The Bitcoin Tracking Thread

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Originally Posted by Blink

What a clever way of introducing the masses to pure digital currency. Let them think they made it up to circumvent the banker criminals and once everyones on board, crash it or take it over. South Korea is a recent good example about how easy it is to crash a system...........

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Ya never know!

;D

I am not attached to Bitcoin, hell Bitcoin could be the Devil. I can see a future where banks are in control of Bitcoin by being in control of the miners, which could have been the purpose all along. However, as it stands, Bitcoin is more "honest" than the stock market and the FRN system.

It is funny that a community that consists primarily of IT-type people, nerds living in their parents' basements, and anarchists/libertarians, can play around with an infant "internet money", that initially had a free-market valueof $0.001 per bitcoin, and have now come to command a free-market price of $65 per bitcoin.

People have gone from living off of ramen noodles to being millionaires by running a program on their computer. It's pretty crazy actually. And these people would be the financial elite if Bitcoin were to truly "get big".

3 years ago, 10,000 BTC would buy 2 pizzas, delivered.

Today, you can buy a house for less than 10,000 BTC.

I am not advising anyone to buy/sell/hold bitcoins. I am just discussing them and periodically reporting the free-market price in FRNs.

As for my holdings, I might hold 0 bitcoins, or tens of thousands of them, but I can't have more than 21 million of 'em! ;D

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Originally Posted by Blink

What a clever way of introducing the masses to pure digital currency. Let them think they made it up to circumvent the banker criminals and once everyones on board, crash it or take it over. South Korea is a recent good example about how easy it is to crash a system...........

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Keep in mind the principle is the exact same as bit torrent. They are desperately trying to end that scenario with plenty of lawsuits, laws, new legislation etc...

If people ever get used to using bit coin on a daily basis, the banks will be in a very sad state.

How does one crash, or take over a decentralized phenomena is the question.

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Originally Posted by Shami-Amourae

I honestly don't know. It should have crashed by now but hasn't. If it does crash it won't be to $2 again though since people will buy it up as it goes down, all wanting to get the next bottom. There's many people, including myself who wish we loaded the boat last time it dropped to $2. I think there's strong support in the 20s and 30s now psychologically, but that's just my own guestimation. Too many veterans are waiting on the sidelines to buy up Bitcoins when the price goes down and then there's a crap load of people who know nothing about investing who are buying since the price is going up (what most inexperienced investors do.) I've spoken with the owner of Mt Gox, a Frenchie living in Japan named Mark Karpeles (MagicalTux on IRC). He's done a lot to make sure there are no flash crashes like the last time and has done a lot of work to make the servers suddenly "work slowly" when people seem to be panic selling, if you catch my drift. He works almost 16 hours a day like me, so I believe he has a good handle on things THIS TIME. Paid CIA employees don't work that long and hard, it takes someone who really believes in the cause to do it. The real reason for the last crash I think was since a hacker fucked with the price discovery with the exchange site sending Bitcoins to the value of a penny almost instantly. Mark is the most important person in the Bitcoin community who has the most influence over price discovery. He's on the crypto-anarchist side too (I believe).

I'm hoping when the price drops next time people listen to guys like Chris Duane and they all hate Bitcoin so I can buy it. Just do the opposite of what these gurus tell you since they are almost always wrong. Typically the best time to buy is when no one wants something, and know one cares.

Personally I think Bitcoin will crash one day namely as Don points out that there will be a better cryptocurrency coming down the pike. My biggest issue with Bitcoin is how much damn data the blocks take up till your Bit Client is up to date. I think it's ridiculous and needs to be simplified somehow.

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Interesting a hidden anarchist who likes to regulate market trading. Certainly I have no way of knowing what makes him tick, but it sounds like he is running the interests of those who have a lot of bitcoins those who started mining when it was easy, who are looking to unload at around this time, he aids them by disallowing or slowing down the plebs trading as market turns down, giving the BC aristocracy a limited supply side of the market to sell their shitcoins into. It is also interesting that you think there is a psychological barrier around $20-30 where many are waiting to buy in when the drop comes, I do believe you are correct on this assessment, but it means that the creator and a few of his pals will be able to make $100's of millions, for a couple of years of work, not bad, but it is important to realize this is a zero sum game. Their win is another's loss, and it will be those that are trusting and gullible and the greedy that loses, the fan club if you like, and many among those are the experienced bit coiners that believe $20-30 is the lower limit ready to go full in at that level. It is a pyramid scheme. Possibly the manipulated market price will go up to above a 100, before the plug is pulled, maybe even higher, but it will be pulled!

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Originally Posted by Neuro

Possibly the manipulated market price will go up to above a 100, before the plug is pulled, maybe even higher, but it will be pulled!

