'Tacit' deal between US, Russia to end Syria war: Assad adviser

[mick silver]

7 hours ago









Done


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Damascus (AFP) - Russia and the United States have reached a "tacit agreement" on ending Syria's bloody crisis, a senior adviser to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has said.
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"The current US administration wants to find a solution to the crisis in Syria. There is a tacit agreement between the US and Russia to reach this solution," Bouthaina Shaaban said in an interview with state television late Wednesday.
"The US recognises now that Russia has profound knowledge of this region and a better assessment of the situation," she said.
"The current international climate is heading towards detente and towards a solution for the crisis in Syria."
Shaaban said there was a "change in the West's positions" over Syria's war, which has killed more than 240,000 people and displaced millions since 2011.
Russia, a decades-long backer of Syria's regime, has said it would not accept Assad's departure as a prerequisite for launching any peace process in the war-torn country.
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(http://news.yahoo.com/photos/russias-president-vladimir-putin-shakes-hands-syrian-counterpart-photo-090639480.html)Russia, a decades-long backer of Syria's regime, has said it would not accept Assad's depart …

While the United States has called for Assad's ouster for more than four years, Secretary of State John Kerry said last week that "it doesn't have to be on day one or month one or whatever."
On Wednesday, French President Francois Hollande called for a new Syria peace conference "so that all the countries who want to see peace restored in Syria can contribute."
While Hollande maintained that there could be "no transition without (Assad's) departure," German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Thursday that the Syrian leader should be involved in the talks.
"We have to speak with many actors, this includes Assad, but others as well," Merkel told a press conference after an EU summit on the migration crisis sparked by the Syrian war.
The diplomatic flurry came amid concerns about increased Russian military support to Assad, including Moscow's announcement Thursday that it would hold naval drills in the eastern Mediterranean region in September and October.
On Wednesday, the Syrian military deployed Russian-supplied drones for the first time, a security source in Damascus said.
The army has received new weaponry from Russia for its fight against jihadists, including at least five fighter jets, a senior Syrian military official told AFP.


US International News
Politics & Government
Syria
Bouthaina Shaaban
Bashar al-Assad


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[mick silver]

now they get all those people back home ........... European Welfare Migrant Crisis .France's Hollande calls for new Syria peace conference (http://news.yahoo.com/frances-hollande-calls-syria-peace-conference-180719547.html) Merkel says Assad must be involved in Syria talks (http://news.yahoo.com/merkel-says-assad-must-involved-syria-talks-015950532.html)

[Horn]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=460&v=pHFnvFbThDE

[mick silver]

The Dangerous Link Between Syria and Ukraine Vladimir Putin has used the fighting in both countries to trap the U.S.
By Eerik-Niiles Kross and Molly K. McKew
September 22, 2015


Share on Facebook (http://api.addthis.com/oexchange/0.8/forward/facebook/offer?pco=tbx32nj-1.0&url=http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/09/putin-syria-ukraine-213173&pubid=politico.com) Share on Twitter (http://api.addthis.com/oexchange/0.8/forward/twitter/offer?pco=tbx32nj-1.0&url=http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/09/putin-syria-ukraine-213173&pubid=politico.com&text=The+Dangerous+Link+Between+Syria+and+Ukraine)

Despite what Vladimir Putin is saying, the United States still staunchly refuses to believe Russia is engaged in a new Cold War—and that the U.S. is losing. But Russia aggressively pushes its own narrative where U.S. leadership is absent. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov seems to be everywhere in recent weeks, speaking several times with his US counterpart and others in the region, selling Russia as a partner for peace and stability when the West is faced with crisis.
Experts from the left and right alike warn that cooperation with Russia on Syria can have potentially disastrous consequences for the U.S., but too many Americans still don’t understand how closely linked these two headline conflicts are, and American policy has yet to confront the reality that Syria and Ukraine are part of the same mission for Russia—the destruction of the post-WWII architecture of the West. To achieve this goal, Russia has pursued a clear policy of disruption, chaos and destabilization—in Ukraine and in the Middle East—in order to force the West to have to partner with Russia to “resolve” the crises it has created.
Story Continued Below




