Re: Is Silver Entering Phase II Bull Market?
Re: Is Silver Entering Phase II Bull Market?
A Lesson From the Greek Crisis: Safe Deposit Boxes Are Not Safe
http://thenewsdoctors.com/wp-content...4240682853.jpgTND Guest Contributor: Paul-Martin Foss |
The following article by Carl Menger Center Board Member Prof. Joseph Salerno originally appeared on the website of the Ludwig von Mises Institute. After numerous news reportshave highlighted how many Greeks sought safety in gold purchases, we can only hope that they take Prof. Salerno’s warning to heart and keep their gold safe from confiscation.
A Lesson From the Greek Crisis: Safe Deposit Boxes Are Not Safe
By Joseph T. Salerno
Last week the Greek government imposed capital controls to prevent cash from escaping from the Greek banking system, which is on the brink of collapse. These repressive financial measures, which were invented by “Hitler’s banker” Hjalmar Schacht in the 1930s, include the closing of banks, limiting cash withdrawals from ATMs to 60 euros ($67) per day, and the banning of all money transfers via credit and debit cards to accounts held in foreign countries. Despite these Draconian controls, Greek banks continue to hemorrhage cash and, after yesterday’s referendum, it is probable that the daily limit on withdrawals from ATMs will be tightened. Worse yet, the reeling Greek public suffered another shock yesterday when Deputy Finance Minister Nadia Valavani revealed to Greek television that the government and banks had already agreed that people would also not be allowed to withdraw cash from safe deposit boxes for as long as the controls were in place. This may be part of a fallback plan if the ECB ends its bailout of the Greek banks. The government with the banks’ connivance would seize the cash euros stored in these boxes and compensate their lessees by crediting an equal sum of euros to their increasingly inaccessible checking deposits. The cash would then be fed into ATMs to postpone the day of reckoning for Greece’s zombie fractional-reserve banks.
In the meantime, the market has been working to provide a private, nonbank alternative for Greeks to safely store cash. In Dublin, Ireland enterprising diamond dealer Seamus Fahy, who owns Merrion Vaults, is offering a 15% discount for Greeks who are able to evade the fascist capital controls and smuggle their cash out of the country. As Fahy puts it: “If you lived in Athens, and had 200,000 euros, wouldn’t you try to get it out?” In addition Fahy is considering opening a branch of Merrion Vaults in Athens. He is already advertising his services on Greek-Irish community web sites.
In Greece itself, where business in many sectors has virtually come to a standstill, the sales of home safes are booming. George Moschopoulos, who has been selling safes for 40 years, reports a fivefold increase in his business in the last five years compared to the years before the crisis. Predictably, as Greeks have drained cash from their bank accounts since the financial crisis of 2008, home burglaries have skyrocketed. In 2012, there were almost 88,000 cases of burglary, which was a 76 percent increase from five years earlier. This year an elderly couple was robbed of their entire life savings of 80,000 euros.
Of course these market alternatives for securing cash beyond the reach of corrupt governments, crony banks, and burglars hardly benefit those who have already been locked out by capital controls from withdrawing their property from safe deposits boxes. As the Greek crisis deepens, the contagion threatens to spread to the sovereign debt and the fractional-reserve banking systems of other countries. Faced with such a financial crisis, it is a good bet that no government will hesitate to impose capital controls, up to and including forcibly preventing owners from accessing the contents of their safe deposit boxes.
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About Paul-Martin Foss:
http://thenewsdoctors.com/wp-content...8872661570.jpgPaul-Martin Foss is the founder, President, and Executive Director of the Carl Menger Center for the Study of Money and Banking, an Arlington, VA-based think tank dedicated to educating the American people on the importance of sound money and sound banking.
Prior to founding the Menger Center, Mr. Foss worked in the U.S. House of Representatives for seven years, including six years as Congressman Ron Paul’s legislative assistant for monetary policy and financial services, and one year as Deputy Legislative Director for Congressman Thomas Massie.
As Congressman Paul’s legislative assistant, he assisted the Congressman in his duties as Chairman of the Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy by helping to develop hearing topics, agendas, and briefing Congressmen and their staffs on monetary policy topics. Mr. Foss also was responsible for the management of Dr. Paul’s monetary policy and financial services legislation, including the “Audit the Fed” and “End the Fed” bills, and was co-editor of Ron Paul’s Monetary Policy Anthology, a multi-thousand page compilation of hearing transcripts, lecture transcripts, and other documents related to Dr. Paul’s chairmanship.
Mr. Foss received his Bachelor’s degree from The University of the South (Sewanee), and Master’s degrees from the London School of Economics and Georgetown University’s Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service.
This article appeared on the Carl Menger Center for the Study of Money and Banking and is reprinted with permission, “Creative Commons 4.0.”
http://thenewsdoctors.com/a-lesson-from-the-greek-crisis-safe-deposit-boxes-are-not-safe/
Re: Is Silver Entering Phase II Bull Market?
Re: Is Silver Entering Phase II Bull Market?
