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vacuum
24th January 2016, 09:02 PM
Why the Black Hole of Deflation Is Swallowing the Entire World … Even After Central Banks Have Pumped Trillions Into the Economy Posted on January 24, 2016 (http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2016/01/black-hole-deflation-swallowing-entire-world-even-central-banks-pumped-trillions-economy.html) by WashingtonsBlog (http://www.washingtonsblog.com/author/washingtonsblog)

Deflation Threatens to Swallow the World Many high-powered people and institutions say that deflation is threatening much of the world’s economy …
China may export deflation (http://www.businessinsider.com/china-exporting-deflation-2016-1) to the rest of the world.
Japan is mired in deflation (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-companies-deflation-idUSKCN0UY2T2).
Economists are afraid that deflation will hit Hong Kong (http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/economy/article/1903712/bleak-outlook-economists-fear-deflation-hong-kong-consumers).
The Telegraph reported (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12093807/RBS-cries-sell-everything-as-deflationary-crisis-nears.html) last week:

RBS has advised clients to brace for a “cataclysmic year” and a global deflationary crisis, warning that major stock markets could fall by a fifth and oil may plummet to $16 a barrel.
***
Andrew Roberts, the bank’s research chief for European economics and rates, said that global trade and loans are contracting, a nasty cocktail for corporate balance sheets and equity earnings.
The Independent notes (http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/with-the-markets-in-turmoil-the-risk-of-deflation-is-high-a6823816.html):

Lower oil prices could push leading economies into deflation. Just look at the latest inflation rates – calculated before oil fell below $30 a barrel. In the UK and France, inflation is running at an almost invisible 0.2 per cent per annum; Germany is at 0.3 per cent and the US at 0.5 per cent.
Almost certainly these annual rates will soon fall below zero and so, at the very least, we shall be experiencing ‘technical’ deflation. Technical deflation is a short period of gently falling prices that does no harm. The real thing works like a doomsday machine and engenders a downward spiral that is difficult to stop and brings about a 1930s style slump.

Referring to the risk of deflation, two American central bankers indicated their worries last week. James Bullard, the head of the St Louis Federal Reserve, said falling inflation expectations were “worrisome”, while Charles Evans of the Chicago Fed, said the situation was “troubling”.
Deflation will likely nail Europe (http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=0866b653-6090-43a3-adaf-7d2555878687):

Research Team at TDS suggests that the euro area looks set to endure five consecutive months of deflation, starting in February.
***
“The further collapse in oil prices and what is likely spillover into core prices means the ECB’s 2016 inflation tracking is likely to be almost a full percentage point below their forecast of just six weeks ago.”
(Indeed, many say that Europe is stuck in a depression (http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2014/12/economy-worse-great-depression.html).)
The U.S. might seem better, but a top analyst said last year: “Core inflation in the US would be just as low as in the Eurozone if measured on the same basis” (http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/03/edwards-core-inflation-us-just-low-eurozone-measured-basis.html).
The National Center for Policy Analysis reported (http://healthblog.ncpa.org/cpi-prescription-prices-finally-drop-amid-general-deflation/) last week:

Medical prices grew 0.1 percent, versus a decrease of 0.1 percent for all other items, in December’s Consumer Price Index (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm).
In addition (http://www.alt-market.com/articles/2787-the-us-is-at-the-center-of-the-global-economic-meltdown):

