ximmy
4th May 2017, 01:38 PM
I don't agree with all of Martin Armstrong, but this chart seems to be accurate, not monthly (but within 6 months at least), and so at this time we are seeing the drop in PM prices.
The high points are the low prices and the bottom points are the high prices. Probably a good time to buy. He still thinks we could go sub 1000 gold. I don't think so.
http://theuniverseas.com/dissolvingdollarsarchive/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/ECM2015-2020.jpg
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/models/7219-2/
The key to comprehending the Global Economy lies in the realization that we are not alone. Everything is connected in an intricate dynamic nonlinear network where the slightest change in one region can set in motion a ripple effect of dramatic proportions around the world. Understanding this dynamic nonlinear global network is the first step in restructuring government and our idea of managing our political-social-economy.
http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2012/08/ecconf-maa-clr.jpg (http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2012/08/ecconf-maa-clr.jpg)
The primary mistake many make with the Economic Confidence Model (ECM) is assuming it should be a perfect model for the stock market, gold, or some other market. It is a global model and does not track any individual market. It is tracking the phenomenon of international capital flows. There is a shift back and forth between PUBLIC and PRIVATE investment trends. For example, the wave that peaked in 1929 was a PRIVATE wave where people had great confidence in the private sector. When the crash came, we turned toward the government creating a more conservative wave of PUBLIC investment where bonds do better than stocks.
http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2012/08/bookvalue-dj.jpg (http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2012/08/bookvalue-dj.jpg)
The peak of that PUBLIC wave was marketed by the peak in interest rates during March 1981. Confidence shifted back to the PRIVATE sector and the Dow Jones finally broke through the 1,000 barrier. The takeover boom began as stocks had been ignored during the PUBLIC wave and actually bottomed in 1977 from a book value perspective. The takeover boom was caused by the realization that you could buy companies, sell there assets, and double your money. Stocks were seriously undervalued.
http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2012/08/64gceco.jpg (http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2012/08/64gceco.jpg)
Capital concentrates into a single region and then into a single market. There is a cycle to this as well from within a region such as the hot market will be real estate, bonds, stocks, commodities, and then back to real estate. What makes a bubble is this concentration of capital. However, every market retains its own cycle and it is when that cycle lines up with the ECM that we get the big booms and busts. Gold has a 8 year cycle that is fractal building into a 64 year cycle. It peaked in 1980 and declined for 19 years until its model turned in 1998. Because gold has been used as money periodically, you must understand that in a gold standard, inflation means gold declines, whereas it is the opposite during a free market. Therefore, while the 64 year model shows an idealized peak for 1998, it is a turning point rather than a particular high of low. The low in gold at that time sets it up for its ultimate high against government 64 years later.
The high points are the low prices and the bottom points are the high prices. Probably a good time to buy. He still thinks we could go sub 1000 gold. I don't think so.
http://theuniverseas.com/dissolvingdollarsarchive/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/ECM2015-2020.jpg
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/models/7219-2/
The key to comprehending the Global Economy lies in the realization that we are not alone. Everything is connected in an intricate dynamic nonlinear network where the slightest change in one region can set in motion a ripple effect of dramatic proportions around the world. Understanding this dynamic nonlinear global network is the first step in restructuring government and our idea of managing our political-social-economy.
http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2012/08/ecconf-maa-clr.jpg (http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2012/08/ecconf-maa-clr.jpg)
The primary mistake many make with the Economic Confidence Model (ECM) is assuming it should be a perfect model for the stock market, gold, or some other market. It is a global model and does not track any individual market. It is tracking the phenomenon of international capital flows. There is a shift back and forth between PUBLIC and PRIVATE investment trends. For example, the wave that peaked in 1929 was a PRIVATE wave where people had great confidence in the private sector. When the crash came, we turned toward the government creating a more conservative wave of PUBLIC investment where bonds do better than stocks.
http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2012/08/bookvalue-dj.jpg (http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2012/08/bookvalue-dj.jpg)
The peak of that PUBLIC wave was marketed by the peak in interest rates during March 1981. Confidence shifted back to the PRIVATE sector and the Dow Jones finally broke through the 1,000 barrier. The takeover boom began as stocks had been ignored during the PUBLIC wave and actually bottomed in 1977 from a book value perspective. The takeover boom was caused by the realization that you could buy companies, sell there assets, and double your money. Stocks were seriously undervalued.
http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2012/08/64gceco.jpg (http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2012/08/64gceco.jpg)
Capital concentrates into a single region and then into a single market. There is a cycle to this as well from within a region such as the hot market will be real estate, bonds, stocks, commodities, and then back to real estate. What makes a bubble is this concentration of capital. However, every market retains its own cycle and it is when that cycle lines up with the ECM that we get the big booms and busts. Gold has a 8 year cycle that is fractal building into a 64 year cycle. It peaked in 1980 and declined for 19 years until its model turned in 1998. Because gold has been used as money periodically, you must understand that in a gold standard, inflation means gold declines, whereas it is the opposite during a free market. Therefore, while the 64 year model shows an idealized peak for 1998, it is a turning point rather than a particular high of low. The low in gold at that time sets it up for its ultimate high against government 64 years later.