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Out of curiosity, how will the plug be pulled, and who will pull it?

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Originally Posted by madfranks

Out of curiosity, how will the plug be pulled, and who will pull it?

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If what is said about the block sizes increasing indefinitely to huge sizes, it may at some point become impractical for the average person to use bitcoins. Having to download terabytes of data just to buy something for $2 online wouldn't be attractive.

What would happen is that intermediaries would be set up that would take care of holding your bitcoins for you, and you just use them like a debit card is used today.

In that case it won't be as competitive anymore with other currencies, so it will probably not become the dominate currency, but the oldest and used for certain purposes only.

Then people will slowly start accepting only newer and more advanced crypto currencies because they are simply easier to deal with. The combination of third party brokers and a dwindling places to spend it will cause it to go extinct one day.

So basically the free market will determine when it's time is up.

What MagicalTux is doing is a good thing in my view. You could say he's biased for the large holders of Bitcoin, but I think that's more of a side effect of wanting people to want to invest in Bitcoin. It's in his incentive that Bitcoin becomes an established free market currency. All of the formal/corporate style businesses who have tried setting up exchanges have failed. Basically it's just a dude in an apartment hunkered down over his computer all day. The only reason he pulls it off is since he's one guy who works basically non-stop on the net. That's the same way with my virtual business. Professional corporations have tried to mimic stuff I do solo and failed miserably. It's the future of virtual business frankly where the corporation has less and less influence and power.

The plug won't be pulled. Basically you need enough people to think the price is going down so they all sell sell sell sell until people start buying like crazy and that restores confidence. I thought that it would happen at the $50 level but I was wrong, but no one could have predicted what happened in Cyprus. A lot of people in Southern Europe are buying Bitcoins, and the Bitcoin market is still relatively tiny so just a tiny percentage of a population now putting their wealth in Bitcoin pushes the price up. I would ideally buy in again in the sub $10 range, but I believe psychologically since the price has gotten so high then the new bottom is in the $20 range. I have no technical analysis or mathematical formulas to back this up. It's just my opinion based on what I've seen and based on the psychology of the people (gut feeling); however, I tend to be wrong as much as I'm right with Bitcoins. This is the closest thing we have to there being a free market.


I wouldn't buy any Bitcoins at this price unless I felt the market was stabilized and there were more things to buy with it. The exchange that I used to sell into with my business funds got shut down so I cant do the tax loophole trick anymore. Kinda sucks. Frankly Bitcoins was setup as an alternative currency, and lets be honest, it's a trading platform really. Merchants are afraid to use it since the prices are so unstable. If you wanted to see the price drop down to $1 I think you'd need to directly attack the Mt Gox website and drive the prices down by some serious hacking but goodluck with that. The security is now super beefed up to surpass those of professional banks.

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So basically the free market will determine when it's time is up.

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Kind of like what the market is trying to do with central banks for the last decade or so yet they keep hanging on.

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Originally Posted by vacuum

If what is said about the block sizes increasing indefinitely to huge sizes, it may at some point become impractical for the average person to use bitcoins. Having to download terabytes of data just to buy something for $2 online wouldn't be attractive.

What would happen is that intermediaries would be set up that would take care of holding your bitcoins for you, and you just use them like a debit card is used today.

In that case it won't be as competitive anymore with other currencies, so it will probably not become the dominate currency, but the oldest and used for certain purposes only.

Then people will slowly start accepting only newer and more advanced crypto currencies because they are simply easier to deal with. The combination of third party brokers and a dwindling places to spend it will cause it to go extinct one day.

So basically the free market will determine when it's time is up.

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Yeah I personally believe that's the number one flaw with Bitcoin, but I never hear it addressed, even by the major critics (who typically don't know WTF they are talking about.) Try downloading the original Bitcoin client and downloading the blocks. You'll be lucky if you finish downloading after a week with a cable modem. Now that's with only a fringe minority of people actually using Bitcoin. If the masses tried to use it it would be impractical. That's why I think Bitcoin won't be the first successful cryptocurrency, but the father of them that will spawn newer and better cryptocurrencies. The second one of those takes hold I recommend investing quite liberally in one. You could become very, very wealthy indeed with just a few hundred dollar investment and patience...

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Originally Posted by madfranks

Out of curiosity, how will the plug be pulled, and who will pull it?

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The few originators of Bitcoins, those who have millions of them, will decide to get rid of them, when the prize is right...

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Originally Posted by Neuro

The few originators of Bitcoins, those who have millions of them, will decide to get rid of them, when the prize is right...

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Most got sold at the last rally IMO.

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Originally Posted by Shami-Amourae

Most got sold at the last rally IMO.

