Palladium will never be in the 300's ever again, unless a new Currency is introduced!Quote:
Originally Posted by Stop Making Cents
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Palladium will never be in the 300's ever again, unless a new Currency is introduced!Quote:
Originally Posted by Stop Making Cents
Too early IMO, Pd will break out soon!Quote:
Originally Posted by DMac
I couldn't help notice the impressive moves Palladium has made the yesterday and today....shoot..and the past year....
Could be. Physical Pd will not leave my hands. Paper - that's another story. $10/share is good in my book!Quote:
Originally Posted by Neuro
edit: as Sagi (RIP GIM) once told me, no one ever went broke taking profits.
Oh indeed, and I agree with your priorities. There is a possibility that Pd will bounce one time from around 580 to low 500's before breakout of the cup and handle formation too. Congratulations to your paper profit, transform it to real stuff pronto!Quote:
Originally Posted by DMac
I think Pd was up and smelled a multi year high today. It should take off once over 600 IMO, but I wouldn't be surprised if we go back to low 500's before that happens!Quote:
Originally Posted by Neuro
Palladium Explodes to the Upside
Submitted by madhedgefundtrader on 10/03/2010 08:32 -0500
Exchange Traded FundFree MoneyToyota
If you are thrilled about the recent performance of gold, you have to be absolutely ecstatic about the ballistic rise of palladium, which has soared by 35% in the past two months. Regular readers who already know that I have been pounding the table all year on palladium are now cashing in big time. Double dippers beware! Moves like this by industrial commodities do not occur in the face of a collapsing economy.
Palladium, named after Pallas, the Greek goddess of wisdom, has been mined in South America for over 1,000 years, was discovered as an element in 1804, and saw jewelry use start in 1939. But in 1975 it really came into its own when a nascent environmental movement got legislation passed requiring catalytic converters on all new American cars.
Toyota’s USA’s president, Jim Lentz, believes that the US car market will recover from the present 12 million annual units to 15 million by 2015. You can forget the drug induced haze of 20 million annual units free money brought us, returning in our lifetime. Fewer than one million of these will be hybrids or electrics. That means industry demand for catalytic converters is ramping up by 3 million units a year.
Which catalyst will the auto makers choose? Palladium at $580 an ounce or platinum at $1,680 an ounce? Hmmmm, let me think. They do have new management now, so maybe they’ll figure it out. Some 80% of the world’s palladium production comes from Russia and South Africa, dubious sources on the best of days. That means that a long position in this white metal gives you a free call on political instability in these two less than perfectly run countries.
Also known as the “poor man’s platinum,” demand for palladium for jewelry in China has been soaring with the growth of the middle class. On top of this, you can add $387 million of new demand from the palladium ETF (PALL) launched in January, which will soak up a hefty 10% of the world’s production.
Those set up to trade the futures can play the Decembers contract, where a margin of $3,713 gets you a 100 ounce exposure worth $53,900. If you are looking for something to stash in your gun safe, bury in the backyard, or give to the grandkids on their college graduation, get physical. You can buy 100 ounce bars at $50 over spot, or Royal Canadian Mint one ounce .9995% fine palladium Maple Leaf coins at $50 over spot. And yes, you can even buy them on Amazon by clicking here at http://www.amazon.com/Palladium-Ounc...5257880&sr=8-1
To see the data, charts, and graphs that support this research piece, as well as more iconoclastic and out-of-consensus analysis, please visit me at www.madhedgefundtrader.com . There, you will find the conventional wisdom mercilessly flailed and tortured daily, and my last two years of research reports available for free. You can also listen to me on Hedge Fund Radio by clicking on “This Week on Hedge Fund Radio” in the upper right corner of my home page.
ZH
Today it seems Palladium has broken out! I think it has an all-time high at around $1000/ounce. It may be that it won't reach resistance until that level...
i'm unsure of whether to sell it at $1,000 or hold out for insane-tin-foil-hat cold fusion $10,000 pricing.
I know! I just have 1.5 ounces of it, so I probably just hold out for the insane. But on the other hand, it is not a very good SHTF metal, which may be more likely short term than the up in the cloud cold fusion 10.000 level. If you have a few ounces maybe sell half at a thousand, and you keep the rest free of charge with a few dollars in your pocket, for possible insane gains...Quote:
Originally Posted by chad
Now isn't this a beauty?
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/pd1825nyb.gif
It has broken out of it's gigantic cup and handle formation, and today it appears it has decisively broken the 600 barrier, with a high today of 624, right now trading at 610. Next stop $1000/ounce!?!
if it hits $1,000, i'm selling it and paying off my house.
