took a look at historical solar data, and developed a model which they say is 97% accurate at predicting sunspots and solar output. According to the model, they say conditions in 2030 will be similar to that of the Maunder minimum.
http://phys.org/news/2015-07-irregular-heartbeat-sun-driven-dynamo.html
They say their model is two dynamos within the sun, one close to the core and another closer to the surface, that is responsible for sun activity. Both dynamos have roughly an 11 year period, however they are offset in time and have slightly different periods which causes them to either cancel or superimpose to create things like ice ages and as you know various medieval solar events.
This dual-dynamo theory is nice, but I read a comment by someone which I found very intriguing, and I think is much simpler:
The mainstream astronomy is surprisingly persistent in its ignorance of explanation, what drives the Solar dynamo - the changes of barycenter location of Solar system with massive planets. It just looks like another taboo of mainstream physics for me. Its ignorance is the more surprising, as this explanation doesn't threat the established physical theories very much - with the only honor exception: the Arrhenius model of global warming. And this is IMO the rub of this ignorance: the NASA, which is motivated to solar research the most is also engaged in anthropocentric global warming model.
Lets to say clearly, that the ignorance of apparent coincidence of period of solar cycle with orbital period of Jupiter planet is quite a success for ignorance of mainstream science of the latest four hundred years. Everyone can verify it. But the the secondary cycles (like the Gleissberg's cycle (http://i.imgur.com/yef0UZI.gif)) coincide with orbital periods of another planets too! There is absolutely no need to invent silly stuffs.
I looked up information on the barycenter of our solar system, and indeed sometimes the center of mass/rotation isn't even located within the sun, which seems like a very violent thing to me:
To calculate the actual motion of the Sun, you would need to sum all the influences from all the planets, comets, asteroids, etc. of the Solar System (see n-body problem). If all the planets were aligned on the same side of the Sun, the combined center of mass would lie about 500,000 km above the Sun's surface.
I also looked up the orbital period of Jupiter and it is 11.8 years.
Regardless of the mechanism that causes these things to happen, the fact that they claim to have a model with 97% accuracy is very good and should be able to make good predictions of the future, so the 2030 thing might be real. It is impressive indeed if the model can predict this:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5c/Carbon14_with_activity_labels.svg/500px-Carbon14_with_activity_labels.svg.png
(https://3c-lxa.gmx.com/mail/client/dereferrer?redirectUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia. org%2Fwiki%2FFile%3ACarbon14_with_activity_labels. svg)
Regarding the source of the study, the article says "Results will be presented today by Prof Valentina Zharkova at the National Astronomy Meeting in Llandudno."