ahh- missed that link keehah
This one is interesting
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CI0rv...yer_embedded#!
Printable View
ahh- missed that link keehah
This one is interesting
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CI0rv...yer_embedded#!
Rumors that this comet could be the Blue Kachina prophecized by the Hopi indians which is the predecessor to the Red Kachina which will cause the cleansing of the Earth.
Prophecy, I know but interesting nonetheless.
http://strictlyhonest.com/comet-elen...-star-kachina/
Keehah's Prediction: That was it. The show is over.
(other than a small meteor shower in fall)
http://members.westnet.com.au/mmatti/sc.htm
http://members.westnet.com.au/mmatti...lightcurve.gif
http://www.universetoday.com/wp-cont...isrupition.gif
http://www.universetoday.com/88494/c...isintigrating/
Perhaps the CME also electrically blasted the comet apart, but I have yet to see evidence of this.Quote:
Animation of 5 images taken Aug 19,22,23,27,29 ...Astronomers monitoring Comet Elenin have noticed the comet has decreased in brightness the past week, and the coma is now elongating and diffusing. Credit: Michael Mattiazzo.
On August 19, a massive solar flare and coronal mass ejection hit the comet, which may have been the beginning of the end for the much ballyhooed lump...
“We’ve been following it in the STEREO spacecraft images and a number of amateurs have been following it in their telescopes,” said Australian amateur astronomer Ian Musgrave, author of the Astroblog website. “Shortly after the coronal mass ejection the comet flared up and you could see some beautiful details in the tail, with the tail was twisting about in the solar wind. But shortly after that Earth- bound amateurs reported a huge decrease in the intensity of the comet.
Comet Elenin is unique in its orbital interaction exposing the earth to it and the sun. But it is not a large one.
But for most comets the last century the entire show has basically been the coma brightening for days or months. Then it drops and the comet just fades away.
I would not be at all surprised if this ends up being the end of the show for Elenin. It normally is.
It may have electrically stabilized with the local environment.
Perhaps a solar flare will knock off the rest of the tail in the next month that may come our way. But it seems to have already happened and drained away that charged plasma before any such event would cause it to come our way in the next few weeks.
In other words we did't dodge a bullet, but that the sun fired too soon. :)
Elenin it seems was only loaded with one cartridge, it only had the power of a BB, and the sun dischared it when it was aimed 90 degrees away from earth.
If the comet was larger or had more capacitance, it would have quickly recovered its brightness after the solar flare and continued to brighten as it traveled towards the sun, and be recharged to take another shot (eject another tail) better aimed at earth.
so what's the story?
Doom or no doom?
(cue Howie Mandel) lol
http://images.nationalgeographic.com...98_200x150.jpg
National Geographic, June 22, 2011: New Comet Found; May Be Visible From Earth in 2013
Icy body may even be bright enough to be seen in the day, expert says.
By March 2013 the comet, named C/2011 L4 (PANSTARRS), is expected to come within 30 million miles (48 million kilometers) of the sun—closer even than the innermost planet, Mercury...
"The current path of the comet ...showing it coming up from the south—underneath the Earth—going up the back side of the sun and into the north sky, very nearly perpendicular to the plane of the solar system," Wainscoat said.
The fact that it's going around the back of the sun from our point of view may ultimately affect the comet's visibility, but a lot will depend on how close the body actually gets to the sun.
Also, whether the comet is north or south of the sun when it reaches peak brightness will determine which hemisphere on Earth gets the better view.
For now, "we think it will be an easy binocular target, but it may very well make it to naked-eye level, and there is even a potential that it may be visible during the day," Wainscoat said.
"But it's just really too early to tell. We may not know for sure until only a few weeks before it gets here."
http://www.spaceweather.com/
SO MUCH FOR DOOMSDAY: Comet Elenin (C/2010 X1), widely known for inaccurate reports of its threat to Earth, appears to be breaking apart. Observations by amateur astronomer Michael Mattiazzo of Castlemaine, Australia show a rapid dimming and elongation of the comet's nucleus akin to that of Comet LINEAR (C/1999 S4), which also disintegrated when it approached the sun in 2000. Comets are fragile objects, so this development while unexpected comes as no surprise. Readers with pertinent images of Elenin are invited to submit them here.
Here is another article on the disintegration:
http://www.examiner.com/space-news-i...disintegrating
But now we'll get sugar coated and glazed...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WAUt1OfmFEI&feature=related
What disintegration? Why is this claim made?Quote:
Originally Posted by platinumdude
The link mentions "nucleus in the process of disintegrating" but all I see in the images is the coma fading. In no way are those pictures clear enough to show a 2km rock breaking apart inside that Jupiter sized plasma coma.