Trucking freight (http://fleetowner.com/fleet-management/ata-truck-tonnage-dipped-november) in the U.S. is in steep decline, with freight companies pointing to a “glut in inventories” and a fall in demand as the culprit.
Morgan Stanley’s freight transportation update (http://www.mypurchasingcenter.com/purchasing/profiles/ism-vermont/blog/freight-transportation-survey-results-morgan-stanle/) indicates a collapse in freight demand worse than that seen during 2009.
The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of global freight rates and thus a measure of global demand for shipping of raw materials, has collapsed to even more dismal historic lows. Hucksters in the mainstream continue to push the lie that the fall in the BDI is due to an “overabundance of new ships.” However, the CEO of A.P. Moeller-Maersk, the world’s largest shipping line, put that nonsense to rest when he admitted (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-08/global-gdp-worse-than-official-forecasts-show-maersk-ceo-says) in November that “global growth is slowing down” and “[t]rade is currently significantly weaker than it normally would be under the growth forecasts we see.”
Indeed, shipping seems to have totally collapsed (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-11/nothing-moving-baltic-dry-crashes-insiders-warn-commerce-has-come-halt), and Bloomberg notes that “hiring a 1,100-foot merchant vessel would set you back less than the price of renting a Ferrari for a day (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-20/cheaper-than-ferraris-ship-rates-crushed-as-china-slows-chart).”
And the velocity of money has crashed far worse than during the Great Depression (http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/06/an-important-economic-indicator-money-velocity-crashes-far-worse-than-during-the-great-depression.html).
And see this (http://www.businessinsider.com/george-soros-comments-at-davos-2016-1).
Why Didn’t the Central Banks’ Pumping Trillions Into the Economy Prevent Deflation? But how could deflation be threatening the globe when the central banks have pumped many trillions into the world economy?
Initially, quantitative easing (QE) – instituted by most central banks (http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2012/05/this-is-the-first-time-in-history-that-all-central-banks-have-printed-money-at-the-same-time-and-its-failing-miserably.html) worldwide – actually causes DEFLATION (http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/08/the-federal-reserve-which-created-quantitative-easing-admits-qe-doesnt-work.html).
In addition, governments on both sides of the Atlantic (http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2011/01/failing-to-prosecute-financial-fraud-on-either-side-of-the-atlantic-is-extending-our-economic-crisis.html) have encouraged bank manipulation and fraud (http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2012/07/european-and-american-governments.html) to try to paper over their problems.
Why’s this a problem?
Because fraud was one of the main causes of the Great Depression and the Great Recession, but nothing (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/10/business/global/in-germany-little-appetite-to-change-troubled-banking-system.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0) has been done to rein in fraud today (http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2010/10/fraud-caused-great-depression-and-this.html). And governments have virtually made it official policy (http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2013/03/the-government-has-it-bass-ackwards-failing-to-prosecute-criminal-fraud-by-the-big-banks-is-killing-the-economy.html) not to prosecute fraud.
Fraud is an economy-killer, and trying to prevent deflation while allowing a breakdown in the rule of law is like pumping blood into a patient without suturing his gaping wounds (http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2013/09/what-both-sides-are-missing-in-the-debt-ceiling-debate-2.html).
The government also chose to artificially prop up asset prices … while letting the Main Street economy tank (http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2016/01/high-level-federal-reserve-official-fed-intentionally-front-loaded-enormous-stock-market-rally-order-create-wealth-effect.html).
Governments also pretended that massive amounts of public and private debt are healthy and sustainable … but they (http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2016/01/top-economist-predicted-2008-crash-confirms-alternative-financial-sites-saying-decade.html) are (http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/11/shocking-little-known-facts-about-debt.html) not (http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/09/are-we-heading-into-a-debt-supernova.html).
And the trillions in central bank money never really made into the real economy (http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2013/06/81-5-of-money-created-through-quantitative-easing-is-sitting-there-gathering-dust-instead-of-helping-the-economy.html), but were handed under the table to the fatcats. For example:


The Fed threw money at “several billionaires and tens of multi-millionaires” (http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2011/10/the-fed-bails-out-gaddafis-libyan-bank-arab-banking-corp-of-bahrain-banks-of-bavaria-korea-and-mexico-but-shafts-america.html), including billionaire businessman H. Wayne Huizenga, billionaire Michael Dell of Dell computer, billionaire hedge fund manager John Paulson, billionaire private equity honcho J. Christopher Flowers, and the wife of Morgan Stanley CEO John Mack



