Trump's outlook for the remaining states

[vacuum]

Spoiler: Very good.



STATE -- DELEGATES -- POLLS %/LEAD (DATE/Source) -- Early Voting Dates


Information about the State.

NEXT UP -- Tuesday April 26 -- Predicted TRUMP SWEEP Maryland -- 38 -- TRUMP 42%/+14 (April/RCP) -- Early voting ends tomorrow!!


Virtually a winner take all, but based on both At-Large and District Votes. I'll be an election judge here. AMAA.

Pennsylvania -- 54* -- TRUMP 46%/+20 (April/RCP) -- Early voting not allowed.


Most delegates are unbound; only 17* are bound by the results. Make sure you know who you are voting for!!! --- http://www.kellerfordelegate.com/#!know-your-delegates/s4vv7 (http://www.kellerfordelegate.com/#%21know-your-delegates/s4vv7) - Credit: /u/fastmandan (https://www.reddit.com/u/fastmandan)

Rhode Island -- 19 -- TRUMP 43%/+18 (February/RCP) -- Early voting not allowed.


Proportional allocation. A candidate must get >10% to get any delegates.

Connecticut -- 28 -- TRUMP 48%/+20 (April/Quinnipiac) -- Early voting not allowed.


Winner-Take-All if leader takes over 50%. Candidate must recieve >20% to get any delegates.

Delaware -- 16 -- TRUMP 46%/+30 (April/ISW) -- Early voting not allowed.


Winner-Take-All. MAGA.

ON DECK -- Tuesday May 3 Indiana -- 57 -- TRUMP 39%/+19 (April/ISW) -- Early voting until 3 May.


Winner-Take-All. Mind the ISW source. Indiana will be a challenge.

IN THE CHUTE -- Tuesday May 10 Nebraska -- 36 -- TRUMP 38.5%/+18 (April/ISW) -- Early voting until 9 May.


Winner-Take-All. Mind the ISW source. I'm expecting Cruz to edge us out on this one. Prove me wrong!

West Virginia -- 34 -- TRUMP 40%/+20 (February/RCP) -- Early voting open 27 April to 7 May.


Direct Election. This means you, the people, elect the delegates directly. Know your delegates before you vote!! Take a list with you if you have to!

West Virginia! Listen up! Your ballot is 6 pages long. The important part is page 3: delegates. They are all labeled, but listen carefully: CHOOSE 22! (TWENTY-TWO!!!). If you choose more than 22 your ballot will not be counted!

Write this down on a note if you need to:



Stephanie Abramowitz

Gregory Baldt

Diana Bartley

Kristi A. Beddow

Donna J. Boley

Edward R. Burgess

Brian Casto

Anne Brockus Dandelet

Vicki Dunn-Marshall

Craig William Evans

Justin Fisher

Seth S. Gaskins

Joe Harper

Dan Hill

Kevin Honaker

Kristi Jeffrey

Tyler Jordon

Anne Lieberman

Thorney Lieberman

Christopher May

Stephen Mcelroy

T. Aaron Metz

STOP! That's 22. No more.


On the next page there is a nother delegate block for you to choose THREE. Pick any 3 with (Trump) next to their name.

Here is an example ballot: http://monongaliacountyclerk.com/myfiles/elections/2016elections/sampleballots/primary/SampleBallot-Republican16P.pdf

YOU, MORE THAN ANY OTHER STATE, CAN TELL THE GOPe TO GO FUCK THEMSELVES!

Tuesday May 17 Oregon -- 28 -- TRUMP 41%/+22 (April/ISW) -- Early voting not allowed.


Proportional allocation. Candidate must receive >3.57% to receive any delegates.

Tuesday May 24 Washington -- 44 -- TRUMP 34%/+13 (April/ISW) -- Early voting not allowed.


Proportional allocation. 20% qualifying threshold. Winner-Take-All if winner takes >50%.

