Re: Silver Phase II Bull Market
By Adrian Douglas
On September 21, 2010 I published an article entitled “More Forensic Evidence of Gold & Silver Price Manipulation”. In that article I showed how silver from 2003 to 2010 had never traded freely at all; I showed that silver was algorithmically traded with gold and there was a very clear relationship between the price of gold and the price of silver. For those who haven’t read the previous article the following figure 1 (figure 4 in the previous article) demonstrates the inter-relationship.
Figure 1 Cross-plot of Silver versus Gold 2003-2010
Figure 1 is a cross-plot of the price of gold against the price of silver for every trading day from June 2003 to September 2010. There are two linear relationships, one is pre-2008 (black line) and the second is post 2008 (green line). The best fit equations for the two data sets are also given on the chart.
The stunning revelation from the data analysis was that if on any day I knew what the price of gold was I would be able to calculate the silver price from the equation of the relationship! How is that possible in a free market? It simply is not possible and so the conclusion is that silver is not in a free market but is manipulated to move algorithmically with the price of gold. I have written many articles that show that gold is itself manipulated and suppressed (for example, see Gold Market is not “Fixed”, it’s Rigged)
I have updated the chart of Figure 1 which is shown in Figure 2.
Figure 2 Cross-plot of Silver versus Gold 2003-2011
Since September 2010 silver has broken its golden shackles. The algorithmic trading that kept the price of silver subdued for seven years has been completely annihilated.
On Friday silver closed in complete backwardation on the Comex. Spot silver closed at $29.075/oz while FEB 2011 closed at $29.064/oz and DEC 2015 closed at $29.026/oz. I believe this is the first time in history that this has happened. Silver traded in backwardation between the spot price and futures contract up to one year out during the blatantly manipulative precious metals bashing of January, but now the entire futures structure is in backwardation. This is a sure sign there are shortages of silver because it means that buyers will pay a premium for silver delivered sooner rather than later.
Signs of shortages have also been apparent from a shrinking silver inventory on the Comex in the face of rising prices. The registered inventory stands at a paltry 43 Mozs. In addition there is lots of anecdotal evidence that there are tight supplies everywhere. There are reports of refineries refusing to take new orders due to insufficient silver feedstock.
News out of China recently showed that China's net imports of silver quadrupled in 2010 to 3,500 tonnes (112 Million ozs). China has traditionally been a silver exporter. For example, in 2005 China made net exports of 3,000 tonnes of silver.
The US mint reported last week a record month in silver eagle sales in January of 6.4 million ozs.
This update of my previous work adds more fuel to the fire that the dynamics of the silver market have dramatically changed. Because silver has been suppressed for so long we do not know what its free market price should be, but we are going to find out soon and I strongly suspect it will be many multiples of the current price.
Adrian Douglas
Editor of Market Force Analysis
Board Member of GATA
February 5, 2011
www.marketforceanalysis.com
Re: Silver Phase II Bull Market
Serpro
I need to bump your last post from Adrian Douglas.
This is significant.
Thanks
Re: Silver Phase II Bull Market
Re: Silver Phase II Bull Market
At the peak of the last precious metal bull market in January 1980, it took 17.4 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold. Thereafter, the ratio turned and started climbing higher. By February 1991, 101.8 ounces of silver were needed to exchange for one ounce of gold. Silver was trading at only $3.50 per ounce, down 93% from its previous bull market peak.
Silver back then was “dirt cheap”, but it would not get any cheaper. Silver turned the corner as value oriented buyers recognized a bargain. Since then the price of silver has been generally rising, and has been doing so faster than the spectacular rise in the price of gold. The result is a long-term downtrend in gold/silver ratio. In other words, since 1991, silver has outperformed gold.
Last week, the ratio touched 45.0 and ended Friday at 45.3. It was the lowest daily and weekly close for the ratio since February 1998, which is a significant date. That is the month Warren Buffett announced that he had acquired 130 million ounces of silver. His footprint is visible on the above chart.
We know from his disclosures that he began buying silver around $4 in July 1997. The ratio then was in the mid-70s. But note what happened to the ratio as Buffett accumulated his hoard over the next several months, culminating with the announcement of his purchase. The gold/silver ratio fell by nearly 50%, so that only 41.3 ounces of silver were needed to buy one ounce of gold. Silver was clearly outperforming gold, just like it has been doing over the last several months – as shown in the above chart by the remarkable drop in the ratio.