Now, poised to launch a direct military campaign in Syria, Russia wants the U.S. to join a Russian-led coalition against the Islamic State and complete the rehabilitation of Bashar al Assad, or else end up in direct conflict with Russia in the Middle East. Indeed, many of the anti-aircraft and other Russian weapons systems being moved to Syria are more suited to shooting at American drones and assets than anything the Islamic State has access to.
This suggested coalition is little more than a well-constructed trap for the White House and for Europe. Russia created the conflict in Ukraine. Their military support for Assad fuels a bloody civil war and a refugee crisis from Syria. Russian efforts have also materially aided in the creation of the Islamic State—the wealthiest, best-armed terrorist network in history.
Understanding how Russia has engineered the false choice between accepting Russia as a dominant force in its “sphere of influence” or the proliferation of conflict is essential to accepting that neither choice is the answer.
***
Too often policy analysts debate whether the Kremlin is strategic or merely tactical in its approach to foreign policy. But the answer doesn’t matter. They don’t need a master plan when one clear strategic objective drives decision-making: make the U.S. the enemy—and make them look weak. The Kremlin has been opportunistic and decisive in grabbing a position of strength—in the Middle East and in Europe—while U.S. attention has waned and retracted.
When the civil uprising against Assad first began in Syria, the rebellion’s leaders hoped for western support. Support for the rebels was slow to materialize, despite early calls for Assad to leave power, but Russia—eager to protect its military foothold on the Mediterranean and on the southern flank of NATO—was quick to line up against U.S. policy and supply Assad with arms, military advisers, intelligence and political support. After Syria deployed chemical weapons against rebels and civilians in August 2013, Russia brokered a deal with the U.S. to save Assad from outside military intervention.
READ MORE

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When America Hated Catholics (http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/09/pope-francis-visit-catholic-history-213177) By JOSH ZEITZ


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In The Arena (http://www.politico.com/magazine/tag/in-the-arena)
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Greece’s Century-Long Subjugation (http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/09/greeces-century-long-subjugation-213156) By NICHOLAS G. KARAMBELAS





Russian support for Assad has allowed the civil war to continue for years at such an intense level of bloodshed and destruction. But shipments of armaments were not their only tool for saving their primary regional ally. They are also involved in building an engine of terrorism to open a second front in the Syrian war.
By the time the chemical weapons deal was signed, the nature of the war in Syria had changed. Before the 2014 Sochi Olympics—as Russia issued warnings about potential attacks by North Caucasus extremists and moved military assets into the region for the seizure of Crimea—there were rumors, now confirmed by Russian investigative journalists, that Russia was actively exporting fighters from the North Caucasus to Syria. Elena Milashina, writing in Novaya Gazeta, documented how, beginning in 2011, the FSB established safe routes for militants in the North Caucasus to reach Syria via Turkey. Local FSB officers, sometimes with the help of local intermediaries and community leaders, encouraged and aided jihadis to leave Russia for the fighting in the Middle East, in many cases providing documents that allowed them to travel.
It probably wasn’t a hard sell for the FSB to make to nascent jihadis: Go fight in the desert, for infinite riches and glory, or stay in Russia, where the security services had pretty good cover to kill a lot of them.
A lot of them left. In late 2012, Russian-speaking jihadis began to arrive in Syria. According to regional intelligence sources who have closely tracked their movements and activities, the Russian-speakers negotiated the unification of the Islamic States in Syria and in Iraq, creating the current Islamic State formation.
Suddenly, the war in Syria was “confusing” to American policymakers seeking a way out of the war and an end to Assad’s regime. There were “good rebels” and “bad rebels,” and the U.S. couldn’t decide which side to support. These tactics were similar to the irregular warfare Russia would deploy in Ukraine.
The war at that point also turned away from Assad and Syria, and toward Iraq instead. The western front of ISIL was led by Russian-speakers; the eastern commanders included disenfranchised Soviet/Russian-trained Saddam-era Sunni military officers. From the beginning, their efforts were closely coordinated. There were reports from Kurdish forces of Russian operatives at secret outposts in the desert.


Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/09/putin-syria-ukraine-213173#ixzz3msD7fyq7

[mick silver]

The US just called out Putin over ISIS as Russian soldiers join the fight in Syria

Natasha Bertrand (http://www.businessinsider.com/author/natasha-bertrand) and Michael B Kelley (http://www.businessinsider.com/author/michael-b-kelley)




Sep. 9, 2015, 1:04 PM
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http://static6.businessinsider.com/image/55f057149dd7cc24008b903a-480/putin.jpgREUTERS/Sergei KarpukhinRussia's President Vladimir Putin reacts at a news conference after the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Ufa, Russia, July 10, 2015.



A Reuters report confirms (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/09/us-mideast-crisis-syria-idUSKCN0R91H720150909) that Russians are taking part in the fighting on the side of Syrian President Bashar Assad.
"The Russians are no longer just advisors," a Lebanese source told Reuters.
"The Russians have decided to join the war against terrorism."
Russia's increased (http://www.businessinsider.com/syrian-army-official-we-are-seeing-a-lot-more-russian-military-experts-these-days-2015-9) military involvement in Syria has US officials concerned and outright skeptical over Russian President Vladimir Putin's intentions.
Putin has (http://www.businessinsider.com/putin-is-upping-military-intervention-in-syria-2015-9) said that Russia wants to "create some kind of an international coalition to fight terrorism and extremism."
The US State Department isn't buying it.
"Russia is not a member of the coalition against ISIL, and what we’ve said is that their continued support to the Assad regime has actually fostered the growth of ISIL inside Syria and made the situation worse,” State Department spokesman John Kirby said (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/09/world/europe/us-moves-to-block-russian-military-buildup-in-syria.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0) on Wednesday, using an acronym for the Islamic State (aka ISIS and Daesh).
“If they want to be helpful against ISIL, the way to do it is to stop arming and assisting and supporting Bashar al-Assad.”
Russian drones and fighter planes are surveilling non-ISIS rebels (http://www.businessinsider.com/putin-is-upping-military-intervention-in-syria-2015-9) in the country's north — Assad considers all rebels "terrorists" or "extremists" — and Russian armored-personnel carriers with Russian-speaking troops (https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2015/09/07/are-there-russian-troops-fighting-in-syria/) were involved in fighting.
Russia has also set up an air-traffic-control tower and brought housing units for up to 1,000 personnel to Latakia in the country's west, and Reuters reports (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/09/us-mideast-crisis-syria-usa-idUSKCN0R91TA20150909?utm_source=twitter) that two tank-landing ships and additional aircraft have arrived.
"Putin is taking steps to shore up Assad and at the same showing that he is willing to go further than the US and coalition partners to meet his stated regional goals," Boris Zilberman, a Middle East and Russia expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told BI by email.

http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/55f05d47bd86ef1c008b8ff9-312-234/skitch%20syria%20map%20legend.jpgIUCA/Amanda Macias/Business InsiderThe news comes as Al Qaeda-linked rebels took full control of the Idlib province, which borders Latakia and is just the second province no longer under government control (along with ISIS-controlled Raqqa).
"Assad has lost significant territory over the past months; Putin is not about to tolerate his ouster," geopolitical expert Ian Bremmer (https://twitter.com/ianbremmer?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp% 7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), the president of Eurasia Group, told Business Insider in an email.
Over the course of the 55-month Syrian conflict, Russia has provided the Assad regime with supplies — including guns, (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/all-sides-hedging-bets-on-flow-of-arms-to-syria/2013/05/29/6464af26-c7bf-11e2-8da7-d274bc611a47_story.html) grenades, (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/all-sides-hedging-bets-on-flow-of-arms-to-syria/2013/05/29/6464af26-c7bf-11e2-8da7-d274bc611a47_story.html) tank parts (http://www.timesofisrael.com/finland-busts-tank-parts-shipment-to-syria/), fighter jets (http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57587007/russia-to-sell-mig-jet-fighters-to-syria-jet-maker-says/?utm_source=feedly), advanced antiship cruise missiles (http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-is-stilling-supporting-assad-2013-5), long-range air-defense missiles (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/bashar-al-assad-says-syria-has-received-missiles-from-russia/2013/05/30/01c6ba04-c930-11e2-8da7-d274bc611a47_story.html), military officers as advisers (http://www.businessinsider.com/russian-general-killed-by-syrian-rebels-2012-10), diplomatic cover (http://www.nbcnews.com/id/51940996/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa/t/russia-assad-foes-must-come-syria-meeting-without-conditions/), and lots (http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-is-printing-money-for-syria-to-pay-government-expenses-2012-6) of cash (http://www.propublica.org/article/flight-records-list-russia-sending-tons-of-cash-to-syria).
The US is moving to block (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/09/world/europe/us-moves-to-block-russian-military-buildup-in-syria.html?smid=tw-share) the latest buildup by asking countries such as Greece and Bulgaria to shut their airspace to Russian transport planes. Over the weekend, a Russian plane reportedly landed at the same airfield in Latakia, flying over Greece and Bulgaria to transport Russian troops to Syria.
Though Bulgaria has complied, Greek officials say they are still looking into the request.
Unconfirmed sightings of Russian infantry vehicles and military advisers in Syria has prompted further rumors that Putin has already put boots on the ground and may be preparing a large-scale counterterrorism operation alongside Iranian proxy militias.