CARTEL Manipulation & The Ultimate PHYSICAL Shortage
SGT Report
SGTreport.com
July 12th, 2015
2,314 views
2 Comments
342 8 365
http://www.thedailysheeple.com/wp-co...nipulation.jpg
On July 7th the United States Mint suspended American Silver Eagle sales, again. And this time, sales of the popular PHYSICAL precious metal coin won’t resume until at least mid-August. And as the price of silver remains well below the cost of production for most of the world’s primary silver miners, according to precious metals analyst Andy Hoffman, “We continue to see record worldwide demand and record low inventories.”
In this important interview, Max Porterfield, the CEO and President of Callinex Mines discusses the REALITY of the shortages of PHYSICAL precious AND base metals which is rapidly developing.
Not mincing words, Porterfield freely address the elephant in the room that has been actively contributing to the destruction of the health of the mining sector for years: Wall Street paper manipulation of the precious metals.
Porterfiled says, “You’ve got to ask yourself how is it legal that JP Morgan is solely responsible for 96% of all commodity derivatives, while Citigroup is single-handedly responsible for 70% of ALL precious metals derivatives?”
Meanwhile, last week the bottom fell out of copper pushing the price of that important base metal down to a level not seen in 15 years. The danger with plummeting base metals prices is clear, fewer profitable BASE METAL mining companies will equate to lower overall base metals production, and more shortages. And as it pertains to the already tight PHYSICAL silver market in which most silver is a by-product of base metals mining, we can only expect far less PHYSICAL silver production in a market where demand is already outstripping supply by at least 200 million ounces per year.
As India alone is on track to import 33% of ALL physical silver on earth in 2015 alone, it’s clear that a perfect storm is shaping up… for the ultimate PHYSICAL metals shortage.
Delivered by The Daily Sheeple<em><strong>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mqBmVRryWyU
Re: Is Silver Entering Phase II Bull Market?
http://www.silverdoctors.com/wp-cont...tt-300x170.jpgSprott is scarfing down more physical silver!
Let’s get straight to the great news for precious metals:
WELCOME TO DYSTOPIA #18
TND Exclusive: Eric Dubin
“Doc” is on vacation. That’s why Silver Doctors is running our recording with GATA’s Bill Murphy, recorded Tuesday. Jason Burack and I have your back, however, with the big news for the precious metals industry: PSLV Secondary! We’ll also dive deep into the “Panama Papers,” and you owe it to yourself to read the stories I have linked at the bottom of this article. Seriously. There’s more going on here than what the mainstream media narrative would have people believe. But let’s get to the great news for precious metals.
The Sprott Physical Silver Trust has announced a secondary offering to buy $75 million worth of silver. (link) To be expected, PSLV shares took a sharp dive on Friday, frustrating some. One commenter on The Wall St For Main St YouTube channel noted, “I will double down but this offering killed my return for the year in the PSLV.” The frustration is understandable. I noted:
It’s a little ironic. It’s kind of like taking a bullet for the team. I’m only being half flippant. If past is prologue, PSLV purchases will suck out of the physical market enough silver, at the margin, to eventually send the entire precious metals space higher. In a roundabout way, this secondary could end up meaning that silver would be in the $20s a heck of a lot sooner, for example, and that would benefit you and everyone. The cartel has executed a managed retreat from the depths of hell circa sub-$14 silver, with their new “no mas” line at $16. This secondary is going to make getting through $16 happen, with momentum. The next line in their sand would come at around $18.50 and that would have been hard to get past without a lot of multiple attempts, and the same sort of b.s. we see right now re. $16. We will probably be looking at $18.50+ a heck of a lot sooner, given this secondary. I don’t own any PSLV, but if I did, the 4%+ decline today would bum me out too. Alas, it is what it is. Dilution in the short-term for intermediate-term gains is the way this should work out. We see similar things happen when a smart mining company makes an outstanding purchase. Usually, regardless of how fantastic a deal might be from a strategic point of view, short-term traders usually punish even the intelligent acquisitions.
I’ve asked Sprott about his thought process and what the firm tries to do with these secondaries. I don’t remember which of the interviews this discussion happened, but we talked about it on two Silver Doctors Weekly Metals & Markets Wrap podcasts. I haven’t been watching the PSLV premium over the last month – just been too busy/distracted with other stuff. But I see that it was about 5% yesterday. Today, despite the 4+ percent haircut, PSLV still has a premium over assets of 0.57%.
I know that Sprott has been thinking above 5% – or thereabouts – as the level necessary to launch a secondary. I don’t have inside information, mind you. I just have talked to him enough that I know how he thinks. Take a look at the historical chart of the fund premium over time (chart #2): http://sprottphysicalbullion.com/spr...t-asset-value/
The fund finally had enough of a premium to launch a secondary and get this show on the road. It will be a good thing. Short-term pain for intermediate-term gain. — Eric Dubin
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Precious Metals Outlook:
Precious metals were already firming up this week. The Jr. mining share index, GDXJ, actually turned in an all time high for 2016 trading. Jason and I discuss this as the “tip of the spear” when it comes to sentiment in the precious metals industry. Dave Kranzler’s latest focuses on GDXJ as well, and it’s a funny read: “If The…Dow Went Up 94% In 2 1/2 Months, Maria Bartiromo And Liz Clayman Would Be Doing Naked Cartwheels.” (link)
Going into next week, the Sprott PSLV announcement will send the sector higher still, confounding expectations for a huge and imminent cartel raid. In addition to the near- and intermediate-term outlook that Jason and I discuss, check out the conversation “Doc” and I had with Bill Murphy – click here. I addressed the epic battle in detail in my last podcast write-up as well: BLS BS Triggers “Insane Demand For Silver” – SD Weekly Metals & Markets.
