Don't be a tease Serpo. Tell us some more! At the risk of appearing obtuse, what does it mean?Quote:
Originally Posted by Serpo
Printable View
Don't be a tease Serpo. Tell us some more! At the risk of appearing obtuse, what does it mean?Quote:
Originally Posted by Serpo
Ted Butler: Blockbuster in Gold as JP Morgan Likely Acquired 10 M oz of Gold Liquidated by GLD
May 22, 2013 By The Doc 4 Comments
http://silverdoctors.com/wp-content/...el-300x199.png
One of the key considerations in gold has been the redemption of more than 10 million ounces (over $15 billion) since year end from the world’s largest gold Exchange Traded Fund, GLD. I believe that the big buyer of the 10 million ounces of gold liquidated in the GLD was JPMorgan, either alone or with other collusive commercial banks.
I’m not suggesting that JPMorgan did anything wrong by intentionally evading SEC reporting requirements. That potential infraction pales in comparison to the real crime. In this crime (actually more egregious in silver than in gold) the crooked bank manipulated gold prices lower, via the usual COMEX price-fixing mechanics, to induce GLD shareholders to sell. This was a planned and executed operation that left no stone unturned.
It appears to me that JPMorgan and their ilk have bought absolutely massive quantities of gold and silver in many different markets. Unfortunately, much of that buying has come as a result of the deliberate and successful manipulation of price in order to force others to sell. I don’t believe that is fair or even legal. Nevertheless the bloodless verdict of the market suggests we are going a lot higher at some point soon.
This has been one of the worst stretches for gold and silver price-wise in quite some time, no secret there. I have to go back to when silver was in single digits to find a comparable period. The question on precious metals investors’ minds is whether this bad stretch is going to continue much longer. Are the past few months setting the stage for a pronounced rebound in prices or has the tide changed for the worse for an extended period of time? I think the answer can be found in analyzing the following facts:
One of the key considerations in gold has been the redemption of more than 10 million ounces (over $15 billion) since year end from the world’s largest gold Exchange Traded Fund, GLD. That is a major amount of gold and represents around 25% of the entire holdings in GLD (at year end). The gold ETF holds the largest privately held stockpiles of the metal. Consequently it has a pronounced influence on gold prices.
It is widely reported that the 10 million ounces of gold that came out of the GLD have been bought by India or China, even though substantiating data is lacking. Let’s only consider the facts that we know. The 10 million gold ounces that came out of the GLD equals roughly 100 million shares of GLD (one-tenth ounce per share). The 10 million ounces that are no longer in the GLD still exist and, therefore, must be owned by someone. We know that the reason the shares were liquidated in GLD was due to the rotten price performance that weighs on metals investors’ minds. This tends to eliminate China as the big buyer; as such buying would cause gold prices to rise, not fall. The shares were sold and metal redeemed because the price went down, largely a self-reinforcing spiral. We know how much was sold and who the sellers were. What we don’t know is the identity of the buyers. There is a good reason for that. The buyers have tried mightily to hide their identity.
I believe that the big buyer of the 10 million ounces of gold liquidated in the GLD was JPMorgan, either alone or with other collusive commercial banks. The same methodology I’ve previously attributed to a potential Mr. Big in SLV (also probably JPMorgan) is at work in GLD. If one (or 2 or 3) big buyers in GLD had merely purchased the 100 million shares that were sold in GLD, that would have quickly pushed the big buyer(s) over the 5% SEC reporting threshold thereby revealing their identity. But by having the gold redeemed out of the trust and the metal being purchased (instead of shares), stock reporting requirements are evaded. A single holder, perhaps working with a few collusive partners, have come to own what is, effectively, almost a quarter of the world’s largest gold stockpile and no one is the wiser.
I’m not suggesting that JPMorgan did anything wrong by intentionally evading SEC reporting requirements. That potential infraction pales in comparison to the real crime. In this crime (actually more egregious in silver than in gold) the crooked bank manipulated gold prices lower, via the usual COMEX price-fixing mechanics, to induce GLD shareholders to sell. This was a planned and executed operation that left no stone unturned.
From late November, the commercials as a whole, bought more than 160,000 net COMEX gold contracts on declining prices, the equivalent of 16 million ounces. When you include what came out of the ETFs and exchange warehouses it adds an additional 15 million ounces. Together that totals 30 million ounces ($45 billion). Options and over-the-counter derivatives transactions could double that amount. This likely brings the total of their purchases to 50 million ounces ($75 billion). This sound like a huge number but it’s quite manageable for these big banks and it represents a small fraction of the total derivatives market. The scope of their purchases is enormous and the bullish implications are staggering.