http://static5.businessinsider.com/image/55f014fdeab8ea9c27def433-7999-5818/sept9.jpgInstitute for United Conflict AnalystsThe operation has less to do with fighting ISIS and more to do with countering Western actions that have bolstered rebel forces in the north and threaten to weaken Assad further.
"If the West succeeds in turning the tide of the war while Assad is vulnerable, the political outcomes in Syria are more likely to be dictated by the US," Bremmer said. "Which means Putin needs to bolster Assad now."
Moreover, Zilberman noted, "the extent of Russian involvement may limit whatever options we would consider against Assad’s forces (ie you probably don’t want to drop a bomb on a group of Syrian soldiers and hit a bunch of Russian ones)."
New York University professor Mark Galeotti, an expert in global affairs and Russian and Slavic studies, thinks that Putin is just using the military buildup to pressure the US into joining some "grand anti-ISIS coalition."
"The Russians appear essentially to be providing support at this stage and we only really have a solid take on perhaps a battalion of Naval Infantry (marines) -- some 300-400 men -- being deployed," Galeotti told BI by email.
"That's enough to provide security at Tartus and Latakia air base (from which they seem to be flying reconnaissance drones) and maybe a little stiffening to Syrian forces in a pinch, but we are not talking about a major commitment to front line combat," he said.
"Really, this is just to make Moscow's case that the US should join in some grand anti-ISIS coalition ahead of Putin's visit to NYC and the UN later this month," Galeotti added.

http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/55eed3eebd86ef11008b8974-1280-720/exclusive_2.jpgscreenshotA screenshot from a video showing a Russian armored-personnel carrier taking part in fighting.In any case, Kirby reiterated that Russia's actions have not been helpful.
"The most productive thing that they can do, if they are serious about getting after extremist networks in Syria, is to stop arming and abetting and aiding Bashar al-Assad, the same man who has by his own brutality and violence on his own people allowed ISIL to grow and to spread inside his own country," he said.
For years, Assad has argued that he is fighting terrorism — when, in fact, the US and others have accused him of facilitating the rise (http://www.businessinsider.com/assads-plan-to-work-with-the-west-2014-8) of ISIS.
"The [Assad] regime is a terrorism generator of epic proportion, engaging in state terrorism against its own people and inciting terrorism from its opponents," a recent Soufan Group note reported (http://www.businessinsider.com/assad-is-the-best-isis-recruiting-tool-2015-8#ixzz3lGByYFXt).
"There is no justifying the actions of a group like the Islamic State or al-Nusra ... but the Assad regime's wholesale slaughter of civilians provides the groups with radicalized supporters far faster than Assad's military can then fight them."
SEE ALSO: We are witnessing 'a better recruiting tool for ISIS than any propaganda' (http://www.businessinsider.com/assad-is-the-best-isis-recruiting-tool-2015-8#ixzz3lGC80ou3)
NOW WATCH: Russia reveals new high-tech weapon vehicles in a rehearsal for the country's biggest military parade (http://www.businessinsider.com/wwii-anniversary-parade-russian-military-vehicles-moscow-2015-5)





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[LIST]
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[Ponce]

It was time for someone to stand up for those who cannot defend themselves on their own..... KUDOS TO RUSSIA.