The coma is also elongating. Which indicates that the comet may very well not be in one chunk anymore.Quote:
Originally Posted by keehah
ie smaller pieces spread out over a larger distance should make it appear dimmer and to look more elongated.
Being as close to Perihelion as it is, it should be getting brighter and more well defined, but it's not.
http://members.westnet.com.au/mmatti...isrupition.gif
Besides, if it breaks up is that a problem? Those pieces are still many millions of miles away and they will have no effect on the Earth. Same as if it were in one piece.
Let us just say the coma is elongating then. The rest is just speculation bias towards incorrect theoretical understanding of the situation. Disinformation.
If it did break up, then this could increase the strength of any meteor storm in early November as we cross the comet's path. I would expect any nucleus disintigration should follow observations of energetic electromagnetic jetting. Observations suggest CME discharge (coma got smaller) and more distorted coma due to higher solar wind as the comet gets nearest to the sun. I have yet to see any pictures showing anything other than the smaller coma after being hit by the CME.
http://www.thunderbolts.info/tpod/20...0119comets.htm
Quote:
“Splitting and jetting may be connected … At the moment Comet West split, the individual fragments brightened noticeably, and propelled large quantities of dust into space in the first of some dozen bursts”. The same could be said for the more recent Comet Linear breakup.
Why would intense, high-velocity jets and explosions of dust, traveling at supersonic speeds, precede the fragmentation of a comet nucleus? In the electrical model of comets, the answer is obvious. The behavior of comets will never be understood in simple mechanical terms because they are electrified bodies orbiting within the plasma environment of an electrified Sun. The solar plasma behaves like a very good conductor in the Sun's electrical connection with the galaxy. And just like any good conductor, the electric field within the plasma is very low. But unlike good metal conductors, the solar plasma is of extremely low density and therefore its current-carrying ability is limited.
Comets must adjust to the changing plasma potential as they move radially toward or away from the Sun. This adjustment is not so difficult on the long, slow journey through the outer reaches of the solar system. But it usually involves visible electric discharge effects as the comet dashes through the inner solar system.
The comet nucleus behaves like a capacitor. And as any electrical engineer knows, if a discharge occurs within a capacitor it will explode violently. That is what causes comet nuclei to fragment and it is why the event is commonly preceded by outbursts far more energetic than could be explained by sublimating ices. The energy is provided by the stored electrical energy within the nucleus.
All that is required to trigger the comet fragmentation is an electrical breakdown within the comet. In this sense, it may be analogous to the electrical breakdown evident in an earthquake. And that breakdown in the comet may happen with any sudden change in the solar plasma environment. The more sudden the change in the comet's electrical environment, the more likely that flaring and fragmentation will occur.
So how would you explain its dimming and elongating at the one time in its orbit that it should be brightening and becoming more well-defined?Quote:
Originally Posted by keehah
Again, is there a problem if it breaks up? You come across as not liking the idea that it might be breaking up.
I thought I answered the issue if it breaks up quite clearly in my post above no? And post #43 tells what caused the dimming.Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe King
Are you a bot just programmed to ask questions? ;)
Quit being so emotional Joe, it is not that I don't like the idea of nucleus disintigration (in fact I quoted a good explanation for such events), its that we have seen no evidence (nothing pasted or linked in this thread anyway) of the nucleus disintigrating in this comet.
All we have are statement and image of a enlongated plasma coma (coma tails more) as the comet nears closest approach to the sun as would be expected without significant disintigration of the nucleus.
http://www.oarval.org/section3_15.htm
Quote:
The supposed nucleus of the comet is the bright centre of the coma.
The coma and the tails develop markedly as the comet gets closer to the Sun, with tail lengths sometimes growing as long as 100 million kilometres.
Who's being emotional?
You asked...."What disintegration? Why is this claim made?"....and I told you why they think it's coming apart. ie the coma shouldn't be dimming and elongating at this point.
Is there definitive proof that it's breaking up? No. However its observed characteristics say that it very well could be breaking up.
My shit was scientific rigor. ;DQuote:
Originally Posted by Joe King
So is everything still speculation at this point?
Yes.
However, by just observing it, one can see that something has changed about it.
In all my life I've always heard that comets tend to get brighter and more defined the closer they get to the Sun, not dimmer and stretched out.
So I'd say that it's certainly plausable that, to at least some degree, it may have broken apart. At this point, only time will tell.
Sashying in from outer space to meet first partners earth and sun was a bold move (see video for what could have been), but the system is just not all that charged about the little guy to amplify a tune we can see (or hear).Quote:
Originally Posted by vacuum
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEG-1iYpgKU
So what's up with this thing?
