EE_
1st January 2016, 11:25 AM
Bush knows he can't win, he's only staying in it to attack Trump for the 'establishment'.
http://static01.nyt.com/images/2016/01/02/us/02Bushplanweb3/02Bushplanweb3-articleLarge.jpg
How Jeb Bush Hopes to Save His Candidacy
By ASHLEY PARKERJAN. 1, 2016
HIALEAH, Fla. — Jeb Bush and his supporters still have a pile of money to spend — remnants of $100 million raised when he seemed early this year to be a sure bet. They have an expansive ground operation in New Hampshire. And allies have just began a new ad campaign in Iowa.
But nothing they have tried so far has lifted Mr. Bush’s terrible poll numbers. And with just four weeks remaining until voting begins, Mr. Bush needs to do something to save his candidacy.
It may be too late: Other campaigns appear to have counted him out altogether. But, in extensive interviews over the past week, aides and key allies to Mr. Bush described a long-shot plan to pull off what seems all but impossible — winning the Republican nomination for president. The plan has six elements:
Stay on the Attack
In late 2015, Mr. Bush called Donald Trump “a jerk,” “unhinged,” and a “chaos candidate.”
Expect more of the same in 2016, when Mr. Bush plans to aim his most aggressive attacks largely at Mr. Trump and Hillary Clinton. Though he was initially slow to take on Mr. Trump, the real estate billionaire turned politician has proved a useful foil. Mr. Bush, the former Florida governor, has cast himself as the only Republican strong enough to stand up to Mr. Trump.
Yet Mr. Bush has also shown himself willing to criticize other contenders from the party’s establishment wing: Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey and Senator Marco Rubio of Florida. On a swing though New Hampshire in December, he knocked Mr. Christie’s economic stewardship of his state, and Right to Rise, the “super PAC” supporting Mr. Bush, on Tuesday released its first ad, for $1.4 million in Iowa, that directly attacks Mr. Rubio, for his Senate attendance record.
Right to Rise has roughly $60 million available to spend as it heads into 2016.
Avoid Embarrassment in Iowa
Mr. Bush knows he is not likely to win Iowa. He just can’t lose there too badly.
In Iowa, Mr. Bush has two main goals: to finish no lower than fifth (third place is the optimistic goal) and, more important, to beat Mr. Christie.
Though Iowa still looms for Mr. Bush as a state to be managed, not conquered, he has at least two more trips there planned before the Feb. 1 caucuses.
Win New Hampshire — or at Least Come in the Top 3
Mr. Bush spoke last month at a town-hall-style meeting in Milford, N.H. Credit Cheryl Senter for The New York Times
Did somebody say “town hall”?
Expect Mr. Bush to practically move to New Hampshire — the state where loyal donors are expecting a turnaround, and where Mr. Bush’s strategists believe he needs to finish ahead of Mr. Christie, Gov. John R. Kasich of Ohio, and Mr. Rubio, to emerge as the establishment’s alternative to Mr. Trump or Senator Ted Cruz of Texas.
The campaign has five offices and 20 paid staff members throughout the state, with 20 more coming in January. Mr. Bush plans to spend at least half of his time there, with trips every week before the Feb. 9 primary, and he recently called it his “second home.”
Right to Rise has reserved an additional roughly $10 million in airtime in the state, including two Super Bowl ads, and the Bush campaign plans to go on the air there on Monday, and not come down until the primary.
The campaign is also microtargeting voters, hitting supporters of the Second Amendment with a gun-focused message and those who worry about terrorism with a national security pitch.
Mr. Bush, who has held 29 town-hall-style events in New Hampshire so far, will continue focusing on these question-and-answer sessions with voters, where his aides believe his wonky but freewheeling style connects.
Early on, the campaign briefly discussed whether Mr. Bush should focus almost exclusively on New Hampshire, as Mr. Christie has done, but opted for a broader strategy. By doing so, his advisers believe, Mr. Bush will be better positioned to build momentum if he pulls off a strong New Hampshire showing.
If Mr. Bush can re-energize his troubled campaign in New Hampshire, his aides believe, he can seriously compete in South Carolina, a state where they hope his national security message will resonate.
Woo Senator Lindsey Graham
All throughout the campaign, Mr. Bush had made a point of texting Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina weekly, just to check in. On the morning Mr. Graham dropped out of the race for president, Mr. Bush was ready with the hard sell.
Mr. Bush immediately sent him a quick message, and the two men spoke on the phone later that day, when Mr. Bush made his pitch — that he was best prepared to be commander-in-chief and most qualified on Mr. Graham’s key issue, national security.
