vacuum
27th January 2016, 01:57 AM
Microsoft's impressively accurate prediction tool says Trump will crush the primary elections
Next Monday morning, the polls open that begin the process of deciding who will become the two main contenders in the 2016 US presidential election.
Can you guess who they'll be? Microsoft can.
The company has a tool called "Bing Predicts," tied to Microsoft's search engine (Bing). While the tool can be used for a variety of different predictions, in this instance it's looking at searches, polls, and prediction markets to determine who will win the presidential primaries (https://blogs.bing.com/search/2016/01/26/bing-elections-2016-who-will-win-iowa-and-new-hampshire/).
Before you write this off solely as a marketing gimmick, you should know that the tool has a pretty impressive track record — with politics in particular:
Bing Predicts was spot on with the outcome of the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, and it correctly predicted the outcomes for all of the 15 games in the knockout round (http://qz.com/233830/world-cup-germany-argentina-predictions-microsoft/) of the 2014 World Cup.
In terms of US politics, Bing Predicts did pretty well in predicting how the 2014 midterm elections would go (https://blogs.bing.com/blog/2014/11/10/bing-gets-an-a-in-election-prediction-accuracy/). It was 97% accurate in predicting the outcome of Senate races, 96% accurate predicting the outcome of House of Representatives races, and 89% accurate in predicting the outcomes of races for governor.
So, how do the current crop of candidates stack up in the upcoming primary elections to determine the representative from each party? Here's what Bing Predicts projects for the first four contests:
Iowa Caucus (February 1):
http://static2.businessinsider.com/image/56a7c815dd08950a0b8b4681-812-116/screen%20shot%202016-01-26%20at%201.17.39%20pm.pngBing (https://blogs.bing.com/search/2016/01/26/bing-elections-2016-who-will-win-iowa-and-new-hampshire/)
New Hampshire Primary (February 9):
http://static1.businessinsider.com/image/56a7c815dd08950a0b8b4682-823-142/screen%20shot%202016-01-26%20at%201.23.02%20pm.pngBing (https://blogs.bing.com/search/2016/01/26/bing-elections-2016-who-will-win-iowa-and-new-hampshire/)
South Carolina Primary (February 20 and 27):
http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/56a7c815dd08950a0b8b4683-802-105/screen%20shot%202016-01-26%20at%201.20.37%20pm.pngBing (https://blogs.bing.com/search/2016/01/26/bing-elections-2016-who-will-win-iowa-and-new-hampshire/)
Nevada Caucuses (February 20 and 23):
http://static1.businessinsider.com/image/56a7c815dd08950a0b8b4684-821-142/screen%20shot%202016-01-26%20at%201.23.46%20pm.pngBing (https://blogs.bing.com/search/2016/01/26/bing-elections-2016-who-will-win-iowa-and-new-hampshire/)
We'll revisit this after the Iowa Caucuses next week to see how accurate Bing was for the first round.
Read the original article on Tech Insider (http://www.techinsider.io/). Follow Tech Insider on Facebook (http://www.facebook.com/techinsider/) and Twitter (http://twitter.com/techinsider). Copyright 2016.
Next Monday morning, the polls open that begin the process of deciding who will become the two main contenders in the 2016 US presidential election.
Can you guess who they'll be? Microsoft can.
The company has a tool called "Bing Predicts," tied to Microsoft's search engine (Bing). While the tool can be used for a variety of different predictions, in this instance it's looking at searches, polls, and prediction markets to determine who will win the presidential primaries (https://blogs.bing.com/search/2016/01/26/bing-elections-2016-who-will-win-iowa-and-new-hampshire/).
Before you write this off solely as a marketing gimmick, you should know that the tool has a pretty impressive track record — with politics in particular:
Bing Predicts was spot on with the outcome of the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, and it correctly predicted the outcomes for all of the 15 games in the knockout round (http://qz.com/233830/world-cup-germany-argentina-predictions-microsoft/) of the 2014 World Cup.
In terms of US politics, Bing Predicts did pretty well in predicting how the 2014 midterm elections would go (https://blogs.bing.com/blog/2014/11/10/bing-gets-an-a-in-election-prediction-accuracy/). It was 97% accurate in predicting the outcome of Senate races, 96% accurate predicting the outcome of House of Representatives races, and 89% accurate in predicting the outcomes of races for governor.
So, how do the current crop of candidates stack up in the upcoming primary elections to determine the representative from each party? Here's what Bing Predicts projects for the first four contests:
Iowa Caucus (February 1):
http://static2.businessinsider.com/image/56a7c815dd08950a0b8b4681-812-116/screen%20shot%202016-01-26%20at%201.17.39%20pm.pngBing (https://blogs.bing.com/search/2016/01/26/bing-elections-2016-who-will-win-iowa-and-new-hampshire/)
New Hampshire Primary (February 9):
http://static1.businessinsider.com/image/56a7c815dd08950a0b8b4682-823-142/screen%20shot%202016-01-26%20at%201.23.02%20pm.pngBing (https://blogs.bing.com/search/2016/01/26/bing-elections-2016-who-will-win-iowa-and-new-hampshire/)
South Carolina Primary (February 20 and 27):
http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/56a7c815dd08950a0b8b4683-802-105/screen%20shot%202016-01-26%20at%201.20.37%20pm.pngBing (https://blogs.bing.com/search/2016/01/26/bing-elections-2016-who-will-win-iowa-and-new-hampshire/)
Nevada Caucuses (February 20 and 23):
http://static1.businessinsider.com/image/56a7c815dd08950a0b8b4684-821-142/screen%20shot%202016-01-26%20at%201.23.46%20pm.pngBing (https://blogs.bing.com/search/2016/01/26/bing-elections-2016-who-will-win-iowa-and-new-hampshire/)
We'll revisit this after the Iowa Caucuses next week to see how accurate Bing was for the first round.
Read the original article on Tech Insider (http://www.techinsider.io/). Follow Tech Insider on Facebook (http://www.facebook.com/techinsider/) and Twitter (http://twitter.com/techinsider). Copyright 2016.