Should I buy now, or when it hits $5?
I think the whole shortage story is bullshit now. Why are there no shortages $21.50?!
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Should I buy now, or when it hits $5?
I think the whole shortage story is bullshit now. Why are there no shortages $21.50?!
in 4 minutes, Bernanke will have spoken.Quote:
Originally Posted by Shami-Amourae
normally he speaks part-hawk, part-dove on monetary policy.
it's true that the market manipulation benefits insiders and screws investors.
it may be that the only way to test the scam is to try to buy, for example, 1 million ounces.
for that you will need a winning lottery ticket for about $50 million. after taxes, $24 million, maybe.
i would be very interested to see the reaction to the market of such aggressive buying.
if one person cleared out Provident, Gainesville, APMex, and Tulving of all 1, 10, kilo, and 100 ounce silver bars - what would happen ?
because the market is so manipulated, the acquisition of a large chunk of physical may be the only way to test the market, specifically regarding alleged shortages. e.g. how the silver ads on the radio talk about Apple running into silver shortages, using that as part of the silver sales spiel.
those ads don't have much effect on me. i would never buy from the radio advertiser.
Gold Trader: “Wall Street’s Gold Put Options Paid Off Handsomely Before The June Expiration.”
June 23, 2013 | By Tekoa Da Silva
Following continued selling pressure and another major downward thrust in the price of gold last week, recent interview guest Gary Savage, shared some powerful commentary in a note to subscribers over the weekend.
Speaking on Thursday’s smash of the gold price, Gary noted that;
“About a month ago I vaguely remember something coming across my email…about a huge position in June GDX & GLD put options. Now I see why gold was held below $1400, and what was driving the completely irrational $75 drop in the pre-market Thursday morning. Wall Street was making sure their put options paid off handsomely before the June [21st] expiration.
(click to enlarge)In my opinion the precious metals sector was originally manipulated to move physical metal from west to east. However, Wall Street saw an opportunity to capitalize on that original manipulation and make some fast money over the last several months by exacerbating the short side manipulation.
The question now is will the manipulation continue indefinitely? And I think the answer is no. For the simple reason that at some point the upside potential becomes enormous and Wall Street will make a lot more money by letting the secular trend resume, [rather] than…trying to force the market [down further].
I think Wall Street has generated about as much profit as they are going to get on the short side, and are…ready to flip to the long side. Once we get the manipulators off our back and Wall Street in our corner, I expect we will see 100% or [larger] gains out of the miners and silver in the first three or four months.”
——
Thanks,
Tekoa Da Silva
Bull Market Thinking
http://bullmarketthinking.com/gold-t...ne-expiration/
What do they care if you can buy physical or not ,this is a paper market,right.
With gold and silver plunging, top Citi analyst Tom Fitzpatrick spoke with King World News about what to expect next, and also sent KWN 2 remarkable charts. Gold has now reached Fitzpatrick’s price objective in the mid-$1,200s, which he called for after gold pierced the key $1,520 area to the downside. What Fitzpatrick had to say about gold and silver will surprise KWN readers, along with the two powerful charts he sent. Eric King: “Tom, remarkably you called the rally high on gold at $1,791 in October of 2012, you then turned bearish on gold and it proceed to come down significantly in price. After gold recently breached the key $1,520 area you called for a target around the mid-$1,200s, and once again, almost like a magnet, gold has made its way to your target zone. What are your thoughts here Tom?”
Fitzpatrick: “Yes, it looks as though this correction may be nearing the end now that the objective we had been targeting has essentially been satisfied. It’s possible that gold may trade a bit lower because of momentum, but certainly we have now achieved the target I gave to you when we broke the double-top on gold.
This also gave us a high-to-low down-move on gold of approximately 34%.... http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...image_22_1.jpg
“We found this interesting because it was virtually identical to the high-to-low down-move that we saw in gold in 2008 (also 34%). While we certainly haven’t seen anything yet to say we are about to head up dramatically, we believe that we may be bottoming here in gold.
We’ve also had a significant move in silver which is virtually identical to what we saw in 2008. The down-move in silver is now at roughly 60%, and, again, that is what the silver market experienced during the 2008 meltdown. This makes us reasonably comfortable that both gold and silver are nearing the end of this corrective phase since they have followed the same path as the 2008 corrections. We are now looking for signs that this is a bottom, despite the weakness, and that we may turn from here.”
Eric King: “As I mentioned earlier, you nailed the top of the counter-trend rally in gold near the $1,800 level in late 2012, after calling the rally off the lows in the $1,500s. Now you have made another nice call with the plunge we have seen here in gold. How did you know we would see another round of weakness in gold?”
Fitzpatrick: “Better to be lucky than brilliant any day of the week. At the end of the day, we originally thought the $1,520 level would hold on gold. But once we broke that support level, it set up a very clear target in the mid $1,200s on gold for us.
Now that we’ve essentially achieved that target, our feeling has always been that a healthy trend gets healthy corrections. This is yet another healthy correction like we saw in 2008. The interesting thing is because of where we’ve come from, if we were to now follow, over the next three years, the move after we put in that 2008 low in gold in terms of magnitude, it actually suggests something in the region of $3,400 to $3,500 for gold (see chart below).
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...d%206%3A25.jpg
As you know, in our bigger picture that has always been our long-term target in terms of where gold may go. So we haven’t deviated from that way of thinking. If anything this just solidifies our view that a host of markets are following the 1966 to 1982 pattern, which means this cycle will ultimately culminate around 2016. So what’s happening here now is actually pushing us into a target for gold that fits nicely with our big picture view of a host of key markets.”