Mr. Graham has publicly said he has no plans to endorse anyone right now. Many believe that privately, however, he is strongly leaning toward Mr. Bush, but that he does not want to support him unless he thinks Mr. Bush can actually win the nomination.
Meanwhile, Mr. Bush has already picked up the endorsement of over 20 Graham supporters.
The Big Brother, and the Bush Alumni Network
Another key for Mr. Bush in South Carolina is his older brother, former President George W. Bush.
Though no final decision has been made, aides say the campaign is most likely to deploy the former president in the state — where he remains popular — sometime after the New Hampshire primary.
But how and where to use the 43rd president is a vexing question for the campaign. George Bush is certain to remind voters that his brother hails from a political dynasty. And he could force Jeb Bush to confront the decision to invade Iraq, an issue the candidate stumbled over early on. Aides further worry that the former president, a charismatic and agile campaigner, could outshine his brother on the stump.
The Bush campaign is also planning to tap the family’s broad alumni network — supporters of his father, the first President George Bush, of his brother, and friends from his time as governor — to help with get-out-the-vote efforts in the first four early- voting states. They plan to use the volunteers as “validators,” making phone calls and going door to door to offer testimonials of how they personally know Mr. Bush.
Mr. Bush’s super PAC, has so far spent tens of millions in television ads that have largely failed to help his standing in the polls. But the group will continue the ad campaign, keeping its focus on Mr. Trump, but also beginning to contrast Mr. Bush with his rivals for the party’s more mainstream base.
Right to Rise has started a voter identification and canvassing program in New Hampshire, and in addition to television ads, it is putting money behind radio, mail, and digital in the early states, including some in the so-called S.E.C. Primary on March 1. The group also already reserved a nearly $17 million television ad buy for the March states.
“We’re prepared for a long process and think Jeb’s proven judgment, experience and vision sets up a clear contrast to Donald Trump,” said Paul Lindsay, a Right to Rise spokesman.
And the process will be long, indeed. On Wednesday, the Bush campaign announced yet another shake-up, redeploying roughly 60 staffers to help in the first four early states and pulling $3 million in airtime it had reserved in Iowa and South Carolina.
Rival campaigns suggest the move shows that the Bush team is struggling to raise hard dollars from increasingly skittish donors. Any Bush comeback, they say, will require not just substantial skill, but more than a little luck.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/02/us/politics/jeb-bush-presidential-campaign.html?_r=0
http://static01.nyt.com/images/2016/01/02/us/02Bushplanweb3/02Bushplanweb3-articleLarge.jpg
How Jeb Bush Hopes to Save His Candidacy
By ASHLEY PARKERJAN. 1, 2016
HIALEAH, Fla. — Jeb Bush and his supporters still have a pile of money to spend — remnants of $100 million raised when he seemed early this year to be a sure bet. They have an expansive ground operation in New Hampshire. And allies have just began a new ad campaign in Iowa.
But nothing they have tried so far has lifted Mr. Bush’s terrible poll numbers. And with just four weeks remaining until voting begins, Mr. Bush needs to do something to save his candidacy.
It may be too late: Other campaigns appear to have counted him out altogether. But, in extensive interviews over the past week, aides and key allies to Mr. Bush described a long-shot plan to pull off what seems all but impossible — winning the Republican nomination for president. The plan has six elements:
Stay on the Attack
In late 2015, Mr. Bush called Donald Trump “a jerk,” “unhinged,” and a “chaos candidate.”
Expect more of the same in 2016, when Mr. Bush plans to aim his most aggressive attacks largely at Mr. Trump and Hillary Clinton. Though he was initially slow to take on Mr. Trump, the real estate billionaire turned politician has proved a useful foil. Mr. Bush, the former Florida governor, has cast himself as the only Republican strong enough to stand up to Mr. Trump.
Yet Mr. Bush has also shown himself willing to criticize other contenders from the party’s establishment wing: Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey and Senator Marco Rubio of Florida. On a swing though New Hampshire in December, he knocked Mr. Christie’s economic stewardship of his state, and Right to Rise, the “super PAC” supporting Mr. Bush, on Tuesday released its first ad, for $1.4 million in Iowa, that directly attacks Mr. Rubio, for his Senate attendance record.
Right to Rise has roughly $60 million available to spend as it heads into 2016.
Avoid Embarrassment in Iowa
Mr. Bush knows he is not likely to win Iowa. He just can’t lose there too badly.
In Iowa, Mr. Bush has two main goals: to finish no lower than fifth (third place is the optimistic goal) and, more important, to beat Mr. Christie.
Though Iowa still looms for Mr. Bush as a state to be managed, not conquered, he has at least two more trips there planned before the Feb. 1 caucuses.