I grabbed a single ounce when was 180.00 roughly (cost me 220.00), wish I had the 2,200 for that 10 oz bar my dealer was taunting me with. As with some here I am holding it for cold fusion just in case but will prob trade it for silver if/when it hits 1,000.
Another extraordinary day for Pd right now up $20 to $628...
CFTC announced that there is fraud in silver (surprise, surprise). This may be breaking everything free.
I also bought my only ounce at that range.Quote:
Originally Posted by Plastic
Late 08 or early 09. Best damn idea I have probably had to date.
Keep kicking myself for not picking up more. Oh well.
Quote:
Originally Posted by osoab
Yup, I shoulda put that damned bar on my credit card.
Friggen hindsight......
http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNe...s20101027.html
Barclays Capital says labor-related supply disruptions have the potential to widen its forecast for the supply/demand deficit in the palladium market. In its daily report, Barclays cites improving industrial and strong investor demand. On the supply side, the bank cites improvement in Aquarius Platinum’s output for platinum and palladium in the early part of the fiscal year that ends next June 30, but maintains fiscal-year 2011 production guidance. However, the National Union of Mineworkers says more employees have joined a four-week strike at the Anglo Platinum and Xstrata Matotolo mine. “Given the ongoing recovery in underlying PGM demand, and our expectations for only modest mine supply growth this year and next, supply disruptions are likely to deepen our forecasted market deficit.”
Do you only owe 5000 on your house, or did you increase your holdings in secret?... 8)Quote:
Originally Posted by chad
Won't be much demand for Palladium when soon most Americans are jobless and homeless and carless.Quote:
Over half of the supply of palladium and its congener platinum goes into catalytic converters, which convert up to 90% of harmful gases from auto exhaust (hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxide) into less harmful substances (nitrogen, carbon dioxide and water vapor).
[img width=600 height=406]http://cache.boston.com/universal/site_graphics/blogs/bigpicture/recess_03_18/r32_18254339.jpg[/img]
increased holdings this summer. ;DQuote:
Originally Posted by Neuro
WELL DONE! You are a ****** genius Chad! Still keep a couple of ounces to hold out for the incredible, will ya.?Quote:
Originally Posted by chad
i have decided i'll always keep 5 ounces. there's some guy on ebay selling 5 gram sealed bars for $145 delivered. high i know, but i bought one anyway :DQuote:
Originally Posted by Neuro
palladium weekly chart,
+$54, or 9.1%
"Mind the Gap" as they say in London ;D
Pd was earlier today at 701. Right now trading at 693...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Neuro
709.00 now. :P
Mindbuckling!
$734 right now with a new high of 741. It is keeping the pace with silver even!
I noticed one point yesterday that Pd had gone up $25 while Pt went up $8. 3x the rise at less than 1/2 the price this is greater than 6x the performance. Go Pd, go!
It is up 28 bones so far today, damn right back up to 725.00 an ounce.
Pd has exceeded its early Nov high, first of any of the PMs (& even copper) to do so, see Mar-11 contract, leader of the pack, woot! 8)
It is getting the booster rockets warmed up...Quote:
Originally Posted by PatColo
Pd is kicking butt again today! Palladium rockets?
And there is no talk about cold fusion yet! That may fuel a real rocket. Not to mention propel Pd to 10k!Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnQPublic
If cold fusion is a real phenomenon, Pd could be $25,000-$100,000!Quote:
Originally Posted by Neuro
And I only have 1 ounce of the stuff... :(
Oh definitely, but I expect just the rumor of it being real would propel it to 10k/ounce, and it is not totally impossible it will happen in this run up, even within a year or two... Damn it Rhodium went from 300 to 10 k on just a perceived shortage in a couple of years. And then it went from 10k to 800 in 6 months or so...Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnQPublic
Today Pd seems to break out again, been up to $777, which I think is a new record, possibly we will see a thousand dollars in January or February! Beautiful parabolic chart!
A little item to keep your eye on:
Outlook 2011: China Says No More Cars, Down Goes the Auto Industry
By Dian L. Chu, EconForecast
While the world is still unwrapping the surprise Christmas gift from China in the form of a interest rate hike of 25 basis points, this other piece of news with ample implication to the auto industry seems to have gone largely under the radar--The City of Beijing will limit the number of new license plates issued in 2011 to 240,000 to help control traffic congestion. Xinhua reported that car buyers in Beijing will have to draw lots before obtaining a vehicle license plate.