SCUMBAGS:
It wouldn’t be a Welcome To Dystopia without “scumbag nominees.” Maybe we should invite Eric Sprott on sometime to poll him on potential nominations. Jason nominated:
1) TSA for wasting $1.4 million on an IPAD app for airport arrows telling you right or left for which line for pat downs or body scanners (how wasteful!)
2) President Maduro of Venezuela- for his communist/Marxist policies and the hyperinflation and murders and corruption that big government is destroying Venezuela.
Weekend Links:
Thanks for listening! — Eric Dubin, independent financial/geopolitical analyst.https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=140&v=ymb9q41NxZQ
http://www.silverdoctors.com/silver/...n-more-silver/
Re: Is Silver Entering Phase II Bull Market?
Shanghai, Satanists and Celebration of Fire
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJacka...denjackass.JPG
By: Jim Willie CB, GoldenJackass.com
The theme of this article is the arrival of April, the most significant month on the Satanist calendar and the month with an extremely long list of celebrated assassination and mass murder events that they boast of. Some events are well-known to follow the April pattern, while others are not. The relevance to the financial world is immediate, when one considers that the Chinese have a planned launch of the Shanghai Gold Price Fix, as well as the introduction of the Shanghai RMB-based Gold Futures contract, the date arranged at April 19th. This date is right smack dab in the middle of the week marked by the Celebration of Fire. What an incredible insult to the banker cabal, replete with Satanists like uber-leader Rothschild, if the fiat paper currency system centered upon the USDollar is upended by China during mid-April! The temples might indeed be overturned that would catch King Solomon's attention. Any wresting of control within the Gold market would enable the price to rise, like to establish an equilibrium between supply & demand in the physical market. Refer to a doubled Gold price and a tripled Silver price suddenly. For perhaps 40 years or more, the Gold price has been set by paper contracts with claimed price discovery involved. However, no discovery is anywhere visible on any horizon, any arena, any window. It is a den of profound corruption upon which the entire USDollar platforms rests. The Chinese attack within the Gold market could hit Satanist bankers where they live, in the fire of mid-April.
The arrival of the Gold futures contract in Shanghai poses an additional risk for the Western banker cabal, a grand crime syndicate which extends to the energy firms, the military industrial complex, the big pharmaceutical firms, and the press networks. A real valid bonafide Gold contract which delivers physical gold would enable vast arbitrage to buy cheap in London and sell dear in China. Any acceleration in the arbitrage activity, combined with any sincere attempt to set the Gold Fix in a reasonable manner that puts equilibrium as priority, and the Western bankers will face the USDollar kicked to the curb and possible global boycott. The zinger factor is that the Chinese Interbank Payment System (CIPS) is ready. It serves as an alternative to the SWIFT bank transaction system. The little known fact (except to Hat Trick Letter clients) is that CIPS was successfully field tested in late February. It only lacks tight connection to the FOREX currency market, and to the Sovereign Bond market, in particular the USTreasurys. The demise of the USDollar is finally visible. The King Dollar Reign of Terror is soon to come to an end. One of the most shameful eras in modern financial history is coming to a close. The USDollar has turned toxic since QE was introduced, killing capital as quickly as foreign opponents are killed on the battlefield under false cause for war in its defense of the global currency reserve. The reserve status is going away, and with it the USEconomy on a credit card. A New Dollar stands at tremendous risk of a series of devaluations.
SIGNIFICANCE & COINCIDENCE OF APRIL
The list of nasty fiery events arranged during April in recent years is long. Be sure to read correctly, as the Jackass claims these were all murder events arranged by the cabal of Satanists. The insider word indicates that since 2011 the FBI has served as the new hired hand in organizing the motivated public criminal deeds, then in charge of the cover-up with news coverage in pure propaganda, finally in charge of arresting the patsy in an clever incrimination frame. Their motive is to create fear and trepidation among the public, to facilitate the Global Fascist State, but also to mix in some targeted destructions to serve their greater goals. In recent years, see the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995 which eradicated evidence against Clinton in his Fannie Mae thefts. Together with Papa Bush deeds, the thefts totaled $1.6 trillion, fully documented by auditor Catherine Austin Fitts (complete with failed murder attempts on her). See the Deepwater Horizon BP oil spill in 2010 (with direct participation by Halliburton thugs). The Halliburton team had acquired scores of on-shore drilling contracts before the ecologically violent deed that shut down the Gulf of Mexico. See the Waco Texas siege in 1993 by officers of the Alcohol Tobacco & Firearms agency. See the Aurora Colorado (Batman movie) public murder spree in 2012. See the Boston Marathon staged bombing in 2013. See the Texas West chemical plant explosion in 2014, actually forecasted by the Jackass in response to the state's formal request to the New York Fed for their gold reserves. These events all occurred in the month April.