Like the kid who punch out the guy who was abusing the blind kid?......when you don't do something you are then part if it.
And that's why the US is part if the killing and abuse of the Palestinians by the Zionist.

And if you didn't like what I wrote then...........UP YOURS.

V

[Horn]

With Assad remaining in power thru most anything, you have to wonder why Russia is becoming activated.

Setting out on terror campaigns is not something a country suffering economic sanctions and woe does typically.

Unless its some form of desperate measures to reduce or relieve your financial burden.

[mick silver]

gas pipe line

[monty]

gas pipe line


That is what I'm thinking.

[Horn]

How long has a gas pipe been there for? It still has to be filled at one end.

Where Ukraine was a jousting tournament, Syria looks like a "radicalized" islam farm and meat grinder.

[monty]

http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/09/16/does-putin-russia-plan-for-syria-military-escalation/

Does Putin Have a Plan for Syria


https://foreignpolicymag.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/gettyimages-488264726_putinsyria1.jpg



There is no doubt that Russia is stepping up its military presence in Syria in support of President Bashar al-Assad. A Sept. 9 Reuters report (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/09/us-mideast-crisis-syria-exclusive-idUSKCN0R91H720150909) documented Russian forces participating in military operations in Syria. Photo evidence published (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3226009/First-picture-proof-Russia-troops-ground-Syria-helping-dictator-Bashar-Al-Assad-ve-APRIL.html) in a Daily Mail report suggests that Russian troops have been on the ground in Syria at least since April. Other reports of Moscow’s increased military buildup there have mentioned additional deliveries of advanced weaponry to the Assad regime, a military advance team, and prefabricated housing units sent to an airfield near Latakia. A new satellite image obtained (http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/09/14/this-satellite-image-leaves-no-doubt-that-russia-is-throwing-troops-and-aircraft-into-syria-latakia-airport-construction/) by Foreign Policyconfirms the scale of the construction to accommodate additional Russian troops and aircraft. If there was any doubt about who’s fueling this war, now Moscow reportedly (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/16/us-russia-syria-lpg-idUSKCN0PQ1DC20150716) plans to supply Assad with an annual 200,000 tons of liquefied petroleum gas through Kerch, a port in the Crimean peninsula, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in March 2014.


Predictably, the Kremlin will not comment (http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/kremlin-declines-comment-whether-russian-troops-fighting-syria-n424866) on whether Russian troops are fighting in Syria. But Moscow’s clearly not hiding: On Sept. 9, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria V. Zakharova said (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/10/world/middleeast/russia-syria-military-advisers.html?_r=0), “We have been supplying Syria with arms and military equipment for a long time … and we can’t understand the anti-Russian hysteria about this.”


Indeed, Moscow has been Assad’s staunch supporter since the beginning of the Syrian uprising in March 2011, propping up the Damascus regime with weapons, advisors, loans, and political cover on the U.N. Security Council. But it’s clear that a change is underway in Russia’s involvement in the civil war. The question is why. The answers range from naval strategy to international diplomacy to Russia’s domestic politics.


For the past several weeks, Russian President Vladimir Putin has been advancing (http://www.businessinsider.com/r-russias-putin-calls-for-international-coalition-on-extremism-2015-9) his idea for a “broad coalition” to fight the Islamic State — an idea that the Iran deal made possible, according to top Russian officials. The deal “removes the barriers — largely artificial — on the way to a broad coalition to fight the Islamic State and other terrorist groups,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/14/russia-iran-deal-broad-coalition-isis) in July. Keeping Assad in power is central to Putin’s plan. His speech at the U.N. General Assembly later this month is expected (http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/World/2015/Sep-10/314701-kremlin-declines-comment-on-whether-russian-troops-engaged-in-combat-in-syria.ashx) to focus on this topic.