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Perhaps, do you have data on the trading volumes? I think it is unlikely that most were sold, if say the trading data would show that less than ten times of what they hold was traded in the last month leading up to the crash, I would say it is very unlikely that they sold more than half their holdings, so what would that be 50 million bitcoins, or 2 million per day, unless of course they sold them in back room deals to some bankster. But then of course situation would be worse...

Found trading data last month was 1.8 million bitcoins traded, last run-up I doubt it was that many traded. They can't have sold that many before the flash crash a few hundred thousand perhaps, out of the easily mined 5 or so million they have, unless in a back room deal to a bankster!

http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD_trades.html

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Originally Posted by vacuum

If what is said about the block sizes increasing indefinitely to huge sizes, it may at some point become impractical for the average person to use bitcoins. Having to download terabytes of data just to buy something for $2 online wouldn't be attractive.

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You don't have to download tons of data to use bitcoins. Right now you could open a new bitcoin wallet, buy a bitcoin on ebay and within a few hours you'd have it in your wallet. Then you'd have a funded wallet and you haven't downloaded a thing.

Current price: $68.87


the thread title hasn't been accurate for a little while .... Bitcoin is over double silver spot.



(of course, Bitcoin is not superior to silver, but it sure is an interesting and increasingly popular piece of "experimental" software!)

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Originally Posted by sirgonzo420

Current price: $68.87


the thread title hasn't been accurate for a little while .... Bitcoin is over double silver spot.



(of course, Bitcoin is not superior to silver, but it sure is an interesting and increasingly popular piece of "experimental" software!)

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I'm going to start a new thread called "The Bitcoin Tracking Thread" and move a large portion of this thread over to the new one.

Ya know what hasn't been accurate for a little while? ..... F@$%ING PRICES111

i just don't understand paying $60 something for an electronic bit when you could buy 2 morgans for that.

I moved the bulk of the other bitcoin thread to this one, I think this thread title is a bit more fitting.

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Originally Posted by chad

i just don't understand paying $60 something for an electronic bit when you could buy 2 morgans for that.

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Try to stop thinking of bitcoins and gold/silver as equivalents, they're not. Morgans are great, but they are physical. Bitcoins are digital and give you the benefits of gold/silver in the digital world. I'm not saying it's better, it's just different.

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Originally Posted by madfranks

Try to stop thinking of bitcoins and gold/silver as equivalents, they're not. Morgans are great, but they are physical. Bitcoins are digital and give you the benefits of gold/silver in the digital world. I'm not saying it's better, it's just different.

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Exactly.

I am not buying bitcoins at this price, but I can surely trade bitcoins obtained at a much lower price for very real, tangible silver and gold. Here is one such place to do such a thing: http://bitcoincommodities.com/

Bitcoin, since it's inception just a few years ago, has seen more than a 6,799,900% rise in FRN-value. That rise in value can be applied to all manner of physical things, including gold and silver.


EDIT: Current BTC price: $71

EDIT one hour later: Current BTC price: $74

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Originally Posted by sirgonzo420

Exactly.

I am not buying bitcoins at this price, but I can surely trade bitcoins obtained at a much lower price for very real, tangible silver and gold. Here is one such place to do such a thing: http://bitcoincommodities.com/

Bitcoin, since it's inception just a few years ago, has seen more than a 6,799,900% rise in FRN-value. That rise in value can be applied to all manner of physical things, including gold and silver.


EDIT: Current BTC price: $71

EDIT one hour later: Current BTC price: $74

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This rally is going towards its logical conclusion, the price has doubled in about 2 weeks from $37, prior doubling took 6-7 weeks, from $19, next one to $148, would happen in 3-5 days, unless the spell is broken...

Remember, it is different this time, and normal rules of monetary system values don't apply to bitcoins, the fact is that all the other currencies are currently in hyperinflation vs bitcoins... ;)

again why in hell would i buy Bitcoin when i can buy gold an silver ? can anyone tell me why ?

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Originally Posted by mick silver

again why in hell would i buy Bitcoin when i can buy gold an silver ? can anyone tell me why ?

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No, you are a remnant of the dinosaurs!

Syncing wallet all day, gives me time to learn more about it. 29K to go. Would have downloaded the .dat but not sure how to import them so I'll wait.

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Originally Posted by mick silver

again why in hell would i buy Bitcoin when i can buy gold an silver ? can anyone tell me why ?

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bitcoins = currency
gold/silver = money

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Originally Posted by mick silver

again why in hell would i buy Bitcoin when i can buy gold an silver ? can anyone tell me why ?

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Gold and silver provide anonymous store of wealth physically; bitcoins provide anonymous store of wealth digitally.