Eric King: “If we’re near the end of this cyclical decline in both gold and silver, Tom, what should we look for going forward?”
Ftizpatrick: “If we are in fact ending it, as I mentioned our focus has been that we will now start the multi-year move on gold to $3,400 to $3,500.
Again, if you look at silver going back to the 2008 correction, we got down to levels below $9, then we saw the silver price multiply by a factor of over 5 times. So assuming this marks a point near the end of the correction in silver, then our bias would be one that would take silver not only to new all-time highs, but we would look for a target as high as $100 for silver (see chart below).
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...r%206%3A25.jpg
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...le_Charts.html
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...peimage_27.png
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...peimage_28.pnghttp://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne..._28_link_0.pnghttp://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne..._28_link_1.png
Sprott: “I just read some data on India. It said that India, last year (in the) first five months, imported 1,900 tons of silver. So far this year they have imported 2,400 tons. Now to understand the significance of this I have to tell you that the amount of tons (of silver) mined (annually) is 25,000.... http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...image_22_1.jpg
“At 2,400 tons in the first five months, you are basically talking at least 5,000 tons (of silver) for the whole year. That would be 20% of the world’s (annual) silver production. And this is not going into industrial uses. This is going into savings (for investment purposes).
And there is only a certain percent of the silver market which can go into savings because a lot goes into industrial. But here is the ‘piece de resistance,’ they said (India) imported 720 tons in April (annualize 8,000 tons). In May it went to 900 tons, annualized call it 11,000 (tons). We’re going from 1,900 tons (of silver Indians were purchasing) to 11,000 tons, in a 25,000 ton market. That’s impossible. There’s not that amount of silver available for investment.
Here’s what’s interesting about these numbers, Eric: As they (Indians) can’t buy gold, they are going to buy silver. If you tell the Indian population they can’t buy gold, they want to buy something real. They don’t want fiat paper. They are going to buy silver. And maybe in June or July, which we don’t have data on, when the restrictions and costs have shot up here (in India to buy gold), maybe they will buy even more (silver).
(Another example) It’s impossible for China to replace, if they imported over 800 tons of gold last year, and let’s say you couldn’t really buy it, the number they would have to buy is something like 48,000 tons of silver to replace that (gold equivalent). We only mine 25,000 tons a year, and there’s only 10,000 tons of that available for investment. And it looks to me like they (India and China) are buying it all right now.
So I think if this data is true we have the most phenomenal story for silver that you could possibly imagine. We will just nail those paper sellers to the wall here.”
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...er_Shorts.html
so i wonder if $18.18 was the low.
i can't imagine the Cartel just giving up.
Silver finally sees the good flush in the Weeky timeframe, possible bottom being marked.
-- Posted Sunday, 30 June 2013 | | 1 Comment
By Scott Pluschau
The Exchange Traded Fund for Silver symbol SLV, had the "Measured Rule" target of a large "Rectangle" pattern fulfilled this week in the Weely timeframe. Pricing patterns, or Support and Resistance levels in the Weekly timeframe are the strongest from a chart perspective in my experience. There is also a potential reversal pattern developing now as well. First the measured rule takes the distance from the top to the bottom of a given pattern and adds that onto the breakdown point. Quite often the supply ends here in a bearish pattern as the weak handed longs have finally been flushed out by this point.
The Rectangle is similar to a "Balance Area" using Auction Market Principles. The rectangle or balance area is a horizontal phase of development, or a picture of value among market participants in a given degree of timeframe. Value is a market that is two sided, or balanced between supply and demand. When the lower extreme of the balance area is no longer seen as an unfair low price to do business, market participants can make the initiative move to sell, and that is when you go from a phase of horizontal development to vertical development, or a market that is "seeking value". Vertical development is one sided price action or a market dominated by either supply or demand.
This week saw a Bullish "Hammer" reversal candlestick in Japanese Candlestick Analysis with increasing volume. This candlestick represents downside price rejection and increasing demand. With follow through next week to the upside with another week of increasing volume and bullish price action, this would increase the probabilities for a change in trend in the big picture.
There has not been much to be excited about for the Bulls in quite some time in the precious metals, but their spirits should start to lift is there is confirmation of the Hammer next week.
(Click on chart to expand)
http://67.19.64.18/news/2013/6-30sp/1.png
Join me on Twitter or Stocktwits or Linked In @ Scott Pluschau
http://scottpluschau.blogspot.com/
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1372604714.php
From his blogg above 5 days earlier
Tuesday, June 25, 2013
In Gold, the drop from 1400 to 1300 was quick, and mostly in the overnight hours, so I do not see strong resistance above 1300 if bullish price action and volume begins to pick up after a reversal pattern develops. I am eager to day-trade gold above 1300 but for now the path of least resistance is lower and that should always be respected.
I have one eye on Silver, as the potential is there for a squeeze above 20.00. The measured rule of some Bearish patterns in Silver is around 17.00, and that is where I think the floor is in Silver so a further drop cannot be ruled out for now prior to a reversal pattern developing.
So much is dependent on the "Risk Off" environment in US Equities, but with further weakness in the S&P 500, the "Diamonds in the rough" will be those assets that show "Relative Strength".
heck of a heck of a heck of a bargain at $17.Quote:
Originally Posted by Serpo
heck of a heck of a bargain at $20.
heck of a bargain at $23.
a bargain @ $26 !!! :)