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3rd November 2018, 05:10 PM
Potent storm to strike states with key races in 2018 Midterm Elections
https://accuweather.brightspotcdn.com/cb/dd/665f624e4482806f09f46eb2e6c1/kristina-pydynowski-byline.png By Kristina Pydynowski (https://www.accuweather.com/en/personalities/kristina-pydynowski), AccuWeather senior meteorologist November 03, 2018, 7:04:02 PM EDT
Voter turnout for Tuesday’s midterm elections may be affected as a potent storm unleashes rain, strong winds and potentially violent thunderstorms across the eastern-third of the nation.According to research, weather influences some voters' response when making a decision to head to the polls.
"Weather was found to be, on average, nearly 20 percent of the change in voter turnout based on our analysis," according to AccuWeather Data Scientist and Meteorologist Tim Loftus.
"Democrats are more weather sensitive, when compared to Republicans, and among the most weather-sensitive were African-Americans, those 65 and older and 18-24 year olds," he said.
Below is a breakdown of the weather expected on Election Day for the states with key races. Several of these states are in the path of the impending strong autumn storm.
https://accuweather.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/cf50670/2147483647/resize/590x/quality/90/?url=http%3A%2F%2Faccuweather-bsp.s3.amazonaws.com%2Ff8%2F5b%2F1f550ed34b47a5ae1 c32e449f57e%2Fnewest-election-nov-3.jpeg
Maine
Election Day can be cloudy with temperatures slowly climbing from the upper 30s and lower 40s in the mornings to the middle 40s and lower 50s for the high.
Those heading to the polls will want to keep an umbrella handy. While there can be a little morning drizzle, showers may return in the afternoon and evening.
New York
"Generally, the warmer the low temperature, the more New Yorkers tend to go out to vote," Loftus said. “New Yorkers are most deterred during windy conditions, especially when rain is present.”
Early morning temperatures are expected to be above normal throughout the state on Tuesday, but the storm may sweep rain and increasingly windy conditions from west to east as the day progresses.
https://accuweather.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/7dc52bb/2147483647/resize/590x/quality/90/?url=http%3A%2F%2Faccuweather-bsp.s3.amazonaws.com%2F21%2F28%2F2d3de7484ebc8aec2 1733a9c8c6b%2Fne-tuesday-nov-3.jpeg
West Virginia
Election Day can be windy and mild, but strong winds can be produced as a line of showers and thunderstorms cross the state.
"Cloudy conditions and windy weather deter voters in West Virginia, especially voters aged 25 to 44," according to Loftus. "However, Democrats are less impacted by wind than Republicans and tend to fair better with higher-sustained wind speeds."
Tennessee
"Cool and damp weather causes voters to stay inside, but if temperatures are comfortable, rain won’t bother them all too much," said Loftus. "Unless it is severe, in which notifications/headlines may cause voters to either vote early or after the storms clear.”
There is a risk for a line of heavy and gusty thunderstorms to cross eastern Tennessee on Tuesday morning, and AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring the potential for damaging winds to be produced.
Western and central Tennessee can dry out with some sunshine returning, but residents may be dealing with wind damage and power outages from violent thunderstorms the night before.
https://accuweather.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/64a5e95/2147483647/resize/590x/quality/90/?url=http%3A%2F%2Faccuweather-bsp.s3.amazonaws.com%2F0b%2Fbb%2Feb6fcdd14df39d07c 97fa26593c1%2Fvoting-nov-2.jpg
People stand cast their ballots ahead of the Tuesday, Nov. 6, general election at Jim Miller Park, Saturday, Oct. 27, 2018, in Marietta, Georgia. (AP Photo/Mike Stewart)
Florida
Loftus found that most Floridians enjoy voting amid warm weather, but turnout tends to be lower on warm and muggy election days—the type of weather that is expected this coming Tuesday.
Showers and thunderstorms may sweep through northern areas, creating lightning dangers for anyone waiting outside to vote or walking to polling stations.