Is it or is it not?
Sorry Serpo I can see inbeded links.
I can on other links but not here???
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aVlhO...layer_embeddedQuote:
Originally Posted by Nomoss
Not really sure you want to see this...........Quote:
Originally Posted by Nomoss
Huge Defunct Satellite to Plunge to Earth Soon, NASA Says
by Leonard David, SPACE.com’s Space Insider Columnist Date: 07 September 2011
Heads up! That's the word from NASA today (Sept. 7) given the impending re-entry of a 6.5-ton satellite through Earth's atmosphere.
The huge Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) is expected to re-enter Earth's atmosphere in an uncontrolled fall in late September or early October. Much of the spacecraft is expected to burn up during re-entry, but some pieces are expected to make it intact to the ground, NASA officials said.
The U.S. space agency will be taking measures to inform the public about the pieces of the spacecraft that are expected to survive re-entry.
http://badc.nerc.ac.uk/data/uars/
Quote:
The Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) level 3A data set consists of daily near global (80°N - 80°S) measurements of atmospheric trace gases, temperature, aerosols and wind profiles, as well as measurements of solar UV spectra and charged particles injected into the Earth's atmosphere. Four instruments measure chemical composition. These instruments include the Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Spectrometer (CLAES), the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), the Improved Stratospheric and Mesospheric Sounder (ISAMS), and the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS).
...Level 3A also holds the correlative analyses which were produced by the UK Met. Office as their contribution to the UARS project.
...The Goddard UARS project office keeps an archive to which investigators can submit copies of interesting or useful plots
I hope it falls on congress heads
Comet Elenin Poses No Threat to Earth
http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/images/comet...110504-640.jpg Trajectory of comet Elenin. Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech
› Larger image
- Share2577
August 16, 2011
Often, comets are portrayed as harbingers of gloom and doom in movies and on television, but most pose no threat to Earth. Comet Elenin, the latest comet to visit our inner solar system, is no exception. Elenin will pass about 22 million miles (35 million kilometers) from Earth during its closest approach on Oct. 16, 2011.
Also known by its astronomical name C/2010 X1, the comet was first detected on Dec. 10, 2010 by Leonid Elenin, an observer in Lyubertsy, Russia, who made the discovery "remotely" using an observatory in New Mexico. At that time, Elenin was about 401 million miles (647 million kilometers) from Earth. Since its discovery, Comet Elenin has – as all comets do – closed the distance to Earth's vicinity as it makes its way closer to perihelion, its closest point to the sun.
NASA scientists have taken time over the last several months to answer your questions. Compiled below are the some of the most popular questions, with answers from Don Yeomans of NASA's Near-Earth Object Program Office at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., and David Morrison of the NASA Astrobiology Institute at the NASA Ames Research Center in Moffett Field, Calif.
Most Popular Questions About Comet Elenin
When will Comet Elenin come closest to the Earth and appear the brightest?
Comet Elenin should be at its brightest shortly before the time of its closest approach to Earth on Oct. 16, 2011. At its closest point, it will be 22 million miles (35 million kilometers) from us.
Will Comet Elenin come close to the Earth or between the Earth and the moon?
Comet Elenin will not come closer to Earth than 22 million miles (35 million kilometers). That's more than 90 times the distance to the moon.
Can this comet influence us from where it is, or where it will be in the future? Can this celestial object cause shifting of the tides or even tectonic plates here on Earth?
There have been incorrect speculations on the Internet that alignments of comet Elenin with other celestial bodies could cause consequences for Earth and external forces could cause comet Elenin to come closer. "Any approximate alignments of comet Elenin with other celestial bodies are meaningless, and the comet will not encounter any dark bodies that could perturb its orbit, nor will it influence us in any way here on Earth," said Don Yeomans, a scientist at NASA JPL.
"Comet Elenin will not only be far away, it is also on the small side for comets," said Yeomans. "And comets are not the most densely-packed objects out there. They usually have the density of something akin to loosely packed icy dirt.
"So you've got a modest-sized icy dirtball that is getting no closer than 35 million kilometers [about 22 million miles)," said Yeomans. "It will have an immeasurably minuscule influence on our planet. By comparison, my subcompact automobile exerts a greater influence on the ocean's tides than comet Elenin ever will."
I've heard about three days of darkness because of Comet Elenin. Will Elenin block out the sun for three days?
"As seen from the Earth, comet Elenin will not cross the sun's face," says Yeomans.