Little do followers of the April incidence realize, but the trend pattern extends far back in history. The Satanists have been among us, plying their murderous trade, for centuries. Refer to the April assassination of Abraham Lincoln in 1865, handiwork from the London bankers who boasted of their deed in the major newspapers of London at the time. Refer to the sinking of the Titanic in 1912, with a clever hidden ploy by John Pierpoint Morgan to remove three important business rivals from the New York City scene, effectively kept out of the news. Refer to the assassination of Martin Luther King in 1968, surely the handiwork of the Langley robot crew.
Back three years ago, the Jackass wrote a public article that pointed out the extremely high odds that so many fiery explosive public death events would occur in April. The odds were calculated to be like several million to one, hence hardly random events. Each event should occur with only 1 in 12 chances in April, yet the great majority of such events occur in April. In fact, more such fiery death events of a public nature occur during April, versus all other 11 months combined. To be sure, the week of April 14-20 represents the most violent and tragic week in US history. It has a proximal cause tied to motive among the Satanists, who derive a sociopathic joy from fiery deaths of innocents. See Chron (HERE).
SATANIST CELEBRATION OF FIRE
They call the event Beltane, the infamous Celebration of Fire among the Satanists. Sadly, these sociopaths are organized. They dominate the entire collection of Western institutions. This sadistic venomous vile group has been exposed in many ways during recent years, to their dismay. They prefer that the society adopt their symbols and use them in seeming harmless ways like on clothing. But such is not the case. Rothschild has seen fit to decorate the city of Toulouse France with countless Satanist symbols in public places, a sure subliminal gesture. The Jackass recalls over a year ago a favorite actor James Woods departed Hollywood, claiming he would never do another film or series, sickened by the penetration of the Satanists in the entertainment business. Even Katie Perry has sold her soul for fame and fortune, with rumors that she had to volunteer as object for sadistic sex parties. The prevalence of their symbols reaches farther than ever before in recent memory.
Even political and religious figures are involved in the Satanic movement. Notice the Satanic hand signal, which is derived from the devil's horns, used by Obama, Hillary, but also the Pope Ratzinger (aka Pope Malevolent). This vile pope was the only papal leader in a millennium to be forcibly removed from his post, part of a paradigm shift and cleanup process. The climax of the cleanup process might have occurred with the Russian Patriarch met the Fascist Pope a couple of months ago, making an historical pact of secret deals. The sexual perversions of leaders go hand in hand with their Satanic practices. The links among politicians, central bankers, big Western bankers, big Western energy companies, the Vatican with their Black Nobility (aka Illuminati), the European Union Commission, Hollywood directors, and major Western corporations are very firm with a common theme of Satanic servitude and following. Related topics will not be delved into their practice of numerology or child abductions (like the Sandy Hook staged event) or DisneyWorld (its sovereign nation status to protect from missing children). The topic can spawn chapters in numerous directions.
PREVALENT SATANIST SYMBOLS
As innocent as Halloween and a popular favorite of Devil's Night for mischief, these Satanists enjoy murder, mayhem, war, chaos, and the production of widespread fear. Recall the closing ceremonies for the London 2012 Summer Olympics. It was loaded with Satanic symbols in a shocking display. But it caused a reaction. The following Super Bowl in February 2013 with a New Orleans setting was significant. The electricity supply was cut off at half-time when the long elaborate Satanic display was planned. Beyonce was angry. The sources indicate that the White Hats had endured enough of the Satanic public displays. Notice the obverse of the US$1 bill, with the Satanic symbols of a pyramid and eye. Notice the Proctor & Gamble logo with its Satanic symbols, the array of stars and crescent. The kicker is right under our noses, with the Pentagon being an embodiment of the Satanic pentagram. These symbols are there for all to see, that is for those who choose to look. Some point to the Denver Stapleton Airport for its nazi symbol in art work as well as facility layout, visible from the air. It is CIA West, and a known Satanic center.
The entertainment field has been a favorite target for Satanists. They can promote their beliefs and symbols in full view in movies, television series, music, and concerts. Their key players are Madonna, Lady Gaga, Katie Perry, Ozzie Osbourne, Marilyn Manson, Rihanna, Beyonce, Jay-Z, Nicki Minaj, Trent Reznor, among others. This is not simply a matter of style, but rather a Satanic infiltration with a dedicated following, a sure purpose, and a gathered following.
SEVEN BOWLS OF DEATH & PESTILENCE
The Biblical Prophesies cite that during the End Times, the earth will be attacked by Satanists. They will attempt to poison and destroy our world with seven bowls, a metaphor used to describe different avenues. Here is the Jackass interpretation of the details for projects currently underway. This is extremely disturbing.
1) Poison the AIR with chemtrails, a Rockefeller project closely associated with Agenda-21, whereby the air is filled with benzene and aluminum particles. The former is pure poison. The latter advances Alzheimer and Parkinson diseases, the radical rises already noted. The cover is global warming, a widespread ruse by the banker cabal to tax the air we breathe.