The Fed also bailed out wealthy corporations, including hedge funds, McDonald’s and Harley-Davidson (http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2010/12/fed-data-shows-foreign-banks-huge-beneficiaries-of-emergency-lending-programs-hedge-funds-mcdonald%E2%80%99s-harley-davidson-and-others-also-bailed-out.html)



The Fed has been bailing out foreign banks … more than Main Street or the American people (http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2013/07/the-federal-reserve-is-bailing-out-foreign-banks-more-than-the-american-people-or-economy.html). The foreign banks bailed out by the Fed include Gaddafi’s Libyan bank, the Arab Banking Corp. of Bahrain, and the Banks of Bavaria, Korea and Mexico (http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2011/10/the-fed-bails-out-gaddafis-libyan-bank-arab-banking-corp-of-bahrain-banks-of-bavaria-korea-and-mexico-but-shafts-america.html)



The Fed has intentionally discouraged banks from lending to Main Street (http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2013/06/81-5-of-money-created-through-quantitative-easing-is-sitting-there-gathering-dust-instead-of-helping-the-economy.html), in a misguided attempt to curb inflation

By choosing the big banks over the little guy (http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2012/08/top-economists-iceland-did-it-right-everyone-else-is-doing-it-wrong.html), the government has doomed BOTH (http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2011/08/by-choosing-the-big-banks-over-the-little-guy-the-government-is-dooming-both.html).
In addition, bad government policy (http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2013/09/bad-government-policy-has-created-the-worst-inequality-in-world-history-and-it-is-destroying-our-economy.html) has created the worst inequality on record (http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/01/poll-people-world-blame-bad-government-policy-runaway-inequality.html) … and inequality is an economy-killer (http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2014/08/standard-poors-runaway-inequality-dampens-gdp-growth-leads-boombust-cycles-discourages-trade-investment-hiring-produces-less-competitive-workforce.html).
What Do the Economists Say? We asked three outstanding economists why central banks pumping trillions into the world economy hasn’t worked to prevent deflation.
Professor Michael Hudson (http://michael-hudson.com/about/) – Distinguished Research Professor of Economics at the University of Missouri, Kansas City, and economic advisor to governments worldwide – told Washington’s Blog:

The debts were left in place in 2008 instead of being written down. So the economy is now in a classic debt deflation. QE seeks to inflate asset markets, not the real economy. The choice in 2008 was whether to bail out the banks or the economy — and the former were bailed out — the political Donor Class.
Economics professor Steve Keen (http://fass.kingston.ac.uk/faculty/staff/cv.php?staffnum=1043) – the Head Of School Of Economics, History & Politics at Kingston University in London – has previously agreed, saying: we’ll have “a never-ending depression unless we repudiate the debt, which never should have been extended in the first place” (http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2011/07/economics-professor-well-have-never.html).
Professor Keen tells Washington’s Blog:

The simple reason is that, with the possible exception of the Bank of England, none of the Central Banks (and very few of the private banks themselves) understand how money is created. To create money, you have to put money into bank deposit accounts–thus increasing bank liabilities–at the same time as you expand the assets of the banks. [Background (http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2016/01/loophole-allows-banks-not-companies-create-money-thin-air.html).]
QE hasn’t done that.
In the USA, they’ve simply bought privately created bonds–normally MBSs–off the banks. This shuffles the asset side of the banks’s ledgers (by exchanging government-created money for overvalued private bonds) but doesn’t change the liability side directly–so no money is necessarily created.
In the UK, the CB buys those bonds off pension and insurance funds, which does create money–but it creates it in the deposit accounts of companies who are legally obliged to buy assets with that money (shares and other bonds) rather than goods and services produced by the real economy.
So QE as practised has been irrelevant to the real economy, leaving the deflationary forces created by the huge private debt bubble to rage on free.
And Professor Bill Black – Professor of Economics and Law at the University of Missouri, America’s top expert on white collar fraud, and the senior S&L prosecutor who put more than 1,000 top executives in jail for fraud – tells Washington’s Blog:

Everything that criminology and economics teaches is that if financial elites are allowed to cheat with impunity they will make themselves rich at the people’s expense and corrupt democratic government.
Black previously explained that we’ve known for “hundreds of years” that failure to punish white collar criminals creates incentives for more economic crimes and further destruction of the economy (http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2011/02/william-black-slams-financial-commission-for-failing-to-use-the-f-word-fraud-elites-can-now-commit-white-collar-crime-with-near-impunity.html) in the future.