Mississippi
Most of the severe thunderstorms that threaten Mississippi on Monday night will have departed the state by the time polls open on Tuesday. Some communities, however, may be cleaning up from storm damage and dealing with power outages.
Humidity will lower across most of the state during the day. Higher relative humidity percentages lower voter turnout, Loftus found.
Texas
"Texas voters are more influenced by temperature than rainfall," according to Loftus. "Texan Democrats fair better in cooler weather as opposed to warm conditions."
As dry weather dominates Texas, northern areas will be seasonably cooler with highs mostly in the 60s. Highs will range from near 80 in San Antonio and Houston, which is not far from normal, to around 90 in Deep South Texas.
RELATED:
Analysis: The role of weather in the elections (https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/experts-explain-the-role-of-weather-in-elections/70006486)
How Carolinas, Florida are handling the upcoming midterm elections following 2 devastating hurricanes (https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/how-carolinas-florida-are-handling-the-upcoming-midterm-elections-following-2-devastating-hurricanes/70006424)
Florida's red tide outbreak could influence the outcome of hotly contested Senate race in 2018 midterms (https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/floridas-red-tide-outbreak-could-influence-the-outcome-of-hotly-contested-senate-race-in-2018-midterms/70006334)
Missouri
"Voters aren’t necessarily deterred from venturing out to the polls when it’s raining," Loftus said.
A bit of chilly rain may dampen Election Day in northeastern areas of the state, especially in the morning. Voters across all of the state will have to bundle up as a chilly wind will blow.
Iowa
It will be dreary for voters headed to the polls in the morning with some chilly rain expected across eastern areas. Brisk winds that can hold temperatures to the 40s will persist much longer across the state and create even lower AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures.
Wisconsin
"Wisconsin likes when all the stormy weather clears," according to Loftus, "the more minutes of sunshine the better."
The opposite will occur as a storm is anticipated to unleash rain and wind across Wisconsin on Tuesday. The rain may mix with or change to snow in northern and western areas.
North Dakota
Voters will have to bundle up before heading to the polls. Highs may be held largely to the 30s, which is about 10 degrees Fahrenheit below normal. Brisk winds may create bitterly lower AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures.
Some snow may attempt to drop over northern areas in the afternoon.
https://accuweather.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/6d4281e/2147483647/resize/590x/quality/90/?url=http%3A%2F%2Faccuweather-bsp.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fae%2Fbb%2F77844e844b25bba39 9b9a6393ee2%2Fsecond-voting-nov-2.jpg
In this Tuesday, Oct. 30, 2018, file photo, canvassing board members Judge Tanya Brinkley, left, and Judge Victoria Ferrer verify signatures on mail-in ballots at the Miami-Dade County Elections Department, in Miami. Long lines, broken voting machines and poll worker confusion are all common at polling places across the country on Election Day. With more people voting early, some of these issues are already popping up in this year’s midterm election. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky, File)
Montana
High temperatures 10 degrees or more below normal can hinder voter turnout in Montana, according to Loftus.
Such temperatures are anticipated on Tuesday with highs generally in the 30s and lower 40s. Rain and snow showers may occur, especially across western and central areas.
Colorado
Snow showers may stream into the northern mountains, creating slick travel. Election Day will otherwise be mostly dry. Voters will need jackets with highs about 5-10 degrees below normal in the forecast.
Arizona
"Sunny but cooler weather enables Arizonans to vote," Loftus said. "They are most likely not to vote when conditions are cloudy, wet or warm."
None of the deterring conditions are expected with abundant sunshine and seasonable temperatures in store.
Nevada
No storms threaten to hinder voters from heading to the polls in Nevada. Election Day is anticipated to be sunny to partly cloudy, dry and calm. Highs may range from the 40s in the state’s northeastern corner to the 70s in the south.
Download the free AccuWeather app to find out a more precise forecast for when you plan to cast your vote on Tuesday.
Loftus utilized L2 (http://www.l2political.com/products/data/) as a resource when conducting research, which included analyzing weather trends and voter data to primary elections dating as far back as 1996.