2) Poison the WATER with fracking procedures done by Halliburton, where toxic chemicals are injected into the water table. They are protected by USCongress laws on what is injected. Also the ocean is rumored to be contaminated by Halliburton also, where they systematically dump radioactive cesium off the California coast, only to blame the noted cancer rise on Fukushima. Other fracking firms do not dump additional toxins like Halliburton.
3) Poison the FOOD with Monsanto and their aggressive Genetically Modified Organisms (GMO) program. It is rumored to be an elaborate virus delivery system with designed infertility in humans just like with crops (no seeds in crop output). The pesticides also produced by Monsanto are associated with vast sweeping deaths of the global bee population.
4) Poison the MONEY with the US Federal Reserve monetary policy of Quantitative Easing, which is hyper monetary inflation in African style by any other name. The global reaction has been to bring the USDollar into a retirement and phase-out. The Jackass has been explaining for over three years that QE kills capital.
5) Poison the VACCINES by directly infusing them with the disease they are supposed to protect against, with a few zinger extra additives like mercury and formaldehyde. In recent reports, they have been found to include immune system suppressants.
6) Poison the ECONOMY with endless war, under the false flag of fighting terrorism, and under the ruse of fomenting color revolutions. The real motive is to interrupt the Russian energy supply to Europe, thus the Ukraine War, and to stop the Iranian gas supply to Europe, thus the Syrian War.
7) Poison the SOCIETY with the Arab refugee influx, all sponsored by the Western Elite leaders, with national laws all bypassed. Their passage is routinely paid by USGovt and Soros Foundation NGO organizations, but the Austrian Govt intelligence revealed the connection. This critical step aligns with the 1900 Pike Cabal designed plan for creating a world war of Christianity versus Islam. The Jackass correctly forecasted a violent ISIS-type event in August 2015 in a major European city. It happened with the staged Paris deadly event in September, the next month.
NEW SCHEISS DOLLAR & GOLD TRADE STANDARD
In time, expect an eventual refusal by Eastern producing nations to accept USTreasury Bills in payment for trade. The IMF reversal decision assures this USTBill blockade in time, and might accelerate the timetable. The United States Govt cannot continue on five glaring fronts of gross negligence and major violations. These violations have prompted the BRICS & Alliance nations to hasten their development of diverse non-USD platforms toward the goal of displacing the USDollar while at the same time take steps toward the return of the Gold Standard. The violations are:
1) to import finished goods and crude commodities, paying with IOU coupons
2) to commit multi-$trillion bond fraud in its big banks, done without legal prosecution
3) to do QE bond purchases in applied hyper monetary inflation, monetizing debt
4) to rig all major financial markets in favor of the primal USDollar
5) to engage in numerous regional wars to support the USDollar.
The New Scheiss Dollar will arrive in order to assure continued import supply to the USEconomy. It will be given a 30% devaluation out of the gate, then many more devaluations of similar variety. The New Dollar will fail all foreign and Eastern scrutiny. The USGovt will be forced to react to USTBill rejection at the ports. The US must accommodate with the New Scheiss Dollar in order to assure import supply, and to alleviate the many stalemates to come. The United States finds itself on the slippery slope that leads to the Third World, a Jackass forecast that has been presented since Lehman fell (better described as killed by JPM and GSax). The only apparent alternative is for the United States Govt to lease a large amount of gold bullion (like 10,000 tons) from China in order to properly launch a gold-backed currency. Doing so would open the gates for a generation of commercial colonization, but actual progress in returning capitalism to the United States. The cost would be supply shortages to the USEconomy, a result of enormous export increases to China. The colonization has already begun, with secret deals galore. As Ron Paul has stated, one cannot blame capitalism for the current failure, since we have had almost none!
The Gold price will find its true value and price over $10,000 per ounce. The Silver price will find its true value and price over $300 per ounce. In reaching these levels, the ratio will return to the 30-1 range. Several steps have been laid out by the Hat Trick Letter toward the return of proper price to precious metals. The major upcoming events will be exciting to watch unfold, one after the other, in an inevitable sequence away from fascism and concentrated uni-polar power, with a strong movement toward freedom and equitable systems with distributed power. The steps will each involve a quantum jump in the Gold & Silver prices. The process will take a few years, but might be breath-taking in speed once the process is begun. The steps involve:
- the critical mass of rejected USTBills in trade settlement, citing its corrupt roots and illicit monetary policy as foundation
- the return to the Gold Trade Standard and introduction of Gold Trade Notes as letters of credit, in replacement for a fair tangible payment system (no more IOU coupons)
- the recapitalization of the global banking system with Gold as primary reserve asset, so as to relieve the grotesque stagnation, insolvency, and dysfunction
- the seeking of equilibrium in Supply vs Demand in the new fair uninhibited market, with exclusive control removed from London and New York, and placed elsewhere like in Shanghai, Hong Kong, Dubai, and Singapore.