The ratio has now reached an important point. It is breaking through support, which is illustrated by the lower red line on the above chart.
Several previous attempts to break through support have failed, with the result that for many years the ratio has continued marking time within a trading range bounded by the parallel red lines. That trading range now looks mature and ‘ripe for picking’.
One never knows of course how the markets will unfold in the future. But I expect that the ratio will finally break through support, which is an event that I have been looking and waiting for patiently over many years.
If I am right and the ratio knifes through the low 40s and below the Buffett point, there is no clear short-term target. Given the momentum evident in the above chart and the bullish fundamental factors impacting silver at present – like its unprecedented backwardation – a drop to at least the low 30s seems highly likely, but I don’t rule out the possibility of the ratio falling even lower.
My long-term target for the ratio is 17. It is approximately the average level at which the two precious metals were exchanged for hundreds of years prior to the arrival of fiat currencies in 1971. It has been my view that a 17-to-1 ratio is attainable by 2013-2015, but given what seems to be shaping up, we probably won’t need to wait that long.
The unprecedented backwardation in silver has one clear signal. The potential for a massive short squeeze is building. If one occurs – as I believe is becoming increasingly likely – there is no telling how quickly a 17-to-1 ratio could be achieved.
http://www.fgmr.com/watch-the-gold-silver-ratio.html
Re: Silver Phase II Bull Market
Re: Silver Still Phase I ,Phase 2 when plus 50$(old high)
From its $50 high in January 1980 to its $3.50 low in February 1991, the weak hands were shaken out. At that point, the accumulation by strong hands – who were buying because the recognized that silver was an exceptional bargain – became the dominant force. Their buying power was stronger than the selling pressure of the weak hands, and the price of silver responded by starting to climb. It was classic stage one action, but here’s the important point.
Silver is still in stage one. It won’t advance into stage two until $50 is exceeded, just like gold did not enter stage two until its previous high of $850 was hurdled.
I expect that silver will exceed $50 this year, which is a point of view I first mentioned in my outlook for 2010.
Admittedly, I was a little early with my forecast about when gold would enter stage two. So perhaps I will again be early by forecasting that silver will enter stage two of its bull market this year. Regardless of the accuracy of my timing, one thing is clear. Because it is still in stage one, silver remains good value.
http://www.fgmr.com/silver-approachi...ll-market.html
Re: Silver Still Phase I ,Phase 2 when plus 50$(old high)
IMO...the only way we're going to hit a 17:1 ratio is if PM's are priced to the moon. Over $200/oz of silver.
Re: Silver Still Phase I ,Phase 2 when plus 50$(old high)
There have been numerous reports of bullion shortages in many parts around the world, along with rising premiums. And the two explanations – we’re running out of gold! and, it’s just a manufacturing bottleneck – are at odds with one another. So, who’s right?
First, the data. The following has been reported since New Year’s eve horn-blowers were put away:
Report from China: “…premiums for gold bars jumped to their highest level in two years.”
A director at Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong: "I don't have any gold. Premiums are very high. Some say they have no stocks on hand."
A dealer in Singapore: "There's a sudden surge in demand. Demand from China is very strong and they are paying very high premiums. Refiners can't meet the demand.”
World Gold Council report: “…gold imports by India likely reached a record last year due to increased investment demand. Imports will probably be the highest for India in its history.”
Nigel Moffatt, treasurer of the Perth Mint: “…demand for gold bullion has been unrelenting since gold dropped below $1,400 an ounce. At the moment demand is such that we cannot meet all the enquiries we are getting. Demand for our coins and medallions is strong, but the biggest demand is coming from banks and traders looking for kilo bars.”
Eric Sprott, chief investment officer of Sprott Asset Management, after having difficulty locating enough bullion for their new silver fund: "Frankly, we are concerned about the illiquidity in the physical silver market. We believe the delays involved in the delivery of physical silver to the Trust highlight the disconnect that exists between the paper and physical markets for silver."
2010 gold Buffalo coins are largely unavailable from dealers.
Sales of silver Eagles set a new record in January – by the 19th of the month. Already, 4.6 million coins have been sold, an all-time monthly high since the coin's release in 1986.