While this data was based on primary elections, similar behavior is expected for the upcoming midterm elections.
https://accuweather.brightspotcdn.com/cb/dd/665f624e4482806f09f46eb2e6c1/kristina-pydynowski-byline.png By Kristina Pydynowski (https://www.accuweather.com/en/personalities/kristina-pydynowski), AccuWeather senior meteorologist November 03, 2018, 7:04:02 PM EDT
Voter turnout for Tuesday’s midterm elections may be affected as a potent storm unleashes rain, strong winds and potentially violent thunderstorms across the eastern-third of the nation.According to research, weather influences some voters' response when making a decision to head to the polls.
"Weather was found to be, on average, nearly 20 percent of the change in voter turnout based on our analysis," according to AccuWeather Data Scientist and Meteorologist Tim Loftus.
"Democrats are more weather sensitive, when compared to Republicans, and among the most weather-sensitive were African-Americans, those 65 and older and 18-24 year olds," he said.
Below is a breakdown of the weather expected on Election Day for the states with key races. Several of these states are in the path of the impending strong autumn storm.
https://accuweather.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/cf50670/2147483647/resize/590x/quality/90/?url=http%3A%2F%2Faccuweather-bsp.s3.amazonaws.com%2Ff8%2F5b%2F1f550ed34b47a5ae1 c32e449f57e%2Fnewest-election-nov-3.jpeg
Maine
Election Day can be cloudy with temperatures slowly climbing from the upper 30s and lower 40s in the mornings to the middle 40s and lower 50s for the high.
Those heading to the polls will want to keep an umbrella handy. While there can be a little morning drizzle, showers may return in the afternoon and evening.
New York
"Generally, the warmer the low temperature, the more New Yorkers tend to go out to vote," Loftus said. “New Yorkers are most deterred during windy conditions, especially when rain is present.”
Early morning temperatures are expected to be above normal throughout the state on Tuesday, but the storm may sweep rain and increasingly windy conditions from west to east as the day progresses.
https://accuweather.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/7dc52bb/2147483647/resize/590x/quality/90/?url=http%3A%2F%2Faccuweather-bsp.s3.amazonaws.com%2F21%2F28%2F2d3de7484ebc8aec2 1733a9c8c6b%2Fne-tuesday-nov-3.jpeg
West Virginia
Election Day can be windy and mild, but strong winds can be produced as a line of showers and thunderstorms cross the state.
"Cloudy conditions and windy weather deter voters in West Virginia, especially voters aged 25 to 44," according to Loftus. "However, Democrats are less impacted by wind than Republicans and tend to fair better with higher-sustained wind speeds."
Tennessee
"Cool and damp weather causes voters to stay inside, but if temperatures are comfortable, rain won’t bother them all too much," said Loftus. "Unless it is severe, in which notifications/headlines may cause voters to either vote early or after the storms clear.”
There is a risk for a line of heavy and gusty thunderstorms to cross eastern Tennessee on Tuesday morning, and AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring the potential for damaging winds to be produced.
Western and central Tennessee can dry out with some sunshine returning, but residents may be dealing with wind damage and power outages from violent thunderstorms the night before.
https://accuweather.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/64a5e95/2147483647/resize/590x/quality/90/?url=http%3A%2F%2Faccuweather-bsp.s3.amazonaws.com%2F0b%2Fbb%2Feb6fcdd14df39d07c 97fa26593c1%2Fvoting-nov-2.jpg
People stand cast their ballots ahead of the Tuesday, Nov. 6, general election at Jim Miller Park, Saturday, Oct. 27, 2018, in Marietta, Georgia. (AP Photo/Mike Stewart)
Florida
Loftus found that most Floridians enjoy voting amid warm weather, but turnout tends to be lower on warm and muggy election days—the type of weather that is expected this coming Tuesday.
Showers and thunderstorms may sweep through northern areas, creating lightning dangers for anyone waiting outside to vote or walking to polling stations.
Mississippi
Most of the severe thunderstorms that threaten Mississippi on Monday night will have departed the state by the time polls open on Tuesday. Some communities, however, may be cleaning up from storm damage and dealing with power outages.