If Putin succeeds in convincing the world that Russia is indispensable in the fight against the Islamic State, this could help end the international isolation that followed his annexation of Crimea and gain Putin legitimacy by redirecting the world’s attention toward what the Russian president describes as a common fight against a greater enemy — a fight bigger than differences with the West over Ukraine. This is what he is after; fighting the Islamic State is hardly the priority. It may be working: French President François Hollande expressed hope (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34174382)earlier this month that sanctions against Russia would be lifted. Hollande’s statement coincided (http://www.wsj.com/articles/frances-hollande-says-country-to-accept-24-000-refugees-1441619184) with his announcement of French preparations for airstrikes against the Islamic State in Syria. In a climate where some in the West appear tired of the economic burden that has resulted from sanctions against Russia, Putin is poised to take advantage, offering a partnership of convenience as a prelude to restarting business contacts with an audience that largely has moved on from events in Crimea a year ago.


Assad has been losing ground in Syria in recent months and needs urgent support. And Putin knows well — from Ukraine, in particular — that if he deepens his involvement in the war, the United States is likely to do absolutely nothing about it (http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-09-10/russia-s-syrian-air-base-has-u-s-scrambling-for-a-plan). Russia has many interests in Syria: strategic, cultural, and economic. The Assad regime has been Moscow’s closest ally in the Arab world for over 40 years because Syria had been key to the Soviet Union’s influence in the Middle East. During the Cold War, tens of thousands of Russians moved to Syria while Syrian elites studied at top Russian schools. Intermarriage was common, and, at the time of the Syrian uprising, an estimated 100,000 Russian citizens were living there (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/jul/05/syria-crisis-russia-western-meddling). Moscow had also emerged as Syria’s primary weapon supplier in the years before the Syrian uprising broke out in March 2011. Russian companies have reportedly (http://money.cnn.com/2012/02/09/news/international/russia_syria/)invested approximately $20 billion; giving up Assad would also entail giving up these investments. It’s hard to imagine any new government that might come in Syria being as friendly to Russia.


There are compelling strategic reasons for Moscow to bolster Assad now, too. Syria is Russia’s most important foothold in the region, bordering the Mediterranean, Israel, Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan, and Iraq. Putin has made expansion of Russian sea power a pillar of his third presidential term, and Assad’s fall would mean losing Russia’s only military base outside the post-Soviet space — a naval resupply center in Syria’s port of Tartus. In September 2014, Putin announced (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2766733/President-Vladimir-Putin-orders-vast-expansion-Russia-s-Black-Sea-fleet.html) plans for the massive expansion of Russia’s Black Sea fleet. Keeping the base at Tartus will further project the country’s power into the Mediterranean.


But most importantly, support for Assad fits within Putin’s plans to restore Russia as a great power opposing the West. For the United States, diplomacy is about win-win scenarios, but Putin’s approach is zero-sum. Support for Assad means sticking a thumb in the eye of the White House. He might claim to be fighting “terrorism” by propping up Assad, but it also bolsters Putin’s domestic support; getting citizens to rally around the flag in the face of a perceived external enemy. Indeed, Putin took a similar approach in Ukraine and throughout other parts of former Soviet Union when he claimed (http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-ethnic-russification-baltics-kazakhstan-soviet/25328281.html) the need to protect Russian minorities. At least in the short term, this approach has produced results — after the annexation of Crimea in March 2014, Putin’s approval ratings shot up (http://www.theguardian.com/world/datablog/2015/jul/23/vladimir-putins-approval-rating-at-record-levels) from an all-time low (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/24/us-russia-putin-approval-idUSBRE90N0IX20130124) to over 80 percent.


It’s not the first time he has profited from selectively going to war. Claims (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/14/opinion/dont-trust-putin-on-syria.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0) of fighting terrorism helped propel Putin into power in 2000, following a series of bombings in September 1999 in Moscow and several other Russian cities, for which Putin quickly blamed Islamist terrorists from the Chechen Republic in the North Caucasus.


But in the long run, Putin’s policies may be self-defeating. Moscow may want a limited involvement, but it could be dragged into a real war — and it can’t fight one both in Ukraine and Syria, while also maintaining troops throughout the post-Soviet space as it currently does. Indeed, some Russian analysts have already pointed out (http://newsader.com/specialist/oleg-ponomar-siriya-stanet-dlya-rossii/) that in Syria Putin risks repeating the mistakes of the Soviet Union in Afghanistan in the 1980s — a war that contributed significantly to its fall. Russia’s dire economic state, its declining population, unsustainable (http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/russia-military-spending-by-sergei-guriev-2015-05)defense spending, and other problems in the long run will take their toll. But these trends seem to only fuel Putin’s aggression. Indeed, the weaker Russia gets, the more dangerous it becomes.