Never really heard or knew much about bitcoins before the last week or two. I had heard it mentioned a few times but that is it. The problem is that with the price rising exponentially like it has, it is risky to get in now. Sort of like buying silver at $45 hoping that it would break through 50 and head to $100.

It could keep running but the time to buy would have been back at $2.

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Originally Posted by Son-of-Liberty

Never really heard or knew much about bitcoins before the last week or two. I had heard it mentioned a few times but that is it. The problem is that with the price rising exponentially like it has, it is risky to get in now. Sort of like buying silver at $45 hoping that it would break through 50 and head to $100.

It could keep running but the time to buy would have been back at $2.

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That is almost exactly what they told me when I wanted to drop a grand into GOOG as a lotto play.

This really is something else. All economic indicators point to this being classic bubble activity, but nothing like bitcoins has ever been on the market before. There is no historical trend to base prices off of, and no real floor has ever been established for them. Bitcoins have been breaking new grounds through unknown territory ever since their inception.

That being said, human nature doesn't change, but the internet allows price discovery and market changes to occur much faster than before. This mania could push bitcoins phenominally high and the crash could be devastating, all in a matter of a few weeks.

max keiser was on aj the other doing a big rant about bit coin and how it was going to save the world. i have to wonder if the aj army is getting in. he did like a 20 minute keiser "bitcoin! bitcoin! bitcoin!" rant.

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Originally Posted by madfranks

This really is something else. All economic indicators point to this being classic bubble activity, but nothing like bitcoins has ever been on the market before. There is no historical trend to base prices off of, and no real floor has ever been established for them. Bitcoins have been breaking new grounds through unknown territory ever since their inception.

That being said, human nature doesn't change, but the internet allows price discovery and market changes to occur much faster than before. This mania could push bitcoins phenominally high and the crash could be devastating, all in a matter of a few weeks.

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Yeah, but even if bitcoins crashed/settled at 10 cents apiece, they would still have made about a 10,000% gain since inception!

The biggest way I see the bitcoin price collapsing is if crypto-currencies are specifically outlawed.

Yeah I heard that segment also and if anything it made me more suspicious. Remember Max and his silver to $100 campaign how it was going to break the bankers. Well we know how that turned out. Listening to max hype bitcoin for 20 minutes just made me think of a pump and dump scheme.

There might be another devious angle going on. If this thing financially destroys enough people after it crashes, the G men might decide to
outlaw the online exchanges in some fashion or another... perhaps to highlight and criminalize any crypto-anarchist
alternative currency movement entirely. Except of course, their own "properly regulated" digital currency.

Thoughts?

The defining line between fiction and reality is shrinking every day, but losing all your money on a gamble is still very real.
Be careful out there in cyber land. It's not all fun and games.

5GB downloaded just for wallet and not done. I can see this limiting a few people.

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Originally Posted by Cebu_4_2

5GB downloaded just for wallet and not done. I can see this limiting a few people.

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If you are willing to trust a third party with your bitcoins, you can get a free wallet at https://blockchain.info/wallet/

You can send and receive bitcoins instantly without downloading anything.

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Originally Posted by chad

max keiser was on aj the other doing a big rant about bit coin and how it was going to save the world. i have to wonder if the aj army is getting in. he did like a 20 minute keiser "bitcoin! bitcoin! bitcoin!" rant.

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What's next? Jim Kramer doing shitcoins on bad money? And then when it crashes the next day Benjamin Fulford does a piece on how Ninja's stabbing the trading servers in the dick, directed by the old oriental aristocratic warlords being pissed off from not having been compensated for their $100 trillion in gold they lent out to Roosevelt during WWII...

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Originally Posted by sirgonzo420

If you are willing to trust a third party with your bitcoins,

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Ahem... I think not.
5.3GB and 11K blocks to go. I'll back it all up on other drives so I don/t have to do this again.
I now need to figure out how to acquire some bitcoins.

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Originally Posted by Cebu_4_2

I now need to figure out how to acquire some bitcoins.

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You can buy them on an exchange, which means setting up an account, funding it with USD and then trading. OR the easiest way is to buy one on ebay, then it'll just get delivered to your wallet. But be prepared to pay a premium for ebay.

Example: http://www.ebay.com/itm/One-1-Bitcoi...item1e78952560

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Originally Posted by Cebu_4_2

Ahem... I think not.
5.3GB and 11K blocks to go. I'll back it all up on other drives so I don/t have to do this again.
I now need to figure out how to acquire some bitcoins.

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Getting your wallet at this stage in the block chain takes a long time. You can setup an account at https://mtgox.com and you'll also need a dwolla.com account to move funds in and out of your mtgox account. Dwolla is like paypal, only they charge less. :)