Humidity will lower across most of the state during the day. Higher relative humidity percentages lower voter turnout, Loftus found.
Texas
"Texas voters are more influenced by temperature than rainfall," according to Loftus. "Texan Democrats fair better in cooler weather as opposed to warm conditions."
As dry weather dominates Texas, northern areas will be seasonably cooler with highs mostly in the 60s. Highs will range from near 80 in San Antonio and Houston, which is not far from normal, to around 90 in Deep South Texas.
RELATED:
Analysis: The role of weather in the elections (https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/experts-explain-the-role-of-weather-in-elections/70006486)
How Carolinas, Florida are handling the upcoming midterm elections following 2 devastating hurricanes (https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/how-carolinas-florida-are-handling-the-upcoming-midterm-elections-following-2-devastating-hurricanes/70006424)
Florida's red tide outbreak could influence the outcome of hotly contested Senate race in 2018 midterms (https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/floridas-red-tide-outbreak-could-influence-the-outcome-of-hotly-contested-senate-race-in-2018-midterms/70006334)
Missouri
"Voters aren’t necessarily deterred from venturing out to the polls when it’s raining," Loftus said.
A bit of chilly rain may dampen Election Day in northeastern areas of the state, especially in the morning. Voters across all of the state will have to bundle up as a chilly wind will blow.
Iowa
It will be dreary for voters headed to the polls in the morning with some chilly rain expected across eastern areas. Brisk winds that can hold temperatures to the 40s will persist much longer across the state and create even lower AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures.
Wisconsin
"Wisconsin likes when all the stormy weather clears," according to Loftus, "the more minutes of sunshine the better."
The opposite will occur as a storm is anticipated to unleash rain and wind across Wisconsin on Tuesday. The rain may mix with or change to snow in northern and western areas.
North Dakota
Voters will have to bundle up before heading to the polls. Highs may be held largely to the 30s, which is about 10 degrees Fahrenheit below normal. Brisk winds may create bitterly lower AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures.
Some snow may attempt to drop over northern areas in the afternoon.
https://accuweather.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/6d4281e/2147483647/resize/590x/quality/90/?url=http%3A%2F%2Faccuweather-bsp.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fae%2Fbb%2F77844e844b25bba39 9b9a6393ee2%2Fsecond-voting-nov-2.jpg
In this Tuesday, Oct. 30, 2018, file photo, canvassing board members Judge Tanya Brinkley, left, and Judge Victoria Ferrer verify signatures on mail-in ballots at the Miami-Dade County Elections Department, in Miami. Long lines, broken voting machines and poll worker confusion are all common at polling places across the country on Election Day. With more people voting early, some of these issues are already popping up in this year’s midterm election. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky, File)
Montana
High temperatures 10 degrees or more below normal can hinder voter turnout in Montana, according to Loftus.
Such temperatures are anticipated on Tuesday with highs generally in the 30s and lower 40s. Rain and snow showers may occur, especially across western and central areas.
Colorado
Snow showers may stream into the northern mountains, creating slick travel. Election Day will otherwise be mostly dry. Voters will need jackets with highs about 5-10 degrees below normal in the forecast.
Arizona
"Sunny but cooler weather enables Arizonans to vote," Loftus said. "They are most likely not to vote when conditions are cloudy, wet or warm."
None of the deterring conditions are expected with abundant sunshine and seasonable temperatures in store.
Nevada
No storms threaten to hinder voters from heading to the polls in Nevada. Election Day is anticipated to be sunny to partly cloudy, dry and calm. Highs may range from the 40s in the state’s northeastern corner to the 70s in the south.
Download the free AccuWeather app to find out a more precise forecast for when you plan to cast your vote on Tuesday.
Loftus utilized L2 (http://www.l2political.com/products/data/) as a resource when conducting research, which included analyzing weather trends and voter data to primary elections dating as far back as 1996.
While this data was based on primary elections, similar behavior is expected for the upcoming midterm elections.