[monty]

Russia plans to supply Syria with 200,000 tonnes of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) per year via the Crimean port of Kerch, two trading sources told Reuters.
The plans are a further sign of cooperation between the two countries despite hopes in the West that Russia might stop shielding President Bashar al-Assad from pressure to step aside.
Moscow had been shipping significantly lower volumes of LPG to Syria via Kerch before Russia annexed the Crimea peninsula from Ukraine in March 2014.
The United States and the European Union, which say the seizure of Crimea violates international law, have imposed sanctions on individuals and business in Crimea, which include restrictions on use of the Kerch port. Read more at . . . . . . . . . . .


http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/16/us-russia-syria-lpg-idUSKCN0PQ1DC20150716

[monty]

Turkey treads carefully on new gas pipeline with Russia.


http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/08/turkey-russia-eu-treads-carefully-new-gas-pipeline.html#




http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/files/live/sites/almonitor/files/images/almpics/2015/08/RTR4GAY7.jpg?t=thumbnail_570A new world seemed to be in the making when Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Turkey on Dec. 1. Putin, with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan at his side, announced that Russia and Turkey would boost their multibillion dollar trade by building a new natural gas pipeline, Turkish Stream. Fed up with the European Union’s foot-dragging, the Russian president canceled the South Stream project, which would have carried Russian natural gas under the Black Sea directly into the European Union via Bulgaria.


Putin hoped to accomplish several objectives through Turkish Stream: to enlist Erdogan as an ally (http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/12/russia-turkey-pipeline.html) in Moscow’s natural gas negotiations with EU members Greece, Italy and Austria, and to steer Turkey away from the West and in a more pro-Russian direction. Putin’s visit appeared so promising and the two leaders so defiant that one columnist talked about the “two Rambos, Putin and Erdogan (http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2014/12/turkey-russia-putin-erdogan-meeting.html),” and how they “were taking on the West.”


But despite initially optimistic analyses (http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/12/turkey-russia-natural-gas-blue-stream-tanap.html), Ankara and Moscow have yet to finalize a deal on Turkish Stream. Significant disagreements have slowed down the talks (http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/04/turkey-russia-turkey-stream-project-on-hold.html)between the Turkish Ministry of Energy and Russia’s state-owned Gazprom. In fact, the treacherous nature of the international energy trade could wreck the proposed project.


Part of the problem lies in the conception of Turkish Stream. If completed, the new route would comprise four strings of pipelines, each carrying 15.75 billion cubic meters (556 billion cubic feet) of natural gas per year. Turkey expects to meet its growing domestic demand from one of the pipelines. The remaining three pipelines would carry 47.25 billion cubic meters into European markets through Greece.


One point of discord between Ankara and Moscow is the price of natural gas. During Putin’s December visit, the Russians promised a discount of 10.25% for the gas they were already selling to Turkey. The Turks want to get an official commitment from Russia (http://aaenergyterminal.com/newsMain.php?newsid=5984946) on the discount first. Moscow, however, is reluctant to lower gas prices for existing exports before Ankara signs off on all four pipelines for Turkish Stream. Under current agreements, Turkey has a right to take its case to international mediation, which likely would rule in its favor because of the decrease in global gas prices (http://www.businessinsider.com/the-natural-gas-price-crash-could-be-next-2015-3) since the 2008 economic crisis.


At any rate, the Turkish Ministry of Energy is interested in only one of the pipelines and wants Gazprom to find its own customers in Europe for the other three strings. Gazprom, however, wants Ankara to sign off on all four and help negotiate with European buyers. Economically dynamic but resource-poor, Turkey produces about 45% of its electricity from natural gas, nearly 60% (http://www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis.cfm?iso=TUR) of which comes from Russia (http://www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis.cfm?iso=TUR). Unwilling to assume additional risks and worsen their already excessive dependence on Russia, the Turks are cautious about Turkish Stream.


But even if it were implemented fully, Turkish Stream would be born into a very complicated and treacherous global energy market.