Beijing – An Auto Gold Mine
In 2009, Chinese government introduced tax incentives for cars with engine sizes of 1.6 liters or smaller. The move propelled China to the world’s biggest auto market that year, surpassing the United States. The trend has continued in the first 11 months of 2010--automakers in China shipped a total of 16.4 million vehicles, up 34% year-over-year.
Beijing is China's largest auto market and regarded by auto manufacturers as a gold mine. Statistics from the Beijing Municipal Commission of Transport show that the city's total number of automobiles stood at around 4.8 million, up almost 85% from 2005.
Carriage Before Horse
The problem is that the Chinese government is putting the carriage before the horse--encouraging consumers to buy cars without building enough roads and parking lots to support the auto boom. This problem is not unique to the city of Beijing, although it is the first resorting to this somewhat drastic measure to alleviate its horrendous traffic situation.
50% Drop in New Car Sales
With this new vehicle limit, China Automobile Dealers Association already came out with estimate that new car sales in Beijing are likely to decline 50% to around 400,000 next year.
Although this policy is only implemented in Beijing, it could have great influence over other large cities as Beijing is hardly the only city with poor urban planning suffering from the Great Traffic Jam, which could be a huge blow to the auto industry.
China – A Critical Auto Success Factor
China has been a major salvation to global automakers that are still struggling from a severe downturn in 2009 in the developed car markets. As such, position in China has become one of the most critical aspects of any auto company’s success. General Motor (GM), Volkswagen AG, Toyota Motor (TM), Ford Motor (F), and other industry heavy weights are all competing intensely for a bigger slice of the Chinese market (See China Car Market Chart).
Although China auto market is expected to slow down in the coming years (see Predicted Sales Chart) partly because the tax incentives that help drive the auto sales are set to expire on Dec. 31, 2010, the world’s top auto companies still have high hopes for China.
Great Auto Growth Sans Roads & Parking?
Bloomberg reported that world’s largest automakers-GM, Volkswagen, Toyota, and Nissan all expect sales in China to grow anywhere from 10% to 17% in 2011. While most auto companies commented that it is too soon to talk about the effect this measure will have on car sales, there’s no getting around the fact that without sufficient roads and parking spaces, any great growth potential (See Predicted Sales Chart) in China is basically meaningless.
Infrastructure Gap For The Next Decade
As discussed in my previous analysis, China has inadequate logistic infrastructure to meet the needs of its mass population and heavy industrial business, partly reflecting poor planning by the local and central officials. As much as the country has been racing to build and upgrade its transportation system, this new restriction speaks volume that the deficiency most likely will persist in the next decade or so.
Raw-Material Heavy Cost Structure
Conceivably, the new vehicle cap, the also new 4% increase on fuel prices, and the latest interest rate hike to rein in escalating inflation and asset bubbles would constitute a triple whammy to the already severely recession-hit auto sector. Furthermore, since the automaker cost structure is heavy on the raw material, the global inflation pressure would hit input costs more so than other sectors.
Then, you also have companies already made resource commitments based on the prior robust China growth forecasts. For example, Ford will open 66 new dealerships in China by the end of the year, bringing its total to 100 new dealers in the country in 2010 and its total number of outlets to 340. Daimler AG also plans to invest €3 billion by 2015 to expand its production facilities in China.
Beware of the “Bullwhip Effect”
This suggests automaker stocks and/or ETFs, mutual funds with Chinese auto exposure, including but not limited to the aforementioned companies, could be subject to significant revaluation based on new tightening measures coming out of China, which could only intensify and likely extend beyond 2011. And this could also have a “Bullwhip Effect” up and down the entire auto supply chain.
Auto Sector Could Be A Short
Shares of Chinese (see China Car Maker Ranking Table) and German automakers like SAIC Motor Corp. (600104:SS), China’s largest automaker, Hyundai Motor Co., South Korea’s biggest carmaker, BMW, Volkswagen AG, are already seeing selling pressure after city of Beijing decision to impose the limit. Further selloff could be expected as fund managers and traders start doing some serious portfolio VaR shuffling after the start of the New Year.
Compared to its peer group, GM is probably the most vulnerable, as China has become the largest single market for GM since the first half of 2010, surpassing the home market. So, it looks like American taxpayers would need to wait a bit longer for GM to pay off the taxpayer-funded bailout.
Nevertheless, look on the bright side--it is fortunate that GM’s IPO took place before these negative announcements came out, so GM was able to plow $1.8 billion of the IPO money back to the U.S. Treasury Dept.
Regardless, as I see the ticker right now both PD and Pt are up $20!. For Pt that is 1.1%, for Pd that is 2.6%. Pd is one hot doggie (no offense to the silver dog).