- the seeding of BRICS gold & silver backed currencies from participating nations within the Alliance (likely several with slight variation in features)
- the re-opening of the gold mine industry with some blue sky, and relief from the Evergreen element at Barrick
- the remedy toward owners of over 40,000 tons of rehypothecated and stolen gold in bullion banks across the world (primarily in Switzerland.
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1460342340.php
Re: Is Silver Entering Phase II Bull Market?
Can anyone answer why the black line slowly converges with the top of the red?
Attachment 8164
Re: Silver Phase Transistion
3 year old USD inflation adjusted now equals actual current Silver prices. Not sure that makes any sense or is actually true. USD inflation and silver price inflation rates are the same?
Re: Silver Phase Transistion
Re: Silver Phase Transistion
The gold-mining stocks have skyrocketed this year, radically outperforming every other sector.
Smart contrarians who bought them low late last year and in January have seen their capital doubled, tripled, and even quadrupled! But such blistering gains raise the ominous specter of crippling overboughtness, conditions preceding major toppings. Have gold stocks come too far too fast to continue their epic run?
Submitted by Adam Hamilton, Zeal:
The magnitude of recent months’ gold-stock surge is simply stunning. Between mid-January and the end of April, this sector’s flagship HUI NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index blasted 131.8% higher in merely 3.3 months! This was largely mirrored by the leading gold-stock ETF, the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF. GDX saw stupendous gains of 107.1% over this same span. Gold stocks have been on fire!
But naturally such fast gains have left this sector severely overbought by nearly every measure. That includes the moving-average convergence-divergence indicator, the distance of gold-stock prices above their 50-day moving averages, these same 50dmas’ gap over gold stocks’ 200dmas, and the lofty heights of gold-stock prices relative to their 200dmas. All these indicators also apply to gold-stock indexes and ETFs.
Any technician could easily make the case that gold stocks are positioned for an imminent collapse in light of their extremely-overbought technicals. In fact, that’s the only rational interpretation for analysts focusing exclusively on this sector’s current situation. But as always in the markets, broader context is absolutely essential. Making trading decisions without considering the bigger picture usually ends poorly.
The vast majority of market wisdom on overboughtness comes from major toppings. Extreme levels of overboughtness are famously seen after major bull markets running for years spark popular euphoria sucking in legions of new traders. If the gold stocks had just enjoyed a multi-year bull run to new record highs, and everyone was super-excited about them, then today’s extremes would be screaming sell signals.
But that’s not the case at all. Today’s extreme overboughtness comes after far-more-extreme anomalous secular lows. There’s no popular euphoria in gold stocks today, and certainly no major highs. Only a few months ago, no one beyond the most-hardened contrarians would even dare consider deploying capital in this left-for-dead sector. The current overboughtness was born out of crazy lows, not lofty heights!
Just like weather, the biggest price changes in the markets rapidly follow the greatest anomalies. The largest temperature shifts ever witnessed in weather data happen right after the most-unseasonable extremes. After near-record cold, the mean-reversion temperature swing back up to normal levels will be big and fast. Those resulting typical seasonal levels will be sustainable despite the extreme ramp bringing them.
Maintaining perspective in the markets is the key to overcoming the tyranny of the present over traders’ psychology, which usually leads to bad losing trades. When 2016’s incredible gold-stock surge is put back into the proper context of the months and years leading up to it, today’s extreme overboughtness has very different implications. Despite this sector rallying very far very fast, it is nowhere near topping.
In my decades of intense market research and speculation, I’ve found one of the best ways to measure how far how fast prices have moved is relative to their own 200-day moving averages. 200dmas aren’t static baselines that are soon rendered obsolete, they gradually evolve with price trends. And they work to thoroughly squelch the sometimes-serious volatility in prices, helping clearly delineate prevailing trends.
Many years ago I developed a simple trading tool called Relativity. It recasts prices as multiples of their own 200dmas, by dividing the former by the latter. When charted over time, these multiples tend to form horizontal trading ranges. They express the critical relationship between prices and their 200dma baselines in perfectly-comparable constant-percentage terms. Relativity actually quantifies “too far too fast”.
This first chart looks at the Relative HUI, or rHUI, in red. That’s just this leading gold-stock index’s close on any given trading day divided by its 200dma then. The actual HUI is superimposed in blue, along with some key technical lines including its 50dma, 200dma, and 2.5-standard-deviation Bollinger Bands. While gold stocks are extremely overbought, the context is the polar opposite from a major topping episode.
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On April’s final trading day last Friday, the HUI blasted 7.2% higher to 233.5. That stretched this index to an astounding 1.738x its 200dma, in other words this sector was nearly 74% above that key baseline! Such extremes are exceedingly rare, that happened to be an incredible 13.9-year high in the rHUI. Out of 3612 trading days since 2002, the rHUI only exceeded 1.7x on 13 of them. That’s a third of one percent.
And until last Friday, every single one of these extreme rHUI readings showing extreme overboughtness happened in May and June 2002. And that was indeed a major topping, the climax of the enormous 310.7% initial bull run in the first 18.6 months of gold stocks’ new secular bull. But interestingly even in that example, the HUI merely consolidated sideways from there before surging to major new highs in mid-2003.