But even if it could cross the sun, which it can't, astrobiologist David Morrison notes that comet Elenin is about 2-3 miles (3-5 kilometers) wide, while the sun is roughly 865,000 miles (1,392,082 kilometers) across. How could such a small object block the sun, which is such a large object?
Let's think about an eclipse of the sun, which happens when the moon appears between the Earth and the sun. The moon is about 2,500 miles (4,000 kilometers) in diameter, and has the same apparent size as the sun when it is about 250,000 miles (400,000 kilometers) away -- roughly 100 times its own diameter. For a comet with a diameter of about 2-3 miles (3-5 kilometers) to cover the sun it would have to be within 250 miles (400 kilometers), roughly the orbital altitude of the International Space Station. However, as stated above, this comet will come no closer to Earth than 22 million miles.
I've heard there is a "brown dwarf" theory about Comet Elenin. Would its mass be enough to pull Comet Honda's trajectory a significant amount? Could this be used to determine the mass of Elenin?
Morrison says that there is no 'brown dwarf theory' of this comet. "A comet is nothing like a brown dwarf. You are correct that the way astronomers measure the mass of one object is by its gravitational effect on another, but comets are far too small to have a measureable influence on anything."
If we had a black or brown dwarf in our outer solar system, I guess no one could see it, right?
"No, that's not correct," says Morrison. "If we had a brown dwarf star in the outer solar system, we could see it, detect its infrared energy and measure its perturbing effect on other objects. There is no brown dwarf in the solar system, otherwise we would have detected it. And there is no such thing as a black dwarf."
Will Comet Elenin be visible to the naked eye when it's closer to us? I missed Hale-Bopp's passing, so I want to know if we'll actually be able to see something in the sky when Elenin passes.
We don't know yet if Comet Elenin will be visible to the naked eye. Morrison says, "At the rate it is going, seeing the comet at its best in early October will require binoculars and a very dark sky. Unfortunately, Elenin is no substitute for seeing comet Hale-Bopp, which was the brightest comet of the past several decades."
"This comet may not put on a great show. Just as certainly, it will not cause any disruptions here on Earth. But, there is a cause to marvel," said Yeomans. "This intrepid little traveler will offer astronomers a chance to study a relatively young comet that came here from well beyond our solar system's planetary region. After a short while, it will be headed back out again, and we will not see or hear from Elenin for thousands of years. That's pretty cool."
This comet has been called 'wimpy' by NASA scientists. Why?
"We're talking about how a comet looks as it safely flies past us," said Yeomans of NASA's Near-Earth Object Program Office. "Some cometary visitors arriving from beyond the planetary region – like Hale-Bopp in 1997 -- have really lit up the night sky where you can see them easily with the naked eye as they safely transit the inner-solar system. But Elenin is trending toward the other end of the spectrum. You'll probably need a good pair of binoculars, clear skies and a dark, secluded location to see it even on its brightest night."
Why aren't you talking more about Comet Elenin? If these things are small and nothing to worry about, why has there been no public info on Comet Elenin?
Comet Elenin hasn't received much press precisely because it is small and faint. Several new comets are discovered each year, and you don't normally hear about them either. The truth is that Elenin has received much more attention than it deserves due to a variety of Internet postings that are untrue. The information NASA has on Elenin is readily available on the Internet. (See http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.cfm?release=2011-135) If this comet were any danger to anyone, you would certainly know about it. For more information, visit NASA's AsteroidWatch site at http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/asteroidwatch/.
I've heard NASA has observed Elenin many times more than other comets. Is this true, and is NASA playing this comet down?
NASA regularly detects, tracks and characterizes asteroids and comets passing relatively close to Earth using both ground- and space-based telescopes. The Near-Earth Object Observations Program, commonly called "Spaceguard," discovers these objects, characterizes a subset of them and predicts their paths to determine if any could be potentially hazardous to our planet. For more information, visit the NASA-JPL Near Earth objects site at http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/ .
However, neither NASA nor JPL is in the business of actively observing Elenin or any other comet. Most of the posted observations are made by amateur astronomers around the world. Since Elenin has had so much publicity, it naturally has attracted more observers.
I was looking at the orbital diagram of Comet Elenin on the JPL website, and I was wondering why the orbit shows some angles when zooming? If you pick any other comet, you can see that there are no angles or bends.
Many people are trying to plot the orbit of the comet with the routine on the JPL website, without realizing that this is just a simple visualization tool. While the tool has been recently improved to show smoother trajectories near the sun, it is not a scientific program to generate an accurate orbit. Yeomans explains that the orbit plotter on the Near-Earth Object website is not meant to accurately depict the true motion of objects over long time intervals, nor is it accurate during close planetary encounters. For more accurate long-term plotting, Yeomans suggests using the JPL Horizons system instead: http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons.cgi...tr=C/2010%20X1 .
http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.cfm?release=2011-255
EE_, this was a valuable thread with lots of input and other members were upset that it was deleted, so I restored it. No hard feelings.