I believe that JPMorgan and the commercials have come to hate the COT and Bank Participation reporting data because it reveals what they are up to in exquisite detail. Wrong doers prefer to operate in the dark, under rocks. But the one thing the available data shows is that the big buyers on the wicked price decline have been the commercials. On the one hand, I find it deplorable that big banks are allowed to manipulate our markets for their own benefit, making a mockery of our laws and corrupting our regulators. On the other hand, watching JPMorgan and the commercials buy so aggressively in gold and silver only leads to the conclusion that these crooks have a plan for much higher metals prices to come. If, as I contend, JPMorgan picked up at least 20 million gold ounces they shook out from the GLD and elsewhere, a $300 dollar gold rally will net them $6 billion in ill-gotten gains on that position alone. It could be much more if they are more ruthless in creating higher prices. Generally, with these crooks they usually exceed what you think they are capable of.
It appears to me that JPMorgan and their ilk have bought absolutely massive quantities of gold and silver in many different markets. Unfortunately, much of that buying has come as a result of the deliberate and successful manipulation of price in order to force others to sell. I don’t believe that is fair or even legal. Nevertheless the bloodless verdict of the market suggests we are going a lot higher at some point soon.
For subscription information, see www.butlerresearch.com
Gold Cycle Bottoming Soon - 28 May 2013 This cycles specialist can't say why, but he does believe a cyclical low in gold is near...
DAVID GURWITZ is managing director of Charles Nenner Research. Providing global macro research to a broad class of clients across the world, and increasingly to family offices, over the last decade, Gurwitz specialized in cycles analysis, looking for patterns in where prices turn.
Here Gurwitz speaks to Hard Assets Investor about his analysis of financial cycles, plus the outlook for gold in particular.
Hard Assets Investor: You guys made a terrific call in gold a couple of years ago when your research, and the algorithms that you used, called the top at $1900. So I'm very curious to hear what you have to say about gold now, as well as some of these other markets.
David Gurwitz: First let me tell you how it works. Gold happens to be a specific category that fits in with everything else.
Cycles come from the Greek word "circle". And what we do is we take any data series and find basically repeating top-to-tops. I'll give you an example. In baseball, to hit for the cycle, you have to have a single, double, triple and homer. People think of the nine-year cycle.
If you find a top in gold every five weeks – forget the price – a top every nine weeks, top every 14, top every 37, you have, in effect, a lot of sine curves. When they're all topping, we don't know why. We don't know why things happen. When they're all topping, we just assume that's a top. And they were all topping at $1900.
HAI: You probably know there's a book, Fooled by Randomness. Sometimes we can look at things, and they kind of look like there are discernible patterns there, when in fact what it really is, is randomness. But we perceive it as some sort of regularity. Can you be fooled by this phenomenon? Because if we knew precisely that cycles occur at a specific moment, somebody who knew that would own the world in a month. It would be so easy to make money.
David Gurwitz: Right. There's another book, called Chaos, which basically says there's not randomness, that in fact it is predictable. There's patterns within chaos; it's the other side. Let me tell you what Einstein says about relativity: "When a man sits at a radiator for a minute, it feels like an hour. When a man sits with a woman for an hour, it feels like a minute." That's relativity.
HAI: Well, we're getting too deep for this show...
David Gurwitz: So anyway, we don't believe it's random. We don't agree with that premise, so therefore we believe that you can find patterns. And we call the top an apple. Natural gas – what came first, the cycle top or what I'm about to tell you?
The banks in Canada lent money to the nat gas producers when that gas was $6 not long ago. We had said that nat gas was going to a $1.70 after $5, $4.50, $4. All of a sudden those loans – like a lot of people's houses, with the mortgages under water – bank loans are under water too to companies. They started pressuring the nat gas companies to sell to pay back the loans. They started selling, price goes to $3, $2.10. It got to $1.90.
What came first, the cycle top or the actions to the banks? We think the new shows all say banks forcing producers to sell. We think it was the cycle top that said it. There's a cycle bottom coming in gold very shortly. We've had seven up years with gold.
HAI: But it doesn't necessarily tell you the price or the proximity of the price. It just tells you, here's a time window where we're going to hit a bottom.
David Gurwitz: We also do price too. Take football. You know the quarterback goes 1-2-3-4 and he throws. Same with us. Cycles just give you direction. Target algorithm, which is based on rocket science, believe it or not, and quantum physics...it does get very deep, gives you level. And so we look for timing, level and direction. And when they don't all line up, we will stay out, which is something most people have a hard time doing. So they're in pain staying in the gold trade. Now as you probably know, a lot of people are sitting now crying...and they're probably going to sell.
HAI: Not if they're short.
David Gurwitz: Not if they're short, which is also mostly not so easy to do. When the gold price gets to the bottom – which we think is coming relatively soon – they're going to sell out and we think there's going to be a great opportunity.
HAI: And what price would that be?
David Gurwitz: High $1300s is what we're looking at.