Ponce
24th January 2016, 09:26 PM
We were here wayyyyyyyyyyyy before using oil........we made oil our master and that will kill us...people were living for a longggg time before oil and we can do it again without it........have I taken all the pills that the Dr's wanted to give me I would have been dead long ago.......we were even smarter without it, using pencil and paper instead of a comp.... to me living without gas, or power, is only an inconvenience and not the end of the world.

V

Jerrylynnb
24th January 2016, 10:33 PM
Ponce, that is a romantic (in the non-sexual sense) ideal about the times of our youth and that of our ancestors. My immediate reaction to your attitude was wholehearted agreement, because I too have fond memories of my youth (post WW2) and the tales my grandparents told me about the turn of the century (1900).

But then I was reminded of a relative of mine who drives a 10-wheel tractor truck (like a Peterbilt) hauling loads in 8-wheel trailers all over these 48 states. I am reminded of a very popular song from the 50's, titled "Mule Train" (originally sung as part of a Gene Autry movie by the same name). My favorite rendition is by Tennessee Ernie Ford:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8krn-hZDVI

Just imagine trying to haul goods from New York to California by a mule train!
Or shipping boatloads of cotton from the south to Europe under sail!

It was like getting slapped in the face - to wake me up to the current world. We have a world-wide glut of OIL, and, the modern world thrives on it. The scramble to find it, extract it, refine it, ship it, and sell it, the world over is the fundamental underpinnings of the modern world. We can't go back.

I am wide awake again.

Jewboo
24th January 2016, 10:38 PM
Many high-powered people and institutions say that deflation is threatening much of the world’s economy …



I agree with this. Back in the old days at GIM1 many of us thought it was going to be inflation and bought into the gold-silver thingie to protect ourselves.

A common observation during the Great Depression was people saying "nobody had any money". That's deflation.

Jerrylynnb
24th January 2016, 10:50 PM
Ponce, I am also reminded of an IBM computer complex I visited once in Kingston, New York. A room full of those big IBM mainframes going full tilt, with several rooms full of hard drives and tape drives spinning like a hive of irritated hornets - lots of operations folks running here and there processing so much data nightly that it would take several globes of men with pencil and paper to even make a dent. And this data was not frivolous - no sir. Every morning tons of various reports were generated for the small army of analysts to review and make major decisions (that affect the lives of all of us) based on the deeply involved mathematical and statistical analysis of all this galactic-sized database.

And that was back in 1967 - I can only imagine what these rooms are like these days.

Again, the modern world is so far advanced over a century ago, or even 50 years ago, that it is something for historical novels to even entertain the idea of doing without our modern electronically based computing power.

I grow tired and weary at the pace of things in today's world, but, the pace itself is ever increasing.

vacuum
24th January 2016, 11:15 PM
I agree with this. Back in the old days at GIM1 many of us thought it was going to be inflation and bought into the gold-silver thingie to protect ourselves.

A common observation during the Great Depression was people saying "nobody had any money". That's deflation.


Yes, I agree that deflation is the primary concern. My understanding is that a collapse would play out as follows:

First, our money is debt. Without debt, there is no money. In order for there to be debt, and hence money, there must be loans being made. When the world is maxed out on the amount they can borrow, then new loans slow down. Hence money creation slows down. This is deflation. When this happens, there are bankruptcies and people default on debt. This literally causes the debt and associated money to stop existing, which causes more deflation. This is a deflationary spiral. Quantitative easing stops the spiral, but unfortunately it doesn't create new sources of borrowers so as to keep the system running long term.

