vacuum
24th February 2016, 10:48 PM
This, combined with the Student Mock Convention are extremely bullish on their predictions of Trump's success.
edit: I should mention that the dailycaller is a total anti-Trump publication, so this isn't some joke of a story
Political Science Professor: Odds Of President Trump Range BETWEEN 97% AND 99%
Eric Owens
(http://dailycaller.com/author/eric-owens/)Education Editor (http://dailycaller.com/author/eric-owens/)
7:18 PM 02/24/2016
A political science professor who claims his statistical model has correctly predicted the results of every election in the last 104 years has forecast that the odds of Donald Trump becoming America’s next president currently range from 97 percent to 99 percent.
The professor is Helmut Norpoth (http://www.stonybrook.edu/commcms/polisci/professors/norpoth.html) of Stony Brook University, reports The Statesman (https://www.sbstatesman.com/2016/02/23/political-science-professor-forecasts-trump-as-general-election-winner/), the campus newspaper at the public bastion on New York’s Long Island.
Specifically, Norpoth predicts that Trump has a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton and a 99 percent chance of beating Bernie Sanders.
The predictions assume Trump will actually become the 2016 presidential nominee of the Republican Party. (RELATED: Trump Has Never Voted In A Republican Primary) (http://dailycaller.com/2016/01/22/trump-has-never-voted-in-a-republican-primary/)
Norpoth announced his prognostication on Monday night during Stony Brook Alumni Association event at the SUNY Global Center in Manhattan.
“The bottom line is that the primary model, using also the cyclical movement, makes it almost certain that Donald Trump will be the next president,” Norpoth said, according to The Statesman.
“When I started out with this kind of display a few months ago, I thought it was sort of a joke,” the professor told the alumni audience, according to the student newspaper. “Well, I’ll tell you right now, it ain’t a joke anymore.”
“Trump beats Hillary 54.7 percent to 45.3 percent” in terms of popular vote, Norpoth prophesied. (RELATED: From Immigration To Abortion, Longtime Democrat Donald Trump Must Reckon With His Rich Progressive History)
(http://dailycaller.com/2015/08/26/from-immigration-to-abortion-longtime-democrat-donald-trump-must-reckon-with-his-rich-progressive-history/)
“This is almost too much to believe,” he told audience members described by the student as nervously laughing. But he is convinced his model won’t be wrong.
“Take it to the bank,” Norpoth confidently suggested.
Norpoth, a 1974 University of Michigan Ph.D. recipient who specializes in electoral behavior alignment, said his crystal ball also shows a 61-percent chance that the Republican nominee — Trump or not — will win the 2016 presidential election.
The political scientist also said there is virtually no way Trump could lose the Electoral College vote if he rakes in 54.7 percent — or more — of the vote.
Norpoth’s general election formula measures candidates’ performances in primaries in caucuses to gauge party unity and voter excitement. It also focuses on certain patterns in electoral cycles.
One major assumption is that the party which has just held the presidency for two consecutive terms is less likely to win a third term.
The model has been correct for every election since 1912 except for the 1960 election — which pitted winner John F. Kennedy against loser Richard Nixon.
In total, Norpoth observed, his forecasting formula he has created has been correct 96.1 percent of the time since 1912.
The professor said he has used the model in recent times to predict Bill Clinton’s victories as well as George W. Bush’s and Barack Obama’s wins.
Follow Eric on Twitter (https://twitter.com/ericowensdc). Like Eric on Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/EricOwensDC). Send education-related story tips to erico@dailycaller.com (erico@dailycaller.com).