But I was actively trading gold stocks way back then, and certainly remember the euphoria as the HUI hit that extreme overboughtness. This small contrarian sector was growing popular among mainstream investors, as the general stock markets were trapped in the final months of a cyclical bear which would slash the broad-market S&P 500 index 49.1% lower over 2.6 years. That was a real gold-stock topping.
Today’s situation is radically different. Back in mid-July 2015, an extreme gold-futures shorting attack crushed gold so the HUI plummeted to a brutal 13.0-year secular low by early August. Then it ground sideways near those extreme lows until mid-January, when support at 105 briefly failed. That stretched the gold-stock sector as measured by the HUI to extremely-anomalous apocalyptic 13.5-year secular lows!
That very week I wrote a comprehensive essay on those extreme gold-stock lows, highlighting that they were truly fundamentally-absurd. The gold stocks were literally trading at prices last seen in July 2002. But back then gold was trading near $305, and had yet to exceed $329 in its young secular bull. And that January 2015 day saw gold trading 3.6x higher near $1087! Those gold-stock levels were supremely irrational.
Considered the other way, gold had fallen to a deep 6.1-year secular low in mid-December on Fed-rate-hike fears that history proves were totally unfounded. The last time gold had hit that very same $1050 level, the HUI was 3.7x higher. The gold-stock prices in mid-January were ludicrous, as the markets seemed to be betting that gold miners could only sell gold for 3/11ths of its prevailing price! It was sheer insanity.
That was one of the greatest pricing anomalies we’ll ever witness in our lifetimes, fueled by truly mind-boggling levels of prevailing fear. And it was that ultra-anomalous downside extreme from which this massive 2016 gold-stock bull was born. This year’s sharp gold-stock surge to today’s near-record levels of overboughtness wasn’t born in euphoria, but utter despair. It’s a righteous mean-reversion price swing.
The dominant reason gold stocks have come so far so fast is their pricing in January was so ridiculous. And today’s stretched technicals screaming warnings of severe overboughtness are the direct result of those downside extremes. If gold stocks hadn’t plunged so far so fast last summer, then languished at such crazy lows until January, their technical situation would look far different today as this chart shows.
The HUI’s 50dma was incredibly low before this latest gold-stock buying erupted, and its 200dma was in an extreme downward trajectory. So any measures of overboughtness based off these key moving averages are bound to show extremes. 200dmas in particular are so slow-moving that new bull markets often show severely-overbought readings in their initial months until their 200dmas finally reverse north.
Provocatively this even happened in the broader stock markets back in 2009 as their mighty new bull was born from the ashes of 2008’s first stock panic in a century. Later in 2009 the entire S&P 500 stretched an extreme 20%+ beyond its 200dma, levels that would normally signal a massive imminent selloff. Yet heeding such sell signals would’ve been a colossal mistake, as the stock market’s new bull would run for years.
When prices start mean reverting higher to rebound out of extreme lows, technical indicators often flash dire warnings of extreme overboughtness. This happens in the initial months of major new bull markets that will power much higher on balance for years. So this particular post-bottoming environment emerging from major secular lows is the exception to the rules of overbought indicators. This is true in gold stocks too.
Before we dig deeper into severe overboughtness early in massive new gold-stock bulls, it is also very important to consider the HUI’s absolute levels today. If gold stocks were now trading near major secular highs, which would naturally generate euphoria, then their overboughtness would indeed have grave bearish implications. But the HUI merely hit a modest 19.9-month high last week, not a 20-year one!
Gold stocks last traded at these levels in late 2014, before a couple bouts of panic selling on extreme gold-futures shorting. All the HUI has done in 2016 is regain its uptrend channel enjoyed in late 2014 and the first half of 2015 before last summer’s anomalous breakdown exacerbated by that extreme gold-futures shorting attack. So in absolute terms, gold stocks remain pretty darned low in the grand scheme!
While the HUI was indeed up a scary-sounding 110.0% year-to-date at last Friday’s peak, it had still only rallied 42.3% since the dawn of 2015 and a minor 18.1% since early 2014. A mere 40%ish sector rally unfolding across 16 months or 20%ish over 28 months wouldn’t even warrant a second glance by any technicians. Considered in broader context, today’s gold-stock levels are practically yawn-inducing!
That’s even more evident zooming out from this many-months perspective to a secular many-years one. This final chart looks at the HUI and rHUI since 2008, encompassing the last major gold-stock bull. This sector more than quadrupled emerging from those anomalous 2008-stock-panic lows, soaring 319.0% higher in 2.9 years. And provocatively gold stocks were the most overbought in that bull’s early months!
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Back in early 2009 soon after gold stocks had started powering higher again, the HUI stretched up near 1.4x its 200dma multiple times. That’s fairly rare statistically too. Out of those 3612 trading days since 2002, the HUI only spent 154 above 1.4x its 200dma. That works out to 4.3%. I remember hearing the same arguments about gold stocks being dangerously overbought back in 2009 as well, portending a topping.