Luckily, our USDollars are used all over the world as a type of reserve currency, and hence there is demand for them by other nations. In a deflationary collapse, first fringe nations would fall because they wouldn't be able to repay back their loans. Nations like Greece, the PIIGS, etc. Then more established nations after that. We would be the last nation to feel the collapse in our home country, because we can always print our money at home whereas other nations can't print US dollars and no one wants their own currency.

Once demand for our dollars from the world is gone though (because they have collapsed), then what happens is that we become responsible for the consequences of our own money printing. This is where deflation turns into hyperinflation and confidence loss in the money occurs.

cheka.
25th January 2016, 03:58 AM
one would think that the collapse in all things oil would lead to a negative print on cpi. yet, no...rising prices on everything else are offsetting the oil products' price collapse

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_repression

Financial repression refers to "policies that result in savers earning returns below the rate of inflation" in order to allow banks to "provide cheap loans to companies and governments, reducing the burden of repayments".[

Financial repression consists of the following:[5]
1.Explicit or indirect capping of interest rates, such as on government debt and deposit rates (e.g., Regulation Q).
2.Government ownership or control of domestic banks and financial institutions with barriers that limit other institutions from entering the market.
3.High reserve requirements
4.Creation or maintenance of a captive domestic market for government debt, achieved by requiring banks to hold government debt via capital requirements, or by prohibiting or disincentivising alternatives.
5.Government restrictions on the transfer of assets abroad through the imposition of capital controls.

These measures allow governments to issue debt at lower interest rates. A low nominal interest rate can reduce debt servicing costs, while negative real interest rates erodes the real value of government debt.[5] Thus, financial repression is most successful in liquidating debts when accompanied by inflation and can be considered a form of taxation,[6] or alternatively a form of debasement

financial repression has been called a “stealth tax” that "rewards debtors and punishes savers—especially retirees" because their investments will no longer generate the expected return, which is income for retirees.[10][12] "One of the main goals of financial repression is to keep nominal interest rates lower than they would be in more competitive markets.

Other things equal, this reduces the government’s interest expenses for a given stock of debt and contributes to deficit reduction. However, when financial repression produces negative real interest rates (nominal rates below the inflation rate), it reduces or liquidates existing debts and becomes the equivalent of a tax—a transfer from creditors (savers) to borrowers, including the government."[

palani
25th January 2016, 05:18 AM
Most peoples worlds are defined by their money. Economy is something specific to banking and people who rely upon money see the economy as 'the world'. Inflation and deflation are words used to define what the economy is presently doing.

I have twenty one silver dollars. They neither inflate nor deflate. Neither are they part of the economy. In other words ... they are real. Things real don't inflate or deflate either.

The logical conclusion is that things imaginary are subject to inflation or deflation. The economy is imaginary. You might as well speak of visiting Hogwarts or discuss when dragons became extinct or report seeing vampires as discuss the current state of the monetary system.

Joshua01
25th January 2016, 06:14 AM
Most peoples worlds are defined by their money. Economy is something specific to banking and people who rely upon money see the economy as 'the world'. Inflation and deflation are words used to define what the economy is presently doing.

I have twenty one silver dollars. They neither inflate nor deflate. Neither are they part of the economy. In other words ... they are real. Things real don't inflate or deflate either.

The logical conclusion is that things imaginary are subject to inflation or deflation. The economy is imaginary. You might as well speak of visiting Hogwarts or discuss when dragons became extinct or report seeing vampires as discuss the current state of the monetary system.

I agree with this post. If you have a decent percentage of your wealth in PMs you won't be totally wiped out should the inevitable happen and fiat become worthless. Balance your wealth across a number of investments such as food, guns, ammo, water as well as tangible assets such as PMs in order to protect as much as possible from as much as possible

singular_me
25th January 2016, 01:26 PM
dont click if you cannot stand infowar but thats a good summary, IMHO

If we go through 2016 without a total global bust, I will be even more worried. We should have crashed down in 2008 already, the more they stretch it the worse it will be

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Davos Insider: World Economy Doomed, Central Banks ‘Out of Ammo’
25th January 2016

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_FufaLCT2Bc