View Full Version : tell me about this chart
cheka.
12th October 2016, 11:10 PM
what(s) changed?
https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-LE6mfLBvdWg/VyIP-bhS4CI/AAAAAAAAOpw/j-eE7LPhCXc8hJDICUgicMieIrOooJ9KQCLcB/s1600/GDP%2Bgrowth%2B10%2By%2Bann.png
Cebu_4_2
12th October 2016, 11:13 PM
Looks like were fucked. I had over 300 regular customers and of that 5 survived. Like me survived, not great but still here.
Glass
12th October 2016, 11:30 PM
I remember how tough the mid 80's recession was and expected worse this time around. For me things have been flat, for longer. For others it's been pretty bad but it isn't across all sectors. The main hits have been construction, mining and big boys toys. Big boys toys obviously feeding off the boom in construction and mining which have both cratered. We had a massive growth in apartment construction and the pipeline was pretty full. I think this kept the downturn at bay longer. Now it's tapering off with not much in the way of new projects in pre-sale. So I'm expecting another step down over the next 6 months or so unless something else comes along. Been re-skilling in an effort to be more flexible for the next step down. Hoarding cash and keeping trading debt very tight. Expecting more rainy days to come.
Neuro
13th October 2016, 12:02 AM
what(s) changed?
https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-LE6mfLBvdWg/VyIP-bhS4CI/AAAAAAAAOpw/j-eE7LPhCXc8hJDICUgicMieIrOooJ9KQCLcB/s1600/GDP%2Bgrowth%2B10%2By%2Bann.png
What is really worrying is that this fall in growth happened despite massive money printing by the FRB...
https://www.goldrepublic.com/s/img/market-update/2015-2/federal-reserve-balans.png
It is the fall of a civilization we are witnessing!
osoab
13th October 2016, 04:29 AM
Interest rates matter?
Joshua01
13th October 2016, 04:53 AM
What is really worrying is that this fall in growth happened despite massive money printing by the FRB...
https://www.goldrepublic.com/s/img/market-update/2015-2/federal-reserve-balans.png
It is the fall of a civilization we are witnessing!
Good, it's a lousy civilization anyway. Time for a reset
mamboni
13th October 2016, 11:18 AM
The system had a massive heart attack in 2008. Even the US Total Debt curve inflected and debt is going up more slowly than it would have. But, it's going up almost vertical as they pump credits into the banks to keep them solvent and create the appearance of economic life. GDP is actually now negative because government underestimates CPI and inflation. Why is the GDP shrinking? Declining labor force participation, high quality jobs replaced with low skill service jobs often only part time. Money velocity has collapsed as uncertainty causes people to save and not consume, thwarting economic growth. Large corporations have seen their earnings per capital assets collapse. So they have gone into massive debt (courtesy of ZIRP) and are buying back stock rather than invest in plant and equipment. Too much debt, public and private weighing down the economy, sucking up any liquidity there is. Obamacare cut the legs off of any recovery by stealing the working class's disposable income, whatever they had. Real economic activity has grind down to a halt. Finally, all asset classes (except PMs) are simply overpriced and the real estate worm is starting to turn negative. The stocks internationally are looking for a big correction especially in the US.
In summary: slow economic activity, no organic growth or job creation, excessive debt and leverage, rising insurance costs, near zero money velocity and ZIRP slowly destroying the capital base of the entire system.
We are in a very dangerous place and it's only getting worse.
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