Tags: Bernie Sanders (http://dailycaller.com/buzz/bernie-sanders/), Donald Trump (http://dailycaller.com/buzz/donald-trump/), Elections 2016 (http://dailycaller.com/buzz/elections-2016/), Hillary Clinton (http://dailycaller.com/buzz/hillary-clinton/)
Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2016/02/24/political-science-professor-odds-of-president-trump-range-between-97-and-99/#ixzz419yIweHe
edit: I should mention that the dailycaller is a total anti-Trump publication, so this isn't some joke of a story
Political Science Professor: Odds Of President Trump Range BETWEEN 97% AND 99%
Eric Owens
(http://dailycaller.com/author/eric-owens/)Education Editor (http://dailycaller.com/author/eric-owens/)
7:18 PM 02/24/2016
A political science professor who claims his statistical model has correctly predicted the results of every election in the last 104 years has forecast that the odds of Donald Trump becoming America’s next president currently range from 97 percent to 99 percent.
The professor is Helmut Norpoth (http://www.stonybrook.edu/commcms/polisci/professors/norpoth.html) of Stony Brook University, reports The Statesman (https://www.sbstatesman.com/2016/02/23/political-science-professor-forecasts-trump-as-general-election-winner/), the campus newspaper at the public bastion on New York’s Long Island.
Specifically, Norpoth predicts that Trump has a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton and a 99 percent chance of beating Bernie Sanders.
The predictions assume Trump will actually become the 2016 presidential nominee of the Republican Party. (RELATED: Trump Has Never Voted In A Republican Primary) (http://dailycaller.com/2016/01/22/trump-has-never-voted-in-a-republican-primary/)
Norpoth announced his prognostication on Monday night during Stony Brook Alumni Association event at the SUNY Global Center in Manhattan.
“The bottom line is that the primary model, using also the cyclical movement, makes it almost certain that Donald Trump will be the next president,” Norpoth said, according to The Statesman.
“When I started out with this kind of display a few months ago, I thought it was sort of a joke,” the professor told the alumni audience, according to the student newspaper. “Well, I’ll tell you right now, it ain’t a joke anymore.”
“Trump beats Hillary 54.7 percent to 45.3 percent” in terms of popular vote, Norpoth prophesied. (RELATED: From Immigration To Abortion, Longtime Democrat Donald Trump Must Reckon With His Rich Progressive History)
(http://dailycaller.com/2015/08/26/from-immigration-to-abortion-longtime-democrat-donald-trump-must-reckon-with-his-rich-progressive-history/)
“This is almost too much to believe,” he told audience members described by the student as nervously laughing. But he is convinced his model won’t be wrong.
“Take it to the bank,” Norpoth confidently suggested.
Norpoth, a 1974 University of Michigan Ph.D. recipient who specializes in electoral behavior alignment, said his crystal ball also shows a 61-percent chance that the Republican nominee — Trump or not — will win the 2016 presidential election.
The political scientist also said there is virtually no way Trump could lose the Electoral College vote if he rakes in 54.7 percent — or more — of the vote.
Norpoth’s general election formula measures candidates’ performances in primaries in caucuses to gauge party unity and voter excitement. It also focuses on certain patterns in electoral cycles.
One major assumption is that the party which has just held the presidency for two consecutive terms is less likely to win a third term.
The model has been correct for every election since 1912 except for the 1960 election — which pitted winner John F. Kennedy against loser Richard Nixon.
In total, Norpoth observed, his forecasting formula he has created has been correct 96.1 percent of the time since 1912.
The professor said he has used the model in recent times to predict Bill Clinton’s victories as well as George W. Bush’s and Barack Obama’s wins.
Follow Eric on Twitter (https://twitter.com/ericowensdc). Like Eric on Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/EricOwensDC). Send education-related story tips to erico@dailycaller.com (erico@dailycaller.com).
Tags: Bernie Sanders (http://dailycaller.com/buzz/bernie-sanders/), Donald Trump (http://dailycaller.com/buzz/donald-trump/), Elections 2016 (http://dailycaller.com/buzz/elections-2016/), Hillary Clinton (http://dailycaller.com/buzz/hillary-clinton/)
Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2016/02/24/political-science-professor-odds-of-president-trump-range-between-97-and-99/#ixzz419yIweHe