Yet much like today, by that point they had merely doubled on the way to a quadrupling. I just explained a few weeks ago why today’s gold stock bull is due for another easy double after already doubling by that point. The gold stocks looked very overbought technically in 2009 simply because they were mean reverting out of an anomalous downside extreme of major secular lows, moving averages hadn’t caught up.
Again 200dmas in particular take some time to turn. With calendar months averaging 21 trading days, a 200-day moving average encompasses fully 9.5 months of price action. So until a new bull market out of major secular lows passes the halfway point in this critical moving average, it still mostly reflects the downside price action leading into that secular low. 200dmas can’t keep pace with prices as bulls first ignite.
Thanks to their very gradual nature, it always takes some months for 200dmas to bottom, reverse, and turn north decisively. That lagging reversal period can’t reflect the intense buying common early in new bulls. Bull-market price trajectories generally follow a flattening parabolic path, like a ball being thrown up at a steep angle initially. Gains are fast in the first year or so, but then decelerate as the bull matures.
So somewhat paradoxically, the most-overbought levels in bull markets are usually seen in their first year. That was true of both gold stocks in their last bull, and general stock markets in theirs. Between 2009 and 2011, both HUI and S&P 500 Relativity multiples gradually moderated as those respective bull markets powered higher. By the times each peaked, they weren’t overbought at all on a technical basis!
With the exception of rare popular-mania blow-off tops, bull markets generally don’t die with readings of extreme overboughtness. Instead they gradually run out of steam as the supply of new buyers willing and able to commit more capital dwindles. So outside of that extreme mania situation, overboughtness has never been a good indicator of bull markets ready to give up their ghosts. It is actually an early-bull thing.
Still, today’s HUI way up at 1.74x its 200dma is far more extreme than the early-2009 overboughtness of 1.40x. But that’s misleading, a distortion from the technical lead-ins to both new gold-stock bulls. Back in late 2008, this sector’s secular-low extremes were very short-lived lasting mere weeks. That’s a sharp contrast from late 2015’s, which ran for 5.5 months. That long span of lows really dragged down the HUI’s 200dma.
Note in this chart how high the 200dma bottom was in early 2009 following late 2008’s fleeting extreme low compared to early 2016’s 200dma bottom after late 2015’s lingering lows. Since the HUI’s 200dma was dragged to anomalously-low extremes even by secular-bottoming standards as this year dawned, naturally the typical sharp early-bull gold-stock rally is going to stretch much farther above such lows.
And rather amazingly, 2016’s young new gold-stock bull was actually considerably less extreme than the one emerging from 2008’s stock panic! Back in late 2008 it only took the HUI 45 trading days, or 9 weeks, to double out of its extreme fear-drenched secular low. But in early 2016 the HUI took 57 trading days, more than 11 weeks, for that same initial double! Gold stocks advanced farther faster last time around.
So all gold-stock investors and speculators need to realize that the perceived extreme overboughtness of this sector today is misleading. Gold stocks have indeed come very far very fast in recent months, but they are nowhere near as overbought as the classic technical indicators suggest. Those very indicators remain heavily skewed by the abnormally-long period of gold-stock secular lows persisting late last year.
There is almost zero chance today’s extreme overboughtness heralds the end of this young gold-stock bull as some fear. In fact, just the opposite is true. The fact that gold stocks soared so far so fast in early 2016 to achieve severe overboughtness shows typical early-bull behavior. It suggests this new gold-stock buying is strong enough to persist for years, with capital inflows continuing to drive gold stocks higher.
That being said, overboughtness remains an important short-term indicator. Though May happens to be gold stocks’ strongest month of the year seasonally in bull markets, with an average HUI gain of 6.9% between 2001 and 2012, summer is coming. June and July are the weakest time of year for the entire precious-metals realm, the dreaded summer doldrums. Odds are gold stocks will drift lower as usual then.
So for investors and speculators worried about deploying more capital after such a blistering gold-stock rally, we may very well see better entry points towards late July if normal seasonals hold. While there is certainly no guarantee that normal market conditions will exist this summer with all the craziness in the markets this year, that’s what probabilities favor. A few-month consolidation would be very healthy for this bull.
Despite their extreme overboughtness and weaker seasonals ahead, the gold stocks remain radically undervalued relative to the prevailing gold price. That’s what drives their profits and thus ultimately their stock prices. At $1250 gold, the HUI would have to soar near 433 to merely mean revert to its post-panic average level relative to gold without overshooting. That’s more than a double even from this week’s levels!
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The bottom line is gold stocks are indeed absolutely overbought after skyrocketing in 2016. But this isn’t some dire bearish topping signal as feared. Technical overboughtness is actually common in young bull markets, since the moving averages haven’t yet had time to fully reverse and reflect the new trend. Severe overboughtness following major secular lows is actually a confirmation a new bull should run for years.
Gold stocks only look extremely overbought today because their recent major secular lows persisted for far longer than normal. That dragged their moving averages far lower than normal, greatly exaggerating recent reads on key technical indicators. But those will soon normalize. Gold stocks remain radically undervalued relative to prevailing gold prices today, so their mean reversions higher have a long ways to go.
Adam Hamilton, CPA
http://www.silverdoctors.com/gold/go...-far-too-fast/