HAI: So the recent sell-off that brought us into the mid-to-low $1300s, it was like a capitulation.
David Gurwitz: Almost. We'll retest that level probably, because we want everything to line up. The cycle, the target and the other things we look at. Also there's a triple top forming in the Euro right now. Again, I won't go through the details. This is the stuff we do. We're a little technical, but we think the technicals are in fact fundamental.
HAI: We've had this rally in gold now for basically 10, 11 years since 2001. I guess you're saying it's coming near the end of this correction. It would suggest from what you're saying we're in the next leg of this long-term bull market?
David Gurwitz: Yes. But you can't extrapolate from that our macro view of commodities in general. Everything's different. Gold is going to go up, based on our cycles, based on our forecasts. Silver same, but copper is down. We got out of copper six, eight months ago. We have a lot of sovereign wealth fund clients. They don't want to trade next week, next month. They want to know four years from now. So copper's down, which indicates something about not such a great economy.
Nat gas, which went from $6 to close to $1.70, is now in the low $4 range, and very shortly we think we're going to short it again back to its low. But grains we think are bottoming in several months. And there's going to be a rally.
People say stocks and bonds always go in opposite directions. If you bought stocks and bonds in 1981, it was both a great trade. They both went up. If you bought them both in 2000, bonds have done well, but stocks are flat from 2000. If you bought them from 2007, bonds have done well, but stocks haven't. So you can't just say A implies B.
HAI: Let's talk about equities – the Dow making a new historic high, the S&P at a new historic high. But a lot of people are saying this doesn't add up. Because the economy is not that strong. We still have high unemployment.
David Gurwitz: Long term, we see stocks going down for the next seven years over 60%.
HAI: Based on what?
David Gurwitz: Cycles. That's all we know.
HAI: Well, how did it work in 2007/2008...?
David Gurwitz: We took everyone out in the summer of 2008.
HAI: That was right before the Lehman crisis.
David Gurwitz: Right before. We don't know what's going to be the cause. The reason shows up afterwards, after the cycle is set.
HAI: So you really didn't get the top in that one.
David Gurwitz: We got out. Prior, when the Dow went from 1008 to 1405, we called that on CNBC; it's on our site. We went back in and got out in the summer of 2008. It was not a front end of 2008, as you can remember. We went long the beginning of 2009, more or less until now.
HAI: Again, based on the cycle?
David Gurwitz: Only based on the cycle; we admit we don't know anything else. How often do people come on and say we don't know? We're brutally honest. So stocks are topping. They're going to go straight down.
HAI: Is there a signal, a sell point?
David Gurwitz: Yes. People should go right to our site and get the research, because the answer is, we're monitoring it and we're very close to a top now. It's also been a top in 2000/2007/2013. Now it's much weaker than it was in 2000.
HAI: Now, many people for so long have been saying it's a bubble, yet bonds have been very, very strong.
David Gurwitz: There was a high 30 years ago in rates. Sixty years ago it was low. The US government was actually selling, as opposed to buying, savings bonds 2.5 percent in 1950. In 1920 rates were high, 1918/19 rates were low, 1860 the Civil War rates were high. So the next 30 years, you're going to see increasing rates.
Starting this summer, there's going to be one more rally. Same thing: cycles. So bonds are going to be a great short for the next two decades starting this summer.
HAI: I don't know about that one. But very interesting stuff. David Gurwitz, thank you very much.
Hard Assets Investor, 28 May '13
Hardassetsinvestor.com is a research-oriented website devoted to sharing ideas about investing in the natural resources sector. Published by Van Eck Associates Corporation, the site offers an educational resource for both individual and institutional investors interested in learning more about commodity equities, commodity futures, and gold – the three major components of the hard assets marketplace.
That JPM would be trying to buy silver through bullion dealers and anyone they have sold too , basically and this guy is in Australia.Quote:
Originally Posted by mamboni
From Richard Russell at KWN
Dear Russell,
Yesterday, after reading your comments about gold being manipulated in the crudest way, I went to a bank in Singapore to see what, if any, gold activity there was. The bank had arranged a rope line (new) to handle the volume of people, at which I waited 45 minutes in a queue to approach the “Gold Window.” Once at the window, your order would be taken and then you would be directed to what amounted to several rows of chairs to await your order to be filled.
All of this was new since my last visit about a year ago.As you can see from the photograph, 100 gram and 50 gram bars were sold out. The only things available were a few one ounce coins, but plenty of kilo bars.
We saw several people bringing in suite cases with roller wheels. I asked what that was for, the reply was their orders were too heavy to carry by hand. I asked if this was normal, the answer was yes. The whole situation was interesting to watch.So maybe the money managers are selling paper gold, but individual investors are buying physical gold with both hands in Singapore.
Best Regards,Stephen J.
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...I%205%3A28.jpg