Based on this data alone, you might come to the conclusion that yes, we’re running low on bullion supply. But most industry execs I spoke to insist this is a “bottleneck” issue: current demand is greater than current stock on hand, or is coming in faster than mints can produce. In other words, it’s a fabrication issue, not a supply deficit. A Treasury rep said as much.
You’ll recall from 2008 how supply was difficult to come by and premiums were roughly double what they are now. Some think it will be “lesson learned” this time around; mints now know how to prepare for another spike in demand. Many have added workers, shifts, and facilities. The U.S. Mint stopped producing the less popular coins and now focuses on those that are most in demand.
To a large extent, I believe the bottleneck argument is exactly what’s happening. It’s no different than the store that sells old-fashioned wooden rocking chairs suddenly getting swamped with customers when an antique dealer declares they’ll be valuable collectibles in the future. Collectors rush to buy, and the store doesn’t have enough rocking chairs in its warehouse. But they’re not running out of wood. And they’ll likely be better prepared when they hear the dealer is coming out with a book.
It’s true there’s only so much gold coming to market every year (total 2010 supply is estimated to have been about 115 million ounces), but in the big picture, there’s been enough. It’s also true that orders from the 2008 rush were eventually filled. However, I think the “bottleneck” and “we’re running out” arguments miss the point, because they both focus on supply.
Demand is what I’m concerned about. Now try this data:
According to International Strategy and Investment Group, gold ownership currently represents 0.6% of total financial assets. If it rose to just 1.2% – still less than half its 1980 level – it would require an additional 917.1 million ounces, or 16% of aggregate gold worldwide. This amount is equal to about 10 years of current global production.
Investment demand represented 53% of all gold demand in 1979; today, it represents just 32%. Coin demand represented 37% of all demand in 1979; today it’s less than 14%.
Gold and gold mining stocks represented 26% of all global assets in 1981 (high inflation), and 20% in 1932 (high deflation). Today, gold and gold mining shares represent about 1% of global assets.
The market cap of the entire gold industry is about the size of Microsoft, is less than Exxon Mobil, and is 10 times smaller than the banking industry. The whole of the silver industry is smaller than Starbucks.
Silver mine production is insufficient to meet current demand. The only way silver needs are fulfilled is from scrap coming to market. Miners don’t produce enough on their own.
There are approximately 40% more earthlings right now than there are ounces of gold that have ever been mined. That includes every ounce used in jewelry, electronics, and dental. Further, if every ounce of supply last year were made into coins and bars for investment purchase, it would amount to less than two one-hundredths of an ounce, or about half a gram, for every man, woman, and child on earth. This means 0.018% of the global population – about one in every 55 people – could buy a one-ounce gold coin this year.
Yes, there is a bottleneck. But with this recent spike in demand, it appears some mints still aren’t equipped to keep up. Are we nearing a tipping point where in spite of the increased efficiency and preparedness, requests from buyers will outweigh available supply? Imagine demand continuing to accelerate, and you can see where this might be headed. I think this is the side of the equation to watch.
Andy Schectman of bullion dealer Miles Franklin told me last summer that, “Based on what I know, it’s my opinion that if 5% of this country put 5% of their money into gold, there would be nothing left tomorrow morning.” In other words, even if supply is sufficient at present, what happens if demand, say, doubles, as the above data show is possible?
Right now in North America you can still get bullion, but we’re clearly on a path where demand could overwhelm the system, making purchases very difficult. When that point arrives, many investors will wish they hadn’t worried so much about price.
Imagine Doug Casey is right about the future value of the dollar: zero. Imagine how high inflation would rocket in such a scenario.
Bottleneck, meet desperation.
[The Chinese and other governments are gobbling up gold as fast as they can, adding vast amounts to their already large holdings. Because they know something many mainstream investors don’t: the U.S. dollar is on its last leg. To find out how to protect yourself – and to profit – watch this free video.]
-- Posted Friday, 18 February 2011
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1298012940.php
Re: Silver Still Phase I ,Phase 2 when plus 50$(old high)
Quote:
Originally Posted by undgrd
IMO...the only way we're going to hit a 17:1 ratio is if PM's are priced to the moon. Over $200/oz of silver.
As opposed to being priced under the moon..........haha
Re: Silver Still Phase I ,Phase 2 when plus 50$(old high)
This ratio chart from earlier post....
Silver now below 45 mark at this exact time around 43.5 ratio.
Now (next day ) ratio is 42.8