First of all, Russia faces serious competition from Qatar (http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/en/originals/2014/06/russia-qatar-natural-gas-market-cooperation-rivals-lng-putin.html). The Gulf emirate, with the third-largest gas reserves in the world, has built extensive facilities to ship liquefied natural gas to international markets. As a result, global prices have remained stable (http://knoema.com/ncszerf/natural-gas-prices-long-term-forecast-to-2020-data-and-charts) even as demand increased. At a time when Russia deals with decreasing gas revenues, its ability to finance projects such as Turkish Stream becomes questionable.


Geopolitical hurdles are even more serious than market challenges to Turkish Stream. Russia exports a majority of its natural gas through pipelines in Belarus and Ukraine. But because of its troubles with Kiev, Moscow has signaled its intent not to renew transit agreements with Ukraine, set to expire in 2019. Moscow wants to bypass (http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/03/turkey-still-needs-russian-gas-via-ukraine.html) land routes to reach lucrative markets in Europe and beyond.


Nord Stream is one such pipeline that allows Russia to circumvent Ukraine and Belarus and obviates the need for Turkish Stream. With a capacity of 55 billion cubic meters per year, Nord Stream sends Russian natural gas directly into Germany through a pipeline under the Baltic Sea. Because the system is still not working at full capacity, Germany hopes to become the main conduit through which Russian gas would flow into Western European markets. Plans are in place to build Nord Stream II, which would completely destroy the purpose of the four-string version of Turkish Stream.
An official with knowledge of the Turkish-Russian negotiations and their international dimensions told Al-Monitor that Berlin is already trying to get the United States to put pressure on Greece and Turkey (http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/05/turkish-stream-is-it-real-or-a-merely-a-pipe-dream.html) to scrap Turkish Stream. Meanwhile, he argues, Russia is signaling how it could strike a new transit deal with Ukraine to straighten up the capricious Germans and Turks. The official speaking to Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity compared the complicated geopolitical games of Russian natural gas to a “raging orgy” because “it’s never clear who’s screwing who.”


Indeed, many experts are bearish about the fortunes of Turkish Stream. Edward Chow and Zachary Cuyler of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) wrote in a recent article on the CSIS website, “There are many reasons to doubt the feasibility (http://csis.org/publication/new-russian-gas-export-projects-pipe-dreams-pipelines) of the third and fourth strings of Turkish Stream and the South European Pipeline” that would carry Russian gas into the EU. Chow and Cuyler pointed out that “Russia and Europe will continue to be tied together by the gas trade” and “it is foolhardy to attempt to supplant Russian gas in Europe with alternatives from the United States and elsewhere, as some who look at energy through a geopolitical lens have proposed.” It would be best, they say, for Russia to use existing infrastructure and focus on its established markets in Europe.


Volkan Emre, an international energy expert based in Washington, does not dispute Chow and Cuyler’s assessment. He thinks Western countries — especially the United States — “are too hung up on Turkish Stream” and the 47.25 billion cubic meters per year that might flow into Europe via Turkey.


Still, Emre raises one important disagreement with Chow and Cuyler. He says Russia has a good shot at reaching customers beyond Western Europe. “The big bonanza for Russia,” he told Al-Monitor, “would be selling gas to Pakistan, India, China and Japan.”


Regarding Turkey’s energy needs, Emre argues that it should diversify its supplies with pipelines from Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Iran and Iraq. In order to do so, he recommends Turkey to be “more actively involved in the diplomatic attempts to solve the legal disputes in the trans-Caspian gas transits.” He also warns that Turkey should “support the infrastructure developments in Iranian and Iraqi natural gas sectors.” “Even if only some of these projects play out,” he said, “Turkey would become less reliant on Russia and come closer to becoming the energy hub (http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2014/04/realization-turkeys-energy-aspirations-winrow) at the intersection of Europe, Asia and Africa.”

[Horn]

Explains the clearing of refugee camps by Turkey and directing them toward Europe.

Nothing like jumping out of a frying fan (Ukraine) and into the fryer (Syria)

[mick silver]

horn it about power and control of money and I do think that putin cares about his country and he know for it to be great again it will take money and that go alone with power both of those things he has with Russia

[Horn]

Following the defense waring on radicalized islam appears to be the debt money and power making example these days, doesn't it?

So much for the avoiding entanglements approach, into the meat grinder.