FINAL STOP BEFORE CLEVELAND -- Tuesday June 7 Montana -- 27 -- TRUMP 42%/+23 (April/ISW) -- Early voting 9 May until 6 June.


Winner-Take-All. Mind the ISW source. I'm expecting Cruz to edge us out on this one. Prove me wrong!

California -- 172 -- TRUMP 49%/+18 (April/RCP) -- Early voting varies by county.


Winner-Take-Most. Delegates here are bound until the third round.

New Jersey -- 51 -- TRUMP 33%/+18 (February/RCP) -- Early voting not allowed.


Winner-Take-All. Based Donut Salesman will guide us to victory!

New Mexico -- 24 -- CRUZ 25%/+1 (February/RCP) -- Early voting begins 11 May and continues until 7 June.


Proportional allocation with a 15% qualifying threshold. This is close as fuck, let's get it!

South Dakota -- 29 --TRUMP 27%/+16 (April/ISW) -- Early voting opens 22 April.


Winner-Take-All. Mind the ISW source. I'm expecting Cruz to edge us out on this one. Prove me wrong! Dr. Carson has been in Dakota for awhile working some Sleepy Doctor Magic.

Notes:


RCP used when polls were viable. If not, defaulted to isidewith.com. This is not a polling website, so don't take their numbers too seriously. There are a lot of polling controls that this site does not use.

Go fucking vote!

[vacuum]

Maryland - 38
Connecticut - Either 24 or 28.
Delaware - 16
Rhode Island - 13+
Pennsylvania - I want a conservative estimate of 30.
Indiana - 57
Nebraska - 0
West Virginia - 3. I'm expecting GOPe to steal most of them behind the scenes.
Oregon - 14
Washington - 22
Montana - 0.
California - 150+
New Jersey - 51
New Mexico - 10
South Dakota - 0.
Total: 428 for a first round of 1,272 delegates.
I like to keep my estimates conservative, so I can see it going as high as 470-490.
Worst case scenario:
GOPe steals all of WV, Trump somehow loses even the white vote in New Mexico, Cruz or Golly Gee win Indiana, GOPe steals all but 17 of PA's delegates, and Donald fails to show up in Cali only taking ~130.
That gives us 331 for a first round of 1,175 bound delegates.

[cheka.]

new mexico is corrupt sh-thole like colorado -- imo the result will be lower than any estimate

[vacuum]

Bing has been right about 80% of the primaries so far.

It's predicting Trump will win 7 of 8 upcoming states.




https://i.sli.mg/H3CH9C.png

[mick silver]

http://www.opednews.com/populum/cachedimages/s_430_opednews_com_1_screen-shot-2016-04-20-at-8-56-20-pm-png_1833_20160420-164.gif (http://www.opednews.com/articles/New-York-voting-fiasco-jus-by-Greg-Palast-New-York_Purging_Voting-Integrity-160420-540.html)

[Ponce]

Nothing happens till it happens........then.........I will believe it. Where is the Fat lAdy?

V

[cheka.]

some guy on tv was saying that there are 200 delegates that have yet to be credited to any candidates - and that trump has a percentage of those.....so the published delegate count is lower than it actually is

edit, this: http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/04/20/donald_trump_s_mathematical_path_to_the_nomination .html

The good news for the celebrity businessman (and the bad news for humanity), though, is that he won’t necessarily be DOA in Cleveland if he comes up short in the primary season. He’d still have the chance to find the remaining delegates he needs from the 200 or so unbound delegates who will be at the convention.

Many of those will be local party officials or Cruz supporters, yes, but the closer Trump is to 1,237, the more sympathetic many of them will likely be to his cause—or at least the will of those voters who cast ballots for him. As one Massachusetts RNC member (who backed Jeb Bush earlier this year) put it to Politico recently: “If [Trump’s] close after June 7, there’ll be a compelling reason for folks to say he’s won the most delegates by a lot and he’s won the most voters by a ton.”