Win New Hampshire — or at Least Come in the Top 3
Mr. Bush spoke last month at a town-hall-style meeting in Milford, N.H. Credit Cheryl Senter for The New York Times
Did somebody say “town hall”?
Expect Mr. Bush to practically move to New Hampshire — the state where loyal donors are expecting a turnaround, and where Mr. Bush’s strategists believe he needs to finish ahead of Mr. Christie, Gov. John R. Kasich of Ohio, and Mr. Rubio, to emerge as the establishment’s alternative to Mr. Trump or Senator Ted Cruz of Texas.
The campaign has five offices and 20 paid staff members throughout the state, with 20 more coming in January. Mr. Bush plans to spend at least half of his time there, with trips every week before the Feb. 9 primary, and he recently called it his “second home.”
Right to Rise has reserved an additional roughly $10 million in airtime in the state, including two Super Bowl ads, and the Bush campaign plans to go on the air there on Monday, and not come down until the primary.
The campaign is also microtargeting voters, hitting supporters of the Second Amendment with a gun-focused message and those who worry about terrorism with a national security pitch.
Mr. Bush, who has held 29 town-hall-style events in New Hampshire so far, will continue focusing on these question-and-answer sessions with voters, where his aides believe his wonky but freewheeling style connects.
Early on, the campaign briefly discussed whether Mr. Bush should focus almost exclusively on New Hampshire, as Mr. Christie has done, but opted for a broader strategy. By doing so, his advisers believe, Mr. Bush will be better positioned to build momentum if he pulls off a strong New Hampshire showing.
If Mr. Bush can re-energize his troubled campaign in New Hampshire, his aides believe, he can seriously compete in South Carolina, a state where they hope his national security message will resonate.
Woo Senator Lindsey Graham
All throughout the campaign, Mr. Bush had made a point of texting Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina weekly, just to check in. On the morning Mr. Graham dropped out of the race for president, Mr. Bush was ready with the hard sell.
Mr. Bush immediately sent him a quick message, and the two men spoke on the phone later that day, when Mr. Bush made his pitch — that he was best prepared to be commander-in-chief and most qualified on Mr. Graham’s key issue, national security.
Mr. Graham has publicly said he has no plans to endorse anyone right now. Many believe that privately, however, he is strongly leaning toward Mr. Bush, but that he does not want to support him unless he thinks Mr. Bush can actually win the nomination.
Meanwhile, Mr. Bush has already picked up the endorsement of over 20 Graham supporters.
The Big Brother, and the Bush Alumni Network
Another key for Mr. Bush in South Carolina is his older brother, former President George W. Bush.
Though no final decision has been made, aides say the campaign is most likely to deploy the former president in the state — where he remains popular — sometime after the New Hampshire primary.
But how and where to use the 43rd president is a vexing question for the campaign. George Bush is certain to remind voters that his brother hails from a political dynasty. And he could force Jeb Bush to confront the decision to invade Iraq, an issue the candidate stumbled over early on. Aides further worry that the former president, a charismatic and agile campaigner, could outshine his brother on the stump.
The Bush campaign is also planning to tap the family’s broad alumni network — supporters of his father, the first President George Bush, of his brother, and friends from his time as governor — to help with get-out-the-vote efforts in the first four early- voting states. They plan to use the volunteers as “validators,” making phone calls and going door to door to offer testimonials of how they personally know Mr. Bush.
Mr. Bush’s super PAC, has so far spent tens of millions in television ads that have largely failed to help his standing in the polls. But the group will continue the ad campaign, keeping its focus on Mr. Trump, but also beginning to contrast Mr. Bush with his rivals for the party’s more mainstream base.
Right to Rise has started a voter identification and canvassing program in New Hampshire, and in addition to television ads, it is putting money behind radio, mail, and digital in the early states, including some in the so-called S.E.C. Primary on March 1. The group also already reserved a nearly $17 million television ad buy for the March states.
“We’re prepared for a long process and think Jeb’s proven judgment, experience and vision sets up a clear contrast to Donald Trump,” said Paul Lindsay, a Right to Rise spokesman.
And the process will be long, indeed. On Wednesday, the Bush campaign announced yet another shake-up, redeploying roughly 60 staffers to help in the first four early states and pulling $3 million in airtime it had reserved in Iowa and South Carolina.
Rival campaigns suggest the move shows that the Bush team is struggling to raise hard dollars from increasingly skittish donors. Any Bush comeback, they say, will require not just substantial skill, but more than a little luck.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/02/us/politics/jeb-bush-presidential-campaign.html?_r=0