When is it supposed to come near?
Tuesday is sposta be the big day...
Frankly there's been so many "big days" come and go that I plan to have a couple beers at the bar w/ some buds that night.
This tuesday?
Well shit, that sucks, my little boy is literaly going to be coming any day now and I dont want to be in a hospital when the world ends, 40 minutes away from my preps! The damn zombies will take us over before then!
Better load out the car now. Damn the doctors and nurses, I'll arm them too! Maybe even take a few cute ones along as we fight our way back through the hordes!
don't worry about it man... Enjoy the birth of your kid. Throw a BOB in the trunk of you're that worried about it. That's about all you could do anyway.
Born on the day the comet came.... lol That's like an omen or something. He is to be the great warrior promised long ago....lol
Yeah thats what Im thinking. The Patrick the Great, sent to free us from bondage and slavery! Born at the passing of the commet, as the prophesy fore-told!
Also, if he comes tonight, hell be born during the Indiana Jones Marathon, so either way, hes destined for greatness! :D
Say that again, so much for this taking one day at a time thing.Quote:
Originally Posted by JJ.G0ldD0t
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=N3MX0rMcVwU#!http://allnibiru247.wordpress.com/
what time is elenin suppose to pass by?
Quote:
Originally Posted by ximmy
http://www.myweathertech.com/2011/09...rth-asteroids/
The source of all this solar and geomagnetic activity is sunspot AR1302. Measuring more than 150,000 km from end to end, the sprawling active region is visible even without a solar telescope. Fabiano Belisário Diniz saw it plainly in last night's sunset from Curitiba, Brazil:It was overcast and cold all day long, but at the end of the day a break in the clouds revealed the sun and AR1302," says Diniz. "What a great sight!" The sunspot has quieted down since unleashing dual X-flares on Sept. 22nd and 24th. Nevertheless, NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of more X-flares during the next 24 hours. Any such eruptions would be Earth-directed as the sunspot crosses the center of the solar disk
http://spaceweather.com/
As mentioned in the video:
http://spaceweather.com/
Monday Sept. 26:Quote:
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
Asteroid Date(UT) Miss Distance Mag. Size
2011 SE58 Sep 27 0.6 LD--13 m
Quote:
GEOMAGNETIC STORM--IN PROGRESS: High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras. A strong (Kp=7) geomagnetic storm is in progress.
Earth's magnetic field has been strongly disturbed since approximately 1300 UT on Sept. 26th when a CME hit our planet. The impact strongly compressed the magnetosphere, exposing geosynchronous satellites to solar wind plasma, and ignited auroras around both poles...
Elsewhere in the United States, auroras have been sighted in New York, South Dakota, and Maine. More states will surely join the list as the night unfolds. Stay tuned.
Planetary K-index
Now [Sept 27] : Kp= 4 unsettled
24-hr max: Kp= 8 severe
I wonder if this will lead to anything serious....Quote:
Originally Posted by keehah
Seeing one of them auroras would be a trip.
You may still have a chance Kali. Seems the storm is still ongoing!
Giant Sun Flare Continues to Affect Earth
http://www.tedmontgomery.com/remarks...lignments.htmlQuote:
By Trevor Stokes | September 27, 2011 10:37 AM EDT
A gigantic solar flare that erupted Saturday just won't quit and is forecasted to continue to dazzle sky watchers in Asia and Europe with aurora light shows Tuesday evening.
The sun flare, named AR1302, was 62,000 miles, several times larger than the Earth, and produced electromagnetic storms that caused ghostly light shows across the Northern Hemisphere. The storms also have the possibility of disrupting communications systems.
Officials with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center out of Boulder, Colo. called the event, "the geomagnetic storm that just won't go away," on their Facebook page on Tuesday.
So far, blasts from the sunspots haven't been threatening to life on Earth.
"None of the blasts have been squarely Earth-directed, but this could change as the sunspot turns toward our planet in the days ahead," says NASA. "AR1302 is growing and shows no immediate signs of quieting down."
The storm persisted at low levels throughout Monday night EST. The researchers concluded that a high speed solar wind was the push behind the sun flare, which maintained the low level geomagnetic storm.
Quote:
Sep. 27, 2011 Alignment The closest alignment with the earth and sun. Elenin will be only .381 AU away from the earth.